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A GREAT DEAL has been written and said about What is the the Millennium Bug as the twentieth century draws to a close. And a great deal has been done by governments and industries Year 2000 around the world to anticipate and eliminate potentially disastrous problems. But relatively little attention has been problem? paid to how the Year 2000 problem may affect both agricultural production and food processing, marketing and FOR YEARS many computers and computer programs have saved space by using only distribution systems around the world. two digits to represent a year – 98 for Like many parts of society, agriculture has become highly dependent on computers in 1998, for example. The first two digits were assumed to be 19. When the date recent years. Even small farmers who till their fields with ox-drawn ploughs probably changes from 31 December 1999 to rely on supplies produced in high-tech factories and transported thousands of 1 January 2000, that assumption will no kilometres over computer-controlled transportation networks.Their seeds and fertilizer, longer be valid. The consequences could their irrigation water and electricity, their credit and marketing facilities may all be be dire. Computers rely on dates to time stamp and sort files and data, to make vulnerable to Year 2000 computer problems.At least in the near term, the Millennium calculations and to initiate actions. Bug could prove to be one of the most dangerous pests threatening farmers, along with Problems have already started to occur the locusts and brown planthoppers they have battled with throughout the centuries. in many systems: The most severe problems for agriculture are likely to occur not in the fields computers in food processing plants and warehouses have ordered tonnes of themselves but in upstream and downstream activities – in the production and delivery food to be destroyed after calculating of essential inputs and services and in the processing, distribution and marketing of that the period during which they could farm produce. These problems could have severe consequences both for agricultural be consumed safely had ended almost 100 production and for national and household food security. years ago, in 1900; cash registers in supermarkets have rejected food purchases on cards that appear to have expired a century ago. In one way or another,Year 2000 computer problems threaten almost all of the supplies There is a substantial risk that around the turn of the millennium similar and services essential for agricultural production.These include: problems will occur simultaneously all fertilizers and pesticides – the productivity of many high-yielding crop varieties depends around the world, affecting both on regular applications of petrochemical fertilizers and pesticides.The production of these individual transactions and global chemicals could be interrupted by breakdowns in their factories due to embedded chip systems. malfunctions.And the transportation and financing of shipments to developing countries could also be disrupted, putting agricultural production in many of the intensively farmed “Green Revolution” areas at risk. seeds – many farmers in developing countries depend on purchase and delivery of highly commercialized seeds. Disruptions to inventory, shipping and transportation systems at a critical time of year for seed deliveries could jeopardize crop seasons for some farmers. transport – these essential inputs reach the fields at the end of a long journey by ship, rail and truck. Although most Year 2000 transportation worries have focused on the risk to air traffic control systems and air safety, the shipping, rail and trucking systems also rely heavily on computers for scheduling. One recent report noted that “the maritime industry is just wak- ing up to the fact that navigation and shipboard systems are in jeopardy of failing or mal- functioning”. This could pose problems for food shipments and also for the productivity of some fisheries. irrigation systems – many large-scale irrigation sytems depend on computers to regulate the flow of water. The World Bank warns that “the Year 2000 problem may have serious implica- tions for developing countries where large investments have been made in building dams and Y2K flyer.1-web edition 22/4/99 12:57 pm Page 2

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and embedded other important infrastructures aimed at meeting water requirements in agricultural regions”. energy – agriculture is energy-intensive. Irrigation pumps, tractors, milking equipment and many other pieces of farm machinery need electricity, gasoline or diesel fuel to run. Electrical systems generating plants and transmission grids, oil and gas refineries, fuel pipelines and transport sys- tems are all highly computerized and highly vulnerable. If and where they fail, agricultural pro- IN ADDITION to computer hardware and duction will suffer. software, Y2K problems could also banks and financial systems – farmers large and small frequently need credit to purchase affect a significant percentage of an estimated 10 to 25 billion “embedded seeds, fertilizer and other inputs. This leaves them vulnerable to the threat of Y2K problems in systems” – microprocessors built into the highly computerized and interconnected banking and financial systems, where local failures all kinds of equipment and appliances, could trigger national, or even global, chain reactions and temporarily dry up flows of credit. from cameras to nuclear power plants. Experts have estimated that up to 250 million embedded systems failures could occur as a result of Year 2000- Year 2000-related computer problems could also bring disruptions in almost any aspect related problems. In the worst