Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook Western Region September 2016

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Quarterly Climate Impacts Western Region and Outlook September 2016

Significant Events for June - August 2016 Jun-Aug Highlights for the West Record or near record warmth across southern portions of CA, NV, AZ CA statewide warmest summer on record Bottom-10 driest summer for much of WY, southwest MT, southern ID, northeast UT Below normal summer streamflow in much of Inland Northwest, Pacific Northwest Some drought improvement in AZ, NM this summer with active monsoon during June, August NCDC // www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national Warm water species found in S. CA coastal waters for 3rd consecutive year due to above normal ocean temperatures ENSO-neutral conditions slightly favored to continue into autumn and winter

Regional Overview for June - August 2016

Mean Temperature Percentile Precipitation Percentile U.S. Drought Monitor Jun-Aug 2016 Jun-Aug 2016 Aug. 30, 2016 WRCC // www.wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt/ WRCC D0: Abnormally dry D3: Extreme drought D1: Moderate drought D4: Exceptional drought D2 Severe drought droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ Above normal summer temperatures were Large areas of the West had a drier than At the end of summer, 35% of the West was observed in most locations across the normal summer; however, excepting the experiencing drought conditions. Large West, with the greatest departures from Southwest and areas east of the Rockies, areas of increasing drought severity or normal in the Southwest. Several locations summer is typically the driest part of the abnormally dry conditions were introduced in southeastern CA and western NV had year. A large area centered on the ID-UT- in northeast OR, ID, western and southern their warmest summer on record, including WY border experienced one of its driest MT, northern WY and northeast UT. Las Vegas, NV, where average temperature summers on record; Idaho Falls set a Early snow melt contributed to the low was 93.1 F, 3.2 F above normal. Heat record for driest summer, receiving only summertime streamflows and drought waves in the desert Southwest in early 0.33 in, 15% of normal. Many areas of CA impacts observed in the area. Given that and late June contributed to above normal and northern Nevada received little to no summer is typically dry in CA, only minor temperatures. Passing disturbances kept precipitation this summer, not uncommon changes were made to small areas and the Northwest cooler than normal in July. for the region. An active monsoon 84% of the state remains in drought. Areas In August, thunderstorms helped keep circulation in June and August brought near of drought improvement were observed this temperatures slightly cooler than normal in to slightly above normal precipitation to AZ, summer in southern parts of AZ and NM Southwest and Rocky Mountain states. NM, and southern CO, UT, NV. and also in west-central NV.

Contacts: Kelly Redmond ([email protected]) Western Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | Sept 2016 Alicia Marrs ([email protected]) http://drought.gov/drought/resources/reports Prepared by Nina Oakley, WRCC ([email protected]) Regional Impacts for June-August 2016 Drought, Flooding and Water Resources Active Fire Season in California 85% of CA water districts say they have adequate supplies to Though the summer handle 3 more years of drought fire season was not Lake Mead outlook adequate to meet 2017 needs; however, particularly active across AZ, NV may see first cuts in 2018 the US (number of fires 76% of normal; acres Fisheries burned 83% of normal), West Coast ocean salmon fisheries featured less fishing CA experienced a large NASA VIIRS opportunity and lower quota levels in 2016 than recent years number of destructive fires, image of fires due to relatively low abundance forecasts for several stocks owing in part to the ongoing in central CA High water temperatures, low streamflow contributed to fish drought. Early this summer, Aug 24 2016 kill on Yellowstone R. in MT resulting in >100 mi river closure fuels in CA were showing Forests and Agriculture dryness usually observed in October. Periods of hot 66 million trees now dead in CA since 2010 due to drought windy weather combined and beetle kill (up from 29 million in 2015) with dry fuels made for Sand Fire Drought cost CA farmers an estimated $603M in 2016 to date, hazardous fire conditions. an improvement from $2.7B in 2015 approaching home In 2016, CA had more fires in southern CA Dryland harvest down 30-50% in MT- with low wheat prices, and acres burned than in Helicopter battles image: rising hay prices, farmers opting to bale wheat for animal feed each of the the previous 5 Sand Fire Fire years. CAL FIRE alone Jul 25 2016 Doghead Fire in central NM burned 18k acres, 24 homes spent roughly $165M battling blazes this year. Some notable fires in CA this summer: Erskine Fire- most destructive of season, 48k Roaring Lion fire in western MT burned >8k acres, 16 homes acres, 285 homes destroyed. Soberanes Fire- 95k acres burned in High winds, dry conditions on Aug 21 caused outbreak of Jul-Aug, 57 homes destroyed. Blue Cut Fire- 37k acres, 105 homes several fires near Spokane, WA that burned >3k acres, destroyed. Sand Fire- 41k acres, 18 homes destroyed. Chimney destroyed multiple homes Fire- 45k acres, 49 homes destroyed.

Regional Outlook for Oct-Nov-Dec 2016

A indicates above normal Western Region Partners B indicates below normal Western Regional Climate Center N indicates normal wrcc.dri.edu EC means equal chances for A, N or B National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) - drought.gov Numbers indicate percent Western Governors’ Association chance of temperature in warmest one-third and westgov.org of precipitation in wettest Western States Water Council one-third westgov.org/wswc CPC// www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division esrl.noaa.gov/psd Oct-Nov-Dec temperature outlook Oct-Nov-Dec precipitation outlook produced by CPC Sept 15 2016 produced by CPC Sept 15 2016 NOAA Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov NOAA CPC Oct-Dec Seasonal Outlook National Centers for Envir. Info. (NCEI) There is a 33-50% chance of temperatures in the upper tercile (well above normal) across www.ncdc.noaa.gov the West for Oct-Dec, with greatest likelihood in NM and the 4-Corners region (60%). USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate There is a 33-40% chance of upper tercile precipitation across MT, northern ID and equal Center - www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov chances of normal, above normal, and below normal precipitation elsewhere in the West. National Interagency Fire Center www.nifc.gov NMME Model Forecasts (Sept 2016) 2 NOAA’s Western Regional

El Niño Experimental Collaboration Team threshold 1 forecast of www.regions.noaa.gov/western/western_ 95% of forecasts precipitation region_team.html anomaly for 68% of forecasts Oct-Dec 2016. Western Water Assessment 0 average of all 107 Produced by wwa.colorado.edu model forecasts CPC Sept 2016. Climate Assessment for the Southwest -1 climas.arizona.edu Nino3.4 SST Anomaly (degC) Nino3.4 SST La Niña CPC // www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov California Nevada Applications Program threshold meteora.ucsd.edu/cnap -2 NOAA climate.gov Aug Sept SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ 40% 50 60 70 40% 50 60 70 40% 50 60 70 Climate Impacts Research Consortium Above Below Neutral pnwclimate.org/resources NOAA// climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/ NOAA// NMME ENSO Outlook NMME Precipitation Forecast NWS River Forecast Centers Models suggest ENSO-neutral conditions The National Multi-Model Ensemble water.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php are slightly favored over La Niña combines 7 climate research models. The NOAA Fisheries Service conditions for the upcoming fall/winter NMME suggests a chance of precipitation www.nmfs.noaa.gov/ season. However, this is an early outlook being above normal across UT and in NWS Western Region Forecast Offices and conditions may change as cool central MT, with equal chances of above, www.wrh.noaa.gov/ season progresses. below normal or neutral elsewhere. State Climatologists - stateclimate.org Contacts: Kelly Redmond ([email protected]) Western Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | Sept 2016 Alicia Marrs ([email protected]) http://drought.gov/drought/resources/reports Prepared by Nina Oakley, WRCC ([email protected])