T. ROWE PRICE INSIGHTS ON GLOBAL ECONOMICS Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Revolutionize Banking CBDCs should boost financial inclusion and improve efficiency. May 2021 KEY INSIGHTS ■ Central banks across the world are exploring the introduction of digital currencies to address long‑standing issues with the fiat money system. Tomasz Wieladek ■ In advanced economies, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will likely have International Economist a revolutionary impact on the payment system by potentially fostering greater financial resilience, promoting efficiency, and reducing costs. ■ In emerging markets, greater financial inclusion through CBDCs may help mitigate business cycle volatility and reduce interest rate risk premia. Aadish Kumar International Economist rivate sector cryptocurrencies— In this first article in a series, we discuss digital assets used as a medium the technology behind cryptocurrencies Pof exchange—have received a and explore the economic consequences lot of public attention in recent years. of this monetary evolution. Now, central banks across the world are exploring the introduction of central bank Long-Standing Problems Solved digital currencies (CBDCs) to address With New Technology long‑standing issues with the fiat money Fiat money has three main economic system1 and to boost financial inclusion. purposes: first, to facilitate economic transactions by providing a universal If widely adopted, CBDCs will likely lead means of exchange; second, to store the to structural changes in the way that value of savings; and third, to provide a individuals and businesses access the unit of account for all goods and services banking system, potentially improving in the economy. The money provided financial resilience and reducing by central banks and facilitated by business cycle volatility. These changes commercial banks into the wider economy would have investment implications, already fulfills these purposes well, as had particularly in emerging markets, which been the case for most of the 20th century. should benefit most from the introduction of CBDCs. The differing pace of CBDC There are several flaws with the current implementation, and the potential system, however. One is that the benefits for each economy, could also fast retail payment system in most create relative value opportunities. advanced economies involves temporary 1 A government‑issued currency that is not backed by an asset. 1 counterparty risks. Another is that of central banking, direct access to the payment system inefficiencies can lead central bank’s balance sheet can likely to retail banks charging excessively high support greater financial inclusion and fees for clearing payments. A third flaw make a significant contribution to greater in the current system is that individual payment system stability. citizens and businesses can be financially excluded because a retail bank account We believe that major private sector is necessary to participate in the system. currencies like bitcoin or Ethereum By adopting CBDCs, central banks hope are not useful for these purposes as that these long‑standing issues can finally their high price volatility makes them be addressed. less suitable as a means of exchange. However, asset‑backed currencies A CBDC is a digital form of money such as stablecoins, some of which issued by the central bank denominated are directly anchored to fiat currencies in the national unit of account and has and therefore should be stable in value, the same underlying value as existing satisfy the medium of exchange and fiat money. Like fiat money, it is a store of value definition of money. If liability on the central bank’s balance stablecoins become a widely accepted sheet and can be used as a medium of medium for transactions, this will exchange and store of value. However, effectively lead to private sector unlike fiat money, a CBDC can utilize competition for the central bank’s distributed ledger technology (DLT) for monopoly on the money supply. intermediation rather than relying on the traditional banking system. For all these reasons, central banks are acting rapidly to introduce the new DLT allows transactions to be settled in technology into their payment and real time through direct access to the financial systems. A survey of 65 central central bank’s balance sheet rather than banks conducted by the Bank for commercial bank money. An example International Settlements shows that of DLT is blockchain technology, which 86% are engaged in some form of has a specific set of rules and is used as CBDC research, with 60% conducting the platform for bitcoin. Different rules experiments or proof of concept while can be applied to distributed ledgers to 14% are in the development and pilot suit the needs of the users. In the case arrangement stage.2 Wholesale CBDCs Financial Inclusion Is a Key Reason for CBDCs in Emerging Economies (Fig. 1) Payment safety is the main reason in OECD countries* Advanced Economies (1) = Not so important (3) = Important Emerging Market and Developing Economies (2) = Somewhat important (4) = Very important 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Average ImportanceAverage 0.5 0.0 Financial Financial Monetary Policy Payments Efficiency Payments Efficiency Payments Safety/ Other Inclusion Stability Implementation (Cross-border) (Domestic) Robustness As of December 31, 2020. *The 37 OECD members are generally considered to be advanced economic nations. Source: Bank for International Settlements. 2 As of December 31, 2020. 2 would be exclusively available to While this difference appears to be just financial institutions that hold deposits a detail in normal times, we believe with the central bank, whereas retail that the payment system would CBDCs would be issued for use by the be significantly more resilient in a public. In this article, we are focusing on banking crisis or during a cyberattack, retail CBDCs as they are the main focus when counterparty risks are for central banks. significantly higher. CBDCs Will Likely Revolutionize the Another important potential impact Payment System of CBDCs will be to lower the cost of CBDCs will likely have a revolutionary transfers, which is particularly relevant impact on the payment system by for individuals and businesses in potentially fostering greater financial emerging markets. Current digital resilience, promoting efficiency, and payment systems can be expensive for CBDCs will likely reducing costs. Current payment small and medium‑sized businesses as systems often involve transfers of costs often involve a flat transaction fee have a revolutionary commercial bank money, which are and, depending on volume, a percentage impact on the then settled on the central bank balance of the value of the transaction. sheet. Although the payment is cleared payment system Greater financial inclusion in emerging instantly, the settlement between banks market (EM) economies will likely by potentially on the central bank balance sheet is not translate to increased access to credit instant. Credit exposures between banks for individuals and businesses in the fostering greater accumulate due to the delay, which short term. Since the demand for leads to credit and liquidity risk. It is financial resilience... borrowing will likely exceed the rise in only when the transfers are made in the savings, interest rates may initially rise. central banks’ accounts that all claims — Aadish Kumar In the medium term, however, greater are finalized. International Economist financial inclusion should allow firms Transfers in CBDCs eliminate credit and households to build buffers in risk as they involve transferring the the form of saving and borrowing in direct claims on the central bank response to shocks, which in turn will from one bank to another rather than likely reduce business cycle volatility. holding funds at an intermediary. Lower growth volatility would result in The transactions would be settled in lower interest rate volatility—potentially 3 real time using central bank money reducing the risk premium embedded rather than commercial bank money. in EM sovereign yields. Bank Account Ownership Appears to be Lower in Emerging Markets (Fig. 2) In OECD countries, more than 90% have bank accounts Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia/Pacific Latin America & Caribbean OECD Members 100 80 60 40 20 Population Ages 15+ (%) Ages Population 0 2011 2014 2017 As of June 30, 2018. Most recent data available. Source: World Bank. 3 The additional return or yield expected from an investment to compensate for the additional level of risk being taken. 3 Greater Financial Inclusion May local social group, and the outcome of Reduce EM Risk Premia a loan application of one member of the For central banks operating in group depends on the repayment history developing economies, where fewer of other group members. CBDCs could people have bank accounts than help loan applicants to document a in advanced economies within the steady income and use this information Organisation for Economic Cooperation in the loan application process, reducing and Development (OECD) “financial or eliminating the dependence on inclusion” is cited as the most important peer pressure. CBDCs could therefore motivation for introducing CBDCs (see help supercharge micro‑credit Figures 1 and 2). Financial inclusion to financially excluded people means that individuals and businesses without collateral. have access to useful and affordable CBDCs Are Not Without Risks financial productions and services to meet their needs.