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San Antonio Multifamily San Antonio’s Breezy Summer Multifamily Report Summer 2018 Rent Growth Tapers Transaction Volume Dwindles Construction Leads Job Growth SAN ANTONIO MULTIFAMILY Market Analysis Job Growth Fuels South Texas Summer 2018 On its 300th anniversary, San Antonio has a strong economy to show, Contacts with a thriving luxury multifamily market that’s creating opportunities Paul Fiorilla for investors looking to enter a stable market. The strong economic and Associate Director of Research population growth keep creating demand for housing, despite the recent [email protected] wave of supply that has tempered rent growth, up 1.1% year-over-year (800) 866-1124 x5764 through May to $1,002 and below the $1,381 U.S. average. Jack Kern Up by 10.1%, the mining, logging and construction sector led San Antonio’s Director of Research and Publications employment expansion in the 12 months ending in March with the addition [email protected] of 5,800 jobs. With nearly 8,000 rental units underway, development activity (800) 866-1124 x2444 in the multifamily sector will likely maintain this positive trend. Several other developments across the metro will boost the construction sector, with a Author number of projects lined up, as well: the 462,000-square-foot Frost Bank Anca Gagiuc Tower, the multi-phase Essex Modern City and the $320-million University Associate Editor Village mixed-use project near University of Texas at San Antonio. The multifamily transaction volume hit $427 million in 2018 through April. Most of the traded assets were in lower-rated classes, which influenced the per-unit price, resulting in a $2,000 slide to $101,428. With 6,700 units scheduled for completion by year’s end, we expect rents to rise 1.8% this year. Recent San Antonio Transactions The Flats at Big Tex Legacy Flats City: San Antonio City: San Antonio Buyer: The Accend Cos. Buyer: PEM Real Estate Group Purchase Price: $69 MM Purchase Price: $35 MM Price per Unit: $205,667 Price per Unit: $112,839 Monterra Whispering Creek Villas City: San Antonio City: San Antonio Buyer: Knightvest Capital Buyer: Hilltop Residential Purchase Price: $34 MM Purchase Price: $32 MM Price per Unit: $97,362 Price per Unit: $123,411 On the cover: Photo by Sean Pavone/iStockphoto.com 2 2010 2011 2010 2012 Transactions: Price Per Unit (San Antonio) 4.0% 2011 2013 $160,000 Transactions:$140,000 Price Per Unit (San Antonio) 3.5% 2012 2014 4.0% $120,000 $160,000 2013 2015 $100,000 3.0% $140,000 2014 $80,000 3.5% 2016 $120,000 $60,000 2015 2017 $100,000 2.5% $40,000 3.0% 2016 2018 $80,000 $60,000 2.0% 2017 2.5% $40,000 2018 1.5% 2010 2.0% 2011 2010 2012 1.5% Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (San Antonio) National 2011 2013 2012 2014 Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (San Antonio) National Supply: Percentage of Stock (San Antonio) 2013 San Antonio 2015 Sep-15 2014 2016 Supply: 4.0%Percentage of Stock (San Antonio) San Antonio 2015 2017 Sep-15 2016 2018 Dec-15 4.0% 2017 3.0% 2018 Dec-15 3.0% 2.0% Mar-16 2.0% Mar-16 1.0% Jun-16 1.0% 0.0% Jun-16 National Sep-16 0.0% National Sep-16 Supply: Development Pipeline as of May 2018 (San Antonio) Dec-16 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTDSan Antonio Supply: Development Pipeline as of May 2018 (San Antonio) Dec-16 Mar-17 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTDSan Antonio Mar-17 Jun-17 Rent Trends Jun-17 Sep-17 Rents in San Antonio rose 1.1% year-over-year through May, below the national growth rate of 2.0%. Sep-17 The average overall rent stood at $1,002, well below the national average of $1,381. The supply Dec-17 imbalance has not only resulted in a softened rate of rent growth but also contributed toNational falling occupancy, which dropped 130 basis points year-over-year through April at 92.3%, the lowest among Dec-17 Mar-18 major metros. National Transactions: Total Volume (San Antonio) 7,997 Units Assets in the working-class Renter-by-Necessity segment led growth, rising 1.5% to $841, while rates San Antonio Mar-18 $1,400 for LifestyleTransactions: assets Total Volumeinched (San upAntonio) 0.3% to $1,199. Elevated multifamily7,997 construction Units has also influenced payrolls, especially$1,200 in the construction sector, boosting household formation. San Antonio $1,400 $1,000 The number$1,200 of submarkets experiencing rent dips has dropped to eight,8,343 the Units steepest decrease coming 11,613 Units in Selma, down$800 5.8% to $1,013. At $655, West Side wasPlanned the least expensive submarket, due to its $1,000 inventory being mostly made up of affordable communities. Rent growth8,343 Units there was 4.3% year-over- $600 11,613 Units year. The metro’s most expensive submarkets remainPlanned Southtown/King William, up 1.0% to $1,443, and $800 Beckmann, down$400 0.3% to $1,395. $600 Prospective $200 Population growth$400 and the metro’s solid economy should propel rent growth to 1.8% for the year. Prospective $200 $0 San Antonio vs. National Rent Growth Under Construction $0 Rent: YoY vs National (San Antonio) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Under Construction 2018 Rent: YoY5.0% vs National (San Antonio) 4.