Kill the Leaders! Covert Operations, Assassinations and Coercive Power
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7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) Kill the Leaders! Covert Operations, Assassinations and Coercive Power 1. Dr. Adam Leong Kok Wey, Senior Lecturer, Specializations: Foreign policy and all dimensions of strategy, National Defence University of Malaysia, [email protected] Abstract Although much has been written about the practice of covert operations utilising assassinations of enemy leadership, none had specifically studied the strategic logic and utility of such operations as a means of coercive power. This paper provides an analysis of the effects of killing the enemy leadership through the lens of strategic theories related to leadership decapitation. Historical case studies of covert operations and assassinations conducted by the exiled Czechoslovakia government during World War II (Operation Anthropoid), and the practice of covert operations via assassinations to gain political power by the Nizaris between the 12th and 13th centuries in the Middle East, are used for the analysis of the utility of covert operations within the strategic context of coercive power. Although covert operations’ results have been mixed, this practice of coercive power continues to provide an economical and deniable form of intervention in pursuit of national interests (and power), and importantly, can be utilised by all states regardless of its relative power (from great powers to small powers). Keywords: Assassinations, strategic decapitation, leadership decapitation, special operations, morale Faculty of Liberal Arts, Prince of Songkla University, June 5-6, 2015 529 7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) Introduction Power is a notion that is both difficult to define and measure. There are numerous definitions on power and various concepts to measure it. Power can be both tangible, measuring in various terms of size of military and a state’s economic health, and intangible. Albeit its difficulties in having conclusive definitions and measurement, power is one of the key factors in ensuring a state’s survival and the promotion of national interests. Power comes in different forms and “texture”, such as diplomatic power, military power, coercive power, economic power and state power. Coercive power is one of the most practised form of power in international politics. It is used to support a state’s foreign policies, regardless of the overall size of the particular state’s power. Coercive power is used either to gain strategic advantage or to deter a potential foe. Coercive power is also used to demonstrate to allies and friendly states of a particular state’s resolve in confronting an adversary. Coercive power comes in various forms including threats of sanctions, blockades, suspension of trade, and to the extreme policy of waging war. One of the less discussed but widely used instrument of coercive power is covert operations. Covert operations includes a variety of intelligence operations ranging from subversion to more overt forms of violence such as assassinations. This paper studies covert operations conducted in support of a state’s foreign policy as a form of coercive power and assesses its strategic utility. Although covert operations’ results have been mixed, this practice of coercive power continues to provide an economical and deniable form of intervention in pursuit of national interests and power, and importantly, can be utilised by all states regardless of its relative power from great powers to small powers. This paper will first touch on the definitions of coercive power and covert operations used in this research, and then studies two important and unique case studies of covert operations conducted by the exiled Czechoslovakia government during World War II (Operation Anthropoid), and the practice of covert operations via assassinations to gain political power by the Nizaris between the 12th and 13th centuries in the Middle East. These case studies are analysed for its strategic utility and provides guidance for its contemporary use. Faculty of Liberal Arts, Prince of Songkla University, June 5-6, 2015 530 7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) Coercive Power Robert Dahl’s definition of power as ‘the ability of A to get B to do something which he would otherwise not do’ is one of the most widely used definition of power. They are three common ways for understanding the concept of power which are: control over resources; control over actors; and control over outcomes. Having control over resources is one of the most popular ways of understanding power, as it can be quantified. For example a state is considered powerful if it has abundant military resources, human resources, natural resources, and economic resources. Control over actors refers to the ability of a state to alter the behaviour of another state, usually by using various instruments of power. The power over outcomes perhaps is the most elusive and difficult to achieve, as it involves the setting up of a state’s end and employing various ways and means to achieve its end, which is difficult to predict due to the strategic problem of uncertainty. Power can be used coercively to compel an adversary or even a friendly state to do what the coercive state wants them to do. Coercive power can also be used to reshape the environment and make it conducive to attain control over outcomes. The instruments of coercive power can come in various forms, from military power waging wars to limited military interventions in ‘small wars’. Covert operations, secret small scale operations conducted with minimal resources but with very high yield results is another important tool of coercive power. More importantly, coercive power in the form of covert operations can be used by both great powers and even small powers. Perhaps with the usage of covert operations, Dahl’s parsimonious definition of power can be amended to, ‘A replaces B with a C to do what A wishes.’ For this to occur, coercive power with covert operations can be used to advance its goal. The next section continues the discussion of covert operations. Covert Operations Covert action, as it name implies, are conducted secretly by states and non-state actors to influence and manipulate events. The main attributes of covert action is secrecy and deniability. Covert operations are slightly differrent from military special operations Faculty of Liberal Arts, Prince of Songkla University, June 5-6, 2015 531 7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) which are both overt yet covert operations. Covert operations are usually conducted by intelligence agencies in the most clandestine and non-attributable ways, if things go wrong it can be plausibly denied. If things worked out all right, its secrecy usually precludes any attribution of the covert operations’ role in its success. M.R.D. Foot had given one of the better definitions of Special Operations which can be usefully used to describe covert operations too (as the British usually classifies Covert Operations as Special Operations) as: They are unorthodox coups, that is, unexpected strokes of violence, usually mounted and executed outside the military establishment of the day, which exercise a startling effect on the enemy; preferably at the highest level.1 Covert operation can be conducted by various means, from propaganda radio broadcasts, information warfare via social media today, to more violent forms of operations such as assassinations. Covert operations sometimes also involves working with various opposition parties, whether legitimate political parties or illegal rebel movements (and even terrorist organisations). Covert operatives usually provides military training, arms and financial aid to armed groups to support its aim of overthrowing an adversarial government. It can also fund an opposition party to assist in its overthrow of a government through legal and proper channels such as in a democratic election. Covert operations is useful as the ‘Third Option’ between using military force and diplomatic tools to achieve a state’s policy end. Military force intervention is usually the most difficult to use – it needs the tacit approval of international organisations and domestic support, and costly in terms of finance and blood. War’s ultimate end is also heavily influenced by the meddlesome three variables: chance, luck and uncertainty. History has shown that in many cases, a state that used war as a foreign policy tool usually ends up worse off, and high chances of even losing the war and risking total destruction of her state. Diplomacy usually works to slow and may not yield any results 1 M.R.D. Foot: “Special Operations/I”, chapter in Michael Elliott-Bateman (ed): The Fourth Dimension of Warfare: Vol. 1, Intelligence, Subversion, Resistance (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1970), p. 19. Gray: Explorations, p.145. Faculty of Liberal Arts, Prince of Songkla University, June 5-6, 2015 532 7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) at all, and can be dangerously seen as a weak way of conducting international security affairs. Covert operations bridges these two ways of conducting statecraft, it allows a state to conduct some forms of coercive measures and it is also both secret and deniable. It can be economical, as it usually uses a few operatives with a smaller budget as opposed to using large scale military forces, and if successful, yields handsome strategic results. If the covert operatives were caught, a state can deny it knew of their actions and can blame it on personal individual action that have nothing to do with the state. Covert operatives which are selected and trained for these operations knew that they were on their own, and will suffer horrendous torture and execution without any assistance from their governments. It is widely known that they are usually given poison pills to prevent them falling alive into enemy hands.