IRMO Institut za razvoj i međunarodne odnose Institute for Development and International Relations I R M O Ured u Zagrebu B R E F 02 2021 I Montenegro after the General Elections: A New Chapter in Transition or Preservation of Status Quo? By Krševan Antun Dujmović Introduction with the European Union, making it a harbinger among Western Balkans nations on the path The general elections held in Montenegro to Euro-Atlantic integrations, especially as the on 30 August 2020 has once again drawn the country had joined the North Atlantic Alliance attention of the Western Balkans to the smallest, in June 2017. Other countries in the region measured by population, among seven nations linger behind Montenegro – Albania and North that emerged after the breakup of the Socialist Macedonia, both NATO members, are still Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. This attention waiting for the opening of the negotiations with is due to a number of factors. Back in May of the EU. Serbia has no intention to join NATO, 2018 Montenegro has opened the last of the and in spite of EU negotiations and ambitions, thirty-three chapters in the negotiation process sees itself in balance between the West on one IRMO BRIEF 02/2021 1 side, and Russia and China on the other. Kosovo the geopolitical chessboard. Considering these and Bosnia and Herzegovina are far from NATO factors, the attention of neighbors to the events membership and have merely the status of in this Balkan country is understandable. The potential candidates for EU membership. This unfolding situation after the elections in which is why all eyes of the region and of the advocates the government of Montenegro is backed by a of continuation of EU enragement policy are very thin majority in the Parliament (Skupština on Montenegro. The second factor are strong Crne Gore) and with no clear vision nor strategy historical ties of this country on the Adriatic for further political and economic development coast with its northern neighbor Serbia. Serbian of the country, is only fueling the wariness of its minority makes up to one third of Montenegro’s neighbors and of Brussels about Montenegro as population, and the Serbian Orthodox Church a success story. (SPC- Srpska Pravoslavna Crkva) plays a vital role in Montenegrin society, as this country Thorny transition in Montenegro does not have its own autocephalous Church recognized by other Orthodox Churches in Until the 30 August general election Eastern Christendom. This gives Serbia and Montenegro was ruled in continuum by the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro its southern neighbor. The third factor is the the SPC a significant clout within borders of (DPS - Demokratska partija socijalista Crne involvement of global players in this country. Gore), a party formed as a legal successor of The United Sates has advocated strongly to the Communists Party of Montenegro. For this include Montenegro in NATO in order to stretch reason many point out that Montenegro was ruled for 75 years by the same communist or Mediterranean from the Iberian Peninsula to the line of NATO’s southern flank in the Northern reformed-communist political elite and the that the west to Greece and Turkey in the east. On the other hand, Montenegro’s authorities accused formal transition, while the old structures from Russia of meddling in the general elections held the country went only through a superficial, the communist past remained to be in power in October 2016 when the alleged coup d’état occurred on the election day. Many feared a and pro-EU image of the DPS. Furthermore, similar scenario on the eve of 30 August 2020 only camouflaged under the new pro-Western election, fathoming the outbreak of riots and president of Montenegro to the present day. violence that could ignite the powder keg in the president of the DPS Milo Đukanović is the the Balkans. Although none of these happened, now serving his second presidential term, Montenegro is not ceasing to be the subject of Đukanović was elected as president in 2018, and since 1991 he also served four terms as IRMO BRIEF 02/2021 2 prime minister of Montenegro. For this reason, curb organized crime. Powerful drug cartels the sluggish transition in Montenegro was for based in Montenegro’s Bay of Kotor can trace their origins to the cigarette trafficking in the nineties when Montenegro and Serbia formed many embodied in the very political figure of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Pressed Milo Đukanović. Montenegro was ruled for 75 by a considerable and influential Serbian years by the same communist or minority in the country, the DPS ruled by reformed-communist political the adequate balance of power in running elite and went only through a Milo Đukanović was always forced to create the country. Well-know and traditional superficial, formal transition. Montenegrin opportunism also took its toll. Regardless of the country’s proclaimed pro- Western orientation, Montenegro continued non-disputable, however it is his