ACAPS Briefing Note Briefing Note – 18 August 2014 Ukraine Crisis

Need for international Not required Low Moderate Significant Urgent assistance X

Insignificant Minor Moderate Significant Major Expected impact X

Key Findings

Anticipated scope and scale  Close to 140,000 people from eastern Ukraine have been displaced, another 16,000 from Crimea. The highest numbers of IDPs are located in eastern Ukraine.  Some 188,000 people have reportedly crossed into Russia since the beginning of the year.  Further displacement due to continuing heavy fighting in the eastern Donbas region, especially around the urban areas of and , is taking place.  An estimated 24,000 IDPs have reportedly returned to and Slovyansk since government forces retook the area, facing challenges due to damage to infrastructure, housing, businesses and industries. Priorities for humanitarian intervention  Insecurity is high and civilians are exposed to a high risk of being killed or  Health: vaccination of children against infectious diseases, assistance with injured. Human rights abuses, including abductions, torture/ill-treatment, pharmaceuticals and medical supplies; treatment of wounded. unlawful detentions and killings continue to be observed.  Protection: protection of civilians caught in the conflict; protection of the  Water, electricity and other public infrastructure has been damaged or rights of minorities; mines awareness. destroyed in the course of conflict, creating the need for safe water and  WASH: Safe drinking water and electricity to areas with damaged electricity supply. infrastructure.  Hospital closures due to interrupted essential supply lines (water and electricity) take place, shortages of emergency medical supplies occur. Humanitarian constraints Security issues hamper health services and access to health care in the  Insecurity and fighting limit access. conflict areas. The drinking water supply situation heightens the risk of  Administrative issues. water-borne diseases; there is a risk of increased numbers of Tuberculosis incidences.  Concerns regarding the safety of on the peninsula remain.

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ACAPS Briefing Note Crisis Overview in eastern Ukraine. In a direct encounter between pro- and anti-government activists, clashes erupted in Odessa in the south-west of Ukraine, leaving 40

people dead. More than 30 of them died in a fire blaze in a trade union building.  Following a decision on 21 November 2013 by Ukraine's then President Viktor  won the presidential elections on 25 May, with 54.7% of the Yanukovych to abandon an association with the European Union and instead vote. Most polling stations remained closed in eastern Ukraine, whereas turnout seek closer cooperation with Moscow, massive street protests took place in Kiev in the west of the country (coloured in dark green in the map below) was high: and other major Ukrainian cities. Months of anti-government protests followed in

which people expressed their dissatisfaction with corruption, poverty and social Voter turnout 25 May Elections inequality in the country. Violent clashes erupted between police and protesters. In mid-February 2014, more than 80 people were killed in Kiev within several days.  Under an EU- and Russian-mediated deal, Ukrainian President Yanukovych conceded early elections, but soon after negotiations on 21 February, fled the capital; the opposition took control. The Ukrainian Parliament voted to remove Yanukovych and to hold new elections in May 2014.  In February 2014, pro-Russia protesters in the southern peninsula Crimea, where the majority of inhabitants are Russians, started rallying against the new authorities in Kiev. A referendum in Crimea was held on 16 March 2014 on whether the region should officially join Russia. 97% of voters voted in favour of Crimea joining the Russian Federation and Crimea effectively becoming absorbed into the Russian territory. The referendum was declared illegal by Ukraine, the European Union and the United States. By late March, Russia seized all military bases in Crimea and Ukrainian forces were ordered to leave Crimea by the acting Ukrainian president. Around 16,000 people have fled Crimea since March.  Riots and clashes between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian activists started to be reported from eastern Ukraine where a large share of the population is of Russian ethnicity. By early April 2014, tensions flared in eastern Ukraine, with Source: Electoral Geography, 2014 the cities of Lugansk, , Donetsk, Slovyansk and others experiencing uprisings by pro-Russian activists and the seizure of government buildings by  On 26 and 27 May, the Ukrainian army launched an "anti-terrorist operation" to these groups. oust separatists who occupied Donetsk airport. At least 40 separatists were  An agreement to ease the situation in Ukraine was reached in Geneva on 17 killed during fighting. April 2014 between representatives from Ukraine, Russia, the European Union  Tensions between Ukraine and Russian Federation continued to increase when and the United States. It collapsed after a deadly gunfight in an eastern Russian energy company Gazprom cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine in Ukrainian town at a pro-Russian checkpoint on 20 April 2014 during the Easter mid-June, after Ukraine missed a Russian-imposed deadline to pay a 2 billion truce. In late April, seven OSCE military observers were detained by pro- USD instalment for past gas deliveries. Russian separatists in Slovyansk, but released after a few days. Another team  On 27 June, the EU signed an association agreement with Ukraine, along with that went missing in May was released a month later. Georgia and Moldova that binds the three countries more closely to the West  Tensions escalated further with protests rising in Slovyansk and and both economically and politically. with the Ukrainian forces strengthening their so-called anti-terrorism operations 2

