Reversing Africa's Decline. Worldwatch Paper

DOCUMENT RESUME ED 258 898 SO 016650 AUTHOR Brown, Lester R.; MAI, Edward C. TITLE ReVersing_Africa's Decline. Worldwatch P-ver 65. INSTITUTICO Worldwatch Inst., Washington,.D.C. SPONS AGENCY United Nationt'Pund for PopulationActivities, New Noik, N.Y. -REPORT NO ISBN -0- 916468 -65-8 PUB DATE Jun 85 v NOTE 84p. AVAILABLE FROMWorldwatch Institute, 1776 Massachusetts Ave:, N.W., Washington, DC 20036 ($4.00). ,\ PUB TYPE Viewpoints (120) ERRS PRICE MF01 Plus Postage. PC Not Available fromEDRS. ,DESCRIPTORS Agriculture; Consetintion..(Envitonment); Ecological Factors; Economic Factors; Forestry;*Hunger; Population Growth; Soil Conservation; *World Problems IDENTIFIERS *Africa; Soil Restoration ABSTRACT This paper highlights,.some of thethemes that any successgul strategy to reverse the declineof Africa must embrace. ,,Africa is a continent experiencing a breakdownin the relationship between people and their natural support systems.Famine and the threat,of'famtne are am' ng the manifestationsof this breakdown. This decline can be reversed. To do sO willrequire an abrupt departure .from. the "business"as usual" approach thatAfrican governments and' ':the interna0onal community havemounted so far in response to the i,00d crisis. Beneath the 'urgent workof providing food aid and resettling families displaced bytaminer a long-term strategy of environmental restoration is essential toreversing. recent trends. Slowing population growth,conserving'soils,restoring forests and woodlands, and enhancing subsistenceagriculture are sure to be cornerstones of successful efforts toreestablish working economies", in.Africa. These priorities can provide afoundation for African aspiratious,and an agenda for internationalassistance. (Rid) ( *********************************************************************** Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the bestthat, can be made from the original document. *******t*************************************************************** 4 kt VA. OSPASTIMONT Of IOUCATION . "PERMISSION TO REPRODUCETHIS NATIONAL INSTITUTE ONEOUCATION EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION MATERIAL IN MICROFICHE ONLY, CENTER IERIC; AS BEEN GRANTED Y This document hrobeenreproduced ill 1tteived from the person or orgonLretion \1_ 6\ originating it. C l . Minor changes nowt been mods to improve rprodut.tion quality. Points of Ana Ir opinions stated in this docu 1 TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES mom do not ncesanly represent officio! NIE INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC)." position or calico. 110 tZ A I 40 S =10.1cmi AIIMIILM01011.1110.1.11111.011.7 Worldwatch Institute is an independent, nonprofit research organize. tion created to analyze And to focus attention on global problems. Directed by Lester R. Frown, Worldwatch Is funded by private foun dations and United Nations organizations.' Worldwatch papers are written for a worldwide audience of decision makefs, scholars, and the general public. a Reversing Africa'sDecline Lester R. Brown Edward C. Wolf 414 a '1 4 Worldwatch Paper;65 June 1985 I Financial support for this paper was provided by the United Nations Fund for Population Activities. Sections ofthe paper may be reproduced Lnmagazines and newspapers with acknowledgment to Woridwatch Institute.;. The views expressed are those of the authors anddo not necessarily represent those of Woridwatch institute and its directors, officers, or staff, or of the United Nations Fundfor Population Activities. 4)Copyright Woridwatch Institute, 1985 Library, of Congress CatalogCSrd Number 85-51311 ISBN 0-916468-65-8 Printed on recycled paper . e Preface e. 'S. , , ; This Worldwatch Paper foc4e.s on asingle' continent, thus departing from earlier papers in a senes. thattypically has' dealt with global issues. We decicied tg,-fOeus on -Africabecause it is such a special situation, a continent experiencing abreakdown in the relationship between .people and their natural supportsystems. Famine, and the threat of famine,' arg among the manifestationsof this breakdown. We have chosen to call this paperReversing Africa's Decline. We be- lieve the, decline can be royersed; todo so will require an abrupt departure from the "business asusual" approach that African governments and the internationalcommunity have mounted so far in response the food crisis. Beneaththe urgent work of providing food aid and resettling familiesdisplaced by famine, a long-term strategy of environmentalrestoration is essential to reversing recent trends. This paper highlights someof the them9s that any successful strategy.must embrace.. Most analyses of Africa's declinehave focused on drought, the disar- ray of nationaleconomiesr'llici, the continent's tumultuouspolitics. Few have recognized that a newapproach to development is re- quired. The strategy