adamant Đukanović’s political longevity and talent are to nourish its strong and historical links with persistence to embody the highest political Russia. power in Montenegro that has enticed very different political parties in Montenegro Regardless of the country’s in joining forces before and during the 30 proclaimed pro-Western orientation, August elections - in order to topple the rule Montenegro continued to nourish its strong and historical links with of Đukanović and the DPS. On the other hand, to its independence in the 2006 referendum Russia. Đukanović’s determination to lead Montenegro and the Euro-Atlantic integration is beyond dispute. However, his critics claim that these This was made evident in 2011 when the ambitions were purely pragmatic and not an DPS and Putin’s United Russia party signed an agreement on cooperation. Furthermore, Russian capital has sprawled around the expression of genuine beliefs, as Đukanović’s until 1997. And in spite of Montenegro’s country, Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska was was the closest ally of Slobodan Milošević success to be the champion of EU integration involved in the privatization of the aluminum among six countries of the Western Balkans, smelter near the capital Podgorica and many this progress is marred by many failures. The Russian nationals settled in the country. For country is regularly criticized by the European all these reasons Montenegro has fallen short Commission due to its frail efforts to tackle in its attempts to become “Monte Carlo of nepotism, omnipresent corruption and to the Balkans’’, embroiling itself in a strain of IRMO BRIEF 02/2021 3 corruption scandals and distancing itself from The lities were guided by the SPC, namely the structural reforms and genuine transition on leader of the Orthodox Church in Montenegro, the path to EU membership. Archbishop of Cetinje and Metropolitan Law on Religion as a trigger of change of Montenegro and the Littoral Amfilohije Radović. After decades of close friendship and At the very beginning of 2020 things looked alliance with Milo Đukanović, top cleric of the after the 30 August general election due to the stable for the DPS as the ruling elite was SPC Radović, who passed away just two months consequences of Covid-19 infection, turned bracing itself for yet another victory on general into a bitter adversary of the Montenegrin elections. Notwithstanding, the situation had president. The stumbling stone of the Law changed dramatically with the adoption of the were articles 61, 62 and 63 in the Law totaling “Law on Freedom of Religion or Belief and Legal 66 articles, and especially the provision saying Status of Religious Communities”. The Law was that “religious buildings and land used by adopted on 27 December 2019 in Montenegrin the religious communities in the territory of Parliament, and came into force a day after Montenegro which were built or obtained from Christmas that is observed in Montenegro on public revenues of the state or were owned by 7 January. In spite of government’s intention the state until 1 December 1918, and for which to pass the bill into law smoothly, the adoption there is no evidence of ownership by the of the Law stirred strife in the Parliament, and religious communities, as cultural heritage of soon after its adoption protests broke out in Montenegro, shall constitute state property.” almost every city in Montenegro. The protests The SPC interpreted these articles of the Law as where organized in Orthodox processions called an attack and an attempt to seize its properties lities (litije), and every week tens of thousands from it on different locations of Montenegro. of protestors took to the street, in a nation of As the presence of the Orthodox Church in just 630 thousand inhabitants. Montenegro dates back to medieval times, many of documents proving the ownership were lost The protests where organized in during the Ottoman rule as the Ottoman Turks Orthodox processions called lities frequently targeted Orthodox monasteries as (litije), and every week tens of centers of Montenegrin rebellion against their thousands of protestors took to rule. Among these properties that are in the the street. Motenegrin monasteries Cetinje, Ostrog and SPC’s possession are, among others, flagship IRMO BRIEF 02/2021 4 Opposition wins by a narrow margin near the coastal city of Petrovac, ideal for Morača, and a parcel of land in Buljarica The 30 August general elections have caught the DPS on the wrong foot, and the opposition development of tourist projects. Amfilohije task in mobilizing protestors in January 2020 parties managed to win 41 seats in the 81 Radović and the SPC did not face a difficult as Orthodoxy is deeply rooted in Montenegrin members Parliament. Even so, the DPS has nation which for centuries lived in theocratic remained the party with the strongest support society, ruled by leaders called “vladika”, who of the voters, winning over 35% of the popular embodied at the same time both spiritual and votes.