ACAPS Briefing Note  On 6 July, government forces retook control over the separatists' strongholds Crisis Impact Slovyansk and Krematorsk. Fighting in the following weeks concentrated on the densely populated urban centres of Donetsk and Luhansk. Displacement  On 17 July, a Malaysia Airlines plane was shot down over eastern Ukraine, all 298 people on board were killed. At the end of July, the European Union and the United States announced further sanctions against Russia, targeting its energy, banking and defence sectors.  By mid-August, more than 139,000 people were displaced in eastern Ukraine in addition to the displaced from Crimea. Continued fighting and lack of public transport limit the possibility for civilians from contested cities to seek refuge in other areas.  Gas, water and electricity facilities in the eastern part of the country have been damaged or destroyed, as well as transportation infrastructure. Shortages of medical supplies and limited health services have been observed. Fresh food supply is limited in some of the contested cities in eastern Ukraine.  Between April and August, fighting between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian troops claimed the lives of more than 2,100 people. The human rights situation in eastern Ukraine deteriorated as a consequence of the continued unstable and violent situation, and insecurity prevails.

Source: OCHA, 2014/08/15

 According to UNHCR, by 13 August, a total number of 155,800 had been displaced in Ukraine. Close to 140,000 IDPs from eastern Ukraine had registered for some form of assistance with government or local NGOs in Ukraine. Almost 65,000 of them are located in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts, and more than 18,000 in Kiev. An estimated 16,000 people have been displaced from Crimea, with the highest number having moved to Kiev and Lviv (UNHCR, 2014/08/13).  Furthermore, as of 14 August, an estimated 188,000 people have crossed into Russia since the beginning of the year, and over a thousand have applied for asylum in other neighbouring countries such as Poland and Belarus (OCHA, 2014/08/15).  The number of people displaced from the Luhansk and Donetsk regions has risen sharply from 2,600 in early June to over 102,600 at the start of August, with further displacement continuing to take place (OCHA, 2014/08/06, OCHA, 2014/08/15).

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ACAPS Briefing Note  Overall, numbers of displaced people are likely to be higher as there is no personnel have been detained between April and August (OHCHR, 2014/04/15, functioning centralised registration system for displaced people who arrive in OHCHR, 2014/05/15, OHCHR, 2014/07/15, AI, 2014/07/11, OHCHR, 2014/06/08). different parts of Ukraine from Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Other IDPs not  According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, the included in the figures are those who do not want to register with local current deteriorating economic situation and unemployment level, together with authorities for protection-related reasons (HRW, 2014/07/21, UNHCR 2014/08/05). the on-going crisis, could see a rise in the number of cases of violence against  In June, Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko ordered that humanitarian women, domestic violence and trafficking in humans, as vulnerabilities become corridors be created to help civilians flee fighting in the east of the country. much more acute (OHCHR, 2014/04/15, OHCHR, 2014/05/15). During fighting in early August, some 3,000 people left Luhansk through such a  In eastern Ukraine, freedom of expression is under particular attack through the corridor, but many people are reportedly afraid to use evacuation corridors. harassment of, and threats to, journalists and media outlets. Abductions, illegal Some 5,000 persons have left Slovyansk using humanitarian corridors that were detentions and in some cases torture and murder of journalists have been established in the beginning of August (AlJazeera, 2014/06/10, WSJ, 2014/06/10, reported. The UNESCO Director-General, Irina Bokova, has condemned the Kyivpost, 2014/08/06, OCHA, 2014/08/10, OCHA, 2014/08/15). murders of six journalists in Ukraine since January 2014 (OHCHR, 2014/04/15, OSCE, 2014/05/02, UNESCO, 2014/07/01). Education  In the beginning of August, some 300 children were reportedly still in  Education has been affected by the conflict. In mid-April, all schools and orphanages in the areas under the control of armed groups according to kindergartens in Slavyansk city had been closed by the authorities. Later that Ukrainian authorities (UN, 2014/08/08). month, UNICEF Field Monitors reported that in Slovyansk the schools that were  In eastern Ukraine, a visiting UN human rights monitoring team documented the operating were experiencing low attendance of pupils because parents have use of landmines that have allegedly led to three deaths and left several people security concerns about allowing their children to go to school. In Donetsk injured. According to other sources, the crop harvest which began in late June oblast, children had been reported to be kept away from school in some city was reportedly complicated by farmers' fears of mines planted in fields centres due to the escalation of violence. As of 12 August 2014, 165 educational according to Agriculture Minister Ihor Shvaika, though it was considered a threat facilities, including 40 preschool and 96 mainstream educational facilities, 12 to only a relatively small part of harvest operations (Reuters, 2014/07/10, UN Radio, vocational colleges, 14 higher education institutions have been reported 2014/07/04). damaged in . In , 31 secondary educational  In April, Ukraine’s Parliament adopted a law that defines Crimea as temporarily facilities and 7 kindergartens have been reported damaged (UNICEF, 2014/04/17, occupied and which regulates the entry and exit of Crimean citizens from the UNICEF, 2014/06/02, UNICEF, 2014/04/30, UNICEF, 2014/07/25. OCHA, 2014/08/15). Crimean peninsula to mainland Ukraine. In May, a new legislation under which Ukrainian citizens can move freely between Crimea and the mainland and are Protection only required to hold an identity document was adopted. It also foresees that  As of 13 August, at least 2,119 people had been killed in eastern Ukraine since residents from Crimea will not be penalised for engaging in everyday activities the start of the fighting in April, including civilians, the military and members of that sustain normal life (UNHCR, 2014/05/08, UNICEF, 2014/04/17). the armed groups. Numbers of casualties are rising further due to the continuing  Ukraine has accused Russian forces of laying antipersonnel mines in Crimea, fighting (OCHA, 2014/08/15, OHCHR, 2014/08/07). but has not been able to identify the types or provide photographic or other  Armed groups have increasingly committed human rights abuses, including tangible evidence. Russia has denied use of antipersonnel mines, indicating abductions, torture/ill-treatment, unlawful detentions and killings as well as only trip-flares (also known as signal mines) have been used (ICBL, 2014/04/08). seizure and occupation of public buildings. Abductions have taken place across  In Crimea, harassment and discrimination has reportedly intensified against eastern Ukraine, in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. According to Ukrainian Ukrainian nationals, Crimean Tatars, religious minorities, and activists who government sources, 924 people have been abducted by armed groups, opposed the 16 March referendum. The situation of residents of Crimea has including 811 politicians, journalists, professionals, students and other civilians, overall deteriorated with regard to their right to freedom of expression, peaceful and OSCE monitors, and 113 servicemen, military border guards and security 4

