SPECIAL REPORT

The protests are here to stay: Social change and mobilisation of citizens in Latin America

Madrid, october 2013

BARCELONA BEIJING BOGOTÁ BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO PANAMÁ QUITO RIO DE JANEIRO SÃO PAULO SANTO DOMINGO THE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA

1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION 2. COMMON FEATURES OF THE PROTEST MOVEMENTS Chile hit the world headlines in 2006 and 2011 with student protests 3. CONCLUSIONS that put in a tight spot both centre-left governments such as that headed by Michelle Bachelet (2006-2010) and centre-right executives LLORENTE & CUENCA such as that headed by Sebastián Piñera (2010-2014).

The saucepan-bashing demonstrators took the streets of Buenos Aires in 2012 and in 2013 it was Dilma Rousseff’s Brazil’s turn. Just when the country was celebrating the FIFA Confederations Cup, a prelude to the World Cup 2014, there was a wave of protests in the principal cities of the country. And the protests in Sao Paulo, Río de Janeiro and Brasilia had scarcely ended when the streets of Lima were also filled with demonstrators protesting against Ollanta Humala’s government.

The question that comes to mind is whether Latin America is entering an era marked by the turmoil of urban protests and social demands. The seeds of such phenomena have already been experienced in other countries such as Uruguay and Costa Rica and similar situations are expected to arise sooner rather than later in Mexico and Colombia.

These social protests in Chile, Brazil and Peru have a number of very special features, unprecedented in the region. They occur in a triple context of:

• Economic growth (not crisis, as in other times in the history of these countries or the current situation in Europe),

• Social change (emergence of heterogeneous urban middle classes) and

• Situation of clear dissatisfaction with the inefficient functioning of the State, the public administrations and delegitimisation of the parties and political class.

This report characterises these protest movements, studies their local dynamics in each country and makes a prospective analysis: where are they going and what effect could they have in the short term.

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2. COMMON FEATURES OF So all these movements have THE PROTEST MOVEMENTS three basic features in common, which can be summed up saying The participants in these that the economic situation movements, which have spread prevailing in the region as from throughout Latin America, are 2003 produced a social change from the new emerging classes, that has had serious, direct especially the urban middle political repercussions: classes and younger strata of the population. At first sight at least, They occur in situations of “In the past, these waves there is no clear leadership and economic stability of protests occurred they are pragmatic movements (seeking specific improvements, The first characteristic of all these at times of crisis and rather than political utopias) movements is an unprecedented accumulated political and although there is a certain phenomenon. They take place in socioeconomic tensions” presence of radical or ultra-left a situation of economic stability groups (such as the Communist and even relative prosperity, Party in the student protests in with economic growth of over 4%. Chile). Moreover, naturally, the new social networks (Facebook That same continuous, constant and Twitter) play a decisive role growth of the GDP in the region is in their origin and development behind many of the social changes and almost certainly in their that have happened (reduction prolongation over time. of poverty and inequality and a significant growth of the middle classes) and which are related GROWTH OF THE ECONOMY IN LATIN AMERICA with the current protests. Country 2010 2011 2012 2013* Argentina 9.2 8.9 1.9 3.5 In the past, these waves of protests occurred at times of Bolivia 4.1 5.2 5.2 5.5 crisis and accumulated political Brazil 6.9 2.7 0.9 2.5 and socioeconomic tensions. For Chile 5.8 5.9 5.6 4.6 example, the closest in time Colombia 4.0 6.6 4.0 4.0 were the protests in the late Costa Rica 5.0 4.4 5.1 3.0 nineties and beginning of the Cuba 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.0 following decade, which brought down the governments of Raúl Ecuador 2.8 7.4 5.0 3.8 Cubas (1999) on Paraguay, El Salvador 1.4 2.0 1.6 2.0 Fernando de la Rúa (2001) in Guatemala 2.9 4.2 3.0 3.0 Argentina, Gonzalo Sánchez Haiti -5.4 5.6 2.8 3.5 de Lozada (2003) in Bolivia Honduras 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.0 and Lucio Gutiérrez (2005) in Mexico 5.3 3.9 3.9 2.8 Ecuador, among others. All these governments collapsed following Nicaragua 3.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 massive citizen protests (then Panama 7.5 10.8 10.7 7.5 called “golpes de calle” Paraguay 13.1 4.3 -1.2 12.5 [street uprisings] —massive Peru 8.8 6.9 6.3 5.9 demonstrations that brought Dominican Republic 7.8 4.5 3.9 3.0 Uruguay 8.9 6.5 3.9 3.8 Venezuela -1.5 4.2 5.6 1.0 Sub-total Latin America 5.7 4.4 3.0 3.0

