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The Value of Using Hydrological Datasets for Water Allocation Decisions: Earth Observations, Hydrological Models, and Seasonal Forecasts

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The Value of Using Hydrological Datasets for Water Allocation Decisions: Earth Observations, Hydrological Models, and Seasonal Forecasts The Value of Using Hydrological Datasets for Water Allocation Decisions: Earth Observations, Hydrological Models, and Seasonal Forecasts Alexander José Kaune Schmidt THE VALUE OF USING HYDROLOGICAL DATASETS FOR WATER ALLOCATION DECISIONS: EARTH OBSERVATIONS, HYDROLOGICAL MODELS, AND SEASONAL FORECASTS ALEXANDER JOSÉ KAUNE SCHMIDT Thesis committee Promotor Prof. Dr C.M.S. de Fraiture Professor of Hydraulic Engineering for Land and Water Development IHE Delft Institute for Water Education and Wageningen University & Research Co-promotor Dr M.G.F. Werner Associate Professor of Hydraulic Engineering IHE Delft Institute for Water Education Other members Prof. Dr F. Ludwig, Wageningen University & Research Prof. Dr J. Barron, University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden Prof. Dr P. van der Zaag, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education / TUDelft Dr H.C. Winsemius, TUDelft / Deltares This research was conducted under the auspices of the SENSE Research School for Socio- Economic and Natural Sciences of the Environment The value of using hydrological datasets for water allocation decisions: earth observations, hydrological models, and seasonal forecasts Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of the Academic Board of Wageningen University and the Academic Board of the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education for the degree of doctor to be defended in public on Friday, September 27th, 2019 at 3.30 p.m. in Delft, the Netherlands by Alexander José Kaune Schmidt Born in Hamburg, Germany CRC Press/Balkema is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2019, Alexander José Kaune Schmidt Although all care is taken to ensure integrity and the quality of this publication and the information herein, no responsibility is assumed by the publishers, the author nor IHE Delft for any damage to the property or persons as a result of operation or use of this publication and/or the information contained herein. A pdf version of this work will be made available as Open Access via http://repository.tudelft.nl/ihe This version is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International License, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Published by: CRC Press/Balkema Schipholweg 107C, 2316 XC, Leiden, the Netherlands [email protected] www.crcpress.com – www.taylorandfrancis.com ISBN 978-0-367-42955-3 (Taylor & Francis Group) ISBN 978-94-6395-008-4 (Wageningen University) DOI: https://doi.org/10.18174/479159 To my loving family, ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Over the past five years I have been working towards the completion of this dissertation. Back in 2014, I was working in Costa Rica after my MSc studies in IHE-Delft. Micha suggested to start a full-time PhD research, which meant that I had to come back to the Netherlands. I resigned to my job and I accepted the PhD challenge. It has been the biggest challenge until now. Now that it is over, I want to thank many people that helped and supported me along the way. Certainly, without them, this work would have been impossible to finish successfully. I would like to deeply thank Micha Werner and Charlotte de Fraiture for offering me the opportunity to carry out this PhD research in IHE-Delft and Wageningen University. Your guidance and scientific advice was the cornerstone of this successful PhD dissertation. I am grateful for your constant support, encouragement and guidance. Micha, thank you for always motivating me to improve my work and target the level of quality that is required to obtain a PhD. More than an excellent mentor, you are truly an extraordinary person. Charlotte, thank you for your guidance, advice and patience. Thanks for your efforts to help our Land and Water group to write better papers and get our message across. Also, special thanks to Erasmo Rodríguez for offering the opportunity to do an internship in the National University in Colombia. Your guidance and scientific advice in hydrological modelling has been extremely valuable. Thanks to Poolad Karimi for offering your help since the beginning and sharing valuable references and advice in irrigation management. Special thanks to all members of the evaluation committee. It is an honor to have all of you assessing this PhD work. Also, thanks to all the scientific experts who reviewed the publications included in this thesis. I gratefully acknowledge the EartH2Observe project for funding this PhD research, including all the trips, conferences and publications. It has given me the opportunity to work with great and amazing experts from all around the world. Thanks to the incredible team of the Water Resources Research Group of National University of Colombia (GIREH) in