ACAPS Briefing Note assembly, association, religion and belief (OHCHR, 2014/06/15, OHCHR, 2014/05/15, increasing vulnerability of children in the conflict areas. There are indications that UN, 2014/08/08). incidences of Tuberculosis (TB) may increase due to the risk of treatment  An average estimate of 260,000 Roma live in Ukraine. Hate crimes against interruption, lack of access to health services or inadequate treatment (UNICEF, Roma have been reported frequently over the last years, however recent 2014/06/27, OCHA, 2014/08/08, IPS, 2014/08/18). nationalist aggressions have raised concern. In April 2014, houses of Roma  Children experience anxiety, stress, loss of concentration, anger and aggression families have been subject to armed robberies by gunmen in the eastern as a consequence of the conflict. A UNICEF psychosocial assessment of Ukrainian city of Slovyansk. Incidents of violence against Roma have been children in Donetsk oblast indicated that about half of all children aged 7-18 have reported from other cities as well. In August, OCHA reported that the Roma been directly exposed to adverse or threatening events during the current crisis. population displaced from Donbas experiences access restrictions to health and Only a quarter of children aged 13-18 and about a half of children aged 7-12 social service assistance provided by the government (ERRC, 2014/04/30, EC, reportedly received any help or support to deal with these experiences and 2011/04/05, Council of Europe, 2014/04/02, NYT, 2014/04/21, OCHA, 2014/08/06). feelings, indicating the need for psychological support for children. A general  People belonging to the Kazakh and Armenian minorities have reported increase in the demand for psychosocial services for children in eastern Ukraine concerns within their communities that their loyalty to Ukraine may be called into has been reported (UNICEF, 2014/05/15, UNICEF, 2014/04/30, UNICEF, 2014/06/13). question following reports in the media about statements issued by the Governments of Armenia and Kazakhstan in support of the Russian Federation Food security and Livelihoods (Council of Europe, 2014/04/02).  In mid-June, the stopping of social payments transfers to Slavyansk, Kramatorsk  On 19 April, the appearance of threatening anti-Semitic leaflets in Donetsk and Krasny Luch has been reported, due to a large number of armed robberies spread alarm among Jews though pro-Russian forces dismissed the leaflets as and a continued intimidation of bank staff by separatists. In the beginning of a hoax to discredit them (BBC, 2014/04/19). August, banks in Donetsk were reported to be closed. Due to high dependency on governmental social transfers, the vulnerability level of the people that remain Health in the areas affected by unrest is high (UNICEF, 2014/06/13, UNICEF, 2014/06/27, OCHA,  By mid-August, more than 5,000 people have been confirmed wounded through 2014/07/03, IWPR, 2014/08/11). the conflict. The number of people injured in the conflict is likely to be higher  Price increases of agricultural products may affect the ability of households to (OHCHR, 2014/08/07, UN, 2014/08/08, OCHA, 2014/08/15). buy food at affordable prices. FAO/GIEWS reported that domestic prices of  Emergency and primary health care capacities in Donbas have deteriorated due wheat products in June were at record levels, in nominal terms, after sharp to the fighting and are reportedly insufficient. Health services face intermittent increases in April and May. Similarly, wholesale prices of maize have surged electricity and water supply, lack of pharmaceuticals, consumables and human since the beginning of the year and reached all time highs in June. According to resources. An estimated 70% of health personnel have fled the area (OCHA, the source, the increases reflect the strong devaluation of the national currency 2014/08/06, MSF, 2014/05/30, OCHA, 2014/08/05). since early 2014, coupled with the political tensions in the country (FAO/GIEWS,  Human Rights Watch reports attacks on hospitals by explosive weapons in 2014/07/16). Slovyansk, Semyonovka and Krasny Liman that killed at least two medical staff  In Donetsk city, the continuing conflict is causing difficulties in supply for some (HRW, 2014/08/05). supermarkets, as locally-produced items are in short supply. Problems with food  In June, all hospitals except for one in Slovyansk were reported closed due to supply are experienced in Luhansk and essential food only is reportedly interrupted essential supply lines (water and electricity). Pharmaceuticals and available; many supermarkets are closed (IWPR, 2014/08/11, NYT, 2014/08/13, Food medical supplies were limited, with basic support provided by local and and Nutrition Security Section, 2014/08/15, SOS, 2014/08/14). international NGOs and actors (UNICEF, 2014/06/13, UN Country Team Ukraine,  The number of tourists visiting Crimea between January 1 and June 30 has 2014/07/04). decreased by almost one-third compared to the same period last year. Crimeans  Due to the reported pre-crisis low vaccine coverage rates, especially among relying on tourism for their livelihoods have reported great losses (FT, 2014/07/03, children, there is a heightened risk of infectious disease outbreaks, potentially RFE RL, 2014/07/05).

