A Report on Pulse of the Electorate in Assam
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A REPORT ON PULSE OF THE ELECTORATE IN ASSAM (Dates of Survey: 18/02/2016 to 28/02/2016) 1 SAMPLE PROFILE: Total Sample – 1661 GENDER AGE Male - 52.5% First Voter - 1.6% Female –47.5% 18-25 years –12.8% 26-35 years –28.4% 36-45 years –24.0% 46-60 years –22.2% 60 Above - 11.2% PLACE OCCUPATION Village - 81.3% Govt. Employee - 5.2% Small Town - 10.1% Daily Wage Labour - 12.3% Big Town - 6.2% Private Employee - 7.0% District HQ - 1.9% Farmer - 15.4% Assembly HQ – 0.5% Business - 11.6% Others - 48.5% 2 EDUCATION CASTE th Below 10 Class –42.4% General - 26.7% th Above 10 Class –28.4% OBC - 30.4% Degree -6.6% SC - 6.5% Post Graduate - 1.3% ST - 23.3% Professional - 0.8% Minority – 12.2% Uneducated - 20.5% Others - 1.0% 3 METHODOLOGY Peoples Pulse, a Hyderabad based research organisation, conducted a mood of the state survey in Assam from February 18th February to 28th February. The survey was conducted in 19 Assembly Constituencies out of 126 constituencies of Assam, which goes for elections in April 2016. Out of these 15 are General seats, three Scheduled Tribe seats and one Scheduled Caste seat. The segments were chosen on the basis of Population proportionate to size. Peoples Pulse, on the basis of the same methodology, identified five polling stations in each Assembly constituency with a sample size of 25-30 from each polling station. A secret ballot was also conducted as part of the survey. Students from the Gauhati University conducted the field work. The survey was supervised by Assistant Professor, Political Science Department, of Gauhati University, Dr Shubhrajeet Konwer and coordinated by Research Scholar Mr Nurul Hassan. Mr Bathula Suresh Babu, Doctoral Research Scholar, School of Economics Hyderabad Central University, and Co-ordinator, Peoples Pulse analysed the data. The survey was conducted just before the election schedule was announced. When the respondents were interviewed the BJP-AGP alliance was not firmed up and the contestants of the respective parties were also not identified. The survey might carry an Margin error of +or- 5 percent. 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In ensuing Assam Assembly Elections 2016, it appears a close fight between Congress and BJP allies. As per the predictions based on the survey conducted by People Pulse in the last week of February, the Congress would emerge as the single largest party in Assam, throwing up a hung Assembly. The main challenger to ruling Congress, the BJP, will be the second largest party and will be followed by AIUDF. This was the main finding of the survey conducted by Peoples Pulse. The Congress would win between 45-50 Assembly constituencies, with the BJP winning 35-40 Assembly seats. The AIUDF would get 15-20 seats. The AGP, the BPF and others would take the rest. The survey underlines the prevailing trend over the past 10-15 years that the voter views the Lok Sabha elections very differently. In a state Assembly election the voter’s priorities and concerns are different. The survey reflects this in full for the simple reason that; had the voter not made a distinction between state and national elections the BJP would have swept the elections. The Congress has managed to retain its traditional vote share despite being in power for 15 years. The BJP has increased its vote share at the expense of the AGP. The AIUDF has been unable to increase its appeal beyond its existing areas of support. 5 The survey and also the secret ballot conducted showed that the Congress would get 40.3 percent of the popular vote and the BJP would get around 37.4 percent. The number of seats that were worked out for each party was based on the vote share. These percentages were well reflected in another question on which party would win in a particular Assembly constituency. The preference for the next chief minister of Assam is Mr Tarun Gogoi with 39.9 percent of respondents. His main challenger Mr Sarbananda Sonowal got 32.5 percent. The survey asked the respondents on whom they preferred as the next chief minister without giving them any options. Congress leader who shifted to the BJP, Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma got 8.9 percent preference while AIUDF leader Mr Badruddin Ajmal got 5.4 percent. The two time chief minister and AGP leader Mr Prafulla Kumar Mohanta got 3.8 percent. The Congress is seeking its fourth successive term. Against this backdrop Mr Gogoi found 33.2 percent of the voters finding his performance good, with another 40 percent nodding an okay. 26.4 percent of the voters found his performance bad. Updating the NRC, prompt payment of salaries, BPL politics, good law and order and overall development have contributed to Mr Gogoi’s dominance in the existing political landscape. Mr Sonowal, who began as a firebrand youth leader, was referred to as the Jatiya Nayak of Assam. When voters were asked if he still enjoys the same status, 61.6 percent said ‘No’, while 21.5 percent said ‘Yes’. 