Source: Cepal 3 THE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA

about the downfall of those Therefore, the underlying cause governments—) and occurred in of the current social unrest is that economically adverse five- not economic (as in the eighties year period called the Lost Half or between 1997 and 2003), Decade between 1997 and 2002 but rather political and social, “The underlying cause of (which witnessed the fall of the although the effects of economic the current social unrest Ecuador governments of Abdalá growth have been a very Bucaram in 1997 and Jamil important variable in triggering is not economic (as in the Mahuad in 2000). transformations of that nature. eighties or between 1997 and 2003), but rather Now, however, the economic Led by emerging middle classes growth figures of Latin American political and social” countries are not only high, but As mentioned earlier, these moreover consolidated since demonstrations were led 2003, with the sole exception mainly by the emerging and of 2009. The region got over consolidated urban middle the world crisis without any classes in Latin America. great difficulty. These ten years of high, continuous growth in the region accompanied by social policies, especially conditioned transfers, have brought a significant POVERTY IN LATIN AMERICA reduction of poverty (from 225 Poverty continues to fall in the region, to 167 million people between but still affects 167 million people 2002 and 2012) and extreme poverty (from 99 to 66 million). Poverty Extreme According to figures published poverty by the World Bank, “the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita 225 on the continent rose at an average 204 215 Million people rate of 2.2% p.a. between 2000 and 2010. In six countries (including 184 Argentina, the Dominican Republic, 179 168 167 Panama and Peru), the annual growth rates of over 3% per capita 136 were produced during this period… The combination of sustained growth (albeit far from spectacular) and the reduction of inequality led to a considerable lowering of 99 95 91 the absolute poverty figures. The 73 62 69 66 66 rate of moderate poverty in Latin America was lowered from 44.4% 1980 1990 1999 2002 2009 2010 2011 2012 in 2000 to 28% in 2010, in spite of the global financial crisis in Source: Cepal y AFP

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the last two years of the decade in public transport in Brazil in (World Bank, 2011). This reduction 2013. That heterogeneous urban of poverty meant that there were middle class we are describing is 50 million fewer Latin Americans strongly present in all of them. The living in poverty in 2010 than 10 Brazilian example is significant years earlier. If compared with in this regard, since around 2003, the reduction in absolute thirty-five million Brazilians have figures is even greater: 75 million.” moved out of poverty since 2003. Whereas in the 1990s up to 25% of “The World Bank defines 75 million people who have the Brazilian population lived in the Latin American middle moved out of poverty to join extreme poverty, that number was the different strata of middle reduced to 2.2% by 2009. classes as ‘urban, with classes (heterogeneous and highly better education levels, diversified), which have grown But what do we understand by mostly employees in the and over the same years. middle class?