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ACAPS Briefing Note  The growth outlook for the Ukrainian national economy is further deteriorating. Shelter and NFI The Ukrainian currency hryvnia has experienced further depreciation, and has  In mid-August, a total of 35,070 IDPs were accommodated in 1,648 collective lost almost 40% of its value by August against the dollar since the beginning of centres. These include schools that will have to be vacated for the start of the the year (WSJ, 2014/08/12, Globalresearch, 2014/08/13). new school year on 1 September. Around 14,000 IDPs are currently staying in collective centres that are deemed unsuitable for the winter (OCHA, 2014/08/15). Agriculture  Other IDPs are staying in privately owned spaces, such as sanatoriums or  The unrest in Ukraine has not had a significant impact on spring sowing and total hotels. In mid-June, hundreds of displaced people from Slovyansk were reported spring-crop area. In mid-July, FAO GIEWS reported that harvesting of winter to have found shelter in old recreational compounds and a monastery in the cereals, mainly wheat and barley was underway. Analysts expect the 2014 grain nearby city of Svyatogorsk. Other IDPs are being hosted in private homes. About crop to be between 55 and 59 million tonnes, down from an all-time-high harvest 95% of IDPs in the Lviv region reportedly stay with relatives or in private of 63 million tonnes in 2013, mainly as a result of a return to more normal yields apartments (UNHCR, 2014/05/20, Guardian, 2014/06/12, OCHA, 2014/08/15). compared to the bumper yields in 2013. In spite of the conflict, export  On 18 July, the Kirovska substation in Kamennobrodskyi region was damaged commitments were fulfilled. In the new 2014/15 marketing year (July / June), and left Luhansk city without electricity and, as hydraulic power stations stopped total cereal exports were forecast to decrease from the record level of 2013/14 to working as a consequence, without water supplies. Repair works were 27.6 million tonnes. (FAO/GIEWS, 2014/07/16, Reuters, 2014/04/29). hampered by ongoing conflict (UNIAN, 2014/07/18).  Irrigated agriculture in Crimea has reportedly faced water shortages due to  In mid-June, residents in Slavyansk were without electricity and gas for at least a limited water supply from the Ukrainian mainland through the North Crimea week, affecting food storage due to the lack of refrigeration and contributing to a canal that delivers water to Crimea from the river Dnieper. The canal accounts critical food supply situation. Luhansk has reportedly been without power since for 80% of Crimea's freshwater supply. No rice was cultivated, corn planted for the beginning of August (Guardian, 2014/06/12, NYT, 2014/08/13). feed was sharply curtailed and crops like wheat and barley were stunted. With  Since the beginning of August there are technical problems with mobile phone Russian banks not fully established, farmers have struggled to get credit for networks in the Donetsk area and many people in Luhansk have no mobile essentials like seed and fertiliser (OHCHR, 2014/05/15, Guardian, 2014/05/09, NYT, phone or landline connection anymore (IWPR, 2014/08/11, Guardian, 2014/08/15, SOS, 2014/07/07, BBC, 2014/04/25). 2014/08/14, KyivPost, 2014/08/16).

