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The Fate of Dinwoody Glacier: Present State of Mass Balance and Downstream Impacts of Glacier Runoff

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The Fate of Dinwoody Glacier: Present State of Mass Balance and Downstream Impacts of Glacier Runoff THESIS THE FATE OF DINWOODY GLACIER: PRESENT STATE OF MASS BALANCE AND DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF GLACIER RUNOFF. Submitted by Brooke E. Stamper Graduate Degree Program in Ecology In partial fulfillment of the requirements For the Degree of Master of Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado Summer 2018 Master’s Committee: Advisor: Andrew K. Bliss Neil S. Grigg Steven R. Fassnacht Copyright by Brooke E. Stamper 2018 All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT THE FATE OF DINWOODY GLACIER: PRESENT STATE OF MASS BALANCE AND DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF GLACIER RUNOFF. The Wind River Range in Wyoming supports many of the few remaining continental glaciers of the North American Rocky Mountains; the glacier meltwater runoff feeds four major river sys- tems within the U.S. West. Runoff from glaciers affects downstream ecosystems by influencing the quantity, seasonality, and chemistry of the water. We describe the present state of Dinwoody Glacier, the fourth largest glacier in the Wind River Range. We utilize photogrammetry, snow depth measurements, and ablation measurements to characterize surface mass balance for summer of 2017. Localized and nearby stream gauge measurements help to quantify glacial meltwater runoff inputs to Dinwoody Creek. Both of these methods allowed us to put the changes of the Dinwoody Glacier into the broader context of the Missouri River Watershed. If melted, Dinwoody Glacier would no longer provide a reliable source of melt water for thousands of people living in the Missouri River Watershed. Understanding how shrinking glaciers and decreasing melt-water runoff will impact communities and ecosystems downstream is critical for effective environmental management. The response of the Wind River glaciers to future climate is uncertain; however, past research has shown declines in glacial mass, snow cover, snowmelt timing and stream power. The data we collected in the summer of 2017 tells the story of a quickly diminishing and critical resource despite 2017 being a uniquely wet and cold year. While glacier meltwater runoff con- tributions to Dinwoody Creek were above average, the Accumulation Area Ratio for Dinwoody Glacier in 2017 was 21% suggesting a glacier in severe recession. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many thanks are in order when a long-term project finally comes to fruition and I am certain I have accidentally left out contributors that helped pave the relatively smooth path I ventured along. To those unsung heroes, I thank you now for your strong shoulders and your meticulous paving- I was able to see more clearly and travel further on this endeavor because of you. If advising was an Olympic sport, the Gold Medal would go to Andrew K. Bliss. My gratitude for your humble mentorship and dedicated advising is endless. Thank you for every way you facilitated my growth in the past two years and for being an overall exemplary human being. Your ability to be flexible, encouraging and proactive in facilitating my mental well-being while achieving my goals has been a gift. Lastly, it would be utterly tactless to not mention, that one time we hiked for 14-hours and at the top of the last big hill, you selflessly gave me the last of your organic, un-sulfured dried mangos- for that, I am eternally grateful. Because of you, I was able to see more clearly and travel further on the path toward this lifelong goal. Thanks is also due to Neil Grigg, your support and mentorship was fundamental in completing this thesis. One nugget of advice that you likely don’t even remember giving me, was to write down things I am grateful for every single day. My gratitude journal is now a canon of my existence and undoubtedly altered my outlook on life. Today I am grateful that you patiently persevered in the act of teaching me, Water resources planning and management, and that I somehow didn’t scare you off in the process. I am also grateful that you took the time to collaborate and give honest advice to me when I came to a fork in the trail. Because of you, I was able to see more clearly and travel further on the path toward this lifelong goal. To Niah Venable, thank you for your unflappable authenticity and masterful Snow Hydrology professing. I am so thankful that you were willing to take me beneath your wing and be a voice of encouragement every step of the way. Because of you, I was able to see more clearly and travel further on the path toward this lifelong goal. iii To Steven Fassnacht, thank you for your sage