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SPECIAL REPORT

How will the Latin American electoral year play out in 2016?

Madrid, February 2016

BARCELONA BOGOTA BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBON MADRID MEXICO CITY MIAMI PANAMA CITY QUITO RIO J SAO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

1. INTRODUCTION

In 2016, Latin America will experience a much less intense electoral 1. INTRODUCTION year than in 2014 or 2015, but the year will be very significant and 2. IS LATIN AMERICA highly politically charged. There were seven presidential elections EXPERIENCING A CHANGE IN THE POLITICAL CYCLE? in 2014, only two in 2015, and three will take place in 2016 (Peru, the Dominican Republic, and Nicaragua). There will also be municipal 3. 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS elections in Brazil and Chile, gubernatorial elections in Venezuela 4. CONCLUSIONS and in 12 Mexican states, as well as a referendum to decide whether Evo Morales may be eligible for reelection in Bolivia.

If political-electoral changes marked the elections of Argentina and Guatemala in 2015, the ruling parties are expected to continue in 2016, at least in the elections of the Dominican Republic, where the current president, Danilo Medina, is the favorite to win the presidential election. It seems that the status quo will also continue in Nicaragua, where the Interoceanic Canal, economic stability, Chinese investments, and the Sandinista political system led by Daniel Ortega have positioned the existing head of state (who has been President since 2007) as the strong favorite to remain in power.

Peru is the only country where change is expected because the ruling party does not have the option of a second round, and the favorites to win the election are the opposition Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. In the case of the Andean nation, the reality is that change actually means continuity, because since the fall of Alberto Fujimori in 2000, none of the leaders have been reelected. And it seems that this lack of continuism will once again take place in 2016, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Ruling Parties in the Government of Peru

President Party Possible Peru Alejandro Toledo (2001-2006) (Perú Posible) Peruvian Aprista Party Alan García (2006-2011) (APRA, Partido Aprista Peruano) Nationalist Party Ollanta Humala (2011-2016) (Partido Nacionalista) Keiko Fujimori –Fuerza Popular, Fujimorist– Pedro Pablo Kuczynski –Alliance for Favorite candidates for the Great Change (PPK)– the second round César Acuña –Alliance for Progress (APP, Alianza Para el Progreso)– Alan García (APRA)

Source: Compiled by author

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The pages that follow will Varela). On the other hand, first analyze the political Brazil ratified the continuity “2015 was a year situation (heterogeneous of the Workers’ Party (PT) and and in transition) of the Dilma Rousseff, Uruguay did of changes” Latin American region in the same with Tabaré Vázquez’s general, and then study all Broad Front (Frente Amplio), the electoral processes in and so did El Salvador with the three countries that will the Farabundo Martí National hold presidential elections Liberation Front (FMLN, in 2016 (Peru, the Dominican Frente Farabundo Martí para Republic, and Nicaragua) la Liberación Nacional), led as well as the nation with a by Salvador Sánchez Cerén, as referendum (Bolivia) that has well as Colombia by ensuring a clear plebiscite focus. the continuity of Juan Manuel Santos. 2. IS LATIN AMERICA EXPERIENCING A 2015 was a year of “changes” CHANGE IN THE because it brought the POLITICAL CYCLE? opposition victories of Mauricio Macri in Argentina, The idea that has started to Jimmy Morales in Guatemala, spread after the 2014 elections, and the Democratic Unity and especially after the 2015 Roundtable (Mesa de Unidad elections, is that there is a Democrática) in Venezuela’s change in Latin America’s cycle legislative elections. However, and the region is experiencing in 2016, continuity (Dominican a new shift, this time towards Republic and Nicaragua) will the right after the one to the prevail over change (Peru). left that took place before the last two five-year terms. In reality, as opposed to a However, this theory is not uniform shift, what Latin a true reflection of reality. America is experiencing is the Throughout Latin America, combination of two elements. 2015 represented an island One has a homogeneous of change in the middle of nature and a regional scope, in the ocean of continuity that which the effects of a common defined 2014 and will remain background affect nearly all in place in 2016 to a certain the countries (economic issues degree. and social unrest). The other element is more heterogeneous In 2014, presidential elections because it includes the marked were held in seven countries: differences and the internal Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, El political-electoral dynamics Salvador, Uruguay, Panama, that are taking place in each and Costa Rica. The opposition nation. was only able to win in Costa Rica (with Luis Guillermo Solís) On a global (regional) scale, it and Panama (with Juan Carlos can be seen how the world of

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politics is being affected by the RULING PARTIES ARE LOSING economic downturn as well GROUND “There were also signs as by growing social unrest towards the party system and The ruling parties struggled indicating that the inefficient State systems that to win in 2014 and they were most recent results do not channel or offer an defeated in 2015. First, several in 2014 and 2015 appropriate response to citizen of the ruling party victories in are proof that the demands in terms of providing 2014 (especially in El Salvador, quality public services as well Colombia, and Brazil, as well political cycle that as guaranteeing transparency as in Uruguay to a certain began at the start in the fight against corruption. degree) were very close and of the last decade in doubt until the final day of This is a common reality in voting. In 2015, this dynamic is entering the final all countries, but when the was much stronger because stretch or a new era” analysis focuses on the specific the ruling parties have been circumstances of each one, defeated in four of the five the dynamics are in fact very elections that took place heterogeneous in nations with (the presidential elections in a predominance of continuity Guatemala and Argentina, as well as in countries that and the legislative elections are shifting towards political in El Salvador and Venezuela). change. The 2014 Latin Only the Institutional American elections apparently Revolutionary Party (PRI, showed signs of continuity, Partido Revolucionario especially in South America Institucional) was able to win where the ruling parties won Mexico’s legislative elections. in five of the seven elections and two presidents were This increased the reelected. There were also signs competitiveness of the indicating that the most recent elections and the difficulty results in 2014 and 2015 are that the ruling parties faced proof that the political cycle to win began in 2014. In that began at the start of the El Salvador, for example, last decade is entering the final Salvador Sánchez Cerén won stretch or a new era. the presidential election by a difference of only 6,000 These signs, which appeared votes. The candidate for the in 2014 and continued in Farabundo Martí National 2015, are proof that the Liberation Front (FMLN, ruling parties are running Frente Farabundo Martí out of steam, accentuated para la Liberación Nacional) by a social and generational received 50.11 % of votes, while transformation, and so far the opposition Nationalist it has not been possible to Republican Alliance (ARENA, provide a response in the Alianza Republicana midst of a changing economic Nacionalista), led by Norman context: Quijano, obtained 49.89 %, for a difference of only 0.22 points.