WASH  Water supply in eastern Ukraine is hampered by destruction of, or damage to Information Gaps water facilities, leaving the population without or only limited access to safe drinking water. An artillery shell destroyed equipment in a pumping station near  Education: Ahead of the new school year, there is an information gap on how Slavyansk in the beginning of June and halted the water supply through the 130- many school-going children have been displaced and to where, how many kilometre long North Donetsk-Donetsk canal that ensures the water supply in the teachers are available and how many children have had the opportunity to sit Slavyansk area. The ensuing shut-off of mains supplies left several parts of their end of year exams. Donetsk oblast running short of water including the towns of ,  WASH: Water infrastructure has been damaged during fighting and the lack of Dokuchaevsk and Selidovo, and parts of Konstantinovka. Water constraints electricity has caused pumping stations in some areas to stop working. The have also been reported from a variety of locations inside Donetsk oblast not availability and access to safe drinking water needs further assessment. directly affected by fighting (IWPR, 2014/06/17, UNICEF, 2014/06/13).  Health: The effects of the conflict on the availability and accessibility of health  Access to, and supply of potable drinking water is limited in Donetsk city due to services, medical supplies and vaccination campaigns require monitoring. fighting. Luhansk has reportedly been without water or a sewage system since  LFS: Food supply, food shortages and the effect of the crisis on livelihoods are the beginning of August (OCHA, 2014/08/06, NYT, 2014/08/13). to be monitored.

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ACAPS Briefing Note  Shelter and NFI: The need for shelter repair of returnees and for NFIs needs to Distribution of native languages in Ukraine be established. Further information on actual IDP numbers and their shelter and NFI needs is necessary. The availability of electricity supplies needs to be established.  Protection: Monitoring of human rights violations in eastern Ukraine and Crimea and treatment of minority groups is also necessary.

Drivers of current conflict in Ukraine

 The current tensions in Ukraine mirror a political divide between the East and the West of the country that existed before the outbreak of the crisis and is illustrated through the maps below (Source: CNN 2014/03):

2010 Presidential election results

Eastern Ukraine  Pro-Russian separatists want independence from Ukraine: Following the outcome of the referendum on Crimea, the pro-Russian activists established a People’s Republic of Donetsk in mid-April 2014, taking control of a number of government buildings in several cities in eastern Ukraine. (UN, 2014/04/16). A number of incidents continued to occur between April and July in the region, especially in the cities of Slovyyansk, Donetsk and Luhansk.  Russian Federation supporting pro-Russian separatists: Despite Russia rejecting such claims, it has been widely reported that the pro-Russian separatists are being supported by Russia in eastern Ukraine (The Huffington Post, 2014/04/17, BBC, 2014/05/30, BBC, 2014/04/30).  Referendums, rejected by the government in Kiev and held by pro-Russian activists in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts on 11 May, resulted in a self-rule vote for sovereignty from Ukraine (Aljazeera, 2014/05/12).  Continued fighting in and around major eastern Ukrainian cities: Following the end of an agreed ceasefire, in late June, heavy fighting took place throughout the region, including in the cities of Donetsk, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Slovyansk was retaken by government forces on 6 July, easing the burden on the population that had remained in the city. In late July, the fighting concentrated on the densely populated urban centres of Donetsk and Luhansk, increasing the humanitarian needs in these areas (NYT, 2014/07/21, BBC, 2014/06/23, DW, 2014/07/06). 7

ACAPS Briefing Note  The conflict situation as of 13 August in eastern Ukraine is depicted in the map below (Source: NYT, 2014/08/13)

Crimea Ethnic groups according to the 2001 Census Map created by MapAction (2014)

 Crimean Tatars' unease with the Russian Federation: In the second half of Crimea the 1980s, the Crimean Tatars, deported by Stalin to Central Asia in 1944,  The majority of people living in Crimea are of Russian origin (58 %), followed by began to return to their homeland, and since the Ukrainian independence, the Ukrainians (24 %) and the Crimean Tatars, a Muslim minority who number Crimean Tatars have identified most closely with the Ukrainian population of about 280,000 (approximately 12 percent of the region’s population) (FT, Crimea, rather than with Russia. They support the pro-European Ukrainian 2014/03/09). national politics, as they feel that a move towards the EU better serves their  Ukraine does not intend to give up on Crimea: In his inaugural speech as the political, economic and social objectives (e.g. language, education, religion and new Ukrainian President, Poroshenko declared that the country would not give land use rights) (RUSI, 2014/03/12). up Crimea. In July, Ukraine's new Defence Minister Valeriy Heletey reinforced  Prior to the referendum, about 500 people from Crimea - Ukrainians and Tatars Ukraine's intention not to give up Crimea and said that there would be "a victory –fled to western Ukraine, and Ukrainians in Crimea were reportedly afraid to go parade in Ukraine's ". The Ukrainian government also announced the out of their homes for fear they would be attacked by pro-Russian groups. Pro- plan to create a new ministry for Crimean affairs, and proposed the head of the Russian protesters and Crimean Tatars have clashed on various occasions Mejlis, the representative and executive body of the Crimean Tatar community before the referendum (FT, 2014/03/09, Globalissues.org, 2014/03/14, DW, 2014/03/16). recognised by Ukraine, Refat Chubarov, as head of the Ministry (Radio Free  Human Rights issues in Crimea: After the referendum, concerns regarding the Europe, 2014/07/22, Guardian, 2014/06/07, UNPO, 2014/07/16, Moscow Times, 2014/07/06). safety and access to rights of Crimean Tatars have remained. Russia’s

