A Report on Pulse of the Electorate in Assam

A REPORT ON PULSE OF THE ELECTORATE

IN ASSAM

(Dates of Survey: 18/02/2016 to 28/02/2016)

SAMPLE PROFILE:

Total Sample – 1661

GENDER AGE

Male - 52.5% First Voter - 1.6%

Female –47.5% 18-25 years –12.8%

26-35 years –28.4%

36-45 years –24.0%

46-60 years –22.2%

60 Above - 11.2%

PLACE OCCUPATION

Village - 81.3% Govt. Employee - 5.2%

Small Town - 10.1% Daily Wage Labour - 12.3%

Big Town - 6.2% Private Employee - 7.0%

District HQ - 1.9% Farmer - 15.4%

Assembly HQ – 0.5% Business - 11.6%

Others - 48.5%

EDUCATION CASTE

th Below 10 Class –42.4% General - 26.7%

th Above 10 Class –28.4% OBC - 30.4%

Degree -6.6% SC - 6.5%

Post Graduate - 1.3% ST - 23.3%

Professional - 0.8% Minority – 12.2%

Uneducated - 20.5% Others - 1.0%

METHODOLOGY

 Peoples Pulse, a Hyderabad based research organisation, conducted a mood of the state survey in Assam from February 18th February to 28th February. The survey was conducted in 19 Assembly Constituencies out of 126 constituencies of Assam, which goes for elections in April 2016. Out of these 15 are General seats, three Scheduled Tribe seats and one Scheduled Caste seat. The segments were chosen on the basis of Population proportionate to size. Peoples Pulse, on the basis of the same methodology, identified five polling stations in each Assembly constituency with a sample size of 25-30 from each polling station. A secret ballot was also conducted as part of the survey.  Students from the Gauhati University conducted the field work. The survey was supervised by Assistant Professor, Political Science Department, of Gauhati University, Dr Shubhrajeet Konwer and coordinated by Research Scholar Mr Nurul Hassan. Mr Bathula Suresh Babu, Doctoral Research Scholar, School of Economics Hyderabad Central University, and Co-ordinator, Peoples Pulse analysed the data.  The survey was conducted just before the election schedule was announced. When the respondents were interviewed the BJP-AGP alliance was not firmed up and the contestants of the respective parties were also not identified. The survey might carry an Margin error of +or- 5 percent.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In ensuing Assam Assembly Elections 2016, it appears a close fight between Congress and BJP allies. As per the predictions based on the survey conducted by People Pulse in the last week of February, the Congress would emerge as the single largest party in Assam, throwing up a hung Assembly.

The main challenger to ruling Congress, the BJP, will be the second largest party and will be followed by AIUDF. This was the main finding of the survey conducted by Peoples Pulse.

The Congress would win between 45-50 Assembly constituencies, with the BJP winning 35-40 Assembly seats. The AIUDF would get 15-20 seats. The AGP, the BPF and others would take the rest.

The survey underlines the prevailing trend over the past 10-15 years that the voter views the Lok Sabha elections very differently. In a state Assembly election the voter’s priorities and concerns are different. The survey reflects this in full for the simple reason that; had the voter not made a distinction between state and national elections the BJP would have swept the elections.

The Congress has managed to retain its traditional vote share despite being in power for 15 years. The BJP has increased its vote share at the expense of the AGP. The AIUDF has been unable to increase its appeal beyond its existing areas of support.

The survey and also the secret ballot conducted showed that the Congress would get 40.3 percent of the popular vote and the BJP would get around 37.4 percent. The number of seats that were worked out for each party was based on the vote share. These percentages were well reflected in another question on which party would win in a particular Assembly constituency.

The preference for the next chief minister of Assam is Mr Tarun Gogoi with 39.9 percent of respondents. His main challenger Mr Sarbananda Sonowal got 32.5 percent. The survey asked the respondents on whom they preferred as the next chief minister without giving them any options.

Congress leader who shifted to the BJP, Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma got 8.9 percent preference while AIUDF leader Mr Badruddin Ajmal got 5.4 percent. The two time chief minister and AGP leader Mr Prafulla Kumar Mohanta got 3.8 percent.

The Congress is seeking its fourth successive term. Against this backdrop Mr Gogoi found 33.2 percent of the voters finding his performance good, with another 40 percent nodding an okay. 26.4 percent of the voters found his performance bad. Updating the NRC, prompt payment of salaries, BPL politics, good law and order and overall development have contributed to Mr Gogoi’s dominance in the existing political landscape.

Mr Sonowal, who began as a firebrand youth leader, was referred to as the Jatiya Nayak of Assam. When voters were asked if he still enjoys the same status, 61.6 percent said ‘No’, while 21.5 percent said ‘Yes’.

When respondents were asked if they prefer the BJP forging an alliance with the AGP, 25.7 percent responded positively but as much as 74.3 percent were against it. This was amply reflected by the spate of protests at their respective party offices after the alliance was officially announced.

