Hands on Deck--You Can Make a Difference!

All Hands on Deck--You Can Make A Difference!

A Solutions Focused Course Using Systems Thinking and Stella Modeling Tools to Address Climate Change with Green Work!

A Five Week Course Designed for Upward Bound Students in 2019 University of Massachusetts Boston: Beta Pilot---Summer 2019 Funded by NSF Grant #1759163

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Dear Upward Bound Students,

Each generation is faced with new challenges and new stories that define an era. As students in 2019, your generation is faced with an especially deep challenge of climate change and environmental degradation. But each challenge is also an opportunity.

This course is designed to be a co-learning education experience to foster our increased understanding of the problem and help us develop the skills to work together to address the serious challenge faced by global climate change. It’s not something that any one of us can solve alone, or any one state or country can solve. It is a challenge to which each of us working together on all levels (self, family, neighborhood, city, state, country, world) has something to contribute and can make a difference. This challege also intersects with related issues of poverty, inequality, civil rights and the rights of all species.

This 5 week pilot course is designed to immerse you in systems thinking as applied to your own personal life journey, and your role in global and local climate and sustainability issues. In this course you will develop skill using Stella Software a powerful tool for modeling solutions and prepare a systems model presentation to share with your community. Through systems thinking and technology tools we will explore together the critical issues and potential solutions that touch each of us where ever we are and what ever our interest for future jobs or careers.

As this is a Beta Pilot of this course, thoughout the 5 weeks we will be asking for your feedback about the course to help improve it. We will also be asking you to complete certain surveys that will help us make the course better for next year. Thanks for your help,

Thank you ---We hope you enjoy this UB educational experience!

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Getting Started with All

Hands on Deck

Cloud and Surface Temperature Data combined in image from NASA’s Terra Satellite

This guidebook although specifically designed for high school participants in the Upward Bound summer program can be used by anyone who wants to actively learn about and engage in the process of understanding and practicing Systems Thinking Habits and modeling to help address one of the key problems of our times—that of global and local climate change. Through 20 integrated lessons, we engage in “empathetic science inquiry” and explore positive possible solutions that can be applied both globally and locally by each person.

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The overall student skills that you will be developing by completing this course are:

 Knowledge of systems concepts and habits  Understanding of historical and current World Climate issues through simulation and role play  Knowledge of the concept climate balance and the carbon cycle  Awareness of climate Solutions and how to apply them including the role that your actions play  Skill in using Stella Architect https://www.iseesystems.com/store/products/stella-architect.aspx modeling tool for modeling problem solving Solutions of the potential impact of a Solution of interest to you  Knowledge of Green Jobs that are Related to Climate Solutions  Importance of collaboration to address climate issues  Increased skill in written and oral communication about what you are learning through project and product based activities

The guidebook is designed as an active-project based hands-on course with students at the center. The co-learning lessons are designed to be implemented in a collaborative group setting with each of you contributing your diverse talents and skills. There will be a mix of group and individual projects to complete but each lesson will require each of your active and engaged participation to be successfully completed. Some of the lessons may be challenging, but your Upward Bound teacher/facilitator or mentor will always be there to facilitate and help you successfully complete each of the 20 modules. We also aim to have some fun along the way!

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The co-learning lessons will contain the following as appropriate:

 Introduction to topic and overview  Objective and learning goals  Time required (usually 60 minutes)  Links to other lessons  Reflection and discussion questions  Materials/technology needed  Writing or oral sharing  Additional resources with links  Data tables, lab sheets, worksheets, guide sheets as applicable

A key focus of systems thinking is developing your knowledge and skills needed to engage throughout your life in what some have called “empathetic inquiry.” Being able to expand your thinking to see interconnections and “take the place of other persons, species and elements in the universe to whom you are in fact intimately related. This is a co-learning project in which we the developers of this curriculum, your Upward Bound teachers, and you as an Upward Bound participant in this the summer of 2019 are on a shared journey to help address critical issues of our times together!

Welcome aboard and ALL HANDS ON DECK!

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Course Outline

Unit 1: Understanding Systems

 Lesson 1-1: What is a System?  Lesson 1-2: Habits of a Systems Thinker  Lesson 1-3: Stock-Flow Maps  Lesson 1-4: Feedback

Unit 2: World Climate Simulation and Role Play Experience

 Lesson 2-1: Introduction to World Climate  Lesson 2-2: The World Climate Simulation (2 hour lesson)  Lesson 2-3: Build Your Own Roadmap to Climate Success

Unit 3: Introduction to Stella, Carbon Cycle Model Role Play and Drawdown

 Lesson 3-1: Introduction to Stella with Simple Model of

CO2 Emissions and Removals  Lesson 3-2&3: An Empathetic Inquiry Role Play Deeper Dive into Modeling the Carbon Cycle in Stella (2 hours—can divide into 2 segments)  Lesson 3-4: Putting Drawdown Solutions into Your Models

Unit 4—Solutions, Multisolving, Let’s Do This, Becoming an Expert

 Lesson 4-1: Bring Drawdown Home, Selecting Solutions of Interest and Specifying in Your Model

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 Lesson 4-2: Multisolving  Lesson 4-3: Let’s Do This  Lesson 4-4: Research—Becoming an Expert Around Your Solution

Unit 5: All Hands on Deck---Sharing Your Model and Your Story with Your Community

 Lesson 5-1: You Can Make a Difference  Lesson 5-2: Bringing It all Together  Lesson 5-3&4: Presentations

Pre-survey is at https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/PreSurvey/index.html

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Unit 1 Lesson 1-1: What is a System?

Overview: The Systems Thinker

Welcome to your systems thinking journey! This journey toward clearer thinking and new ideas, starts with the same terms and tools of systems theory that scientists and engineers use to meet the challenges of complex problems. With your first steps as a systems thinker, you will apply a Next Generation Science and Engineering Practice (1. Asking Questions and Defining Problems) to examine systems theory and relationships. Along the way, you will explore many familiar, meaningful connections vital to your thinking and learning. Your understanding of the systems at work in your life affects your decisions, your actions and your life choices, shaping your own journey’s future.

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“Systems Thinking is a vantage point from which you see a whole, a web of relationships, rather than focusing only on the detail of any particular piece. Events are seen in the larger context of a pattern that is unfolding over time.” (High Performance Systems)

Objectives and Learning Goals

 Identify the four components of a system.  Connect the four components of a system to a system of personal interest.  Recognize your role in impacting a system.

Time and Materials

For this lesson you will use:

 The internet and a video at https://az.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/syslit14- sci-sys-bigidea/what-are-systems/  A large space to participate in the “The Systems Game.” Your teacher will facilitate this game.  An on-line or flash drive space to place your work from this lesson as well as future lessons (Your teacher will direct you about setting this up)  Access to a “Twitter” account for posting

This lesson is designed to be completed in about 60 minutes. You are always encouraged to spend some time outside of class thinking about the lesson.

Reflection Questions (these are key questions in the “background of the lesson”. Keep them in mind as you proceed through the lesson. Often they appear again at the end of the lesson in an activity or discussion)

 What are the major systems of which you are a part?  How do you connect or fit into to your systems?  How do you influence or impact your systems?

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Integration and Scaffolding (How Does this Lesson Fit into the Overall Course?)

This is the first lesson of Unit 1 in a 5 week co-learning course. Unit 1, focuses on the concept of a system and habits of a systems thinker. In this Unit the foundation for the subsequent lessons is built. Although the iStronG All Hands on Deck individual lessons are designed to be complete in themselves, each lesson is also designed and ordered to build on the previous lessons, to give you the tools to fully engage in subsequent lessons, and to form an integrated whole.

The intent of the curriculum is that together with your teacher and peers you will make a “co-learning scaffold” with strong “bridges” from which to launch a renewed process of co-creating knowledge and understanding of the world around you. It is the hope that these “learnings” will help each of you contribute in your own way to addressing the key issues of these times. Key Activities

 First watch this short video at https://az.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/syslit14-sci-sys-bigidea/what- are-systems/ Systems educator Linda Booth Sweeney considers what is a system and what’s not, what systems do, and why understanding systems is important. Systems and systems models are a cross-cutting concept in the Next Generation Science Standards. This resource is part of the Systems Literacy Collection.  Understanding the Role of Connection. For this activity you will participate in a “simulation” by playing the “Systems Game”, This tool is a hands on activity developed by REOS https://reospartners.com/ that is designed to help you experience some of the characteristics of systems and what it takes to create systemic change.

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o Your teacher will direct you through this game. o As you participate and complete the game, describe what happens in the simulation and discuss what the interactions reveal about a system.  “What is a System?” On your own, read Lesson 1-1-A: Guide Sheet for What is a System? This Guide Sheet discusses Four Components of a System: 1. Elements or Parts 2. Interdependencies 3. Dynamics 4. Purpose

In groups of four, prepare to share a “3-2-1” review (3 things I learned, 2 things I found interesting, 1 question I have) of your assigned component with your group. Enter your thoughts in your electronic or paper Notebook. If on paper be sure to take a snapshot and save to your on- line portfolio folder.

 Thinking about “My System”. Individually, select a system that interests you, for example your: family, Upward Bound summer program, faith community, school, or sports team. Using Lesson 1-1-B: Worksheet Sheet for “My System of Interest” Identify the key components of the system you selected. Add your responses to the following questions to your worksheet. 1. How do you connect or fit into to your system? 2. How do you influence or impact your system?

Writing and Sharing

In your group of four, share your systems of interest. Be sure to include all four components of a system.

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For each group, List similarities and differences about your systems of interest for a later, whole class discussion.

Take a picture of your Worksheet and put it in your Course Portfolio.

Check Out

End of Lesson Activity and Reflection

Twitter Board – Compose and post a tweet summarizing what you’ve learned from this lesson about what is system is?

As you CHECK OUT, be sure that you have saved a digital copy of your work to your folder. You can do this by taking a picture of your Worksheet and put it in your Course portfolio. You may also complete the worksheets in the Word Document for the Lesson. Be sure to save your work.

Feedback

Please complete the questions at https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/Unit1_1/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

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Lesson 1-1-A: Information Sheet for What is a System?

“A system is an interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized in a way that achieves something.” Donella Meadows, Systems Thinking Pioneer

Systems range in size and complexity, and can be natural (for example, forests and the solar system) or human-made (airports and schools). Consider the human body: cells combine to create tissues, which in turn make up organs, which comprise systems, such as the respiratory system, the circulatory system, the skeletal system, and so on. The body is therefore a complex system with multiple subsystems. When one part of a system changes, it affects other parts as well, and ultimately affects the stability and sustainability of the system.

What makes up a system?

1. Elements or Parts: These are discrete pieces within the system. For example, a frame, pedals, handlebars, wheels, chain, brakes, fork, and a seat are pieces that put together make up a bicycle. Elements are the ‘nouns’ in your system – people, places and things. In a social system, elements might include

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different organizations, programs, products, money, institutions, and – of course – citizens (clients, patients, activists, consumers, leaders, etc.).

2. Interconnections: These are the relationships that connect the elements (for example, food webs and predator-prey relationships in ecosystems). In thinking about interconnections, remember that the goal is not to exhaustively list every element in a system, but instead to understand and map the interconnections between them. Those relationships tell a story about what is happening in a system.

3. A Function or Purpose: Sometimes the purpose seems really obvious. The goal of school is to educate, or the purpose of human cells is to keep the body working well. In reality no single part of a system can achieve that purpose alone. The wheels of the bike turn and propel movement, but they don’t do it without the other elements of the system. In human systems, each actor in a system may fundamentally hold a different idea or belief of exactly what that purpose is and how it should be accomplished.

4. Dynamics: Systems are constantly changing. These changes are called dynamics. Changes can be seen as good or bad depending on your view of the system. Back to the bicycle. Even an old bike left in a garage, given enough time will change. The tires will rot, the chain will dry up and the bike will be less functional than it was when it was placed there. Eventually it might rust so much that certain parts become unrecognizable. Now your bike won’t rust away while you stand there eating a sandwich, but a systems thinker pays close attention to pattern and trends of change in a system.

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Lesson 1-1-B: Graphic Organizer Worksheet Sheet for “My System of Interest” Choose a system of interest to you. Some ideas might include your family, your Upward Bound summer program, your faith community, your school, or a sports team. You may use words or small pictures to address these questions.

First enter a name you can use to identify the system______

Then identify key components that describe your system of interest---key elements, interconnections, goals, and dynamics. 1. Elements

2. Interconnections

3. Goals

4. Dynamics

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How do you connect or fit into to your system of interest?

How do you influence or impact your system?

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Unit 1

Lesson 1-2: Habits of a Systems Thinker

Overview: What a Does a Systems Thinker Do?

What is a farmer? Someone who plants and harvests crops. What is a teacher? Someone who helps other people learn. What is a systems thinker? Someone who practices the Habits of a System Thinker.

Yesterday you explored the question “what is a system?” Today you answer the question. “What is systems thinking?” by looking at what a systems thinker does.

Using the fourteen Habits of a Systems Thinker builds skill in Science and Engineering Practice 1: Asking Questions and Defining Problems. While exploring the Habits of a Systems Thinker, you may find that several of the Habits are familiar to you as things you do to solve problems or handle everyday challenges at home, school or work. When you practice the Habits, you are a systems thinker.

Objectives and Learning Goals

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 Explore and explain the fourteen Habits of a Systems Thinker (HOST).  Make connections between the Habits and your life and learning.

Time and Materials

For this lesson you will use:

 Internet access to the Waters Foundation Systems Thinking Tools. For this lesson you will use a digital view of both the front and back of the Habits Cards by visiting this link https://www.watersfoundation.org/systems-thinking-tools-and-strategies/habits- of-a-systems-thinker/  A place to record and save your notes—either digital or on paper (work with your teacher to set up a regular method and place to store your notes. This work will build your scaffold to your final project)  Lesson Information and Worksheets: 1-2-A, 1-2-B, 1-2-C, 1-2-D, and 1-2-E  Access to a social media account for posting

It is expected that this lesson can be completed in about 60 minutes. You are always encouraged to spend some time outside of class thinking about the lesson.

Reflection Questions

 How can you use the Habits in order to bring about significant change?  How can “thinking about your thinking” impact your learning and life?

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Integration and Scaffolding (How Does this Lesson Fit into the Overall Course?)

 In this lesson (1-2) you focus on learning about the habits of a systems thinker that will help you build your own scaffold and bridge to becoming a systems thinker in addressing the key issues of our times.

Key Activities

Get familiar with the Habits

 Look at the one-page list of Habits in Information Sheet 1-2-A  For this lesson and all future lessons, you will need access to the Waters Foundation, Habits of a Systems Thinker. You can view a digital view of both the front and back of the Habits Cards by visiting this link https://www.watersfoundation.org/systems-thinking-tools-and- strategies/habits-of-a-systems-thinker/  Choose 3 Habits of a System Thinker that seem particularly interesting to you.  Read the front and back of those Habits cards on line.  Think of an example of how you would practice each of your 3 Habits and record the Habit and example in your digital or paper notebook.  Pair up with another student and share the Habits you chose and your example of each. Add your notes on the similarities and differences of your choices and examples to your Notebook along with your pair’s answer to the following question, “Why are these Habits important?”

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 Self-Assessment—Habits Sort and Reflection Matrix Considering all fourteen Habits, divide them into the following categories:  Habits that are your strengths  Habits that you need to practice  Habits that you have questions about

Record your results on the Habits of a Systems Thinker Reflection Matrix (Lesson 1-2-C Worksheet).

 Habits and Green Careers o In groups of six or more students brainstorm a list of at least 12 careers that you are interested in knowing more about. Be sure to include at least six jobs that are connected to the fields of science, technology, engineering or mathematics. As a bonus, can you think of some “green jobs.” Green jobs increase the health of our environment. Record your group’s notes and your own notes on Lesson 1-2-D Worksheet. Take a snapshot to save for future reference o In pairs, pick one job that is of particular interest. Google that job to get a big picture view of what is required. o With your partner talk about how an individual involved in that job might practice one of more of the Habits of a Systems Thinker. o Find another pair of students and share your findings.

Additional Writing and Sharing: As time permits complete either the Habits Poster or Habits Connections Activity  Habits Poster  In groups of four design an original Habits poster for one of the Habits. As a group come to consensus on the Habit you think you can describe the best. The template for the Habits poster is found in Lesson 1-2-D: Worksheet at the end of this lesson.

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 Habits Connections  Choose a random object from your backpack or grab something nearby (a pencil, a cell phone, set of keys, photo from your phone or other).  Make a connection between that object and any one of the 14 Habits of a Systems Thinker. For example, the camera on my cell phone reminds me of changing perspectives because I can zoom in or out to see things from a different perspective.

Check Out

Reflections

 Prepare to discuss how one the following Reflection Questions related to your connections, during a whole class’ check out debrief. a. How can you use the Habits in order to bring about significant change? b. How can “thinking about your thinking” impact your learning and life?  Compile a 3-2-1 Chart for this session listing: 3 things I learned, 2 things I found interesting, 1 question I have. Post or submit your responses to social media.  As you CHECK OUT, be sure that you have saved a digital copy of your work to your folder.

Feedback

Please complete the questions at https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/Unit1_2/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

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Lesson 1-2-A: Information Sheet for The Habits of a Systems Thinker

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Lesson 1-2-B: Worksheet for Habits Sort

Habits I Habits I Habits I practice want to have regularly get better questions at about

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Lesson 1-2-C: Worksheet for Habits of a System Thinker Matrix

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Lesson 1-2-D: Note Sheet for Green Careers and Habits of a Systems Thinker

What are 12 possible Careers with a Pick a career or job from the list that is focus on Green Jobs? (Include at least 6 of special interest to you. of which involve –STEM (science, technology, engineering or math) or STEAM (science, tecnology, engineering, art, or math) What does your Google search reveal 1. about the job that interests you and 2. what is needed to do the job?

