Is the Millennium Bug Really Just a Fly in the Ointment?

by G. Richard Fisher Y2K — only two letters and a with M. Kurt Goedelman mers will begin no later than 1999.’’2 number, but it has some churches, He also says that it is impossible to ministries and individual Christians make computers compliant. reeling with paranoia. This three- A FRIGHTENING PLOT LINE North has pressed his conspiracy character abbreviation simply stands Doomsday is just a few short theory ideas to the utmost degree. His for the year A.D. 2000. However, the months away, they say. This massive web site contains hundreds of articles fear and trepidation arise not so much shutdown will throw the world into warning of the impending dangers. from the ushering of a new millen- upheaval. Some have scenarios that He has further put his reputation on nium, but from what some say will be include the president declaring mar- the line: a computer apocalypse on Jan. 1, tial law or even the notion that these ‘‘I have been writing for over a 2000. failed computers will usher in Arma- year on this with all the skill I Due to enormous costs, at the ad- geddon, setting the stage for the have. I simply cannot get it vent of computers nearly 40 years Antichrist and the end. Most of the across to all of you or even to ago, software programmers conserved doomsday prognosticators have a most of you. I am never at a loss on memory and data storage by using book or program for sale on how to for words, but I am at a loss for only two digits for the year-date code. get ready, stockpiling food, water, persuasion. I have been unable to For example, an entry for the year gold, and in some cases, guns and persuade the vast majority of my 1965 simply became 65. However, the ammunition. readers, after almost two years, that if the division of labor col- number for the year 2000 will con- The scenarios of what will happen lapses, we will lose millions of found older computers as the 00 will nationally and even worldwide, range lives. Joe Boivin, who was the dramatically from catastrophic be read as 1900, since these computers Y2K director for Canada’s Impe- doomsday predictions to total disre- read dates as two-digit numbers. rial Bank and Commerce until he gard. There are various scenarios in Other computers, equipped with fail- quit, estimates that a billion safe designs, will see 00 as an faulty between. people will die in 2000. He limits input and simply terminate opera- One extreme, worst-case scenario is his discussion to the Third tions. presented by theonomist Gary North. (continues on page 14) This, we are told, will confuse, North, on his web site, tells us that, cripple and shut down millions of ‘‘At 12 midnight on January 1, 2000 (a computers and computer-driven Saturday morning) most of the world’s mainframe computers mechanisms. According to alarmists, a will either shut down or begin monumental disaster is coming with spewing out bad data.’’1 It massive computer shutdowns affect- will create the greatest disas- ing every strata of society, including ter since the great plagues of governments, financial institutions, the 14th century. North utilities, hospitals, telecommunica- claims that there is no stan- tions, airline travel and on and on. As dardized approach to fixing the final minutes of Dec. 31, 1999, tick this problem. In fact, he asserts away, millions of computers world- that computer programmers wide will be knocked out, sending will vacate their jobs and business and the economy spinning head for ‘‘safer places’’: ‘‘Will and crashing into catastrophic global they quit? I’m betting my life chaos. on it. The exodus of program-

