Y2K flyer.1-web edition 22/4/99 12:57 pm Page 5 # A GREAT DEAL has been written and said about What is the the Millennium Bug as the twentieth century draws to a close. And a great deal has been done by governments and industries Year 2000 around the world to anticipate and eliminate potentially disastrous problems. But relatively little attention has been problem? paid to how the Year 2000 problem may affect both agricultural production and food processing, marketing and FOR YEARS many computers and computer programs have saved space by using only distribution systems around the world.## two digits to represent a year – 98 for Like many parts of society, agriculture has become highly dependent on computers in 1998, for example. The first two digits were assumed to be 19. When the date recent years. Even small farmers who till their fields with ox-drawn ploughs probably changes from 31 December 1999 to rely on supplies produced in high-tech factories and transported thousands of 1 January 2000, that assumption will no kilometres over computer-controlled transportation networks.Their seeds and fertilizer, longer be valid. The consequences could their irrigation water and electricity, their credit and marketing facilities may all be be dire. Computers rely on dates to time stamp and sort files and data, to make vulnerable to Year 2000 computer problems.At least in the near term, the Millennium calculations and to initiate actions. Bug could prove to be one of the most dangerous pests threatening farmers, along with Problems have already started to occur the locusts and brown planthoppers they have battled with throughout the centuries. in many systems: The most severe problems for agriculture are likely to occur not in the fields # computers in food processing plants and warehouses have ordered tonnes of themselves but in upstream and downstream activities – in the production and delivery food to be destroyed after calculating of essential inputs and services and in the processing, distribution and marketing of that the period during which they could farm produce. These problems could have severe consequences both for agricultural be consumed safely had ended almost 100 production and for national and household food security. years ago, in 1900; # cash registers in supermarkets have rejected food purchases on cards that appear to have expired a century ago. In one way or another,Year 2000 computer problems threaten almost all of the supplies There is a substantial risk that around the turn of the millennium similar and services essential for agricultural production.These include: problems will occur simultaneously all fertilizers and pesticides – the productivity of many high-yielding crop varieties depends around the world, affecting both on regular applications of petrochemical fertilizers and pesticides.The production of these individual transactions and global chemicals could be interrupted by breakdowns in their factories due to embedded chip systems. malfunctions.And the transportation and financing of shipments to developing countries could also be disrupted, putting agricultural production in many of the intensively farmed “Green Revolution” areas at risk. seeds – many farmers in developing countries depend on purchase and delivery of highly commercialized seeds. Disruptions to inventory, shipping and transportation systems at a critical time of year for seed deliveries could jeopardize crop seasons for some farmers. transport – these essential inputs reach the fields at the end of a long journey by ship, rail and truck. Although most Year 2000 transportation worries have focused on the risk to air traffic control systems and air safety, the shipping, rail and trucking systems also rely heavily on computers for scheduling. One recent report noted that “the maritime industry is just wak- ing up to the fact that navigation and shipboard systems are in jeopardy of failing or mal- functioning”. This could pose problems for food shipments and also for the productivity of some fisheries. irrigation systems – many large-scale irrigation sytems depend on computers to regulate the flow of water. The World Bank warns that “the Year 2000 problem may have serious implica- tions for developing countries where large investments have been made in building dams and Y2K flyer.1-web edition 22/4/99 12:57 pm Page 2 Y2K and embedded other important infrastructures aimed at meeting water requirements in agricultural regions”. energy – agriculture is energy-intensive. Irrigation pumps, tractors, milking equipment and many other pieces of farm machinery need electricity, gasoline or diesel fuel to run. Electrical systems generating plants and transmission grids, oil and gas refineries, fuel pipelines and transport sys- tems are all highly computerized and highly vulnerable. If and where they fail, agricultural pro- IN ADDITION to computer hardware and duction will suffer. software, Y2K problems could also banks and financial systems – farmers large and small frequently need credit to purchase affect a significant percentage of an estimated 10 to 25 billion “embedded seeds, fertilizer and other inputs. This leaves them vulnerable to the threat of Y2K problems in systems” – microprocessors built into the highly computerized and interconnected banking and financial systems, where local failures all kinds of equipment and appliances, could trigger national, or even global, chain reactions and temporarily dry up flows of credit. from cameras to nuclear power plants. Experts have estimated that up to 250 million embedded systems failures could occur as a result of Year 2000- Year 2000-related computer problems could also bring disruptions in almost any aspect related problems. In the worst case, an of food processing, marketing and distribution. The risks are greater in developed coun- embedded system failure could cause another Chernobyl or Bhopal disaster. tries with highly integrated industrial systems. But Y2K problems could also affect devel- Even if catastrophe is averted, studies oping countries through their impact on: warn that embedded system problems transportation – just as farmers depend on transport to receive necessary could result in “a lack of electricity, inputs, they rely on trucks, trains, ships and planes to deliver their perishable a working telephone system, radio, drinkable water, food, and fuel for produce to processing plants and markets, at home and around the world. heating and cars and all other forms of Most experts pinpoint transportation as the weakest link in the food chain. In transportation”. testimony before the United States Senate, the chief economist of Deutsche Bank Securities asked pointedly, “Will the railroads be able to operate at full capacity to transport grains, livestock and finished-food products? Will ships move freely in and out of ports to deliver the imported and exported foods that are so important to global trade?” processing plants – like other industrial activities, food storage and pro- cessing plants rely heavily on equipment that may be vulnerable to failure of either comput- Y2K PROBLEMS will certainly not occur in er control systems or embedded processors. Even if the food processing activity itself is not all places, nor will they occur simultaneously at midnight on 31 December. disrupted, flaws in computer systems responsible for managing inventory and shipments In fact, experts point out that Y2K-related could create production and delivery bottlenecks. failures started to appear many months ago, telecommunications – farmers, traders in agricultural commodities and government min- will increase in frequency and severity istries rely on national and international telecommunications links to deliver a steady flow of during the months leading up to and immediately after the turn of the year, and information on weather, prices and shipping. “If the phones don’t work,” one Year 2000 will continue to crop up well into the year expert asked, “what might be the impact on food production, distribution and exports?” In 2001 and beyond. many countries, the computerized telephone switching systems are considered among the most likely to fail. marketing systems – trade in agricultural commodities depends on massive computer sys- Worldwide tems, high-speed exchanges of vast quantities of data and transport of produce across coun- System Only a portion tries, continents and oceans. Food marketing and distribution systems are highly vulnerable Failures of IT system to breakdowns in telecommunications, financial systems and transport. “If you don’t know failures will who needs grain,” asks biologist Geri Guidetti, who moderates an Internet forum on Y2K occur at the Millenium and agriculture, “if you don’t know what global prices are ... what’s going to happen to the Embedded systems Rollover normal grain commerce?” spike Pre 1998 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Y2K flyer.1-web edition 22/4/99 12:57 pm Page 3 The Fear 2000 problem Disruptions in agricultural production, processing and marketing could threaten income IN SOME CASES, fear of the Millennium for farmers, food supplies for families and essential foreign exchange resources need- Bug may pose a greater danger than the ed by governments to finance imports of food and agricultural inputs. Both food secu- computer problems themselves. Panic- rity and future agricultural production could be affected. buying and hoarding of agricultural The possible impact of Year 2000 problems on agricultural production, inputs and food could create severe, artificial shortages