3. 4.

5. What habits of systems thinking does 6. such a career or job involve? 7.

10.

11. 12.

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Lesson 1-2-E: Worksheet Template for Habits of a Systems Thinker Poster

Restate the Habit in Your Own Words Create a Motto for the Habit

• Restate the Habit in your own words

What is a book, movie or song that Represent the Habit visually without connects to this Habit? Write or draw it using any words here.

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Unit 1 Lesson 1-3: Stock-Flow Maps

Overview and Integration: How Does This Lesson Fit?

One of the Habits that you explored yesterday is specifically linked to a visual tool of systems thinking called a stock-flow map. The stock-flow map represents accumulations and their rates of change. Using stock-flow maps builds skill in Science and Engineering Practices 1 and 2: Ask questions to clarify and refine a model, an explanation, or an engineering problem; and develop and use models … to illustrate and/or predict the relationships between systems or between components of a system. The stock-flow map is the basis of the STELLA models you will use in future lessons.

Objectives and Learning Goals

 Demonstrate the relationship between stocks and flows by completing a water challenge.  Draw a stock-flow map about social media.  Explain how stock-flow maps increase understanding of systems.

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Time and Materials

For this module you will use:

 Internet access to the Waters Foundation website https://www.watersfoundation.org/systems-thinking-tools-and- strategies/habits-of-a-systems-thinker/ and to watch the video, “Introduction to Stock-Flow” https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=UL8azVk479M  Hands on Water Challenge Equipment designed to illustrate a stock and flow  Information and Lab Sheets 1-3-A, 1-3-B and 1-3-C. These will l build your knowledge of Systems Dynamics language and concepts  Access to your class folder to upload your work

It is expected that this module can be completed in about 60 minutes. You are always encouraged to spend some time outside of class thinking about the lesson.

Reflection Questions

1. How can you use the Habits in order to bring about significant change? 2. How can “thinking about your thinking” impact your learning and life?

Integration and Scaffolding (How Does this Lesson Fit into the Overall Course?)

 In this lesson (1-3) you focus on learning about systems dynamics basic concepts and language. This will help you continue to build your own scaffolds and bridges to becoming a systems thinker in addressing the key issues of our times.

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Key Activities

 Review the information for the Systems Thinking Habit titled “Pays attention to accumulations and their rates of change”. https://www.watersfoundation.org/systems-thinking-tools-and-strategies/habits-of-a- systems-thinker/

Elements in systems that change over time are called stocks. Some stocks, like water in the birdbath are very concrete and easy to measure, while others are more abstract, like the boy’s effort at keeping a comfortable water level for the birds in the birdbath. Examples of concrete stocks include the number of animals in a forest, the number of students in a school or the amount of gas in a car’s tank. Examples of abstract stocks include your changing level of fear while watching a horror move, the amount of school spirit displayed during a sporting event or the amount of stress at different times of the school year. These abstract stocks may be less quantifiable in terms of number, but the rate and nature of the change can be observed or felt. Stocks can also be described as the nouns in a system.

Flows are the actions or processes that directly add to or take away from the stock. The flow is always a rate. It represents the “verbs” in the system. In the bird bath example, the hose adds to the water in the birdbath (inflow) while evaporation from the Sun takes away (outflow). Inflows to animals in a forest could include births or animal migration while outflows could be deaths or animals migrating out of the forest.

Where is this Habit on your Habits Matrix chart? (Strength, Need Practice, Don’t Understand)

 Watch the video, “Introduction to Stock-Flow” https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=UL8azVk479M

Using the information in Module 1-3-A in your Notebook sketch a stock-flow map to represent the bird bath system that illustrates the Habit, a systems thinker pays attention to accumulations and their rates of change.

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Writing and Sharing

Take the Water Challenge. Follow the directions on in Module Lab Sheet 1-3- B. Be sure to make predictions before using the water apparatus.

You will work in groups of five. Rotate the roles for each task so everyone gets a chance to do all the jobs.

Assign roles to complete each challenge. You will need…

A task leader

An inflow manager—operates the inflow pump

An outflow manager—operates the outflow pump

A time keeper

A recorder (be sure to record your team’s predictions as well as the actual graph of your actual results)

As a group, discuss what worked well for you in completing the challenges. What did you learn about stocks and flows?

If time permits, exchange Challenge Six with another group. Can you replicate their results? Why or Why not?

Got Followers? In small groups draw an original stock-flow map to explore what grows a stock of followers on social media. Use Module 1-3-B “Drawing a Stock-Flow Map” sheet found at the end of this lesson.

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Check Out

Reflection

Identify the most significant learning or idea you gained from the lesson and post your response to a social media site

As you CHECK OUT, be sure to save a copy of your work to your digital folder.

Feedback

Please complete the questions at https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/Unit1_3/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

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Lesson 1-3-A: Information Sheet for Basic Components of a Stock-Flow Map

A tool that helps systems thinkers pay attention to accumulations and their rates of change is the stock-flow map. Systems thinking is derived from the field of system dynamics, where practitioners use advanced stock-flow maps made into mathematical computer models to represent a system. A stock-flow map is a tool for better understanding a system and attempting to anticipate its behavior. When building the map, you use simple icons and arrows to show how system parts are connected. The visual map can help you begin to identify areas of potential leverage.

Basic Definitions

STOCK: Represents an accumulation, concrete or abstract, that can increase or decrease over time. It represents the “nouns” in a system. It can only change based on the rate(s) of flow.

FLOW: Represents the actions or processes that directly add to or take away from the stock. The flow is always a rate and is defined as units of the stock per units of time. It represents the “verbs” in the system.

CONVERTER: Holds information about the system that affect the rate of the flows or the value of another converter.

CONNECTOR: Indicates that there is a relationship between the elements of the system.

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What is Bathtub Thinking?

Like the birdbath, a bathtub offers a great metaphor for understanding the idea of stocks and flows. Imagine you are filling a bathtub. You get the temperature just right. You secure a stopper in the drain and then you go off to gather a towel, and in the process you get distracted. Suddenly you remember that the water has been running for a much extended period of time and the perfect temperature and soothing suds have been ruined. The faucet represents the inflow to this system. Turning it on more slowly allows the bathtub to run for a longer period of time. More fully securing the drain would have prevented loss of that bath water. Adjusting the rate of the inflow or the outflow allows for management of the stock, in this case the level of water in the bathtub.

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Lesson 1-3-B: Lab Sheet for the Water Challenge

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Lesson 1-3-C: Guide Sheet for Drawing a Stock-Flow Map

Social media is all about increasing followers. In this exercise you will use a stock-flow map to explore and communicate ideas about building followers on social media

Systems Thinkers establish system boundaries. To focus this stock-flow map identify one particular social media platform, e.g. Instagram, Twitter, You Tube or other platform of your choice.

1. On a large piece of paper draw this stock-flow map template. This will be the basis of your group’s social media stock-flow map. You will add to it as you work through each item in this exercise.

2. Define your accumulation. Be specific Twitter has followers, You Tube has subscribers. Select the one that is most important to your specific platform. Ask: what elements of your chosen system can you see, feel, count or measure? Be sure everyone in your group has a shared understanding of your accumulation.

3. Label the stock with that specific accumulation on your stock-flow map. Remember: A stock represents an amount that can increase or decrease over time.

4. Label the inflow, increasing and the outflow, decreasing

5. Create converters and connectors. What causes the stock to increase? What cause the stock to decrease? Here are some ideas to get you started: number of posts, quality of content, purchased followers, likes. Don’t be limited by these ideas. Use your team’s experience with social media. Work to make the most direct connections you can. Ask: Does ______directly impact ______or is there something else that more directly connects to the variable. Use connector arrows to show causal

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connections between other parts of your map, e.g. a change in one convertor may cause a change in another convertor.

Keys for good convertors:

 Don’t use qualifiers. Example, it is not more content or less content, simply content. Then decide whether the amount of content has more influence on how many people follow the page (increase) or if the content on the page causes people to unsubscribe, thus affecting the outflow.  Avoid convertors that are opposites. Decide whether your convertor is more likely to impact how much is added to the stock (rate of inflow) or how much is subtracted from the stock (rate of outflow). Then place that convertor on the correct side. For example, it is not personal passion on the inflow side and lack of personal passion on the outflow side, but rather does personal passion more directly impact the rate of inflow or the rate of outflow.

6. Ask: If the stock changes, does that impact any other part of the map? If so, use a connector to show that causal relationship. This is a very important question. For example, if you identified number of views as a converter that impacts the inflow to the stock, and if you believe the number of followers (stock) impacts the number of views, you would draw a connector out of the stock to the converter, number of views. It would look like this:

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Technical Hint: You can draw a connector from a stock, you cannot draw a connector into a stock.

7. Finding leverage: Based on your stock-flow map, what is an action you could take that would likely increase your stock of followers? List your group’s answers to these on the bottom of your stock-flow map

8. Upload a photo of your completed stock-flow map.

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Unit 1 Lesson 1-4: Feedback

Introduction: How a System Answers Back

What do you think of when you think of feedback? The annoying sound when something goes wrong with your microphone? Your teacher’s comment on your class assignment? Or maybe it’s the response you get to an invitation? Feedback can be used to describe all of these things.

Causal feedback, the kind found in a feedback loop, can be a powerful way to represent what’s happening in a system. As such, feedback loops are essential to the models you will use over the next few weeks.

Systems thinkers look for feedback in order to better understand relationships in the system. Using feedback loops builds skill in Science and Engineering Practice 2 (Developing and Using Models … to show relationships among variables between systems and their components in the natural and designed worlds). In the natural world, cause and effect relationships are all around us. The essential relationship between bees and flowers show how one needs the other in order to survive. Bees enable flowers to reproduce and grow through pollination of the flower, and bees

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depend on the nectar of flowers as a food source. This interdependency is just one example of the vast number of causal relationships that help define our world.

Objectives and Learning Goals

 Draw feedback loops to show causal relationships.  Distinguish between balancing and reinforcing feedback.  Identify causal loops within stock-flow maps.

Time and Materials

For this module you will use:

 Internet access to Watch the causal loop video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTo06jbSZ4M  Cell phones to take videos of yourself and others  Tweet or other social media access  Access to your class folder to upload your work

It is expected that this module can be completed in about 60 minutes. You are always encouraged to spend some time outside of class thinking about the lesson.

Integration and Scaffolding (How Does this Lesson Fit into the Overall Course?)

 In this lesson you focus on learning about the concept of feedback –a concept that is basic to systems thinking and systems dynamics modeling. This is another key step in building your scaffolds and bridges to becoming a systems thinker

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Key Activities

 Watch the causal loop video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTo06jbSZ4M  There are two types of causal loops. Reinforcing loops represent escalating growth or decline. The more you exercise, the more energy you have. The more energy you have the more you want to exercise. Balancing loops generate stable behavior, sometimes called equilibrium. For example, if you set your thermostat to 70 and the room temperature rises, the thermostat will activate the cooling system until the room temperature returns to 70.  Play “Living Loops” as a way to physically simulate reinforcing and balancing feedback.  Practice Drawing Causal Loops In your Notebook, draw at least one balancing and one reinforcing loop.  Where do I see causal loops (feedback) in my daily life?  Draw and label the loops from your examples above

 Reviewing the stock-flow map that your group drew yesterday, look for closed, causal loops in your map.

One way to know if you have a loop is if you can talk through the loop more than once when telling the story. Using the example from yesterday’s stock-flow map the story might sound something like this: “The more followers I have on Instagram, the more of their followers are going to see my photos. When someone views my content, they are more likely to follow my page. When that person follows my page, their followers will see my page and some of them will follow me, increasing my number of followers.”

Keep in mind that you can find these closed, causal loops on the inflow side, the outflow side and among the converters. Loops can have more than two elements.

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Once you think you have found a loop, draw it outside of the stock-flow map and tell the story of the loop.

When your group has found some loops, take a video of yourself telling the story of that loop. Include how the loop describes the relationship between the parts of a system. Upload those videos to your portfolio.

Check Out

Reflection

 Pair up with someone who was in a different stock-flow map group, share your stock-flow maps and your feedback back loops. Evaluate your loops in terms of accuracy and their ability to represent the system of social media followers.

 What ideas have been generated over the last two days for increasing social media followers? Share one idea in a tweet.

Feedback

Please complete the questions at https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/Unit1_4/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

Additional Resource Links ---

Meadows, Dennis, and others. (2016) The Climate Change Playbook: 22 Systems Thinking Games for More Effective Communication about Climate Change. White River Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing.

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Unit 1: Notes Page

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Unit 2 Lesson 2-1: Introduction to World Climate

Overview: Ready for the World to Change?

Earlier work gave you an overview of the Habits of a Systems Thinker and a first look at complex systems. In this Unit, which features the World Climate simulation, you will interact with two complex systems: social systems where you will be using your “Habits” and physical Earth and atmospheric systems where you are using a simulation model. These simulations build your skills in Science and Engineering Practices 1 and 2 (1: Ask Questions … that arise from examining models; and 2: Develop and Using Models … use a model based on evidence to predict the relationships between systems or components of a system.)

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Today you will prepare for the World Climate session by learning about simulation models and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and by receiving your assignments to the regions that you will represent during World Climate. Once assigned to a region of the globe, you will investigate your specific region’s historical and future connections to climate change, both as contributors to climate change (CC) and as a region that experiences its impacts. You will prepare for negotiations and build an understanding of your region’s interests as they relate to climate change. Your experience during the World Climate simulation demonstrates both the realities of physical (computer model) and social (negotiations) dynamics of climate change.

Objectives and Learning Goals

 Define the term ‘simulation’ and prepare for the two simulations you will use during the World Climate session.

 Learn about your delegation’s interests and opportunities in the negotiation, and how they fit within the global landscape.

 Give examples of impacts expected from unchecked climate change.

Time and Materials

For this lesson you will need:

 Internet access to interact with the C-ROADS simulation model

 Briefing Statement

 Regional Worksheet

 Glossary of Terms Sheet

 Notebook and writing utensil

It is expected that this module can be completed in 60 minutes.

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Reflection Questions

1. How will climate change affect people around the world? 2. How does day-to-day weather connect with climate? 3. How do differences between developed and developing regions, (namely

historical and future CO2 emissions, GDP, and population) complicate international negotiations and agreements on climate action?

Integration and Scaffolding (How Does this Lesson Fit into the Overall Course?)

Your experience during this unit will strengthen the foundation of knowledge required for building your own model of Earth and atmospheric systems, using a simplified version of the model used in the World Climate simulation (C-ROADS). With an understanding of the scale and timing of action needed to successfully address the climate challenge, you will be prepared to discover how you can contribute positively in your community.

Key Activities

1. Take a few minutes to note three differences between weather and climate in your notebook. Share your ideas with a partner and identify the similarities and differences between your findings during class discussion of the following.  How does day-to-day weather connect with climate?  Does an unusually cold day provide evidence that climate change is not happening?  Does an unusually hot day mean that climate change is happening?

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2. Watch Orientation Video https://vimeo.com/256894713 3. Preparation: A simulation is an imitation of the way a system operates. Highlight or underline the most important feature of each simulation used in this Unit: A. Computer Simulation: Through interacting with the climate policy model, C-ROADS, you will be able to see how the many Earth and atmospheric systems of the planet interact as one complex system. C-ROADS enables you to interactively explore the impact of fossil fuel use and the heat- trapping gasses they release on Earth’s climate, the natural systems we depend on, and society. B. Negotiation Simulation: Through taking on the roles of delegates of different countries and regions at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, you will also be simulating the social system of a negotiation at an international forum. Here, you apply your knowledge of systems thinking habits to make decisions about how your individual region will respond to the challenge ahead, as well as flex other negotiating skills, seeking to convince other regions to play their part.

4. Group Preparation: The information you gather through reading and answering questions in the following two worksheets will strengthen your negotiating power. They will provide evidence to support (i) the logic behind your region’s proposals and (ii) the logic behind what you ask other regions to contribute. Refer to your Glossary of Terms sheet for any terms you are not familiar with. a) In groups associated with your assigned region, review your region’s Briefing Statement. b) In these same groups, follow the directions on your Regional Worksheets to gather background information about your region and how it compares to others in the world. Check in with your instructor to see how many parts of the worksheet your region should complete.

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Check Out

Reflection

 Refer to your Regional Briefing Statements and Regional Worksheets to answer the following questions in your notebook: 1) What are three key pieces of background information about your region that you think the delegates from your team should consider in

negotiations? Use what you know about your region’s past and future CO2 emissions, GDP, and population. 2) What are some key features of the global landscape that you need to consider in negotiations with delegates from other regions? Use what you know about how your region compares to other regions’ past and future

CO2 emissions, GDP, and population. 3) How do you think your region’s public opinion might impact the proposals you make during negotiations? Post or submit your responses to your class portfolio.  As you CHECK OUT, be sure to save a digital copy of your work.

Feedback

Please complete the questions at https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/Unit2_1/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

Additional Resource

 Handout: Briefing Statements, Regional Worksheet, Glossary of Terms Sheet

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Lesson 2-1-A: Regional Worksheet for Developed Nations: Get to Know Your Region

Working with other members of your region, access or download C-ROADS World Climate at: https://croadsworldclimate.climateinteractive.org

 Go to the “Simulation” menu option in the top left corner to make sure your model is set for the number of regions your class is using (6 regions versus 3 regions).  You will be using the “Graphs” dropdown menu to access the data that will help you compare your region’s characteristics to others. You will only need to focus on the graph on the top left-hand side of the page to answer the following questions.

