V12 N41 Thursday, June 22, 2006 GOP defiant (but worried)

By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - The defining moments at the “Party of Progress” came late Tuesday morning. Word was filtering through the convention hall that the Indiana Supreme Court had ruled, 4-0, against the plaintiffs on the Major Moves lawsuit, which included Justices Ted Boehm and Frank Sullivan. But speaker after speaker rose to the dais with- out a word. Didn’t they know? It included Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman, who offered a stout defense of Major Moves, but passed up the opportunity to break the news to del- egates. Sources told HPR she didn’t want to depart from her prepared text. It was a classic missed opportunity. When Convention Chairman Ed Simcox finally broke the news, it brought a standing ovation, even from the toll road county delegations. Hoosier Republicans appeared to show resolve during their two-day convention, with U.S. Rep. Mike Pence and treasurer candidate Richard Mourdock urging U.S. Rep. Mike Pence speaks with GOP Executive Director Jennifer delegates to defend “Little Round Top” with a bayonet Hallowell at the GOP convention Monday. (HPR Photo by Brian A. charge. "We hold the high ground, but beyond the slope, Howey) forces are gathering. They think they can come up AND in 1994, could be lost. We may be Little Round Top. If we take it away. There will be ! This hilltop is hold on to Congress, we may hold it here." ours." But as HPR filtered through the various delega- Pence picked up on the Civil War theme, saying that with three Hoosier congressional seats in play, "We Continued on page 3 could be the place where the Republican Majority, minted

The party of no (ideas)

By JENNIFER WAGNER INDIANAPOLIS - Riddle me this: There’s a bunch of Republicans in the room, and they’ve all managed to find themselves in the same lonely corner. What do they do? Attack! The retooled yet eerily repetitive Republican mantra for 2006 seems to be that Democrats are the party of “no.” Personally, I’ve “I don’t know that anyone could never had a problem with people who have slipped through.” stand up and say “no” to short-sighted - Child Services Commissioner James policies, lackluster Payne, after it was revealed that a quarter of leadership and for- his former employees in Marion County had profit government. criminal records at the Juvenile Detention But that’s just me. Center, to the Indianapolis Star HOWEY Political Report Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 22, 2006

I’m not one to debate a plan of action if someone’s trying to steal my purse, either: “No. Give that back. It belongs Bosma-Fuldauer gets traction p. 3 to me.” INSIDE Hoosiers have a lot to say Features Schoeff: Hill opposes Iraq timeline p. 4 “no” to this year. They have a gover- nor who’s more interested in selling Bayh votes for Levin amendment p. 5 the state than running it. They have a President and members of Congress Howey: The Iraq Index p. 7 who’ve mired us in federal debt and a war we can’t figure out how to end. Columnists: Weidenbener, Colwell p. 8 And they have problems of their own that aren’t being addressed: Horse Race: Gregg for governor? p. 9 a dearth of good jobs; the inability to get quality health insurance; an underfunded education system; and a The Howey Political Report is The Howey Political Report property tax system that still needs to published by NewsLink Inc. It PO Box 40265 be revamped. Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265. was founded in 1994. Democrats have ideas about www.howeypolitics.com how to fix these things, and they’re Brian A. Howey, Publisher [email protected] willing to work across party lines to Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington do what’s best for the people of this Indianapolis Office: 317-506-0883. Writer Indianapolis Fax: 317-254-0535. state. Mark Curry, Washington Writer Meanwhile, the only arrow left Washington, DC Office: 202-256-5822. Jack E. Howey, Editor Business Office: 317-254-0535. in the GOP quiver has a bit of a dull tip. Subscriptions: ©2006, The Howey Political Report. So, for the sake of open $350 annually HPR via e-mail; All rights reserved. Photocopying, Internet debate, let me ask a question: Repub- $550 annually HPR & HPR Daily Wire. forwarding, faxing or reproducing in any licans, what exactly is it you stand for? Call 317-254-0535. form, in whole or part, is a violation of Are the most important is- federal law. sues affecting Hoosiers right now gay marriage, prayer at the Statehouse and reproductive rights? Where’s your nesses and funded transportation proj- are ready to start the conversation, jobs plan? How about a plan to fund ects without selling our public assets. I but for some reason, Republicans are education and infrastructure that know you’ll find it hard to believe, but nowhere to be found. doesn’t involve selling and privatiz- they’re the ones who said “no” to us. Chances are they’re just ing everything? Maybe you’d like to Americans currently live in huddled in that same corner trying to propose sending our loyal soldiers to a country overseen by a man who think up the next distraction. another area of the world without a doesn’t just say “no” to compromise, v clear strategy. Or you could just keep ideas and external feedback, he claps cutting funding for social services and his hands over his ears and screams, higher education. That seems to be “Go away! I’m not listening!” working out well. The GOP probably will beat See, Republicans don’t want the “no” drum right through the No- you talking about their policies. They vember elections. And it’s worked for know folks aren’t fond of what they’ve them in the past. But something tells been doing, and they can’t afford to me Hoosiers have grown wise to the let the other side start a debate on the fact that no matter how much Repub- issues. licans bleat, the wolf they want you This past session, Republi- to see is really just a Golden Retriever can lawmakers in the Indiana House that’s long overdue for a bath. refused to entertain proposals that, for There is a definite need for example, would have created a health bipartisan cooperation and discussion care pooling program for small busi- in politics right now, and it’s high time someone leads the way. Democrats HOWEY Political Report Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 22, 2006 tions, we found more vulnerability. Northeastern Indiana Bosma-Fuldauer race gains traction Republicans are concerned about Dr. Thomas Hayhurst’s challenge to U.S. Rep. Mark Souder. State Rep. Tom House District 88: Republican: House Saunders and House Speaker Brian Bosma are now facing Speaker Brian Bosma. Democrat: Susan Fuldauer. 