private sector and with As pointed out by the World There is no consensus in the beliefs and opinions Bank, “After decades of academic world of what is which, in general, stagnation, the middle class understood by middle classes, coincide with those of population in Latin America and since the definitions given from the Caribbean has grown by the points of view of sociology (a their poorer and less 50% from 103 million people in lifestyle), psychology and economy educated compatriots’” 2003 to 152 million (or 30% of (income brackets ranging from 10 the population of the continent) to 50 dollars a day per capita) do in 2009. During this period, as not always coincide. The World household income grew and Bank defines the Latin American inequality tended to diminish in middle classes as ‘urban, with most countries, the percentage better education levels, mostly of poor population fell employees in the private sector considerably, from 44% to 30%. having beliefs and opinions which Consequently, the percentages generally coincide with those of of middle class population and their poorer and less educated poor people in Latin America compatriots’. are currently equal. This situation contrasts with the This segment of population is situation prevailing (for a long now the most important link in time) up to almost 10 years ago, the regional economy owing to when the percentage of poor its purchasing power and many population was equivalent to experts consider that its sudden approximately 2.5 times that of appearance is the greatest social the middle class.” change in the history of the region since the migrations from country There are at the same time marked to city in the fifties and sixties. But differences and close parallel in it is a very heterogeneous middle the mass student protests in Chile class, as shown in the following in 2011, the saucepan-bashing graph. It includes sectors half protests in Buenos Aires in 2012 and way between poverty and the the protests against the increase middle class (those with incomes

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of 4-10 dollars a day) and within That complexity mentioned by the middle class itself there is a Iglesias arises because the middle broad spread between the lowest classes feel left out of a system incomes (10 dollars a day) and the that does not take them into highest incomes, which do not fall account or provide any solutions far short of the lower end of the to their most urgent claims. élite (50 dollars a day). Andas mentioned in the World Bank report, the governments This appearance and growth of the are running up a double deficit “The World Bank has middle classes contributes towards in respect of the demands of the warned of the growing the shaping of more modern, middle classes: but also more complex societies. unrest of the middle The Secretary General of SEGIB, They do not incorporate “the classes over the fact that Enrique Iglesias, has been warning objective of equal opportunities, ‘the middle classes are about this for some time: “We especially in public policies. are going to have a new society This is fundamental to ensure increasingly required to of middle classes. We are already that the middle classes feel that pay for services which are seeing evidence of this. Societies they live in a society in which it provided free for others’” of middle classes that are difficult is worth making an effort and to govern. Certain of their features where merits are rewarded, require a change in the way we do instead of a society that favours politics; they are middle societies the privileged groups.” which demand new services, new ways of participating and good The World Bank has warned of quality services; this is the case the growing unrest of the middle of education.” classes over the fact that ‘the middle classes are increasingly required to pay for services which TRENDS IN THE MIDDLE CLASSES, VULNERABILITY AND POVERTY are provided free for others. A IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN, 1995-2009 system of dual social protection based on selective assistance for the poor and on insurance 50 (subsidised) for the middle classes 45 might also be inadequately adapted for a large, vulnerable 40 population that is neither poor 35 nor middle class and whose vulnerability will increase if the 30 external environment becomes 25 less favourable than in the past.”

20 Poor (US$0-4/day) The World Bank also reveals that 15 Vulnerable the public policies have so far (US$4-10/day) not been capable of putting an

Percentage of population Percentage 10 Middle class end to “the vicious circle of low 5 (US$10-50/day) taxes and poor quality public services which leads the middle 0 and high classes to opt out.” 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: World Bank

