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Aktieudsyn Pandora

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Aktieudsyn Pandora AktieUdsyn Pandora Køb Kvartalsregnskabet skal bekræfte et fortsat højt Uændret Købsanbefaling siden 06/11/2012 underliggende aktivitetsniveau Analysedato: 05/05/2017 Fokuspunkter i 1. kvartalsregnskabet 2017 1. kvartal. Pandora vil i 1. kvartal være negativt påvirket af række faktorer af engangskarak- Aktuel kurs kl. 12:25: ter, som besværliggør sammenligningsgrundlaget. Pandora var i 1. kvartal 2016 positivt påvirket af ekstra-leveringer af smykker til forhandler-kæden Jared i forbindelse med op- 731,00 DKK graderingen af Jared-butikkerne til at indeholde et øget salgsareal dedikeret Pandora- smykker. Hertil kommer, at Pandora i slutningen af 2016 lukkede 700 multibrandede butik- Begivenhed: ker i USA. Dermed mister Pandora salget fra de 700 lukkede butikker i 1. kvartal 2017 i forhold til 1. kvartal 2016. Endelig har der været en kvartalsmæssig forskydning af leveran- 1. kvartalsregnskab cer fra 1. kvartal 2017 til 4. kvartal 2016. Det påvirker samlet omsætningen i 1. kvartal ne- gativt med 5%-point. Vi estimerer en salgsvækst i 1. kvartal på 7% i lokal valuta. Hvornår: Salgskanaler. Pandora har i de senere år satset på åbningen af Pandora-ejede konceptbu- Tirsdag d. 09/05/17 7.30 tikker. Vi modellerer en vækst i salget fra Pandora-ejede konceptbutikker på 27% i kvartalet. Væksten vil være drevet af et solidt salg i de butikker, der har eksisteret mere end 12 må- neder og nye butiksåbninger. Hertil kommer vores forventning om høj vækst i salget fra e- Kursudvikling ift. index handel. Vi modellerer en vækst i salget til Pandoras franchisepartnere (Wholesale) på 2% i 1. kvartal. En god underliggende vækst de eksisterende franchise-konceptbutikker og åb- ninger af franchise konceptbutikker bliver modsvaret af især lukningen af multibrandede butikker i USA og et svært sammenligningsgrundlag for de øvrige franchisekanaler. Markeder. Vi forventer, at salget i USA vil være negativt påvirket af lukningen af de 700 butikker i slutningen af 2016, ligesom ekstraleverancen til Jared i 1. kvartal 2016 besvær- liggør sammenligningsgrundlaget. Vi venter på den baggrund tilbagegang i salget i USA. Vi vil i den forbindelse have fokus på ’like-for-like’-salget (salget i de butikker, der har eksiste- ret i 12 måneder) ud af de amerikanske konceptbutikker, der kan bekræfte en fortsat god underliggende udvikling. Vi venter solid om end mere aftagende vækst på store modne markeder som det britiske og australske. Til gengæld ser vi stærk salgsvækst i bl.a. Italien, Frankrig og Kina. Indtjening. Vi venter en tilbagegang i bruttomarginalen på 0,4%-point til 74,2% i 1. kvartal i Ændring i EPS-estimater: forhold til 1. kvartal 2015. Tilbagegangen vil være drevet af det dæmpede salg og lavere År Før Nu guld- og sølvpriser. Det bliver i et vist omfang modsvaret af stigningen i Pandora-ejet retail 2017E 59,21 58,54 med høj lønsomhed. Vi venter desuden stigende salgs- og distributionsomkostninger som 2018E 69,49 69,32 følge af mere jævn markedsføringsaktivitet hen over året i forhold til tidligere. Vi modellerer en EBITDA-margin på 34,5% mod 37,1% i 1. kvartal 2016. Selskabets forventninger: 2017-prognosen. Pandora gentog i forbindelse med udsendelsen af nye regnskabsprincip- ”For 2017 forventer Pandora en om- per i april helårsforventningerne som annonceret i forbindelse med årsregnskabet. Vi venter sætning i intervallet 23-24 mia. kr. og en EBITDA-margin på ca. 38%. på den baggrund en fastholdelse af helårsforventningerne. Estimatændring. Vi har finjusteret vores estimater. Mio. kr. 1K 2016 1K 2017E Vækst 2016 2017E Vækst 2018E Nettoomsætning 4.740 5.126 8,1% 20.281 23.374 15,3% 26.609 Resultat af primær drift (EBIT) 1.645 1.645 0,0% 7.404 8.333 12,5% 9.635 Resultat før skat 1.654 1.640 -0,8% 7.650 8.328 8,9% 9.630 Nettoresultat 1.306 1.296 -0,8% 6.025, 6.579 9,2% 7.608 EPS (DKK) 11,38 11,53 1,3% 52,51 58,54 11,5% 69,32 Overskudsgrad 34,7% 32,1% - 35,6% 36,2% - 36,2% Pandora, nr. 5 / 2017 Søren Løntoft Hansen Senioranalytiker tlf. +45 74 37 44 64 [email protected] 05-05-2017 sydbank.dk Aktieanalysen 1/2 Almindelige oplysninger om udarbejdelse af analyser i Sydbank Denne analyse er udarbejdet af Sydbanks aktieanalyseafdeling, som er en del af Sydbank Markets, en forretningsenhed i Sydbank. Sydbank er under tilsyn af Finanstilsy- net. Sydbank har udarbejdet procedurer, der skal forebygge og forhindre interessekonflikter og sikre, at de udarbejdede analyser har en høj standard og er baseret på objektiv og uafhængig analyse. Disse procedurer er indarbejdet i forretningsgangene, der omfatter aktieanalyseaktiviteterne i Sydbank. Finansielle modeller og metoder anvendt i denne analyse De anbefalinger og holdninger, der udtrykkes i denne analyse er dannet på basis af en kombination af Discounted