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In Colombia in 2014, Juan true that it is not easy for Manuel Santos did not receive the opposition to defeat the the most votes in the first ruling party, and efforts this round, when he was surpassed year have failed in El Salvador, by Óscar Iván Zuluaga, a Colombia, Bolivia, Brazil, and supporter of Uribe. Santos won probably also in Uruguay. the election by only five points Voters seem to be choosing after strong vote mobilization a change in continuity as “Ruling parties are efforts, especially in the opposed to change, which can starting to run out Atlantic and Pacific Coasts. be understood as alternation. Ruling parties are being of steam, especially In Brazil, Dilma Rousseff had reelected, but voters are because they do not to fight hard in the first and sending the message that connect so well with second rounds, with polls that they are dissatisfied with the were sometimes extremely current situation.” new generations” adverse, and her final victory was the closest since the PT This was the case in 2014, and won in 2002. That year, Lula the dynamic has been much da Silva beat José Serra by 22 more apparent in 2015 due points, and in 2006 he defeated to the fact that Kirchnerism Geraldo Alckmin by 21 points. has lost the presidency in In 2010, Dilma Rousseff beat Argentina and Chavism has Serra by more than 12 points. lost legislative control. In both countries, the opposition has There were exceptions, such been able to bring together as Bolivia, where Evo Morales the scattered votes against the edged out his opponent, ruling party to end 12 years of Samuel Doria, by 35 points; and the Kirchner administration Costa Rica, where the ruling and 15 years of Chavism party’s candidate, Johnny absolute majorities in the Araya, dropped out in the National Assembly. second round; as well as the Uruguayan election. However, GENERATIONAL CHANGE AND by 2014, most of the ruling SOCIAL CHANGE parties were starting to show signs of weakness and their Second, as pointed out by opponents were closer than Manuel Alcántara, professor at ever to victory. As pointed out the University of Salamanca, by Daniel Zovatto, the regional ruling parties are starting to director for Latin America and run out of steam, especially the Caribbean at International because they do not connect IDEA, “It is increasingly so well with new generations evident that ruling parties that have not experienced any are finding it harder to win authorities other than Lulism elections comfortably. This in Brazil and Kirchnerism in has happened in El Salvador Argentina since 2003, Chavism and Colombia, as well as in in Venezuela since 1999, Brazil. However, it is also Correism since 2007, and Evo

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Morales since 2006. In addition, media emergente que votan por these governments did not el cambio” (Young members of the fully channel the requirements emerging middle class who vote of these sectors. According for change) reflected this fact. to Alcántara, “In normal Alexandre Roig, a sociologist, “Ruling parties circumstances, political cycles researcher, and professor struggle to channel last between 12 and 15 years. at San Martín, one of the the expectations of Political cycles are biological or universities with the strongest the heterogeneous biopolitical, and they are linked growth during the 12 years of to when the new generations Kirchnerism, believes that “most middle classes that reach the age of legal majority voters under the age of 30” have are emerging” that allows them to vote.” not experienced Argentina’s neo-liberal government from Ruling parties have weaker 1989 to 2001, consisting of high connections with the new unemployment and crisis, generation of voters, and it and this “opens the door for a is also becoming apparent right-wing government such that they struggle to channel as that of Macri,” who does not the expectations of the adopt that label and is defined heterogeneous middle classes as “developmentalist,” neither that are emerging. These conservative nor liberal. sectors have appeared thanks to the economic upturn of the In addition, the strong movement last decade as well as to the against Otto Pérez Molina in public policies that have been Guatemala was led by the urban implemented in the midst of middle classes in Guatemala economic prosperity. However, City that supported an “outsider” these middle classes have their along the lines of Jimmy Morales, own agenda (better public just like the middle classes services, such as education, that backed the growth of the transportation, and security), Democratic Unity Roundtable in and ruling parties were unable Venezuela’s legislative election. to properly respond when the region was at its peak. THE END OF THE TAILWIND Everything seems to indicate that this is no longer the case now Third, since 2013, ruling parties that the tailwind has ceased. have survived without the tailwind of the economic boom This can explain many of the that began in 2003 with the votes for Mauricio Macri in “Golden Decade,” a period based Argentina, Jimmy Morales in on a model that consisted of Guatemala, and the anti-Chavism exporting raw materials at very opposition in Venezuela. Urban high prices. votes (young, middle class) have clearly opted to support “The economic upturn that these alternatives. An article South American countries published by El País newspaper experienced in the last decade titled “Los jóvenes de la clase (that is currently winding

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down), the increased levels of points out that “in an article consumption and employment, titled Mérito o suerte (Merit strong State interventions, and or Luck), Campello and Zucco active social policies with a identified the determining clear client-based focus in many factors for votes in Latin cases (that brought millions of America and reached a people out of poverty) are some conclusion: voters reward or of the main factors that explain punish their presidents for the status quo trend of ruling causes that are unrelated to parties,” explains Daniel Zovatto. them. The study reveals that it is possible to predict the This explains the four straight reelection of a president or the terms of the Workers’ Party corresponding party without in Brazil since 2002, the three turning to domestic factors. left-wing Broad Front (Frente It is only necessary to take Amplio) governments that have into consideration the price followed each other in Uruguay, of natural resources (in other the 12 years of Kirchnerism in words, the value of exports) “Another symptom Argentina, the three elections and U.S. interest rates (in other of this change in that Evo Morales has won in words, the value of credit and the cycle is the Bolivia, Correa’s victories in debt). In academic jargon, ‘It’s Ecuador, the 17 uninterrupted the economy, stupid!’” rising unpopularity years of Chavism in Venezuela, trend that currently Daniel Ortega’s decade of Therefore, the change in the affects many power in Nicaragua, and the economic cycle that Latin Latin American dominance of the Dominican America is experiencing Liberation Party (PLD, Partido de plunges the region into an era presidents” la Liberación Dominicana) in the that is much more unstable Dominican Republic since 2004. and volatile in all areas, not just in economic terms. This model and the prosperity that accompanied it have Another symptom of this reached their end with the change in the cycle is the slowdown of the Chinese rising unpopularity trend that economy and rising interest currently affects many Latin rates in the U.S. An economy American presidents. Instances that is slowing down, or is such as Dilma Rousseff, whose even immersed in crisis (as in popularity has reached single the case of Venezuela, Brazil, digits (9 %), Michelle Bachelet at and Argentina), is already nearly 25 %, and Tabaré Vázquez hindering governments that (this Uruguayan president are losing margins for taking ended his first term with a action and increasing or merely popularity level of more than maintaining existing social 70 %, but his approval ratings spending and investments in these past nine months have human and physical capital. plummeted from 78 % to 36 Andrés Malamud, a professor %) are good examples of this at the University of Lisbon, situation.

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3. 2016 PRESIDENTIAL PERUVIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ELECTION (APRIL)

In this context of social unrest The Andean nation will and the end of the tailwind, inaugurate the 2016 presidential three presidential elections will election period in Latin America take place in Latin America in on Sunday, April 10, to elect 2016, and they will be a good the president of the Republic, instrument for measuring vice presidents, and members and verifying some of the of Congress. If a second round statements that have been is required, it will take place made to date regarding the during the 30-day period political situation in the region. following the announcement of the official counts, which tends to take place between the end of Figure 2. Electoral outlook in Latin America for 2016 May and the first half of June.