Part A: Using C-ROADS to Understand Regional Contributions to Climate Change

1. Which regions will have the highest CO2 Emissions in the latter half of this century (2050 - 2100)? Which will have the highest Greenhouse Gas Emissions during this time?

2. Describe your region’s Population projections (under the “Economics” menu option) as they compare to the projections of other regions. Are there other regions that are similar to yours? Are there projections which are vastly different?

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How do you think population growth relates to climate change? How does population contribute to your region’s carbon emissions? How might population affect your region’s ability to respond to the climate crisis?

3. You will notice graphs that mention “per capita” after a variable that is being measured. Per capita means “per person” in your region. Working in per capita makes it easier to compare various regions, rather than attempting to understand different quantities within multiple contexts. Let’s look at an example. If nothing changes now, which regions are projected to have the highest Emissions Per Capita (under “Economics”) in the future? How do your region and other regions compare to the global average?

4. What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? How do the projections of your Region/Bloc’s GDP compare to others’ in the future? Are they higher? Are they lower?

Why do you think a region’s GDP Per Capita is important to consider in climate negotiations with other regions?

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Part B: Sea Level Rise in Your Region

One impact of climate change is the rise of sea levels, due to both melting ice from glaciers and ice sheets, as well as from heating ocean temperatures which causes “thermal expansion.” Select a city below that resides within your region.

China: Shanghai

United States: New York

European Union: London, UK

Other Developed: Nagoya, Japan

India: Mumbai

Other Developing Nations: Hanoi, Vietnam

Compare the two maps on the left and right. The map on the left shows how high the ocean would rise if we do not take action to lower our CO2 emissions. The map on the right shows sea level rise if we do cut our emissions. What are the differences between the two?

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What does sea level rise mean for the people who reside in your city? For your city’s transportation system, including the transport of food? For your city’s businesses and financial situation? What would sea level rise mean for hazardous waste sites close to the coast?

Part C: What Role Does Your Region Play?

Reflect individually on the information you gathered above. Which regions do you feel have the greatest responsibility for curbing emissions in the upcoming century? Support your answer with evidence from the C-ROADS projections data.

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Lesson Sheet 2-1-B: Regional Worksheet for Developing Nations: Get to Know Your Region Working with other members of your region, access or download C-ROADS World Climate at: https://croadsworldclimate.climateinteractive.org

Part A: Using C-ROADS to Understand Regional Contributions to Climate Change

1. Looking at the stacked display of Historical Cumulative Emissions (found under GHG Emissions tab) which regions over the past 100 years have contributed most to our current climate crisis? (You can drag your mouse over the graph to see each region’s quantities.)

You will notice graphs that mention “per capita” after a variable that is being measured. Per capita means “per person” in your region. Working in per capita makes it easier to compare various regions, rather than attempting to understand total amounts within multiple contexts. Let’s look at an example. If nothing changes now, which regions are projected to have the highest Emissions Per Capita (under the “Economics menu option) in the future? Are these nations different from those who historically have emitted the most? How do your region and other regions compare to the global average?

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2. Describe your region’s Population (Under the “Economics” menu option) projections as they compare to the projections of other regions. Are there other regions that are similar to yours? Are there population projections which are vastly different?

3. What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? How do the projections of your Region/Bloc’s GDP Per Capita compare to others’ in the future? Are they higher? Are they lower?

Why do you think GDP Per Capita is important to consider in climate negotiations with other regions? From your region’s perspective, who should contribute most to the Green Climate Fund?

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Part B: Global Impacts

Working with other members of your region, access the Climate Impact Map from the Climate Impact Lab: http://www.impactlab.org/map/#usmeas=absolute&usyear=19812010&gmeas=absolute&gyear=1986- 2005&tab=global

 Be sure that your settings directly above the map are set to “Global Map.”  Above this setting, make sure you begin looking at the map with the “Historical 1986 – 2005” setting selected.  Along the left-hand-side of the map, you have the option to view the map in degrees Fahrenheit (Imperial System the US uses) or degrees Celsius (Metric System.)

This map displays the average June, July, and August temperatures across the globe. Increasing global average temperatures have varying levels of impacts on average regional temperature, depending on where your region is located on the globe. Those regions who rely on rain-fed agriculture are particularly at risk, if drought leads to crop failure and food insecurity. Food security aside, extreme temperatures also cause heat stress, which has the potential to lead to death.

One at a time, select the settings “Next 20 Years,” “Mid-Century” and “End of Century” to view the projections for extreme heat in each region if the globe continues to emit at its current rate.

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Which regions of the globe will be most impacted by extreme heat?

Part C: What Role Does Your Region Play?

Reflect on the information you gathered above. Which regions do you feel are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change? Which regions do you feel have the greatest responsibility for greenhouse gases that have already accumulated in the atmosphere? Support your answer with evidence from the C-ROADS and Impact Map projections data.

Part D: Sea Level Rise in Your Region

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China: Shanghai

United States: New York

European Union: London, UK

Other Developed: Nagoya, Japan

India: Mumbai

Other Developing Nations: Hanoi, Vietnam

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Lesson 2-1-C: Vocabulary to Help You Prepare for the World Climate Simulation

Afforestation: growing a new forest or stand of trees in an area that was not forested before. Afforestation includes actively planting new forests and allowing forests to develop naturally on land that was not forested.

Carbon dioxide (CO2): a gas that is produced when fossil fuels (i.e., natural gas, coal, oil or gasoline) are used or burned. Carbon dioxide is also produced by living things when they metabolize or use food. It is taken up by plants during photosynthesis and converted into sugars and other forms of organic carbon that can then be used as food and energy.

Climate change: refers to any long-term changes in Earth's weather patterns (rain, temperature, sunshine, storms, etc.). Scientist have studied how Earth’s climate has changed over Earth’s history and have observed clear increases in global temperature in the last few decades.

See NASA link for more info: http://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/5- 8/features/nasa-knows/what-is-climate-change-58.html

Deforestation: the clearing of trees, transforming a forest into cleared or non- forested land.

Delegate: a person who is chosen or elected to represent all the people from that group. Usually the delegate will vote or act for others.

Developed Nation: a country where the average income (what people earn from their work) is much higher than the global average. These countries usually have good education and health care.

Developing Nations: a country where the average income (what people earn from their work) is lower than the global average (see developed nations above). It can also mean a country with poor education and health care.

Economy: the wealth/money and resources of a country, especially in terms of the production (making) and consumption (using/sale of) of goods and services.

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Emissions: making and giving off something (for example: giving off carbon dioxide gas).

Carbon Emissions: usually means the amount of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) gas given off by burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) from cars, machines, factories, power plants and other human activities.

Fossil Fuel Emissions: all the different gases given off by burning fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas, and coal. 90% of the emissions are CO2 gas, but methane and other gasses are emitted too. Fossil fuels were formed hundreds of millions of years ago from prehistoric photosynthesizing organisms.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions: gases that trap heat in our atmosphere are called greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and fluorinated gases used as refrigerants and in industrial processes.

See the EPA link for more info: http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): the total value (money) of goods produced and services provided in a country during one year.

Negotiator: someone who tries to help two groups who disagree to reach an agreement with each other, usually so that everyone benefits.

The Right to Development: the idea that people all over the world should as human beings have the right to a good standard of living/economy, education, health, safety, food, politics and other basic human needs.

See the United Nations link for more info: http://www.un.org/en/events/righttodevelopment/pdf/rtd_at_a_glance.pdf

Verifiable Agreements: something that can be checked scientifically to make sure it is being done. Written by Ginger Wallis and Juliette Rooney-Varga More resources available at climate-change-initiative.org/world-climate-classrooms

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Unit 2 Lesson 2-2: The World Climate Simulation

Overview: “We Are the World”

The Habits of a Systems Thinker that you’ve practiced so far, give you new skills for solving problems on a team. The World Climate simulation is an opportunity for you to engage in Science and Engineering Practice 8 (Obtaining, evaluating and communicating information) through communicating persuasively with peers in science-based discussions. In World Climate, you will explore interactions between human and natural systems. As shown in previous lessons, systems often behave in ways that are not intuitive. Understanding systems and intervening in them effectively often requires understanding the ‘Big Picture’ (Habits of a Systems Thinker #2), Patterns over Time (HST #5) and thinking about how those patterns are interconnected (HST#1). The simulation is also a unique opportunity to gain clarity on HST#9: Recognizes the impact of time delays when exploring cause and effect relationships.

Objectives and Learning Goals

 Identify sources of greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use.

 Explain the scale and timing of changes in emissions needed to meet international climate goals.

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 Explain what international climate goals are and why they are important.

 Explain the impacts we expect if international climate goals are not met, including effects of climate change on droughts, heatwaves, freshwater availability, storms, sea level rise, and plant and animal extinctions.

 Connect global impacts to impacts in your community.

 Explain how decisions about climate change may be affected by social systems and social inequity.

Time and Materials

For this lesson you will use:

 World Climate Briefing Statements (from Unit 2, Lesson 1)  Regional Worksheets (from Unit 2, Lesson 1)  World Climate Proposal Submission Forms  Glossary of Terms sheet

It is expected that this lesson can be completed in 120 minutes.

Reflection Questions

1. How quickly do we need to reduce emissions in order to meet international climate goals? 2. Is it possible to meet international climate goals without action from all delegations? Why or why not? 3. What are the implications of your previous answer, if any, for social justice and addressing inequity at an international level? What about for addressing climate change and social justice issues within your community? 4. How do you think the actions of one country or delegations influence the actions of other countries or delegations?

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Key Activities

If you were a delegate to the United Nations climate negotiations, what would an international climate agreement look like? Now is your chance to find out during an extended class session. In the World Climate Simulation, as delegates representing countries around the world, you will be challenged to create a climate agreement that limits global warming to no more than 2 ˚C above preindustrial times.

1. During the simulation, try to consider the whole system and think clearly about the causes of patterns over time (such as emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, or the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere). Using the habits of a systems thinker will help you be a successful World Climate delegate! 2. Your instructor will guide you through the simulation with instructions on how and when to do the following steps. Your focus should be on negotiating the best agreement possible for your nation or region. Good luck, delegates! Our future depends on your success.

 Meet with your delegation, decide on a strategy that meets your climate and political goals, and  Try to convince other delegations why your strategy should be implemented.  Your decisions will be entered in the C-ROADS climate policy computer model, which is also used to analyze real-world international climate policy. C-ROADS will give you immediate feedback about the expected global climate impacts of your decisions based on the best available science.

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Check Out

Reflection

Reflect on the following questions and journal your responses in your Notebook.

a. How did participating in the World Climate simulation make you feel? Were there any surprises? If yes, what? b. How quickly do we need to reduce emissions in order to meet international climate goals? Draw a behavior-over-time graph of greenhouse gas emissions from 2020 to 2100 showing an emissions pathway that you think could meet international climate goals. c. Is it possible to meet international climate goals without action from all delegations? Why or why not? d. What are the implications of your previous answer, if any, for social justice and addressing inequity at an international level? What about for addressing climate change and social justice issues within your community? e. How do you think the actions of one country or delegations influence the actions of other countries or delegations? f. Complete the following sentence in your notebook: I used to think . . . but now I know . . .

As you CHECK OUT, be sure to save a copy of your Notebook to your digital folder.

Feedback

Please complete the questions at https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/Unit2_2/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

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Unit 2 Lesson 2-3: Build Your Own Roadmap to Climate Success

Overview

Today, you will dig into the basic drivers of atmospheric CO2 dynamics, or changes over time. Using the same C-ROADS model that you used in World Climate, you will explore what happens if society takes a ‘wait-and-see’ attitude about climate change and still wants to meet the international goal of avoiding the worst consequences of climate change. In this lesson, you will engage in Science and Engineering Practice #5 (Using Mathematics and Computational Thinking) through revising inputs into a computational model.

You will use C-ROADS to more deeply understand the stock-flow dynamics that were introduced in Unit 1. You will also take a more global view of social equity and climate change impacts that you considered for the region you represented in 2-1 and 2-2. This lesson lays the groundwork for the work you will do in Unit 3, in which you will use computer modeling software to explore your own models of the atmospheric CO2 stock and the global carbon cycle. You will also create your own pathway to a sustainable climate and lay the groundwork for exploring climate solutions in Units 3 through 5.

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Objectives and Learning Goals

 Become familiar with the C-ROADS climate change policy.

 Explain the scale and timing of action on climate change needed for successful mitigation.

 Explain links between equity and climate action.

Time and Materials

For this module you will use:

 A computer to access the C-ROADS policy model, which is available to use online or downloaded at: https://croadsworldclimate.climateinteractive.org  C-ROADS Modeling Scenarios Worksheet

It is expected that this module can be completed in 60 minutes.

Reflection Questions

1. What is your vision of successful climate action? 2. What do you think the impact of a ‘wait-and-see’ vs. ‘act now’ approach is on: a. The choices available to society for addressing climate change? b. The cost of addressing climate change? c. The possibility or likelihood that we can address climate change successfully? 3. How do you think the responsibility for emissions reductions should be divided among wealthy and developing countries?

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Key Activities

Steps of 2-3

1. Refer to the C-ROADS Modeling Scenarios worksheet for directions. Check in with your instructor about which parts of the worksheet to complete, and record your answers in your notebook.

Sharing

 Post one new understanding (finding or observation) you gained from each class pair’s stock and flow example from “Describe Timing Impact” in Part B of the C- ROADS Modeling Scenarios worksheet.

Reflection

 Think/Pair/Share: Think about the most important insight you gained from your interactions with the C-ROADS model. Find a partner and share your insight with them.  Post your response to a social media site  As you CHECK OUT, be sure to save a copy of your work to your digital folder.

Feedback

Please complete the questions at https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/Unit2_3/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

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Lesson 2-3-A: C-ROADS Modeling Scenarios: Key Stocks, Flows, and Dynamics

Part A: Key Stocks and Flows in the Carbon System

 In your notebook, list the types of stocks that might be part of Climate Change.  Watch “Using Systems Thinking to Understand Climate Change,” at http://climate- change-initiative.org/curriculum/using-systems-thinking-understand-climate-change.  Based on the video, consider the following questions and record your responses in your notebook. o Was there anything in the video that surprised you, or that you think would surprise your friends or family members? If so what? And why?

o How many pounds of CO2 does the average American’s use of energy release into

the atmosphere every day? What are the major human-caused emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere?  With a partner, to complete the following:

o Atmospheric CO2 is a key stock in the climate system. Brainstorm other stocks (i.e., anything can grow or decline over time) that are important in climate change. o Revise and combine your list of climate change stocks to a list of the most relevant five. Include the unit of measure for each stock (like billions of tons of oil). Your answers can include anything from components of the Earth system to parts of human society. They can be tangible or physical (like oil reserves) or intangible (like human beliefs or knowledge). o What are the key inflows and/or outflows for each of your stocks? What are their units of measure (hint: they should be the same as your stock’s unit of measure, divided by a unit of time, like ‘billions of tons of oil per year’). o Draw a representation of your stocks and flows, such as the generic one below. You can sketch them by hand.

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Part B: Modeling Global Scenarios in C-ROADS

 Working with a partner, access or download “C-ROADS World Climate” at: https://croadsworldclimate.climateinteractive.org.

 Go to the “Simulation” menu and select “Global” to create a global emissions scenario.

Simulation 1

Many people think that climate change may become an important problem and that we should take a ‘wait-and-see’ approach to addressing it. In other words, we should wait until it becomes a serious problem and if or when it does, then take action.

 Play out a ‘wait-and-see’ scenario by setting the global “Emissions Peak Year” to 2030 and the “Reductions Begin Year” to 2040.  Adjust the “Annual Reduction Rate” until you get to a rate that meets the international climate goal of limiting warming to no more than 1.5 - 2 ˚C above preindustrial levels.  In your notebook, record the following: o How fast do you need to reduce emissions if we wait-and-see? o Is it possible to reach the 1.5 ˚C goal if we wait until 2040 to reduce emissions? Why or why not?  Under the “Simulation” menu, click on “Reset” to return to the no-policy emissions scenario (“Business as Usual”).

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Simulation 2

According to many economists, an emissions reduction rate of 3.5% per year is ambitious but manageable. At rates higher than that, factories, machinery, and utility plants that are still within their useful lifetimes may need to be retired and replaced with cleaner substitutes, which could be expensive. A gradual transition to sustainable low-carbon society can be managed in such a way that we minimize waste and make efficient decisions.

 Make sure your Annual Reduction Rate is set at 3.5% per year.  Adjust your “Emissions Peak Year” and “Reductions Begin Year” in order to achieve the goal of <2 ˚C temperature rise.  Note how soon (which year) do we need to stop emissions from rising and start reducing them in order to meet the goal?

Describe Timing Impact

Think back to the example of a stock represented by water in a jar, with its inflow represented by water flowing into the jar from a faucet. Using this analogy, explain how the

timing of a decision about the inflow (water flowing into a jar or CO2 emissions flowing into

the atmosphere) affects the change over time of the stock (water in the jar or CO2 in the atmosphere).

With your step 1 partner, select a stock and flow example you listed in Part A.

Given what you have learned about how stocks and flows behave over time, record 2-3 responses to the following questions:

How you might expect those stocks to change over time?

How does the timing of decisions affect the stocks?

