Socioeconomic Consequences

Nature Road between and

2 CONTENTS

1 SUMMARY 3 2 INTRODUCTION 4 3 BACKGROUND 4 3. Danish Arctic Contractor’s and Geoplan’s Projects in the 1960s 5 3.2 Impact Assesment of 5 3.3 Joint Report between Sisimiut Municipality and Home Rule . 5 3.4 Rambøll’s environmental assessment 6 3.5 Sisimiut Municipality's business plan for A / S Umimmak Traffic 7 3.6 Business potentials from the road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq 8 3. 7 ARTEK's Route Suggestions 8 3.8 Transport Commission's report 9 3.9 New Ideas on the road. 9 4. SOCIOECONOMIC COSTS OF THE NATURE ROAD 11 4.1 Construction Costs 11 4.2 Operating Costs 13 5 SOCIOECONOMIC BENEFIT FROM THE NATURE ROAD 14 5.1 Use by Locals 14 5.2 Development of Tourism 15 5.3 Living Resources 17 5.4 Research 18 5.5 Other Benefits 21 6. SOCIOECONOMIC RESULTS 21

3 1. SUMMARY In connection with the road project between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq, a number of feasibility studies have been conducted over the years and various reports have been prepared. There are primarily different roadmaps / routes and related economies, as well as the economic opportunities as a result of the road and to finance the road. A new northern road route through the Nerumaq Valley and north of Tasersuaq appears technically easier and environmentally more attractive than the previously explored routes. The technical challenges with Itinneq are due to the difficult Itinneq area with difficult ground conditions in the valley, steep mountainsides from the valley and lack of road materials on the plateaus on both sides. Environmentally, the Itinneq valley is home to a rich wildlife. The northern route also passes the ancient summer camp Aasivissuit, which is the center of the UNESCO World Heritage Site in Municipality. The northern route has been transposed and surveyed in 2015-2016, where an appropriate location of the route has been found, avoiding significant blasting and stealing passages. Against this background it is estimated that a nature road without a roadbed as in traditional road construction costs 15 million. dkk and has annual operating costs of ½ million dkk. The nature road will be passable for much of the year in the east, while a shorter period of use in the western part may be assumed. A socioeconomic analysis has been prepared which shows that the expected socioeconomic income from the nature road exceeds construction and operating costs. The present value of the socio-economic income can be estimated as 50.4 million dkk from tourism, 13.9 million dkk from living resources, and 2.2 million. dkk from research.

Costs / Benefits Constuction Operative costs Tourism living resources research Mio. dkk. -15,0 -6,8 50,4 13,9 2,2 The socio-economic analysis shows that the investment of 15 million.dkk is earned in 7 years, so with construction in 2017, the economy will go to zero (break-even) in 2024. It is the tourism sector that generates the positive result, since over 75% of the measurable gains are attributable to tourists. Tourists are divided into different segments at different seasons, so the positive outcome of the socio-economic analysis seems robust.

4 2 INTRODUCTION Investigations on the possibility of a road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq have been made for approx. 50 years, but it is very remarkable that the plan of the very accessible and cheap route north of Tasersuaq has first been investigated in recent years. In previous times the ideas of building roads were due the vastness fjords etc. focussed on the immediate vicinity of towns like Sisimiut, Kangerlussuaq and others in Greenland. The central authorities - first in the form of the Greenland Ministry and then as the Greenland Home Rule Government - have, since the first thoughts of a road arose, rejected the plans and did not want to finance the road nor even to co-finance it. Meanwhile the transport between the two places has increased - in winter with dog sledges, snowmobiles, cross country skiers and fat bikers - in the summer with hikers on the famous Arctic Circle Trail. Motorized vehicles have also become more robust, stronger and economically viable for the population, hunters, tourist operators, etc., during this period.

The Council of Qeqqata Municipality has therefore decided to set up a nature road on existing terrain, where Qeqqata Municipality’s budget allocates 15 million dkk to the nature road / ATV track between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq in the years 2016-17. In addition to that 6 million dkk have been allocated to a road between Sisimiut and Solbakken and 1 million dkk for an EIA 1 study. The EIA study is carried out by Rambøll Greenland, while the present report concerns the socio- economic consequences of the nature road. 3 BACKGROUND In the 1960s, the first analyzes of a road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq were carried out when Danish Arctic Contractors prepared a preliminary project. A route with a 4 meter wide roadway from Kangerlussuaq south of Tasersuaq via Maliaq a little north of Sarfannguaq was