On the other side when asked if they prefer the Congress having an alliance with the AIUDF, 32.3 percent said yes, while 67.7 percent rejected it.

Respondents were asked which political party is better for the development of the state. The Congress was favoured by 43.6 percent. The BJP got 33.7 percent in its favour.

The Survey suggest that people are vexed with prise rise, unemployment and these issues going to the primary factor that will influence him/her when they seek to exercise the franchisee.

Immigrants’ issue continues be the dominant one in Assam. Peoples Pulse asked if the immigrants’ issue was an important issue or if it was being blown out of proportion. 52 percent said that is an important issue. Less than half of these with 23 percent said that it was blown out of proportion.

In 2014 Lok Sabha elections the BJP promised that not a single immigrant would be allowed to stay in Assam after those elections. This struck a cord with the voters, who backed Mr Narendra Modi in the campaign causing the BJP to win seven of the 14 Parliament seats in the state.

This was further reflected at another response. The question was: is Mr Modi successful in implementing the promises made in 2014. 77.7 percent said “No”, with only 20.4 percent saying “Yes”. The respondents found both the Congress and the BJP equally capable of handling the immigrants’ issue.

Further the land swap deal with Bangladesh, ST status to six communities, removal of subsidised ration for tea garden workers and the black money issues are not working for the BJP as they did in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Further instead of the Rs 1,000 crores promised to the Bodoland Territorial Areas Districts, only Rs 100 cr was earmarked in the recent Union Budget. This promise of Rs 1,000 cr made the BPF forge a tie-up with the BJP. It’s now not known if the less than the promised amount would impact the electorate.

When asked if people from outside Assam can spoil the state’s culture and way of life, 46.3 percent ‘agreed’ and another 23.5 percent ‘somewhat agreed’. On the ULFA’s loss of popular support, 62.8 percent ‘agreed’ and 23 percent ‘somewhat agreed’.

At another level if Bengali speaking Hindus from Bangladesh should be granted refugee status 43.2 percent ‘disagreed’ and 16.9 percent ‘somewhat disagreed’. 21.7 percent ‘agreed’ and 18.2 percent ‘somewhat agreed’. The NDA’s decision to grant these sections Indian citizenship has not found favour in Assam.

In parameters like electricity supply, education system, facilities in government hospitals, law and order and development of Assam, the respondents said there has been improvement. On corruption, roads and flood control, people said that they deteriorated. 70 percent said they benefitted from government schemes. 34.2 percent said that development of Assam is the most important election issue.

Incumbency against the sitting candidates is a feature that is plaguing all political parties. 43.6 percent said they would not re-elect the present sitting MLA. Only 30 percent said they would re-elect the sitting MLA. This was reflected in another response. Respondents were asked what is the most important criterion for them to vote. 36.2 percent said it is the candidate that is the most important. This means that selection of candidates would be of prime importance to all political parties.

Further the BJP lacks an organisational structure. The Congress, on the other hand, enjoys a good organisational strength and an appeal that spreads through all communities and across the three regions of Assam. At another level, BPF faces a severe test from Abodo Suraksha Samiti. The non-tribes are numerically strong and for the first time a non-tribe, Mr Naba Kumar Saraniya won the Lok Sabha seat in 2014. The behaviour of the non-Bodos is not known.

Most of the state elections in recent years have given decisive verdicts. Now Assam is headed for a hung Assembly, which was seen in Jammu & Kashmir last year. With exactly a month to go there are factors that would play a key role to have the last word in the elections. Selection of candidates, the way the campaign is run by political parties and contestants, the possibility to contain the friction at the ground level between the BJP, AGP and BPF or their inability to do so, whether AIUDF can emerge as a spoiler for the Congress or the BJP, whether the Congress can reduce their internal bickering or not are among the major factors to look out for.

FINDINGS

Q1. Are you or your family a beneficiary of any Government scheme?

 Yes - 70.1%  No - 29.6%  Not Responded - 0.3%

Beneficiary of any Government scheme

70.1

29.6

0.3

Yes No Not Responded

Q2.In your opinion, what are the three major problems facing by you & your family?

S. No Problem Percent 1 Price Rise 53.1 2 Unemployment 33.0 3 Flood 13.9

Major Problems facing by Individuals

53.1

13.9

Price Rise Unemployment Flood

Q3. To attain political and social information which particular Newspaper do you read?

1) Asomiya Pratidin - 41.0% 2) Amar Asom - 25.6% 3) The Assam Tribute - 6.2% 4) Niyamiya Barta - 4.9% 5) Jana Sadharan - 5.0% 6) Khabbar - 4.0% 7) Dainik Jhanabhoomi - 3.0% 8) Dainik Yuvasankha - 2.0% 9) Ananda Bazar Patrika - 2.0% 10) Gana Adhikar - 0.7% 11) Sentinel - 1.0% 12) Telegraph - 1.0% 13) The Hindu - 3.1% 14) The Times of India - 0.5%

Q4. Which television channel do you prefer most often to watch “News”?