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Part C: Building an Equitable Transition to a Low-Carbon Society

1. Working with a partner,

 Under the “Simulation” menu, Select “3 Region.” The model will now show CO2 emissions over time for a world divided into Developed (wealthy), Developing A (rapidly developing), and Developing B regions. You can view a list of all of the countries in each region by moving your cursor over the name of each region.

 Decide on a scenario that limits global warming to <2 ˚C that you think is fair and feasible.  Take a screenshot of your settings and post it to ______.  In your post also include your responses to: o What is the resulting “Temperature Increase by 2100”? o What makes this scenario fair and feasible? o You can also include information that is not directly entered into the model, such as transfer of funds from Developed to Developing, sharing of technology.

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End of Unit 2 Note Page

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Unit 3 Lesson: 3-1: Introduction to Stella with a Simple

Model of CO2 Emissions and Removals

Overview: Introduction to Stella

Today, you will open your Stella software tool and get familiar with the major features. First you will view a tutorial on Stella basics. Using the pre-loaded

“Simple Model of the CO2 Emissions and Removals” you will walk through the steps in making, documenting, running two scenarios, and saving your own Stella model. Using Stella language, share the story of the sample models with each other. Then take a screen shot of your model and save your model into your portfolio.

Objectives and Learning Goals

 Provide an introduction and practice with Stella software symbols and concepts. (flow, stock/reservoir, connector, converter, change over time)

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 Learn how to read, draw, set up variables, run, and modify a Stella model.  Learn how to set up and read over-time graphs in Stella.

 Gain experience communicating about Stella and the CO2 story to each other.

Time and Materials

For this module you will use:

 Stella Architect (known here as Stella) software which has been downloaded to your computer.  To get you started each of you has a preloaded Stella model. This will either be on your flash drive or can be downloaded at the following link (dropbox link is: https://www.dropbox.com/s/3wnjh8mwugceeqf/May28Stellalesson3- 1PreloadEmissions%26Removals%20%20%285%29%20%281%29.stmx?dl=0  Internet access for a Stella Tutorial at https://www.iseesystems.com/resources/tutorials/ ;  Module 3-1 Reference and Lab Sheets (3-1-A, 3-1-B, 3-1-C, and 3-1-D)  Overhead projector attached to computer with Stella software and Stella Preloaded models

This lesson is designed to be completed in 60 minutes. You are encouraged to spend some time outside of class practicing the Stella tool on your own or with classmates.

Reflection Questions

1. Why do scientists say that all models we construct are over simplifications? What use do they have for us? 2. What did you find easiest to understand about Stella? Hardest to understand?

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Integration and Scaffolding (How Does this Lesson Fit into the Overall Course?)

As you saw in Unit 1, Systems Thinking provides a set of tools to help increase your understanding of the world around you and build your problem solving capabilities. Stock-Flow maps and understanding feedback are useful tools for considering any issue. As explored in Unit 2, the question of how the Earth’s climate system changes over time and how we can work globally and locally to justly address climate problems is of importance to all of us.

Stella Architect (Stella) software is a set of tools to help us model a system with interactions among elements and observation of how systems change over time. Although all models, even the most complex, are oversimplifications and incomplete, by using systems models one can get closer to seeing “the big picture.” Systems modeling at its best fosters our capacity for “empathetic learning”1 that allows us to take a global and local perspective. Through learning to experiment with models, you can make progress towards understanding what we need to do to address the fact that our climate system is under stress and that we must act within a social justice framework. You will play with the models, and watch how simulated scenarios react to various actions taken over time. Our shared observations will form the basis of a growing understanding of system dynamics that will then help us understand the dynamics of Earth’s real climate system and our place in it.

Where Does This Module Fit With Future Lessons?

This first lesson of Unit 3, Module 3-1, is designed to introduce you to Stella tools by using an example of a simple stock-flow model that is pre-loaded on your flash drive or can be downloaded from dropbox. Stella tools are going to form the basis of much of the work that you will be doing in the remainder of this class. It may take you a while to get the “hang of it” and learn the language and navigation. But

1 This term was used by the late Barry Richmond, one of the early developers of Stella in his work Introduction to

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once you do, it will be a very handy skill for you to have. In the next modules (3- 2&3 combined), you will examine a more detailed model of the carbon cycle in Stella. You will again do some role playing, but this time you will play the part of different elements in the carbon cycle. You may have already studied something similar in your science classes. In these Lessons you will continue to explore the impact of fossil fuel burning and deforestation on the carbon cycle.

In Module 3-4 you will get introduced to modeling specific possible solutions to restore the balance of carbon emissions to get to a more sustainable future. After exploring, you will pick a particular Drawdown Solution (https://www.drawdown.org) to explore. In Units 4 and 5 you will research your Drawdown Solution, explore the links to potential Green Jobs and prepare a final capstone investigative modeling presentation for sharing with your community. One of the major lessons from the Drawdown project is that it will take virtually all of the 80+Solutions studied to achieve the goals. Your Upward Bound program’s set of Upward Bound models, taken together, are meant to help explore and publicize these solutions especially from an environmental justice perspective.

Key Activities

Setting Up

 To begin this lesson activity, first click on the Stella Architect icon on your computers to open Stella and then open the pre-load file. This file may either be on your personal flash drive or can be accessed at the following link: https://www.dropbox.com/s/3wnjh8mwugceeqf/May28Stellalesson3- 1PreloadEmissions%26Removals%20%20%285%29%20%281%29.stmx?dl=0 .

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Your Instructor will tell you how to access this file. This preloaded this file for your use as a reference and to help you practice.

On your flash drive or your on-line folder, save this file under a different name that includes: todays date, your name, Practice 3-1 Emissions and Removals (e.g. June162019BobCPractice3-1CO2Emissions and Removals). Using a standardized method for naming your practice files will help you find and organize your files. You can then feel free to work with these practice files knowing you also have a copy of the original Preloaded file for reference and use as needed.

Stella Tutorial and Lesson Reference Guides

 Once you have Stella open and have named your practice file and can view this model, go to the link for the on-line Stella tutorial. https://www.iseesystems.com/resources/tutorials/ This site has a set of short tutorials that will give you good instructions about how to run Stella. Take about 10 minutes to watch the tutorials especially the first 8 sets of short video’s (labeled 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4 and 2-1, 2-2, 2-3, and 2-4). You can always come back to the tutorial as you proceed through the course.  This Student Manual for Module 3-1 has a number of Reference and Guide Sheets that you can use as we proceed through this lesson and the course:  Lesson 3-1-A: Information Sheet gives a brief description of basic Stella drawing tools and concepts. Some of these you have already been introduced to in Units 1 and 2.  Module 3-1-B: Lab Sheet gives the basic directions for drawing, entering in the equations, and running the Preloaded Stella module Emissions and Removal model.  Reference Sheet 3-1-C provides information about the differing units used in discussing the Carbon Cycle. It will provide useful reference for this lesson and other future lessons.  Reference Sheet 3-1-D outlines the Stella tool bar and gives use of each icon. It is designed to be used for Quick reference throughout the course.

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Working Through Lab Sheet 3-1-B Together

 Go to Lab Sheet 3-1-B and follow along as your instructor leads you through drawing each of the steps in the Lab Sheet. Follow along on your own computers, as your teacher draws this model in Stella on the overhead.  Draw the model on your computer in Stella next to the one already pre- drawn. Use the Stella tutorial as you need to ---as you progress through model building.  Once you have drawn the model, put in the numbers, have all equations correct and taken care of the unit warnings, hit the Run Button.  With assistance from the tutorial or your teacher, make three graphs—one

for atmospheric CO2, one for Emissions and one for Removals.  Identify the stocks, flows, connectors and converters in your model and explain the results to each other.  Don’t be afraid to ask for help and talk to your teacher and fellow students about this task. Your Practice Files are meant to be for practice. It’s easy to correct mistakes. Take turns practicing walking through the icons and buttons that are in the tutorial and on the Guide and Information Sheets for this Module. Practice copying this model. Be sure to save your work frequently.

Writing or Oral Sharing

 Write down in the Documentation Boxes in Stella your notes about the model. Be sure to always click the green arrow save button. When you finish be sure to save your model so you will have it next time.  Divide into pairs and in turn explain the model to your partner. Explain the basic Stella tools and how they work in the “Simple CO2 Emissions and Removal Model.”  As time permits, discuss the Reflection Questions and write your thoughts in the Stella documentation box and save your work.

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Check Out

Feedback

Please complete the questions at

https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/Unit3_1/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course for the students who will take the course next year. Thanks for your help.

Thinking About Building Your Project Portfolio

 As you CHECK OUT for each Lesson, be sure that you have saved a digital copy of your work and that it is saved to your folder. For this lesson, make sure you have saved your work and documentation in a Stella file.

Additional Resource Links and Data tables as related to the module---

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Biosphere_CO2_Flux_23122006.gif#/media/File:Bios phere_CO2_Flux_23122006.gif

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Lesson 3-1-A: Guide Sheet with Introduction to Stella Terms

Stella: is a computer program containing numbers, equations, and rules that together form a description of how we think a system works — it is a kind of simplified mathematical representation of a part of the real world.

The Stella software has two basic modes: map and module. More about this will be explained as we proceed.

 Map view - use this view to lay out the model diagram. No indications of model validity will be visible.

 Model view - use this view to complete model equations and make your model simulate. Validity indicators will appear on all incomplete variables and a dropdown list of errors or warnings will display on the Run Toolbar. The Systems, in the world of STELLA, are composed of a few basic parts that can be seen in the example diagram below:

Terms in the Example Model Defined

A Stock or Reservoir is a model component that stores some quantity, in this case

CO2 atmospheric mass (Gt Carbon). Stocks are system elements that can be measured and that accumulate or decline over time as a result of flows into

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(inflows) and out (outflows) of them. Stocks usually represent stored amounts, while flows represent rate of movement of material, energy, or information. Stocks are frequently referred to as having ‘memory.’ In other words, stocks don’t disappear or appear instantaneously, but rather accumulate or decline as a result of their inflows and outflows. In fact, it is important to note that stocks can only change as a result of their flows. The stock at any instant in time is the result of inflows and outflows integrated over time. If flows are stopped at any time, the stock remains unchanged and, therefore, creates inertia.

A Flow adds to or subtracts from a Stock (or Reservoir). It can be thought of as a pipe with a valve attached to it that controls how much material is added or removed in a given period of time.

The cloud symbols at the ends of the flows signify that the material or quantity from the point of view of the model has a limitless source, or sink.

A Connector is an arrow that establishes a link between different model components. It shows how different parts of the model influence each other. The connector in our example, for instance, tells us that the Flow Removals Rate is dependent on the Flow Emissions in our simple model.

A Converter is something that does a conversion or adds information to some other part of the model. In this case, we are using the Flow Removal Converter to tell us the ratio relationship between emissions and removal rate over time.

To construct a STELLA model, you first draw the model components in Map View and then link them together. Equations and starting conditions are then added in Model X2 View and then the timing is set. This tells the computer how long to run

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the model and how frequently to do the calculations needed to figure out the flow and accumulation of quantities.

When the system is fully constructed, you can essentially press the ‘Run’ button, sit back, and watch what happens. In reality usually you will need to correct many errors, and then run again and again.

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Lesson 3-1-B: Lab Sheet for Preparing A Stock Flow Model

of CO2 Emissions and Removals

Systems diagram for a simple atmospheric CO2 stock-flow system.

Below are directions for a simple stock-flow model with examples of one connector and one converter. As you proceed, don’t be afraid to frequently refer to the Stella on-line tutorial at this link https://www.iseesystems.com/resources/tutorials/. This guide is designed to help you as you follow along with the preparation of the model on the overhead and make the model on your computer in your practice file. Divide into partners so you can discuss this lab together. Be sure to give your model elements different names than those in the model already on the file. In the directions below we put an “X” in front of the element names.

1. In Map View draw the above model just next to the same model that is already drawn on your file. Place a stock (XStock Atmospheric CO2); 2 flows (XFlow Emissions and XFlow Removals), a connector between the 2 flows , and a converter (XConverter Removal Rate). We have named the elements slightly different names from the pre-loaded model names, because each variable must have a unique name. In the documentation area of Stella record short notes about each element. If you wish to color or change fonts you can do this also using the “Paint Brush” icon in Stella. When you are satisfied with your drawing, switch to Model View.

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2. In Model View (X2) you will see that you have messages from Stella that you have a number of elements that are not yet defined. Click on each element in turn, make sure of the name of the element, and put in the initial values

and units listed below for each system element. The CO2 values roughly represent current conditions as we see in Information Sheet 3-1-C. Be sure to save your element definitions values each time you edit by clicking on the green check mark. Once you have no more elements to define and no more warnings, then you can proceed to Step 3. a. XStock Atmospheric CO2:

i. Unit: Gt CO2 ii. Initial value: 3000 b. XFlow Emissions:

i. Unit: Gt CO2/year ii. Value: 40 c. XFlow Removals: Note: Because we have the Connector between Flow Emissions and Flow Removals, we are defining Flow Removals in relationship to Flow Emissions, with Flow Removals being a so called “dependent variable,” and the Flow Emissions as the “independent variable”. Here for simplicity, we have set the “Flow Emissions” to a constant, 40, but if we consider a more realistic model, it will become variable. With the constant emissions of 40, the Flow Removel is simply 40 divided by 2, and the model will always compute that as 20.

i. Unit: Gt CO2/year ii. Value: "XFlow Emissions"/"XConverter Removal Rate" d. XConverter Removal Rate i. Unit: dimensionless ii. Initial value: 2

3. Once you’ve set up the model with initial values and have no more messages from Stella about undefined elements or units. Using the Module icon, draw a Sector boundary around your copy of the model. Give your Sector a name (e.g. Chelsea’s Model) in the place above the Sector boundary.

4. Run Number 1: Hit Play and watch what happens to the Atmospheric CO2 stock. Below is a screen shot of this initial Run. 5. Adding Graphs Once you have gotten your model to run, review the Stella tutorial 2-2 on how to place graphs in your model. https://www.iseesystems.com/resources/tutorials/

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We will keep the settings for the time unit to years, and the total time period to 100 years, as in the pre-loaded model. Place 3 graphs to plot these 3 quantities over the total time period:

XStock AtmosphericCO2 XFlow Emissions XFlow Removals Once you have the graphs, run the model again. Take a screen shot of your model results. Write the story of the Module 1 down in the documentation section that appears when you are in Map View and you click on an element. Save and verbally discuss the results with your partner. What happens to CO2 when emissions remain higher than removals for 100 years?

6. Changing the Model: In Model X2 View change the model slightly to show a scenario in which emissions and removals are equal to the same constant number (40) over time. To do this, we only need to change the XFlow Removals converter to a 1 instead of a 2. All of the other elements remain the same. Be sure to save your values by clicking on the green check mark.

a. XStock Atmospheric CO2:

i. Unit: Gt CO2 ii. Initial value: 3000 b. XFlow Emissions:

i. Unit: Gt CO2/year ii. Value: 40 c. XFlow Removals:

i. Unit: Gt CO2/year ii. Value: "XFlow-Emissions"/"XConverter—Removal Rate" d. XConverter-Removal Rate = 1 (Note: We change this to 1 rather than a 2 and thus Removals are the same as Emissions over the period) 7. Once you have made the modification, and saved it, hit the Run button and watch the graphs and model change. Take a screen shot of the second model Run. Discuss this model with your partner and the group. Why do the graphs look flat over the 100 years in which emissions and removals are constant and in a balanced system?

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Run 1: Result Over 100 years (Removals are ½ of Emissions)

Run 2: Results Emissions and Removals are in Balance Over 100 years

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Lesson 3-1-C: Reference Sheet for Understanding Units and Terms We Are Using, and Relationship to Common Measures of Discussion of Climate

The different terms and units involving Carbon and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and the atmosphere can be confusing. The information below is for reference and use throughout the course. It is not expected that you remember all the relationships, but you will need to

be able to convert Carbon to CO2 and be mindful of the different relationships used to measure change over time. For reference here are a few unit descriptions and how they relate to each other and our discussion of climate. This sheet will prove handy as we proceed through the course.

1. Carbon and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) are related but not the same. Carbon is one of the

two elements needed to make CO2. In units of gigatons, or Gt, 1 Gt of Carbon = 3.66 Gt

CO2. In preparing our equations for Stella we need to always check whether we are

referring to CO2 or Carbon. Both are expressed in gigatons (Gt) which is defined as 1 billion metric tons.

2. Carbon dioxide (CO2) currently constitutes about 0.041% by volume of the atmosphere, which is equal to a concentration of approximately 410 ppm by volume. We know that 1ppm = 7.81 Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide. Therefore, 410 ppm corresponds to

approximately 3202 Gt of CO2, which you can calculate by multiplying 410 times 7.81.

You will see that in Lesson 3-1 we use 3000 Gt of CO2 for our initial value of

atmospheric CO2 in our practice model. In the next Lesson 3-2 of the carbon cycle, you

will use a Carbon measure rather than a CO2 measure.

3. The Carbon content in Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is approximately 3202/3.66, which equals approximately 870 Gt of Carbon. Note: Dividing by 3.66 is the same as multiplying by

0.27 so the Carbon content is 27% of the CO2.

4. You have also seen CO2 concentration expressed in parts per million (ppm) or parts per million by volume (ppmv). Each 1 ppmv (part per million by volume) of the atmosphere

weighs approximately 2.1357 Gt. of CO2

5. As we learned in Unit 2, 2019 CO2 levels have reached the dangerously high 410 ppm. Most recent April readings are actually 413.

6. The chart below displays the growth of CO2 from about 280 ppm in 1750 to the current levels of approximately 410 ppm in early 2019.