2004 spirited challenges. SD41 nominee Greg Walker was on the Results: Bosma 23,289, floor Monday “mending fences.” Gordon (L) 2,132. 2006 There were dozens of conversations like this one: Forecast: Fuldauer has “How’s it going?” polling that shows Bosma “Well, you know, we’re hanging in there.” is potentially vulnerable on There was good news. Gov. Daniels, away in two issues: the $4 to $1 Japan, said of the Supreme Court decision: “This is a taxpayer financed legis- sound decision with historic positive consequences: tens of lator pension plan, and thousands of jobs, billions of dollars of new investment in education. To date, most Indiana, and a better Indiana Toll Road as well.” of the attention on legisla- Karl Rove was orchestrating a defense of the tive perks has centered on war in Iraq, taking it to the “cut and run Democrats” even the health care for life program that Bosma ended in the while poll after poll showed voters were seeking some type House last February. That issue was largely responsible for of endgame. Daylight-saving time was generally getting the defeats of Sens. Bob Garton and Larry Borst, and State good reviews. Congressional Republicans received a 74- Reps. Markt Lytle, John Frenz and Ron Liggett. Bosma has page Pentagon briefing arming the four vulnerable Hoosiers said he was unaware that the program was put in place in -- Reps. Mike Sodrel, John Hostettler, Chris Chocola and 2001 and 2002, Souder -- with the notion that setting deadlines or losing a claim Demo- Iraq would “send a message of weakness” at the very time crats dispute. The Iran and North Korea are getting trigger happy with nukes. pension perk has This morning Sen. Dick Lugar voted against the Levin not been widely amendment, Sen. voted aye. used against The convention seemed to lack energy without incumbents, but Gov. Daniels. He offered the most compelling words in a look for Fuldauer video message. He told the delegates that the progres- to use it against sive GOP faces a party "with no comparable vision at all." Bosma. The poll- Daniels said Democrats are "struck mute by the question, ing suggests that 'What are your plans?'" issue could pack Daniels continued: "From the very outset they the same kind of scoffed at our appeals for bipartisanship. "Their answer to punch that the every new idea has been the same: No; hell, no; and by health care perk the way you're a bad person for having suggested such House Speaker Brian Bosma cited “cour- did. The other a thing." He urged the GOP to stay positive heading into age” at the GOP Convention. (HPR Photo) problem for Bos- the fall. "One mean and negative party is one too many," ma is education. Daniels said. Earlier this week, Republican Chairman Murray Clark told the the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation released a report crowd at the Indiana Convention Center, “Let me start by that revealed a 73 percent Indiana graduation rate. That, saying what a difference two years makes. It was a great along with a majority of Indiana schools flunking President victory, but Election Day 2004 was not the end, it was the Bush’s No Child Left Behind program, could spell problems beginning.” for the Speaker. Two speakers have been upset in modern The resolve of the party on the issues didn’t appear history: J. Roberts Dailey, largely over the lottery issue, and to be suffering. Many of the Republicans HPR talked with Michael K. Phillips, who was washed out in the 1994 tidal felt confident they had made the right decisions on issues wave. Given the anti-Republican, anti-incumbent dynamic like Major Moves. But there was a certain resignation that shaping up, we will be keeping an eye on this one. In his the politics, particularly on gas prices and the war, were Tuesday convention speech, Bosma heralded his caucus for about to spin events beyond their control. their "courage" in passing the controversial Major Moves House Speaker Brian Bosma recounted the story of plan that could cost the party control of the lower chamber the slain Union flag bearer at “the massacre at Fredricks- in November. Status: LEANS BOSMA. v burg” in yet another Civil War story. “It is a battle for the future,” Bosma said. “Lose the House? That’s not going to happen.” v HOWEY Political Report Page 4 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 22, 2006 Wednesday. It was postponed until today. Hill opposes timeline Hill is separating himself from Sodrel by criticizing the way that the Bush administration handled the lead up for Iraq withdrawal to the war and its aftermath. He said that the Pentagon lied to him during briefings prior to the invasion of Iraq in 2003, By MARK SCHOEFF JR when Hill held the seat that Sodrel won in November 2004. WASHINGTON--Former Democratic Rep. Baron Sodrel voted in favor of the House resolution Hill was expected to issue a statement today opposing a but is not approaching Iraq as a partisan issue, a spokes- timeline for pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq, a position that man said. “He wasn’t out to score political points on Iraq,” puts him at odds with some members of his own party and said Cam Savage, Sodrel’s chief of staff. “He sees this as aligns him with 9th CD incumbent Republican Rep. Mike liberty (for Iraq).” Sodrel. Hill believes that a decision to pull out of Iraq “He doesn’t believe a politically set withdrawal date should be based on sound military and political intelligence, is good public policy,” said according to O’Connor. Leav- Mike O’Connor, Hill’s lead ing before Iraq is stabilized consultant. “We’re commit- would make it vulnerable ted to a path in Iraq that to falling into anarchy and we have to pursue until it becoming an incubator for ter- is resolved. There would be rorist groups, as Afghanistan consequences that would was in 2001. come out of our withdrawal Although the leader of from Iraq right now that al-Qaeda in