4 · The Quarterly Journal January-March 1999 Y not 2 freaK COLLAPSE IN THE YEAR 2000. where the blackout lasts so long (continued from page 4) COMPUTER CHAOS: Bank records money loses it meaning. (So far, and transactions are lost! Defense the shrillest doomsayers admit- World. I think we could lose half systems fail! Social Security is wiped tedly aren’t computer experts.) ... a billion in the urban West.’’3 out! Nuclear power plants melt down! The truth is, no one knows what Power grids fail - throwing the world will happen. This event is un- Chuck Missler, in his ‘‘Supplemen- into total darkness! COMPUTERS precedented; there’s no ‘last time’ tal Notes’’ booklet, ‘‘The Millennium WILL CRASH WORLDWIDE!’’5 As to compare it with.’’8 Bomb’’ Y2K, provides ‘‘Your Personal with Orson Welles’ War of the Worlds Dr. James Dobson had a panel of Action Plan’’ and under his ‘‘Family broadcast in the 1930s, these people ‘‘experts’’ on the subject on the Oct. Logistics’’ gives the following: seem to care little about the fear and 21, 1998, edition of his Focus on the ‘‘Power, Water, Food (Ammo?); Barter confusion they are generating. Items: food, medical, et al. Location: Family radio broadcast. It was a cross- depart urban areas; seek rural areas, SOME R NOT 2 SURE section with both extremes and the smaller towns, self-reliant neighbors, middle ground between the extremes. On the other extreme stands Nicho- etc.’’4 Dobson’s own telling statement was, las Zvegintzov, a well-known com- ‘‘No one knows.’’ While it is true that Hal Lindsey and Cliff Ford co- puter expert and co-founder of Soft- no one really knows for sure, there are hosted what was labeled as an ‘‘Inter- ware Maintenance News. In his now some things we can know for certain. national Intelligence Briefing’’ televi- famous article, ‘‘The Year 2000 as sion program: ‘‘Y2K Special Report: Racket and Ruse,” Zvegintzov asserts: So, is it the end of civilization as we Facing Millennial Midnight.’’ In it the know it or is it nothing to be con- ‘‘Dealing with the Year 2000 pair laid out their own worst-case cerned about? Is it doomsday or problem is a simple software scenario calling the Y2K effect ‘‘the distraction? task. ... Solving the Year 2000 millennial bug’’ and ‘‘millennial problem is an exercise for the APOCALYPSE bomb’’ and said that it could ‘‘unravel software novice.’’6 R POPPYCOCK? civilization.’’ Although Trinity Broad- casting Network sponsored and aired Dr. Quentin Schultze, professor of On the television program Dragnet, the program (and has never been communications at Calvin College in Sgt. Joe Friday used to say: ‘‘The facts known for its discernment or a hesi- Grand Rapids, Mich., says: ma’am, just the facts.’’ Only facts, hard tancy to promote the bizarre or sensa- ‘‘Ambiguity produces a broad facts, will help us here. Speculation, tional), it was quick to issue an range of opinions, and Y2K is an wild claims, doomsday scenarios, the opening disclaimer that the views of ambiguous phenomenon. You marketing of books, dried food, and Lindsey and Ford did not necessarily can predict the weather reason- even guns is not the answer, just facts. represent the views of TBN. ably well, but not perfectly, be- We need to have informed opinions and make informed choices. Toward the end of the program cause there are too many factors there is a hedging and some ‘‘may- involved. The same is true of the Even if the worst-case scenario were bes’’ and ‘‘perhaps,’’ as well as asking Y2K problem: There are too around the corner, should a Christian people to use discernment. However, many factors involved. There’s change anything he or she is doing? the overall impression from the bulk no one who can tell you precisely And wouldn’t it be a time of unprec- of the show will no doubt create what’s going to be affected. The edented opportunity to witness and paranoia and depression for some. sense I have is we are going to be reach out, not retreat and hole up And then there’s the blazing commer- moderately inconvenienced for a somewhere? Our Savior’s marching cial at the program’s conclusion for fairly short period of time. Soci- orders in Matthew 28:18-20 do not Lindsey’s latest volume, Planet Earth: ety is not going to grind to a change just because the going gets halt.’’7 The Final Chapter. ‘‘This is the very rough. Paul and the other Apostles best insight the Lord has ever given Scott Pinzon, president of Pinpoint faced misery and hardship and even me on prophecy. And it shows how, Marketing Communications, writes in death but made no extraordinary in chronological order, things are a recent issue of the Christian Book- provisions as they plodded on preach- coming together rapidly, to show that sellers’ Association magazine: ing and teaching. the return of Christ is very near,’’ ‘‘We can probably rule out a The Church has faced