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7. Prior to 1750, global annual mean CO2 concentration remained within 20% of 280 ppm during the entire 10,000 years since agriculture began. Then from 1750 onwards up to the current century, the increase to 410 ppm as of early 2019 represents more than a 46% increase! (410 – 280)/280. This is a very large increase to happen so rapidly! 8. The present concentration is the highest in the last 800,000 and possibly even the last 20 million years. 9. The increase has been caused by human activities particularly the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

10. This increase of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere has

produced the current episode of global warming. About 30–40% of the CO2 released by humans into the atmosphere dissolves into oceans, rivers and lakes, which has also produced ocean acidification. https://www.climate.gov/news- features/understanding- climate/climate-change- atmospheric-carbon-dioxide

http://www.grisanik.com/blog/how-much-carbon-is-in-the-atmosphere/

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Lesson 3-1-D: Reference Sheet: Quick Walkthrough of the Stella Archtect Tool Bar (We encourage you to explore using your practice files)

This is the stock icon with drop down options about the types of stocks. We will usually use the simple Stock choice in the menu

This is the icon for the Flow. This can be either a one way flow or a biflow that goes both ways. We will use both depending on model. This is the icon for the Converter. There is a simple converter and a delay converter and a summing converter. We will start using a simple converter This is the Connecter icon. There is also an Info Connecter.

This is the Module icon. Its menu box includes the Module, Sector and Placeholder choices. We will be using the Sector tool to draw around our models This is the Ghost icon. It is used to represent a stock in a model when the drawing would be awkward because the elements are far apart in the drawing. We do not use this in Unit 3. You might later This is used to insert a text box, or a label for a connector, or to make a navagation button. This icon allows you to input graphic objects such as pictures into the model screen from a file or clipboard. This may be handy for when you are preparing your presentation

This icon is used to put graphs into your model which are very important to display what happens to your varibales over time when you run your model. When you click on this a graph will appear. Drag the graph where

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you want it. Once you have a graph click on it to open a menu as below and set up your chart. If you click on the green + sign a list of varibales will appear

This icon which is accessed in the Model Mode is a tool to insert a table. When you click you get the small icon and a blnk table comes up. Click on it to get a menu of options. Click on the green + signs to get the variable list to add to your table that displays the varible over time that you have specified for the model to run This icon is a toggle that turns on and off the numeric display about the values of the elements in the model.

These are the two basic icons that you will toggle between. You will start with Map View to draw in Stella. Then you will

go to Model View X2 to define your elements and the settings for the model. You must be in the proper View to use many of the tools. You will soon develop an understanding of what to do in each View. This icon puts you in edit mode where you can change variables or specifications or settings. Simply click on the element that you wish to edit This icon displays the most recent run results..

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Click on this Explore icon to get a screen that allows you to pick variables for which to see results from up to 6 pervious runs of the simulation

This icon called Causal Lense allows you to see results for selected variables over the time period to get a cleare

This is the icon for the Stella Interface for presentations. It is very useful tool because it allows you to run your model from a website without having access to the Stella sofware. Click here for an example of a model that uses this tool. Its hosted on the isee exhange website. We are hoping that some of your models will be able to be published on this site. This is the Green Arrow that you must click to save your equation entries or edits

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This is the Run Button that is used to Run simulations of the model and a screen shot of the Model Settings. In this screen you enter the number of years to run the Model and other specs for the simulation

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Unit 3 Lesson 3-2&3: An Empathetic Inquiry Deeper Dive into Modeling the Carbon Cycle in Stella

Introduction One of the key developers of Stella Systems modeling (Barry Richmond) referred to systems modeling as “empathetic inquiry”? 2 He wrote “Being able to empathize is a skill that can be developed—and is in some ways, the ultimate Systems Thinking skill because it leads to extending the boundary of true caring beyond self (a skill almost everyone could use more of).” Empathy is defined as the capacity to understand or feel what another person or being is experiencing from within their

2 Richmond Barry, (1992). An Introduction to Systems Thinking: Ithink Software. With Steve Peterson and Chris Charyk. High Performance Systems; (2000). The "thinking" in systems thinking: Seven Essential Skills. Pegasus Communications. ISBN 1-883823-48-X

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frame of reference, that is, the capacity to place oneself in another's position. General systems theory thinker, Joanna Macy, known for her “Work that Reconnects” and the “Council of all Beings” has said: “The central purpose of the “Work that Reconnects” is to help people uncover and experience their innate connections with each other and with the systemic, self-healing powers of the web of life, so that they may be enlivened and motivated to play their part in creating a sustainable civilization3.

In the next lessons you are invited to expand your capacity to place yourselves in the position of others by participating in a Carbon Cycle Role Play in which you represent the basic elements of the carbon cycle system. Lessons 3-2&3 are combined lessons that can be completed in one two hour block or split between two one hour sessions.

Through an “empathetic inquiry” role play you will learn about the basic components of the carbon cycle system and observe the impact of various levels of fossil fuel burning and deforestation. You will also get a chance to practice Stella. Throughout you will document your observations in the Documentation Box in Stella and save the file to your portfolio folder.

3 https://workthatreconnects.org/about-joanna-macy/ https://workthatreconnects.org/ http://www.rainforestinfo.org.au/deep-eco/coab.htm

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Objectives and Learning Goals

 Gain more understanding of the climate system and the issues of carbon cycle imbalance  Develop skill in “empathetic inquiry”. This will help you understand possible Drawdown Solutions to the climate disruption  Practice drawing with Stella software symbols and tools (Flow, Stock/reservoir, Connector, Converter) through examining a more detailed carbon cycle model  Continue to gain experience communicating about Systems Modeling and the carbon cycle story

Time and Materials

For this module you will use:

 Stella Architect software which has been downloaded to your computer with a pre-made saved file. This may be already on your personal flash drive or you may download it from: https://www.dropbox.com/s/hs2uw6riuamt9k3/May28Preload3- 2%263Carbon%20Cycle.stmx?dl=0  Module 3-2&3 Information and Lab Sheets (3-2&3-A, 3-2&3-B, 3-2&3-C, 3- 2&3-D)  Internet access for a Stella Tutorial at https://www.iseesystems.com/resources/tutorials/  Overhead projector attached to computer with Stella software and Stella Preloaded models

It is expected that Modules 3-2&3 can be completed in 120 minute block or two 60 minute sessions

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Reflection Questions 1. How would you explain the basics of the carbon cycle to someone younger or older than yourself? 2. What do you think Barry Richmond meant by talking about the concept of “empathetic inquiry”? and Joanna Macy means by the “Work that Reconnects?” What does “empathetic inquiry” mean to you?

Scaffolding and Integration with Previous Lessons

In Lessons 3-2&3 you will continue to build skill in Stella, but also continue to build skills as “empathetic inquiry” scientists. You will take a deeper dive into the carbon cycle by assuming roles representing as the various elements in the preloaded Stella Carbon Cycle Model. Every day there is a critical drama involving interactions and exchanges at every level of the Earth.

Lesson 3-2&3-A Information Sheet includes copies of several renditions of the Carbon Cycle that are copied from public use websites such as NASA’s Earth Observing Site https://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle and U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) https://www.ipcc.ch/ . These renditions are all somewhat different, but they tell the same story. Stella is a very good tool for helping to understand the Carbon Cycle model. This lesson utilizes a pre-loaded a model, similar to that drawn in the first box in the Information Sheet 3-2&3-A copied from an IPCC report. This model provides an example to illustrate the way the carbon cycle system works and how it responds to human induced changes as fossil fuel burning and deforestation.

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Where Does This Lesson Fit With Future Lessons?

Both Stella software tools and understanding the carbon cycle will form the basis of much of the work that you will be doing in the remainder of this class. Lesson 3-4 provides an introduction to using Drawdown Solutions https://www.drawdown.org/ and you will move on to exploring and modeling solutions to restore the carbon balance to get to a more sustainable future.

In Unit 4, you will identify one or more “Drawdown Solutions” https://www.drawdown.org that are of special interest to you. These Solutions of interest will form the basis of your Stella modeling project presentation in which you will work in Units 4 and 5. Key Activities

Steps of Lesson 3-2&3

 First open the Stella file entitled that is labeled “Lesson 3-2&3 Pre-load.” Depending on your class this will either be on your computers, on your personal class flash drive or you can access it at: https://www.dropbox.com/s/hs2uw6riuamt9k3/May28Preload3- 2%263Carbon%20Cycle.stmx?dl=0  Re-Name and save the pre-load Stella file with a different name that includes: Date, Your Name, the word Practice and Module Number (eg. June62019ChelseaMPracticeModule3-2&3CarbonCycle). This practice file is meant for your use. Use the practice files that you create to freely experiment with drawing in Stella and save your practice work for next time.

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 On the pre-loaded Carbon Cycle Model you will notice that each of the elements in the Carbon Cycle Model has a number (1 to 17). These numbers are arbitrary and are used simply to identify the elements for our Carbon Model Role Play, Your Instructor will help you count off so that each of you is assigned at least one of the elements in the Stella model.  There are also background roles (with information in Lesson 3-2&3-B Lab Sheet) for the Sun (B-1) and Carbon (B-2) that will also be assigned. In the drama of the Carbon Cycle Play each of you has an important role to play. In cases in which the class is larger or smaller than the number of roles, please begin the count-off again and 2 persons will share the roles or 1 person will take more than one role.  The Lab Sheets 3-2&3-C contain the “Scripts” for each of the elements in the Carbon Cycle Model Role Play. Take time to review the material with a special focus on the element(s) that you will represent.  Depending on time available and your teacher’s direction you will either read the “Script” or prepare a few sentences in your own words to describe your element to the class.  As you present the element to the class you will point it out on the Pre-load Carbon Cycle Model on the model on the overhead that your teacher puts up.  As the Carbon Model Play proceeds, if possible practice building your Stella skills by drawing and defining the elements on your practice file as they are presented. Don’t be afraid to make mistakes. It’s easy to correct mistakes and we all make them as we are learning. In fact some folks think we learn the most from our mistakes  Once everyone has played their part and all the elements have been explained you will proceed to add the graphs and run the model with various levels of fossil fuel burning and deforestation. See the lab sheet for directions.  Be sure to save your practice file explorations to your folder. You can work on this Practice file again throughout the class or save the file under a different name to try different things in Stella.

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Writing or Oral Sharing: Sharing the Story of the Carbon Model.

 To prepare for your role, use the information in Module 3-2&3 Lab Sheets. Take a minute to think about the role of your element, and prepare a sign card that identifies your element. Read the Script or prepare a short explanation in your own words of the element (s) you are representing. Explain whether you are a Stock, or Flow with or without Connecters and Converters. What are your basic properties and what are your key relationships?  As you present your Carbon Cycle Model element to the class, point to it in the model displayed on the Overhead and explain in Stella terms how to draw and define the element.  As you follow along record your notes in the documentation area for each element in Map view in Stella. If you have time to experiment try copying the model elements as they are discussed. Just be sure to give your model component different names than the preloaded model uses. It’s suggested that you put an X in front of the names so they do not overlap with the preload variables already defined.  Once you and your classmates have introduced all the elements in turn, it’s time to experiment with changing the levels of fossil fuel burning and deforestation as directed on the lab sheets.  Run the models for 50, 100, and 200 years and observe and discuss the changes in the Atmosphere, CO2 concentration and temperature over time in the graphs in the Carbon Model.  Record your observations in your Stella documentation space for Fossil Fuel Burning and Deforestation.

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Check Out

Thinking About Building Your Project Portfolio

 As you CHECK OUT for each Module, be sure that you have saved a digital copy of your work and that it is saved to your folder. For this lesson, make sure you have saved your work and documentation in a Stella file.

Feedback

Please complete the questions at https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/Unit3_2-3/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

Additional Resource Links as related to the module https://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle

https://climatekids.nasa.gov/nasa-research/

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Lesson 3-2&3-B: Lab Role Play Introduction

Carbon Cycle Model

The following Lab Guide Sheets (3-2&3-C and 3-2&3-D) provide the “scripts” for the Carbon Cycle Model Role Play. The Stella Model Script identifies each element in the model and gives the associated Stella equations. Through the role play in which you will represent one or more of the Carbon Model elements, you will gain a deeper understanding of the earth’s climate system. Through reviewing the model components together with your classmates, you will also have an opportunity to gain a greater understanding of how Stella works. You will learn how to define variables so they can be used in the simulation models.

If you are practicing drawing your own copy of the model in your Practice File, next to the pre-loaded model, just remember that you will need to put an X in front of your variable names to make each variable name unique, and put a Sector frame around your copy of the model when you have finished it.

For this Role Play there are at least 19 Very Important Parts to be played and each of you will be assigned one or more roles. These are:

 Sun (B-1) and Carbon (B-2) (background roles not in model per se)  There are 5 Stocks in the preload model (1-5)  There are 9 Flows (6 to 15) 3 of which have attached Converters  There are additional Converters (16 to 17) to specify conversion of

Atmospheric Carbon to CO2 Concentration and Temperature in Celsius.

These take information in the Atmosphere stock and convert it to CO2 and to Temperature—two elements of special interest.

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Lesson 3-2&3-C: Background Role Play Scripts for Our Sun and Carbon This sheet provides background information for the Carbon Cycle Model and has at least two additional roles to be assigned (B-1 Sun and B-2 Carbon). For the Sun more than one person may need to be assigned) B-1 Script for the Sun A Very Good Day to you all, I’m ______. To provide background for the dive into the Carbon Cycle I (or “We” if more than 1 person) will represent the Sun today. Located 93 million miles away, the sun is the source of all energy on Earth. The relationships modeled in the carbon cycle reflect the characteristics of the sun and the earth’s relationship to the sun, based on its nearness to the sun and the tilt of its orbit. The earth’s climate system has evolved over eons to a relative equilibrium in such a manner that makes it ideal for the life forms currently found on Earth. As conditions change in the capacity of the Earth to absorb and emit carbon into the atmosphere, the Earth’s climate system, will change and seek a new equilibrium that will not be as ideal for current life forms.

Scientists calculate the total amount of energy I radiate to the Earth, by measuring the quantity of solar energy per second reaching every square meter of Earth and then multiplying that by the total surface area of a sphere with radius equal to the radius of Earth’s orbit. Based on these measures I give the Earth a huge amount of energy. In one second, I produce enough energy for almost 500,000 years of the current needs of Earth’s so-called civilization. This means I continuously pelt the earth with 35,000 times the amount of energy required by all those on earth who now use electricity on the planet! The key is finding how to harness my energy on Earth. The good news is that the Earth Engineers and Scientists have been doing their jobs. There is actually the capacity to harness some of the energy that I radiate each day to generate enough energy to power the needs Earth has with existing Earth known technology. For example, Earth Scientists have estimated that concentrated solar would take only as much as the square on the US map to provide all U.S. energy needs. https://www.solarpowerrocks.com/solar-politics/how- far-could-68b-go-in-securing-our-energy-independence-pretty-damn-far/

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The question is more do the citizens of Earth have the will to take advantage of the daily energy that I provide each day.

B-2 Role Play Background Information for Carbon

Carbon: Hello, I’m ______and I’m representing

the Carbon today. I was forged in the heart of aging stars, and I am the fourth most abundant element in the Universe. On Earth, I’m mostly stored in rocks, about 65,500 billion metric tons. I’m also in the ocean, atmosphere, plants, soil, and fossil fuels. I am an essential part of life on Earth. I comprise about half the dry weight of most living organisms. I play an important role in the structure, biochemistry, and nutrition of all living cells. Living biomass holds about 550 gigatons of me (carbon), most of which is made of terrestrial plants (wood), while some 1,200 gigatons of carbon are stored in the terrestrial biosphere as dead biomass.

I flow between each reservoir (stock) in an exchange called the Carbon Cycle, which has slow and fast components. Any change in “My Cycle” that shifts me out of one reservoir (stock) puts more of me into the other reservoirs. Changes that put more of me in my gas form into the atmosphere result in warmer temperatures on Earth. https://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle https://climatekids.nasa.gov/nasa-research/

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Lesson 3-2&3-D: Role Play Script and Stella Drawing Directions

Carbon Cycle Model

Note in this model we are using Gt Carbon. Remember that 1 Gt carbon = 3.66

Gt. C02.

There are 5 Stocks in the Carbon Model. These are presented first and they are numbered 1 to 5. The Stocks are represented by the color “Red”

1. Hello, I’m ____ and I represent the Stock, 1.Atmosphere Atmosphere, in this Carbon Cycle Model. I am a = 750 layer or a set of layers of gases surrounding a planet or other material body. I’m held in place by Units: Gt the gravity of that body. On Earth, I am composed of nitrogen (about 78%), oxygen (about 21%), argon (about 0.9%), carbon dioxide (0.04%) and other gases in trace amounts. Without this particular composition on Earth there could not be the life on Earth as it has evolved over eons. I help to protect living organisms from genetic damage by solar ultraviolet radiation, solar wind and cosmic rays. My current composition on earth is the product of billions of years of biochemical modification of the paleo-atmosphere by living organisms.

In this model I’m initially set at 750 Gt. 2. Surface Ocean: Hello, I’m ______and I represent 2. Surface Ocean the Stock, (or reservoir), of the Surface Ocean. My circulation is driven primarily by surface winds. Winds = 750 blow from areas of high atmospheric pressure to regions Unit: Gt of low atmospheric pressure and this causes me to change. These winds are generally transferring heat

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from areas where there is excess incoming radiation (the tropics and subtropics) to temperate and higher latitude regions where there is a net loss of heat. My low or high pressure situation differs depending on location. The distribution of pressure on the Earth’s ocean surface is zonal or meridional, with high-pressure bands covering the subtropics and polar-regions and low-pressure bands, the equatorial regions, and subpolar regions.