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% Volume in Millions 1.0% 0.0% Volume in Millions Source: YardiMatrix (Sequential 3 Month, Year-Over-Year) San AntonioRent: Lifestyle Rent vs RBN Growth (San Antonio) by Asset Class Number of Properties Rent: Lifestyle4.0% vs RBN (San Antonio) 3.0% Number of Properties 4.0% 100 2.0% 3.0% 80 1.0% 100 2.0% 0.0% 60 80 1.0% -1.0% 40 0.0% 60 -1.0% 20 National 40 0 20 National Source: YardiMatrix 0 San Antonio (Sequential 3 Month, Year-Over-Year) San Antonio Lifestyle Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Renter-by-Necessity San Antonio Multifamily | Summer 2018 3 Economic Snapshot San Antonio added 18,800 jobs in the 12 months ending in March, up 2.1% year-over-year, above the 1.7% U.S. rate. Growth occurred across most industries, except the information sector, which contracted by 600 jobs. The metro’s unemployment rate was 3.1% in April, well below average. Mining, logging and construction led growth with the addition of 5,800 jobs, followed by the trade, transportation and utilities sector, which added 3,800 jobs. The strong development pipeline will maintain this trend: The Frost Bank Tower is about two-thirds complete and on schedule to open early next year, while the multi-phase, $150Transactions: million Price Essex Per Unit Modern (San Antonio) City mixed-use development is currently underway. Additionally, the 1,900-acre$160,000 Port San Antonio plans to hire 5,000 people by 2020 and has already begun to do so: In late May, the$140,000 first facility at the newly built 90,000-square-foot Project Tech $120,000 was inaugurated and will serve the cybersecurity$100,000 and other digital industries. $80,000 $60,000 Organizations are expanding in the metro, pushing office vacancy rates to 9.8%, up 10 basis points $40,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 year-over-year. Net absorption remained positive1 1 at 18,5951 square1 feet, according to NAI, and leasing 01 01 01 20 20 2 201 20 2 2 201 20 activity dropped to 365,000 square feet from 870,000 a year ago. There was 1.2 million square feet of National San Antonio space underway, with 665,000 square feet scheduled for delivery by year’s end. The 462,000-square- 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 foot Frost1 Bank1 Tower is set to be completed in the first quarter of 2019. 01 01 01 01 01 01 2 20 2 20 2 201 2 2 2 San Antonio vs. National Employment Growth (Year-Over-Year) Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (San Antonio) 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 5 6 6 6 7 7 -15 1 -1 17 1 -17 18 p-1 c r- c r- p- c r- e e a e a e e a S D M Jun-1 Sep-16 D M Jun-1 S D M National San Antonio Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics (not seasonally adjusted) Supply: Percentage of Stock (San Antonio) San 4.0%Antonio Employment Growth by Sector (Year-Over-Year) Current Employment Year Change 3.0% Code Employment Sector (000) % Share Employment % 15 Mining, Logging and Construction 64 6.1% 5,800 10.1% 2.0% 40 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 183 17.4% 3,800 2.1% 70 Leisure and Hospitality 135 12.9% 2,900 2.2% 1.0% 60 Professional and Business Services 135 12.9% 2,100 1.6% 65 Education and Health Services 163 15.5% 1,900 1.2% 0.0% 30 Manufacturing2010 2011 2012 201349 2014 20154.7% 2016 2017 1,000 2018 YTD 2.1% 90 Government National 174San Antonio 16.6% 1,000 0.6% 80 Other Services 38 3.6% 900 2.4% Supply:55 DevelopmentFinancial Pipeline Activities as of May 2018 (San Antonio) 89 8.5% - 0.0% 50 Information 20 1.9% -600 -2.9% Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics 7,997 Units 11,613 Units San Antonio Multifamily | Summer 2018 4 8,343 Units Planned Prospective Under Construction Transactions: Total Volume (San Antonio) $1,400 100 $1,200 80 $1,000 $800 60 $600 40 $400 20 $200 $0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Volume in Millions Number of Properties Rent: YoY vs National (San Antonio) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% National San Antonio Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (San Antonio) 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Demographics Affordability San Antonio’s strong economy has held onto a strong growth rate, putting more pressure on demand for workforce housing.
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