1 English: EIA = Environmental Impact Assessment - Danish: VVM = Vurdering af Virkninger på Miljøet. 5 estimated in 1969 to have the lowest annual transport costs. The plan was rejected by the Ministry of Greenland. In the 2000s plans were resumed by the then Sisimiut Municipality (now Qeqqata Municipality) and the Center for Arctic Technology (ARTEK). A route with a 6.5 meter wide roadbed of this route was estimated in 2003 to cost 250-300 million. The plan was rejected by Greenland's Home Rule Government. In the 2010s Qeqqata Kommunia launched plans for a nature road based on both a new route and new technological achievements with motorized vehicles. A 3 meter wide road on the route north of Tasersuaq and via the Nerumaq valley is estimated to cost 15 million. Funds are allocated in Qeqqata Municipality's budget in 2016-2017. 3.1 Danish Arctic Contractor’s og Geoplan’s project in the 1960s In 1964, Danish Arctic Contractors prepared a preliminary project for a road link between Søndre Strømfjord and Holsteinsborg, which was handed to the Ministry of Greenland. It is not known if it was presented to the Americans. In the following years, the ministry wrote, inter alia, that it was "a political question of allowing such an actual US activity outside of the defense areas" and "execution of the road to Holsteinborg would create a disgusting development in this city that was not intended" . Holsteinsborg’s Municipal Council recommended closer investigations, especially on the basis of tourism potential, but the Ministry completed the case. 3.2 Impact Assessment of Sisimiut Municipality In 2003, Sisimiut Municipality published an impact assessment that concluded that… • a road will be economically profitable for the Greenlandic community; • a road will have great benefits for all of Greenland; • a road will increase the flexibility, availability and regularity of Greenlandic traffic and reduce the price; • a road will be the missing link between the internal coastal and external air traffic in Greenland; • a road will allow more tourists to come cheap and flexible around Greenland; • a road will provide stores in Greenland with cheaper without airtransport; • a road will open up a business development in Sisimiut and municipalities, especially with regard to fresh fish, minerals and hydropower, as well as clean ice and water; • a road will bind the town of Sisimiut and the locations of Kangerlussuaq and Sarfannguaq together; • a road will lead to less polluting transport than the existing transport structure; • a road was already economically profitable in the 1960s.

3.3 Joint Report between Sisimiut Municipality and Grønland Home Rule Sisimiut Municipality and Greenland's Home Rule Committee set up a joint steering committee and working group, investigating road projects based on the impact assessment. The report was completed in 2005 and concluded, among others: Sisimiut Municipality's impact assessment appears as a very reasonable outline and is considered a good and well-implemented product The cost-benefit part of the impact assessment also appears as a well-considered work: • The most important source of income of the project is the relocation of existing traffic from air to road / ship. A large part of the assumptions behind these estimates seem very likely and are a good starting point for further analysis. There are a lot of other consequences and assumptions that should be investigated further. • The present value of the project, based on the current traffic structure, is very positive. 6

• From a commercial perspective, a combination of an Atlantic airport in Kangerlussuaq, Sisimiut open-water port and a road link between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq will provide a better infrastructure basis for strengthening business development opportunities in Sisimiut as in other parts of West Greenland. • It seems crucial that the decision on the road project and any possible airport at Nuuk is linked. However, it is not possible, on the basis of the municipality's impact assessment, to present the full consequences for the road project, if an 1199-meter lane or Atlantic airport in Nuuk was established. However, it can be established that a roadmap between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq, in isolation, will reduce the socio-economic benefits of extending the landing lanes in Nuuk and Ilulissat - and vice versa. • Mittarfeqarfiit and Rambøll have arrived at estimated construction costs of 490 and 250 million respectively. The difference is thus 240 million. Thus, quite a considerable amount. Based on this, Greenland’s Home Rule members in the steering committee stated that "such essential uncertainties should be clarified at least before it is advisable to allocate additional funding for design", while Sisimiut Municipality representatives stated the "feasability of a road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq".

3.4 Rambøll's environmental assessment In 2006, Rambøll prepared an initial environmental screening of the road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq, comparing two different road routes in the eastern part of Kangerlussuaq. Environmental screening pointed out that a road south of Amitsorsuaq was preferable compared to a road south of Tasersuaq. 14 areas were designated to be sensitive: In the description of the nature of the individual sections, the following areas were given the following quantitative reference: 1) Area V of Umiarsualivik (Strømfjordshavn): 2 lines 2) At site 338 north of Umiarsualivik (Strømfjordshavn): 3 lines 3) Sea area NV for Umiarsualivik (Strømfjordshavn): 18 lines 4) Area south of Aasivissuit Tasiat: 2 lines 5) Area east of Tasersuaq: 1 line 7 6) Area north of Amitsorsuaq: 2 lines 7) Amitsorsuaq: 3 lines 8) Taserssuaq: 6 lines 9) The area southeast of Kangerluatsiarsuaq: 2 lines 10) Eqalivia: 2 lines 11) Ikkarluttooq: 3 lines 12) Itinneq ("Oles Lakseelv") at the northern arm of the fjord Maligiaq: 31 lines 13) Dalstrøg east of the fjord Kangerluarssuk Tulleq: 2 lines 14) Area between Amitsorsuaq and the coast: 1 line Area 12 Itinneq was clearly the top score and begins with the following words: “Very varied and naturally very valuable area in an approx. 2 km wide valley streams" and concluded with the following words: "Any road construction through the area, on the other hand, must be considered to have sustained negative impact on especially the stock of Greenland permafrost in both the construction phase and after establishment due to increased and critical traffic and hunting in the area." Area 3 Sea area NV for Umiarsuilivik is the only other area that is recommended to avoid.