In this model I’m initially set at 750 Gt.

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth103/node/684

3. Deep Ocean: Hello, I’m ______and I represent the 3.Deep Ocean Stock, (or reservoir), of the Deep Ocean. In the oceanic carbon cycle (or marine carbon cycle) I am = 37,600 composed of processes that exchange carbon between Unit = Gt various pools within the ocean as well as between the atmosphere, Earth interior, and the seafloor. The total

active pool of carbon in the Earth's surface for durations of less than 10,000 years is roughly 40,000 gigatons C (Gt C, a gigaton is one billion tons, or the weight of approximately 6 million blue whales).

About 95% (~38,000 Gt C) of this Carbon stored in me (Deep Ocean), mostly as dissolved inorganic carbon. The speciation of dissolved inorganic carbon in the marine carbon cycle is primary controller of acid-base chemistry in the oceans.

In this model I’m initially set at 37,600 Gt.

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4. Hello, I’m ______and I represent the Stock, (or 4.Terrestrial_ reservoir), of the Terrestrial Biosphere. I am part Biosphere of the Earth system comprising all ecosystems and living organisms on land including derived dead organic matter = 575 such as litter, soil organic matter Unit: Gt

Carbon is cycled through me (the terrestrial biosphere) with varying speeds, depending on what form it is stored in and under which circumstances. It is exchanged most quickly with the atmosphere, although small amounts of carbon leave the terrestrial biosphere and enter the oceans as dissolved organic carbon (DOC).

Most carbon in me (the terrestrial biosphere) is stored in my forests. My forests hold 86% of the planet's terrestrial above-ground carbon and my forest soils also hold 73% of the planet's soil carbon. Carbon stored inside plants can be transferred into other organisms during plant consumption. When animals eat plants, for example, the organic carbon stored in the plants is converted into other forms and utilized inside the animals. The same is true for bacteria and other heterotrophs. Dead plant material in or above soils remains there for some time before being respired by heterotrophs. Thus carbon is transferred in every step of the food chain from one organism to another.

In this model I’m initially set at 575 Gt.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrestrial_biological_car bon_cycle

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5. Soil Carbon: Hello, I’m ______and I represent the 5. Soil Carbon Stock, (or reservoir), of Soil Carbon. Representing soil, I am a very important part of the Carbon Cycle. = 1400 World-wide I hold around twice the amount of carbon Unit: Gt that is found in the atmosphere and in vegetation. Organic material is manufactured by plants using carbon

dioxide from the air and water. Plants (and animals, as part of the food chain), die and return to me (the soil) where they are decomposed and recycled. Minerals are released into the soil and carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere.

In this model I’m initially set at 1400 Gt.

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth103/node/684

Flows Role Scripts with Converters and Connecters

Units: Gt/yr. There are 9 flows in the Carbon Cycle drama 3 of which have Converters to determine their flow rate. These are numbered 6 to 15. Flows are in blue and their Converters are in Green

Flows Element Script Definitions and Directions Flows Names and Equations

6. Gas Exchange: Hello, I’m ______and I represent the 6. Gas Exchange Flow, (or flux), of the Gas Exchange. I am a biflow meaning I flow two ways. I represent an exchange = between the atmosphere and the ocean. Gas Exchange (2. Surface Ocean- between the atmosphere and the oceans removes carbon dioxide and sequesters some of it for long periods of 1.Atmosphere)/ time in the deep sea. 6C. Gas Exchange

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My Gas Exchange Bi-flow rate is determined by the Converter values of the Surface Ocean- Atmosphere divided by the

Gas Exchange Converter. 6C. Gas Exchange To draw me in Stella choose “Biflow” option from the Converter Flow Menu and draw a Biflow between 2. Surface Ocean and 1.Atmosphere. = 75

Now draw Connectors between me 6. Gas Exchange, and Units: Gt/year each of the Stocks 2. Surface Ocean and 1. Atmosphere.

I have a Converter named 6C. Gas Exchange Converter. This is connected to me.

I’m defined in the model equation as follows

6. Gas Exchange = (2.Surface Ocean- 1.Atmosphere)/6C. Gas Exchange Converter

The 6C. Gas Exchange Converter

= 75

Units: Gt/year

7. Downwelling: Hello, I’m ______and I represent the Flow, 7. Downwelling = (or flux), of Downwelling. I’m the process of accumulation and sinking of higher density material beneath lower density 2.Surface_Ocean * material, such as cold or saline water beneath warmer or 7C.Downwelling fresher water or cold air beneath warm air. In the carbon cycle model I (Downwelling) am a Flow whose rate is Converter determined by the value of the Stock, 2.Surface Ocean, 7C. Downwelling times the value of the 7C.Downwelling Converter. Draw me 7. Downwelling coming from the Stock, 2. Converter Surface_Ocean. I have a Connector from 2. Surface Ocean = .03 to 7. Downwelling. I also have a Converter, called 7C. Downwelling Converter, and a Connecter from 7C. Units: Gt/year

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Downwelling Converter to 7.Downwelling. The rate of my 7.Downwelling Converter is set at .03 Gt/yr

8. Biopump: Hello, I’m ______and I represent the Flow, 8.Biopump (or flux), of Biopump. I’m a biological pump that in my simplest form, is the ocean's biologically driven = 4 sequestration of carbon from the atmosphere to the Units: Gt/year ocean interior and seafloor sediments. I’m a part of the oceanic carbon cycle responsible for the cycling of organic matter formed mainly by phytoplankton during photosynthesis (soft-tissue pump),

as well as the cycling of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) formed into shells by certain organisms such as plankton and mollusks(carbonate pump). To represent my Flow, 8.Biopump, draw a one-way Flow from the Stock, 2.Surface Ocean to the 3.Deep Ocean. Notice that for my Flow, Biopump, a Converter is not used as Biopump is defined here by a simple number.

I’m defined in the Stella model equation as follows

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8.Biopump = 4 Units: Gt/year

9. Upwelling: Hello, I’m ______and I represent the 9.Upwelling = Flow, (or flux), of Upwelling. I’m involved in massive movements of water in which carbon is carried. The 3.Deep_Ocean * deep ocean floor looks placid and undisturbed by 9C.Upwelling movement, except for the occasional bottom-dwelling creatures. But, behind the calm, there are massive Converter movements of water. And in that water, carbon is carried. Through deep sea currents dissolved carbon is 9C.Upwelling transferred around the globe. My upwelling process journey can take hundreds of years, until the carbon Converter reaches certain parts of the polar and equatorial regions. = .0007048

To represent me, Upwelling, in our Carbon Cycle Units: Gt/year Model, draw a one-way Flow from the Stock, 3.Deep Ocean to the Stock, 2.Surface Ocean.

The amount of my Flow, Upwelling, is determined by the Stock 3.Deep Ocean times the 9C.Upwelling Converter. To represent this relationship there is a Connector from 3.Deep_Ocean to 9.Upwelling.

There is also a Converter named 9C.Upwelling_Converter. There is a Connecter from 9C.Upwelling Converter to 9.Upwelling.

My, Upwelling, equation is thus 9.Upwelling = 3.Deep_Ocean * 9C.Upwelling Converter

The 9C.Upwelling Converter is set at a rate of = .0007048 Units: Gt/year

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10. Photosynthesis: Hello, I’m ______and I represent the 10.Photosynthesis Flow, (or flux), of Photosynthesis. Plants = 110 and photosynthetic algae and bacteria use energy from

sunlight to combine carbon dioxide (C02) from the Units: Gt/year

atmosphere with water (H2O) to form carbohydrates.

These carbohydrates store energy. Oxygen (O2) is a byproduct that is released into the atmosphere. This process is known as photosynthesis.

Without my process of Photosynthesis humans could not live as we need Oxygen to breath.

To represent my Flow, Photosynthesis, there is a one- way Flow coming from the Stock, 1.Atmosphere and going to the Stock 4.Terrestrial Biosphere.

Notice in this model, my Flow, 10.Photosynthesis, does not use a Converter as it is defined by a simple number. My Flow, Photosynthesis, is defined in the Stella equation as follows:

10.Photosynthesis = 110 Units: Gt/year

11. Respiration: Hello, I’m ______and I represent the Flow, 11.Respiration (or flux), of Respiration. My process involves organisms exchanging gases, especially oxygen and carbon dioxide, with = 55 the environment. In air-breathing vertebrates, respiration Units: Gt/year takes place in the lungs. I’m intimately linked to photosynthesis. Cellular respiration releases carbon dioxide

into the environment, photosynthesis pulls carbon dioxide

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out of the atmosphere.

Carbon is released to the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels, organic respiration, wood burning, and volcanic eruptions. The uptake of carbon from the atmosphere occurs through carbon dissolution into the oceans, Photosynthesis, and the consequent storing of

carbon in various forms such as peat bogs, oil, materials, accumulation, and formation of minerals, such as coal and copper. It also happens when carbohydrates are changed into carbon dioxide.

To represent my Flow, Respiration, draw a one-way flow coming from the Stock, 4.Terrestrial Biosphere and going to the Stock 1.Atmosphere.

Notice in this model, my Flow, Respiration, does not use a Converter as it is defined by a simple number.

My Flow, Respiration, is defined in the Stella equation as follows:

11.Respiration = 55 Units: Gt/year

12. Death (Burial): Hello, I’m ______and I represent the 12.Death Flow, (or flux), of Death. I’m related to but not the same as the word “Death” that will involve us all. = 55 Organic carbon burial is an input of energy for Unit: Gt/year underground biological environments and can regulate oxygen in the atmosphere at long time-scales (> 10,000 years). Burial can only take place if organic carbon arrives to the sea floor, making continental shelves and coastal margins the main storage of organic carbon from terrestrial and oceanic primary production. Fjords, or cliffs created by glacial erosion, have also been identified as areas of significant carbon burial, with rates one hundred times greater than the ocean average. Particulate organic carbon is buried in oceanic sediments,

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creating a pathway between a rapidly available carbon pool in the ocean to its storage for geological timescales. Once carbon is sequestered in the seafloor, it is considered blue carbon. Burial rates can be calculated as the difference between the rate at which organic matter sinks and the rate at which it decomposes. To represent my Flow, Death, draw a one-way flow coming from the Stock, 4.Terrestrial Biosphere and going to the Stock 5.Soil Carbon

Notice in this model, my Flow, Death, does not use a Converter as it is defined by a simple number. My Flow, Death, is defined in the Stella equation as follows: 12.Death = 55 Unit: Gt/year

13. Decay: Hello, I’m ______and I represent the 13. Decay Flow, (or flux), of Decay. Particles of organic carbon (POC) are decomposed by a series of microbe-driven = 55 processes. My processes occur before Death or burial. Degradation of POC also results in microbial methane production which is the main gas hydrate on the continental margins.

To represent my Flow, Decay, there is a one-way Flow coming from the Stock, 5.Soil Carbon and going to the Stock 1.Atmosphere. Notice in this model, my Flow, Decay, does not use a Converter as it is defined by a simple number. My Flow, Decay, is defined in the Stella equation as follows: 13.Decay = 55 Unit: Gt/year

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Unit: Gt/year

14. Fossil Fuel Burning: Hello, I’m ______and I represent 14. Fossil Fuel the Flow, (or flux), of Fossil Fuel Burning. I consist of Burning fuels formed by natural processes such as anaerobic decomposition of buried dead organisms. I am very old. = 0 The age of the organisms from which I am formed is typically millions of years, and sometimes exceeds 650 Once the role play million years. As such I contain high percentages of introductions are carbon and include coal, petroleum and natural gas. My complete, set and burning by humans is the largest source of emissions of differing rates over carbon dioxide, which is one of the greenhouse gases time to see that allows radiative forcing and contributes to global differences made by warming. various rates of burning over time.

0—pre-industrial

5---1990’s

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To represent my Flow, Fossil Fuel Burning, there is a one- 8---Closer to today way flow coming from the Cloud and going to the Stock Unit: Gt/year 1.Atmosphere . Notice in this model, I do not use, a Converter as in this model I am defined by a simple number. We could use a Converter to tell Stella to do something more complex for me related to change over time, but you Start me at “0” are going to change me by hand. which can be thought of as “pre-industrial” I am defined at the start of this model as 0 as it was in times. pre-industrial times when I was largely left in the ground. When I am set to 0 in the Stella model the atmosphere of Next set me to “5” the Earth is in a state of “equilibrium.” Set me to which is about what different levels and run for various lengths of time, 50, it was in 1991.

100, 200 years and see what happens. Next try me at “8”

The starting Stella equation as follows: which is closer to the levels of today. Fossil Fuel Burning = 0 Observe and record what happens to the Atmosphere,

CO2 concentration and Temperature

15. Deforestation 15. Deforestation: Hello, I’m ______and I represent the Flow, (or flux), of Deforestation. In = 0 pre-industrial deforestation I am cut down and my forest trees time removed from land which is then converted to a non- forest use. Deforestation can involve conversion of Differing Numbers forest land to farms, ranches or urban use. can be set and About 31% of Earth's land surface is covered by forests. differing rates over Deforestation can occur for several reasons: trees can be time to see cut down to be used for building or sold as fuel (sometimes differences made by

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in the form of charcoal or timber), while much cleared land various rates of is used as pasture for livestock and plantation. The removal Deforestation over of trees without sufficient reforestration has resulted in time. habitat damage, biodiversity loss, and aridity. It has adverse impacts on biosequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. 0

When land is deforested and my forest trees cut down 2 typically there are serious consequences. There are significant adverse soil erosion and frequently the land 4 degrades into wasteland. Disregard of ascribed value, lax Unit: Gt/year forest management, and deficient environmental laws are some of the factors that lead to large-scale deforestation. Deforestation causes extinction, changes to climatic

conditions, desertification, and displacement of populations, as observed by current conditions and in the past through the fossil record. The current most concentrated deforestation occurs in tropical rainforests. More than half of all plant and land animal species in the world live in tropical forests. Between 2000 and 2012, 2.3 million square kilometres (890,000 sq mi) of forests around the world were cut down. As a result of deforestation, only 6.2 million square kilometres (2.4 million square miles) remain of the original 16 million square kilometres (6 million square miles) of tropical rainforest that formerly covered the Earth. An area the size of a football field is cleared from the Amazon rainforest every minute, with 136 million acres (55 million hectares) of rainforest cleared for animal agriculture overall.

To represent my Flow, Deforestation, draw a one-way flow coming from the Cloud and going to the Stock 1.Atmosphere Notice in this model, my Flow, Deforestration: is defined by a simple number and does not use a converter. My Flow,

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Deforestation, is defined at the start of this model as 0. The model when Deforestation is set to 0 represents pre- industrial times before the great forests of the temperate regions had been cut down. We will set it to different levels (0, 2, 4) and observe the impact over various lengths of time, 50, 100, 200 years.

The starting Stella equation as follows:

15. Deforestation = 0 Unit: Gt/year

Converters for CO2 Concentration and Temperature

Additional Converters Glossary Definitions and Directions Names and Equations

16. CO2 Concentration: Hello, I’m ______and I 16.CO2 Concentration represent a Converter to convert Carbon in Gt. to

CO2 Concentration and to parts per million (ppm). You =

have also seen CO2 concentration expressed in parts per 1.Atmosphere/ million (ppm) or parts per million by volume (ppmv). Each 1 ppmv (part per million by volume) of the atmosphere 6C.CO2 Concentration

weighs approximately 2.1357 Gt. of CO2 Converter

My concentrations are greatly rising mostly because 16C.CO2 of the fossil fuels that people are burning for energy. Fossil fuels like coal and oil contain carbon Concentration that plants pulled out of the atmosphere through Converter photosynthesis over the span of many millions of years; we are returning that carbon to the = atmosphere in just a few hundred years. 2.13 In fact, the last time I was as high as I am now was more than 3 million years ago, when temperature Units: ppmv was 2°–3°C (3.6°–5.4°F) higher than during the pre- industrial era, and sea level was 15–25 meters (50– 80 feet) higher than today.

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The element 16.CO2 Concentration is itself a Converter and here there are two Converters

connected together. The first is 16.CO2 Concentration coming out from and connected to the

Stock, 1.Atmosphere. The second is the 16C. CO2 Concentration Converter. There is a Connecter

between 16.CO2 Concentration and 16C.CO2

Concentration Converter. 16.CO2 Concentration is in turn connected to the 17.Temperature

17. Temperature: Hello, I’m ______and I represent a 17.Temperature

Converter of CO2 Concentration to Temperature in Celsius. Global temperature is calculated by tracking = 14 +(16.CO2 thousands of readings from around the world, year after Concentration-338) year, and distilling them down to a single number, which *(17C.Temperature is now about 59 degrees Fahrenheit or 14 degrees C . It converter) takes a lot to change me because of feedback seemingly small changes can have big impacts. Given the size and tremendous heat capacity of the global oceans, it takes a massive amount of accumulated UNITS: degC heat energy to raise Earth’s average yearly surface

temperature even a small amount. Behind the seemingly small increase in global average surface temperature 17C.Temperature over the past century is a significant increase in Converter accumulated heat. That extra heat is driving regional and = 0.01 seasonal temperature extremes, reducing snow cover and sea ice, intensifying heavy rainfall, and changing habitat Units: ranges for plants and animals—expanding some and degC/ppmv shrinking others. Since the start of the twenty-first century, the annual global temperature record has been broken five times. From 1900 to 1980 a new

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temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; however, since 1981 it has increased to every 3 years.

