Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 72
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Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 59 - 18 January 2021
Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 59 - 18 January 2021 Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Reported war situation (as confirmed per 17 January) - According to Sudan Tribune, the head of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, disclosed that Sudanese troops were deployed on the border as per an agreement with the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, arranged prior to the beginning of the war. - Al-Burhan told a gathering about the arrangements that were made in the planning of the military actions: “I visited Ethiopia shortly before the events, and we agreed with the Prime Minister of Ethiopia that the Sudanese armed forces would close the Sudanese borders to prevent border infiltration to and from Sudan by an armed party.” - Al-Burhan stated: "Actually, this is what the (Sudanese) armed forces have done to secure the international borders and have stopped there." His statement suggests that Abiy Ahmed spoke with him about the military plans before launching the military operation in Tigray. - Ethiopia has called the operation a “domestic law and order” action to respond to domestic provocations, but the planning with neighbours in the region on the actions paint a different picture. -
News Highlights – Friday December 11, 2020
News Highlights – Friday December 11, 2020 News Contents COVID-19 Pandemic................................................................................................... 3 Nigeria to vaccinate 20 million people against COVID-19............................ 3 Egypt Receives 1st Shipment of Chinese Vaccine Tested in UAE.................3 GERD............................................................................................................................ 4 Ethiopians Continue Unwavering Support for GERD: Director.....................4 Ethiopia......................................................................................................................... 4 Ethiopia: Aid agencies say four staff killed in Tigray fighting....................... 4 Ethiopian government says it is returning Eritrean refugees to camps in Tigray..................................................................................................................... 5 Ethiopia government denies war impeding aid, agencies report staff deaths..6 Some 88 Trucks Of Food, Medical Supplies Dispatched To Several Towns Tigray: PM Office.................................................................................................. 6 TPLF Clique High Official, Dr. Addisalem Balema, and Seyoum Mesfin’s wife and son appear before Court.......................................................................... 8 State of Emergency Inquiry Board Unveils Field Report............................... 8 TPLF Clique Looted, Destroyed Office of Refugee Camps -
The Tigray War & Regional Implications
THE TIGRAY WAR & REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS (VOLUME 1) November 2020 to June 2021 1 CONTENTS 1. Foreword …………………………………………………………………………… 4 2. Introduction: war, offensives and atrocities 2.1 Overview …………………………………………………………………………… 7 2.2 Early attempts to halt the fighting ……………………………………………… 10 2.3 The war escalates …………………………………………………………………. 13 3. Ethiopia at war 3.1 The Federal Government v Tigray Regional State ……………………………. 16 3.2 Prime Minister Abiy’s short-lived whirlwind of reform ……………………... 30 3.3 An inexorable drive towards conflict 2018 – 2020 …………………………….. 49 3.4 President Isaias and Prime Minister Abiy – who is in the driving seat? ……. 60 4. Progress of the war 4.1 ENDF offensives along the southwestern front ……………………………….. 73 4.2 The northern fronts ………………………………………………………………. 76 4.3 The Southern Front ………………………………………………………………. 78 4.4 The ENDF’s strategy ……………………………………………………………... 78 4.5 Retreat and consolidation ……………………………………………………….. 80 4.6 TDF expansion and the start of semi-conventional warfare …………………. 82 4.7 Overall War Progress: November 2020 to May 2021 …………………………. 84 4.8 Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………… 88 5. The Ethiopian national context 5.1 Contextualising the war in Tigray ……………………………………………… 91 5.2 A threat to Ethiopia’s integrity? ………………………………………………… 92 5.3 Conflict and the rule of law ……………………………………………………... 94 5.4 Oromia politics and conflict - optimism and excitement ……………………. 95 5.5 Amhara politics and conflict …………………………………………………… 102 5.6 The south, east and west ……………………………………………………….. 112 5.7 Somali Region …………………………………………………………………… 113 5.8 Afar Region ……………………………………………………………………… 115 5.9 Benishangul Gumuz ……………………………………………………………. 116 5.10 Socio-economic stakes and the cost of the war ………………………………. 117 5.11 Concluding remarks ……………………………………………………………. 119 6. Diplomatic Efforts 6.1 UN Security Council and the African Union ………………………………… 122 6.2 The United States of America …………………………………………………. -
