FCF Bank Monitor Q2 2021
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FCF Bank Monitor Q2 2021 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary The FCF Bank FCF Bank Monitor Recipients Monitor is a standardized report is a comprehensive quarterly analysis of the historic and current The FCF Bank Monitor targets the following audience: on Credit Default spreads of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and ratings for banks most ■ Financial Institutions Swap spreads and active in the German and Austrian corporate lending market. The ratings of German analysis provides the short-term, medium-term and long-term market ■ Investors and foreign banks, view on such banks’ credit default risks and is an indicator for banks’ ■ Corporates with existing bank financings and with further financing most active in the (re-)financing costs in the capital markets needs German and Austrian midcap market and is a Selection of Financial Institutions Availability reference for investors, corporates The selection of financial institutions is based on FCF’s financing The FCF Bank Monitor is available on FCF’s website at 'www.fcf.de' and professionals expertise in the German midcap market and includes the most relevant institutions with respect to funding volumes in the German midcap market More advanced, Data detailed and / or ■ Only institutions with actively traded CDS instruments are included customized reports All input data is provided by S&P Capital IQ and is not independently are available upon verified by FCF. Ratio and multiple calculations are driven based on request Customized Information the input data available. For additional information and disclaimer, please refer to the last page More advanced, detailed and / or customized reports can be ordered individually, offering subscribers the possibility to customize the following criteria (among others): To recommend colleagues to be added to the mailing list, kindly send ■ Inclusion of international / US institutions an email with the respective contact information ■ Selection / deselection of specific institutions ■ Specific solvency analysis (equity or debt analysis) ■ Monthly updates If you have questions, comments or ideas, please do not hesitate to contact us 3 FCF OVERVIEW FCF Overview FCF seeks to Who We Are Capital Markets Capabilities and Services provide its clients ■ Specialized Investment Bank and Financing Specialist ■ Venture capital ■ Private equity with financing Private / ■ Advising public and private small- / midcap companies Pre-IPO ■ Growth capital solutions ■ Advisor for structuring and placement of financing transactions: ■ Initial Public Offering pursued in tandem) (i) at the lowest (IPO) / Capital increase ■ Private investment in Equity Public cost, − All instruments: Unbiased approach to all available corporate ■ Dual-track (IPO and Public Equity (PIPE) financing instruments (no product selling approach), allowing alternative transaction ■ Block trade (ii) with the highest for customized financing structures flexibility, ■ Receivables / Factoring / ■ Working capital / − All investors: Close and trusted relationships with senior Short-term Asset-backed securities Revolving credit facility (iii) in the shortest executives of virtually all relevant equity and debt investors Debt ■ Borrowing base / ■ Guarantees / Inventory Letter of credit period of time, − Fast process: Process management skills and direct / personal (iv) with the highest access to institutional debt and equity investors enable fast ■ Bank loan facility / ■ Promissory note Syndicated loans (Schuldscheindarlehen) closing proba- transactions Debt ■ Sale-and-lease-back / ■ Second lien / Long-term Leasing Subordinated loans bility, and with Debt ■ More than 100 transactions with a total placement volume in ■ Corporate bonds (public / ■ Venture debt (v) financing excess of EUR 4.0 billion since foundation in 2005 private placement) ■ Unitranches partners that ■ High yield / PIK bond ■ More than 15 professionals headquartered in Munich integrate well Hybrid ■ Mezzanine capital ■ Convertible bonds into their strategy Selected Transactions European Investment European Investment Real Estate Sale & European Investment Family Office Advisory European Investment Capital Increase Syndicated Loan Factoring Facility Factoring Facility Factoring Facility Round Extension Bank Debt Facility Bank Debt Facility Lease-Back Bank Debt Facility & Acquisition Bank Debt Facility Financing Facilities [confidential] [confidential] Quantum Systems Quantum Systems WOCO Franz Josef KmB Technologie SNP Schneider- Hammerer Aluminium Hydrogenious LOHC Asamer Baustoffe AG Food Company Immunic AG Homegoods Company ROBART GmbH GmbH GmbH Wolf Holding GmbH GmbH Neureither & Partner SE Industries Group Technologies GmbH EUR 10m [confidential] EUR 80m EUR 