3.5 Sisimiut Municipylity’s business plan for A/S Umimmak Traffic Sisimiut Municipality announced in 2006 a business plan for A / S Umimmak Traffic, which recommended that the municipality, together with the Home Rule Board, took over all traffic infrastructure in the municipality, and first settled the Sisimiut Port and subsequently the road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq. A / S Umimmaak Traffic should • Extend, renovate, maintain and operate airports in Sisimiut Municipality • Extend, renovate, maintain and operate the ports of Sisimiut Municipality • construct, maintain and drive the road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq • have invested share capital from both Greenland's Home Rule Government and Sisimiut Municipality with every 90 million dkk and remain in public administration. Qeqqata Municipality approved in 2010 that this plan should form the basis of the whole new municipality, and thus also the traffic infrastructure in former Maniitsoq municipality. Greenland's Home Rule Government / Self-Government has not wanted to realize A / S Umimmak Traffic.

8 3.6 Business potentials from the road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq In 2008, Sisimiut Municipality drafted a report on the business potential of a road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq. The report was never completed and published but contained the following 9 chapters on business potentials: • Aquatic resources • Living resources • Tourism • Research • Ice and water • Hydropower • Minerals • Supply base • Air freight center These options will be discussed later in the report, especially with the 4 former potentials, they also seem to be very good opportunities for utilizing them with a nature road.

3.7 ARTEK’s Route Suggestions ARTEK published a line item proposal in 2009. ARTEK employees had undergone the original route proposed in the 1960s. It was photographed in 2003 by Scankort, which produced orthophotos. ARTEK students were flown into challenging places along the route in 2006, and ARTEK also designed a digital height model. ARTEK investigated whether there were sufficient road materials along the route and difficult passages. Concerning road materials, ARTEK concluded that "Greater amounts of potentially useful road construction materials are available several places along the road" but also "that sections such as the Uttoqqaat and Maligiaq area and the highways between Itinneq Valley and Amitsorssuaq do not contain larger amounts of usable material." Concerning difficult passages, the Itinneq area was highlighted as difficult both ifm. passage of wetlands and steep passages. The passage of wetland was as follows: "The transition over Itinneq (Oles Lakseelv) is perceived as one of the major challenges along the route. Over the year the river sometimes can have a width of more than 200 m. In the line proposal we have found a narrow place above the tidal expiration which we estimate will give the smallest problems. Soil conditions are detailed here and show clay deposits over 100 meters thick.” In the case of steep passages, the following mention was made of "around the fjord cliff east of the Itinneq delta's mouth. It is steep, but the mountain range is supposed to be of good quality and therefore suitable for the road on it" and further on the crossing south of Itinneq. “It will probably be necessary to bust a passage into the rock." 9

3.8 Transport Commission’s report In 2011, the Transport Commission presented its report, with no mention of business development, but only optimization of existing traffic conditions. The Transport Commission concluded overall that "socioeconomically, it is profitable to move the country's central airport from Kangerlussuaq to Nuuk at the current location with a 2200 m lane" under the reservation "as stated in section 6.2.2, however, that there are reguarly turbulence conditions". The Transport Commission also considered that "from a socio-economic perspective, it is not realistic to establish a road link between Kangerlussuaq and Sisimiut. The conclusion applies both with and without the preservation of the airport in Sisimiut. On this basis, therefore, the Commission will not further consider the construction of roads between Kangerlussuaq and Sisimiut. As stated, the stated assessment relates to a situation where the airport in Kangerlussuaq is preserved as today. In a socio-economic context, this starting point must be seen as the most favorable starting point for achieving societal profitability of a road link between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq. If the airport in Kangerlussuaq is not maintained as today, the socio-economic profitability of the road will be significantly reduced in comparison with a situation in which the Kangerlussuaq airport is preserved.