annihilation Lindsey boasts. He has been making perfect transition to the year 2000 and death in past generations but the same declaration for over 25 years. — after all, the U.S. government stood its ground. In the face of the Yet, Christians do not find them- has to update Internal Revenue massacres of Nero, Peter and Paul did selves alone on the doomsday band- Service and Social Securities not advise the Church to go out and wagon. As expected, the supermarket computers, and when did they stockpile swords. What we do know tabloids are jumping on the sensa- ever bring a project in on time? for sure is that even if our country tional aspects and at least one is But we probably also can rule faces loss, it does not change what the reporting in bold headlines; ‘‘WORLD out extreme ‘meltdown’ scenarios Church ought to be doing. Psalm 46

14 · The Quarterly Journal January-March 1999 still stands. God is our refuge and years is already compliant and cannot new marketing technique? Is this not strength even if the Earth is removed. fail in terms of Y2K. The government dishonest if the fear is really not In fact, the worse it gets, the more is fast correcting the problem as well. based on reality and hard facts or opportunities for the Church of Jesus The recently passed national budget even omitted facts? The AARP fears Christ. included large amounts of funds for that scams may be the worst obstacle Y2K compliance. which will ‘‘feed the greed and dis- But what do the facts show? Many honesty of scam artists who are al- banking institutions already have be- Apple Computer executives have ways on the lookout for new ways to gun communicating with their cus- released information that Macintoshes pry money out of the unsuspecting.’’15 tomers. This writer’s bank has in- have been compliant since their re- formed its customers that it and all its lease and will be unaffected by any The AARP’s concern is right on the branches have been working since date change. In the letter from my mark. With the doom and gloom 1997 to make its computers compliant bank mentioned above, the following scenarios being projected — both in and will be fully compliant by the end is offered: ‘‘Apple Computers assures Christian and secular forums — it of 1998. So I know that this bank and that their Macintoshes are immune to opens a rich harvest for the unscrupu- all its branches are not planning to the Millennium Bug.’’11 lous. Con artists will have a field day fail. They, as well, are monitoring and In the area of air transportation, the preying on the elderly and unin- assisting all of their service providers, problem is being dealt with from start formed. The climate is right for swin- companies and correspondent institu- to finish. Aircraft manufacturer Boe- dlers to bilk the unsuspecting out of tions, including legal and public utili- money, credit card information, bank 9 ing has been working and continues ties. to work to bring itself into Year 2000 account data and other important Preparations for those who buy into compliance. Since dates do not affect financial elements, all under the aus- the doomsday schemes are also un- airplanes in flight, only the schedul- pices of being able to ensure personal derway. For example, ‘‘The Federal ing of arrivals and departures, the Air Y2K readiness. The claims of assis- Reserve plans to have an extra $50 Transport Association (ATA) is ad- tance and remedy by the dishonest billion on hand in case worried dressing the ground problems of fuel, may well be the real millennium Americans decide they would rather lights, ground transport and travel disaster. have more cash in their pockets than agencies. The Federal Aviation Ad- in their bank accounts.’’10 ministration (FAA) claims to be doing FACTS 2 CONSIDER well in regard to the Y2K problem Keep in mind that hundreds and On a local level, in a personal and are stating that air traffic safety conversation with Charles W. Jarvis, will not be affected. hundreds of banks and financial insti- executive director and chief operating tutions have failed in the last two officer of the Meridian Health System, The Social Security Administration decades and yet there was no major I was assured that Meridian has been (SSA) has been