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ACAPS Briefing Note President Putin declared after the referendum that the interests of all of Crimea’s Relevant Stakeholders in Ukraine ethnic groups would be respected. Tatar representatives expressed concern that  The is the party of the ousted President . on 11 April, authorities in Crimea rushed the adoption of a new constitution. The party professes to defend and uphold the rights of ethnic Russians and Human rights concerns about the total lack of public debate as well as the speakers of the Russian language in Ukraine. After Yanukovych’s escape, the exclusion of Crimean Tatars from the drafting process were raised. Concerns party moved into opposition and many deputies left the party. The party’s also remain regarding citizenship issues, specifically, that those not accepting candidate for the 25 May elections, , came sixth with 3% of Russian citizenship would reportedly face many obstacles in having their votes. The party is currently led by Borys Kolesnikov (ECFR, 2014/04/07, Aljazeera, property and land rights, access to healthcare and enjoyment of other civil and 2014/03/03, Kievpost, 2014/02/24, CVK, 2014/05/25). political rights guaranteed. An increasing number of reports about on-going  The UDAR (the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform) party is headed harassment towards Crimean Tatars, and other residents who did not support by former boxing champion . The party runs a pro-European and the referendum in Crimea is pointed out by the United Nations High anticorruption platform. Klitschko was vocal during the protests in Kiev and Commissioner for Human Rights in May. In mid-May, the house of the Crimean helped arrange a deal with parliament to hold presidential elections in May 2014. Tatar leader Mustafa Jemilev, barred by Russia from entering the Russian In late March, Klitschko withdrew his bid for president in Ukraine and instead Federation and his native Crimea, was searched by police. In June, it was won the election for the mayor of Kiev held in May (ForeignAffairs, 2014/01/21, reported that the Crimean Tatars would appeal to the European Court of Human AlJazeera, 2014/03/03, DW, 2014/03/31, Reuters, 2014/05/26). Rights alleging that their rights had been violated in Crimea. In the beginning of  Klitschko had declared his support for the independent candidate, Petro July, Refat Chubarov, the current leader of the Crimean Tatar Meijlis was Poroshenko, a billionaire who leads the Solidarity party and who sided with the banned from returning home for a period of five years by the peninsula's opposition during the Maidan protests. Poroshenko won the presidential prosecutor. (OHCHR, 2014/05/15, UN, 2014/04/16, LA Times, 2014/03/18, IWPR, 2014/05/16, elections with 54.7% of the vote in the first round (Radio Ukraine International, Moscow Times, 2014/07/06, AA, 2014/206/26, UNHCHR, 2014/06/15, Guardian, 2014/03/13, 2014/05/29, DW, 2014/03/31). Council of Europe, 2014/04/02, UNPO, 2014/05/15, UNPO, 2010/02).  Former Prime Minister leads the Fatherland Party. The  Before Crimea was absorbed into the Russian Federation, the Russian military party advocates for European values and was one of the parties most active in had its Black Sea Fleet base in Crimea with the fleet headquarters and naval the Kiev protests. In the presidential elections in May 2014, Yulia Tymoshenko infantry brigade headquarters located in Sevastopol. There were also Russian won 12,8% of the votes and came second after Petro Poroshenko. The party's coastal missile regiments and active bases in Crimea, including air bases. Until Arseny Yatsenyuk is the current Prime Minister of Ukraine. At the end of July, he the annexation of Crimea, the port at Sevastopol had been leased by Russia. In resigned as Prime Minister after the Svoboda and UDAR parties withdrew from late March, the Russian military seized all Ukrainian military bases in Crimea the Parliament's majority coalition and Parliament failed to pass infrastructure and Ukraine ordered its troops to withdraw from the peninsula (Janes, 2014/03/13, reconstruction and military funding bills. Ukraine's government voted to reject his Reuters, 2009/07/14, Washington Post, 2014/03/01, BBC, 2014/03/24, WSJ, 2014/03/24). resignation in a confidence vote (ForeignAffairs, 2014/01/21, AlJazeera, 2014/03/03, Radio  The current situation under Russian rule has resulted in changes to everyday life Ukraine International, 2014/05/29, Aljazeera, 2014/07/31, Euronews, 2014/07/31). in Crimea, with banks closing and running out of money, many customers facing  Svoboda (Freedom) is a nationalist political party whose highly disciplined trouble to get money because few banks are operating, and with food prices structure was considered to provide important organisational support for the soaring (Guardian, 2014/05/09, NYT, 2014/07/07). protests in Kiev. The party is allied with euro-sceptic far-right parties within the  Access to Crimea from Ukraine for supplies is constrained. Road transportation European Union, such as the French National Front. Svoboda is frequently from mainland Ukraine experiences many border checks established by the accused of anti-Semitism, which it denies. Svoboda's support base is in western Crimean authorities and long delays at the ferry crossing in Kerch. From 15 July Ukraine, traditionally the heartland of nationalists. In the east and south of onwards, international shipping is prohibited from entering the ports of Ukraine, the party is widely seen as extremist. Svoboda’s ran Evpatoria, Kerch, Sevastopol, Theodosia and Yalta on the Crimea peninsula as a candidate in the May elections, winning 1.16% of the vote (Radio Ukraine (Lloyd's List, 2014/07/15, Gard, 2014/07/17, RUSI, 2014/04). International, 2014/05/29, Economist, 2014/01/06, BBC, 2014/02/26, FT, 2014/03/09)