The big question that is up Country Presidential elections in the air for these elections 1st round (April) is who will accompany Keiko Peru 2nd round (May/June) Fujimori in the second round. 1st round (May 15) The Fujimorist leader is at Dominican Republic the head of polls with more 2nd round (June 26) than 30 % of voting intention. Nicaragua November 6 Therefore, the battle is currently focused on who will Source: Compiled by author be in second place. It could be the former Prime Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, who is Figure 3. Voting intention for Peru’s presidential election second in terms of supporters, but César Acuña has been gaining ground in recent months. The former president Alan García (1985-1990 and 2006-2011) is far behind, as shown in Figure 3.

With this data, Augusto Álvarez Rodrich, an analyst at the La República newspaper, concludes that "it is almost guaranteed that Keiko Fujimori will move on to the second round, although it is uncertain who else will compete in that decisive race. This is where the GFK poll Source: Perú 21 provides major revelations

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that can be summarized as for much of the population follows: as Alejandro Toledo (3 as people still remembered %) continues to lose ground, the authoritarianism and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (9 %), corruption of the Alberto César Acuña (7 %), and Alan Fujimori era. “The candidate’s García (6 %) are almost tied in big mistake in 2011 was the the fight for second place. The fact that she did not separate rivalry is so close that anything herself from her father, and could happen during the when she tried to do this nearly five months until the between the first and second first round.” rounds, it was too late. Her efforts did not seem firm and The next few months will be voters were not convinced. decisive for Fujimorism. They This time, she is not waiting will require Keiko Fujimori until January or February, “This situation has to increase exposure and she when the campaign is more allowed Keiko Fujimori will become the target for intense. Instead, she has to roll out a strategy for criticism from anti-Fujimorists, already started to distance and certain internal tensions herself,” explains the analyst 2015/2016 that attempts may arise between the old Luis Benavente. to gain mainstream Fujimorism guard and the new center votes” generations that surround This situation has allowed Keiko Fujimori. By the hand Keiko Fujimori to roll out a of its leader, Fujimorism aims strategy for 2015/2016 that to return to power and break attempts to gain mainstream away from its traditional center votes, without losing classification as a far-right the support she naturally party. To do so, it has set out obtains from the traditional to conquer the mainstream right wing. Keiko already has center, without abandoning its a strong backing, and for years popular (and populist) roots or polls have positioned her as its traditional voters in order the most valued leader. In to win the 2016 presidential one of the latest polls, GFK election. has noted that the leader of the Popular Force is at the Keiko is aware that since her head of voting intention for father’s fall in 2000, Fujimorism the 2016 presidential election, has held on to the support of with 34 %. This means that extremely loyal voters who hard vote that longs for the represent about 30 % of the old times of Fujimorism and population. This has been a firm hand, will not abandon her minimum as well as her her. In parallel, she must maximum. In 2011, it allowed connect with another type of her to move on to the second voter who will allow her to round, but it was not enough reach 50 % and win the first to beat Ollanta Humala round while dodging an anti- because Fujimorism continued Fujimorist front in the voting to have negative correlations process.

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This context has marked Aside from this Keiko the change in her political Fujimori favoritism, Peru discourse and the closer has maintained a series of relationships with certain electoral trends throughout mainstream center political the years, and they could sectors. This change in strategy reappear in the 2016 election. has been implemented through Specifically, there are two. “Peru has always a number of actions. First, a been a scene that speech at Harvard, where she First, since 2001, the party that was a guest in October and was defeated in the previous favors surprises and in which she was very critical election has always won. In the appearance of of her father’s government. 2001, Alejandro Toledo beat emerging political Second, there has been a Alan García in the second figures” purge within Fujimorism and round, and five years later, some of the members of the García beat Ollanta Humala in 1990s regime are no longer the 2006 election. Humala then candidates as representatives. defeated Keiko Fujimori in the And finally, she has not next election, and she is now hesitated to support popular the favorite for 2016. demands that are conceptually linked to the left wing, such as On occasion, an “outsider” defending the idea of having candidate has been able to the state-owned Petroperú establish a strong presence at operate Block 192. the ballot boxes.

In summary, as pointed out by Peru has always been a scene the political scientist Steven that favors surprises and Levitsky, “Keiko Fujimori the appearance of emerging has started to move towards political figures. First, because the mainstream center. She this is already a historical knows that she lost in 2011 tradition. As noted a few because Humala won over the years ago by the political mainstream center and she analyst Fernando Tuesta, “For did not. As a result, Keiko will more than three decades, probably continue to moderate Peruvian elections have her position. Her repositioning always brought surprises. and new alliances will spur It has become a tradition to a great deal of debate, as expect them. This country occurred with Humala in 2011. is a cradle and developer Will it work? Nobody knows. of outsiders.” The Andean There are risks to moderation nation restored democracy because it generates internal in 1980 by establishing a conflicts (even with her party system that was based father) and it could lead to the on APRA, which had new departure of certain long-time leadership in the 1980s (Alan Fujimorists. We currently do García), and on the Popular not know how it will affect her Action (AP) party led by electoral base.” Fernando Belaunde Terry.

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The two groups governed The fall of the Fujimori regime throughout the 1980s: AP in 2000 made it possible to with Belaunde between 1980 reinstate the democratic party and 1985, and APRA with system. However, in the first Alan García between 1985 and elections, which took place in “César Acuña seems 1990. The failure of the two 2001, a new outsider appeared to be the emerging parties explains, in part, the by the name of Alejandro outsider and surprise crisis of the party system that Toledo. He had led the anti- Peru continues to experience Fujimori mobilizations between for the upcoming today and that resulted in 1999 and 2000, and although 2016 election” the appearance of individuals he was not linked to the such as Alberto Fujimori in the traditional parties, he became 1990s and Ollanta Humala in president by the hand of a 2011. recently created party known as Possible Peru (Perú Posible). Because the AP and APRA lost a great deal of their prestige In 2006, the new outsider had due to their inability to lead different features: Ollanta the country, the playing Humala was an anti-system field opened up to other leader who won the first round experiences and in 1990, the of the election by denouncing two parties battled face-to- the economic model and the face against two outsiders. political class. One of them, Mario Vargas Llosa, who was supported As the noted by the political by traditional center-right scientist Martín Tanaka, parties (AP and PPC), later Humala channeled the votes explained his experience as of protest and discontent: “The follows: “I always say that it anti-system discourse and the was an amazing experience. I image of authority conveyed was a candidate during a very by the retired captain Ollanta difficult time in Peru. I am not Humala stirred up strong a politician.” Alberto Fujimori electoral support, and the appeared on the scene as the geographic distribution of this writer’s opponent and led a support highlighted some of recently-created party, Cambio the nation’s social cleavages. 90, with a motto that was well The outsider, Humala, obtained accepted by popular sectors: the most votes in the southern “Honor, technology, and work.” Andes regions, in the most In the end, the unknown impoverished and abandoned Fujimori defeated the APRA areas, and in cities and towns candidate to reach the second where minority ethnic groups round, where he then beat were present. García won in the prestigious writer by Lima and in modern cities that attracting the votes of right- were integrated in the most wing, left-wing, and APRA dynamic economic circuits, rivals. located along the coast.”