1) Prag News - 29.4% 2) News Live - 25.1 % 3) Assam Talks - 18.3% 4) DY 365 - 13.6% 5) Pratidin Time - 7.3% 6) Others - 5.4%

5. Will you cast your cast your vote in the ensuing Assam Assembly election, 2016?

 Yes - 98.0%  No - 0.8%  Not Responded - 1.2%

Casting vote in the ensuing Assembly Elections

98.0

1.2 0.8

Yes No Not Responded

Q6. When did you finally make up your mind about whom to vote?

 On the day of voting - 24.6%  A day or two before voting - 18.9%  During the campaign - 27.2%  Before the campaign started - 27.8%  Others - 0.4%  Not Responded - 1.1%

Making up mind for voting to whom

27.8 27.2 24.6

18.9

1.1 0.4

Before the During the On the day A day or Not Others campaign campaign of voting two before Responded started voting

Q7. While voting, what is the most important criteria for you whom to vote?

1) Candidate - 36.2% 2) Party - 32.9% 3) Poll Development - 11.6% 4) Promises - 5.9% 5) Ideology - 4.3% 6) Money - 2.3% 7) State Govt. Performance - 2.1% 8) Local Leaders or Relatives - 1.6% 9) Caste - 1.1% 10) Central Govt. Performance - 0.8% 11) Not Responded - 1.2%

Most important criteria for voting to whom 36.2 32.9

11.6 5.9 4.3 2.3 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.8

Q8. In deciding whom to vote, are you guided by anyone? If so, whose advice do you value the most?

 Own Decision - 66.4%  Family Members - 17.9%  Local Political Leader - 5.6%  Local Leaders or Relatives - 3.0%  Friends - 2.0%  Others - 2.9%  Not Responded - 2.2%

Advice you consider for voting to whom

66.4

17.9 3.0 2.2

5.6 2.9 2.0

Others

Friends

Relatives

Own decision Own

Not Responded Not

Family Members Family Laocal Leaders or or Leaders Laocal

Local Political Leader Political Local

Q9. Now, I will ask about the work done by the Congress Government in Assam during its 15-year rule. Tell me whether the following have improved, deteriorated or remained the same in the last Fifteen years? (Probe further whether “fully” or “Somewhat” improved or deteriorated)

S. No Don’t Works Improved Deteriorated No Change Know A Supply of Electricity 60.3 24.3 12.7 2.6 B Employment 29.5 33.2 25.6 11.7 C Education System 58.1 25.6 11.8 4.5 D Facilities in Govt. Hospitals 50.6 27.2 16.1 6.2 E Facilities in Govt. Schools 55.8 27.3 13.0 3.9 F Conditions of Roads 33.8 39.6 22.3 4.3 G Controlling Flood 17.8 35.9 25.0 21.3 H Law & Order 32.0 25.4 20.7 22.0 I Supply of drinking water 28.9 30.1 29.9 11.2 J Curbing Corruption 19.8 43.5 20.0 16.8 K Development of Assam 38.1 24.1 22.7 15.0

Q10. In the ensuing Assam Assembly Elections, which issue you consider the most important election issue?

1) Development - 34.2% 2) NRC - 20.8% 3) Illegal Migrants - 12.3% 4) Communal Harmony - 9.6% 5) Intolerance - 6.4% 6) Employment - 6.0% 7) Failure of State Govt. - 5.5% 8) Land Deal/ land Boundary - 3.1% 9) Failure of Central Govt. - 2.1%

Election issue you consider while voting 34.2

20.8

12.3 9.6 6.4 6.0 5.5 3.1 2.1

Q11. According to you, who is more responsible for the price rise?

 NDA Government at the Centre - 40.1%  Congress Government in the state - 34.3%  Both - 20.9%  Not Responded - 4.7%

Government responsible for Price rise

40.1 34.3

20.9

4.7

NDA Congress Both Not Responded Government at Government in the Centre the State

Q12. Which party is better for the development of your state Assam?

1) Congress - 43.6% 2) BJP - 33.7% 3) AIUDF - 8.7% 4) AGP - 7.3% 5) Others - 5.9% 6) Not Responded - 0.8%

Party which is better for the development of Assam

43.6

33.7

8.7 7.3 5.9 0.8

Congress BJP AIUDF AGP Others Not Responded

Q13. Rate the Performance of Chief Minister Sri Tarun Gogoi?