Horn of Africa Civil Society Forum Report on Tigray
THE HORN OF AFRICA CIVIL SOCIETY FORUM REPORT ON TIGRAY Contents THE HORN OF AFRICA CIVIL SOCIETY FORUM REPORT ON TIGRAY .................................................. 0 About the Horn of Africa Civil Society Forum (HoACS Forum) .............................................................. 2 FORUM MEMBERS........................................................................................................................... 2 Report on the Breaches of International Law ......................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... 3 Methodology and Standard of Proof ................................................................................................ 11 Context ............................................................................................................................................... 12 Events occurring before the 4th of November 2020 .......................................................................... 12 Events occurring after the 4th of November 2020. ............................................................................ 14 International Legal Framework Applicable to the Tigray Crisis ........................................................ 17 Major Violations .................................................................................................................................. 18 Starvation as a weapon of -
Policy Briefing
Policy Briefing Africa Briefing N°89 Nairobi/Brussels, 22 August 2012 Ethiopia After Meles I. OVERVIEW tions under his tight control. Without him, however, the weaknesses of the regime he built will be more starkly exposed. The death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who had not been seen in public for several months, was announced on The transition will likely be an all-TPLF affair, even if 20 August 2012 by Ethiopian state television. The passing masked beneath the constitution, the umbrella of the of the man who has been Ethiopia’s epicentre for 21 years EPRDF and the prompt elevation of the deputy prime minis- will have profound national and regional consequences. ter, Hailemariam Desalegn, to acting head of government. Meles engineered one-party rule in effect for the Tigray Given the opacity of the inner workings of the govern- People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and his Tigrayan inner ment and army, it is impossible to say exactly what it will circle, with the complicity of other ethnic elites that were look like and who will end up in charge. Nonetheless, any co-opted into the ruling alliance, the Ethiopian People’s likely outcome suggests a much weaker government, a Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The Front more influential security apparatus and endangered inter- promised freedom, democracy and ethnic devolution but nal stability. The political opposition, largely forced into is highly centralised, tightly controls the economy and exile by Meles, will remain too fragmented and feeble to suppresses political, social, ethnic and religious liberties. play a considerable role, unless brought on board in an In recent years, Meles had relied ever more on repression internationally-brokered process. -
Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 57 - 16 January 2021
Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 57 - 16 January 2021 Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website. Reported war situation (as confirmed per 15 January) - During the last three days, there has been heavy fighting in Daero Hafash (East of Axum) where four battalions of Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and Eritrean Defense Forces (ErDF) were “totally destroyed” by Tigray forces. It is reported that Tigray forces captured “lots of weapons”. - It is reported that in a place called Dairo Hafash, Tigray forces overtook 4.000 troops of the ENDF/EriDF. - Fighting is going on in Tsigereda around Wukro between ENDF/ErDF and Tigray forces. - Reported that one battalion of ENDF/ErDF was “eliminated” by Tigray forces in Ruwa Gered on the way from Adwa to Edaga Arbi two days ago. - Reported fighting is ongoing in “various locations”. - Video circulating with shooting and people running in Addis Ababa. No further information. - In a meeting at Mekelle University staff with the appointed chief of the Tigray provisional government, Mulu Nega, a number of ‘difficult questions’ were raised during a hot debate. -
The Tigray War & Regional Implications
