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Standard Life Aberdeen Inside Track Series Standard Life Aberdeen Inside Track Series November 2018 Private Markets Peter McKellar, Global Head of Private Markets Aberdeen Standard Investments is one of the largest private markets managers globally Pure-play asset management – not bank or insurance owned Largest global private markets managers – private markets AUM £bn 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Independent Insurance owned Bank owned Source: Willis Tower Watson Global Alternatives Survey 2017. Aberdeen Standard Investments as at 30 June 2018 (includes cross holdings). 2 Private markets are key to success in a world of “new active” investing Client demand for broader and deeper sources of performance and diversification “New active” calls for a much broader opportunity set Private markets – investment in unlisted assets Traditional “New active” Real Assets opportunity set opportunity set • Real estate Public markets Private markets • Infrastructure Core fixed income Non-core and specialities • Natural resources and equity Local focus Global focus Corporates Individual asset Multi-asset strategies class products • Private equity • Private credit Benchmark driven Benchmark agnostic 3 Private markets investment universe is broad and varied Helping to meet a range of client outcomes The private markets spectrum Private Markets Real Assets Private Credit 4 Why private markets? Potential to offer higher returns than traditional asset classes Private markets capture illiquidity premia of c100-300bps above listed markets Public Listed Private Markets Private Markets Markets 25% 20% Illiquid Growth Avg: 9% 15% Listed Private Markets Private Markets Avg: 6% Avg: 6% 10% Public Markets Avg: 3% 5% 0% Note: Listed public markets dispersions were calculated based on volatility of relevant asset class in the period of Q2 2008 to Q2 2018. Dispersion of private markets assets estimated based on top quartile managers from Cambridge Associate data, time periods are subject to data availabilities. Source: Aberdeen Standard Investments (Long Term Outlook 2018 and Private Markets House View 2018), Thomson Reuters, Cambridge Associates 5 Why private markets? Private markets offer lower correlation than traditional assets Private markets asset classes offer low correlation of A private markets portfolio provides growth as well as returns to public markets diversification to a traditional 60/40 portfolio Correlation table 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 350 1.00 0.63 1 PE Global Buyout 1.00 300 2 PE Global VC 0.80 1.00 250 3 Infra Global 0.89 0.74 1.00 200 0.55 4 RE Global Value Add 0.62 0.61 0.72 1.00 150 0.12 5 RE Global Opportunistic 0.80 0.70 0.78 0.84 1.00 100 6 Natural Resources 0.56 0.38 0.55 0.33 0.46 1.00 50 Return rebased 100 Return rebased to 7 Private Debt Global 0.87 0.68 0.71 0.40 0.62 0.54 1.00 0 8 Listed PE 0.63 0.49 0.47 0.25 0.46 0.27 0.81 1.00 9 RE Listed (Global) 0.46 0.32 0.34 0.16 0.36 0.15 0.63 0.85 1.00 Traditional 60/40 Private Market basket 10 Listed Infra (Global) 0.12 0.08 0.10 0.02 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.39 0.65 1.00 Global Equities Global Bonds 11 European Equities 0.59 0.44 0.4 0.16 0.35 0.32 0.66 0.83 0.75 0.54 1.00 Global Equities Global Bonds Traditional 60/40 Private Markets Basket 12 US Equities 0.37 0.38 0.20 0.11 0.28 0.16 0.47 0.72 0.75 0.75 0.77 1.00 Barclays Global - - Global Equities 1.00 13 0.27 0.10 0.18 0.09 0.57 0.63 0.68 0.30 0.61 0.37 1.00 Aggregate Bond 0.13 0.03 Global Bonds 0.58 1.00 14 UK Equities 0.66 0.50 0.49 0.18 0.41 0.41 0.77 0.86 0.76 0.52 0.96 0.78 0.64 1.00 Traditional 60/40 0.97 0.71 1.00 15 Pacific (ex-J) Equities 0.73 0.49 0.61 0.22 0.40 0.43 0.81 0.77 0.64 0.23 0.80 0.48 0.70 0.86 1.00 Private Markets Basket 0.63 0.12 0.55 1.00 16 Japanese Equites 0.49 0.52 0.43 0.24 0.37 0.25 0.61 0.67 0.41 0.14 0.56 0.51 0.30 0.62 0.56 1.00 6 Growing demand for private markets creates a significant revenue opportunity Driven by mainstreaming of private markets asset classes 2016-2020 Global estimated net flows 1 2022 Revenue opportunity 1 The opportunity to enhance returns by ‘capturing’ the illiquidity premia, generating alpha and ‘dampening’ listed market volatility Private markets/ 19% Alternatives 2 6% Active specialities 43% Private markets/ Evolution of portfolio construction with a focus on $162bn Alternatives 2 ‘alpha’ strategies supported by ‘passive’ or c2/3 rds ‘market’ beta strategies 41% Solutions active” “New c3/4 19% active” “New A greater focus on absolute return and fixed Active specialities $73bn benchmarks in a lower return environment Global revenues Global Global net inflows net Global 12% 34% Passives / ETFs c1/3 rd Solutions $47bn A desire by larger investors seeking bespoke 7% Passives / ETFs $28bn <1/10 solutions to fill particular asset class gaps and 17% return expectations Traditional active (19%) Traditional active $65bn The convergence of traditional and private “New active” AUM to grow from “New active” revenue to grow from markets asset managers $32tn in 2016 to $55tn by 2022 1 $190tn in 2016 to $282tn by 2022 1 1. Source: BCG, July 2016, July 2017 and July 2018. Percentages shown are as a proportion of global estimated net inflows into growth categories. 