 Good - 33.2%  Bad - 26.4%  Okay - 40.0%  Not Responded - 0.4%

Performance of Chief Minister Sri Tarun Gogoi

33.2 40.0 26.4

0.4

Good Bad Okay Not Responded

 Gender-wise: Not Gender Good Bad Okay Responded

Male 32.7% 25.7% 41.4% 0.2%

Female 33.8% 27.2% 38.5% 0.4%

 Age-wise: Not Age Good Bad Okay Responded

First time Voter 34.6% 19.2% 46.2% 0.0%

18-25 years 33.0% 24.5% 41.5% 0.9%

26-35 years 36.9% 25.5% 37.6% 0.0%

36-45 years 31.9% 25.9% 41.7% 0.5%

46-60 years 31.0% 26.9% 41.8% 0.3%

Above 60 31.2% 32.3% 36.6% 0.0%

 Occupation-wise: Not Occupation Good Bad Okay Responded

Govt. Employee 34.5% 20.7% 44.8% 0.0%

Daily Wage Labour 36.1% 19.0% 44.9% 0.0%

Private Employee 28.4% 31.0% 40.5% 0.0%

Farmer 29.4% 31.0% 39.2% 0.4%

Business 32.1% 28.0% 39.9% 0.0%

Others 34.5% 26.5% 38.5% 0.5%

 Education-wise: Not Education Good Bad Okay Responded

Below 10th Class 33.4% 25.0% 41.3% 0.3%

Above 10th Class 29.2% 30.3% 40.3% 0.2%

Degree 30.3% 26.6% 43.1% 0.0%

Post Graduate 28.6% 33.3% 38.1% 0.0%

Professional 21.4% 28.6% 50.0% 0.0%

Uneducated 40.2% 23.5% 35.8% 0.6%

 Caste-wise: Not Caste Good Bad Okay Responded

General 41.1% 23.5% 34.5% 0.9%

OBC 30.2% 32.9% 36.7% 0.2%

SC 21.3% 24.1% 54.6% 0.0%

ST 24.0% 26.6% 49.4% 0.0%

Minority 47.0% 18.8% 34.2% 0.0%

Others 37.5% 12.5% 50.0% 0.0%

Q14. Do you think, the present Congress Government led by Mr. Tarun Gogoi should be given another chance?

 Yes - 46.9%  No - 52.3%  Not Responded - 0.8%

Another chance for present Congress Govt. led by Mr. Tarun Gogoi

52.3 46.9

0.8

Yes No Not Responded

 Gender-wise: Not Gender Yes No Responded

Male 45.9% 53.0% 1.1%

Female 48.0% 51.5% 0.5%

 Age-wise: Not Age Yes No Responded

First time Voter 50.0% 50.0% 0.0%

18-25 years 47.3% 51.9% 0.8%

26-35 years 49.3% 49.5% 1.2%

36-45 years 46.7% 53.0% 0.3%

46-60 years 44.6% 53.3% 2.2%

Above 60 43.2% 56.5% 1.3%

 Occupation-wise: Not Occupation Yes No Responded

Govt. Employee 43.7% 55.2% 1.1%

Daily Wage Labour 55.2% 43.4% 1.4%

Private Employee 37.5% 60.3% 2.2%

Farmer 43.8% 55.7% 0.5%

Business 43.9% 55.4% 1.7%

Others 48.1% 51.2% 0.7%

 Education-wise: Not Education Yes No Responded

Below 10th Class 46.8% 52.4% 0.8%

Above 10th Class 43.2% 56.6% 1.2%

Degree 37.9% 61.5% 0.7%

Post Graduate 33.3% 66.7% 0.0%

Professional 35.7% 64.3% 0.0%

Uneducated 57.5% 41.6% 0.8%

 Caste-wise: Not Caste Yes No Responded

General 54.5% 43.8% 1.7%

OBC 43.1% 56.3% 0.6%

SC 25.2% 74.1% 0.7%

ST 33.6% 64.6% 1.8%

Minority 70.8% 25.2% 3.9%

Others 43.8% 56.2% 0.0%

Q15. According to you, which party is likely to win from your Assembly segment in the ensuing Assembly elections?

1) Congress - 38.3% 2) BJP - 35.8% 3) AIDUF - 12.9% 4) AGP - 4.2% 5) BPF - 2.5% 6) ASDC - 1.0% 7) Others - 5.1% 8) Not Responded - 0.2%

Party likely to win in the coming Assembly elections

38.3 35.8

12.9

5.1 4.2 2.5 1.0

Congress BJP AIDUF Others AGP BPF ASDC

Q16. Rate the Performance of your MLA?

 Good - 28.6%  Bad - 33.2%  Okay - 37.9%  Not Responded - 0.3%

Performance of MLAs (Overall)

37.9 33.2 28.6

0.3

Good Bad Okay Not Responded

Q17. Will you re-elect the present sitting MLA?

