Israel and the Middle East News Update

Thursday, November 15

Headlines: ​ ● Jewish Home Votes to Back Coalition Ultimatum ● Poll: Would Lose Seats if Election Held Today ● Shaky Truce in Gaza Appears to Hold ● Palestinian Fisherman Said Killed by Israeli Military ● Four Police Hurt in Stabbing Attack ● Hebron Mourns Palestinian Killed by Gaza Rocket ● Fake News Campaign Targets Liberman ● Trump Pick for Saudi Ambassador is , Hezbollah Expert

Commentary: ● Al Monitor: “’s Defense Minister Quits Amid Gaza Escalation” − By Ben Caspit, Senior Columnist ● : “Netanyahu Let Hamas Win” − By Nahum Barnea, Senior Columnist

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Aaron Zucker, Associate Editor ​ ​

News Excerpts ​ November 15, 2018

Times of Israel Jewish Home Votes to Back Coalition Ultimatum Jewish Home MKs on Wednesday night voted unanimously in favor of leaving the coalition if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not make their party leader Naftali Bennett the defense ministry, after Avigdor Liberman announced his resignation from the post earlier in the day. The lawmakers from the religious-Zionist party also voted to give Bennett full authority to carry out negotiations directly with the prime minister based on that ultimatum. A party spokesman declined to say how long the party would give Netanyahu to make the decision before they would pull out of the coalition and bring the government down.

Jerusalem Post Poll: Likud Would Lose Seats if Election Held Today Netanyahu's Likud party would hold 29 seats in if elections were held today, a poll released by Channel 2 found on Wednesday. The poll also found a 74% disapproval rating of Netanyahu's handling of the security situation in the south. Additionally, Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid would gain 18 seats, while Avi Gabbay's and Bennett's Bayit Yehudi both would garner 11 seats. If former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz formed his own party, Likud would hold 24 seats, Gantz 15 and Yesh Atid 13.

Times of Israel Shaky Truce in Gaza Appears to Hold IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot ordered reinforcements to remain in place near the Gaza Strip and for troops there to remain on high alert Wednesday, following a security assessment with senior officers from the Gaza Division, as a shaky ceasefire appeared to hold after intense fighting earlier in the week. According to the military, over 460 rockets and mortar shells were fired at southern Israel over on Monday and Tuesday — more than twice the rate at which they were launched during the 2014 war.

Ha’aretz Palestinian Fisherman Said Killed by Israeli Military The Israeli navy killed a 23-year-old fisherman from Gaza Wednesday, the Gaza Health Ministry reported. According to the report, Nuaf Ahmad al-Attar was hit with live fire in his stomach on a beach in the northern Gaza Strip.Earlier Wednesday, the Israeli army said it opened fire on a Palestinian man who threw grenades near the border fence in the northern Gaza Strip. The man, who was in the possession of a box cutter and a knife, was taken in for interrogation.

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Times of Israel Four Police Hurt in Jerusalem Stabbing Attack Four police were injured in a stabbing attack Wednesday at a police station in Jerusalem’s Armon Hanatziv neighborhood. Police said the attacker arrived at the entrance to the police station and attacked three officers, lightly injuring them. He was shot and seriously injured. The neighborhood, some of which is in former no-man’s land between East and West Jerusalem, has been the scene of several attacks in past years.

Times of Israel Hebron Mourns Palestinian Killed by Gaza Rocket At a small medical clinic northwest of Hebron, dozens of members of the Abu Asabeh family on Wednesday received the remains of their loved one, Mahmoud Abu Asabeh, who was killed by a rocket fired from Gaza earlier this week. Abu Asabeh was a contractor with a work permit who spent much of his time in Israel, and would return to his family in the on weekends.The funeral was almost entirely devoid of chants and factional flags, compared to a month ago, when many high-level Fatah and PA officials took part in a funeral for a Palestinian who was allegedly killed by settlers in the northern West Bank.

Ha’aretz Fake News Campaign Targets Liberman A website posing as the prestigious Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs posted Wednesday a fake article alleging a former Mossad chief had said Liberman is a Russian spy, implying he was therefore actually fired by the prime minister. It was first shared by a fake Twitter handle who also distributed it to several journalists. The claims of the article were quickly debunked, but the source of the campaign is still not clear.

Associated Press Trump Pick for Saudi Ambassador is Iran, Hezbollah Expert President Trump nominated retired general John Abizaid as ambassador to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday. Retiring from the US military in 2007, he was the longest serving commander of CENTCOM at a time when the US was embroiled in a variety of wars in the region. Abizaid has opposed the Iranian nuclear program, but also urged Israeli restraint in confronting it. As an observer for the UN in 1985, Abizaid saw some of Hezbollah’s first terror attacks and has spoken about the threat of terrorism in the region. His nomination comes at a crucial juncture for US-Saudi relations and also Riyadh’s role in the region.