Iraq was killed in would be negative a U.S. airstrike two weeks, the in his eyes.” insurgency continues, with Iraq is vexing Hill’s daily bombings, kidnappings party. Rep. John Murtha (D and killings. Two U.S. troops - Pa.) and Sen. John Kerry who were separated from (D - Mass.) have both their unit recently were con- called for a timeline for firmed dead on Wednesday, withdrawal. The Senate after having been tortured by this week is considering their captors. a Kerry resolution that is But the administration, and U.S. Rep. Baron Hill (right) chats with Michael O’Connor, one of splitting the party in the many members of Congress his top political consultants, at the Indiana Democratic Convention chamber. Some Democrats who travel to the region, also earlier this month. (HPR Photo by Brian A. Howey fear that supporting a stress that the country is deadline would open them making political and security to Republican criticism that progress. Still, the consistent they want to “cut and run.” stream of bad news has hurt Republicans. Last week, the House passed an Iraq resolution Democrats have been roiled, too. A significant 256-153 that drew support from 42 Democrats. It por- part of its base is stridently opposed to the U.S. presence in trayed Iraq as being the frontline in the “global war on Iraq. A Hill campaign event in Bloomington two weeks ago terror” and declared that it is “not in the national security that was supposed to focus on Medicare was transformed interest of the United States to set an arbitrary date for the into a forum about Iraq by the Bloomington Peace Action withdrawal or redeployment of United States Armed Force Coalition, according to a June 12 story in the Indiana Daily from Iraq.” Student. The group is seeking a U.S. pullout from The heated debate became partisan, with the Iraq. Republicans accusing Democrats of lacking a plan to com- But that sentiment isn’t reflected across the 9th bat terrorism. House Mi-nority Leader Nancy Pelosi called CD, according to a Democratic official. “When you get away it “another vacuous (Republican) resolution.” O’Connor said (from Bloomington), more people come down on the side that Hill likely would have supported the measure while that you can’t just pull out, you can’t just set a date,” said having misgivings about the wording. Mike Jones, 9th CD Democratic chairman. The debate has been difficult because of the com- Bloomington is probably the most liberal part of plexity of the situation on the ground in Iraq and the mixed the sprawling district. The vast rural areas and suburban emotions expressed by voters. Hill, who has been grappling Cincinnati and Louisville tend to be more conservative. with the issue, was supposed to release his statement on But the Democratic crosscurrents have put Hill HOWEY Political Report Page 5 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 22, 2006

adrift on Iraq, according to local Republicans. “What’s Bar- said. “Sometimes the difficult answer to give to a political on Hill’s position today,” said Glenn Murphy, Clark County question like this is to say there isn’t a simple answer.” GOP chairman. “He’s taken several. Baron has a tendency Perhaps voters in the district aren’t demanding to stick his finger in the wind and go with whatever the an answer. “I really don’t hear a lot about it,” said Jones. “I prevailing mood is. In that respect, he’s not real different hear more about gasoline prices and the economy.” from John Kerry. And people in this district rejected John When asked to define the top issue in the district, Kerry pretty heavily.” Murphy was quick to answer. “Immigration, immigration, O’Connor disputed that Hill is tacking to the politi- immigration,” he said. “People are angry about cal winds. “If that were the case, the easiest thing for him immigration and they have anxiety about gas prices.” v to do is to say, ‘I support withdrawal of our troops,’ “ he Debate over Iraq will pessimistic about the war. Any common ground? shape Dem platform Yet it is possible that today’s vote might eventually bring Democrats closer together as they openly air differ- By MARK CURRY ences and seek common ground. WASHINGTON - For months now, U.S. Sen. Evan Senate Democrats by and large are critical of the Bayh has insisted that the Democratic Party must assert prosecution of the war and both amendments propose its national security credentials if it is ever to regain the U.S. operations be scaled back. But the party’s leadership Congress or White House. Today may be the day. is opposed to an amendment offered by Sen. John Kerry Today, the Senate was expected to vote on a pair (D-Mass.) that calls for establishing a fixed date (July 2007) of amendments sponsored by Democrats that call for the for troop departure. The leadership is supporting instead U.S. to begin a withdrawal from Iraq. Both are opposed a less specific, non-binding resolution proposed by Sens. by the control- Jack Reed (D-RI) ling Republican and Carl M. Levin Party and there (D-Mich.). As noted is little chance in the Washington either would pass. Post, their amend- But the debate ment calls for the is certain to play president “to begin a defining role in a ‘phased redeploy- this year’s midterm ment’ of U.S. troops elections and pos- by the end of this sibly even impact year. But it does not the run-up to the specify how quickly 2008 presiden- the drawdown tial race (Bayh should proceed or voted for the Levin when it should be amendment). completed.” Repub- If any Democrat in licans have re- the Senate knows mained largely what voters expect unified and on- “If you ask me why we lost the last presidential election, I’d say more than anything from their represen- message. They else, it was because of our perceived problems with national security, broadly defined, tatives in Washing- say the opposition and the war on terror, more specifically,” Sen Bayh said during a recent discussion ton concerning Iraq, party is propos- about national security. (HPR Photo by Mark Curry) it’s Evan Bayh. In ing that America this year alone, he “cut and run” from has frequented New Iraq by imposing an “arbitrary” timeline for withdrawal. Hampshire and Iowa and has also met with fellow Demo- Democrats, on the other hand, are divided about when and crats in Georgia, Michigan, Florida, California, Indiana