17.Temperature is linked to CO2 concentration in our model as represented by the 16.CO2 Concentration Converter and also to the 17C.Temperature

Converter. There are Connecters between 16.CO2 Concentration and 17.Temperature and between 17.Temperature and 17C.Temperature Converter

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Unit 3 Lesson 3-4: Putting Drawdown Solutions into Your Models

Introduction Overview

Today, using resources from the Drawdown Project https://www.drawdown.org/solutions and also from the Pachamama Alliance https://connect.pachamama.org/ we begin to focus on Solutions to the issues of climate disruption. We’ll spend time looking together at the Drawdown website. We will continue to build our “empathetic scientific inquiry” skills and our Stella skills in this lesson. We will link a summary Solutions by sector model with our Carbon Cycle Model we explored in Modules 3-2&3. We’ll divide into teams to explore each

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of 7 sectors. We’ll share our findings within the team. We’ll observe the impact of Drawdown on our climate model.

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Objectives and Learning Goals

 Gain a basic understanding of the Solutions experts have identified that can work to address climate disruption and global warming  Increase common connections to the earth and all life within it  Gain experience communicating about the Drawdown Solutions  Provide more practice with Stella software through adding the Drawdown solutions by sector to the carbon cycle model

Time and Materials

For this module you will use:

 Stella Architect software with the Module 3-4 pre-load model open the Stella model file entitled “PreloadLesson3-4Drawdown” Your Instructor will tell you whether this is pre-loaded on your compute or is on your flash drive or needs to be opened with the following link: https://www.dropbox.com/s/9m4tpzhabb6d6cb/May28Stella3- 4PreloadCarbon%20Cycles%26Drawdown%20%281%29.stmx?dl=0  Information and Lab Work Sheets for this Lesson located at the end of this lesson (3-4-A, 3-4-B, 3-4-C, 3-4-D, 3-4-E,3-4-F)  Internet access for websites: o Drawdown https://www.drawdown.org/ o Pachamama Alliance Websites https://www.pachamama.org/ o 12 minute overview Drawdown video to watch as time permits https://drive.google.com/file/d/10U_254fOv02wy- q8wcteko7cjE0A65SE/view o Stella Tutorials for reference at https://www.iseesystems.com/resources/tutorials/ o Overhead projector connected to computer with Stella

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It is expected that this module can be completed in 60 minutes—Extra time may be helpful

Questions for Reflection

1. A major lesson stressed by the Drawdown project is that there is no one magic solution and that we need to work on all types of solutions if we are to succeed? Why do you think that these experts stress this point? 2. Which of the drawdown sectors or individual solutions interests you the most? How can you support Drawdown implementation: In your family? In your school? In your city? In your country? Globally?

Scaffolding and Integration

Unit 1, gave us a grounding in Systems Thinking and Unit 2 gave us a role play inquiry into what needs to happen globally to address climate problems in diverse countries. In Unit 3, Module 3-1, we focused on introducing you to Stella software with a very simple emissions and removals model. In Modules 3-2&3, you took a deeper dive into the carbon cycle model through role play with a more detailed model. In this lesson (3-4), we continue to practice our Stella skills and bring Solutions into our model. To help we use the work of the Drawdown Project https://www.drawdown.org and the Pachamama Alliance https://www.pachamama.org/.

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Drawdown is the result of the work of over 200 thinkers in the area of climate disruption solutions. These experts take a big picture Systems Modeling approach to climate change challenges. They have estimated the potential in

Gigatons (Gt) CO2 reduction for each of 80 solutions to help with climate change. Lesson 3-4-A Information Sheet lists these 80 solutions organized into 7 Sectors of Solutions.

In this lesson 3-4, you will familiarize yourself with these solutions by Sector, draw a Stella summary systems model of the solutions by sector using the preload model. Then you will run the model together, with your classmates to observe the potential for drawdown over 50, 100 year and 200 year periods. Finally you will prepare a short “elevator” speech about your assigned sector and, with help from classmates, prepare a video of that speech.

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Lesson 3-4-A: Information Sheet on Solutions by Sector

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Where Does This Module Fit With Future Lessons?

Following this introduction to Drawdown Solutions next week, in Unit 4, you will dive deeper into a few particular solutions that are of interest to you personally. You will decide on a particular solution or set of “Drawdown Solutions” that will form the basis of your Stella Systems Modeling project presentation. In Units 4 and 5 you will do more research on your Drawdown Solution or group of solutions, explore the solutions both globally and locally with links to potential Green Jobs. You will consider the environmental justice and multi-problem solving aspects of the Solution. You will prepare a final capstone modeling presentation for sharing with your community.

Key Activities

Steps of Module 3-4

 To begin open your preloaded Stella file lesson 3-4 either from flash drive or link: https://www.dropbox.com/s/9m4tpzhabb6d6cb/May28Stella3- 4PreloadCarbon%20Cycles%26Drawdown%20%281%29.stmx?dl=0  As before do a “Save As” and give your practice file a new name with Date, Your Name, Practice 3-4 Drawdown Intro.” The Preload Stella model file contains our Carbon cycle model with Drawdown Solutions by Sector in it.  For this lesson you will use the Information and Lab Sheets 3-4-A, 3-4-B, 3-4 C 3-4-D, 3-4-E, 3-4-F). Information Sheet 3-4-E provides summary information

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on each of the Drawdown Sectors and gives links to the web-site pages for each of the solutions.  To provide practice in Stella, delete the Drawdown Sector from your practice Stella 3-4 model and save it. With a new name. Use this file in the lesson.  Following along with the overhead—draw a Stock (Drawdown) and the 7 Sectors. Lab Sheet 3-4-C gives the information needed to re-create this model. Copy the Drawdown Sector representation of the 7 sector summaries in Stella on your practice file for Module 3-4. Draw a Drawdown Stock with 7 flows (one for each sector) going out of it. Put the Drawdown “stock” at “0”. Use the converters and connectors to tell Stella the amount of gigatons carbon estimated to be drawdown (Gt) that would be reduced over a 30 year period (2020 to 2050) should the Solution be fully implemented (Use Module 3-4-C and E Lab Sheet for steps to do this). Be sure to save your work. Draw a sector block around your model.  The Preloaded general carbon cycle model for 3-4, has the drawdown numbers by sector per year in Carbon reduction already added to the overall carbon model. Run this model over 50, 100, and 200 years to observe what happens over time.  Divide into teams of 7 participants each. Your teacher will help you count off so that everyone has one of the 7 Sectors to research and represent. Lab Sheet 3-4-E has descriptions of each Sector and links to each of the Solutions listed. Electricity Generation, Food, Women and Girls, Buildings and Cities, Land Use, Transport, Materials). Review the Information Sheets. In your team, each of you will make a short video on one of the sectors and post to your portfolio.

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Check Out

Thinking About Building Your Project Portfolio

Feedback

Please complete the questions at https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/Unit3_4/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

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Lesson 3-4-B: Drawdown Frequently Asked Questions Sheet Prepared by Pachamama Alliance

What is Drawdown?---Drawdown is the point in time when the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere peak and begin to decline on a year to year basis.

Goal of the Drawdown Project - To identify, measure and model the 100 most impactful, substantive solutions to global warming that either reduce emissions or remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and to determine whether it is possible to achieve Drawdown within the next 30 years, by 2050.

Drawdown Team - Drawdown is a coalition of over 200 contributors from over 22 countries including 62 researchers, 130 advisors and 49 outside experts.

How to achieve Drawdown - To achieve drawdown we need to draw greenhouse gases down from the atmosphere back to the earth. This already happens every year via photosynthesis but we have to rebalance the quantity of emissions with the earth’s capacity to bring those gases back home.

The Mandate - To map, measure and model substantive, technological, ecological, and behavioral solutions and analyze their potential to reduce and draw down greenhouse gases over a 30 year period.

Greenhouse Gases - Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, fluorinated gases and several others all with different global warming impacts. To enable consistency, scientists calculate the warming potential of different greenhouse gases and convert it to a carbon equivalent to use as a common ‘carbon’ currency. In Drawdown, references to carbon dioxide include the impact of other, equivalent greenhouse gases, such as methane or fluorinated gases, based on their global warming potential.

The Science behind Drawdown

Assessment - The project focused on existing solutions with sufficient data available for global modeling. The solutions were then evaluated based on their

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current performance, scalability, economic viability, potential to reduce greenhouse gases over 30 years and the balance of other positive/negative impacts.

Three-stage Process - Every solution was researched in a 3 step process:

(i) analyzing technical reports with financial and climate data;

(ii) reviewing to ensure data integrity;

(iii) modeling to assess integration of solutions and eliminate double counting.

Modelling - Each solution is measured and modeled to determine its global carbon impact over the period of 2020-2050. The results include the (i) ranking (ii) carbon avoided, reduced, or sequestered (iii) the cost to implement and (iv) net cost/savings over a 30 year period. The impacts are quoted in gigatons of carbon dioxide referenced against a ‘business as usual’ baseline.

Scenarios - Three different scenarios were modeled using different underlying assumptions (e.g. future growth rates, cost reductions, improvements in tech etc.) The most conservative scenario (the “plausible’ scenario in the book) reaches drawdown by 2060, the middle “drawdown” scenario by 2050 and the more aggressive, or “optimum” scenario, reaches drawdown potentially as early as 2045.

The Findings

Ranking - The solutions are ranked based on total amount of carbon they can potentially avoid or remove from the atmosphere on a global basis over a 30 year period.

Sectors - The top 80 solutions are grouped into seven sectors:

1. Energy 2. Food 3. Women & Girls 4. Building & Cities 5. Land Use 6. Transport

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7. Materials

Top 10 Ranked Solutions

#1 Refrigerant Management #2 Wind Turbines (onshore) #3 Reduced Food Waste #4 Plant Rich Diet #5 Tropical Forests #6 Educating Girls #7 Family Planning #8 Solar Farms #9 Silvopasture #10 Rooftop Solar

Co-Benefits - Nearly all the solutions are ‘no regrets’ solutions, meaning, they have so many advantages they are commendable irrespective of their impact on greenhouse gases. These co-benefits include saving money, creating jobs, enhancing security, advancing human health, eliminating hunger, preventing pollution and restoring the environment.

The Plan - Of the 80 ranked solutions some have more impact than others, but there is no silver bullet and no ‘small’ solutions. Reversing global warming is not possible unless we do them all. Under the Drawdown Scenario, over a 30 years period, the 80 solutions would draw down 1,372 GT.

Net cost to reverse Global Warming - The total “first cost” to implement all 80 modelled solutions is $129 trillion over 30 years under the plausible scenario. That’s $27 trillion over what “business as usual” would cost, for example the cost of using solar instead of coal. The net operating cost for all solutions over 30 years is actually a savings of $78 trillion. So at the point of drawdown in 2050 the total net savings will be $51 trillion!

Coming Attractions - In addition to the top 80 solutions, the book includes 20 “coming attractions”. These are 20 emerging solutions that, while they are scientifically valid, as yet there is insufficient economic and/or scientific data to

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accurately model the net impact on carbon and cost. These innovations include marine permaculture, smart grids, the hyperloop, autonomous vehicles and living buildings.

For more information see www.drawdown.org and www.pachamama.org

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Lesson 3-4-C: Lab Steps for Drawing Drawdown by Sector and Adding Drawdown to Our Carbon Cycle Model

It’s important to observe that the Drawdown Solutions expressed in Gt CO2 and that they are also calculated as the amounts saved over a 30 year period. In placing this information in our models and defining the drawdown “elements” for use in the overall carbon cycle model we will do 2 divisions:

1. Convert from CO2 to Carbon Equivalent by dividing by 3.664 (for reference see information Sheet 3-1-A). 2. To take into account the 30 year period (2020 to 2050), we will assume equal drawdowns per year and tabulate a rate per year by dividing by 30.

For example: Electricity Generation is estimated to reduce 246.14 Gt CO2 over a 30 year period. We wish to express this as Gt Carbon Equivalent per year instead of total Gt CO2 over 30 years so we have to divide as follows (246.14/30/3.664). This will give us a rate of 2.24 Carbon reduction per year. The table below gives this conversion for each of the sectors. You will see that the pre-loaded Stella model uses these conversions in the Converters for each Sector.

After you draw a model with the 7 Sectors as Flows, add a converter with the information below for each sector as shown in the Preload Model.

Drawdown = 2.24+1.36+.50+.96+.42+1.02+2.93 per year

Sector Name Estimated Gt Per Conversion Gt Formula Unit

Reduced CO2 year CO2 to Carbon Carbon Equivalent Equivalent Per Year Electricity Generation 246.14 /30 /3.664 2.24 (246.14/30/3.664) Gt/yr Land Use 149.6 /30 /3.664 1.36 (149.6/30/3.664) Gt/yr Buildings and Cities 54.5 /30 /3.664 0.50 (54.5/30/3.664) Gt/yr Woman and Girls and Population 105.02 /30 /3.664 0.96 (105.02/30/3.664) Gt/yr Transport 45.78 /30 /3.664 0.42 (45.78/30/3.664) Gt/yr Materials 111.78 /30 /3.664 1.02 (111.78/30/3.664) Gt/yr Food 321.9 /30 /3.664 2.93 (321.9/30/3.664) Gt/yr

Total 1034.72 /30 /3.664 9.42 Gt/yr (1034.72/30/3.664)

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Lesson 3-4-D: Worksheet for Sector Elevator Speech Videos

In this activity use the Information Sheets for 3-4, especially 3-4-E to research your assigned Sector. Prepare a short 3 minute elevator speech that covers the questions below. Practice your speech with a partner. When you are ready have your teammate video you giving the speech. Post the video to your portfolio.

Enter Your Sector:

Your speech should cover as many of these elements as possible in the time:

What does the Sector cover—description

Why the Sector is important to providing solutions to climate issues

What are some examples of solutions modeled under this sector

What are the major benefits of adopting the solutions?

What technologies and jobs are related to the sector?

How would your family, local community, state, nation, global community be impacted by adopting the solutions discussed in this Sector?

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Lesson 3-4-E---Summary listing of Solutions by Sector with Links

The Descriptions for Each Sector are intended to give you a quick reference summary of the sector. They are taken directly from the Drawdown web-site where there is more information. Click on the links in the names of the individual Solutions to get more information about Solutions of interest to you.

Electricity Generation Sector: Information https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/electricity-generation

Introduction

The power sector currently accounts for around 40 percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, making it the highest-emitting sector, 246.14 Gigatons followed by industry and transportation. Of total Reduced CO2 worldwide electricity generation, fossil fuels 2020 –2050 represent 67 percent, nuclear 11 percent, and renewable energy sources just over 24 percent and Electricity growing, with the bulk (18 percent) being from large Generation Converter = hydropower systems. In the last few years, the 246.14/30/3.66 = 2.24 competitiveness of renewable sources for electricity Carbon per year generation has continued to increase due to the price evolution and the efficiency improvements of these technologies. The Drawdown Electricity Generation Sector includes solutions both centralized and decentralized—such as onshore wind power and rooftop solar panels, respectively— and enabling technologies such as electricity

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storage systems that foster large-scale integration of renewable energy sources.

Electricity Generation Sector Solutions

Included in Project Drawdown’s rankings of the 100 most substantive solutions to global warming are 20* of the most impactful solutions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, or for supporting the adoption and implementation of other solutions, in the Electricity Generation (formerly “Energy”) sector.

The solutions included in this sector have significant positive climate and financial impacts in the short, medium, and long term, since they can replace conventional electricity generation technologies such as coal, natural gas, and oil power plants.

*In the Drawdown book, solar water and methane digesters - small are included in this sector, while landfill methane is under the Buildings and Cities Sector for communication reasons. However, landfill methane was accounted under the modeling framework of the Energy Sector due to the common addressable market. The other two solutions were modeled under the Buildings and Cities Sector.

ELECTRICITY GENERATION SOLUTIONS

 CONCENTRATED SOLAR – an electricity generation technology that uses heat provided by direct normal solar irradiance concentrated on a small area, with and without storage.  GEOTHERMAL – geothermal systems for electricity generation, combining both mature technologies and future expectations for enhanced geothermal.  IN-STREAM HYDRO – small-scale hydropower technologies under 10 megawatts, including in-stream hydrokinetic systems.  METHANE DIGESTERS (LARGE) – large methane digesters associated with agriculture, manure, and wastewater facilities that produce biogas to be used for electricity generation in dedicated biogas or combined heat and power plants.  METHANE DIGESTERS (SMALL) – small methane digesters used at the household level to replace fuelwood, charcoal, or even fossil fuel-based cook stoves.  MICRO WIND – wind turbines that are rated less than or equal to 100 kilowatts of power capacity.

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 ROOFTOP SOLAR – distributed solar photovoltaic systems that include both residential and community-scale systems generally below 1 megawatt.  SOLAR FARMS – utility-scale solar photovoltaic systems.  SOLAR WATER – solar hot water systems supplementing existing electric and gas heaters in houses.  WAVE AND TIDAL – wave energy converters and tidal systems for electricity generation.  WIND TURBINES (OFFSHORE) – offshore utility-scale wind power technologies.  WIND TURBINES (ONSHORE) – onshore utility-scale wind power technologies.