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Growing political dissatisfaction have occurred in Chile, Brazil among citizens and Peru, since, being unable to channel their unrest through “The great paradox of The great paradox of these protest the political system, all these these protest movements movements is, therefore, that they emerging social sectors have taken occur in economically successful it to the streets. The writer Moisés is, therefore, that they countries with modernised Naím has highlighted the parallel occur in economically societies (the middle classes between all these movements successful countries with have grown and poverty and even and their common political inequality have been reduced). roots: they begin with small modernised societies” incidents which start to grow, the “Prosperity cannot buy stability”, governments react inadequately —according to the analyst and (with repression, reproach or writer Moisés Naím—. “The merely ignoring the protests) and greatest surprise of these street this further fuels the discontent of protests is that they take place these social sectors, which have in economically successful no clear leaders. countries… Brazil has not only moved millions of people out of Therefore, the political system poverty, but has even managed to does not appear to be capable reduce its inequality. In all those of dealing with the demands countries the middle class is now of those middle classes, which larger than ever.” themselves embody a social but also political change, as stressed Those economic and social by the secretary general of SEGIB, changes are not being channelled Enrique Iglesias: “A middle class by the political system, which has that is practically dominating been incapable of adapting to the the world. The figures vary, new circumstances; it still acts in but almost certainly 50% of the the same way as in the eighties, population in Latin American when democracy returned to countries are middle class. That is the region. There is a growing an important phenomenon which rift between the State and those must be administered politically, middle classes. The World Bank and this task entails a new way of concludes that “The middle doing politics.” classes will not participate in or contribute to an improved social The political systems have proved contract if the assets they value themselves inefficient (they do not so highly (such as protection of provide solutions or answers to the civil rights, education, police social demands for better public and the health services) are services) and do not arouse citizen inadequately provided by the support, for several reasons: State and if they don’t perceive that the rich are contributing • Inefficient State faced with a fairly to the social contract.” revolution of expectations

This explains the widespread What these governments expressions of discontent that actually face is a revolution

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of expectations which they to the Adimark poll, have so far been unable although there has been to channel or organise: an upturn in recent times the emerging sectors have to around 37-39%. moved on to a new stage and they want and demand, »» In Argentina, Cristina above all, more and better Kirchner, re-elected in public services. the first round in 2011 with 54.1% of the votes, According to Moisés Naím: “In has just seen her political societies going through rapid party defeated in the transformation, the demand principal districts in the “What these for public services grows faster local elections, obtaining governments actually than the governments are able just 25% of the votes, face is a revolution of to meet it. This causes a rift 30 points down on what that brings people out onto she obtained two years expectations which they the streets to protest against ago, before the wave of have so far been unable the government and fuels saucepan-bashing protests to channel or organise” other highly justified protests: were unleashed in 2012. the prohibitive cost of higher education in Chile, or the »» Dilma Rousseff, who had impunity of corrupt politicians 58% approval in March, in Brazil.” saw her popularity fall by 20 points in June — As a result of this revolution following the wave of of unchannelled expectations protests coinciding with and consequent unrest, the Confederations Cup— certain governments have lost sliding to 30% according to considerable support, even to a Data folha poll in July. the point of electoral defeat, owing to their inability to »» The Peruvian Ollanta give a political response to Humala has faced the social demands. protests in Lima just when his popularity was falling, This is illustrated with a few as observed in an Ipsos examples: poll, showing that her acceptance fell from 54% »» In Chile, Sebastián Piñera in February to 33% in July. has had very low levels of popular acceptance ¿What are those middle throughout his term in classes asking of the political office: he was elected class? Better public services in the second round with and a less corrupt, less 51.6% of the votes, but patronage political system. over the years of strong Enhanced public services student protests citizen (education, health, transport approval dropped to and citizen security) lead to below 30%, according improved purchasing power,

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since fewer funds need to new, with their aims and be tied up in private medical ambitions, they increase insurance, private education their demands on the State. or private security. The consolidated middle classes can continue using As reflected by Michael private education or health Shifter, president of Inter- systems, but the new middle American Dialogue, “[all classes need improvements that unrest] is a product of and more accessible public economic and social progress systems to be able to and the expansion of the consolidate their status. middle class in countries such Moreover, the middle classes “Those middle classes, as Brazil, Mexico, Chile and that miss out on globalisation Colombia. Many young people would also benefit from a mostly politically in the middle classes in Latin general improvement of the disorganised, have a America (students in Chile and public systems.” significant political Brazil, teachers and lecturers influence because their in Uruguay) are disenchanted This reflection coincides with with traditional politics, both the figures of the Americas demands put pressure right-wing and left-wing. Barometer, which indicates, on governments which They want the governments, for example, that “in the last are not usually ready to which now have more funds, decade, the Brazilians are to provide higher quality among the Latin American respond quickly” services and they are tired citizens most dissatisfied with of corruption and mistaken the welfare services provided spending priorities.” by the government. Much of this situation is probably That dissatisfaction with due to the high taxes paid by deficient public services, Brazilians (around 36% of the sometimes —as in Brazil— GDP) and the perception that exacerbated with heavy tax they are paying taxes at rich burdens, explain much of country levels in exchange what has been happening for services more fitting of in Latin America. Indeed, poor countries.” those middle classes, mostly politically disorganised, have The ten most dissatisfied a significant political influence countries include, apart from because their demands put Brazil (third), Chile (fourth) pressure on governments and Peru (sixth), two nations which are not usually ready to that have suffered this type of respond quickly. social protests. The protests in Chile in 2006 and 2011-12 As indicated by Ludolfo focused on education and, Paramio, lecturer at the above all, on how to rebuild the CSIC (Spanish Scientific university system and finance Research Council), “Owing higher education. According to the very nature of the to Micheal Read, editor of middle classes, both old and The Economist specialising in