and how the war should end. As a result, they have as yet been North Carolina. His vote will be closely watched by numer- unable to communicate a strategy that appeals to the wide ous interested parties. range of voters who have indicated they are increasingly Bayh has established his own credentials on Iraq over the past few years. He supported the 2003 invasion, a HOWEY Political Report Page 6 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 22, 2006 vote that more recently has earned him the wrath of some surrender in the war on terror. And, he will face complaints in his party. from within the party concerning his initial support of the “I did what I thought was right at the time based war. But perhaps somewhere along the line today’s debate on the facts as I understood them at the time,” Bayh told will prompt Democrats to succeed in crafting a message Insider in February of this year (see on Iraq that is agreeable to many in its famously splintered HPR, April 13). “It turned out some of those facts weren’t base. accurate, so of course you’d make different decisions.” Why the party lost Called for Rumsfeld to resign About a month ago Bayh joined a widely publicized About two years ago he made headlines by criticiz- conference on national security sponsored by the Progres- ing what he termed the administration’s mishandling of the sive Policy Institute. war and calling for the immediate resignation of Secretary “If you ask me why we lost the last presidential of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. But it was at a speech this election, I’d say more than anything else, it was because February, when he injected the phrase “tough and smart” of our perceived problems with national security, broadly into the debate, that the senator began to be widely recog- defined, and the war on terror, more specifically,” he said nized for his comments on national security (Schoeff, HPR then. “And so that is a place that we need to get to. We Daily Wire, Feb. 3). can be both good on domestic policy but also strong and “George W. Bush’s saying he wants the 2006 elec- smart on national security policy. The two must go hand in tion to be about national security is like Herbert Hoover hand.” proudly claiming that the 1930 election should be a refer- “God forbid there might be something in this endum on the economy,” Bayh said in the widely reported country that will remind the American people that it is a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Stud- dangerous world. And we need parties and leaders who are ies. prepared and capable of dealing with it, not a world as we “[T]here is absolutely no question the war has wish it is - as we wish it was, even though we work toward been prosecuted with stunning incompetence,” he said. that objective - but a world as it is that regrettably has evil “We never had enough troops to secure that country. It’s people in it who wish us ill, and we have to be prepared... obvious they had no plan for winning the peace.” to deal with that.” HPR’s Schoeff wrote at the time that Bayh said a “tough and smart” approach to Iraq would “establish To visit New Orleans tomorrow benchmarks for success, a timeline for progress, account- Sen. Bayh is scheduled to leave tomorrow to visit ability for results and candor about how we are doing.” New Orleans, where he will meet with local officials to It was on ABC’s This Week that Bayh let it be known he discuss the federal government’s emergency response had come to the conclusion that there was “no military to the Hurricane Katrina disaster and to hear comments answer” to Iraq (Howey, HPR Daily Wire, April 17). about subsequent funding issues. The senator’s office also indicated he will meet with owners of small businesses and Need for deadline others in keeping with Bayh’s role on the Banking, Housing “There may be a political solution, so yes, I think and Urban Affairs Committee. v we need to give [the Iraqi government] a hard deadline for making their political decisions,” Bayh said. “If they Revolution in the Senate don’t do that, there’s nothing we can do to help them. By focusing on the security solution, perhaps we can avoid the chaos of a civil war.” HPR Publisher Brian Howey noted that Bayh said a deadline for troop withdrawal “needs to be a private discus- sion” with Iraqi leaders, who should be told “If you don’t make the hard political decisions, we are going to leave at a time and manner that is most convenient for us.” However he voted today, the senator will have plenty of opportunity in the months ahead to elaborate HPR’s complete his position. His next scheduled appearance is June 30 at a fundraiser in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District, and he coverage of the most certainly will be visiting Iowa and New Hampshire Garton, Borst upsets again over the course of the summer. He will have to coun- ter Republican claims that a withdrawal would amount to a www.howeypolitics.com HOWEY Political Report Page 7 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 22, 2006

magazines (zero pre-war). Probing the Iraq Index Education: 3.6 million children in school in 2000; 4.3 million in 2004. By BRIAN A. HOWEY U.S. military deaths: 2,502 as of June 18. Of INDIANAPOLIS - U.S. Rep. Mike Pence told Con- those, 1,974 were to hostile conditions, 528 non-hostile. gress last week the U.S. is winning the war in Iraq. “The Iraq civilian deaths: 38,500 to 42,900 since enemy has never taken down so much as a full platoon in March 2003; 26,630 since major combat operations ended. any military engagement,” Pence Journalists: 68 killed. said. Iraqi kidnappings: 30 to 40 daily.. I received this e-mail from Multiple fatality bombings: 788 that have killed Prof. Dan Jelski, who heads the 6,789 and wounded 13,680. Rose-Hulman Institute of Technol- Displaced families: 100,000. ogy Chemistry Department, after he Strength of insurgency: In December 2003 it was read my column last week: “Sorry, estimated to be 5,000. In September 2005, Brookings said but I think you’ve got the Iraq “neither gaining strength nor weakening appreciably.” Esti- thing all wrong. From your column mates were from 15,000 to 20,000 from June 2005 through you’d think absolutely nothing had March 2006. The current estimate is “20,000 plus.” changed in Iraq at all. But