case, an of food processing, marketing and distribution. The risks are greater in developed coun- embedded system failure could cause another Chernobyl or Bhopal disaster. tries with highly integrated industrial systems. But Y2K problems could also affect devel- Even if catastrophe is averted, studies oping countries through their impact on: warn that embedded system problems transportation – just as farmers depend on transport to receive necessary could result in “a lack of electricity, inputs, they rely on trucks, trains, ships and planes to deliver their perishable a working telephone system, radio, drinkable water, food, and fuel for produce to processing plants and markets, at home and around the world. heating and cars and all other forms of Most experts pinpoint transportation as the weakest link in the food chain. In transportation”. testimony before the United States Senate, the chief economist of Deutsche Bank Securities asked pointedly, “Will the railroads be able to operate at full capacity to transport grains, livestock and finished-food products? Will ships move freely in and out of ports to deliver the imported and exported foods that are so important to global trade?” processing plants – like other industrial activities, food storage and pro- cessing plants rely heavily on equipment that may be vulnerable to failure of either comput- Y2K PROBLEMS will certainly not occur in er control systems or embedded processors. Even if the food processing activity itself is not all places, nor will they occur simultaneously at midnight on 31 December. disrupted, flaws in computer systems responsible for managing inventory and shipments In fact, experts point out that Y2K-related could create production and delivery bottlenecks. failures started to appear many months ago, telecommunications – farmers, traders in agricultural commodities and government min- will increase in frequency and severity istries rely on national and international telecommunications links to deliver a steady flow of during the months leading up to and immediately after the turn of the year, and information on weather, prices and shipping. “If the phones don’t work,” one Year 2000 will continue to crop up well into the year expert asked, “what might be the impact on food production, distribution and exports?” In 2001 and beyond. many countries, the computerized telephone switching systems are considered among the most likely to fail. marketing systems – trade in agricultural commodities depends on massive computer sys- Worldwide tems, high-speed exchanges of vast quantities of data and transport of produce across coun- System Only a portion tries, continents and oceans. Food marketing and distribution systems are highly vulnerable Failures of IT system to breakdowns in telecommunications, financial systems and transport. “If you don’t know failures will who needs grain,” asks biologist Geri Guidetti, who moderates an Internet forum on Y2K occur at the Millenium and agriculture, “if you don’t know what global prices are ... what’s going to happen to the Embedded systems Rollover normal grain commerce?” spike

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The Fear 2000 problem Disruptions in agricultural production, processing and marketing could threaten income IN SOME CASES, fear of the Millennium for farmers, food supplies for families and essential foreign exchange resources need- Bug may pose a greater danger than the ed by governments to finance imports of food and agricultural inputs. Both food secu- computer problems themselves. Panic- rity and future agricultural production could be affected. buying and hoarding of agricultural The possible impact of Year 2000 problems on agricultural production, inputs and food could create severe, artificial shortages and price trade and transport poses a particular threat to: distortions. countries that depend heavily on exports of agricultural commodities as a As K. Poulsen warned in an article in major source of income; and Wired magazine, “the dissemination of misleading, partial, erroneous or countries that rely on food imports and food aid to meet the needs of their speculative information about Y2K populations. risks may cause social distress. the The key to minimizing the impact of the Year 2000 problem, whether at the public may stockpile food or withdraw level of a smallholding farmer, a large food industry enterprise or a national savings from banks. The potential government ministry, lies in giving priority attention to a three-part strategy effects of a “new millennium” paranoia can be crippling and endanger the that includes: public order”. assessment of areas of risk and vulnerability The best antidote to panic and paranoia remedial and preventive action to address the most severe threats is information. Providing accurate, timely and sensible analysis of contingency planning and preparation to adapt to problems for which solutions may be potential problems will allow farmers impossible or unaffordable. and other key participants in food production and distribution to protect against – rather than create – short- At the national level, urgent action must be taken to mobilize awareness within govern- term problems of prices and supplies. ments, as well as among farmers and the food industry, of possible threats to agriculture and food security. Priority must be given to identifying: 1. locally controlled equipment and processes essential to food production and distribution that may be affected by the Millennium Bug. These might include national transportation, electricity, banking and telecommunication TO PREVENT OR MITIGATE Year 2000-related problems in agriculture and food systems. availability, farmers, the agricultural 2. external sources of essential supplies and