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How Will the Latin American Electoral Year Play out in 2016?

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How Will the Latin American Electoral Year Play out in 2016? : SPECIAL REPORT How will the Latin American electoral year play out in 2016? Madrid, February 2016 BARCELONA BOGOTA BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBON MADRID MEXICO CITY MIAMI PANAMA CITY QUITO RIO J SAO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016? 1. INTRODUCTION In 2016, Latin America will experience a much less intense electoral 1. INTRODUCTION year than in 2014 or 2015, but the year will be very significant and 2. IS LATIN AMERICA highly politically charged. There were seven presidential elections EXPERIENCING A CHANGE IN THE POLITICAL CYCLE? in 2014, only two in 2015, and three will take place in 2016 (Peru, the Dominican Republic, and Nicaragua). There will also be municipal 3. 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS elections in Brazil and Chile, gubernatorial elections in Venezuela 4. CONCLUSIONS and in 12 Mexican states, as well as a referendum to decide whether Evo Morales may be eligible for reelection in Bolivia. If political-electoral changes marked the elections of Argentina and Guatemala in 2015, the ruling parties are expected to continue in 2016, at least in the elections of the Dominican Republic, where the current president, Danilo Medina, is the favorite to win the presidential election. It seems that the status quo will also continue in Nicaragua, where the Interoceanic Canal, economic stability, Chinese investments, and the Sandinista political system led by Daniel Ortega have positioned the existing head of state (who has been President since 2007) as the strong favorite to remain in power. Peru is the only country where change is expected because the ruling party does not have the option of a second round, and the favorites to win the election are the opposition Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. In the case of the Andean nation, the reality is that change actually means continuity, because since the fall of Alberto Fujimori in 2000, none of the leaders have been reelected. And it seems that this lack of continuism will once again take place in 2016, as shown in Figure 1. Figure 1. Ruling Parties in the Government of Peru President Party Possible Peru Alejandro Toledo (2001-2006) (Perú Posible) Peruvian Aprista Party Alan García (2006-2011) (APRA, Partido Aprista Peruano) Nationalist Party Ollanta Humala (2011-2016) (Partido Nacionalista) Keiko Fujimori –Fuerza Popular, Fujimorist– Pedro Pablo Kuczynski –Alliance for Favorite candidates for the Great Change (PPK)– the second round César Acuña –Alliance for Progress (APP, Alianza Para el Progreso)– Alan García (APRA) Source: Compiled by author 2 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016? The pages that follow will Varela). On the other hand, first analyze the political Brazil ratified the continuity “2015 was a year situation (heterogeneous of the Workers’ Party (PT) and and in transition) of the Dilma Rousseff, Uruguay did of changes” Latin American region in the same with Tabaré Vázquez’s general, and then study all Broad Front (Frente Amplio), the electoral processes in and so did El Salvador with the three countries that will the Farabundo Martí National hold presidential elections Liberation Front (FMLN, in 2016 (Peru, the Dominican Frente Farabundo Martí para Republic, and Nicaragua) la Liberación Nacional), led as well as the nation with a by Salvador Sánchez Cerén, as referendum (Bolivia) that has well as Colombia by ensuring a clear plebiscite focus. the continuity of Juan Manuel Santos. 2. IS LATIN AMERICA EXPERIENCING A 2015 was a year of “changes” CHANGE IN THE because it brought the POLITICAL CYCLE? opposition victories of Mauricio Macri in Argentina, The idea that has started to Jimmy Morales in Guatemala, spread after the 2014 elections, and the Democratic Unity and especially after the 2015 Roundtable (Mesa de Unidad elections, is that there is a Democrática) in Venezuela’s change in Latin America’s cycle legislative elections. However, and the region is experiencing in 2016, continuity (Dominican a new shift, this time towards Republic and Nicaragua) will the right after the one to the prevail over change (Peru). left that took place before the last two five-year terms. In reality, as opposed to a However, this theory is not uniform shift, what Latin a true reflection of reality. America is experiencing is the Throughout Latin America, combination of two elements. 