advice and willingness to shepherd another hopeful-hydrologist in the pursuit of scientific truth. Your patience is simply admirable; one day, I hope to engender half the grit and humility you display when the wind is blowing, your fingers are freezing and the same question has been hurled at you for the 13th time that hour. Because of you, I was able to see more clearly and travel further on the path toward this lifelong goal. To my family, thank you for being all of the above and putting in over-time on the front-end- and by that I mean the past 26 years [9 months and 25 days]. Because of you, I was able to see more clearly and travel further on the path toward this lifelong goal. In addition, you kept me on this path- by any means necessary, whether that be a gentle nudge or not-as-gentle, shove/drag method. I needed that- thank you for knowing when either of the aforementioned methods of maintaining the path of a straightened arrow was necessary. Finally, thank you for your candid (to put it tactfully, Sarah), elaborate (Chris), poignant (Breanne), unwavering (Mom), sage (Dad), sometimes-unprompted (Grandma), and to-death-do-us-part (Jeremy) encouragement. Each of you have contributed significantly to this accomplishment and there aren’t words, nor yoga moves, nor vegan ingredients, nor hippie-elixirs that properly embody my deep gratitude for all of you. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT . ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . iii LIST OF TABLES . vi LIST OF FIGURES . vii Chapter 1 Introduction . 1 Chapter 2 Literature review . 6 2.1 Historic Climate and Peoples . 6 2.2 Glacial ablation . 12 2.3 Water management on the Wind River Indian Reservation . 12 Chapter 3 Study site . 17 3.1 Overview . 17 3.1.1 Study site climate . 19 3.1.2 Climate change in the Wind River Range . 19 3.1.3 Uniqueness of 2017 weather . 27 3.2 Hydrology . 27 3.3 Recent glacier changes . 30 Chapter 4 Field methods, data, and results . 34 4.1 Glacier-wide photogrammetry . 35 4.2 Summer snow conditions . 36 4.3 Estimated glacier snow accumulation via snowline tracking . 40 4.4 Ablation measurements . 43 4.5 Ablation plot photogrammetry . 45 4.6 In Situ Weather observations . 50 4.6.1 Kestral . 50 4.6.2 Temperature and relative humidity at Ablation 1 . 50 4.7 Local stream discharge . 52 Chapter 5 Discussion . 56 5.1 Comparison of glacier melt and stream discharge . 56 5.2 Comparison of glacier climate to SNOTEL site climate . 57 Chapter 6 Conclusions . 59 v LIST OF TABLES 4.1 Snow density at Ablation 2 . 37 4.2 Ablation measurements for the period 2017/8/5-8. 45 4.3 Weather measurements were recorded over the period 2017/8/5-8 at various times, generally in tandem with field measurements. 50 vi LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 Wind River Range map of land use . 2 2.1 Topographic map of the Wind River Range . 8 2.2 1843 View of the Wind River Mountains . 10 2.3 1950 map of Wind River glaciers . 13 2.4 Historical Allotments Map . 15 3.1 Basemap with historic glacial recession . 18 3.2 SNOTEL map . 20 3.3 SNOTEL snow climatology . 21 3.4 SNOTEL snow vs. elevation . 21 3.5 Figure by: Rice et al. (2012) . 22 3.6 Cold Springs SNOTEL Temperature Data . 23 3.7 Cold Springs SNOTEL Precipitation Data . 24 3.8 Cold Springs SNOTEL Maximum SWE Data . 25 3.9 Cold Springs SNOTEL Day of Maximum SWE . 25 3.10 Wyoming SWE as recorded by SNOTEL in February 2017 . 28 3.11 Cold Springs SNOTEL precipitation climatology . 29 3.12 Cold Springs SNOTEL temperature climatology . 30 3.13 Cold Springs SNOTEL snow w.e. climatology . 31 3.14 Dinwoody Creek discharge time series . 32 3.15 Dinwoody Creek discharge climatology . 33 4.1 Glacier-wide 3D model . 36 4.2 Snow depth map . 38 4.3 Snow pit . 39 4.4 Snowline method . 41 4.5 Snow covered area time series . 42 4.6 Ablation measurements . 44 4.7 Ablation rates and temperature . 44 4.8 Ablation plot photogrammetry 1 . 47 4.9 Ablation plot photogrammetry 2 . 48 4.10 Ablation plot photogrammetry 3 . 49 4.11 In situ temperature compared to SNOTEL temperature . 51 4.12 In situ relative humidity . 51 4.13 Salt dilution measurements . 54 4.14 Salt dilution experimental setup . 54 vii Chapter 1 Introduction Runoff of melt water from glaciers is an important source of water and nutrients for ecosystems and people living downstream of glaciers (Kaser et al., 2010). Mountain glaciers across the world are expected to lose mass this century. Glaciers in Western Canada and the continental U.S. are expected to lose 85% of their volume by 2100 (Radic et al., 2014) and as a result, glacial runoff in the region will decrease (Bliss et al., 2014; Marks et al., 2015). Recent research on glacial volume and runoff decline has focused on larger areas, but runoff projections for individual glaciers and watersheds are scarce (Casassa et al., 2009).
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