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Responding to Climate Change in New York State

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Responding to Climate Change in New York State Chapter 7 Agriculture Authors: David W. Wolfe,1,2 Jonathan Comstock,2 Alan Lakso,2 Larry Chase,2 William Fry,2 Curt Petzoldt,2 Robin Leichenko,3 and Peter Vancura3 1 Sector Lead 2 Cornell University 3 Rutgers University, Department of Geography Contents Introduction....................................................................218 7.5 Equity and Environmental Justice Considerations ...233 7.1 Sector Description ...................................................218 7.6 Conclusions .............................................................234 7.1.1 Economic Value ..............................................218 7.6.1 Main Findings on Vulnerabilities and 7.1.2 Non-climate Stressors....................................219 Opportunities ................................................234 7.2 Climate Hazards.......................................................221 7.6.2 Adaptation Options ........................................236 7.2.1 Temperature....................................................221 7.6.3 Knowledge Gaps ............................................237 7.2.2 Precipitation....................................................221 Case Study A. Frost Damage to Grapes .......................237 7.2.3 Sea Level Rise ................................................222 Case Study B. Potato Late Blight ..................................239 7.2.4 Other Climate Factors ...................................222 Case Study C. Drought..................................................241 7.3 Vulnerabilities and Opportunities .............................222 Case Study D. Dairy Heat Stress...................................243 7.3.1 Increased Insect and Disease Pressure .........223 References.....................................................................250 7.3.2 Increased Weed Pressure...............................224 Appendix A. Stakeholder Interactions ...........................253 7.3.3 Too Little Water...............................................225 7.3.4 Too Much Water .............................................225 7.3.5 Issues of Concern for Key Industries .............225 7.4 Adaptation Strategies ..............................................227 7.4.1 On-Farm Adaptation for Dairy and Other Livestock........................................................228 7.4.2 On-Farm Adaptation for Crops.......................229 7.4.3 Adaptation Beyond the Farm: Institutions, Agencies, and Policy......................................231 7.4.4 Co-benefits, Unintended Consequences, and Opportunities ..........................................232 218 ClimAID Commodity 2007 Value 2007 Harvested National Introduction (1,000 dollars) Acres (1,000's) Rank 1 (cottage Agriculture is a significant component of the New York Dairy Products $2,377,987 N/A cheese) 3 (milk) economy that includes large wholesale grower-shippers 26 (poultry) Poultry, eggs 122,643 N/A selling products nationally and internationally, a 22 (eggs) substantial dairy industry, and thousands of small farm 2 (calves) Cattle, hogs, sheep 118,742 N/A operations selling direct retail and providing 6 (lambs sheep) communities throughout the state with local, fresh Other 107,927 produce. Farmers will be on the front lines of coping Total Livestock 2,727,299 with climate change, but the direct impacts on crops, Apples (fresh) 198,467 livestock, and pests, and the costs of farmer adaptation, Apples (processed) 50,432 will have cascading effects beyond the farm gate and Apples (Total) 286,000 42 2 Grapes (fresh) 3,600 throughout the state’s economy. While climate change Grapes (juice) 25,200* will create unprecedented challenges, there are likely Grapes (wine) 14,842 to be new opportunities as well, such as emerging Grapes (Total) 49,222 34 3 markets for new crop options that may come with a Tart cherries 4,369 1.7 4 longer growing season and warmer temperatures. Taking Sweet cherries 3,518 0.7 8 advantage of any opportunities and minimizing the Peaches 3,995 1.7 10 adverse consequences of climate change will require Pears 5,120 1.2 4 new decision tools for strategic adaptation. Adaptations Strawberries 7,590 1.5 7 will not be cost- or risk-free, and inequities in Blueberries 3,373 0.7 10 Red raspberries 5,723 0.45 N/A availability of capital or information for strategic Other fruits and nuts 4,440 adaptation may become an issue for some sectors of the Total Fruit Crops 373,350 84.25 agricultural economy. Cabbage (fresh) 101,190 12.6 2 Cabbage (kraut) 4,460 2.6 N/A Sweet corn (fresh) 72,600 27.5 4 Sweet corn (processed) 15,286 17.2* N/A 7.1 Sector Description Snap bean (fresh) 49,749 9.9 4 Snap bean (processed) 14,990 19.9* N/A Agriculture, as defined in the ClimAID report, Pumpkins (fresh) 22,694 6.4 4 includes livestock, dairy, and crop production, as well Onions (fresh) 94,182 12.3 5 Peas (processed) 9,033 17.4* N/A as the economically important flower cultivation, Beets (processed) 1,824 2.4 N/A nursery, and turf industries. The timber, maple syrup, Other 189,815 and fishing industries are not included here; they are Total Vegetable Crops 575,823 109.1 covered in Chapter 6 (“Ecosystems”) and/or Chapter Grain corn 300,355 550 22 5 (“Coastal Zones”). Silage corn 262,548 495 3 Potatoes (Total) 64,372 18.3 11 Soybeans 75,212 203 24 7.1.1 Economic Value Dry beans 8,557 16.5 12 Wheat 29,835 85 31 (winter wheat) Oats 7,866 60 8 The agriculture sector in New York State encompasses Hay (Total) 322,128 1,360 22 more than 34,000 farms that occupy about one-quarter Total Field Crops 1,070,873** 27695 of the state’s land area (more than 7.5 million acres) Floriculture 199,028 N/A 6 and contribute $4.5 billion annually to the state’s Nursery 63,343* N/A N/A economy. Table 7.1 summarizes some recent New York Other greenhouse 125,000 N/A N/A agriculture statistics (USDA, 2007). The annual value Total Other 357,661 of dairy products alone approached $2.4 billion in Total Livestock & Crops $4,454,294 (actual cash receipts) 2007. Hay value (primarily realized through sale of milk * 2006 data (2007 not available). ** Field crop total includes estimated values of silage, hay, and seed corn that and livestock) was $327 million, while New York was not sold but was used directly for animal and dairy production. ranked third nationally in grain silage production with Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service: www.nass.usda.gov/ny a value of $262 million. The vegetable industry Table 7.1 2007 NY agriculture value, harvested acres, and ranking Chapter 7 • Agriculture 219 contributed $648 million and the fruit industry more base resource for wind turbine development (Bennet than $368 million. and Balvanera, 2007). New York is the dominant agricultural state in the The economic value of the greenhouse/nursery industry Northeast and typically ranks within the top five in the is significant, with cash receipts exceeding $347 million United States for production of apples, grapes, fresh- in 2007. Data for turf were not available for 2007, but market sweet corn, snap beans, cabbage, milk, cottage an analysis of that industry conducted in 2003 by the cheese, and several other commodities. In addition to New York Agriculture Statistics Service found more many large-scale wholesale operations, small farms than 3.4 million acres of turf in the state (82 percent in throughout the state are vital to the economy of rural private residences); more than $5 billion was spent on areas and fill an important market niche for fresh, high- maintenance expenses for all turf sectors combined. quality, affordable local produce. About half of all New There were 8,148 “sod” acres devoted to the actual York farms have sales of less than $10,000 production of turf, employing 140 laborers with a payroll (www.nass.usda.gov/ny), while 18 percent have sales of $4.2 million and selling a total of 2,226 acres in 2003 exceeding $100,000. This 18 percent accounts for at a value of $14.9 million. about half of all land area occupied by farms (3.77 million acres). Regional Variation of the New York Agriculture The value of agriculture to the state goes beyond direct Economy farm revenue statistics. For example, a recent analysis of the value of the New York grape and wine industry, Agriculture is important throughout the state, including which included multipliers such as regional tourism and regions near urban centers such as Long Island adjacent supporting industries, estimated that the total economic to the New York City metropolitan area and the impact of this industry was more than $6 billion in 2004 counties near Rochester, Buffalo, Syracuse, and Albany. (MKF Research, 2005). Also, farm landscapes can be Farming near these urban centers has unique managed in a sustainable manner to provide important challenges, including educating the public about farm “ecosystem services” such as preservation of soil and operations, addressing human health concerns, and water resources, habitat to enhance biodiversity, carbon changing land values, tax structures, and land-use sequestration to mitigate climate change, and a land- restrictions. Overall, only a very small fraction of New York State voters are either farmers or directly involved in the agriculture industry. Dairy farms are located throughout the state and are the dominant component Receipts (million dollars) of the agricultural economy of many counties in the 800 northern, central, and southern regions (Figure 7.1). Crops 700 In some of these more rural regions, a large fraction of Livestock the total economy is affected by the fate of the dairy 600
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