3.9 New Ideas on the Road Due to the major challenges with the existing route in and around Itinneq (archeology, nature and environmental conditions, soft ground conditions in Itinneq as well as steep passages and lack of building materials east and west of Itinneq), a new northern route north of Tasersuaq will be investigated in the summer of 2012. At the same time, it means that the route from Sisimiut to Kangerlussuaq can be conveniently placed via the Nerumaq valley. This route was already investigated by ARTEK ifm. in 2004 in connection with an alternative route between Sisimiut and Itinneq. This route was actually abandoned due to the fact that it did not go close to Sarfannguit and partly because the last section down to Itinneq was very difficult, cf. the report's conclusion: "Subdivisions 1 and 2 are very wet, as well as crossing a series of rivers and river streams. These conditions are expected to be problematic in connection with both construction and 10 maintenance of the road. Subdivisions 3, 4 and 5 are relatively problem free, with the only problems associated with falling and rising problems in some stretches. However, these problems are not considered to be of great importance as there will be the possibility of establishing serpentine roads. On the last part of part 6, the road crosses a mountain ridge, which causes both a sharp rise and a very sharp fall. The passage of the mountain back is expected to be very problematic with regard to the requirements of the road's maximum percentage increase and decrease, why an alternative location may and may be considered. "

Based on local references to a previous hiking route north of Tasersuaq and the start of the UNESCO project, a route to the north of Itinneq and north of Tasersuaq to the east end of Tasersuaq is being investigated in the summer of 2012. The immediate conclusions are that this route is easier to access than itinerary via Itinneq.

Bold selection is a new trace, while thin marking is previously investigated trace. In autumn 2013, the possibilities for moving from Kangerlussuaq to the location of a future port in Kangerlussuaq and from Kangerlussuaq to the historical summer settlement Aasivissuit, the center of UNESCO World Heritage Site in Qeqaata Municipality, are investigated. 11 In 2014, different options for the overall road project are being considered, and to start slowly at each end. That is, from Kangerlussuaq to the harbour and then up to Aasivissuit. Similarly from Sisimiut to the bottom of Kangerluarsuk Tulleq. The possibility of a connection between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq by road from Kangerlussuaq to the east end of Tasersuaq and then boat to Sisimiut is also considered. Overall, the idea of a nature road (ATV track) occurs because:  There can not be funding for a real road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq.  A new route north of Tasersuaq will be possibly without much major blasting work.  Availability for concrete potentials is requested o near Kangerlussuaq to new port, to lakes, to biltest areas, and to Aasivissuit. o near Sisimiut to the ski area Solbakken and to the cottage area at the bottom of Kangerlusarsuk Tulleq.  Motorized vehicles such as ATVs, UTVs and Unimogs 2 appear very mobile and can drive without expensive roads. Qeqqata’s Municipal Council decides on February 26, 2015 that further work will be carried out with an ATV trace between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq, and that the Self-Administration must be asked for the introduction of ATV tracker and safety device on ATVs. Qeqqata’s Municipal Council decides to allocate 15 million dkk in autumn 2015 to ATV traces between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq, 1 million. dkk for the EIA survey and 6 million. dkk to the road from Sisimiut to Solbakken in budget 2016 and the fiscal years. 4. SOCIOECONOMIC COSTS OF THE NATURE ROAD 4.1 Construction Costs In August 2015 Ramb øll completed the northern route from Kangerlussuaq north of Tasersuaq and through the Nerumaq Valley to Sisimiut, both for the purpose of selecting traces and environmental assessment / EIA. In the summer of 2016 selected stretches were examined further, including the water barrier zone in Sisimiut.

2 ) The original text calls them „Umimoq“ 12

Overall, it is not at all the same challenges with the northern route as with the route through Itinneq. There are neither soft bottom areas as in Itinneq nor steep slopes as south of Itinneq and north of Sarfannguit. Only a few places must be blown to ensure that terrain vehicles can get through the stretches. Against this background it is still estimated that it is possible to construct the nature road for approx. 15 million dkk.

13 4.2 Operating Costs The nature road must, as a rule, be passable for all major terrain motorized vehicles during the period mid June to early October. Due to the low rainfall and the relatively stable climate, the eastern part of the road from Kangerlussuaq to Pingu / Itinneq will be able to be used most of the year, although the road during the peak periods, mainly in May, will not be possible. The western part of the road will not be able to be used directly during the launch period from October to May, but for much of this period it will facilitate off-road vehicles that ATVs and UTVs could drive on top of the compacted snow, mainly during the period December to April, snowmobiles already drive the route. With an underlying nature road under the snow, it will be safer to move in the future.