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César Acuña seems to be the César Acuña. He is the leader of emerging outsider and surprise Alliance for Progress (Alianza for the upcoming 2016 election. para el Progreso), and he has moved up from sixth place In the midst of a frozen (according to polls in early 2015) scenario, in which Keiko is the to third place after surpassing favorite (but stuck at 30-35 Alan García. Figures 4 and 5. %), followed by Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (who has not been Acuña’s political ascent began able to get off the ground), an in the last decade, but on a individual has appeared who local scale. may alter this electoral map: He first built a business Figure 4. March 2016 Presidential Poll for the 2016 elections in Peru empire that has allowed him to take the leap into politics. He founded Cesar Vallejo University, which provides him with resources and a national structure that goes beyond a local level. He then delved into national politics. In 2006, César Acuña beat APRA in the municipality of Trujillo for the first time by defeating Moisés Arias Quezada in the election. César Acuña then became President of the Regional Government of La Libertad in the October 2014 election. Source: Encuestasperú.com He defeated José Murgia Zannier, the former Minister of Figure 5. Presidential poll for the 2016 elections in Peru Transport and Communication for Alan García, who was the mayor of Trujillo for more than 15 years. He has been working on winning the presidential election since 2015.

Acuña’s main disadvantage is that his background is somewhat tainted. He is currently facing two prison sentences (six years and three years) from the Trujillo district attorney. One is for alleged embezzlement crimes (misappropriation of public Source: Foros Perú funds) and the other is for vote

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inducement. “I don’t know if the Liberal Action Party (PAL, Toledo and Acuña, who have Acción Liberal). In addition, on between 7 % and 11 % of votes September 7, 2015, the PLD and according to the polls, can the Dominican Revolutionary restructure the center. For now, Party (PRD, Partido “Danilo Medina, the second position is held by Revolucionario Dominicano), hopes to be reelected Toledo, who has a human face which are the two major and and he is the favorite thanks to the minimal rejection historically opposing parties, he stirs up and because he is signed an electoral alliance. to achieve this less questionable on a personal Miguel Vargas, the president thanks to his high level. However, the electoral of the PRD, agreed to support popularity levels” campaign is long, bad, and Medina as part of this shared maleficent. Acuña will have to government of national unity increase his exposure, absorb as well as the programmatical the serious accusations that are agreements reached by both starting to be made, and answer entities. in-depth questions about the economy, salaries, corruption, Polls confirm that Danilo and security. For example, it Medina is the favorite will be interesting for him over his top rivals. At the to explain how the quality end of 2015, polls by CIES of his education model will INTERNATIONAL showed differ from the models of the that if the election was to take universities he owns,” states the place at that time, President analyst Juan de la Puente. Danilo Medina would receive 45 % of votes, compared DOMINICAN REPUBLIC to 33 % obtained by Luis PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (MAY) Abinader, the candidate for the Modern Revolutionary The Dominican Republic will Party (Partido Revolucionario Figure 6. Voting intention for hold a presidential election on Moderno). In turn, Pelegrín Danilo Medina May 15, 2016. Castillo, the candidate for the National Progressive Force The current president, Danilo (Fuerza Nacional Progresista), Medina, hopes to be reelected and Guillermo Moreno, of and he is the favorite to the Country Alliance Party achieve this thanks to his high (Alianza País), would receive popularity levels and because about 7 % of votes. This is he has built an extensive only an example of the strong coalition that supports him: advantage that Medina Medina has been proclaimed holds, and seven polls have as a presidential candidate for proclaimed him as the clear his own party, the PLD, as well favorite. These seven polls, of as for the Dominican Workers' which five are international, Party (PTD, Partido de los predict a landslide victory for Trabajadores Dominicanos), Medina, with an advantage the Popular Christian Party of more than 30 % over Luis Source: Diario Hoy (PPC, Popular Cristiano), and Abinader.

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There is no doubt that Medina Polls show that Medina’s is the favorite, and although strongest opponent is the voting intention has fallen presidential candidate for the since September, at the start of Modern Revolutionary Party the pre-campaign his numbers (PRM, Partido Revolucionario continue to be very solid and Moderno), Luis Abinader, who they have been unaffected by the is also backed by the Broad corruption scandals that have Front and by Dominicans for touched his administration. There Change (DxC, Dominicanos por are three reasons that explain this el Cambio). Abinader’s great situation: achievements are creating a new alternative –even if it is a • The political stability that the party that revolves exclusively nation has been experiencing around him– and surpassing since the PLD’s dominance traditional forces –especially “If Medina wins, was consolidated in 2004, led the PRD– as the main rival and he will govern the by Leonel Fernández. opposition of the PLD. Other country eight straight aspects in Abinader’s favor • Medina’s strong leadership are some of the weaknesses years (2012-2018) that is backed by a structure, that beset the ruling party’s after entering into mostly client-based, in the candidacy: office in 2012” hands of his closest circle and the PLD. First, the division between Danilists and Leonelists. • The positive economic situation that has made Leonel Fernández hoped to the Dominican Republic a become president once again leader in Latin America and in 2016 since the constitution the Caribbean in terms of would not allow Medina to economic growth for 2015, be reelected. However, the with a 6.6 % rise in the GDP current president obtained after a growth of 7.3 % in 2014. enough support to reform the Magna Carta, allowing his If Medina wins, he will govern reelection and defeating Leonel the country eight straight years for the candidacy within the (2012-2018) after entering into party. This has caused strong office in 2012. Medina’s victory divisions inside the PLD. There will also confirm the end of are rumors that Leonelists Leonel Fernández’s authority, are supporting Medina’s rival because although they are in the candidates, and even the same party, they compete for its Fundación Global Democracia leadership. Fernández was also y Desarrollo (FUNGLODE) –a the nation's president from 1996 Leonelist entity– has stated to 2012, except for the 2000-2004 that the presidential candidate period. In the 2015 battle within for the Modern Revolutionary the party, Medina edged out Party (PRM), Luis Abinader, Leonel Fernández, who had hoped will be the most influential to become president once again. politician in 2016, beating