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Al Monitor – November 14, 2018 Israel’s Defense Minister Quits Amid Gaza Escalation By Ben Caspit, Senior Columnist

● Before Avigdor Liberman even stepped into the defense minister’s shoes in May 2016, he announced that if he were to receive the Defense Ministry, the first thing he’d do would be to inform Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh that he has 48 hours to return the bodies of the slain Israelis as well as the live Israeli citizens held in Gaza. If not, then he — Liberman — would issue an order for Haniyeh’s elimination. But on Nov. 14, it was Haniyeh who had the last laugh. It’s been two and a half years since Liberman received the Defense Ministry, and Haniyeh is alive and kicking while Liberman has just quit his job. He made the official announcement at a press conference that day. This was on the background of the military confrontation this week between the (IDF) and Hamas, which Liberman himself qualified as “weakness.”

● Hamas hurried to publish a merry victory announcement after Liberman’s resignation, despite the fact that they absorbed quite a few strikes from Israel’s air force in recent days. That’s how it goes in the Middle East: Everything’s topsy-turvy and nothing ever really ends. An alert Hamas man in Khan Yunis detected a small, covert IDF unit doing its thing deep in the Gaza Strip, and this caused a chain reaction that led to the resignation of Israel’s defense minister. One minute Israel and Hamas were a handsbreadth away from an arrangement and a graduated end to the violence, and the next minute a military confrontation erupts between them. Immediately afterward, Liberman returned his keys and resigned — all of this in four days. Liberman’s resignation violated Israel’s most famous political rule, as formulated in the past by Ariel Sharon: “Always remain on top of the ship’s helm. Sometimes the helm will be up and sometimes down, but never leave it completely because there’s no way back.” Sharon meant that better to stay part of the government, on good days and on bad ones, rather than leave it for the opposition benches.

● Liberman had been on top. The head of the Defense Ministry holds one of the most powerful positions in the country, with the exception of the prime minister. The minister is the official sovereign over the West Bank and is in charge of the most powerful defense system in the Middle East. Nevertheless, Liberman decided to give it up. He hopes that his resignation won’t take him away from the ship’s helm, on the contrary. In his resignation announcement, Liberman also called for elections as quickly as possible. Thus, Liberman beat his hated rival, Education Minister Naftali Bennett, as the one to leave a weak government that allegedly lacks the power to inflict a real military strike on Hamas. And now, Bennett is held captive in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. His party, HaBayit HaYehudi, rushed off to demand the defense portfolio for Bennett immediately after Liberman resigned. Netanyahu’s circle just as quickly announced that Netanyahu will adopt the portfolio himself. HaBayit HaYehudi threatens to dismantle the coalition if Bennett doesn’t get the defense portfolio, but

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this may also be a historic mistake: When the right in Israel brings down a right-wing government, the country may end up with a left-wing administration instead.

● Liberman’s famous endurance failed him between Nov. 9 and Nov. 13. It all began when a Qatari gift of three large suitcases filled with dollars — $5 million per suitcase— reached the Gaza Strip. Liberman called this “capitulating to terror,” and he actually may be correct. “It’s like ‘protection’ money,” Liberman said in a meeting this week, according to a political source speaking on condition of anonymity. “We pay cash to the terrorists in exchange for some peace and quiet. The money is funneled directly to the families of those who tried to harm IDF soldiers. Actually, we’re funding the terror directed at ourselves.” Then came the complications regarding the IDF’s special force unit in the depths of the Strip, which set the territory on fire within seconds and resulted in the death of a top IDF officer. Hamas, Islamic Jihad and additional factions launched close to 500 rockets at Israel, while the Israeli air force destroyed infrastructure targets and Hamas buildings while trying not to kill people.

● The Cabinet convened on Tuesday night, where Liberman found himself in the minority again. Netanyahu had coordinated in advance with the Likud ministers and army heads not to wage war, but to return to routine life. Liberman made his decision in the course of the Cabinet meeting. He was no longer willing to serve as the punching bag of the right-wing electoral public. He knows that 2019 is an election year and that Netanyahu is inching closer to the end of his political life. He prefers to leave the Defense Ministry with his head held high rather than continue to crawl in Netanyahu’s shadow. He threw the keys back at Netanyahu without any advance warning. This is the second time he’s done that — the first time was in 1998 when he resigned from the role of CEO of the Prime Minister’s Office (that was also under Netanyahu).

