Imprensa internacional sobre Angola Maio - Agosto 2001 Nicholas Shaxson Here are some of the things we wereplanning to say: This last mission effectively had a dualrole – it was a regular article IV mission, also with a mandate to assess theSMP. Is this the correct way to describe it? YES The SMP technically finished at the end of June, and it has indeed expired, but the government has asked the IMF to wait until October before making its conclusions. As a country with a negative record on transparency and the adoption of economic reforms, the staff-monitored program was a way to establish a better track record on these areas and pave the way for discussions on a program supported with a loan from the Fund. It now appears that such track record is yet to be established, and that unless there is concrete progress on the inflation front and stronger results on program implementation and on transparency measures during the next few months, discussions on a PRGF program will look increasingly remote. The “inception reportâ € for the diagnostic study and the first quarterly report were delivered in May, I understand. When do you expect the second quarterly report? The second quarterly report is expected to be produced this month , but it will take a few more months until the Ministry of Finance will be able to use the model. It is important to note here that, as with any sophisticated tool, the willingness and ability of the user (i.e. devote resources and take it seriously) to take advantage of the tool will be crucial. The audit of the BNA’s accounts for 1999 –should have been delivered by April but in fact it is now only expected to be delivered to you this month. Correct. The BNA audit for 2000 – this may start by the end of the year ( with a possible audit for 2001 beginning some time in the firsthalf of next year. I would take out this last part, it is a bit speculative at this point) In addition to the BNA audit and the oil diagnostic,there is also a project at the central bank, supported by UNCTAD, to reconcile, unify , and make publicly available data for all of Angola’s public andpublicly guaranteed debt, including the oil-collateralised debt. I am told by others that the $269m debt limit described in the memorandum in February has now been raised, and variousother requirements (like inflation targets) have been relaxed. Is this true?Can you say what changes have been made to the targets? For the past (i.e. March and June 2001, there have been no changes on the limits on the external debt, or any other quantitative benchmarks, including inflation. When evaluating the se quantitative benchmarks, the adjustors (see below ) need to be taken into account and then one can see the results. Foreign exchange reserves targets were met,though this was largely achieved through exceeding borrowing limits. However,the IMF has not yet formally concluded that borrowing limits were breachedunder the SMP . THe borrowing limits appear to have been breached, and foreign reserve targets may also have been missed because of an adjustor described in the technical memorandum of understanding (see MEFP at our website) whereby the reserves are adjusted for various deviations, including excesses in the foreign borrowing limits (otherwise many of the targets could be met by additional borrowing). Voice of America said extra-budgetaryoperations reached 20% of GDP, though it did not say which period it wasreferring to. Is this correct? It seems quite high. If correct, which periodwould they be referring to? There is uncertaintly about the size and nature of these expenditures, but they appear to be very large (reaching at times up to 20 percent of GDP) not just recently but ongoing during the 1990s. The Ebonet story below described “um buracode 250 milhões de dólares de pagamentos feitos pelo BNA à margem do tesouronacionalâ € – is this correct? I take it this refers to payment orders withoutproper authorisation from the treasury. Which period does it refer to? We can distinguish between two types of extra- budgetart outlays, one type is recently identified quasi-fiscal expenditures carried out by the central bank; those are being quantified and are expected to be passed to the treasury. The other type are unexplained expenditures carried without the proper authorization from the treasury ( but not clear what they are or who carried them out) . This type of expenditures appear to be large. Neither of these operations had been approved or carried out with formal approval of the treasury. Some performance contracts have been signed with public enterprises, though there has otherwise been little progress on privatisation. There is a 5-year privatization plan that has been approved by the council of ministers , but it has not been yet fully agreed with the Fund and the