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out President Danilo Medina current president, Daniel Ortega, and former President Leonel seems to be the ruling party's Fernández. According to polls strongest contender, with 54 % by the Dominican Political of support according to a CID Observatory (OPD, Observatorio Gallup poll. Unlike his previous “Corruption, Político Dominicano), an entity era as president (Ortega was insecurity, and affiliated with FUNGLODE, at the head of the government rising prices are Abinader is at the top with from 1979 to 1985 as a member 90.91 %, followed by Medina of the Board of National three factors with a with 81.82 %, Guillermo Moreno Reconstruction after the fall of strong social impact (the presidential candidate for Anastasio Somoza’s dictatorship, on the middle and the Country Alliance Party) and then as president from 1985 with 45.45 %, and Fernandez in to 1990, when he was defeated by popular sectors” fourth place with 36 % (in the Violeta de Chamorro in the 1990 group of leaders who will not be presidential election), in this presidential candidates). new period (2007-2016) he has been able to establish stability as Second, Danilo Medina’s well as overall social consensus candidacy could be affected by regarding his role. A number of growing citizen insecurity, the reasons explain this situation: corruption scandals that have affected his administration, • Economic prosperity: and the progressive rise in Economic matters have been prices for basic products in managed in an orthodox the shopping carts of families, manner (unlike in the 1980s), such as chicken. Corruption, and economic prosperity insecurity, and rising prices has accompanied his are three factors with a strong administration during Latin social impact on the middle and America’s “Golden Decade.” popular sectors. This has allowed Ortega’s government to boast of NICARAGUAN PRESIDENTIAL an achievement –reducing ELECTION (NOVEMBER) the nation’s poverty level from 45 % to 29 %–. This has Latin America will end its year been possible thanks to the of presidential elections on positive economic situation November 6 in Nicaragua. This that the nation and the Central American nation will region have experienced. elect a president, vice president, This favorable situation, 90 national representatives, prudent macroeconomic and 20 representatives for the policies, the support of Central American Parliament. Venezuela, the arrival of Chinese investments in the Although the Sandinista form of the Interoceanic National Liberation Front Canal, and an effective (FSLN, Frente Sandinista de client-based party system Liberación Nacional) has not managed by the firm hand named him as its candidate, the of Daniel Ortega, his wife,

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and the government's • Institutional control: second-in-command Another reason that (Rosario Murillo) are the explains Ortega’s reasons behind his political consolidation lies in his dominance. If reelected, he control over institutions. will be president until 2021 The Sandinista leader and become the leader who was elected in 2006 for has spent the most years a five-year term, which in power since 1979, when he renewed in 2011 by “The Sandinista leader Anastasio Somoza –the last eliminating a constitutional was elected in 2006 member of the Somoza rule that blocked for a five-year term, dynasty that ruled the consecutive reelections. nation for 45 years– was The latest constitutional which he renewed in overthrown. modification that took 2011 by eliminating a place in 2014 has established constitutional rule that According to the 2011 indefinite reelections and analysis of Arturo J. Cruz also makes it easier to blocked consecutive Sequeira, the former remain in power because reelections” Ambassador of Nicaragua the candidate with the most in the United States, the votes wins the election, as characteristics of Ortega’s opposed to the candidate government in 2011 allow it with 35 % of votes, thereby to be defined as “responsible also eliminating the second populism”: “It is responsible electoral round. populism in the sense that Ortega has used Venezuela’s Since he left office in 1990, resources to address the and taking advantage of the nation’s immediate needs. weaknesses of governments At the same time, he has like those of Arnoldo managed the economy very Alemán or Enrique Bolaños, responsibly using his formal Ortega strengthened his budget within the IMF control over Nicaraguan program.” He concluded by institutions to reach highlighting that Ortega’s the current maximum government has achieved levels. Salvador Martí, an “a balance between meeting academic at the University the population’s immediate of Salamanca, states that needs without losing sight "the FSLN has a number of the macroeconomic of advantages. The Front future. He brought together has a strong following, the the IMF and Chávez. We support of media outlets have the best of both (especially radio and TV), worlds. Nicaragua receives the approval of business Chávez’s dollars, with a sectors, enough money from very Chavist rhetoric, but ALBA for the campaign, a the economic policies are single and unchallenged in line with Washington’s candidate (Daniel Ortega), consensus.” control of the Supreme

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Court of Justice and of this was the first part of the the Supreme Electoral machinery that guaranteed Council, and the support of the fraudulent reelection), organized social sectors that declared the leader of the have benefited from focused Sandinista Front as the social policies.” winner with 62.4 % of the votes.” As a result, Daniel Ortega’s power is astounding. Not only does he control He holds the executive the Armed Forces and power and the Legislative the Army, but he also Assembly of Nicaragua holds judicial power through the Sandinista and has established National Liberation Front important alliances with (FSLN), which has the business sectors that “Daniel Ortega’s power absolute majority. The value his orthodoxy and is astounding” FSLN obtained 60.93 % the stability that the of votes for national country has attained. representatives and Three names stand out 60.75 % for departmental in Ortega’s alliances: representatives. the Mexican business Sandinistas have also owner Ángel González, taken control of judicial a communications powers. First, in 2000 by magnate; José Adán reaching an agreement Aguerri, Chairman of the for distributing positions Higher Council of Private with Arnoldo Alemán’s Enterprise (Cosep, Consejo Liberal Party, and in recent Superior de la Empresa years, without the need for Privada); and the Chinese agreements, resulting in business owner Wang Jing, the polemical failure of the a multimillionaire who is Supreme Court in 2010 that behind the construction allowed Daniel Ortega to of the Interoceanic Canal run for reelection, despite megaproject in Nicaragua. the fact that consecutive The opponent Carlos reelections were banned Langrand defines Daniel by the Constitution. Ortega’s presidency in the Sandinists are also able following manner: “Ortega to influence the Supreme is not the tripod: Cosep, Electoral Council (CSE), as Government, and unions. pointed out by the analyst My theory is that Ortega Carlos Salinas Maldonardo is like an octopus seated in the Confidencial on several arms: the army, newspaper: “The de facto police, a business sector judges of the CSE, who that does not question remain in their posts institutional nature as thanks to the decree 3-2010 the transparency of issued by Ortega (in fact, macroeconomic policies.”

