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BICOM Briefing: Israel Elec Ons April 2019

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BICOM Briefing: Israel Elec Ons April 2019 BICOM Briefing: Israel Elecons April 2019 This is an abridged version of BICOM’s full elecon briefing, available at www.bicom.org.uk/research A number of new pares and candidates have entered the Introducon race including Gantz On the 24 December, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 3. On Which Issues Will the Elecon Be Fought? announced that elecons would take place on 9 April. This briefing examines the reasons for early elecons; idenfies The 2019 elecons will be driven by personality rather than key issues; and highlights important events policy, reflecng a trend over the last ten years 1. Why Were Elecons Called? Bibi: The main issue will be Netanyahu’s leadership. He will argue that thanks to him, the country is prosperous, secure, The current government has been in power since May 2015 and internaonally respected. The opposion will argue he is and consists of Netanyahu’s Likud, right - wing pares, ultra - corrupt and poses a risk to democracy and the rule of law Orthodox pares and a centrist party. Security : naonal security is always a key issue with the The ming was driven by Netanyahu’s priority to hold elec- prime minister managing threats from Hamas, Hezbollah, ons before the Aorney General’s decision whether or not Iran, and terrorism in the West Bank. Pares on the right to indict him on a range of charges tend to benefit when security issues are of most concern. Early elecons came as no surprise. Elecons were due by The Palesnian Issue : this remains a source of deep division November 2019 and coalion partners usually fall out before but will not top the agenda. Most Israeli voters do not think the term is due to end a conflict ending agreement is possible 2. How is the elecon shaping up? Socio - economic issues : the economy has grown at 3 - 4% the Israeli polls usually fail to accurately predict the result past five years. Interest rates, inflaon, and unemployment Israel’s directly proporonate, party list system enables the are low. But the cost of living is an issue of concern party system to reinvent itself for every elecon 4. What events are likely to shake up the race? Likud maintains an overwhelming poll lead, polls suggesng Mergers: mergers may take place, parcularly if pares are it will win close to 30 seats concerned they may not reach the 3.25 % threshold According to current polls, the pares in the outgoing coali- An indictment against Netanyahu: this might lose him votes, on are expected to win a majority of 61 seats, suggesng or impede his ability to form a coalion: some pares have Netanyahu would be able to form the next coalion. This said they will not serve with an indicted prime minister could change if the Aorney general recommends he be A deterioraon of the security situaon: a flare - up in Gaza indicted could undermine Netanyahu’s image of “Mr Security” Party splits have raised the chance that a right - wing party A right - wing party falls below the electoral threshold: this could fail to win more than 3.25 per cent of the vote, the could make it impossible for Netanyahu to establish a stable minimum to gain seats in the Knesset (parliament), making it right wing coalion difficult for Netanyahu to form a government 5. What happens next? New entrance Benny Gantz is significant because of the strength of his polling numbers. His Resilience party is ex- Party lists must be finalised by 21 February, with some lists pected to win about 14 seats and he performs well in head - determined by party leaders and some by primaries to - head polls asking who voters would prefer as prime min- Within Likud, candidates will aempt to outdo one another ister with hard - line policies and statements. Labor candidates are Labor Party leader Avi Gabbay is struggling . He dissolved the entering a bier primary race Zionist Union, an alliance with Tzipi Livni’s Hantuah, on 1 Jan Party leaders will start announcing new high profile candi- The Joint List, an Arab party, is expected to win 12 seats, and dates from various areas of public life may become the second or third largest party The deadline for mergers is 21 February .
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