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The Copenhagen Challenge: China, India, Brazil and South Africa at the Barricades コペンハーゲンへの挑戦−−中国・ブラジ ル・インド・南アフリカ共和国バリケードを張る

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The Copenhagen Challenge: China, India, Brazil and South Africa at the Barricades コペンハーゲンへの挑戦−−中国・ブラジ ル・インド・南アフリカ共和国バリケードを張る Volume 8 | Issue 8 | Number 4 | Article ID 3309 | Feb 22, 2010 The Asia-Pacific Journal | Japan Focus The Copenhagen Challenge: China, India, Brazil and South Africa at the Barricades コペンハーゲンへの挑戦−−中国・ブラジ ル・インド・南アフリカ共和国バリケードを張る Peter Lee, Eric Johnston The Copenhagen Challenge: China, climate effort. India, Brazil and South Africa at the In their joint communiqué, the four nations Barricades (Chinese translation promised to submit their emissions reductions available) goals—“voluntary mitigation actions” in the jargon—to the UN’s Framework Convention on Peter Lee with a post-mortem on Climate Change by January 31. The other Copenhagen’s COP15 by Eric Johnston substantive point covered was urging the On January 25, 2010, the West was handed the developed world to pony up the $10 billion it bill for continuing the Copenhagen climate had promised at Copenhagen in December change process: $10 billion for the developing 2009: world, due immediately. The invoice was delivered by Brazil, South The Ministers called for the early Africa, India, and China—the so-called “BASIC” flow of the pledged $10 bn in 2010 nations--after their meeting in New Delhi on with focus on the least developed January 25. countries, small island developing states and countries of Africa. (link) As the Indian media pointed out, this was a move by the BASIC countries to “claim the moral high ground”. In fact, the battle for the moral high ground—and political advantage—has been driving the international climate change negotiations since November of 2009. That was when the United States conceded that the U.S. Congress would not pass any climate change legislation before the Copenhagen climate summit. Representatives of the BASIC nations, Brazil, India, China and South Africa With President Obama unable to make any binding commitments on behalf of the United The four nations also transmitted a challenge States, the best Copenhagen could hope to from the world’s rising economic superpowers achieve was a political agreement—with a to the West’s continued leadership of the global healthy dose of political posturing. 1 8 | 8 | 4 APJ | JF The Obama administration made an interesting advance its climate change political agenda by but perhaps shortsighted choice in its selection asserting U.S. leadership at Copenhagen in of political targets—China and the other BASIC December 2009. countries. As a result, the chances for coordinated international action to mitigate That meant dealing with the China problem. global warming by reducing greenhouse gases—never good to start with—have become There is no question that China is at the heart virtually nonexistent. of the climate change dilemma. The Kyoto Treaty gave China and the other developing The United States is a late and still ambivalent countries a free pass while imposing legally player in the global warming game. The United binding emissions limits on the developed States Congress never ratified the Kyoto countries of Europe, East Asia, Australasia, and Treaty—a document designed to impose legally Russia. binding emissions limits on the 40 Annex 1 signatories representing the developed world. But nobody wants to give China a free pass anymore. China now has the distinction of President Obama came to office determined to being the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse restructure the U.S. economy around agases. And it’s going to get worse. As China’s vigorous response to climate change. His population grows and prospers and demands all approach was to legislate U.S. limits on the nice, energy-intensive things like greenhouse gases, then leverage the U.S. automobiles and electric appliances, its commitment into a robust successor treaty to production of greenhouse gases will inevitably Kyoto. increase, perhaps growing by 80% over the base year of 2000 by 2030. Unfortunately, the critical first step—Senate passage of the Waxman-Markey “American Nevertheless, China is a prominent participant Clean Energy and Security Act” a.k.a.in the world climate change conversation. ACES—fell victim to the delaying tactics of the Republicans and the Obama administration’s To a certain extent, strategies to reduce strategic decision to achieve a big healthcare greenhouse gas emissions dovetail with its own win first and parlay that victory into further energy-security and energy-efficiency legislative triumphs down the road. strategies. Its reliance on coal is an insurmountable obstacle to any effort to reduce As healthcare reform was slowly and cruelly its emissions on an absolute scale in the near eviscerated in the Senate, it was clear that future, but it is committed to reducing its Waxman-Markey was a project for 2010 at best, “energy intensity”—energy consumed per and President Obama would have to