First Women at the Polls: Examination of Women's Early Voting Behaviour

First Women at the Polls: Examination of Women's Early Voting Behaviour Mona Morgan-Collins A thesis submitted to the Department of Government of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, January 2016 The London School of Economics and Political Science Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MRes/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 36 491 words (excl. bibliography and appen- dices). Statement of conjoint work I confirm that Chapter 3 was jointly co-authored with Dawn L. Teele (University of Pennsylvania) and I contributed 50% of this work. I analyzed data for Canada and Norway, while my co-author analyzed data for United Kingdom. We jointly collected this data and jointly wrote the paper. Statement of use of third party for editorial help I can confirm that parts of my thesis (Chapter 1 and 2) were copy edited for conventions of language, spelling and grammar by Charlesworth Group. 2 Acknowledgements My deepest gratitude is to my supervisor, Prof. Torun Dewan, for the continuous support of my Ph.D research and his immense knowledge. Besides my supervisor, I would also like to thank my mentor, Prof. Simon Hix, for his continuous support of my Ph.D research as well as his support in my position as a Fellow in Government. Advance gratitude goes to my examiners Prof. Miriam Golden and Prof. David Soskice. I would also like to thank various people for their sage advice and feedback on parts of this research or their support through my studies, including Rosie Campbell, Joni Lovenduski, Andy Eggers, Joachim Wehner, Ryan Jablonski, Jouni Kuha, Dominik Hangartner, Ulrike Theuerkauf and participants of the numerous work- shops, conferences and seminars where I presented this reserach. Personal gratitude goes to my partner, Andrew Watkins. 3 Abstract My dissertation research provides first systematic analysis of women's early voting behavior. The key contribution of this thesis is that women's suffrage made a significant dent into electoral politics. Such finding provides a direct contradiction to the so frequent claim that women voted as their husbands for most of the twentieth century. The thesis consists of three separate chapters, each addressing a distinct puzzle in the literature. In the first paper, I argue that, contrary to most of the extant literature, women contributed to the victory of the Republican Party in the 1920 election outside of the Black Belt. In the second paper, I argue that women in Protestant countries supported parties that appealed to their welfare and suffrage preferences in the first election after the vote was won. In the third paper, I argue that the redistributive effects of women's suffrage were mediated by women's support for parties with redistributive agendas. The key argument of this thesis is that women tended to vote on their redistributive preferences. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that women supported conservative parties, I find robust evidence that women's suffrage mostly benefitted parties with redistributive agendas. While my research does not seek to challenge the notion that women held socially conservative preferences, it directly contradicts the notion that women voted on such preferences for conservative parties. In the Catholic South, women's support for Christian Democratic parties most likely reflected women's preference for Christian Democratic type of the welfare state, which emphasized family values. In the Protestant North, women supported Socialist parties for their welfare preferences, particularly once they entered the workforce. But even at the time of suffrage, women were mainly attracted to parties on the left, responding to both their welfare and suffrage appeals to women. 4 Contents 1 Introduction: Motivation for this Research and its Contribution 8 1.1 Background: The Quest for Women's Suffrage . 9 1.1.1 The Timeline of Female Suffrage Adoption in the West and the World. 9 1.1.2 Explaining the Timing of Women's Suffrage Adoption in the West . 12 1.2 Related Literature: Women's Historical Voting Behaviour . 15 1.2.1 Does Suffrage Affect Partisan Outcomes? . 15 1.2.2 Which Political Parties Benefitted from Women's Suffrage? . 17 1.2.3 Limitations of Existing Literature and Rationale for this Dis- sertation Project . 21 1.3 Data & Methodology: Estimating the Effects of Suffrage on Political Outcomes . 23 1.3.1 Estimating Short-Term Effects of Female Suffrage . 23 1.3.2 Estimating Long-Term Effects of Female Suffrage . 