 Yes - 30.4%  No - 43.6%  Don’t Know - 25.4%  Not Responded - 0.5%

Re-electing the present sitting MLA

43.6

30.4 25.4

0.6

Yes No Don't Know Not Responded

Q18. Now I will ask you a question on the foreigners’ issue. Some people think it is still an important issue. Others say it has been blown out of proportion and is not important issue now. What is your opinion?

 Important issue - 52.0%  Issue blown out of proportion - 23.2%  Don’t Know - 24.4%  Not Responded - 0.4%

Perception on Foreigners issue

52.0

24.4 23.2

0.4

Important Issue Don't Know Issue blown out Not Responded of Proportion

Q19. According to you, which political party is best suited to handle the foreigners’ issue?

1) Congress - 38.0% 2) BJP - 37.2% 3) AGP - 4.7% 4) AIDUF - 2.6% 5) BPF - 4.8% 6) ASDC - 11.9% 7) Not Responded - 0.8%

Party better to handle Foreigners issue 38.0 37.2

11.9 4.8 4.7

2.6 0.8

BJP

BPF

AGP

ASDC

AIDUF

Congress Not RespondedNot

Q20. Now I will read out few statements on the performance of the Mr. Tarun Gogoi Got. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one of them?

S. Somewhat Somewhat Works Agree Disagree No Agree Disagree Condition of Tea garden A 41.5 14.4 16.8 27.2 workers has deteriorated Influx of Bangladesh B 30.0 29.9 15.5 24.5 migrants has decreased Congress Govt. has not C succeeded in solving the 33.1 28.5 21.3 17.1 insurgency problem Harassment of Muslims has D increased on the pretext of 19.8 30.6 19.8 29.8 detection of foreigners Atrocities by armed forces E 18.3 22.0 16.4 43.3 have increased

Q21. Now I will read out few statements. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one of them?

S. Somewhat Somewhat Works Agree Disagree No Agree Disagree People from outside Assam can A spoil the Culture and way of life of 46.3 23.5 10.1 20.1 the Assamese Popular support base ULFA or other B insurgents groups have been losing 62.8 23.0 8.5 5.7 bay by day An independent homeland for the C Bodo ethnic group should be carved 10.6 11.5 14.4 63.4 out of Assam Bengali speaking Hindus who D migrated from Bangladesh should 21.7 18.2 16.9 43.2 be granted refugee status Compared to national parties, E regional/local parties can provide 32.0 19.0 17.6 31.4 better government in states

Q22. Who would you prefer as next Chief Minister of Assam?

1) Tarun Gogoi - 39.9% 2) Sarbananda Sonowal - 32.5% 3) Badruddin Ajmal - 5.4% 4) Himanta Biswa Sarma - 8.9% 5) Prafulla Mahanta - 3.8% 6) Others - 9.2% 7) Not Responded - 0.3%

Preference for next Chief Minister of Assam

39.9

32.5

9.2 8.9 5.4 3.8 0.3

Tarun Gogoi Sarbananda Others Himanta Badruddin Prafulla Not Sonowal Biswa Sarma Ajmal Mahanta Responded

Q23. Would you prefer a pre-election alliance between AGP and BJP in the ensuing Assembly elections?

 Yes - 25.7%  No - 74.3%

Preference on alliance between AGP & BJP

74.3

25.7

Yes No

Q24. Would you prefer a pre-election alliance between CONGRESS and AIUDF in the ensuing Assembly elections?

 Yes - 32.3%  No - 67.7%

Preference of alliance between CONGRESS & AIDUF

67.7

32.3

Yes No

Q25. Sarbananda Sonowal was regarded as the Jatiya Nayak of Assam. Is he regarded similarly in the present context?

 Yes - 21.5%  No - 61.6%  Not Responded - 16.9%

Sarbananda Sonowal as Jatiya Nayak of Assam

61.6

21.5 16.9

No Yes Not Responded

Q26. Have the promises which Narendra Modi made for Assam state in 2014 been fulfilled?

 Yes - 20.4%  No - 77.7%  Not Responded - 1.9%

Perception on Prime Minister successful enough fulfilling the promises 77.7

20.4 1.9

No Yes Not Responded

Q27. Which political party do you consider as communal party among these?

1) BJP - 43.8% 2) AIDUF - 26.0% 3) Congress - 11.1% 4) BPF - 5.8% 5) AGP - 3.1% 6) Others - 9.8% 7) Not Responded - 0.4%

Parties considered as Communal parties

43.8

26.0

11.1 9.8 5.8 3.1 0.4

BJP AIDUF Congress ASDC BPF AGP Not Responded

Q28. If elections held today, which party would you vote for? Please take this dummy ballot and cast your vote in ballot box. (Please provide the secret ballot and ensure him or her not disclose anything in any circumstances)

1) Congress - 40.3% 2) BJP - 37.4% 3) AIUDF - 11.9% 4) AGP - 4.8% 5) BPF - 1.9% 6) CPI - 0.5% 7) ASDC - 0.1% 8) Others - 2.8% 9) Not Voted - 0.3%