It is very difficult to estimate operating costs. As a starting point, the nature road is located on existing terrain, and primary resources are used to remove stone in the terrain, exterminating mountains in some places and ensuring the passage of a large number of larger or smaller streams. The nature road must be able to be used by 4-wheel off road vehicles. It is assumed as a starting point that no means are used to clear snow so that the primary operating cost will be after the flood repairs. It will primarily be in the western part where the larger volumes and amounts of water will primarily cause the water overflows to be destroyed or the soil is washed away. The water overflows must necessarily be repaired with new solutions, as well as the nature road for landslides or landfill rinsing will have to be restored. There will also be a risk that water will lie in the trail, so there may be additional measures to guide the water away. But overall, operating expenses should be below ½ million dkk annually. 14 5 SOCIOECONOMIC BENEFIT FROM THE NATURE ROAD While a built-up gravel road, possibly partially asphalted, will be a traffic route that results in cheaper and better traffic between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq and thus between the coast and the country's international airport, a nature road based on this terrain could not be used as a traffic route. While it is expected that cars on a built-up gravel / asphalt road will be able to drive an average of 60 km/h, so that the distance between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq can be driven in approx. 2½ hours, then the speed of a nature road is likely to be only one third of that, i.e. an average 20 km h and thus about 8 hours. Thus, a nature road will not be a direct competitor for the current transport by air between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq. Replacement of existing air traffic with respect to people and freight by road traffic was the primary rationale for the impact assessment and business plan for A/S Umimmak Traffic. The rationale for a nature road is thus not to execute existing traffic in a more appropriate way, but basically generate new gains. Such gains are always assumed to be by road, but they have not previously been investigated, except for the unfinished and unpublished Business Impact Report from 2008. In addition to business potential, there is also the locals own use of the nature road for recreational purposes, which will be described and assessed in the next sections. 5.1 Use by Locals The 2003 impact assessment refers to 3 topics for the population's use of the area between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq on a road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq. It is recreational use, cultural history and hunting and fishing. With a nature road, the recreational use of the country becomes possible when locals on their own legs and with bicycles as well as on motorized vehicles can get easier into the nature. As Kangerlussuaq already has good access to the road into nature, this advantage will primarily be considered new to the people of Sisimiut and thus benefit them. The impact assessment indicated that especially the less well-off by road would have the opportunity to get into nature, as a large proportion of the population do not have access to summer boats or snowmobiles in the winter. As for the tourists (referred to in the next section), a nature road will not only give the population access to the area, but also provide security. At present, the safety of the people going into the nature is limited, as the vast distances and lack of mobile coverage and unpredictable weather limit this. A nature road will especially allow in summer to be able to get into nature, although the wind does not allow sailing in the fjords. New accessible areas such as the inland around the bottom of Kangerlusarsuk Tulleq will allow Sisimiut citizens to have weekends out in nature without the use of boats, snowmobiles and dog sledges. An important security and experience element for the individual citizen/family is also that other users will use the nature road. In other words, a nature road becomes self-reinforcing for the citizens' use of nature when others move along the road. But there will still be plenty of opportunities to experience the country on its own, especially from the bottom of Kangerluarsuk Tulleq, where you can travel in many different directions: o north to the glacier Aqqutikitsoq, o west with joller, qajaq and canoes at Kangerlusarsuk Tulleq, o southwards to the mountain peak Aappilattorsuaq and the cottage area at Narsaq, 15 o southeastwards to Utoqqaat and Sarfannguit o east of the nature road into the Nerumaq Valley. A better understanding of local cultural history becomes possible when it is both conveyed more clearly to all UNESCO World Heritage Records and when access to important national past memories becomes accessible by nature. Special access to the summer residence Aassivissuit is supposed to attract the culture-historically interested citizens in both Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq. But there are also other ancient monuments from the different cultures throughout the ages, including the area of Itinneq and Umiivik in Tasersuaq Lake. As described in the impact assessment, some kind of open-air museum will be an exciting supplement to the museums in town and village, as well as the initiatives to convey the world heritage for locals and tourists in the UNESCO project will increase the population's traffic to these sites. Citizens' access to fishing in Kangerlusarsuk Tulleq as well as the nearby river and lake at the bottom of Kangerlusarsuk Tulleq from Sisimiut will be improved as the citizens of both Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq are supposed to use Tasersuaq for fishing, although fishing possibilities are limited. Access to fishing in lakes and fjords not just by nature will also be improved, eg Maliaq and Utoqqaat Lake. Likewise, access to berries and plants will be improved. It is difficult to calculate the gains for the citizens in crowns and øre which will not be done in this report. 5.2 Development of Tourism The current tourism between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq is on the rise. During the summer, more and more tourists are walking on the Arctic Circle Trail, and in winter more and more tourists are driving on dog sledding and snowmobiling as well as skiing and lasting on fatbikes. All of these tourists are included in the adventure segment, which has also been the focus of the region's marketing of the possibilities between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq. With a nature road, the possibilities for these adventure opportunities will be available to a larger customer group, with the choice between all possible combinations and trip lengths of these options as well as, in particular, payment / expenses in relation to the tourist preferences. The tourist will be happy with a dog sledge or cross-country tour of one or two days duration, so to be driven the last piece with a motorized vehicle. The tourist will be able to walk halfway or one-third between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq, then drive the rest of the road. In addition, the same aspect of security as discussed above in the previous section about the population's approach to nature. For the vast majority of tourists, safety is essential when booking a holiday. The ability to get the tourist or public preparedness up to the tourist along the nature road will give the tourist the confidence and make it interesting for many more to go on the route between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq knowing that an ATV is just a call away. But most importantly, the nature road opens up all the new tourism opportunities. Basically, it is the same opportunities as mentioned above with regard to the locals/ citizens' possibilities in nature. These opportunities do not currently have access to Greenland tourists in the same way as in other countries with roads. In Greenland you have to pay expensive for every experience, as accessibility to nature experiences requires P-approved boats or helicopters in the summer if the tourist is not ready to walk on their own - and the tourists' walk on their own gives minimal income to Greenland community. Rent of motorized vehicles and bicycles as well as guided tours along the nature road will give revenue to tourist companies, but private citizens and hunters will also be able to rent their motorized vehicles either directly to the tourist or to the tourist operators. Particularly interesting is that hunters use large-scale ATVs for winter hunting in January and February. These vehicles 16 stand still and do not provide income for the hunters during the tourist season in the summer and partly in the spring months, although there is also a certain trophy hunt with the use of ATVs.