we proposemight -be termed "resource-based." Slowing population growthconservingsoils, restoring forests and woodlands, and enhancing subsistenceagriculture are sure to be' 'cornerstones of successful efforts toreestablish working economies in Africa. These priorities ranprovide a foundation for African as- pirations and an agenda forinternational assistance. We are indebted tomane people who shared with as their time, insight, and expertise. EdwardAyensu, Leonard Berry, Robert Browne, Michael DovZr, RobertGoodland, Kenneth Hare, LindaHar- rar, Norman Myers,Sharon Nicholson, StephenSchneider, jagadish Shukla, Jyoti Singh, MauriceS,trong, J.A.N. Wallis, andCharles E. Weiss reviewed an early draftof the manuscript on short notice. Sharon Nicholson kindlypermitted us to reproduce herunpublished data on rainfall in Africa. HansHurni in Ethiopia and HenryElwell in Zimbabwe enriched our awarenessof efforts in those countries to understand and confront landdegradation. Angela Coyle.provided invaluable research assistance.To all of them, we extend our ap- preciation; for errors that remain, weaccept sole responsibility. Lester R. Brawn and EdwardC. Wolf 6 ti Table of Contents Introduction 7. Ecological Deteripration and Economic Decline 10 Population-Induced Climate Chat*? 19 Braking Population Growth' 30 Restofing African Soils 37 'Replanting African Forests 46 rg 430 Getting Agriculture Moving 55 Elements of 4a Reversal Strategy 65 Notes 73 Introduction indi- A. report from the U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa in 1978 cated that the Ethiopian Highlands were losing over a billiori tons of, topsoil per year through erosion. Any ag- ronomist who 'saw that report knew that unlessimmediate action was taken to arrest the loss, Ethiopiawas'headed for a famine even greater than the one th:.: toppled Haile Selassie's government four years earlier. The only question wasexact), when it would come.' For those who are not agronomists, the reported lossof topsoil was an abstraction. Only when ittranslated into images of starving Ethi- opian children on television screens around theworld some six years later did this gradual'loss of topsoil acquire ahuman dimension. This Ethiopian example typifies what ishappening in Africa today. Reports from agronomists, ecologists, foresters,hydrologists, and meteorologists indicate that growing human demands areeroding life support systems throughout the continent.The pieces of this emerg- ing mosaic of a continent in d zcline arefound in studies by United Nations agencies, the World Bank, the U.S. Agencyfor International Development, and others. As surely as soil erosion.undermined agriculture in Ethiopia's Highlands, these trends of ecologicaldeteriora- tion, if not reversed, will undermine Africa's economicfuture. Although essentially agrarian, Africa is losing the ability tofeed itself. In 1984, 140 milliOn of its 531 million people werefed entirely with grain from abroad. In 1985, the ranks of thosefed from abroad, already nearly half as large as the population ofNorth America, will almost certainly increase. A mid-Febryiary assessmentof Africa's food situation by the United Nations rep`6rted that some10 million people had left their villages in search of food, manyof them crowded into *. 8 . O ha lily erected relief camps. In 'late April, the Economic Commission for Africa reported that starvation deaths had !Aped the we million mark, reminding people everywhere that space-age technologiesand 8 famine coexist. In Africa, as elsewhere in the Third World, cereals supply twp-thirds to four-fifths of caloric intake, making per capita gramproducfion a basic indicator of both economic productivity and individual welfare. During the two decades following World War. II, grain} production per person in Africa either remainedsteady or increased slightly, peaking in 1967.at 180 kilograms. Thislevel, roughly onei,ouncl of grain per day, .is widely, viewed as the subsistence threshold,below which malnutrition begins to erode human development and labor productivity. Since 1967 per capita grain production has beende-dining. In 1983 and 1984, years in which low rainfall depressed theharvest, per capita grain production was 118 and 120 kilogramsrespectively, down more than a third from the peak. (See Figure 1.)Although the decline has been more precipitous in some countries than in others, few countries have escaped this trend.3 As per capitarain production .has declined in this agrarian society, so has per 'capita income.The Africaministers responsible for economic development and planning are nowpainfully aware of this trend. At an April 1985 meeting the. Economic Commisgion for Africa, they drafted a memorandifinfn to the Unite] NationsEconomic and Social Council, which was in effect a plea forhelp. They observed that, "As a result

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