25m EUR 45m [confidential] EUR 30m > EUR 20m ~ EUR 25m ~ EUR 80m [confidential] [confidential] June 2021 May 2021 May 2021 May 2021 March 2021 February 2021 December 2020 December 2020 October 2020 June 2020 February 2020 December 2019 Guarantee & Debt Syndicated Loan, Capital Increase and Syndicated Loan European Investment Transaction Support Capital Increase Factoring Facility Investment in Acquisition Financing Bilateral Loan Facility Capital Increase Facilities Factoring and Inventory Round Extension Facility Bank Debt Facility Leasing [confidential] [confidential] Advisor to AkrosA Hydrogenious LOHC Doppstadt pfenning logistics GSE Group pfenning logistics Business Service Leading Virtual PCM Rail.One AG Vasopharm GmbH Synapticon GmbH Private Equity censhare AG Technologies GmbH Familienholding GmbH Group Acquisition by Finexx Group Provider Reality Company GmbH & Co. KG ~ EUR 20m EUR 17m EUR 80m > EUR 10m [confidential] > EUR 10m > EUR 15m [confidential] > EUR 10m < EUR 10m EUR 25m November 2019 July 2019 July 2019 June 2019 June / January 2019 March 2019 December 2018 December 2018 April 2018 April 2018 April 2018 December 2017 5 FCF Facts & Figures More than Close to More than More than # 1 15 100 100 4 bn financing advisor in investment banking years of aggregated, completed total volume of advised & Germany, purely focusing professionals investment banking / transactions closed transactions since on corporate financing financing experience 2005 transactions More than More than Network 2000 25 120 Leading access to more than contacts to family offices international conferences articles and research advisor for financing 4000 international and ultra-high-net-worth organized papers published transactions with EIB in financial institutions individuals worldwide the DACH region 6 KEY FINDINGS Key Findings The FCF Bank Key Findings (Q2 2021) Monitor highlights the key develop- ■ The overall market environment during Q2 2021 showed a stable sidewards movement with CDS spreads at pre-COVID-19 levels (in line ments of German with Q4 2019). Ongoing fiscal and monetary easing and accelerating vaccinations continue to have stabilizing effects on markets, which and foreign banks have gained trust in governments and institutions within the EU to support the economy most active in the ■ CDS spreads of German banks have trended downwards and closed the gap to foreign banks, reflecting the general market situation that German and foreign banks are still perceived to be slightly more solvent than their German peers. The main drivers for the tightening gap were the Austrian mid-cap strong improvement of CDS spreads of BayernLB and Helaba financing market ■ Q2 2021 saw the first rating downgrades since 5 quarters as rating agencies begin to update their assessments based on 2020 (post- The FCF Bank COVID) financials, slow digitalization and challenging interest rate environment. The DZ Bank, Helaba and HSBC experienced rating Monitor outlines downgrades by one notch each several key factors that should be ■ The FCF league table of German and foreign banks operating in the German and Austrian midcap segments, based on CDS spreads considered when across 1-, 5- and 10-year terms and major ratings, gives an indication on the banks expected future stability and crisis resistance: selecting banks − ING (score: 70.0) heads the league table followed by SMBC (score: 66.0) and SEB (score: 64.5) during a (re)finan- − HCOB (score: 9.5) completes the league table ranking behind NordLB (score: 10.0) and UniCredit (score: 12.0) cing of existing financial liabilities ■ The variation in CDS spreads and ratings highlights the importance of considering the perceived solvency of the bank prior to selecting an institution as a lending bank or transaction counterparty: − Across 1-year CDS spreads, the lowest CDS spread lies at 6.0 bps (SMBC) whilst the highest spread lies at 46.9 bps (DZ Bank), 7.8x higher − Across 5-year CDS spreads, the lowest CDS spread lies at 22.4 bps (ING) whilst the highest spread lies at 76.6 bps (NordLB), 3.4x higher − Across 10-year CDS spreads, the lowest CDS spread lies at 36.6 bps (ING) whilst the highest spread lies at 97.9 bps (UniCredit), 2.7x higher − Across S&P ratings, the highest rating is AA- (BayernLB, LBBW) whilst the lowest rating is BBB (HCOB, UniCredit), implying a spread of 5 rating notches ■ The relationship between backward- and forward-looking indicators has strengthened over the last quarter, however, is still significantly weaker than 5 quarters prior, shown by a low correlation and explanatory power (R²) of 18% vs 40% in Q4/19. Overall, this implies a need for rating updates to adopt to current risk sentiment shown in CDS spreads ■ German banks - by number of institutions - show a higher probability of a future rating downgrade, indicated by higher CDS