Especially in summer the nature road will provide new opportunities. This should be seen in the light of the fact that there are already a number of different transports in use in winter, namely dog sledging, snowmobiling, cross country skiing and fate bikes, which generate revenue for tourist operators in the community. But in summer, it is primarily hiking tourism where tourists do not rent local equipment or buy local services during their hike, so the revenue for the community from their visit is primarily in the form of overnight, excursions and transport at each end of the hike, primarily in Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq. It is estimated that there are respectively: • 600 tourists who travel between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq during the summer • 100 tourists running dog sledding, snowmobiling, cross-country skiing or cycling between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq in the winter It is estimated that the number of tourists between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq develops as follows with a nature road: • The number of tourists traveling between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq in the summer will increase to 900 during 3 years, then increase by 2% annually (which should be noted that a large amount will continue via Sarfannguit to avoid to wander through nature road through the Nerumaq valley). • The number of tourists who want to travel a part of the route between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq in the summer will go from no one today to 300 in 3 years and then increase by 2% annually. • The number of tourists driving dog sledging, snowmobiling, cross-country skiing or cycling between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq in winter will increase to 160 during 3 years and then increase by 2% annually. • The number of tourists who want to go dog sledging, snowmobiling, cross country skiing or cycling a part of the route between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq in the winter will go from no one today to 100 during 3 years and then increase by 2% annually. • The number of tourists who will travel all the way between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq on the nature road will go from no one today to 300 in 3 years and then increase by 2% annually. • The number of tourists who will drive part of the road from Sisimiut in the future to return to Sisimiut after staying at the bottom of Kangerlusarsuk Tulleq, Nerumaq Valley, Pingu area or Tasersuaq will go from no one today to 150 during 3 year to increase by 2% annually. 17 • The number of tourists who will in future drive a part of the road from Kangerlussuaq to return to Kangerlussuaq after staying at Aasivissuit, Tasersuaq or Pingu area will go from no one today to 500 in 3 years and then increase by 2 % yearly. The benefits of the tourists vary considerably depending on whether they are still coming and spending more time in the region (or even replacing current experiences with the new experiences on the nature road) or if they would not have visited the region / Greenland at all if the nature road did not give new opportunities . Attracting whole new tourists will give far greater socio-economic gains, as the new tourists like other tourists will also experience Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq's tourist offer, respectively. Overall, after 2017 construction, 3 years after 2020, tourists will be along the nature road, the last heading indicating how many will be new tourists in the region: Forms of tourism 201 2020 % new 7 tourists Summer/hiking tourists on the entire route 600 900 100% Summer/hiking tourists on a part of the route 0 300 50% Winter-sledge/snowscooter/ fatbike on the entire route 100 160 100% Winter-sledge/snowscooter/ fatbike on a part of the route 0 100 50% Tourists driving on the entire route 0 300 50% Tourists with a return trip from Sisimiut 0 150 20% Tourists with a return trip from Kangerlussuaq 0 500 10% total 700 2.410 The Transport Commission assumed that holiday tourists stayed on average 4 days in Greenland and spent dkk 1100 per day on accommodation, catering, excursions, souvenirs and small purchases and dkk 4500 for air transport and a minimum of dkk 699 for taxes totaling a minimum of dkk 9450. socioeconomic gain, the transport commission estimated at 50% for tourist consumption locally, 0% on air transport and 100% on taxes. It is assumed that tourists will spend a total of two days and thus 2200 dkk on the route. Some of the new tourists on or along the road would not have come to Greenland if it had not been a nature road. These new tourists will spend another 2 days more in the region/country and spend 2200 dkk more as well as pay taxes of 699 dkk. The socioeconomic gain per new tourist in the region is 2899 dkk. (Equivalent to 50% of 4400 + 100 % of 699 dkk). The other tourists on or along the road were already in the region and will not increase their consumption in excess of the 2200 dkk. For a two-day stay on the route. The additional socioeconomic gain per existing tourist in the region is 1100 dkk. (Equivalent to 50% of 2200 dkk). 5.3 Living Resources One of the major business potentials with a road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq has been the export of fresh fish and shellfish. The current challenges with poor regularity at the coast and thus airports near the fish and shellfish catchments have made this impossible. A road will allow fresh fish and shellfish caught near by the coast to be transported along this road to Kangerlussuaq, from where it can be transported by plaine to restaurants in the rest of the world. A nature road does not immediately allow fresh fish and shellfish from Sisimiut to be transported to Kangerlussuaq. Partly, the terrain in the western part near Sisimiut is by far the most difficult on the route between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq, and on the other hand, near Kangerlussuaq. But there seems to be a possibility that an export can be achieved from Maliaq near Sarfannguit. Via the existing ATV-track built in connection with the hydropower construction there will be access to the nature road at Pingu north of Itinneq. From here, the nature road to Kangerlussuaq can be used in larger parts of the year, while in winter it is a relatively stable trail on the [frozen] lakes of Amitsorsuaq or Tasersuaq. There is also a market for fresh fish and shellfish in 18 Kangerlussuaq, where there are already many tourists. Overall, Sarfannguit fishermen/hunters may find themselves in the forefront of earning fresh fish and shellfish. Another business potential with a road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq is the possibility of creating musk ox or reindeer farms. The northerner route north of Tasersuaq also means a better access to the vast highland area north of the Pingu mountains. This area is the most obvious area for animal farms in the area between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq.