services that may suffer from and food industries and governments all Year 2000 problems, including sources of agricultural inputs, financial services need to focus priority attention and and food imports. adequate resources on the problem. Once vulnerable points have been identified, research and analysis will be Action must be taken to: inventory critical functions and required to determine the degree of risk, the potential impact of Y2K-related evaluate risks of failures system failures, and the costs and time required for replacement or repair. On identify suppliers and delivery the basis of that analysis, plans and priorities can be developed to minimize channels for all critical inputs, both the risk and the impact of Year 2000 problems. obtain information on Y2K compliance and evaluate risks In the case of locally controlled equipment and systems, research and analysis may be assess options, time required and required to determine both the levels of existing Y2K compliance and the costs of improv- costs for: ing it. Problems in banking systems, for example, might not only disrupt flows of short-term 1. correcting problems; credit but could have an impact that would be felt over a much longer period. 2. replacing equipment or suppliers; or At the same time, external sources of essential supplies and services should be required 3. preparing contingency plans to provide full reports on Y2K compliance. Steps should be taken to make external parties and materials to cope with aware of their responsibilities to provide full compliance information and continuity of ser- likely failures vices. Contracts and procurement rules should be modified to include assurances of Y2K adopt approaches that will eliminate or minimize the impact of failures compliance and insurers should be pressed to clarify their responsibilities in the event of assign clear responsibility and Y2K-related failures. priority resources to implementing the agreed plans. Y2K flyer.1-web edition 22/4/99 2:06 pm Page 4

Millennnium Bug resources In the case of relatively small computer systems and applications, the simplest and most effective way of eliminating Year 2000 problems may often prove to be the replacement A VAST and constantly growing body of of non-compliant equipment. Certainly, the costs of software revision, which can be con- information and resources is available siderable, should be weighed carefully against the costs of purchasing new systems that to help understand and respond to the may offer significant performance advantages as well as being certified Y2K compliant. Millennium Bug threat. But this approach clearly cannot be applied in the case of systems that are either The World Bank has prepared an externally controlled or prohibitively expensive. Similarly, modifying existing systems and extensive Y2K ToolKit designed to help software to make them Y2K compliant may not represent a viable option because of the developing countries develop and very limited time remaining before 1 January 2000. Modifying systems can be extremely implement national Y2K plans. This ToolKit and a great deal of other expensive and time-consuming. Many large corporations started work years ago to information is available from the achieve Y2K compliance, contributing to a total expenditure of some US $600 billion, as Bank’s Internet site at: estimated by the Gartner Group. In the process, qualified Y2K experts have become http://www.worldbank.org/y2k/ increasingly scarce and extremely expensive.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) also has a special Internet site dedicated to the Year 2000 problem and developing countries Under these circumstances, farmers and governments in developing countries may not be at: http://www.undp.org/info21/new/n-y- able to remedy or avoid some Year 2000 problems, particularly those that may erupt in disc.html international financial, production and transportation systems. In many cases, their most realistic approach may be to concentrate the limited time and resources available on Many governments have created Internet developing and implementing contingency plans to cope with failures that they do not sites that offer both information and examples of successful approaches to have the means to prevent. Even these approaches may entail significant costs and there- addressing Y2K problems. A list of fore require careful analysis and planning. these sites is included in the World Key elements in such plans may include diversifying sources of supplies and services in Bank’s Y2K ToolKit mentioned above. order to reduce the impact of failure by any individual supplier. Other steps may include

In addition, numerous corporations, adopting procedures to ensure that failures are identified promptly and that alternative organizations and experts have channels for delivery of essential goods and services are in place and ready to be activat- published information both in print ed if and when computerized systems fail. and on-line. The World Bank site In some cases, without exacerbating the "Fear 2000 problem" of hoarding and panic- includes a page providing links to a vast assortment of on-line information buying, farmers and governments may decide to review the level of their food security at: stocks and inventories of essential agricultural inputs. http://www.worldbank.org/y2k/pages/ "Should farmers be encouraged to stockpile the basic inputs they need to produce english/elinks.htm food in 2000?" economist Ed Yardeni asked pointedly in testimony before the United States Senate. "Should we be ready to provide food assistance to nations overseas that have major Y2K-related problems with their food supplies?" Those same questions need to be asked and answered at all levels, from the farm to the government ministry.