PG&E Utility Fire Potential Index (FPI)

Thanks to our sponsors! Chris Anthony, Staff Chief for CAL FIRE, Sacramento

Rich Thompson, Incident Meteorologist at NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard

Scott Strenfel, Principal Meteorologist in PG&E's Meteorology Operations and Analytics

Chad Myers, CNN Weather Correspondent, Atlanta, Moderator WILDFIRE’S the new reality

Let’s recap…

Why? We have arrived at this present emergency due to:  fire exclusion  forest management policies that have created overgrown and overcrowded forests  Unresilient landscapes to fire, drought, insect and disease  Legacy of a historic drought Why?

 A changing climate  Longer Fire Seasons  Warmer temperatures at night  Legacy Building Codes and Construction  Nexus of built environment x Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones What are we doing about it? Executive Order B-52-18 May 10, 2018 (Brown): Double the total statewide rate of forest treatments within 5 years to at least 500,000 acres per year

$200 million/year next 5 years

Liability Reform

Actively managed forests

8 SENATE BILL 901 • Wildfire Resilience Program, technical assistance to nonindustrial timberland owners • Appropriates $165 million for healthy forest and fire prevention programs, and $35 million for prescribed fire and other fuel reduction projects, through Fiscal Year 2023-24, from the GGRF.

9 AB 2518 - Innovative Forest Products and Mass Timber CAL FIRE, Board of Forestry and Fire Protection: Identify barriers to in-state production of mass timber and other innovative forest products, develop solutions that are consistent with the state’s climate objectives on forest lands

Forest Management Task Force, Joint Institute for Wood Products, Board: Recommendations for the siting of additional wood product manufacturing facilities in the state

10 February 22, 2019

35 priority fuel reduction projects

200 communities

90,000 acres

March 22, 2019 state of emergency proclamation provided regulatory relief CAL FIRE Fuels Reduction Crews

National Guard Crews

Prescribed fire video- Sugar Pine Point State Park ADDRESSING THESE ISSUES

• Additional CAL FIRE Aircraft, Engines and Personnel • CAL FIRE Helicopter Replacement Program • CAL FIRE C-130 Program (7) • Dozer Operator Staffing • CAL FIRE/CCC Fire Crew Expansion • Fire Detection Cameras and Technology SPOT REPORT Fire Detection and Assessment Watch Desk (Compiled from multiple sources)

SERIAL: 20190903-1.4-1450 What: Country Fire

Where: In Vicinity Of (IVO) 38° 54.811'N, 120° 56.372'W El Dorado County

When: Initial Detection- 03 Sep 2019 1340 HRS Current Detection- 03 Sep 2019 1450 0.87 Miles HRS

DPA: SRA

Proximity to Urban Interface: 1.26 Miles NW of Greenwood

Weather: 92° F; Winds 5 mph SW; Wind Gust 16 mph; Cloud Coverage 0%; Humidity 18%

LEGEND 1340-1355 HRS – 70.6 ACRES 1400-1410 HRS -- 47.7 ACRES 1410-1425 HRS - 51 ACRES 1425-1450 HRS -- 58.5 ACRES

Date of Base Layer Imagery: 8/16/2018

Analyst Comments: * Note: Area estimate and graphical depiction is not actual fire perimeter. Acreage is not to be used for official reporting. COMMUNITY AND WILDFIRE RESILIENCE

Daily Express

“EXTREME” RED FLAG WARNING “Extreme” Red Flag Warning

Issued on October 28th, 2019: ● Ventura and Los Angeles counties ● Valid 11 PM on 10/29 through 6 PM on 10/31

Expected conditions: ● Northeast wind gusts 50-70 MPH (local gusts 80 MPH) ● Minimum Relative humidity 2-10% (no recovery) ● Critically dry vegetation ● Potentially strongest event since October 2007 ● Witch Fire (197,990 acres) ● Harris Fire (90,440 acres) ● Ranch Fire (58,401 acres)

Forecast Reasoning: ● Models forecasted record breaking surface gradients ● LAX-DAG -9.0 to -11.0 mb ● Strong wind support aloft ● Extremely cold air over deserts Photo: USFS ANF ● Potential extreme fire behavior/spread “Extreme” Red Flag Warning

Summary: ● Northeast wind gusts 50-70 MPH ● Minimum relative humidity 1-7 % ● Easy Fire ○ 1806 acres near Simi Valley

Customer Reaction: ● Use of “Extreme” in headline heightened attention ○ Plenty of media coverage ○ Plenty of “sharing” on social media ● Confusion for media/public: ○ What criteria makes this RFW “Extreme???” ○ Is this a new NWS product??? ○ Is a “monster” fire going to occur???