Bogotá, especially to Erasmo, Inés, Albeiro, David, Nicolás, Pedro Felipe y Pedro Javier. Thanks for our scientific discussions and social events in Bogotá. Also, thanks to CSIRO Land and Water team in Canberra, Australia. Special thanks to Juan Pablo Guerschman, Marc Kirby and James Bennett for your scientific advice. I also acknowledge CONICIT/MICIT (Programa de Innovación y Capital Humano para la Competitividad, PINN) for the additional finance provided to include a case study from Costa Rica in this PhD research. Thanks for the data provided by the Instituto Meteorológico Nacional (IMN) and the Servicio Nacional de Aguas Subterráneas, Riego y Avenamiento (SENARA) de Costa Rica. Also, special thanks to CeNAT (PRIAS and Observatorio Climático) in Costa Rica for the internship position and information exchange. The contribution of a number of colleagues of IHE-Delft, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Deltares was crucial for the completion of this work. Special thanks to Clara Linés, Gonzalo Peña, Juan Carlos Chacón, Gabriela Cuadrado, Patricia López, Anouk Gevaert and Ted Veldkamp. Ted and Anouk, thanks for our conversations and scientific discussions about our vii paper, it certainly motivated me to work better, and be more organized. Clara, thanks for your support and help, especially at the beginning of our PhD when we were trying to figure out what to do. Gonzalo and Juan Carlos, you have been friends in IHE since the beginning, thanks for your coding advice, you saved me more than once. Gaby, thanks for our conversations about Costa Rica and our paper idea and development. It was certainly a new challenge during the last stages of my PhD, which also contributed to my writing. Patricia, I cannot thank you enough. Our meetings in IHE were crucial, at a time when I had many ideas, but I had no clue if they made any sense. Thanks for listening and asking the right questions. At the end the “value of additional information” found its way The last year of my PhD, I started to work at a research and consultancy company called FutureWater. Starting to work again, helped me to be more organized and more efficient, both at work and in my PhD. Special thanks to my colleagues Sonu, Jonna, Martijn, Gijs, Peter, Arthur, Corjan, Johannes, Raed and Sergio. To the endless colleagues and friends I met in Delft. Many of you are still around, others have gone with the years. I deeply value your friendship, and advice. Conversations and discussions about life, culture, political views, religion, football or just relaxing with friends and colleges, has made this part of my life pretty unique and memorable. Friends are many, and possibly I am leaving more than one out of this list. Thanks to Mohan, Mohaned, Omar, Yared, JuanCa, Neiler, Maurizzio, Aki, Gaby, Francesco, Alessandro, Maria, Musaed, Alida, Mario, Vitali, Eiman, Jonatan, Shahnoor, Thaine, Gonzalo, Miguel, Sida, Clara, Nadine, Abdi, Chris, Polpat, Quan, Tarn, Natalia, Sofia, Maria, Mauricio, Mary, Iosif and Jeewa, and so many others. In Colombia, special thanks to Gonzalo, a truly exceptional friend, hope to see you again soon! In Bolivia, special thanks to Angi, a loyal friend since the MSc studies, gracias totales! In Brasil, special thanks to Chris, a truly kind heart. Thanks for our coffees in IHE, which were needed to escape the routine. Un fuerte abrazo! Special thanks to Cesar and Adriana, who helped me unconditionally during my stay in Bogotá and in other endeavors in my PhD. Special thanks also to Benno. Talking with you gave me another perspective of reality outside the PhD life, which was needed and important to go forward. Thanks for all your advice. My friends, “the gang” from high school and university back in Costa Rica always had something to say and we stay in contact after so many years. A special acknowledgment to them, because I missed many activities and special occasions due to the distance, and still today I can count on them and they count on me for sharing our challenges and successes. The 300 WhatsApp messages when I wake up in the mornings were always giving me motivation to start the day . Special thanks to “the gang” Nela, Migue, Albert, JuanCa, Julio, Ale, Ponchi, Dani, Iker and Adrian. Nela thank you for always listening, you have the biggest heart. Un abrazo gigante! Mami y papi, hermanos. What a family! A truly example of unity, hard work and success. I love them all very deeply. My brothers Andrés, Daniel and Marcel, you are part of my life. We lived so many years together, sharing things, partying and playing sports, but then also so many years separated. In the last years Andrés got married and had a beautiful daughter. I hope we can reunite and share many nice moments again in the future. To my father, you have been my role model and inspiration. Thanks to your unconditional support, I am here now receiving this viii PhD degree. To my mother, you have always been there for me. Always listening, caring and giving advice, but also knowing when to give us space for our benefit. You are an essential part of my success.
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