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Vehicle Industry Review and Outlook Alixpartners Proprietary

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Vehicle Industry Review and Outlook Alixpartners Proprietary Vehicle Industry Review and Outlook AlixPartners Proprietary Agenda State of the Industry (OEMs/suppliers) Troubled Suppliers Globalization/China Quality/Warranty Entry level segment Summary 2 AlixPartners Proprietary AlixPartners - Introduction 3 AlixPartners Proprietary AlixPartners Has Worked With Vehicle Manufacturers and Suppliers Globally AZ Automotive Corp. 4 AlixPartners Proprietary AlixPartners Offers Three Key Differentiators Experienced staff, with practical, real-world experience Small Senior Teams Small Senior Teams Significant senior leadership time High company ownership Components of compensation based on results AlignedAligned IncentivesIncentives Results are driven to the bottom line Success is definitive and measurable Experienced implementers ProvenProven ResultsResults Culture and approach built on speed and urgency Results focus—not reports 5 AlixPartners Proprietary The 2006 AlixPartners Automotive Benchmarking Survey Includes 104 Suppliers, 22 Auto and 18 Heavy Truck OEMs Ford, General BMW, DaimlerChrysler, Fiat, Chongqing Changan, Dongfeng, Fuji, Honda, Motors Peugeot, Porsche, Renault, Hyundai, Isuzu, KIA, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Volkswagen Nissan, Shanghai Automotive, Suzuki, Toyota Caterpillar, Deere, Navistar, CNH, Man AG, Scania, Volvo Ashok Leyland, Changchun Faw-Sihuan, Hino Oshkosh Truck, Paccar Motors, Inner Mongolia North Hauler, Komatsu, Mahindra & Mahindra, Mitsubishi Heavy, Tata, Yangzhou Yaxing AmericasAmericas EuropeEurope AsiaAsia American Axle, ArvinMeritor, Autoliv, Bosch Automotive, Brembo, Ahresty, Aisin Seiki, Akebono Brake, Alps Electric, BorgWarner, Cooper Tire & Rubber, Carraro, Continental, Delachaux, Asahi Tec, Automobile Foundry, Bridgestone, Dana, Desc, Dura, Eaton, Federal-Mogul, Elringklinger, Faurecia, First Calsonic Kansei, Chasys, Denso, Dongyang Gentex, Goodyear, Hayes Lemmerz, Technology, Fischer, GKN, Grammer, Mechatronics, Exedy, Fuji Kiko, Fuji Univance, Johnson Controls, Lear, Linamar, Magna, Haldex, Kolbenschmidt Pierburg, Le Futaba, Hongo, HWA Shin, Jeco, Jtekt (Koyo Metaldyne, Sanluis, Shiloh, Standard Belier, Mahle-Metal Leve, MGI Coutier, Seiko), Kayaba Industry, Keihin, Kikuchi, Kinugawa Motor, Stoneridge, Strattec Security, Miba, Michelin, Montupet, Plastic Rubber Industrial, Koito Manufacturing, Korea Superior, Teleflex, Tenneco Automotive, Omnium, Rieter, Sogefi, Tomkins, Flange, Mikuni, Mitsuba, NHK Spring, Nidec Tosok, Titan, TRW, Visteon, Wiest Trelleborg, Valeo, Wagon Nippon Cable, Nippon Piston Ring, Nippon Seiki, Nishikawa Rubber, Nissin Kogyo, Pacific Industrial, Pacifica Group, Press Kogyo, Riken, Shiroki, Showa, T Rad, Tachi-S, Taiho Kogyo, Tokai Rika, Tokico, Toyo Tire & Rubber, Toyoda Gosei, Toyota Boshoku, Yorozu Note: Companies reporting FY 2005 Bloomberg data 6 AlixPartners Proprietary State of the industry – OEMs and Suppliers 7 AlixPartners Proprietary Both American OEMs and Suppliers Have Fallen Behind in the Past Decade in Terms of Profitability and Growth Aggregate 2-Yr Sales CAGR vs. ROCE (%) 12 1996 vs. 2005 ¾ Small figures = 1996; Big = 2005 ¾ Solid Lines = OEMs; 10 Dashed = Suppliers; 8 ) 6 4 ROCE (% 2 0 -2 0 5 10 15 20 2-Yr Sales CAGR (%) Americas Europe Asia Notes: ROCE calculated as industry aggregate; Data sets for 1996 and 2005 adjusted to reflect company data available in both respective time periods to calculate 2- Yr Sales CAGR (I.e., 1994 to 1996, 2003 to 2005 growth) Sources: Bloomberg, AlixPartners analysis 8 AlixPartners Proprietary Future NA Production Gains Are Expected Mainly From Asian OEMs As GM and Ford Continue to Reduce Capacity North America Manufacturer Average Annual Production Growth 2002-20101 Toyota Group 6.2% (62% ↑) Nissan 6.1% BMW Group 4.3% Hyundai Group 2.6% Honda Group 2.2% DaimlerChrysler 1.6% Volkswagen Group 0.4% General Motors -0.7% Ford Group -1.7% Mitsubishi (30% ↓) -4.4% -10% 0% 10% Percent Change 1. Based on 2010 Production Estimate of 17.6MM vehicles) Source: J.D. Power-LMC Automotive Forecasting Services 9 AlixPartners Proprietary Chinese and American OEMs Struggled To Create Shareholder Value Between 2003 and 2005 OEM CAGR in Market Capitalization Year-end 2003–2005 in USD (%)(1) 190% 163% Americas 140% Europe Asia 90% 67% 47% 40% 37% 40% 28% 28% 24% 23% 22% 20% 18% 9% 5% 4% -1% -2% -10% -30%-32% -40%-43%-44% -60% Kia GM Fuji Fiat Ford Isuzu BMW Honda Mazda Toyota Suzuki Nissan Renault Hyundai Porsche Peugeot Dongfeng Chongqing Volkswagen DaimlerChrysler Mitsubishi Motors Mitsubishi Shanghai Automotive (1) Excluding dividends Sources: Bloomberg; AlixPartners analysis 10 AlixPartners Proprietary 21 Out of Top 25 Suppliers As Measured By Two-year US Dollar Value Creation Are Asian… Top 25 Suppliers—CAGR in Market Capitalization Year-End 2003–2005 (%)(1) 292 200 182 180 Americas 160 160 Europe 140 128 Asia 121 120 % 100 90 85 81 80 78 77 80 75 74 73 73 72 70 70 69 66 65 62 61 59 59 60 40 20 0 Miba Koito Asahi Shiloh Wagon Yorozu Kikuchi Tachi-S Chasys Ahresty Mitsuba Tenneco Fuji KikoFuji Hwa Shin Tokai RikaTokai Continental Nidec Tosok Nidec Nippon SeikiNippon Press Kogyo Press Fuji Univance Fuji Akebono Brake Toyota BoshokuToyota Titan International Titan Automobile Foundry JTEKT (Koyo Seiko) (1) Excluding dividends Sources: Bloomberg; AlixPartners analysis 11 AlixPartners Proprietary …15 Of the Bottom 25 Suppliers As Measured By Two-year US Dollar Value Creation Are American. Bottom 25 Suppliers—CAGR in Market Capitalization Year-End 2003–2005 (%)(1) Americas 20 Europe 8 3 3 Asia 2 2 1 1 0 -1 0 -5 -6 -6 -8 -15 -21 -21 -20 -23 -28 -32 -33 % -35 -37 -37 -40 -58 -60 Lear Dura GKN Dana Valeo Autoliv Magna Gentex Sanluis Visteon Brembo Linamar Superior Tomkins Faurecia Grammer Stoneridge -80 ArvinMeritor Toyoda Gosei Toyoda American Axle American Group Pacifica Standard Motor Strattec Security Strattec ooper Tire & Rubber C (1) Excluding dividends Sources: Bloomberg; AlixPartners analysis 12 AlixPartners Proprietary European And Asian Suppliers Continue To Invest More In R&D 2005 Top 20 Suppliers R&D/Rev (%) 1 Yr Pt Chg Supplier Median(1) Denso 8.5 0.1 R&D as % of Sales Akebono Brake 7.2 0.7 6 Valeo 6.7 0.5 Alps Electric 6.6 0.5 Gentex 6.5 0.4 5 Autoliv 6.2 0.2 Stoneridge 5.8 0.5 Toyoda Gosei 5.6 (0.1) 4 Koito 5.3 (0.4) Grammer 5.3 n/a Tokai Rika 5.2 0.1 Aisin Seiki 5.2 (0.3) 3 Elringkinger 5.1 0.1 Kolbenschmidt 