If this potential is to be exploited commercially, it will be necessary to omit this area for free hunting and instead assign the area in concession to a hunting society. The previous experiments in Kangerlussuaq with a simple form of musk ox farm in the form of mosquito cushions have not been successful. This is probably because it does not change the hunting pressure and hunting, as there is still free hunting, which does not lead to optimal control of the number of calves, cows and bulls. Without a concession, a musk ox farm will not be realistic. This potential is currently not possible to pursue with existing legislation. On the other hand, musk ox meat is already running from Kangerlussuaq to the coast in winter, but it is dependent on an uncertain winter route. With a nature road, there will be greater certainty for the transport of meat from Lilleholm's slaughterhouse in Kangerlussuaq to the company's main production site in Maniitsoq. It provides economies of scale, reduces electricity costs to freezers, provides faster sales and reduces liquidity. It is estimated that the sale of living resources via Maliaq and Kangerlussuaq will develop as follows with a nature road: • Sales of fresh fish and shellfish from Maliaq to Kangerlussuaq will rise from zero in 2017 to 200 kg a day for 250 days a year corresponding to 50 tonnes over 3 years and then increase by 5% annually. • Transport of frozen meat of musk oxen and reindeer from Kangerlussuaq to Maliaq will rise from an average of 25 tonnes in 2017 to 50 tonnes in 2020 The effect of the transportation of living resources on a nature road: living resources 2017 2020 Tons of fresh fish and shellfish from Maliaq to Kangerlussuaq 0 50 Tons of frozen muskox- and reindeer-meat from Kangerlussuaq to Maliaq 25 50 and on to Maniitsoq total 25 100 It is assumed that each kilo gives an extra income of 10 dkk, which is incorporated as a socio- economic gain. 50 tonnes of fresh [meat] and shellfish will give a socioeconomic gain of ½ million dkk in 2020, while the 50 tonnes of frozen meat will only yield a socio-economic gain of ¼ million dkk in 2020.

19 5.4 Research Both Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq are centers of research. Sisimiut is home to the technological education in Greenland, so there is a lot of research on permafrost, road construction/-operation, hydroelectric production, waste management, etc., where access to the land area between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq would improve research. Similarly, Kangerlussuaq is home to Kangerlussuaq International Science Support (KISS), from which primarily research is done in climate change based on the ice sheet. Most discussed are undoubtedly ice-core drilling on the ice sheet, but considerable research is also taking place on the road from Kangerlussuaq to the ice ice and up in the periphery of the ice sheet. In addition, Kangerlussuaq's special location has a long way inland and its zoological possibilities with musk oxen, reindeer etc. also been home to one of the research. A large part of the existing research in Kangerlussuaq will get improved conditions in climate research and research in plants and zoology in the Arctic mainland climate if there is a nature [road] between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq.