you’re Insurgency indicators: 26,496 attacks in 2004; wrong, wrong, wrong.” He sees a 34,131 in 2005. Car bombings: 420 in 2004; 873 in 2005. prospering Baghdad exploding with Suicide car bombs: 133 in 2004; 411 in 2005. Roadside satellite dishes instead of bombs. bombs: 5,607 in 2004; 10,953 in 2005. U.S. soldiers killed: Jelski continued in another e-mail: “I don’t think I’m too far 848 in 2004; 846 in 2005. U.S. off in suggesting that you are proud soldiers wounded: 7,989 in 2004; of the insurgency, or at least put 5,939 in 2005. great faith in their powers.” Jelski observed: “The prob- Which is an absurd state- lems with the Brookings data is ment. There is no pride in watching that you’d have to believe that life the insurgency thrive, or the anar- under Saddam was better than life chy. I would have preferred “pride” in Iraq today. There is NO evi- in astute American leadership dence to support that contention instead of poor and dogmatic deci- at all.” Fair point, to which I would sions that led to this mess. Perhaps counter and say that the demons Prof. Jelski could change my mind have been traded. if he spent, say, a month in Iraq, As for other ways to gauge outside the Green Zone, checking the war in Iraq, I turn to people out the internet cafes and reporting Capt. Tim Jeffers in the Green Zone, 2005. who have been there, like Capt. back. Tim Jeffers, who served much of The Brookings Institute’s 2005 in the Green Zone. Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction and Secu- Jeffers was struck by the endemic corruption of rity in Post-Saddam Iraq was updated on June 18. You can Iraqis. The military equipment he saw handed off to Iraqis read it at www.brookings.edu: was more often than not stolen. “We’d go back to see what Iraq oil production: Pre-war 2.5 million barrels had happened to it. Over there, so much of everything is daily; 2.18 million in June. based on greasing palms.” Electricity: 3,958 megawatts daily pre-war. In And Jeffers is struck by the lack of personal stock in June it is 4,500 megawatts, well below the 6,000 stated the war on the homefront. “I’m amused by all the correla- goal set for July 1, 2004. The demand is 8,500 to 9,000 tions to other wars ... the Civil War, World War II. But there megawatts. is no here,” Jeffers said. “People put the yellow Unemployment: 28 to 40 percent. magnet on the back of their cars, but that’s about it.” Medical: Pre-war doctors 34,000. Since the war, There is no draft. There is no war tax. No fuel or 12,000 have left the country and 2,000 have been mur- food rationing. No scrap drives. The beat of American life dered. goes on. Communication: 207,000 Iraqis subscribe to the v Internet, 7.4 million to telephones. There are 54 commer- cial TV stations, 114 radio stations and 268 newspapers or HOWEY Political Report Page 8 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 22, 2006 Jack Colwell, South Bend Tribune - Sen. Richard G. Lugar opposes setting hard dead- Battle for the House lines in either Iraq or Iran because such inflexibility “really is not a foreign policy.” Lugar, the Indiana Republican who is chairman of the Senate Foreign R33 D38 Relations Committee, talked of problems Likely Takeover (1) in both Iraq and Iran Woodruff (Battles) during an interview in his Senate office. Tossups (8) Policy toward those Buell (Barnes) two nations cannot Borders (Bledsoe) be set “in separate Heim (Dembowski) rooms,” Lugar said, Open (Budak: Dermody vs. Renner) due to the overlap- Walorski (Kovach) ping of religious and J. Smith (Herrell) ethnic concerns and Bright (Cheatham) the way in which developments in one nation affect Saunders (Sadler) the other. In opposing the setting of a deadline for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, Lugar con- tended it would be irresponsible and dangerous for Leans (10-R; 10-D) this country “just simply to abandon Iraq according Bosma (Fuldauer) Orentlicher (Densborn) to some timetable.” Repeated speeches by some Lehe (Sutton) Hoy (A. Smith) members of Congress for setting “a time certain” for Harris (Hile) Fry (Hiler) withdrawal may play well politically, but the concept David (Liggett) Micon (Basham) fails to take into account the uncertainty of what Lutz (Mengelt) Austin (Metzger) will happen in Iraq, Lugar said. He added that there Dodge (Rauen) Tincher (Dallas) is no guarantee that a deadline to achieve stability Stutzman (Rorick) Denbo (Patton) Open (Hoffman: Knollman vs. Lanning Crooks (Arnold) would help to bring about a stable situation. v Open (Messer: Eberhard vs. Lux) Open (Stemler v Theobald Hinkle (Olds) Bischoff (Ullrich) Leslie Stedman Weiden- bener, Louisville Courier-Journal - Daniels seems especially high on the area. He talked about Safe it a lot during his campaign and it doesn’t seem (33 Republican) Ayres, Gutwein, Wolkins, Ruppel, Friend, McClain, to have just been rhetoric. After returning from Thompson, Richardson, Turner, Buck, Torr, Whetstone, T. Brown, Thom- Jeffersonville, he spent some time talking to the as, Foley, Frizzell, Behning, Murphy, Noe, Pond, Borror, Bell, Espich, Central Indiana media about their neighbors to the Ripley, Crouch, Duncan, Koch, Open (Yount: M. Smith), Burton, Cherry, south. After all, the event at Jeffboat represented Leonard, Ullmer, Neese the single biggest jobs announcement Daniels has made since he took office in January 2005. “And this (38-Democrats) Lawson, Harris, C. Brown, Bauer, Niezgodski, Dvorak, is not the first” jobs announcement in the area, he Plath, Cheney, Stevenson, Open (Aguilera: Reardon), Dobis, V. Smith, told reporters. “These are the latest in a long string. Kuzman, Bardon, Klinker, Tyler, Reske, Kersey, Pflum, Welch, Pierce, People were joking I should take a room down Goodin, Robertson, Cochran, Oxley, Stilwell, OPen (B. GiaQuinta, P. there because we’ve had big announcements there.” GiaQuinta), Moses, Dickinson, Avery, VanHaaften, Day, Summers., Craw- Particularly in Jeffersonville. Among them: 320 new ford, Mahern, Porter jobs at Heartland Payment Systems, MedVenture Technology Corp.’s decision to move to and expand Movement: Two seats have moved since our last seat tracking on May in Jeffersonville, an expansion by Steel Dynamics 18. Bosma vs. Fuldaur goes from Safe to Leans R; Saunders vs. that will add 30 jobs and IDX Corp.’s construction