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Latin America: “In all cases the protests that have taken they are expressions of the place in recent years in the discontent of citizens who region. Chile set the protest are less poor, less worried, ball rolling with the “penguin at least for the time being, revolution” in 2006-07, the “The system losses its about the economic situation unrest over the inadequate and much more demanding as operation of Transantiago legitimacy in the eyes of regards what they want from (the public transport system its citizens, who see that the State and political system. in Santiago) afterwards and the State is incapable Although the specific demands in this decade the university are different, they have that protests in 2011, which of providing them in common.” caused Sebastián Piñera so with physical or legal many headaches. security, or adequate • Loss of legitimacy of the system Behind them all was a public services” “revolution of expectations” A revolution of expectations of the middle classes not that have not been met by the State. “Part of adequately met has a direct this problem is caused by the political repercussion: the success of the Concertación1: system losses its legitimacy in 20 years it managed to in the eyes of its citizens, open up access to education who see that the State considerably. Secondary is incapable of providing education was made universal them with physical or legal and university education security, or adequate public grew. But with a loan system services and sometimes, as with interest rates at 10% in the case of Venezuela and p.a., the problem blew Argentina, even controlling up. And it has done so now inflation. As also mentioned because the students are in the Americas Barometer, now finishing their university “in 2012, around 65% of studies. In 1990, one out Brazilians perceived that the of every five Chileans in political system was corrupt… university age got into higher and (Brazil) was twenty- education; now it is one out second out of 26 countries of every two”, comments in the Americas in 2012 in Patricio Navia, lecturer at support for the national the Diego Portales University. political institutions.” This fact, economic success Those two circumstances, that does not guarantee dissatisfaction with the peace of mind or social governments’ public policies satisfaction, merely confirms and little attachment to the the change experienced in institutions, are present in Chile. As reflected by the

1 Concert of Parties for Democracy, a coalition of centre-left parties

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economist and intellectual who came from that vast, Sebastián Edwards in the widely diversified sector of daily newspaper La Tercera: the middle classes (who, we “Chile is trapped. Trapped recall, start with salaries of by relentless unrest, by a 5000 or 6000 pesos), were “Chile is trapped. deep mistrust of politicians not protesting only because Trapped by relentless and institutions, by a sort they could not buy dollars. unrest, by a deep of persistent melancholy.” They also had other slogans “Politics sucks”, says the man and converting them all mistrust of politicians in the street. “There is an into a pretext concealing and institutions, by institutional crisis”, repeat the their desire to have foreign a sort of persistent women in the supermarkets. currencies at the official “The neoliberal model has price was to disregard them melancholy” failed”, shout the students in entirely. It is the symmetrical Sebastián Edwards their demonstrations. version of those who say that the participants in the And he adds: “Chilean families anti-Kirchner demonstrations are proud of what each of were ‘out for the plan and them has achieved during the choripán2’.” the last quarter of a century: moving into the middle class, In Brazil, the demonstrators the university degree of one in the June protests were not of their daughters, their poor people uprooted from dream holiday, the grant the shanty towns but from awarded to their nephew. the middle class, which was Personal satisfaction and demanding efficiency and social discontent coexist anti-corruption measures in present-day Chile. Many from the State. consider this illogical, but that’s the way it is.” Long gone are the days of the renowned “he steals, Meanwhile in Argentina, in but he acts”, which in the 2001 during the famous “get fifties raised to power figures them all out”, there was such as Adhemar de Barros, a prelude of that “middle mayor and governor of São class rebellion.” It has now Paulo, where people said reappeared in the saucepan- “Adhemar rouba mas faz” bashing protests of 2012 (“Adhemar steals but acts”). and 2013 against Cristina Juan Arias, correspondent in Kirchner’s government. Brazil for the daily Spanish newspaper El País, considers The analyst and historian that “The new middle class is Beatriz Sarlo agreed with now demanding “first world this diagnosis, stressing public services —education, that “The demonstrators, transport, hospitals—”, as