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The recent transfer of • Anti-Sandinista divisions: the channel 2 television The rise of Sandinistas and network to the Mexican their leader, Daniel Ortega, business owner Ángel has taken place in parallel González is the latest to a divided, embattled, and example of how President fragmented opposition. Daniel Ortega and Running separately in 2006 “The other big ally is González have built a led the anti-Sandinista the Chinese business duopoly in the country. sectors to lose the elections The Nicaraguan journalist because Ortega obtained owner, Wang Jing, Carlos Fernando 38 % of votes, followed whose Interoceanic Chamorro has drawn by the dissident liberal Canal project has attention to this fact: Montealegre (28 %), and the “Democratic institutions pro-Alemán liberal José Rizo finished consolidating have been demolished (27 %). If they had joined the power of the in Nicaragua,” including forces, they would have Nicaraguan president” those that belong to the defeated the Sandinistas. State and to civil society, The 2011 reelection took with the creation of a place because of anti- duopoly under Ortega’s Sandinista divisions and presidential family, “which also because the opposition owns four channels,” and project did not seem credible: the business owner and Ortega obtained 62 % of the leader’s partner, the votes, compared to 32 % for Mexican Ángel González, Fabio Gadea (PLI) and 5 % for “who owns another five.” Arnoldo Alemán. The chairman of the Higher Council of Private After what took place in Enterprise (Cosep), José Venezuela on December Adán Aguerri, has become 6, 2015, when the united another chief supporter opposition defeated of the government. On Chavism in the 2015 a number of occasions, legislative election, it seems the business owner has that anti-Sandinistas have highlighted the “economic taken note and learned achievements” attained their lesson. “Hope is thanks to the alliance the last thing to lose, between the Nicaraguan and we must learn from Government and the Venezuela’s example, from private sector. The other Argentina, from the united big ally is the Chinese opposition, without an business owner, Wang ego or repressions,” stated Jing, whose Interoceanic the representative for the Canal project has finished main opposition party, consolidating the power Alberto Lacayo. This path, of the Nicaraguan which is not easy, has president.: already started. Nicaragua’s

18 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

Sandinista dissidence joined referendum will take place that the emerging National has become a plebiscite about Coalition for Democracy the role and administration of (Coalición Nacional por Evo Morales and his government. la Democracia) led by the The Bolivian president hopes opposition Independent that the February referendum Liberal Party (PLI, Partido will ratify the constitutional “More than Liberal Independiente). reform that will allow him to 35 opposition marches The Sandinista Renewal run for the fourth consecutive Movement (MRS, time in the election scheduled have been carried out Movimiento Renovador for 2019. Morales won the to demand free and Sandinista, center-left) led 2005 election and he was then transparent elections” by Ana Vigil has joined the reelected in 2009 and in 2014. alliance with the PLI led by The Constitution that was the representative Eduardo written in 2009 during his term Montealegre. Liberalism also of office does not allow another strives for reunification, and reelection. This led to the this is the path that Eduardo referendum in which Bolivians Montealegre, President of the must decide whether they accept Independent Liberal Party or refuse to change a paragraph (PLI), and Noel Vidaurre, in the Constitution to allow presidential candidate for Morales and his vice president, the Liberal Constitutionalist Álvaro García Linera, to run Party (PLC, Partido Liberal again in 2019. Constitucionalista), have created through discussions Regardless of the result, the to establish a united front. event will affect the political In addition, the example agenda beyond 2016 as well as of Guatemala, with its the 2019 presidential election, major citizen mobilizations, since it will not be the same with has influenced Nicaragua or without Evo as a candidate. and strengthened the It will also affect the ruling opposition’s role. More than party, which must search for 35 opposition marches have a new candidate if “No” is the been carried out to demand referendum decision, as well as “free and transparent the opposition, since it will not elections,” and these protests be the same to face the candidate take place every Wednesday that has won all the elections in front of the Supreme since 2005 or not. Even if “Yes” is Electoral Council. the referendum decision, it is one thing for there to be a landslide BOLIVIAN REFERENDUM victory of 65/70 % and another (FEBRUARY) for the results to be closer because this will indicate that Unlike Peru, the Dominican the government is losing ground. Republic or Nicaragua, Bolivia For the sociologist María Teresa will not hold a presidential Zegada, the February referendum election in 2016, but a has “contaminated” the electoral

19 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

scenario because it has a surveyed are undecided. This plebiscite nature in terms of how extremely polarized situation the government of Evo Morales supports the idea that the and Álvaro García operates: “The referendum has become a referendum has prematurely plebiscite in favor of or against contaminated the electoral Morales and his administration. scenario because although the “The government vote is about a Constitutional The government has decided has decided to reform, in reality the vote is for to increase the degree of Evo Morales’ reelection.” She polarization and convey a increase the degree states that proof of this lies in message that it hopes will reach of polarization and the fact that the campaign being the popular sectors better. convey a message that carried out by the ruling party The polarization can be noted and the opposition “is focused on in messages that attempt to it hopes will reach the Evo Morales’ administration, the divide the playing field into two popular sectors better” offers that are being made, and competing areas and to identify the positive aspects of his efforts. a common enemy: the United As a result, it is impossible to States. “In politics there is only separate the two concepts.” the left-wing or the right-wing; in politics we are either with After a decade in power, this is the people or with the empire,” the first time that polls are no the leader has stated. However, longer in favor of the current what stands out more than president. Support for the anything is the discourse of fear, reform represents 40 % of votes, the fear of change. At a housing while 54 % of voters are against handover event, Vice President the constitutional reform and Álvaro García also conveyed this in favor of a new presidential type of apocalyptic message on nominee, and 6 % of those a number of occasions, making reference to the possibility of the right-wing being victorious: Figure 7. Agreement and disagreement to change Bolivia’s Constitution “The day that the right-wing returns to power, God save Bolivia. Protect what you have. They will even try to privatize the air we breathe. They will try to take away your homes and your public assistance vouchers. They will want to give our gas, oil, and lithium to foreigners. They will try to freeze and reduce local government coffers. The right-wing, the neo-liberals, those who sell our homeland. They only think of themselves. They do not think about the poor. They only think about a Source: Eju Tv few families”.

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The opposition has never had indicate that the multi-million a chance like this to defeat Evo propaganda campaign carried Morales at the polls. It believes out by the robust institutional that the Achilles heel in Evo state media system is entering Morales’s strategy has been an era of declining results. The found, and it hopes that the ability to seduce, especially in February 21 vote will become the case of voters with mid to a trap that will seal the end of high-levels of education and the current president’s rule. the middle layers, is falling. The opposition also hopes to So much information and convey its message through packaged propaganda has criticisms of the government a saturating and muddled “For now, Evo Morales and the use of popular symbols. effect. On the other hand, The criticism attacks some of the political and moral harm is lagging behind the government’s weaknesses, caused by the Fondioc scandal in the polls” especially corruption. More has not hit rock bottom yet. It than 200 individuals have overwhelmed the government’s already been accused and ability to control. Today, in his some have been arrested for desire to mitigate the damage, the Indigenous Fund (Fondo he approved punitive measures Indígena) alleged corruption towards political scenarios that scandal. Bolivia’s Attorney are higher in the hierarchy but General is investigating the politically “dispensable.” Despite use of $6.8 million for 49 Fondo the high political cost in terms Indígena projects that, until of his indigenous vanguard 2015, funded development of rural origin, the aim is to efforts in remote areas, but protect the Morales-García some of the resources had Linera team, who are usually been transferred to personal immune to all types of earthly accounts. Those arrested and mundane threats, from this include Julia Ramos, the former contaminating tide. Minister of Justice and Rural Development, as well as Remy For now, Evo Morales is lagging Vera and Melva Hurtado, union behind in the polls. He may be leaders linked to MAS. defeated or he may rise back and obtain the constitutional The analyst Erika Brockmann reform that will allow him to wrote in the Página Siete run for reelection in 2019. The newspaper that the corruption one thing that is certain is and hegemonic style of that he will emerge politically Morales and his party, MAS, weakened from this process, are behind these unfavorable and this will be combined polls regarding the President: with the corruption scandals The slight drop in the support and economic downturn for “Yes” is noteworthy because that are already affecting the the government decided to government. In fact, another “pull out all the stops” for this weakness that affects the initiative. Everything seems to government is the economic

