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Rising China: Power and Reassurance RISING CHINA: POWER AND REASSURANCE RISING CHINA: POWER AND REASSURANCE EDITED BY RON HUISKEN Published by ANU E Press The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at: http://epress.anu.edu.au/rising_china_citation.html National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Rising China : power and reassurance / editor: Ron Huisken. ISBN 9781921536588 (pbk.) 9781921536595 (pdf) Notes: Bibliography. Subjects: National interest--China. Confidence and security building measures (International relations)--China. Security, International. International relations. China--Foreign relations. China--Politics and government--21st century Other Authors/Contributors: Huisken, R. H. (Ronald Herman), 1946- Dewey Number: 327.51 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design by ANU E Press Printed by University Printing Services, ANU This edition © 2009 ANU E Press Table of Contents Acknowledgements vii Contributors ix Introduction 1 Ron Huisken China’s key bilateral relationships: partners or just peers? America 1. The outlook for US–China relations 9 Ron Huisken 2. Closer and more balanced: China–US relations in transition 21 Jia Qingguo Japan 3. China–Japan relations at a new juncture 33 Zhang Tuosheng 4. Japanese perspectives on the rise of China 45 Koji Watanabe India and Russia 5. Sino–Indian relations and the rise of China 51 Sandy Gordon 6. The rise of Chindia and its impact on the world system 65 Zhao Gancheng 7. Sino–Russian relations in the ‘post’-Putin era 79 Yu Bin Alliances, military balances and strategic policy 8. How China thinks about national security 103 Xia Liping 9. China’s national defence: challenges and responses 119 Fan Gaoyue 10. China’s defence industries: change and continuity 125 Richard Bitzinger and J. D. Kenneth Boutin v Rising China: Power and Reassurance Multilateral processes: countering or reflecting regional cleavages? 11. China’s participation in Asian multilateralism: pragmatism prevails 147 Mingjiang Li 12. The perils and prospects of dragon riding: reassurance and ‘costly signals’ in China–ASEAN relations 165 See Seng Tan 13. ‘Architectural alternatives or alternatives to architecture?’ 185 Robert Ayson and Brendan Taylor vi Acknowledgements The conference on which this book is based was made possible by an Australian Research Council (ARC) Linkage Grant (with the Department of Defence as `industry partner'), awarded to the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre in 2005. The editor is indebted to the ARC and the Department of Defence for this support. In addition to the authors represented in this volume, a number of people made an invaluable contribution as panellists or discussants to the broader dialogue that took place during the course of the conference. The editor would like to express his gratitude to the following people in this regard: Dr Doug Kean from the Office of National Assessments; Dr Rod Lyon and Dr Mark Thomson from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute; Dr Malcolm Cook from the Lowy Foundation; and Professor Robin Jeffrey, Professor Hugh White, Professor Paul Dibb, Professor Geremie Barme, Professor Anthony Milner, Admiral (Rtd) Chris Barrie and Dr Richard Brabin-Smith, all from The Australian National University. vii Contributors See Seng Tan See Seng Tan is an Associate Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He directs the school's research program on multilateralism and regionalism as well as its executive education department. He previously served as the Deputy Head of Graduate Studies. His most recent publication is Bandung Revisited: The legacy of the 1955 Asian±African Conference for International Order (co-edited with Amitav Acharya, 2008, National University of Singapore Press). He recently completed a stint as Visiting Research Associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Asia (IISS-Asia). Koji Watanabe Koji Watanabe is Senior Fellow at the Japan Center for International Exchange. Joining the Foreign Ministry in 1956, Koji served as Japanese Ambassador to Saudi Arabia (1988±89), Italy (1992±93) and Russia (1993±96), and Minister in Beijing (1981±84), Deputy Foreign Minister, Sherpa for the G7 Houston and London summits and Japanese co-chairman of the US±Japan Structural Impediments Initiative Talks. Now President of The Japan Forum, he was on the Board of Governors of the Asia±Europe Foundation (ASEF) and the National Public Safety Commission, and former Executive Advisor to the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren). Richard A. Bitzinger Richard A. Bitzinger is a Senior Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, where his work focuses on military and defence issues relating to the Asia-Pacific region, including the challenges of defence transformation in the Asia-Pacific, regional military modernisation activities and local defence industries, arms production and weapons proliferation. Richard was previously an Associate Professor with the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), Honolulu, Hawai'i, and also worked for the RAND Corporation, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Affairs and the US Government. Fan Gaoyue Fan Gaoyue, born in 1952, joined the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in 1970 and has worked in the PLA Academy of Military Science since 1989. Now a Senior Colonel and Research Fellow in the academy, Fan's research and writing has focused on American affairs, including joint operations, military training, military strategy and military transformation. ix Rising China: Power and Reassurance Li Mingjiang Li Mingjiang is Assistant Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. His main research interests include the rise of China in the context of East Asian regional relations and Sino±American relations, China's diplomatic history and domestic sources of China's international strategies. He teaches two courses: the History and International Politics of the Cold War and Chinese Security and Foreign Policy. He received his PhD in Political Science from Boston University. He has also studied at the Foreign Affairs University (Beijing) and the Hopkins-Nanjing Center. He was a diplomatic correspondent for Xinhua News Agency from 1999 to 2001. Li has previously taught political science and Chinese politics at Boston University, Tufts University and Suffolk University. He has published and presented papers on China's domestic politics and foreign policy. Qingguo Jia Qingguo Jia is Professor and Associate Dean of the School of International Studies of Peking University. He received his PhD from Cornell University in 1988. He was a Research Fellow at the Brookings Institution between 1985 and 1986. He has taught at the University of Vermont, Cornell University, the University of California at San Diego, the University of Sydney in Australia and Peking University. He has published extensively on US±China relations, relations between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan, Chinese foreign policy and Chinese politics. Zhang Tuosheng Zhang Tuosheng is a Senior Fellow, Chairman of the Academic Assessments Committee and Director of Research with the China Foundation for International Strategic Studies. Formerly an officer in the PLA, he was posted to the United Kingdom in the early 1990s as the Deputy Defence Attaché. His main research interests are Sino±American relations, Sino±Japanese relations, Asia-Pacific security and Chinese foreign policy. Yu Bin Yu Bin is Professor of Political Science at Wittenberg University (Ohio, United States) and Senior Research Fellow at the Shanghai Association of American Studies. Yu earned his PhD from Stanford University (1991) and his MA from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (1982). Yu's professional activities have included attachments to Fudan University, Stanford University and the East West Center in Hawai'i. Yu is the author and co-author of several books and more than 60 scholarly articles. His current research focus includes China±Russia relations. x Contributors Ron Huisken Ron Huisken is Senior Fellow at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, The Australian National University. He spent a number of years at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and the UN Centre for Disarmament Affairs before joining government (1981±2001), predominantly the Departments of Foreign Affairs and Trade and of Defence. He returned to academia in 2001 with research interests in US security policies, East Asian security processes and non-proliferation. Robert Ayson Robert Ayson directs The Australian National University's Graduate Studies in Strategy and Defence Program and is a Senior Fellow in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, The Australian National University. He has taught in New Zealand universities and served as an adviser to the New Zealand Parliamentary Select Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade. The author of Thomas Schelling and the Nuclear Age (2004, Frank Cass, London and New York), his research interests include strategic concepts, Asia-Pacific stability and Australia±New Zealand defence issues. Brendan Taylor Brendan Taylor is a lecturer in the Graduate
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