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ACAPS Briefing Note  The is a radical nationalist opposition group said to be a key factor announced cuts to its budget for social issues, healthcare, and agriculture in behind the violent protests in Kiev. According to a Right Sector leader, the order to support the armed forces. In July, a 1.5% war tax was announced by organisation was set up in late November 2013 and includes several small ultra- the government in order to fund the military actions (Janes, 2014/05/12, BBC, right groups, among them Trident, , White Hammer and 2014/02/28, IISS, 2014/03/05, IISS, 2014/03/05, Aljazeera, 2014/07/31, Euronews, 2014/07/31, FP, Ukrainian National Assembly-Ukrainian National Self-Defence. The Right Sector 2014/07/30). does not associate itself with the Ukrainian parliamentary opposition parties, neither do most of the activists support the idea of Ukraine joining the EU. Mr. Scenarios Yarosh, the current leader of the Sector, has announced that the Sector's

paramilitary unit would not be disbanded in order to maintain a deterrent against The scenario development for Ukraine was informed by lessons learned from other Russia The Right Sector has been accused by Russia of being involved in anti- crises in recent years where Russian forces were involved. It has been noted that Russian violence in eastern Ukraine (BBC, 2014/04/18, Guardian, 2014/05/15, NYT, Russia's recent actions in Crimea follow a pattern similar to that of its interventions 2014/03/11, Reuters, 2014/03/07, BBC, 2014/01/21, SMH, 2014/03/28, BBC, 2014/02/01). in other parts of the former Soviet space over the past 25 years. This pattern, though  In some towns, well organised and armed people formed so-called “self- it varies in terms of specific application, broadly consists of three categories: the defence” units and declared separatist motives. The 11 March referendum on organisation of ethnic Russian or pro-Russia social and political groups and so-called self-rule was held by the self-proclaimed “Donetsk People’s Republic” movements; the deployment or support of informal or unofficial security forces in key and “Luhansk People’s Republic”, two armed groups with separatist motives areas; and finally, the launching of formal military operations. Examples are: involved in obstructions before the 25th May Presidential elections, and

responsible for intimidations and violence. The “Donetsk People’s Republic” has 1. The Transdniestria region in Moldova unilaterally declared independence from recognised the presence of citizens of the Russian Federation, including from Moldova in 1990. The region with a population of half a million held a referendum Chechnya and other republics of the North Caucasus, within their armed groups in 2006, in which 98% of voters opted for joining Russia. Full annexation has not (OHCHR, 2014/06/15, OHCHR, 2014/04/15). happened though the region is to a large extent effectively under Russian control.  Other pro-Russian organised militias with separatists motives and / or targeting Long negotiations over status, coupled with a steady hollowing out of the Ukraine’s military assets/troops include the increasingly influential Vostok structures of the state and the consolidation of de facto Russian control of the Battalion on the outskirts of Donetsk city, who took part in the most recent region in political, economic and military terms are ongoing. This scenario, even if violent fighting. This separatist group allegedly bears the same name as a likely when transferred to the Ukraine situation, is not expected to have a strong Chechen unit sponsored by the Russian military intelligence service, GRU. humanitarian impact and therefore was not developed within this document. The There are also the “Army of the Southeast” in Luhansk and a militia in Slavyansk case of the Transdniestria region will be monitored closely as Russia's presence led by alleged Russian intelligence agent who is believed by some to and latest potential military build up in Transdniestria, combined with its other work for the GRU. The GRU has also allegedly supported operations in Crimea political and economic levers, bear similarities with the current situation in (Guardian, 2014/06/06, BBC, 2014/07/22, StrategyPage, 2014/03/25). Ukraine.  Ukraine has an overall military force of about 130,000 troops against Russia’s 2. In the Georgian region of South Ossetia, tensions between Tbilisi and Moscow 845,000 troops. At the end of July an estimated 35,000 were in the area of resulted in a five-day war in 2008. The Kremlin recognised both South Ossetia conflict. Ukraine’s armed forces continue to operate mainly Soviet-era and another separatist territory, Abkhazia, as independent countries and equipment, which is in need of upgrade or replacement. Defence spending has stationed thousands of troops in the countries. They function as Russian been around 1% of GDP in recent years; the services have been inadequately protectorates. This historical event was considered relevant for consideration in financed and defence reforms have been significantly under-funded. However, the current situation. Ukrainian forces are considered better-trained than Russians, have been engaged over the last decade in international peacekeeping missions and In public remarks made on 17 April 2014, Russia’s President Putin asserted established close contacts with western counterparts. In May 2014, Ukraine Russia’s claim to New Russia, an area of Ukraine that used to be part of the Russian