of Sadler goes from Safe to Tossup. v a new facility in Jeffersonville. v HOWEY Political Report Page 9 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 22, 2006 John Gregg for Governor? Rep. Chris Chocola. Democrat: Joe Donnelly. Geography: South Bend, Michigan City, Mishawaka, Elkhart, Kokomo, TRENDLINE No. 1: We are now hearing that Sen. Plymouth, Logansport; LaPorte, St. Joseph, Starke, James Merritt Jr. is no longer planning to seek the pro tem Marshall, Pulaski, Fulton, Cass, Carroll and parts of job, but that Sen. Luke Kenley is considering. Howard, Porter, Elkhart and White counties. Media TRENDLINE NO. 2: With Mayor Peterson likely to Market: South Bend-Elkhart, Indianapolis, Lafayette, seek re-election in 2007 and not governor in 2008, where Chicago. People: Urban/rural 73/27%; median income does that leave Democrats? State Sen. Vi Simpson for $40,381; Poverty 9.5%; Race 84% white, 8% black; 5 one. But State Rep. Eric Hispanic; Blue/white collar: 34/50%. 2000 Presidential: Turner, who hiked in Bush 53%, Gore 44%; Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+5; the Grand Canyon with 2002 Result: Chocola 95,081 (50%), Long Thompson former House Speaker 86,253 (46%); 2004 Result: Chocola 140,496 (54%) John Gregg last month, thinks Democrats will Donnelly (D) 115,513 (45%) 2006 Forecast: Chocola try and woo him into and Donnelly have agreed to meet Oct. 21 in a televised the race. Gregg’s health debate. Left-leaning interest groups are already bom- appears to be good after barding voters in competitive House districts with round his recent cancer (he’s after round of “robocalls” that blast GOP incumbents on lost more than 50 pounds), and he just went through a everything from lobbying legislation to the Medicare drug divorce. Gregg received some high visibility at the recent benefit. Indiana GOP Rep. Chris Chocola said his district Democratic convention. The big question is whether his received 48 rounds of calls (Kansas City Star). American role in the legislator health care for life and 4-to-1 pension Family Voices has run calls in 40 to 50 House districts plan would be a potential millstone. since last fall. The group’s president, Mike Lux, said robo- TRENDLINE NO. 3: Move over Joel Silverman calls cost about 4-6 cents each and are an effective way and Heather Bolejack. Watch for administration depart- to reach voters before they are distracted by election-year ment heads James Payne (Child Services) and Esther messages. Status: TOSSUP Schneider (Hoosier Lottery) to find themselves in the Congressional District 3: Republican: U.S. crosshairs. Judge Payne presided over the Marion County Rep. Mark Souder. Democrat: Fort Wayne Councilman Juvenile Center, which was revealed to have a quarter of Thomas Hayhurst. its employees with criminal records. Payne suggested that Geography: Fort some of them “slipped through” the hiring process. It is Wayne, Goshen; widely known that for two decades, Juvenile was Payne’s Kosciusko, Whitley, fiefdom where he practiced the art of micro-managing. LaGrange, Steuben, Ouch. On Wednesday, a whistleblower document was cir- DeKalb and parts culation around the Statehouse and toward the Inspector of Elkhart and Allen General accusing Schneder of an array of ethnical viola- counties. Media tions that included waiving RFPs, the acceptance of enter- tainment, and political activities on the job. Market: South TRENDLINE NO. 4: U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky kicked Bend-Elkhart, Fort off his re-election bid this past week. The room erupted Wayne. People: in applause when Visclosky told supporters what he thinks Urban/rural 65/35%; will and must happen this election cycle. "We have got to median income make a change in Washington, D.C., and we have got to $44,013; Race: 87% do it," he said. HPR rates his rematch against Republican white, 6% black, Mark Leyva SAFE VISCLOSKY 4.5% Hispanic; Blue/ white collar: 36/52% 2000 Presidential: Bush 66%, Congressional Races Gore 33%.Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+17. 2002 Congressional District 2: Republican: U.S. results: Souder 92,566 (63%), Rigdon 50,509 (34%). HOWEY Political Report Page 10 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 22, 2006 2004 Results: Souder, Parra 2004 Results: Souder Ellsworth in the matter of Travis John Moore. Patru said he 171,389 (69%), Parra 76,232 (31%). 2006 Forecast: was inspired to raise the issue after a sheriff's deputy acci- Souder announced that the VA Hospital in Fort Wayne dentally released accused child molester Matthew J. Long could be designated for a new mission in treating war from jail last week while Ellsworth was in Washington, wounded soldiers. President Bush risks losing congres- D.C., on campaign business. "Ellsworth may try to absolve sional support for some aspects of his anti-drug program himself of responsibility by hiding behind the judge, but because the White House downplays the seriousness of in August 2005 - after (Moore's) triple-/suicide the meth epidemic, Rep. Mark Souder, R-3rd, said Friday - Ellsworth himself approved a report that said the judges (Smith, Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). He said mem- who dealt with Moore made reasonable decisions in this bers of Congress – Republicans and Democrats alike – are case," Patru said. Ellsworth campaign manager Jay Howser frustrated at the administration’s proposal to kill the pro- said Ellsworth would respond personally to the charges as gram that underwrites local drug task forces and efforts to soon as Hostettler makes them himself instead of "hiding reduce money for areas that have special drug problems. behind these suits, these hacks, in Washington." "That All the newest High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas are report did not endorse the judges' sentencing decisions," trying to cope with meth, Souder told members of the Howser said. "All it did was say the judges were Bush administration at a hearing he conducted. Members Hostettler has more than $45,000 in credit debt. of Congress are so dismayed by the White House’s lack of Congress members are only required to report their infor- enthusiasm for fighting meth that no one was willing to go mation in broad dollar bands, and he put on the annual to bat for money for the anti-drug