THE TIGRAY WAR & REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS (VOLUME 1) November 2020 to June 2021 1 CONTENTS 1. Foreword …………………………………………………………………………… 4 2. Introduction: war, offensives and atrocities 2.1 Overview …………………………………………………………………………… 7 2.2 Early attempts to halt the fighting ……………………………………………… 10 2.3 The war escalates …………………………………………………………………. 13 3. Ethiopia at war 3.1 The Federal Government v Tigray Regional State ……………………………. 16 3.2 Prime Minister Abiy’s short-lived whirlwind of reform ……………………... 30 3.3 An inexorable drive towards conflict 2018 – 2020 …………………………….. 49 3.4 President Isaias and Prime Minister Abiy – who is in the driving seat? ……. 60 4. Progress of the war 4.1 ENDF offensives along the southwestern front ……………………………….. 73 4.2 The northern fronts ………………………………………………………………. 76 4.3 The Southern Front ………………………………………………………………. 78 4.4 The ENDF’s strategy ……………………………………………………………... 78 4.5 Retreat and consolidation ……………………………………………………….. 80 4.6 TDF expansion and the start of semi-conventional warfare …………………. 82 4.7 Overall War Progress: November 2020 to May 2021 …………………………. 84 4.8 Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………… 88 5. The Ethiopian national context 5.1 Contextualising the war in Tigray ……………………………………………… 91 5.2 A threat to Ethiopia’s integrity? ………………………………………………… 92 5.3 Conflict and the rule of law ……………………………………………………... 94 5.4 Oromia politics and conflict - Optimism and excitement ……………………. 95 5.5 Amhara politics and conflict …………………………………………………… 102 5.6 The south, east and west ……………………………………………………….. 112 5.7 Somali Region …………………………………………………………………… 113 5.8 Afar Region ……………………………………………………………………… 115 5.9 Benishangul Gumuz ……………………………………………………………. 116 5.10 Socio-economic stakes and the cost of the war ………………………………. 117 5.11 Concluding remarks ……………………………………………………………. 119 6. Diplomatic Efforts 6.1 UN Security Council and the African Union ………………………………… 122 6.2 The United States of America …………………………………………………. -
From Left-Wing Liberation Army Into a Government: the Challenges of Transition and the Case of Tplf/Eprdf
FROM LEFT-WING LIBERATION ARMY INTO A GOVERNMENT: THE CHALLENGES OF TRANSITION AND THE CASE OF TPLF/EPRDF By Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe MPA: Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), 2005 MBA: Open University of London, 2003 BA: Amsterdam School of Business, 2002 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSHOPHY In the school of Public Administration @Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe, 2018 University of Victoria All rights reserved. This dissertation may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without the permission of the author. FROM LEFT-WING LIBERATION ARMY INTO A GOVERNMENT: THE CHALLENGES OF TRANSITION AND THE CASE OF TPLF/EPRDF By Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe MPA: Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), 2005 MBA: Open University of London, 2003 BA: Amsterdam School of Business, 2002 Supervisory Committee: Dr. Evert Lindquist, Supervisor School of Public Administration, University of Victoria Dr. Thea Vakil, Department Member School of Public Administration, University of Victoria Dr. Marlea Clarke, Outside Member Department of Political Science, University of Victoria Dr. Martin Bunton, Outside Member Department of History, University of Victoria Dr. Alex de Waal, Additional Member The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University ii Abstract The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is a reform rebellion that came to power in 1991 and continues to rule with varying level of success in accordance to its promises. This dissertation attempts to provide a full account of the evolution of the EPRDF government and challenges to its promised state building project, and seeks to explore the extent to which its early guiding philosophy and leadership evolved and shaped its transition to and performance as a government. -
Disinformation in Tigray
Disinformation in Tigray: Manufacturing Consent For a Secessionist War May 2021 Cover Photo: TPLF leader “Aboy” (father) Sebhat Nega captured by Ethiopian National Defense Forces on January 8, 2021. (Courtesy of Ethiopian News Agency) Acknowledgements The preparers of this report by New Africa Institute would like to thank officials from the African Union, United Nations, Ethiopia and Eritrea for their assistance. New Africa Institute 601 West 26th Street Suite 325-53 New York, NY 10001 © New Africa Institute, 2021. Published on May 9, 2021. This material is offered free of charge for personal and non-commercial use, provided the source is acknowledged. For commercial or any other use, prior written permission must be obtained from the New Africa Institute. In no case may this material be altered, rented or sold. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS HISTORICAL CONTEXT ................................................................................................................................................................... III LOWERING EVIDENTIARY STANDARDS ..................................................................................................................................... 8 “COMMUNICATIONS BLACKOUT” .................................................................................................................................................................................. 8 “RESTRICTED HUMANITARIAN ACCESS” ..................................................................................................................................................................