2 a type of sandwich with chorizo [sausage] popular in several Latin American countries.

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well as “politicians with less that “in the rest of Latin corruption and squandering.” America, part of those middle classes does not receive the Just as in Chile, in Brazil subsidies intended for the economic success is poorest strata and want a ironically the source of piece of the cake, yet they the current problems. As are not prepared to wait for explained by Michael Read: that fortunate day in the “The interesting thing about future to receive their share. the recent protests is that Consequently, the question they reflect the success ‘what about my part’ is of the past 15 years, the running rife throughout the socio-economic success region, north to south and “There is a narrow that has created almost full east to west.” but greatly populated employment in Brazil. Real purgatory between salaries have been rising, This is so, undoubtedly, up to this year, and there because the public policies those two states, are far more people with have reached the poor characterised more money. But there is segments of society but by considerable a gulf between the size of not so much the vulnerable the State and the services it middle classes with income vulnerability and a provides. The tax burden in of “between US$4 and US$10 high risk of sinking Brazil is 36% GDP, which is per person a day. They are back into poverty” high for any country of that too well-off to be considered size. However, the level and poor, but too vulnerable quality of the public services to be considered middle are rather poor, in education, class. It is certainly not a but especially in health and small group: it covers 37.6% transport. If we add to this of the population on the the growing awareness that continent... Moving out of there is a lot of public money poverty, —as defined by most and that a large part of that countries and international money is being wasted and organisations—, is not squandered, that explains enough to join the ranks the fury and reveals the of the apparently well-off reforms that are needed.” and economically secure middle class. There is a In short, in each of these narrow but greatly populated countries the different internal purgatory between those dynamics and the coinciding two states, characterised by general circumstances have considerable vulnerability converged, bringing about and a high risk of sinking these outbursts. Looking at back into poverty. As a group, the situation more globally, they are probably crucial for we must point out that the designing the social policies ultimate reason, according to of the continent, the political Carlos Malamud, researcher dynamics and the social at Real Instituto Elcano, is: contract in broad terms.”

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3. CONCLUSIONS that transition stops. However, the region cannot rely on the In the short and medium external environment continuing terms, we could conclude that to be as favourable as in the the social mobilisation of the recent past to achieve more heterogeneous Latin American social and economic benefits. middle classes is here to stay, So a much greater effort will be for two basic reasons: required in designing policies to “In the short and consolidate and make further medium terms, we • Firstly, because as we have progress in the rising mobility, could conclude that the seen, the public policies making it more resistant to of the governments in the potential adverse disruptions. social mobilisation of region have not been capable In the end, the responsibility the heterogeneous Latin of responding to the new will fall on the shoulders of the American middle classes demands raised (better public political leaders and democratic services) by these segments of institutions in the region, which is here to stay” the population. face the challenge of redefining their social contract.” • And secondly, because the region is moving towards a With low economic growth in much less favourable economic of the world (the EU in recession, climate of deceleration, the USA with weak growth and slowdown and even China approximately two points crisis in some cases. This down in its GDP), exports will fall unfavourable, or at least and, consequently, so will the State not so favourable, situation income, reducing the margin of has already been admitted public policies and the possibility by the governments. In the of extending them to the middle emblematic case of Peru, classes. Those middle classes will the minister of economy, grow at a slower pace this decade Luis Miguel Castilla, has and will be even more vulnerable admitted that “Peru has due to the smaller growth rates. strengths, but it must urgently carry out internal These protest movements will tasks in order to cope with a have three more characteristics less favourable climate.” in the near future: they will extend geographically and be As pointed out by the World Bank: clearly discontinuous. “Throughout most of the 2000 decade, the enhanced framework • Not only will the protests of the policies in Latin America continue, but there is a good enabled many countries to take chance they will extend to advantage of a benevolent other countries such as Mexico, external environment to begin an Colombia and Venezuela. impressive transition towards a middle class society. This created “It is a product of economic great expectations which run the and social progress and the risk of turning into frustration if expansion of the middle class