NWS Takeaways: ● Only use “extreme” wording in body of RFW ● Need better way to message “extreme” events Photo: Greg Doyle Messaging of Extreme Red Flag Events Fire Weather- Severe Weather of the West: ● Large number of devastating fires ○ Heavy fuels ○ Dramatic weather and topography ○ Dense population in Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI)

Problem for customers: ● Warning “Fatigue” ○ Large number of RFWs desensitizes public ■ Crying wolf syndrome ○ Can lose potential significance of an event

Problem for NWS: ● Relaying difference between “run of the mill” and “extreme” events ● However, extreme events can occur without extreme weather Messaging of Extreme Red Flag Events

Ways to improve messaging: ● New RFW products for “extreme” events???: ○ Red Flag Emergency ○ PDS Red Flag Warning ■ Particularly Dangerous Situation ● Used by NWS Reno a couple of times ○ Extreme Red Flag Warning

Continued improvement of customer relationships: ● Partner emails for significant events ○ Detail expected weather and confidence ● Pre Fire Season meetings/workshops ○ Review Fire Wx program and changes

Improved social media efforts: ● Increase use of Twitter/FB for weather messaging ○ Current and expected weather ○ Agency programs: ■ “Ready Set Go” for example ● Public Service Announcements (PSA) Public/Media Resources for Fire Weather

Local WFO Products: ● Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) ○ Forecaster reasoning, model preference, etc. ● Weather Story ○ One page info graphic about upcoming wx ● Fire Wx Snooper ○ Monitor current observations ○ Great to track Red Flag conditions

National NWS Products: ● Storm Prediction Center (SPC) ○ Day 1, 2 and 3-8 Fire Wx Outlooks ○ Issued for entire country ● Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ○ Issue long range outlooks ■ 6-10 Day, 8-14 Day, 1 Month, 3 Month ■ Temperature and Precipitation ○ El Nino/La Nina Predictions Public/Media Resources For Fire Weather

Geographic Area Coordination Center: ● Interagency group ○ BLM/USFS/BIA/CalFire/NPS etc. ● Great fire weather information/forecasts ○ Fuels Discussion ○ Zone-based fire weather forecasts ○ Web casts ○ Seasonal Fire Outlooks ○ SAWTI (Santa Ana Wind Threat Index) ■ Potential for large fires ■ Based on wind and fuels

United States Drought Monitor: ● Issued once a week ● Monitor current drought conditions across US

InciWeb: ● Latest info for current wildfires across the country Concerning Scenarios

Wet Winter followed by dry Winter: ● Wet Winter provides ample grass/brush crop ● Dry Winter leads to earlier fire season

Extended Drought: ● Very stressed vegetation ● Impact from bark beetles ● 2012-2017 CA drought ○ Contributed to significant fires

Climate Change: ● Global temperatures increasing ○ 9 of 10 warmest years since 2005 ● Global CO2 increasing ○ Record concentration 407.4 ppm in 2018 ○ 30% increase in ocean acidity ● Impacts ○ Rising sea levels ○ Longer, more extreme heat waves ○ Wet areas “wetter”...dry areas “drier” Mud and Debris Flows

Debris Flows: ● After wildfire, soil becomes hydrophobic ○ Rain does not infiltrate into the soil ● Increased surface runoff and erosion during rain events ● Mud and debris flows can develop ● Debris flow triggers ○ Short duration intense rainfall ○ Long duration (2-4 days) of rainfall ● NWS developed mud/debris flow warning program ○ Cooperative effort with USGS ○ Establish rain thresholds that trigger debris flows ○ Both advisory and warning level events ● Noteworthy debris flows: ○ Montecito (January 9th, 2018) ■ 21 deaths/150+ injuries ■ Highway 101 closed for 30 miles ■ Rainfall rate: 0.5” in 5 minutes ○ Camarillo Springs (December 12th, 2014) ■ 16 homes destroyed Critical Weather Phenomena Atmospheric River (AR): ● Long, narrow regions of water vapor ○ “River in the Sky” ● Produce rain/snow when making landfall ● Vary in strength ○ Weak/moderate AR ■ Beneficial rain and snow ○ Strong AR ■ Heavy rain and snow ■ Potential flooding/debris flow issues ● Pineapple Express ○ Source region near Hawaii El Nino/La Nina: ● Ocean temperatures near equatorial Pacific ○ El Nino - Warming of waters ○ La Nina - Cooling of waters ● Impact atmospheric flow (jet streams) ● Mixed signals with respect to expected West Coast rain ○ Strong El Nino - usually above normal rain ○ Otherwise, no clear rainfall signals Forecaster Tools

GOES 17 Satellite: ● High resolution imagery ○ 0.5 km to 2 km ● High temporal resolution ○ Up to 1 minute imagery ● Better fire detection/smoke imagery