World Bank as specified in the MEFP. ( the government intends to use performance contracts to improve control and management in a number of public companies ). Some special customs exemptions for groupssuch as the armed forces have been removed. Has this happened according to therequirements under the IMF? It is not clear that all exemptions (except those contemplated on international accords) have been removed as specified in the gov. program and whether the one on the armed forces is yet in effect. The Min Fin should provide clarification as to what they plan to do with the exemptions Marketable medium-term central bank bonds are being used as part of an effort to move towards indirect methods of controlover the money supply. Currently, monetary control is being achieved throughdirect mechanisms such as ceilings on the domestic assets of the bankingsystem. The macro-economic climate is still far from stable enough for aproperly functioning market in these instruments to develop, however, and onlyparastatal operators have reportedly been involved in buying them. The amountsbeing traded are still small. The treasury seems to be planning for the issuance of treasury bills to cancel part of the stock of of domestic debt arrears. Another part will be settled in cash but the government wants to negotiate this on a one to one basis with the creditors and pay depending on whether they are willing to commit investments in the "productive sectors" Any comments on the above would be welcome.Also, here is the other story that I found today. In addition, I have adocument on a Brazilian loan this year which you may or may not have seen. Ifyou would like a copy, please send me the correct address and I will post it. Best wishes, Nicholas Shaxson As with the above, that is you treat this in deep background, prospects remain uncertain. There has been some progress in a number of areas during the last year, but program implementation has been somewhat defficient even on areas where good judgement and politital will would have sufficed. Key issues like good record-keeping, transparency, and accountability in the use of public finances are crucial. The country's problems are inmense and varied, and can only be addressed with a decisive set of policies. It remains to be seen if the political leaders want to take this route or continue with the practices of the past and just flirt with market reforms OPOSIÇÃO DIZ QUE COMUNIDADE INTERNACIONAL ESTA A PRECIPITAR-SE AO ENVIAR MISSÕES A ANGOLA PARA AVALIAÇÃO DE CONDIÇÕES PARA A REALIZAÇÃO DE ELEIÇÕES 07/08/2001 As Nacoes Unidas vao enviar no proximo mes uma missao a Angola para analisar questoes relacionadas com o processo eleitoral. Segundo o representante especial do secretario-geral das Nacoes Unidas, Mussagy Jeichande, que falava no final de um encontro com uma delegacao do consorcio americano para o fortalecimento de processos politicos, a missao vai tambem abordar com as autoridades angolanas os contornos do Fundo para a Paz e a Reconcliacao Nacional. Mussagy Jeichande disse que “ neste momento nao existem ainda ideias feitas sobre as eleicoes” em Angola, salientando que a missao da ONU que em Setembro se deslocara a Angola “fara uma primeira aproximacao de modo que aquele organismo internacional possa pronunciar-se com maior autoridade sobre o pleito eleitoral”. Determinados sectores politicos nao colhem com simpatia esta movimentacao da comunidade internacional sobre questoes relacionadas com eventuais eleicoes. O dirigente da Frente para a Democracia, Filomeno Viera Lopes, considera que existe uma certa precipitacao por parte da comunidade internacional em relacao a esta questao e com propositos obscuros, assim como uma subestimacao aos partidos politicos da oposicao. Filomeno Viera Lopes Defende a necessidade do estabelecimento da paz por via do dialogo antes das eleicoes, de modo que haja a livre circulacao de pessoas e bens e as populaces possam votar em seguranca. A delegacao do consorcio americano para o fortalecimento de processos politicos manteve ja encontros com varios dirigentes do governo e representantes de partidos politicos da oposicao no quadro da avaliacao das condicoes para as proximas eleicoes. DP 010807 LUANDA NEGA “BURACOS” NA INDÚSTRIA DIAMANTÍFERA Um documento do Governo angolano a que a Voz da América teve acesso explica porque as autoridades de Luanda rejeitam sugestões segundo as quais o seu país continua a ser uma das fontes dos chamados “diamantes de conflicto”. O documento datado de Outubro do ano passado, diz que isso já não ocorre porque a UNITA entrou em colapso. Nele lê-se que as forças armadas angolanas recuperaram o controlo de todo o país. Analistas descrevem esta afirmação como absurda porque até mesmo a imprensa controlada pelo Estado continua a noticiar a acção dos rebeldes.