Party Preference in Assam State

40.3 37.4

11.9

4.8 2.8 1.9 0.5

 Gender-wise: Gender AIUDF AGP BJP CONGRESS BPF CPI ASDC Others

Male 10.6% 4.5% 39.7% 39.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 3.0%

Female 13.3% 5.9% 35.2% 41.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5%

 Age-wise: Age AIUDF AGP BJP CONGRESS BPF CPI ASDC Others

First time Voter 17.7% 3.8% 34.6% 43.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

18-25 years 15.0% 4.3% 32.2% 43.8% 2.4% 0.5% 0.0% 1.9%

26-35 years 12.9% 3.4% 35.9% 41.8% 3.6% 0.4% 0.0% 1.9%

36-45 years 11.8% 6.8% 36.4% 39.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 3.1%

46-60 years 11.3% 4.6% 42.5% 38.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 2.7%

Above 60 7.2% 8.2% 41.3% 36.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 5.4%

 Occupation-wise: Occupation AIUDF AGP BJP CONGRESS BPF CPI ASDC Others

Govt. Employee 6.1% 9.2% 28.7% 43.3% 3.4% 1.1% 0.0% 8.0%

Daily Wage Labour 11.3% 2.4% 35.6% 46.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.9%

Private Employee 12.8% 8.6% 42.2% 32.9% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9%

Farmer 10.6% 5.2% 38.9% 37.1% 1.6% 2.0% 0.0% 4.6%

Business 9.7% 2.6% 45.6% 38.5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%

Others 13.5% 5.5% 36.1% 40.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 2.2%

 Education-wise: Education AIUDF AGP BJP CONGRESS BPF CPI ASDC Others

Below 10th Class 10.9% 5.7% 40.9% 38.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 2.0%

Above 10th Class 11.2% 5.3% 40.1% 38.1% 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 2.3%

Degree 5.9% 8.3% 45.0% 37.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 1.8%

Post Graduate 9.8% 0.0% 52.4% 28.3% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 4.8%

Professional 5.0% 7.1% 28.6% 30.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.6%

Uneducated 17.4% 2.9% 24.5% 49.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 4.1%

 Caste-wise: Caste AIUDF AGP BJP CONGRESS BPF CPI ASDC Others

General 9.5% 7.2% 32.6% 46.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2.3%

OBC 9.0% 7.0% 46.4% 34.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.6%

SC 7.8% 4.6% 62.0% 22.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.9%

ST 7.6% 2.8% 43.9% 32.5% 5.4% 1.0% 0.3% 6.5%

Minority 35.0% 0.5% 1.0% 63.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%

Others 11.2% 6.2% 43.8% 38.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED BASED ON THE PROBABILITY PROPORTIONATE TO SIZE (PPS) METHOD IN SELECTED GENERAL CATEGORY ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCIES Methodology:

 Based on the objectivity, Assembly Constituencies in Assam state are segregated into General Category and Reserved category in order to have proportionate hand on the both categories. So there are 102 General Category Assembly Constituencies (ACs) in the state and among them 15 ACs were identified based on the PPS method.

 Totally, 2959 Polling Stations are there in all the selected 15 General Category Assembly Constituencies.

 Among them, 75 (@ 5 per AC) Polling Stations are chosen for study through the method of Probability Proportionate to Size (PPS)

 The survey will have two components – a secret ballot poll and another is based on the structured questionnaire. The sample will be collected through proposed structured questionnaire by personal interview method and parallel sample through secret voting by ballot will be executed. Respondents will be identified through random sampling in all the four directions of the Polling Stations.

 Different shades of the ballots will be deployed for male and female voters will be executed in the Assembly Constituency.

 Thorough Training/Orientation with mock interviews among themselves for the research enumerators is planned before initiation of the study.

 Selected General Category Assembly Constituencies on the basis of Probability Proportionate To Size (PPS) Method (General Assembly Constituencies) S. No District AC. No AC Name Polling Stations

1 Sivasagar 103 Amguri 150

2 Golaghat 96 Khumtai 158

3 Udalguri 70 Mazbat 165

4 Sivasagar 108 Sibsagar 177

5 Karimaganj 5 Badarpur 174

6 Goalpara 38 Goalpara West 178

7 Tinsukia 124 Margherita 191

8 Karimaganj 4 Karimganj South 201

9 Bongaigaon 32 Bongaigoan 222

10 Morigaon 80 Morigaon 216

11 Sonitpur 71 Dhekiajuli 233

12 Barpeta 43 Barpeta 213

13 Nagaon 83 Dhing 210

14 Barpeta 40 Sorbhog 231

15 Kamrup Metro 53 Gauhati East 240

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR AMGURI ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (SIVASAGAR DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