working on its com- disaster that occurred. Three hundred aggressively addressing and solving puters since 1989 and assures that failings alone occurred in 1988 and its Y2K problems, and will have full payments will continue uninter- 1989. If the Y2K changeover disrupted compliance long before 2000. Merid- rupted.12 And even though Medicare a few hundred smaller banks it would ian directly affects me because it is an is not as far along as the SSA, a not cause a ripple. We have been organization of four major hospitals spokesman for the Health Care Fi- assured that the financial services in the four cities around me including nancing Administration (HCFA) gives industry has been working on the the city in which I live. Jarvis says the complete assurance that ‘‘care will not problem.16 Remember also that the whole health care industry is on the be denied Medicare beneficiaries be- financial stability of some major coun- 13 case. cause of Y2K.’’ tries has collapsed or faced near-ruin In a personal conversation with a In 1997, the Federal Reserve’s Board in recent years. And the effects of computer troubleshooter for Bristol- of Governors told the House Commit- these foreign crises has not caused Meyer-Squibb, PFO was assured that tee on Banking and Financial Services personal or national catastrophes in the problem is being addressed and that compliance was crucial. So it the United States. appears that the problem is being solved by that organization. So the facts show that many agen- addressed there as well.14 Addition- cies including Social Security, the It makes sense just from the stand- ally, gas and electric company spokes- Federal Deposit Insurance Corpora- point of human self-interest that cor- men nationally attest to the fact that tion (FDIC), the Veterans Administra- porations — either major or support- they have been addressing the com- tion (VA), Internal Revenue Service ing — in the United States and even puter glitch and are working on (IRS), and banking institutions, have worldwide, would not just sit on their compliance. hands waiting for their computers to taken seriously the Y2K ramifications and crash and the end to come. WHO STANDS 2 GAIN are vigorously addressing the Y2K issues. FROM THE SCARE? Computer expert after computer ex- Even The John Birch Society, not pert all confirm that any computer Is the creation of fear and the offer one to shy away from conspiracy made and purchased in the last two of a product to alleviate that fear a theories, takes a more or less benign

January-March 1999 The Quarterly Journal · 15 view of the ‘‘millennium bug’’ 7. In case there should be a few We cannot get preoccupied or side- doomsday predictions. Its Internet ar- minor computer glitches locally, be lined with doomsday prognostications ticle is fact-filled, well-documented ready for a long New Year’s weekend or predictions of disaster. We must be and balanced, which is a real sur- by having on hand a few extra dollars about our Father’s business. No doubt prise.17 We must give credit where in cash and a few extra of your the ‘‘millennium bug’’ clatter will credit is due. prescription drugs. Tests have shown come and go like so many other fads though that the glitches can be (the Belgium Beast, backward mask- 9 POINTS 2 PONDER cleared in hours, if not minutes. ing, Bible codes, the predictions of Edgar Weisanant and Harold Camp- C.S. Lewis once suggested that truth 8. For your own peace of mind, ask ing, to name only a few). One can only can often be found between two people who provide your services, wonder if the propagators of paranoia extremes. His wisdom applies here such as banks, druggists, utilities com- are deceived or are just deceivers. although on a scale from 1 to 10 with panies, hospitals, doctors, and so on, 10 being doomsday, the facts indicate what they are doing to become com- Endnotes: that we may hit 1 or 2 with small pliant — that is ‘‘Y2K ready.’’ You local inconveniences and not much 1. Gary North, ‘‘Gary North’s Y2K Links will find that the problem is being and Forums, The Year 2000 Problem: The more. What the facts show is this: addressed, if not already solved. Year the Earth Stands Still.’’ Available on 1. There is a problem. Everyone who 9. Regardless of the inconveniences, North’s web site: http:// needs to be aware of the problem www.garynorth.com. See also his article, the Church of Jesus Christ should still ‘‘Awake Now! Blind Man’s Bluff in Y2K,’’ seems to be aware. The problem is be going about its business of win- The Midnight Herald, Summer 1998, pp. being addressed and solved at a rapid ning others and making disciples, 4-5. pace. even using negative events to press 2. Ibid. home the claims of eternity (read the 3. David Becker, Religion & Politics Digest 2. Any analysis of the problem must web site, ‘‘A Billion Lives Lost, If Things be based on hard facts and evidence. entire epistle of 1 Peter). There can be some great evangelistic opportunities Go Fairly Well,’’ RPD 3396, 10/3/1998. The problem should not be overstated 4. Chuck Missler, ‘‘The Millennium Bomb’’ here, so we should not even think of but discussed realistically. Y2K, Supplemental Notes booklet, pub- retreat. lished by Koinonia House, pg. 22. 3. Many of the extreme doomsday The discernment periodical, Calvary 5. Weekly World News, October 13, 1998, views are based on incomplete facts, pg. 24. Contender, warns: ‘‘We are told the flawed information or missing data. 6. Nicholas Zvegintzov, ‘‘The Year 2000 as Internet is a-buzz with scare-narios, North says that the solution is impos- Racket and Ruse,’’ American Programmer and, indeed we as Christians should sible, which flies in the face of all the magazine, February 1996, pg. 3. be concerned as the time approaches, 7. Pat Shellenbarger, ‘‘Y2K,’’ The Grand facts and all the hard work to achieve but not panic. Extreme fear itself Rapids Press, Oct. 25, 1988, pg. J2. compliance. The computer program- could become a greater problem than 8. Scott Pinzon, ‘‘Millenium Bomb of mers are still working hard and dili- Y2K. ... Stockpile if you wish ... but Y2K,’’ CBA Marketplace, November 1998, gently to correct the problem. They pg. 40. let’s trust our God, use common haven’t headed for safer ground as 9. Ocean Federal bank newsletter, August sense, and not help dire predictions North asserts. The doomsday reports 1998, pg. 3. become self-fulfilling prophecies.’’18 and reporters are only as good as the 10. Pat Shellenbarger, ‘‘Power added to mash Y2K bug,’’ The Grand Rapids Press, information they have or give. Selling We need patience and perseverance, Oct. 25, 1998, pg. A18. solutions and a vested interest should not paranoia. Let’s remember the 11. Ocean Federal newsletter, op. cit., pg. make us wary. If they were really word of the prophet Habakkuk who 4. interested in helping us, why not just faced a real catastrophe and holo- 12. Robert Lewis, ‘‘Beating the Bug,’’ give away the answer? caust: AARP Bulletin, October 1998, pp. 22. 13. Ibid., pg. 20. ‘‘Though the fig tree should not 4. The problem has been and is 14. Ibid., pg. 22. blossom, And there be no fruit being vigorously addressed and dealt 15. Ibid. with to such a degree that we can be on the vines, Though the yield of 16. David Wessel, ‘‘Year 2000 Is Costly, assured that there is no major disaster the olive should fail, And the But Not Catastrophic,’’ The Wall Street or catastrophic collapse looming. fields produce no food, Though Journal, May 4, 1998, pg. A1. the flock should be cut off from 17. Dennis J. Behreandt, ‘‘An Inquiry Into 5. Some smaller businesses and the fold, And there be no cattle The Veracity of ‘Millennium Bug’ Dooms- banks could have short disruptions, in the stalls, Yet I will exult in day Predictions,’’ May 29, 1998. Available which is unlikely, but even a small the Lord, I will rejoice in the God on The John Birch Society’s web site, national recession is out of the ques- of my salvation. The Lord God is http://www.jbs.org/y2k.htm. See also Beh- tion. reandt’s article, ‘‘Millennium Mayhem,’’ my strength, And He has made available at: http://www.jbs.org/tna/1998/ 6. There may be a few bumps in the my feet like hinds’ feet, And vo14no19.htm. road and maybe even some minor makes me walk on my high 18. ‘‘The Y2K Scare,’’ Calvary Contender, disruptions but not a ‘‘Chicken Little’’ places’’ (Habakkuk 3:17-19, Oct. 1, 1998, cited in The Christian News, scenario. NAS). Oct. 5, 1998, pg. 2. g 16 · The Quarterly Journal January-March 1999