2. Includes hedge funds, private equity, real estate, infrastructure, commodity funds and liquid alternative mutual funds. 7 Superior revenue margins and stability of AUM in private markets Attractive economics for asset managers Superior client returns and value added through investment Typical private markets fund profile improves stability of management expertise support higher revenue margins flows and AUM Net cash flow and NAV profile on a £1bn fund size 1000 Direct private equity 750 Mezzanine debt Alpha Opportunistic real estate and infrastructure 500 orientated 250 Value-added real estate and infrastructure 0 Start 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 GBP (millions) -250 Core and core plus real estate and infrastructure -500 -750 Exposure Generic NAV profile PE contributions Indirect driven PE distributions Net cash flow after fees and carry Revenue margin / Return / / Risk / Return margin Revenue Investment grade credit • Typical average private equity fund has a life of 7-10 years • Predictable inflows during the investment phase and outflows during the realisation phase • Stable revenue margins 8 Leveraging operational expertise and skills in asset allocation to create solutions Creating client solutions key to future success in private markets Operational capabilities framework Alpha-oriented Tomorrow’s leading specialists full-service provider? Private markets Operational Operational expertise Challenged firms allocators Modest High Limited Strong Allocation & risk management capabilities 9 Broad range of private markets capabilities including real estate With global presence and 400+ professionals across 19 offices around the world Two franchises working closely together • £13 billion AUM Private Equity • Capabilities across primaries, secondaries and co- investments across venture, growth and buyouts • £3 billion AUM Infrastructure • Capabilities across concession and economic infrastructure • £500 million AUM Natural • Primaries, secondaries and co-investments in Peter McKellar Resources natural resources Global Head of Private Markets • £1 billion AUM (+£5 billion managed by credit team) Private Markets Private Private Credit • Capabilities across mid-market debt, ABS, commercial real estate lending, infra lending, fund financing and strategic credit • £500 million AUM Private Markets • Capabilities in investing across all five private Solutions markets asset classes • £39 billion AUM David Paine Pertti Vanhanen Real Estate • Capabilities across direct real estate, listed real Real estate and multi-manager Estate Co-Head Real Estate Co-Head Real Estate 10 Private markets senior leadership team One of the most experienced and established teams in the market Peter McKellar Global Head of Private Markets Edinburgh Industry experience: 30+ Years at ASI: 19 Graham McDonald Gershon Cohen Dominic Helmsley Jim Gasperoni Steven Murray Nalaka De Silva Doug Cruikshank Ingrid Neitsch Ajay Chitkara Head of Global Head of Concession Head of Economic Head of Real Deputy Head Head of Private Head of Fund Head of Strategic Head of Asset Private Equity Infrastructure Infrastructure Assets of Private Markets Markets Solutions Financing Credit Management Minority Investments Edinburgh London London Boston Edinburgh Edinburgh New York London Yrs in industry: 30+ Yrs in industry: 30+ Yrs in industry: 25+ Yrs in industry: 25+ Yrs in industry: 10+ Yrs in industry: 15+ Yrs in industry: 25+ Yrs in industry: 25+ New York Yrs at ASI: 30+ Yrs at ASI: 19+ Yrs at ASI: 5+ Yrs at ASI: 12+ Yrs at ASI: Joined Yrs at ASI: 6+ Yrs at ASI: Joined Yrs at ASI: 6+ Yrs in industry: 25+ in 2018 in 2018 Yrs at ASI: 1+ 61 FTEs 39 FTEs 6 FTEs 5 FTEs 10 FTEs 4 FTEs Edinburgh, London, London, Edinburgh, Paris, Madrid, Boston Edinburgh New York, London, Edinburgh New York Boston/Stamford Amsterdam, Sydney and Bogota and Hong Kong 11 Increasingly global reach Fast growing team with ability to attract leading talent Our offices Close to our clients and assets we invest in • Over 400 professionals dedicated to private markets Edinburgh Oslo • 19 offices around the world Stockholm Helsinki • Enhanced by macro-research capabilities across London Copenhagen Aberdeen Standard Investments Paris Amsterdam Boston Madrid Brussels Frankfurt Attracting talent Stamford Hong Kong New York Philadelphia • Private equity: 6 hires over last 12 months Singapore Bogotá • Infrastructure: 7 hires
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