Policy Briefing
Policy Briefing Africa Briefing N°89 Nairobi/Brussels, 22 August 2012 Ethiopia After Meles I. OVERVIEW tions under his tight control. Without him, however, the weaknesses of the regime he built will be more starkly exposed. The death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who had not been seen in public for several months, was announced on The transition will likely be an all-TPLF affair, even if 20 August 2012 by Ethiopian state television. The passing masked beneath the constitution, the umbrella of the of the man who has been Ethiopia’s epicentre for 21 years EPRDF and the prompt elevation of the deputy prime minis- will have profound national and regional consequences. ter, Hailemariam Desalegn, to acting head of government. Meles engineered one-party rule in effect for the Tigray Given the opacity of the inner workings of the govern- People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and his Tigrayan inner ment and army, it is impossible to say exactly what it will circle, with the complicity of other ethnic elites that were look like and who will end up in charge. Nonetheless, any co-opted into the ruling alliance, the Ethiopian People’s likely outcome suggests a much weaker government, a Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The Front more influential security apparatus and endangered inter- promised freedom, democracy and ethnic devolution but nal stability. The political opposition, largely forced into is highly centralised, tightly controls the economy and exile by Meles, will remain too fragmented and feeble to suppresses political, social, ethnic and religious liberties. play a considerable role, unless brought on board in an In recent years, Meles had relied ever more on repression internationally-brokered process.
[Show full text]