Arctic Researchstations Over the years, the ice cape has pushed and pulled back and forth between the coast and farther on the ice sheet than at present. A better understanding of current climate change also implies a better understanding of the movement of the inlandice over the past millennia, so road access to the area between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq will be useful. Similar to botanic and zoology. Another area of research that will benefit from a nature road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq will be the landuse between the coast and the ice sheet by human beings. This issue is the background for the forthcoming admission of Aasivissuit-Nipisat on the UNESCO World Heritage List. A joint inventory by UNESCO of the hunter culture in the area and a nature road will lead to a greater focus on cultural research in the area. Yes, overall, the area could look forward to becoming the primary research area for inuit culture through millennia. 20 It is estimated that the research between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq will develop as follows with a nature road: • The number of technological researchers and students based on ARTEK/KTI in Sisimiut will increase from 50 in 2017 to 80 over 3 years and then increase by 2% annually • The number of climate-researcher, zoologists, and students based on KISS in Kangerlussuaq will increase from 300 in 2017 to 360 over 3 years and then increase by 1% annually. • The number of cultural and social science researchers and students will increase by 0 through 2017 to 20 during 3 years and then increase by 3% annually

Overall, following the construction in 2017 (3 years after), 2020 will be the following researchers along the nature road, the last heading indicating how many will be new researchers in the region: Categories of Tourists 3 [scientists] 2017 2020 % new researchers Scientists from ARTEK/KTI in Sisimiut 50 80 50% Scientists from KISS in Kangerlussuaq 300 360 50% Scientists from UNESCO 0 20 90% registration of World Heritage total 350 480 It is assumed that a researcher consumes a little over half as much as a tourist per day for accommodation, catering, excursions, souvenirs and small purchases equal to 600 dkk per day as well as a tourist minimum of 699 dkk on charges. The socio-economic gain, like the tourist, will be 50% for the researcher's consumption locally and 100% on charges. It is assumed that new researchers will spend 5 days on research in the region and thus spend 3000 dkk and pay charges of 699 dkk. The socio-economic gain per new researcher in the region is 2199 dkk (Equivalent to 50% of 3000 dkk + 100% of 699 dkk). The existing researchers will spend 2 additional days and do not increase their consumption in excess of the 1200 dkk for the 2 stays on the route. The extra socio-economic gain per existing tourist in the region is 600 dkk (Equivalent to 50% of 1200 dkk). 5.5 Other Benefits There are several possible socio-economic gains on the nature road. Some of them depend on the quality of the road, for example, supplying Kangerlussuaq with special goods during the period, when the fjord is frozen, may be possibly go over the nature road. There could be test cars for the car test center in Kangerlussuaq. It could be moved to and from Kangerlussuaq.

3) The Danish original says here „Turistformer“, what obviously is a mistake. 21 In principle the nature road will not be usable for larger vehicles, but early in the winter, when not much snow has fallen in the western part, the combination of frozen soil and limited rain could make the entire nature road passable for larger vehicles. Likewise, in wintertime after a long period of frost and limited precipitation, it may be possible to drive on the winter trail from Sisimiut to approx. halfway, after which the nature road from half way and the rest of the road to Kangerlussuaq can be used. Other socio-economic benefits will be a greater opportunity for the defense to conduct international exercises with partners in the Arctic. In winter, the combination of nature roads and winter tracks will make it possible to travel by different routes and with different vehicles over far distances than at present. The nature road will also provide easier access to the study of minerals, hydropower potentials and road construction materials along the nature road. In particular, the last topic will eventually lead to a better knowledge and cheaper basis for a real road with a built-up road between Sisimiut and Kangerlussuaq. These other socio-economic gains have not been quantified. 6. SOCIOECONOMIC RESULTS The various socioeconomic expenses and gains are aggregated using a 30-year time horizon and a discount factor of 6%. Overall, the socio-economic analysis shows that the socio-economic gains are significantly higher than the socio-economic costs. The socio-economic gains can be calculated at a present value of 66.5 million dkk while socio- economic expenses can be estimated at a present value of 21.8 million dkk. Present value total 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 costs -21,8 -15,0 -15,5 -15,9 -16,3 -16,7 -17,1 -17,4 -17,8 benefits 66,5 0 1,4 4,0 7,5 10,9 14,2 17,3 20,4 There is a break-even after 7 years. In other words, the capital investment is 15 million dkk in 2017 js earned home in 2024, where the present value of the socio-economic gains exceeds the socio-economic costs. The internal interest rate on the investment is 22%. The present value of the socio-economic expenses can be divided by 15 million dkk on construction and 6.8 million dkk on the operation, while the present value of the socio-economic income can be distributed by 50.4 million dkk from tourism, 13.9 million dkk from living resources and 2.2 million dkk from research. Living Costs/ Benefits construction Operating costs Tourism research resources Mio, dkk -15,0 -6,8 50,4 13,9 2,2 It is the tourism sector that generates the positive result, as over 75% of the measurable gains can be attributed to tourists. Tourists are divided into different segments at different seasons, so the result seems robust.