Computer Models: ● Improved resolution ○ Up to 1 km ● Local offices run own high resolution models ● Advantages: ○ More detailed forecasts for local area ○ Analyze local phenomena better ○ Can move model domain ● Disadvantages: ○ May be significant model biases ○ Resource drag for local NWS offices ■ Computing time ■ Hardware PG&E TOOLS TO EVALUATE WEATHER-RELATED RISKS Tools to Determine Weather and Fire Risk: 30 Yr. High Resolution Weather and Fuels Climatology

• 30 year high resolution weather climatology (historical weather and fuels on a grid - 80 Billion data points) • 3 km spatial resolution, 1 hr. temporal • 8/1/1988 – 12/31/2018 • ~20,000 grid points across the PG&E territory of weather & fuels • Weather (temp, rh, wind, precip, pressure) • Fuels (Dead fuel moisture (1, 10, 100, 1000hr), live fuel moisture) • National Fire Danger Rating System Outputs (IC, SC, BI, ERC) • Applications • Determine historical wind-outage relationships • Calibrate utility-specific Fire Potential Index to historical fires • Calibrate guidance for operational decision making • Determine where Diablo Wind events are most frequent • Several others! • Same model used to construct climatology is used in forecast- mode (apples to apples)

Some of the measures included in this document are contemplated as additional precautionary measures intended to further reduce the risk of future ignitions following the 2017 and 2018 wildfires. Diablo Wind-Event Frequency (Fire Weather Winds) 30 Yr. High Resolution Weather and Fuels Climatology Enterprise Meteorology • Diablo Wind Event Methodology • Windspeeds > 20 mph (gusts >34 mph) • RH < 25% • Wind direction north to northeast (offshore) • Fire Potential Index > 0.14

Peak offshore wind season

June Peak

Mid- Winter – low event probability summer lull Typical start of rain/snow season

Some of the measures included in this document are contemplated as additional precautionary measures intended to further reduce the risk of future ignitions following the 2017 and 2018 wildfires. Key Takeaways Dataset / Model OPW timeseries to • PG&E 30-year climatology evaluate model run- (1988 – 2018) to-run consistency and peak timing • Outage activity from 2008 – 2018 (11 years, over 300,000 unplanned events) Analysis / Results

• Wind speeds were extracted for each outage record per location per hour from climatology

• Numerous wind-outage model fits were tested

• Wind outage relationships, as expected based on experience, were found to be heterogeneous across the territory

• System operational PG&E Utility Fire Potential Index (FPI)

Key Takeaways Datasets / Model

• PG&E 30-year climatology (1988 – 2018) + • Fire Occurrence dataset from + USFS: 1992 - 2018 Analysis / Results

• Benchmarked FPI against Weather Fuels Land Type agency and utility best-practices Wind Speed, Dead Fuel Moisture Forest, shrub/brush Temperature & and or grass-land • Constructed over 4000 FPI model variants for predictive Humidity Live Fuel Moisture dominated analysis

• PG&E Utility FPI outputs the probability of large fire occurrence PG&E Utility FPI

The Utility Fire Potential Index (FPI) and Outage Producing Winds (OPW) Model are used in unison to analyze what conditions existed during the most catastrophic fires in Northern and Central California history to forecast when catastrophic utility-caused fires are more likely to occur in the future. 1 Scenario: Winter Scenario: Wind Event with High Storm Dry Fuels (seen during October PSPS events) High Outage Potential Low Probability of an Ignition High Outage Potential Becoming a Large Fire High Probability of an Ignition Outage Becoming a Large Fire Producing Calibrated against ~1,600 fires from Winds USFS database since 1992 (OPW) Scenario: Blue Sky Day Scenario: Hot/Dry in February/March Summer Day Low Outage Potential Low Outage Potential Low Probability of an Ignition High Probability of an Ignition Becoming a Large Fire Becoming a Large Fire Low 0 0.5 Low Fire Potential Index (FPI) High Following the wildfires in 2017 and 2018, some of the changes included in this presentation are contemplated as additional precautionary measures intended to further reduce future wildfire risk. Weather Station north of Santa Rosa PG&E Weather Station Intelligence Wind Overview Temp/RH • 626 stations installed as of 1/22/2020 • All data collected is available to the public via MESOWEST, NWS, & MADIS Real-time Data Display

Installation goals: • 400 additional stations (1000 total) in 2020 • 1300 total by 2022

Outreach • Collaborating with NWS offices, Cal fire and others on site locations • Main Contact: [email protected]

Metadata available per pixel # times fire has been identified in an area for this incident

Fire first detected in area

Peak intensity intensity Decreasing <- Fire Radiative Power Timeseries to track the intensity of fires PG&E Satellite Fire Detection and Alert System Recent Event: Walker Fire (September 2019) Q&A