advertising campaign, financial forms that he has three cards with balances he said. Last year, House members won an additional $30 between $15,001 and $50,000 each. Last year, he had million for the program, provided the money was used for two cards with balances in that range. In 2005, he sold ads denouncing meth, Souder said, but that didn’t hap- more than $28,000 worth of stocks, and retained between pen. So this year, when a House committee cut $20?million $7,001 and $106,000 in stocks. Status: TOSS-UP from the administration’s $120 million request for the ad Congressional District 9: Republican: U.S. campaign, “not a single member of Congress” was will- Rep. Mike Sodrel. Democrat: Baron Hill. Media Market: ing to plead the administration’s case, Souder said. “There Evansville (11%), Indianapolis (23%), Louisville (55%), has to be more responsiveness,” he said. Status: LEANS Dayton, Cincinnati (10 percent). People: urban/rural SOUDER 52/48%, median income $39,011; race white 94%, 2.3% Congressional District 8: Republican: U.S. black, 1.5% Hispanic; blue/white collar: 34/50%; 2000 Rep. John Hostettler. Democrat: Vanderburgh County Presidential: Bush 56%, Gore 42%; Cook Partisan Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Geography: Evansville, Terre Voting Index: R+8. 2004 Presidential: Bush 59%, Kerry Haute, Greencastle; Posey, Vanderburgh, Warrick, Gibson, 40%. 2002 Results: Hill 96,654 (51%), Sodrel 87,169 Pike, Martin, Daviess, Knox, Sullivan, Greene, Owen, (46%). 2002 Money: Hill $1.144m, Sodrel $1.62m. 2004 Clay, Vigo, Vermillion, Parke, Putnam, Warren and part Results: Sodrel 142,197, Hill 140,772, Cox (L) 4,541. 2006 of Fountain counties. Media Market: Evansville, Terre Forecast: Sodrel’s strategy is emerging. He will be pro- Haute, Indianapolis. Lafayette. People: Urban/rural trayed as a steady hand willing to make tough decisions, 58/42%; median income $36,732; poverty 10.7%; race said his chief of staff Cam Savage at the GOP convention. white 93.7%, black 3.7%, Hispanic .9%; blue/white col- By contrast, Savage said, Hill has changed his position lar: 32/52%. 2000 Presidential: Bush 56%, Gore 42%; on the war, tax cuts and trade. “He came out against the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+8. 2002 Results: capital gains tax cut,” Savage said. “That’s not like the old Hostettler 98,952 (51%), Hartke 88,763 (46%), 2004 Baron Hill the stockbroker. “Mike knows who he is. He’s Results: Hostettler 145,576, Jennings (D) 121,522, Garvin established. He votes the way of the district. He knows (Green) 5.680. 2006 Forecast: National Republicans what his values are.” Former President Clinton will hold a accused Ellsworth of endorsing a judge's decision not to fundraiser for Hill at the Conrad Hotel in Indianapolis on incarcerate a work release participant who would go on July 5. Sodrel, 60, who represents Southern Indiana east to commit a triple-murder/suicide (Langhorne, Evansville of Hostettler's district, is one of the wealthiest members Courier & Press). Ellsworth responded with a written of the Tri-State delegation because of the trucking and statement saying Hostettler's "callous decision to politicize charter bus company he founded (Evansville Courier this tragedy shows he knows nothing about protecting & Press). It's worth between $5.3 million and $25.5 mil- this community and even less about what it means to be lion. His 401(k) balance at the end of 2005 was nearly a leader." National Republican Congressional Committee $704,000. He loaned his last two campaigns $1.25 mil- spokesman Ed Patru said Hostettler "categorically" was lion. Former Rep. Baron Hill, 52, who is running against not involved, even indirectly, in his decision to challenge Sodrel for his old seat, made $150,000 last year from mCapitol Management, a lobbying and consulting firm in HOWEY Political Report Page 11 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 22, 2006

Washington, D.C. His wife, a teacher in Seymour, Ind., has for the state party. “He’s from Lake County. His father is a saved $50,000 to $100,000 in her 401(k). He's built up doctor who can easily get 10 other doctors together. Why more than $15,000 in his 401(k) in his first year at mCapi- shouldn’t he be able to raise money here,” Vierck said. tol. They also have modest holdings of computer stocks. Status: LEANS ROKITA In a defeat for President Bush, Republican congressional Senate District 41: Republican: Greg Walker. leaders said Tuesday that broad immigration legislation is Democrat: Terry Coriden. 1998 Results: Garton 26,499. all but doomed for the year, a victim of election-year con- 2002 Results: Garton 21,918 , Gividen (L) 3,350 . 2006 cerns in the House and conservatives' implacable opposi- Forecast: Walker was on the GOP convention floor “Mend- tion to citizenship for millions of illegal immigrants (Epso, ing fence.” For what? HPR asked. “You won. You stuck to Associated Press). Hill affirmed his opposition to any leg- the issues.” Walker acknowledged there were still hard feel- islation which would grant illegal immigrants amnesty. Hill, ings within the GOP establishment in his district, but that running for Congress in Indiana’s 9th District, stressed the he is reaching out. “I’m enjoying a lot of fish,” he said of need to secure our nation’s borders and not reward illegal the array of fish fries he’s been attending. Walker empha- behavior with a pathway to citizenship (HPR). Hill added sized “I’m not just about social issues. The property tax that the federal government must work to enforce current issue is crucial for Johnson County.” Status: TOSSUP v immigration laws and limit legal immigration across our House District 54: Republican: State Tom nation’s borders. Immigrants here illegally should face the Saunders. Democrat: David G. Sadler. 2004 Results: same penalties as American citizens who break the law, Saunders 18,202, Durber (D) 7,318, Bod (L) 1,194, Cramer he said. “The real issue here is that our government must (I) 577.. 2006 Forecast: Word out of this district is that do a much better job of securing our nation’s borders,” Hill Saunders may be in trouble. It’s been a bad year for the said. “Our nation today is less secure than in the months Saunders family, with the arrest and conviction of his son in leading up to the attacks of September 11. The White a fatal hit-and-run accident. The “whisper campaign” in the House has failed all Americans in its inability to improve district is that the family was treated differently by officials homeland security and stop the flood of illegal immigrants during the investigation. Saunders faces Sadler, a retiring through our borders.” Status: TOSSUP. city judge. Status: TOSSUP. v