16 Hatighuli L.P. School 597 577 1174

43 Janji Silpa M.E. School(E) 323 325 648

73 Dikshu High School.(M) 369 335 704

104 Borbam Masdur Janajati L.P.School 261 306 567

135 Borsila Bagan L.P. School(E) 388 371 759

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR KHUMTAI ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (GOLAGHAT DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

30 3 NO. HAUTALI L.P. SCHOOL 188 168 356

67 Khonikor MV School (R) 287 263 550

98 Sankardev High School (R/S) 432 357 789

125 Moliagaon L.P. School 433 438 871

149 Sialekhati Sr. Basic School 354 353 707

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR MAJBAT ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (UDALGURI DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

9 Naoherua L.P. School (Right) 502 487 989

46 Chamuapara L.P. School (Right) 369 319 688

57 Pauripota L.P. School (Right) 428 370 798

100 Garogaon L.P. School 246 244 490

148 Rani Pukhuri L.P. School (Right) 478 419 897

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR SIBSAGAR ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (SIVASAGAR DISTRICT)

Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

37 Reginol Training Institute ONGC Sivasagar 399 407 806

41 Polytechnical HighSchool (w) 516 458 974

79 Bogidol M.E School(W) 376 347 723

98 943. No Jathipatia L.P School 598 525 1123

126 411. No Betbari Girls School (E) 312 302 614

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR BADARPUR ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (KARIMAGANJ DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

47 BADARPUR Girls M.E.Madrassa 410 379 789

Badarpurghat Kalairbond Sr. Basic 56 School(R.N.1) 341 326 667

131 MUGROPUR M.E.School (Left) 277 253 530

145 574 NO. DEBIGORH L.P. School 558 462 1020

151 199 NO. MOUJKORNI L.P. School 457 416 873

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR GOALPARA WEST ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (GOALPARA DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

53 Nidanpur L.P. School (L/W) 435 398 833

68 Hatisila MV School L.W 211 229 440

115 Palash bari L.P. School 552 514 1066

157 Dwarapara Takrapara L.P. School 468 463 931

173 Mogho Balasari JB School (L/W) 384 332 716

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR MARGHERITA ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (TINSUKIA DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

70 Lalpahar L.P School 495 469 964

108 Makumpather L.P School Left 385 356 741

111 Dehing T.E L.P School (R) 419 427 846

144 Ramkrishna Bidyapith M.E School (L) 338 292 630

185 Mullang L.P School 668 537 1205

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR KARIMGANJ SOUTH ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (KARIMGANJ DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

54 422 NO. MAJIDALA L.P.School 501 456 957

64 6O1 NO. MAIZDHI L.P.School (South) 381 338 719

139 366 NO. ATANAGAR L.P.School (Left) 300 277 577

1O63 NO. KAZI NAJRUL ISLAM L.P. 148 School 566 507 1073

179 353 NO. DHALIBEEL L.P.School (North) 427 430 857

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR BONGAIGAON ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (BONGAIGAON DISTRICT)

Polling Third Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Gender Voters

1 423 No. Tulsijhora L.P. School (North ) 458 397 855

30 North Bongaigaon H E School ( Left) 315 298 613

266 No. Dholagaon Majpara L.P. 521 457 978 122 School

142 New Bongaigaon M.E. School (North) 250 233 483

218 Chiponsila M.E. School (West Side) 362 362 1 725

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR MORIGAON ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (MORIGAON DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

43 Morikanaklata L.P. School (South) 559 584 1143

70 Chatanguri Adarsha M.E. School (M) 311 285 596

106 Thakuriabori L.P. School (South) 381 332 713

129 Borbila L.P.School (R) 436 431 867

136 Khandapukhuri M.E. Madrassa (L) 521 463 984

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR DEKIAJULI ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (SONITPUR DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

18 SOPAI TEA ESTATE CLUB HOUSE (East) 246 214 460

29 PANBARI Bagan MAZDOR CLUB 435 439 874

98 Forest RANGE OFFICE (West) 505 506 1011

147 MISSAMARI M.E. School (SOUTH) 394 369 763

187 SWAHID KHAHULI DEVI L.P. School 331 324 655

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR BARPETA ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (BARPETA DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

23 453 No. Belguri L.P. School (R/W) 441 396 837

60 372 No. Moiramara Girls L.P.School 490 458 948

116 Dhanbandha High School(R/W) 307 287 594

Barpeta Vidyapith Higher Secondary 127 School RW 364 373 737

191 Dhakuwa High Madrassa 589 553 1142

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR DHING ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (NAGAON DISTRICT)

Polling Third Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Gender Voters

38 Namdumdumia L.P.School (West) 523 502 1025

48 Gerekani Muktab School (East) 424 380 804

86 2 No. Simaluati L.P. School (East) 635 565 1 1201

188 Barthal Doloigaon H.S. School (North) 331 281 612

Borbori Parthamik Vidyalaya 209 (Middle) 466 433 899

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR SORBHOG ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (BARPETA DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