6 When respondents were asked if they prefer the BJP forging an alliance with the AGP, 25.7 percent responded positively but as much as 74.3 percent were against it. This was amply reflected by the spate of protests at their respective party offices after the alliance was officially announced. On the other side when asked if they prefer the Congress having an alliance with the AIUDF, 32.3 percent said yes, while 67.7 percent rejected it. Respondents were asked which political party is better for the development of the state. The Congress was favoured by 43.6 percent. The BJP got 33.7 percent in its favour. The Survey suggest that people are vexed with prise rise, unemployment and these issues going to the primary factor that will influence him/her when they seek to exercise the franchisee. Immigrants’ issue continues be the dominant one in Assam. Peoples Pulse asked if the immigrants’ issue was an important issue or if it was being blown out of proportion. 52 percent said that is an important issue. Less than half of these with 23 percent said that it was blown out of proportion. In 2014 Lok Sabha elections the BJP promised that not a single immigrant would be allowed to stay in Assam after those elections. This struck a cord with the voters, who backed Mr Narendra Modi in the campaign causing the BJP to win seven of the 14 Parliament seats in the state. 7 This was further reflected at another response. The question was: is Mr Modi successful in implementing the promises made in 2014. 77.7 percent said “No”, with only 20.4 percent saying “Yes”. The respondents found both the Congress and the BJP equally capable of handling the immigrants’ issue. Further the land swap deal with Bangladesh, ST status to six communities, removal of subsidised ration for tea garden workers and the black money issues are not working for the BJP as they did in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Further instead of the Rs 1,000 crores promised to the Bodoland Territorial Areas Districts, only Rs 100 cr was earmarked in the recent Union Budget. This promise of Rs 1,000 cr made the BPF forge a tie-up with the BJP. It’s now not known if the less than the promised amount would impact the electorate. When asked if people from outside Assam can spoil the state’s culture and way of life, 46.3 percent ‘agreed’ and another 23.5 percent ‘somewhat agreed’. On the ULFA’s loss of popular support, 62.8 percent ‘agreed’ and 23 percent ‘somewhat agreed’. At another level if Bengali speaking Hindus from Bangladesh should be granted refugee status 43.2 percent ‘disagreed’ and 16.9 percent ‘somewhat disagreed’. 21.7 percent ‘agreed’ and 18.2 percent ‘somewhat agreed’. The NDA’s decision to grant these sections Indian citizenship has not found favour in Assam. 8 In parameters like electricity supply, education system, facilities in government hospitals, law and order and development of Assam, the respondents said there has been improvement. On corruption, roads and flood control, people said that they deteriorated. 70 percent said they benefitted from government schemes. 34.2 percent said that development of Assam is the most important election issue. Incumbency against the sitting candidates is a feature that is plaguing all political parties. 43.6 percent said they would not re-elect the present sitting MLA. Only 30 percent said they would re-elect the sitting MLA. This was reflected in another response. Respondents were asked what is the most important criterion for them to vote. 36.2 percent said it is the candidate that is the most important. This means that selection of candidates would be of prime importance to all political parties. Further the BJP lacks an organisational structure. The Congress, on the other hand, enjoys a good organisational strength and an appeal that spreads through all communities and across the three regions of Assam. At another level, BPF faces a severe test from Abodo Suraksha Samiti. The non-tribes are numerically strong and for the first time a non-tribe, Mr Naba Kumar Saraniya won the Lok Sabha seat in 2014. The behaviour of the non-Bodos is not known. 9 Most of the state elections in recent years have given decisive verdicts. Now Assam is headed for a hung Assembly, which was seen in Jammu & Kashmir last year. With exactly a month to go there are factors that would play a key role to have the last word in the elections.