Cash Flow-analyse, branchekendskab, peer-group multi- pel analyse samt selskabsspecifikke og markedstekniske elementer (begivenheder der påvirker både selskabets finansielle og driftsmæssige profil). Analysens omsæt- nings- og indtjeningsestimater (markeret med E efter det angivne årstal) er baseret på segmenterede modeller under anvendelse af subjektive vurderinger af relevante fremtidige markedstendenser og konjunkturforventninger. De heraf fremkomne resultater er samlet i en værdiansættelsesmodel, som også tager højde for den seneste udvikling i historiske rapporter. Endvidere tages der højde for selskabets egne samt konkurrerende selskabers forventninger. Analysen er udarbejdet på grundlag af infor- mation fra kilder, som Sydbank finder troværdige. Primære kilder: Pandora, Signet, Follie Follie, Tifanny & Co, InStore, ThomsonReuters, Bloomberg. Risikovurdering og følsomhed En vurdering af de væsentligste risikoforhold og en kategorisering af risikoen (lav, middel eller høj) i forbindelse med anbefalingerne og holdningerne til denne analyse, herunder en følsomhedsanalyse, er gengivet i den senest udsendte AktieAnalyse på dette selskab, der kan findes på http://www.sydbank.dk/investering/analyser/aktier. Heraf fremgår ligeledes en vurdering af selskabets konkurrenceposition, som scores på en skala fra 1 til 5, hvor en høj score er ensbetydende med en stærk konkurrence- position. De anførte risikofaktorer og følsomhedsanalysen kan dog ikke anses for at være udtømmende. Valutakursrisiko Såfremt aktiekursen er noteret i en anden valuta end danske kroner kan valutakursudsving påføre investorer tab eller gevinst. Planlagte opdateringer af analysen Denne analyse planlægges opdateret kvartalsvist. Interessekonflikter. Denne investeringsanalyse har ikke været forelagt det omhandlede selskab forud for analysens offentliggørelse. Anbefalingsstruktur Inden for det seneste kvartal har Sydbank haft investeringsanbefalinger på 27 selskaber. Fordelingen af anbefalinger fremgår nedenfor under ”Fordeling af anbefalinger”. Betydningen af anbefalingerne på selskabsniveau fremgår nedenfor under kursudvikling. På selskabsniveau: Anbefaling Kursudvikling Tidshorisont Fordeling af anbefalinger Køb Bedre end gennemsnittet af virksomheder i kategorien 12 måneder 40,7% Hold På linje med gennemsnittet af virksomheder i kategorien 12 måneder 40,7% Sælg Dårligere end gennemsnittet af virksomheder i kategorien 12 måneder 18,5% Vi opdeler virksomhederne i to kategorier - cykliske og defensive aktier. Køb betyder således, at aktien vil klare sig relativt bedre end de øvrige selskaber i kategorien. Hold betyder, at aktien vil klare sig på linje med de øvrige selskaber i kategorien. Endelig betyder sælg, at vi forventer, at aktien vil klare sig dårligere end de øvrige aktier i kate- gorien. Eventuelle ændringer i anbefalingen i forhold til den seneste anbefaling på selskabet fremgår af denne analyse. Anbefalingsoversigt: Køb Hold Sælg Danske Bank A. P. Møller Mærsk Bang & Olufsen Jyske Bank DSV Pandora FLSmidth Vestas Nordea Cykliske aktier Rockwool SAS Carlsberg ALK‐Abelló Coloplast Genmab Chr. Hansen DONG Energy GN Store Nord ISS TDC H. Lundbeck Nets William Demant Defensive aktier Novo Nordisk Tryg Novozymes Topdanmark For en uddybning af alle anbefalinger samt en historisk anbefalingsoversigt for selskabet henviser vi til www.sydbank.dk/investering/analyser/aktierHU ..UH Denne investeringsanalyse henvender sig til Sydbanks kunder og må ikke uden Sydbanks udtrykkelige samtykke offentliggøres eller distribueres videre. Analysen er udar- bejdet på grundlag af informationer fra kilder, som Sydbank finder troværdige. Sydbank påtager sig dog intet ansvar for mangler, herunder eventuelle fejl i kilder, trykfejl eller beregningsfejl, samt efterfølgende ændrede forudsætninger. Anbefalinger i analysen er udtryk for bankens generelle holdning og kan ikke alene danne grundlag for investeringsbeslutninger. Anbefalinger kan medtages i forbindelse med rådgivning i Sydbank, hvor tillige kunders individuelle forhold skal indgå. Investering er forbundet med risikoen for økonomisk tab. Hverken historiske afkast og kursudvikling eller prognoser for fremtiden i materialet kan anvendes som pålidelig indikator for fremtidige afkast og kursudvikling. Et afkast og/eller en kursudvikling som beskrevet i dette materiale kan blive negativ. Hvor oplysningerne er baseret på bruttoafkast, vil gebyrer, provisioner og andre omkostninger kunne medføre, at afkastet bliver lavere end anført i materialet. Hvor materialet oplyser om den skattemæssige behandling af en disposition, er det med forbehold for, at den skattemæssige behandling altid afhænger af den enkelte kundes individuelle situation og at reglerne i øvrigt kan ændre sig fremover. I analysen nævnes aktier, som har risikomærkningen gul. Risikomærkningen
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