30 Uttar Burikhamar L.P.School 316 287 603

115 Khoirabari G.P. Office (L/W) 606 536 1142

Dr. Kandarpa Kr Das Memorial Girls High 156 School RW 460 410 870

158 No. Dakshin Ganakgari L. P. School 216 (R/W) 360 374 734

223 Dakshin Bherbheri L. P. School 515 476 991

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR GAUHATI EAST ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (KAMRUP METRO DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

12 Narakasur High School (E/W) 438 445 883

O/O The Director Emp. & Cra. Trai. Centre

64 (M/W) 386 362 748

Panchayati Thakurbari Bibah bhawan

82 (L/W) 267 197 464

84 L.O.G. Hindi School (L/W) 618 384 1002

170 Assam Engineering Institute (L/W) 587 565 1152

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED BASED ON THE PROBABILITY PROPORTIONATE TO SIZE (PPS) METHOD IN SELECTED RESERVED SCHEDULED TRIBES (ST) ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCIES Methodology:

 Based on the objectivity, Assembly Constituencies in Assam state are segregated into General Category and Reserved category in order to have proportionate hand on the both categories. So there are 16 reserved Scheduled Tribe (ST) Assembly Constituencies (ACs) in the state and among them 3 ACs were identified based on the PPS method.

 Totally, 772 Polling Stations are there in all the selected 16 ST Assembly Constituencies.

 Among them, 15 (@ 5 per AC) Polling Stations are chosen for study through the method of Probability Proportionate to Size (PPS)

 Different shades of the ballots will be deployed for male and female voters will be executed in the Assembly Constituency.

 Thorough Training/Orientation with mock interviews among themselves for the research enumerators is planned before initiation of the study.

 Selected Reserved (ST) Assembly Constituencies on the Basis of Probability Proportionate To Size (PPS) Method (ST Assembly Constituencies) S. District AC. No AC Name Polling Stations No

1 Dima Hasao 16 Haflong(ST) 203

2 Karbi Anglong 20 Baithalangso(ST) 246

3 Dhemaji 114 Jonai(ST) 323

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR HAFLONG (ST) ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (DIMA HASAO DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

54 Prasadimdik L.P.School. 362 350 712

109 Laisong L.P.School. 240 291 531

148 Ngullam-I L.P.School 333 300 633

179 P. SONGKAI L.P.SCHOOL 95 93 188

182 Boro Arkap L.P. School 410 402 812

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR BAITHALANGSO (ST) ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (KARBI ANGLONG DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

90 Durikiling L.P. School 355 363 718

92 MaineTeron L.P. School. 126 137 263

122 Rongkuroi L.P. School (R/W) 290 304 594

150 Kolonga M.E. School. 467 501 968

223 Ranaima L.P. School 456 388 844

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR JONAI (ST) ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (DHEMAJI DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

86 TELAM JANAJATI HIGH SCHOOL RN 2 249 271 520

226 MISINGPUR L.P. SCHOOL RN 1 339 317 656

232 BORMURIYA L.P. SCHOOL RN 1 479 503 982

257 SRIPANI L.P. SCHOOL RN 2 443 408 851

266 CHOWKHAMTING L.P. SCHOOL RN 3 381 373 754

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED BASED ON THE PROBABILITY PROPORTIONATE TO SIZE (PPS) METHOD IN SELECTED RESERVED SCHEDULED CASTE (SC) ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCIES Methodology:

 Based on the objectivity, Assembly Constituencies in Haryana state are segregated into General Category and Reserved category in order to have proportionate hand on the both categories. So there are 8 reserved Scheduled Caste (SC) Assembly Constituencies (ACs) in the state and among them One AC was identified based on the PPS method.

 Totally, 245 Polling Stations are there in the selected SC Assembly Constituency.

 Among them, 5 Polling Stations are chosen for study through the method of Probability Proportionate to Size (PPS)

 Different shades of the ballots will be deployed for male and female voters will be executed in the Assembly Constituency.

 Thorough Training/Orientation with mock interviews among themselves for the research enumerators is planned before initiation of the study.

 Selected Reserved (SC) Assembly Constituencies on the Basis of Probability Proportionate To Size (PPS) Method (SC Assembly Constituencies) S. No District AC. No AC Name Polling Stations

1 Kamrup 48 Boko(SC) 245

POLLING STATIONS SELECTED ON THE BASE OF PPS METHOD FOR BOKO (SC) ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY (KAMRUP DISTRICT) Polling Total Name of the Polling station Male Female Station No Voters

15 Naitor L.P. School L/W 191 193 384

44 Mandira L.P. School 521 481 1002

93 Kismat Kathami L.P. School R/W 380 378 758

170 Bondapara Anchalik High School L/W 433 425 858

218 Bhehuwa Basic School L/W 341 325 666