5.1 0.1 Visteon 4.7 (0.1) 2 Rieter 4.6 0.1 Nissin Kogyo 4.3 (0.1) Haldex 4.3 (0.1) 1 Continental 4.3 0.1 5 04 T Rad 3.8 (0.2) 002 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2 2003 20 2005 Median All Companies 3.5 (0.1) Americas Europe Asia Top 25% of Companies 5.8 0.1 Middle 50% of Companies 3.4 (0.2) Note: Incomplete data for Asia ‘95–’99 Bottom 25% of Companies 1.9 0.1 (1) Including suppliers with R&D Expense > $20 million annually Sources: Bloomberg; AlixPartners analysis 13 AlixPartners Proprietary Suppliers at risk 14 AlixPartners Proprietary In a highly competitive market, automotive suppliers profitability has decreased Forces of Market Price Pressure 4Industry: Constant price pressure with annual price give-backs reaching. 3-4% on avg. 4In 2004/2005, specific price pressure through OEMs “in trouble” like GM/Opel, DCX, VW Supply Demand* 4Raw material prices Tough Competition 4 Stagnating markets in dramatically went up in NAFTA, Western Europe, 2004/5, e.g. iron ore +70%, 4Severe margin pressure especially for Japan since 2002 raw material intensive manufacturers steel sheets +50%, 4 CAGR world 05/10: 2,2% stainless +26%, copper like body/ chassis suppliers +25%, plastics +38%, oil 4 Boom 2005-2010 in China 4Number of „big names“ went into chapter +33% (+7,7% p.a.), East Europe 11 (Delphi, Federal Mogul, Dana) (+7,7%), India (+6,1%) 4Limited chance to pass through price increase to 4 W. Europe (+0,8%) and OEM’s NAFTA (+1,1%) will further stagnate * Measured in production units 15 AlixPartners Proprietary After a Lull in 2003, Auto Supplier Bankruptcies Have Increased North American Automotive Bankruptcies with Assets >$100 Million YearYear CompanyCompany –– Sales Sales $M$M (Year)(Year) CurrentCurrent StatusStatus Ch.Ch. 1111 Federal-MogulFederal-Mogul -- $5,457 $5,457 (2001)(2001) 20012001 ExpectsExpects toto emergeemerge fromfrom bankruptcybankruptcy laterlater thisthis yearyear ANCANC RentalRental -- $3,163 $3,163 (2001)(2001) 20012001 AlamoAlamo andand NationalNational acquiredacquired byby CerCerberusberus inin OctoberOctober 20032003 forfor $2.4$2.4 billion billion HayesHayes LemmerzLemmerz -- $2,171 $2,171 (2001)(2001) 20012001 EmergedEmerged inin JuneJune 20032003 withwith 37%37% ownedowned byby JosephJoseph LittlejohnLittlejohn LevyLevy HarvardHarvard IndustriesIndustries -- $330 $330 (2000)(2000) 20022002 LiquidatedLiquidated inin 20022002 afterafter fourfour bankruptciesbankruptcies inin 2525 yearsyears ExideExide TechnologiesTechnologies -- $2,429 $2,429 (2002)(2002) 20022002 EmergedEmerged inin MayMay 2004;2004; reducedreduced debtdebt byby 70%70% DaewooDaewoo MotorsMotors -- $3,500 $3,500 (2002E)(2002E) 20022002 MajorityMajority ofof globalglobal operationsoperations acquiredacquired byby GMGM BudgetBudget GroupGroup -- $2,161 $2,161 (2001)(2001) 20022002 AcquiredAcquired byby CendantCendant inin NovemberNovember 20022002 forfor overover $500$500 millionmillion VentureVenture HoldingsHoldings -- $1,700 $1,700 (2002E)(2002E) 20032003 AcquiredAcquired byby creditorscreditors andand renamedrenamed CadenceCadence InnovationsInnovations CitationCitation Corp.Corp. -- $650 $650 (2003)(2003) 20042004 EmergedEmerged fromfrom ChapterChapter 1111 MayMay 20052005 IntermetIntermet
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