21 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

situation. In one year, the price As a result, in 2005, before of the natural gas that the the State took control of nation exports to Argentina and hydrocarbons, the country Brazil fell between 47.5 % and received $600 million in 34.5 %. Natural gas was the key royalties, but in 2014, this “The 2016 Venezuelan behind the economic boom that amount was more than elections will be the Bolivia experienced. Among $6 billion. There is no doubt most noteworthy other things, it explained that the new economic the stability of Evo Morales’s situation, which can still be because they will be government since 2009, the handled by the government, conditioned by the social improvements that the will complicate Evo Morales’s progress of an economy government has been able future efforts and damage to implement, as well as the his popularity because there that is experiencing nation’s comfortable economic will be fewer resources to a recession” situation. Natural gas is the support his social policies country’s main export product, and the public investments in and Brazil and Argentina are infrastructures. its top markets. Most of the benefits are received by the LOCAL ELECTIONS IN MEXICO, Bolivian product as a result BRAZIL, VENEZUELA AND of the nationalization of CHILE hydrocarbons in 2006, which was done at a time when In addition to the three exports grew and international presidential elections and prices increased. the Bolivian referendum, there will also be local Armando Méndez Morales, elections in four countries: a Bolivian economist, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, and explains that “the May Chile. The 2016 Venezuelan 2006 nationalization of elections will be the most hydrocarbons meant that all oil noteworthy because they companies operating in Bolivia will be conditioned by the must deliver their production progress of an economy that to YPFB, who would handle is experiencing a recession. It the commercialization. It also is expected that the GDP will stated that all hydrocarbon fall by 7 % and inflation will fields that produce more than increase by more than 200 %. 100 million square feet each day They will also be affected by (large) must contribute 32 % of a political situation that is in their revenue, in addition to the the midst of an institutional 50 % prior to nationalization, crisis and a struggle for for a total of 82 %. In summary, power (Chavist president the State would receive 50 % vs. anti-Chavist legislative of oil revenues from small branch). The other elections fields (which represent a will take place within a small portion of the total fairly standard political- production) and 82 % from institutional setting: large fields.”

22 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

Local elections in Mexico In this regard, Pascal Beltrán del Río, an analyst at the Mexico will experience a Excelsior newspaper, points decisive political three-year out that if "the Institutional period (2016-2018) in which Revolutionary Party wins 9 of there will be local elections the 12 state governments that (2016), a pre-campaign that is will hold elections in 2016, the “These years are expected to be very challenging party will make firm progress vital in determining (2017), and a noteworthy towards its attempt to win electoral year (2018). The the 2018 presidential election. the parties and the process for the new president Why? Because recent electoral pre-candidates that will begin towards the end statistics show that when the hope to make their of this year. This means that PRI is in power, its results in as of a few months ago, the federal elections improve on way to the Los Pinos leading parties have started to average by 3 %.” Palace in 2018” implement their strategies for the 2018 presidential election, As a result, the left-wing PRD while keeping in mind the and the center-right PAN importance of what happens in have decided to join forces 2016 and 2017. These years are for some of these elections, vital in determining the parties such as in Zacatecas and and the pre-candidates that Durango, and to remain in hope to make their way to the power in Puebla and Oaxaca, Los Pinos Palace in 2018. in order to defeat the PRI. The 2016 elections will also On June 5, 2016, there will be be very important in order to elections in 12 of Mexico’s 32 assess the implementation states, including important of MORENA (Andrés Manuel regions such as Veracruz, López Obrador’s party) Puebla, and Oaxaca. At play throughout the nation is who will be at the head of and to know whether new each entity, and especially, “Broncos” appear. For AMLO, the strength of each party to these elections are only a face the 2017 pre-campaign test run for his attempt to and the 2018 campaign. The defeat the PRD as the top key to understand what left-wing reference. As far happens in Mexico in 2016 is as independent candidates, to know to what degree the it seems that the strict PRI will be strengthened or legislation of each state will weakened. Peña Nieto’s party obstruct the appearance of governs 10 of the 12 entities new players along the lines where the governor will be of Jaime Rodríguez Calderón elected and he is the favorite in (alias “El Bronco”), the current most, although victory is not governor of Nuevo León guaranteed. He is also facing who won the election as the threat of the an independent candidate PAN-PRD alliances and of the while competing against the “independent” candidates. traditional parties.

23 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016?

The 2016 elections will not Eduardo Cunha, is driving determine the name of the the impeachment initiative party or candidate who will win against the president as she the 2018 presidential election, faces corruption scandals). The but they will provide clues or situation in São Paulo is key establish certain trends that because most of the big cities could be decisive. Ultimately, governed by the PT are located “The corruption the 2016 elections will be a in the Brazilian state with the scandals and Dilma test for the 2018 presidential largest population. Eight states election because this year will have more than 200,000 voters, Rousseff’s weakened be followed by a biennium that including the capital, where the government could will be pre-election, election, mayor is the former Minister of lead the PT (the ruling and post-election. During this Education Fernando Haddad. time, the pre-candidates and The mayors have the option of party) to lose a great the candidates for the 2018 running for reelection in five of deal of power” presidential election will appear. these eight states.

Local elections in Brazil Local elections in Chile

The effects of the political, The municipal elections will economic, and institutional be held in October, and the crisis that Brazil has been two biggest coalitions (the experiencing since 2013 will play Nueva Mayoría center-left a role in the 2016 local elections and the Chile Vamos center- that will be held in October to right) are experiencing similar choose the mayors of all the situations of internal doubt municipalities in Brazil for the and transition. next four years. The corruption scandals and Dilma Rousseff’s The ruling party is immersed weakened government could in strong tensions between lead the PT (the ruling party) its moderate wing (Christian to lose a great deal of power, Democratic Party and sectors especially in the big cities (the of the Socialist Party (PS)) and PT controls 15 of the 83 most its far-left wing (part of the PS, important mayor’s offices the Party for Democracy (PPD), in Brazil, cities with more the Social Democrat Radical than 200,000 voters). Other Party (PRSD, Partido Radical unknown aspects are whether Socialdemócrata), and the the opposition, especially the Communist Party. This means PSDB, will be able to bring that the New Majority will together the anti-PT votes, and compete with at least two lists of whether the local authority city councilmen/councilwomen. that the PMDB has experienced One list will be made up of the to date will be damaged or PS and PDC, and the other will weakened. (The PMDB is consist of the PPD, PRSD, and Dilma Rousseff’s top supporter PC. There will be a third list but it is currently divided, made up of left-wing candidates and one of its factions, led by for the IC and MAS.