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ACAPS Briefing Note empire with an extent as shown in the map below. Tensions over pro-Russian Protracted Civil War in Ukraine sentiments flared in Odessa in April 2014 (AlJazeera, 2014/04/24). The New Russia Low High claim referring specifically to Ukrainian territory has been considered as relevant in Affected Population Probability level X the scenario formulation. 10,400,000 Impact level X

Core  Tensions between government forces and separatists continue and Assumptions conflict is intensifying;  Negotiations with different factions acting in Ukraine fail; and ceasefire agreements are broken;  Ukrainian lacks strength to reverse territory gains made by separatists;  Violent clashes further disrupt daily life and hamper industrial and agricultural production, enhancing the economic downturn;  Displacement occurs throughout the country and across international borders;  Diplomatic solutions are not effective;  Human rights violations occur, homes and livelihoods are destroyed.

Context &  Internal displacement increases; Impact  Population movements into neighbouring countries continue;  Further deterioration of the economy and the loss of livelihoods due to disruptions in industrial and agricultural production;  Increasing numbers of casualties;  Lack of access to medical facilities and food, electricity and clean water for civilians;  Increasing lack of basic food supplies and poverty among civilians;  Social tensions between host communities and displaced people arise. Source: NYT, 2014/04/17 Operational  Insecurity, targeted attacks and increased violence limit access. Three scenarios are further developed and served as a basis for data preparedness Constraints  Negotiation with potentially many different antagonistic stakeholder work: Ethnic repressions in Crimea associated with forced displacement and two and activist groups; extreme scenarios contemplating the invasion of the country by Russian troops and  Check points complicate access. a civil war between nationalist, pro-Russian and other factions in the country. Protection, Cash, Food, Livelihoods, Shelter and NFI, Education, Priority needs Health.

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ACAPS Briefing Note Military invasion of Eastern and Southern Ukraine Economic and political sanctions fail to change status quo Low High Low High Affected Population Probability level X Affected Population Probability level X

10,400,000 Impact level X 250,000 Impact level X Core  Takeover and occupation of regions in eastern and southern Ukraine by Core  Russia does not react to economic and political sanctions imposed Assumptions Russian forces occur; Assumptions by the European Union and the United States in the short-term;  Ukrainian military not able to fight back invasion; sanctions on Russia are not effective in the longer term, economic  International sanctions against Russia are expanded; threats are put up counter sanctions by Russia affect Europe strongly; by international community but no military reaction by NATO is triggered;  The Ukrainian economy is further under pressure by the conflict, war  Civil population and Ukrainian nationalist movements show resistance fatigue among the population sets in, the Ukrainian government against the takeover, violent protests and clashes with military and weakens in the face of internal and external challenges and falls separatists occur; apart;  A high number of casualties, injured people and IDPs due to military  The United States and Europe do not agree on a long-term stable takeover occur, livelihoods are disrupted, shelters destroyed; solution for Ukraine and on measures aiming to achieve such a  Continuation of, and new internal displacement and refuge-seeking in solution; neighbouring countries;  Hostilities in eastern Ukraine continue on a smaller scale;  Further disruptions to gas, water and electricity supply are experienced  Polarisation and social tensions occur between Tatars and the as well as a shortage of medical supplies. ethnic-Russian population of Crimea;

Context &  Affected areas: eastern and southern Ukraine; Context &  Further displacement in areas of fighting in eastern Ukraine occurs; Impact  Affected groups: Local population and specifically non-Russian Impact  The number of casualties and injured people rises; communities; host communities of IDPs from Crimea and eastern  Human rights violations continue to occur in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine; harassment of Crimean Tatars in Crimea continues;  Civilian casualties and massive internal displacement to western parts of  Reduced economic activities throughout eastern Ukraine, increased Ukraine; poverty and reduced livelihood opportunities among population due  Spill over effects of insecurity to western parts of the country and into to instability. neighbouring countries to the west;  Disruption of gas pipelines from Russia into Europe, impacting on gas Operational  Insecurity limits access. prices; Constraints  Human rights violations and ethnically motivated attacks;  Further deterioration of economy and the loss of livelihoods; lack of food, Priority needs Protection, Livelihood, Shelter and NFI water and medical supplies;  Increase of prices of basic commodities.

Operational  Insecurity, bureaucratic obstacles imposed by Russians, targeted attacks Constraints and increased violence limit access;  Access dependent on ceasefire agreements monitored by international observers;  Check points, restriction of access to aid. Priority Protection, Cash, Food, Livelihoods, Health, Shelter and NFI needs

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