2015 represented an island One has a homogeneous of change in the middle of nature and a regional scope, in the ocean of continuity that which the effects of a common defined 2014 and will remain background affect nearly all in place in 2016 to a certain the countries (economic issues degree. and social unrest). The other element is more heterogeneous In 2014, presidential elections because it includes the marked were held in seven countries: differences and the internal Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, El political-electoral dynamics Salvador, Uruguay, Panama, that are taking place in each and Costa Rica. The opposition nation. was only able to win in Costa Rica (with Luis Guillermo Solís) On a global (regional) scale, it and Panama (with Juan Carlos can be seen how the world of 3 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016? politics is being affected by the RULING PARTIES ARE LOSING economic downturn as well GROUND “There were also signs as by growing social unrest towards the party system and The ruling parties struggled indicating that the inefficient State systems that to win in 2014 and they were most recent results do not channel or offer an defeated in 2015. First, several in 2014 and 2015 appropriate response to citizen of the ruling party victories in are proof that the demands in terms of providing 2014 (especially in El Salvador, quality public services as well Colombia, and Brazil, as well political cycle that as guaranteeing transparency as in Uruguay to a certain began at the start in the fight against corruption. degree) were very close and of the last decade in doubt until the final day of This is a common reality in voting. In 2015, this dynamic is entering the final all countries, but when the was much stronger because stretch or a new era” analysis focuses on the specific the ruling parties have been circumstances of each one, defeated in four of the five the dynamics are in fact very elections that took place heterogeneous in nations with (the presidential elections in a predominance of continuity Guatemala and Argentina, as well as in countries that and the legislative elections are shifting towards political in El Salvador and Venezuela). change. The 2014 Latin Only the Institutional American elections apparently Revolutionary Party (PRI, showed signs of continuity, Partido Revolucionario especially in South America Institucional) was able to win where the ruling parties won Mexico’s legislative elections. in five of the seven elections and two presidents were This increased the reelected. There were also signs competitiveness of the indicating that the most recent elections and the difficulty results in 2014 and 2015 are that the ruling parties faced proof that the political cycle to win began in 2014. In that began at the start of the El Salvador, for example, last decade is entering the final Salvador Sánchez Cerén won stretch or a new era. the presidential election by a difference of only 6,000 These signs, which appeared votes. The candidate for the in 2014 and continued in Farabundo Martí National 2015, are proof that the Liberation Front (FMLN, ruling parties are running Frente Farabundo Martí out of steam, accentuated para la Liberación Nacional) by a social and generational received 50.11 % of votes, while transformation, and so far the opposition Nationalist it has not been possible to Republican Alliance (ARENA, provide a response in the Alianza Republicana midst of a changing economic Nacionalista), led by Norman context: Quijano, obtained 49.89 %, for a difference of only 0.22 points. 4 HOW WILL THE LATIN AMERICAN ELECTORAL YEAR PLAY OUT IN 2016? In Colombia in 2014, Juan true that it is not easy for Manuel Santos did not receive the opposition to defeat the the most votes in the first ruling party, and efforts this round, when he was surpassed year have failed in El Salvador, by Óscar Iván Zuluaga, a Colombia, Bolivia, Brazil, and supporter of Uribe. Santos won probably also in Uruguay. the election by only five points Voters seem to be choosing after strong vote mobilization a change in continuity as “Ruling parties are efforts, especially in the opposed to change, which can starting to run out Atlantic and Pacific Coasts. be understood as alternation. Ruling parties are being of steam, especially In Brazil, Dilma Rousseff had reelected, but voters are because they do not to fight hard in the first and sending the message that connect so well with second rounds, with polls that they are dissatisfied with the were sometimes extremely current situation.” new generations” adverse, and her final victory was the closest since the PT This was the case in 2014, and won in 2002. That year, Lula the dynamic has been much da Silva beat José Serra by 22 more apparent in 2015 due points, and in 2006 he defeated to the fact that Kirchnerism Geraldo Alckmin by 21 points. has lost the presidency in In 2010, Dilma Rousseff beat Argentina and Chavism has Serra by more than 12 points. lost legislative control. In both countries, the opposition has There were exceptions, such been able to bring together as Bolivia, where Evo Morales the scattered votes against the edged out his opponent, ruling party to end 12 years of Samuel Doria, by 35 points; and the Kirchner administration Costa Rica, where the ruling and 15 years of Chavism party’s candidate, Johnny absolute majorities in the Araya, dropped out in the National Assembly.
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