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in countries such as Brazil, governments in decline (such Mexico, Chile and Colombia”, as Sergio Massa in Argentina) or says Michael Shifter, known benchmark opponents president of Inter-American such as Marina Silva in Brazil Dialogue, adding that “The will be able to channel the discontent in Brazil which discontent. In the short has surprisingly reached the term, the possibility of surface reflects a tendency a cheap imitation of the throughout the region.” Italian anti-system Five Star Movement appearing on the • Moreover they will be scene seems unlikely. (actually they already are) “The moderate movements characterised That is becoming perceptible middle class sectors, by cyclical rises and falls: in Argentina, for example, the backbone of the very marked and active at where the middle class and specific, symbolic times emerging middle class vote is protests, have been (Confederations Cup, being channelled through the pushed into the pope’s visit or World Cup) tactical vote to candidates such background as the more followed by times of less as Sergio Massa (governor and activity, when radical groups former minister in the Kirchner radical and violent might take control of the government, Peronist and now groups advance and movement, something which opponent of Cristina Kirchner). take over” is already happening in Brazil. The moderate middle The results of the local elections class sectors, the backbone held on 11 August indicate just of the protests, have been that. A report published by the pushed into the background daily La Nación indicates that as the more radical and “Kirchnerism lost votes in all the violent groups advance and urban centres of the country, take over. As indicated by falling 24% on average compared Moisés Naím: “The protests with the 2011 elections. This will no doubt ease off in figure, essential to understand the these countries. But that severe defeat of the government, doesn’t mean their causes is especially illustrative of the will disappear.” change of direction of the middle class. According to the analysts, • As to whether these movements the bad performance of Kirchner’s will become institutionalised, government in urban centres organising themselves into reflects the impact of inflation, parties or forces that embody insecurity and corruption. The their message and intentions, map includes large towns and at least in the short term it cities in which a defeat of the FPV looks as if the old parties or was taken for granted —Mendoza, coalitions (such as the Chilean Córdoba, Rosario and Santa Fe—, Nueva Mayoría —the successor but also provincial cities where of the Concertación— led by defeat was not expected, such as Michelle Bachelet), politicians Catamarca, La Pampa, San Juan having nothing to do with the and Corrientes.”