attend capita. Copenhagen under the Bush cloud—as president of a country that had never ratified China’s vision of its role in a future greenhouse the Kyoto treaty or passed any legislation to gas emissions regime probably draws on the limit greenhouse gases. example of Russia, the “invisible man” among the superpowers in climate change Instead of punting and hoping to get the ball negotiations. back in time to try to score some points at the 2010 climate meeting in Mexico (to use an With the post-1990 collapse of its heavy American football metaphor), the Obama industry, Russia is luxuriating under a administration made the decision to ignore its generous Kyoto cap negotiated with the USSR, lack of leverage and nevertheless try to selling hundreds of millions of dollars in offsets 2 8 | 8 | 4 APJ | JF to Europe, and working hard to avoid any If Copenhagen had stuck to the climate change scrutiny, let alone renegotiation, of its Kyoto lingua franca of “MRV”, things might have gone obligations. much more smoothly. No doubt China would also like to negotiate an However, “MRV” is not sufficiently red meat for advantageous emissions cap and then make a America’s contentious politics. Any little bit of financial hay by coming in under the international treaty that would impose legally cap and selling offsets as well as green binding limits on the United States would have technology and equipment to the developed to make sufficiently onerous demands on China world. and the other polluters in the developing world in order to have any chance of passing the In the context of carbon trade, China has hostile scrutiny of the U.S. Senate and gain the engaged in detailed discussions on the67 votes needed for ratification. monitoring, reporting, and verification or “MRV” issue—the need to document emissions Indeed, the received wisdom inside the United and reductions in order to create a tradable States is that not even the Waxman-Markey financial instrument. Indeed, it was claimed bill, a piece of domestic legislation, can get the that China and the United States had achieved sixty votes it needs in the Senate unless China a meeting of the minds on MRV during is pulling its weight. China-bashing being what President Obama’s trip to China in November it is, it was stated that “transparency” and 2009, paving the way for resolution of the issue “international verification” of China’s at Copenhagen. efforts—the adversarial terms usually reserved for arms, trade, and human rights issues and springing from the assumption that China can’t be trusted--were a necessary condition for pushing climate change legislation through the U.S. Congress. As the political newsletter The Hill put it: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), a liberal who strongly backs mandatory U.S. emissions curbs, also said the China verification issue is important. Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao “There is a sense that we have been burned on the free trade That was possibly the case. Certainly, there agreements in terms of was a lot of discussion about MRV in the noncompliance,” Whitehouse said. context of sovereignty, applying it in different degrees depending on whether mitigation In addition to his own concerns, projects were undertaken locally or were Whitehouse said that an absence of foreign-funded, or would be eligible for some outside verification of China’s international payday under global cap-and- efforts would provide fuel for trade. critics of climate legislation. 3 8 | 8 | 4 APJ | JF “It helps the opponents of the bill guess the first biggest emitter, and who argue it will lead to an exodus now nearly, if not already, the of jobs because of comparative second biggest economy. advantage problems,” he said. President Obama tried to play good cop after The Obama administration came tohe arrived in Copenhagen: Copenhagen determined to talk about “transparency” instead of “MRV”--and demanded that China accept its demand for “These measures need not be “transparency” or face a loss of its standing intrusive, or infringe upon with the lesser developed countries. sovereignty,” he said, in a direct reference to the concerns In advance of President Obama’s arrival, expressed by Chinese officials, who Secretary of State Hillary Clinton laid out the have been balking at proposed American position: verification measures. “They must, however, ensure that …in the context of a strong accord an accord is credible, and that we in which all major economies stand are living up to our obligations. For behind meaningful mitigation without such accountability, any actions and provide full agreement would be empty words transparency as to their on a page.” implementation, the United States is prepared to work with other countries toward a goal of jointly Perhaps the Obama administration intended to mobilizing $100 billion a year by act out some political kabuki for the benefit of 2020 to address the climate the suspicious U.S. domestic audience: first use change needs of developing the tougher (and more loaded) term of countries.
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