25 1.4 Organization and Summary Findings . 25 1.4.1 Broader Contribution of This Research . 27 2 Votes for and by Women: How Did Women Vote after the Nine- teenth Amendment? 29 2.1 Introduction and Overview . 30 2.2 Background: The 1920 Election . 34 2.3 Related Literature and Contribution . 36 2.3.1 Theoretical Explanations for Women's Partisan Tendencies . 38 2.4 Data . 40 2.5 Descriptive Statistics . 41 2.5.1 Republican and Democratic Vote Shares 1918-1920 . 41 2.5.2 Key Independent Variable: Female Vote . 43 2.5.3 Plotting the Change in Partisan Vote Shares on Female Vote 45 2.6 Empirical Strategy: Difference in Difference . 45 2.7 Results: Measuring the Effects of Female Suffrage on Partisan Support 48 2.8 Robustness Checks . 52 2.8.1 Placebo Tests . 52 2.8.2 Restricting the Pool of Eligible Voters with Registration, Poll Taxes and Literacy Tests . 54 2.8.3 Alternative Explanations Examined with Data from Chicago 56 2.9 Final Remarks . 57 5 3 After the Vote: Programmatic Preferences and Women's Loyalty 60 3.1 Introduction . 61 3.2 Why Women's Enfranchisement May Have Mattered For Politial Power .................................. 64 3.2.1 Distributive Politics Thesis . 65 3.2.2 Traditional Voting Gap Thesis . 66 3.2.3 Electoral Co-Optation . 67 3.3 Empirical Approach . 68 3.3.1 Case Selection . 68 3.3.2 Identification Strategy . 69 3.3.3 Causality Concerns . 70 3.3.4 Key Independent Variable: The Intensity of Suffrage . 73 3.4 Results . 73 3.4.1 Canada . 74 3.4.2 Norway . 80 3.4.3 United Kingdom . 83 3.5 Robustness . 85 3.5.1 Pre-Existing Trends in Partisan Support . 85 3.5.2 Men's Counter-Mobilization . 86 3.5.3 Concurrent Reforms as Multiple Treatments . 88 3.6 Conclusion . 91 4 Universal Suffrage and the Electoral Support for Parties with Redistributive Agendas: Evidence from Sixteen Countries 93 4.1 Introduction and Overwiew . 94 4.2 Related Literature and Hypotheses . 96 4.2.1 Men's Suffrage . 96 4.2.2 Women's Suffrage . 97 4.3 Data and Descriptive Statistics . 101 4.3.1 Universal Suffrage . 102 4.3.2 Socialist Parties . 103 4.4 Empirical Strategy and Variables . 108 4.4.1 Dependent Variables . 109 4.4.2 Key Independent Variable . 109 4.4.3 Control Variables . 110 4.5 Results . 111 4.6 Concluding Remarks . 119 5 Summary Findings and Future Agendas 121 References 123 6 A Appendix 134 A.1 Appendix for Chapter 1: Introduction . 134 A.2 Appendix for Chapter 2: Votes for and by Women: How Did Women Vote after the Nineteenth Amendment? . 140 A.3 Appendix for Chapter 3: After the Vote: Programmatic Preferences and Women's Loyalty . 145 A.4 Appendix for Chapter 4: Universal Suffrage and the Electoral Sup- port for Parties with Redistributive Agendas: Evidence from Six- teen Countries . 152 7 1 Introduction: Motivation for this Research and its Contribution Beginning in the late nineteenth century and coming to fruition throughout the twentieth century, the introduction of women into the electorate was one of the most significant societal changes to occur over the past 150 years. Scholars as well as contemporary commentators and analysts have always wondered to what extent women's suffrage would affect politics. Would women vote? If so, would they vote as their husbands? Or would they vote on their religious, prohibitionists, moralist or progressive preferences? In the research presented here, I seek to re-examine some of the conventional claims and wisdoms in the literature on women's voting behavior and its political implications. My research provides first systematic analysis of the effects of women's suffrage on partisan outcomes. I seek to examine whether women voted differently than men and if so, which parties women were more likely to support and to shed light on why women held distinct partisan choices. The key argument of this thesis is that women voted differently from men both in the long-run and immediately after suffrage. Moreover, women tended to support parties with redistributive agendas. Such findings directly contradict the economic literature which claims that women's suffrage did not affect partisan outcomes. It also directly contradicts the political science literature which argues that women historically supported conservative parties. The thesis consists of three separate chapters, each addressing a distinct puzzle in the literature. In the first paper, I argue that, contrary to most of the extant literature, women contributed to the victory of the Republican Party in the 1920 election outside of the Black Belt.

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