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As indicated by the sociologist be numerous demonstrations but Liliana de Riz: “The combined within a very specific context: furies that were not heeded the left-wing protests (led by the exploded in the street and radical left party of Andrés Manuel ended up making themselves López Obrador and the more heard through voting.” “The moderate PRD) against the energy middle class lost confidence reform promoted by the president in the government’s ability to Enrique Peña Nieto, aiming to maintain the current levels of attract private capital to Pemex. spending and well-being, which, “The middle class without long-term policies, In Venezuela the citizen protests lost confidence in the were only sustainable in the against inflation, shortage of government’s ability to official account”, assures the supplies and insecurity (which hit academician Levy Yeyati. the middle and lower middle classes maintain the current especially hard) will inevitably be levels of spending and Similarly, in the presidential mixed in a high polarized political well-being, which, without elections in Chile this year context (Chavism vs anti-Chavism), the vote of discontent will be local elections on 8 December and long-term policies, were channelled mostly towards emergence of a unified, stronger only sustainable in the the former Concertación, now opposition around Henrique official account” Nueva Mayoría, led by Michelle Capriles while the regime faces a Bachelet, while the protest vote difficult transition between the Levy Yeyati less attached to the traditional charismatic leadership of Hugo trends will be minority and Chávez and the much lower profile embodied in two independent of Nicolás Maduro. candidates, Franco Parisi and Marco Enriquez-Ominami, who In Colombia, the May elections, will each receive around 5% of negotiations in Havana with the the votes. FARC guerrillas and the current crisis of the different left-wing The same thing can be expected movements and parties will keep to occur in Brazil, where Dilma the protests in check. At present, Rousseff’s PT and the PSDB those protests are more related headed by Aécio Neves will mark with the problems of different the electoral flux in the 2014 trades (illegal miners, coffee presidential elections. If there are growers and lorry drivers) than any novelties, they would come in with the demands of the new the form of increased support for middle classes. the green candidate Marina Silva, who was the third most voted in In other countries (Ecuador and 2010, or the moderate socialist Bolivia, among others), these Eduardo Campos, hitherto movements are unlikely to be allied with Lula and Rousseff, as structured in the short term. governor of Pernambuco. The charismatic leadership of Rafael Correa and Evo Morales The scenario might be similar and the absence of national in other parts of the region: in union and political opposition Mexico there will almost certainly forces prevent this. In Ecuador,

15 THE PROTESTS ARE HERE TO STAY SOCIAL CHANGE AND MOBILISATION OF CITIZENS IN LATIN AMERICA

just the government’s decision protests demonstrate those to drill oil in the Yasuni ITT labour pains of a more modern, area might be used to induce heterogeneous, complex, young people, ecologists and autonomous society with critical “A new Latin America indigenous peoples to challenge capacity. The challenge of the is being born in social the extraction plans of Rafael State and political system will aspects and the protests Correa’s government. be to respond to and channel those demands by continuing to demonstrate those labour A new Latin America is being extend the reach and improve pains of a more modern, born in social aspects and the the quality of public services. heterogeneous, complex, autonomous society with critical capacity”

16 Leading Communication Consultancy in Spain, Portugal and Latin America

LLORENTE & CUENCA is the leading communication consultancy in Spain and Latin America. It has fourteen partners and over 300 professional employees who provide strategic consultancy services for companies in all sectors of activity, with deals aimed at the Spanish and Portuguese-speaking population.

At present the firm has offices in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, China, Ecuador, Spain, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Portugal and the Dominican Republic. We also render our services through associate companies in the United States, Chile, Bolivia, Portugal, Uruguay and Venezuela.

Through its international development, in 2010 and 2011 LLORENTE & CUENCA was recognised as one of the fifty most important communication compa- nies in the world, as reflected in the annual ranking published in The Holmes Report. In 2013, it is ranked 51st, one position ahead of 2012.

Organisation

CORPORATE MANAGEMENT LATIN AMERICA Panama

José Antonio Llorente Alejandro Romero Javier Rosado Founding Partner and Chairman Partner and CEO, Latin America Partner and Managing Director [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Enrique González José Luis Di Girolamo Avda. Samuel Lewis. Edificio Omega, piso 6 Partner and CFO Partner and CFO, Latin America Tel: +507 206 5200 [email protected] [email protected] Quito Jorge Cachinero Antonio Lois Corporate Director for Reputation and Innovation Regional HR Director Catherine Buelvas [email protected] [email protected] Managing Director [email protected] IBERIA Bogota Av. 12 de Octubre 1830 y Cordero. Arturo Pinedo María Esteve Edificio World Trade Center, Torre B, piso 11 Partner and Managing Director Managing Director Distrito Metropolitano de Quito (Ecuador) [email protected] [email protected] Tel: +593 2 2565820

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