● As opposed to what has been recently disseminated, including here, Netanyahu is at the moment the last person to want swift elections. Yet despite this, Liberman’s actions may force elections on the prime minister against his will. Now everything depends on Finance Minister , who is sick and tired of this term of office and ready for elections. It also depends on HaBayit HaYehudi chairman Naftali Bennett, who is determined to inherit Liberman’s seat in the Defense Ministry. If that doesn't happen, Bennett has no reason to try to keep Netanyahu’s 61 Knesset member slim majority coalition alive. But if indeed Netanyahu calls for early elections, Bennett would start his campaign at a disadvantage in light of the fact that Liberman was the first to resign in protest against the failings of the defense system and its weak anti-terror policies. In any case, Netanyahu will have to use all his political talents to keep the government together and enter 2019 weakened but not yet a lame duck.

● Israel is entering an era of political chaos that will continue over the next few weeks. This tumult is taking place parallel to numerous machinations of the political system, headed by the new party that former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz is expected to create with the goal of carrying off all those who oppose Netanyahu’s regime. The prime minister can reshuffle all the cards by offering Gantz the Defense Ministry now. Such a course of action would neutralize Gantz as a political threat and cause much dismay among Netanyahu’s numerous rivals. It would be hard

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for Gantz to turn down the offer, though Gantz is surrounded by people who would recommend that he not accept such an offer. Netanyahu will have to make dramatic decisions in the very near future. His maneuvering space has narrowed considerably, and we have not even spoken about the recommendations of the attorney general that are approaching on whether to indict him. Nevertheless, Netanyahu is well-known for his knack of emerging intact from hopeless situations.

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Ynet – November 14, 2018 Netanyahu Let Hamas Win By Nahum Barnea, Senior Columnist

● The time has come for us to understand what every child in Gaza already knows: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Hamas to stay in power. Because the alternatives to Hamas do not suit him, he prefers Hamas to stay in charge. Netanyahu refrains from taking over Gaza because he does not know what to do with it on the day after. He rejects the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip, because he doesn't want to be responsible for the attack that would come from a reconstructed strip. He blocks the entry of the Palestinian Authority into Gaza because having the West Bank and Gaza under the control of two weakened and hostile Palestinian factions is convenient for him. It is not a matter of divide and conquer, but of divide and flounder.

● The way the political leadership decided to end the recent round of fighting was scandalous. Every member of the Cabinet pretended to be Rambo, and none of them was willing to take responsibility for a military move. "Liar," Netanyahu says of (now former) Defense Minister ; "No, you're a liar," Lieberman says of the prime minister; "No," says Education Minister Naftali Bennett, "you're both liars." We had divided Cabinet meetings in the past, during wars and between wars. It's not the first time we hear about accusations flying around and information leaks, but rivalry between Cabinet members had seldom reached such a low point. The ministers of the current government frequently complain about the professional ranks, claiming they prevent them from governing. Cabinet member Ayelet Shaked wears this argument like a badge of honor.

● On Tuesday, Shaked and her colleagues chanced upon a golden opportunity: Hamas fired its 460 rockets at Israel. Each Cabinet member promoted his/her own deadly, perfect solution for the escalation on the southern front. And then—silence. None of them demanded to put their marvelous plans to a vote. These "glory seekers" hid under IDF uniforms. The problem did not arise from this week's 48 hours of fire. The prime minister—who during the 51 days of Operation Protective Edge learned that bombings can't bring down Gaza—came to the right conclusion: It's better to reach a ceasefire as soon as possible, with minimal casualties, and minimal damage. Netanyahu is responsible for the failure of Israel's policy in Gaza. Not just this week, but in his nine years as prime minister. It's not true that Netanyahu has no policy, he does have one: he is a devout believer in perpetuating the present situation—saying yes to Hamas, and no to rehabilitating Gaza. Unfortunately, the recurring fighting rounds are part of the existing situation.

● As in every round, the IDF is flaunting the damage it caused in Gaza—so many headquarters and houses have been destroyed. This is an empty claim, since no one in Israel—even at the far right—is admiring the houses bombed in Gaza. Hamas itself is not afraid of the sight of bombed buildings. Nevertheless, in every single round, the IDF claims it dealt a fatal blow to Hamas. A few months pass, and the phoenix rises again. The premier built his election

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campaign on his own personal success. World leaders admire him; the Iranians are afraid of him; Hamas is deterred; Abbas is humiliated; and the country is safe—only he can do this. In recent weeks, cracks have begun to show, and even Netanyahu's "base," including those who demonstrated in Sderot against the government policy in Gaza, understands this.

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