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The right wing parties are also just like what happened in redefining their strategies and Brazil and Colombia in 2014, or in messages after the 2014 defeat Argentina in 2015. Governments forced them to leave La Moneda. will have to withstand long The main challenge faced by the periods of difficulty (especially new center-right coalition, Chile in terms of the economy), Vamos, is to win the upcoming strong social pressures (the 2015 “Ruling parties will municipal elections so this mobilizations in Guatemala are find it increasingly may serve as a springboard to a good example of this), and subsequently regain control of tremendous political instability difficult to maintain the government. with weak leaders and occasional their dominance over institutional clashes (legislative long periods of time, 4. CONCLUSIONS opposition vs. president, which is currently happening in Venezuela and this is what took Latin America has entered a and Argentina). place in Argentina and new stage in its history. It has Venezuela in 2015” done so from an economic In this common background, perspective at the end of the each country will have its own “Golden Decade” (2003-2013) and dynamics and characteristics, the start of a new era of weaker so it is not advisable to growth and the risk of recession discuss homogeneous shifts if more aggressive economic to the right, although this reforms are not implemented in trend could primarily be in order to make the region more the short term. The political competitive, productive, and situation will be very innovative, and less dependent heterogeneous and volatile, on exporting raw materials marked by growing social with a low added value. The unrest and an increasingly economies must be diversified complex governability that in terms of export products as will put political institutions well as markets, and investments to the test. If the structural must be made in human capital reforms aimed at improving (education reforms) as well as in competitiveness, productivity, physical capital (infrastructures). and innovation are the pending task for matters related to the This is also the end of an era economy, then strengthening from a political perspective institutional aspects is the because social unrest and pending task in the area of the corresponding economic politics. The aim is to update challenges have a political and adapt the party system translation. Ruling parties will to this new era, and to design find it increasingly difficult States that are more effective to maintain their dominance and efficient, not co-opted by over long periods of time, corruption and patronage, and this is what took place in and capable of channeling and Argentina and Venezuela in addressing the demands of the 2015. Election results will be new middle classes that want much closer and hard-fought, better public services.

25 CORPORATE MANAGEMENT SPAIN AND PORTUGAL MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN José Antonio Llorente Barcelona Buenos Aires Founding Partner and Chairman Mexico City [email protected] María Cura Pablo Abiad Partner and Managing Director Juan Rivera Partner and Managing Director Enrique González [email protected] Partner and Managing Director [email protected] Partner and CFO [email protected] [email protected] Muntaner, 240-242, 1st-1ª Enrique Morad 08021 Barcelona Av. Paseo de la Reforma 412, Piso 14, CEO for Southern Cone Adolfo Corujo Tel. +34 93 217 22 17 Col. Juárez, Del. Cuauhtémoc [email protected] Partner and Chief Talent and CP 06600, México D.F. Innovation Officer Madrid Tel. +52 55 5257 1084 Daniel Valli [email protected] Senior Director of New Business Joan Navarro Panama City Development for the Southern Cone Jorge Cachinero Partner and Vice-president [email protected] Corporate Director of Innovation of Public Affairs Javier Rosado [email protected] [email protected] Partner and Managing Director Av. Corrientes 222, piso 8. C1043AAP [email protected] Tel. +54 11 5556 0700 Amalio Moratalla MANAGEMENT - SPAIN AND Partner and Senior Director Av. Samuel Lewis Rio de Janeiro PORTUGAL [email protected] Edificio Omega - piso 6 Tel. +507 206 5200 Yeray Carretero José María de Urquijo Arturo Pinedo Director Vice-President of Corporate and Partner and Managing Director Santo Domingo [email protected] [email protected] Financial Communications [email protected] Iban Campo Rua da Assembleia, 10 - Sala 1801 Goyo Panadero José Isaías Rodríguez Managing Director RJ - 20011-000 Partner and Managing Director [email protected] Tel. +55 21 3797 6400 [email protected] Vice-President of European Affairs [email protected] Av. Abraham Lincoln 1069 Sao Paulo MANAGEMENT - LATIN Lagasca, 88 - planta 3 Torre Ejecutiva Sonora, planta 7 AMERICA 28001 Madrid Tel. +1 809 6161975 Marco Antonio Sabino Tel. +34 91 563 77 22 Partner and Brazil Chairman Alejandro Romero [email protected] Partner and CEO Latin America Ana Folgueira ANDES’ REGION [email protected] Managing Director of Juan Carlos Gozzer Impossible Tellers Bogota Managing Director Luisa García [email protected] [email protected] Partner and CEO Andes’ Region María Esteve [email protected] Diego de León, 22, 3rd izq Managing Director Rua Oscar Freire, 379, Cj 111, 28006 Madrid [email protected] Cerqueira César SP - 01426-001 José Luis Di Girolamo Tel. +34 91 438 42 95 Tel. +55 11 3060 3390 Partner and CFO Latin America Carrera 14, # 94-44. Torre B – of. 501 [email protected] Lisbon Tel. +57 1 7438000 Madalena Martins Lima Partner HR MANAGEMENT [email protected] Luisa García Daniel Moreno Partner and CEO Andes’ Region Tiago Vidal HR Manager for Spain [email protected] Managing Director and Portugal [email protected] [email protected] Av. Andrés Reyes 420, piso 7 San Isidro. Carlos Ruiz Tel. +51 1 2229491 Marjorie Barrientos Director HR Manager for Andes’ Region [email protected] [email protected] Quito Avenida da Liberdade nth225, 5th Alejandra Rivas Karina Valencia Esq. HR Manager for North America, Managing Director 1250-142 Lisbon [email protected] Central America and Caribbean Tel. + 351 21 923 97 00 [email protected] Avda. 12 de Octubre N24-528 y Cordero – Edificio World Trade Karina Sanches UNITED STATES HR Manager for Center – Torre B - piso 11 Tel. +593 2 2565820 the Southern Cone Miami [email protected] Santiago de Chile Alejandro Romero Partner and CEO Latin America Claudio Ramírez [email protected] Partner and General Manager [email protected] Sergio Cortés 600 Brickell Ave. Suite 2020 Partner. Founder and Chairman Magdalena 140, Oficina 1801. Miami, FL 33131 [email protected] Las Condes. T​el​. +1 786 590 1000 Tel. +56 22 207 32 00 Calle Girona, 52 Bajos 08009 Barcelona Tel. +34 93 348 84 28 Developing Ideas by LLORENTE & CUENCA is a hub for ideas, analysis and trends. It is a product of the changing macroeconomic and social environment we live in, in which communication keeps moving forward at a fast pace.

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