Marion County Prosecutor: Republican: State, Legislative Races Prosecutor Carl Brizzi. Democrat: Melina Kennedy. 2006 Secretary of State: Republican: Secretary of Forecast: Brizzi campaign manager Jennifer Hallowell told State Todd Rokita. Democrat: Joe Pearson. 2002 Results: HPR that Brizzi has no intention of challenging Indianapo- Rokita (R) 789,261, Fernandez (D) 627,416, Sink-Burris lis Mayor Bart Peterson in 2007. It was one of the earliest (L) 60,937. 2006 Forecast: Rokita and the rest of the charges from Kennedy, who vowed to serve a full term. The state ticket were nominated at the GOP convention. Vern issue is expected to surface, and Brizzi is expected to make Vireck from Lake County defended Rokita’s decision to back a committment to serve a full term. STATUS: TOSSUP Rick Niemyer in the recent county chair battle. Rokita had been criticized for coming to the county to “raid” money v

Paid Advertisement HOWEY Political Report Page 12 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 22, 2006 Ethanol plant income city where unemployment is Visclosky told members of the United in development low and a vibrant downtown has been Steelworkers of America. “We can preserved. As poor and rich neighbor- have dialogue until our gums are sore, MOUNT VERNON - Consoli- hoods proliferate, the share of middle- and then we’re all going to be out of dated Grain and Barge has contacted income neighborhoods in greater In- a job.” Visclosky’s comments came the Ports of Indiana, requesting an dianapolis has dropped by 21 percent as merger discussions between Mittal option to lease 116 acres at the Mount since 1970. “No city in America has Steel and Arcelor were postponed until Vernon port for an ethanol plant, gotten more integrated by income in Sunday. Several analysts predicted the according to Jody Peacock, spokes- the last 30 years,” said Alan Berube, merger would have a limited effect man for the ports (Evansville Cou- an urban demographer at Brookings on existing Mittal operations in Burns rier & Press). Don Smolek, general who worked on the report. “It means Harbor and East Chicago. manager of ethanol development at that if you are not living in one of the Consolidated’s headquarters in Jef- well-off areas, you are not going to fersonville, Ind., confirmed Wednesday Daniels touts Indiana have access to the same amenities the request recently was made. He – good schools and safe environment hardwoods in Japan said he is in negotiations with several – that you could find 30 years ago,” he TOYKYO - Gov. Mitch Daniels different companies about establishing said. used a stop in Tokyo today to boost a an ethanol plant on the riverfront. global branding campaign for Indiana’s hardwoods and furniture industries Middle class fleeing Recount begins in (Indinaapolis Star). “Premium Indianapolis Harrison County Indiana Forest Products” is a recently CORYDON - A three-member launched campaign of the Indiana INDIANAPOLIS - Middle-class commission started work yesterday on Hardwood Lumberman’s Associa- neighbor- a recount of votes in the May 2 Re- tion. It features a logo -- an outline hoods, long publican primary for Harrison County of the state covered in green leaves regarded commissioner (Louisville Courier- -- that identifies hardwood products as incuba- Journal). Harold Klinstiver, who lost from Indiana. (See it at www.ihla. tors for the to one-term incumbent Jim Heitkem- org.) Daniels launched the Asian leg of American per by 175 votes in the 3rd District the campaign at news conference in dream, race, requested the manual recount the Gallery Mori no Kotoba, a furni- are losing because of concerns about problems ture market in Tokyo. “We are letting ground in with voting equipment. Klinstiver the Asian market know how they cities across received 964 votes to Heitkemper’s can identify our high-quality Indi- the country, shrinking at more than 1,139. The recount commission -- ana hardwoods products, leading to twice the rate of the middle class Jane Reiman, Virginia Davis and Terry more export opportunities for Hoosier itself (Washington Post). In their Ginkins -- plans to manually count businesses,” Daniels said in a writ- place, poor and rich neighborhoods votes from 23 precincts in the race. ten statement. In an interview earlier are both on the rise, as cities and this week, Daniels pointed to Idaho suburbs have become increasingly Potatoes as an example of how he segregated by income, according to a Visclosky blasts Bush would like to develop a brand identity Brookings Institution study released over Chinese steel imports for many of Indiana’s farm products. today. It found that as a share of all WASHINGTON - Rep. Pete Vis- The Indiana State Department of Ag- urban and suburban neighborhoods, closky attacked the Bush administra- riculture, following a study by the life middle-income neighborhoods in the tion Wednesday for allowing Chinese sciences group BioCrossroads, identi- nation’s 100 largest metro areas have steel imports to “significantly disrupt” fied hardwoods as a key agricultural declined from 58 percent in 1970 to the U.S. market, leading to the shut- economic development strategy. The 41 percent in 2000. Middle-income tering of plants and the loss of local industry employs 47,000 Hoosiers, neighborhoods – where families earn jobs. The president’s refusal to impose earning combined wages of $1.4 bil- 80 to 120 percent of the local median limits on Chinese steel is in direct op- lion. income – have plunged by more than position to repeated recommendations 20 percent as a share of all neighbor- from the International Trade Commis- hoods in Baltimore, Chicago, Los An- sion, the Indiana Democrat said at a geles and Philadelphia. They are down steelworkers’ rally. “We have an ad- 10 percent in the Washington area. ministration that simply refuses to en- It’s happening, too, in Indianapolis, force the laws that are on the book,” a prosperous, mostly white middle-