TRANSITIONAL TECHNOLOGIES

 BIOMASS – the use of perennial biomass feedstock for dedicated electricity generation and combined heat and power generation.  COGENERATION – auto producer combined heat and power systems running on natural gas. Considered here as a transition technology, replacing conventional heat and power technologies and allowing for a greater efficiency and fuel optionality.  NUCLEAR – the adoption of nuclear fission in the form of Uranium 235 as used in pressurized water reactors, a type of light-water reactor using low-enriched uranium fuel (the most prevalent form of nuclear energy in 2016).  WASTE-TO-ENERGY – the process of combusting waste (typically from the municipal solid waste stream) and converting it to electricity and usable heat.

ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES

 ENERGY STORAGE (DISTRIBUTED) – decentralized systems generally based on battery storage.  ENERGY STORAGE (UTILITIES) – includes utility-scale storage units such as gravitational potential energy (pumped hydroelectric), chemical energy (batteries), mechanical energy (flywheels or compressed air energy storage, or hydrogen storage.  GRID FLEXIBILITY – represents a portfolio of practices and technologies (system operation, markets, load, flexible generation, networks, and storage) that increase grid efficiency, resilience, and ability to integrate variable renewable energy.  MICROGRIDS – a localized grouping of electricity sources and loads that normally operates connected to and synchronous with the traditional centralized power grid, but can disconnect and function autonomously as physical and/or economic conditions dictate.

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Land Use Sector: Information

https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/land-use

Introduction

The Land Use Sector includes the protection and restoration of high-carbon ecosystems such as forests and wetlands, as well as the production of perennial timber and biomass crops. Deforestation and degradation of forest ecosystems are 149.6 gigatons responsible for about 1/8 of anthropogenic reduced CO2 greenhouse gas emissions today (IPCC, 2014). Land use solutions reduce emissions from deforestation 2020 –2050 and degradation of ecosystems. Some protected Land Use Converter = ecosystems (e.g. coastal wetlands) continue to sequester carbon, while forest restoration and 149.6/30/3.66 = timber and biomass crops sequester significant 1.36 Gt. Carbon EQ per year amounts of carbon. Forests, peatlands, and coastal wetlands provide critical ecosystem services as well, while timber and biomass crops produce important feedstocks for construction, paper, energy, and other uses.

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Land Use Sector Solutions

Ecosystem protection solutions:

COASTAL WETLANDS – the legal protection of carbon-rich mangroves, seagrasses, and saltmarshes, leading to reduced degradation rates and the safeguarding of carbon sinks.

FOREST PROTECTION – the legal protection of forest land, leading to reduced deforestation rates and the safeguarding of carbon sinks. INDIGENOUS PEOPLE’S LAND MANAGEMENT – the legal recognition of forest tenure to indigenous peoples’ communities with claims to the land, leading to reduced degradation rates and the safeguarding of carbon sinks. PEATLANDS – the protection of carbon-rich peatlands, leading to reduced degradation rates and the safeguarding of carbon sinks.

ECOSYSTEM RESTORATION SOLUTIONS:

TEMPERATE FORESTS – the restoration and protection of temperate-climate forests, resulting in ongoing biosequestration. TROPICAL FORESTS – the restoration and protection of tropical-climate forests, resulting in ongoing biosequestration.

TIMBER AND BIOMASS CROP SOLUTIONS:

AFFORESTATION – the planting of trees for timber or other biomass uses on degraded land, with biosequestration impacts in soil and biomass, and long-lived products across periods of cultivation. BAMBOO – the planting of bamboo for timber and other biomass uses on degraded land, with biosequestration impacts in soil, biomass, and long-lived products across periods of cultivation. PERENNIAL BIOMASS – the production of perennial grasses and coppiced woody plants for bioenergy feedstock, resulting in net carbon in soils through biosequestration.

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Buildings and Cities Sector: Information

https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/buildings-and-cities

Introduction 54.5 gigatons reduced CO2 Dense urban human settlement – the cities of the world and the buildings and infrastructure 2020 –2050 that comprise them – account for a significant percentage of human energy use, mostly for Buildings and Cities Converter = heating and cooling; ergo, they are a 54.5/30/3.66 = 0.50 reduced Gt. Carbon EQ per year significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. The rapid urbanization of humanity ushered in inefficient design of buildings and infrastructure, and Project Drawdown identified, measured, mapped and modeled several solutions that address the operating inefficiencies of dwelling in and using buildings, and of living in cities.

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Buildings and Cities Solutions

BUILDINGS

For Buildings, 10 solutions were identified (8 of which were modeled) as listed here: BUILDING AUTOMATION – through controls and sensors, automation systems turn appliances and other energy uses on and off according to need and use, increasing utilization and reducing space heating and cooling waste. GREEN ROOFS (cool roofs and green roofs) – cool roofs reflect solar radiation and reduce air temperature, which leads to reduction in cooling loads. Green roofs have a similar effect as well as reducing heating loads in regions of high heat demand. Collectively, green roofs mitigate carbon emissions by reducing fossil fuel use in heating and cooling. HEAT PUMPS – high efficiency heat pump systems are radically more efficient than conventional HVAC systems. The use of heat pumps reduces building heating and cooling loads. INSULATION – insulating building envelopes reduces space heating and cooling loads, which in turn mitigates carbon emissions. LED LIGHTING (COMMERCIAL) – replacing conventional lighting solutions (bulbs, ballasts and systems) with more efficient commercial light-emitting diodes. LED LIGHTING (HOUSEHOLD) – replacing conventional lighting solutions (bulbs) with more efficient household light-emitting diodes. NET ZERO BUILDINGS – not counted/calculated - composite RETROFITTING – not counted/calculated – composite SMART GLASS – specially designed glass that can be implemented in buildings to control the infiltration and emissions of solar radiation, leading to reductions in space heating and cooling loads which, in turn, mitigate carbon emissions.

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SMART THERMOSTATS – internet-connected devices in households that reduce the heating and cooling demand of homes by using sensors and intelligent settings to maintain building comfort. Additionally, Project Drawdown modeled another key solution that depends on and interacts with buildings, but is categorized in the Energy Sector. SOLAR HOT WATER – the use of solar radiation to pre-heat or heat water for residential and commercial use within buildings, which reduces the need for conventional fossil fuel-based water heating.

CITIES

Five additional solutions were studied and modeled for Cities, as listed here: BIKE INFRASTRUCTURE – modifying or augmenting urban right of ways to have specific infrastructure reserved for bicycle commuting and segregated physically or by marking from car and pedestrian right of ways. DISTRICT HEATING – centralized heating systems and distribution of generated heat to the buildings of a defined community, through a network of buried piped, to satisfy the demand for space and water heating. LANDFILL METHANE – capturing methane generated from anaerobic digestion of municipal solid waste in landfills and incinerating the captured biogas to generate electricity, reducing the need for fossil fuel-powered electricity production and associated emissions. WALKABLE CITIES – designing and retrofitting urban environments to encourage walking for commute or transportation, thereby reducing transportation via internal combustion engine powered vehicles and their associated emissions. WATER DISTRIBUTION – reducing water leakage or oversupply of regional water, which reduces pumping and pressurization electricity, which, in turn, reduces greenhouse gas emissions.

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Woman and Girls and Population: Information

https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/women-and-girls

Introduction

Advancing key areas of gender equity can reduce 105.02 GIGATONS emissions—that is what defines the Women and Girls Sector. Access to education and voluntary REDUCED CO2 family planning are basic human rights and should be secured simply because they are, yet 2020 –2050 significant gaps remain around the world today. Woman and Girls Converter = They are included as solutions in Project 105.02/30/3.66 = 0.96 reduced Drawdown because advancing those rights has an Gt. Carbon EQ per year effect on fertility rates and population growth. Population size is a key driver of demand for food, transportation, electricity, buildings, goods, etc., all with attendant emissions. Women smallholder farmers face disparity in rights, resources, and training compared with their male counterparts. Addressing inequity in agriculture is a solution in Project Drawdown due to its effect on improving farm yields and thus reducing deforestation for additional agricultural land. As a group, Educating Girls, Family Planning, and Women Smallholders form the Women and Girls Sector—an area often overlooked but key to reaching drawdown.

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POPULATION CHANGE SOLUTIONS

EDUCATING GIRLS – providing equal quality of and access to education to girls/young women currently being denied access, leading to improved livelihoods, delayed onset of marriage, delayed childbearing, and fewer children than peers with less education. FAMILY PLANNING – scaling-up voluntary family planning efforts, including access to contraception and reproductive health resources, especially in countries where the unmet need for contraception is high or current demand is low, leading to the decline in total fertility rates.

FOOD SYSTEM / ECOSYSTEM PROTECTION SOLUTIONS

WOMEN SMALLHOLDERS – providing resources, financing, and training to women smallholder farmers around the world, leading to improved agricultural yields and therefore reduced deforestation rates.

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Transport: Information

https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/transport

Introduction

Transport produces 7 gigatons of carbon dioxide- equivalent greenhouse gas emissions annually, or 23 percent of energy-related emissions, which is around 14 percent of all emissions. In individual 45.78 GIGATONS countries, transport can account for much higher shares, even 35 percent of all emissions. Growth REDUCED CO2 rates in emissions for some subsectors like air 2020 –2050 transport and international shipping are very high, so the Transport Sector requires special focus to Transport Converter = keep emissions from ballooning out of control, as 45.78/30/3.66 = 0.42 reduced some projections indicate. Transport, however, is Gt. Carbon EQ per year a service derived from economic growth. We find that wealthier people travel more, locally and internationally, and demand more goods and services. So, as a country develops economically, movement of people and goods increases. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions reduction, transport is constrained in some subsectors where few economically viable alternative fuels exist. Some transport, therefore, can only currently be made more efficient at using existing fossil fuels; others, however, do have alternative fuels, such as electricity for cars instead of gasoline. Other modes of transport can be avoided completely using information and

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communication technologies. Project Drawdown has examined 11 of these transport solutions.

Solutions

Included in the Project Drawdown list are 11 of the most impactful solutions for reducing emissions in the transport sector. The list excludes some solutions that are impactful, but future work of Project Drawdown will include as many other solutions as possible. AIRPLANES – increased use of technologies to reduce aircraft fuel burn CARS – increased use of hybrid cars ELECTRIC BIKES – increased use of electric bikes instead of cars for urban travel ELECTRIC VEHICLES – increased use of battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles HIGH-SPEED RAIL – track construction for increased use of high-speed rail for intercity travel MASS TRANSIT – increased usage of mass transit or public transport to get around cities RIDESHARING – increased ride-sharing when commuting in North America SHIPS – the use of technologies to make maritime shipping less fuel-intensive TELEPRESENCE – replacing flying for business meetings with telepresence technologies TRAINS – increased electrification of freight railways TRUCKS – increased use of fuel reduction technologies and approaches for trucking

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Materials: Information https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/materials

Introduction 111.78 GIGATONS

The linear and wasteful ways in which humans’ REDUCED CO2 partner with the materials that make up the economy result in significant greenhouse gas 2020 –2050 emissions throughout the life cycle of the Materials Converter = products that meet our daily needs. A linear life 117.78/30/3.66 = 1.02 reduced cycle where material is extracted, processed, Gt. Carbon EQ per year transported, manufactured, utilized, and discarded leaves a terrific atmospheric and financial footprint from the energy wasted, the embodied energy in the materials themselves, and the burden of handling the waste streams resultant from wanton consumption. Project Drawdown has measured, mapped, and modeled a set of solutions that, collectively, show a pathway forward to a more circular economy where material already extracted, produced, and used is recovered and efficiently reprocessed into reincarnate forms or, in some cases, more thoughtfully disposed of or transformed so as not to release potent gases with significant global warming potential into the atmosphere. In some cases, simply more judicious use of materials results in significant energy savings, which mitigate emissions. In others, substituting energy-intensive

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feedstocks with biologic or recovered feedstocks mitigates greenhouse gas emissions. With all Material Sector solutions, the concept of life cycle is critical to the Project Drawdown assessment; the models have discrete and specific boundaries drawn to be able to assess the relative impact of these solutions separate from Energy, Land Use, Food, or Transport solutions. Many of the solutions correspond to the energy-intensive consumption patterns of urban human settlement, and measuring the impact of the solutions requires first a modeling and mapping of the future of municipal solid waste and urban populations. A more circular economy will play a key role in achieving drawdown. Indeed, the single most significant mitigation solution published in Drawdown is found in this sector.

Solutions

Included in the Project Drawdown list are 7 impactful solutions related to human use and treatment of materials which have a significant mitigation effect on carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions. These solutions are listed as follows: ALTERNATIVE CEMENT – the use of an increased percentage of fly ash instead of Portland cement in concrete. Recovering and using fly ash has a smaller carbon emissions load than an equivalent amount of Portland cement. BIOPLASTIC – replacing petroleum-based plastics with biomass feedstock-based plastic materials. Petroleum-based plastics have a higher emissions load compared to biomass-based plastics. HOUSEHOLD RECYCLING – the increased recovery of recyclable materials, not including paper and not including organic materials, from the residential sector of the economy. Recycling here refers to metals, glass, plastics, and other materials

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including e-waste and bulky items. The carbon mitigation impact results from comparing the emissions resulting from the manufacturing of materials from virgin feedstocks to those of manufacturing equivalent materials from recovered materials. INDUSTRIAL RECYCLING – the increased recovery of recyclable materials, not including paper and not including organic materials, from the commercial and industrial sector of the economy. Recycling here refers to metals, glass, plastics, and other materials including e-waste and bulky items. The carbon mitigation impact results from comparing the emissions resulting from the manufacturing of materials from virgin feedstocks to those of manufacturing equivalent materials from recovered materials. RECYCLED PAPER – the increased recovery and reprocessing of used paper into paper products that replace virgin paper feedstocks. The mitigation impacts measured result from the comparison of the transport and processing of recovered scrap paper to that of virgin feedstock (trees). The carbon biosequestration impact of trees not cut down is not measured in the results of this solution. REFRIGERANT MANAGEMENT – controlling leakages of refrigerants from existing appliances through better management practices and recovery, recycling, and destruction of refrigerants at the end of life. Refrigerant gases have significant global warming potential, and limiting emissions by control or destruction mitigates negative climate change impacts. WATER SAVING (HOME) – the use of low-flow fixtures and pressure regulators in the household. Saving water, in particular hot water, in the household reduces emissions related to heating water. Additionally, Project Drawdown modeled other solutions which directly interact with other Materials solutions. They are listed here with their corresponding sector: COMPOSTING – Food Sector LANDFILL METHANE – Buildings and Cities Sector PLANT-RICH DIET – Food Sector REDUCED FOOD WASTE – Food Sector WASTE-TO-ENERGY – Electricity Generation Sector

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Food: Information

https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/food

Introduction

The Food Sector includes agricultural production (crops and livestock) as well as food preparation, consumption, and waste. This essential human activity is 321.9 GIGATONS responsible for a major share of greenhouse gas emissions today: crop REDUCED CO2 and livestock production is the source of about 1/8 of anthropogenic 2020 –2050 emissions. Land clearing (which is Food Converter = mostly for agriculture) is the source of 321.9/30/3.66 = 2.93 reduced another 1/8 of emissions (IPCC, 2014). Gt. Carbon EQ per year Many of Project Drawdown’s supply- side agricultural solutions reduce emissions from farming and ranching, while also sequestering significant amounts of carbon. Demand-side solutions like a plant-based diet and reduced food waste reduce the need for land clearing.

SUPPLY-SIDE SOLUTIONS:

 BIOCHAR – a biosequestration process for converting biomass to long-lived charcoal (and energy) which can be used as a soil amendment.  CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE – an annual crop production system that provides biosequestration via crop rotation, cover cropping, and reduced tillage.

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 FARMLAND IRRIGATION – a set of energy-efficient irrigation practices that increase crop yields while reducing emissions.  FARMLAND RESTORATION – a set of processes for restoring degraded, abandoned land to productivity and biosequestration.  IMPROVED RICE CULTIVATION – a set of practices to reduce methane emissions from paddy rice production using alternate wet and dry periods and other strategies.  MANAGED GRAZING – a set of practices that sequester carbon in grassland soils by adjusting stocking rates, timing, and intensity of grazing.  MULTISTRATA AGROFORESTRY – a perennial cropping system featuring multiple layers of trees and other perennial crops, with high biosequestration impacts.  NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT – a reduction in the overuse of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, resulting in reduced emissions of nitrous oxide.  REGENERATIVE AGRICULTURE – an annual crop production system that includes at least four of the following practices: green manure, compost application, organic production, cover crops, crop rotation, and/or reduced tillage.  SILVOPASTURE – the addition of trees to pastures for increased productivity and biosequestration.  SYSTEM OF RICE INTENSIFICATION – an improved smallholder rice production technique that uses wider spacing non-flooded periods, compost application, and other strategies for emissions reduction and improved yields.  TREE INTERCROPPING – an annual crop production system that integrates trees for increased yields, ecosystem services, and biosequestration.  TROPICAL STAPLE TREES – the production of trees that produce staple crops (starch, protein, oils), to replace some annual cropping with trees providing biosequestration.

DEMAND-SIDE SOLUTIONS:

 CLEAN COOKSTOVES – the use of efficient cook stoves that reduce deforestation and improve health in regions where firewood is the main cooking fuel.  COMPOSTING – the conversion of biodegradable waste to a useful soil amendment, while avoiding emissions from landfills.

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 PLANT-RICH DIET – reduced emissions associated with reduced livestock production by emphasizing plant-based foods in wealthy countries, while increasing food security and healthy diets. Avoids emissions from land clearing for agriculture by reducing demand.  REDUCED FOOD WASTE – reducing emissions from agriculture by using its products more efficiently, including redistribution of food before it is wasted. Avoids emissions from land clearing for agriculture by reducing demand.

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Lesson 3-4-F: Solutions by Sector with Short Descriptions

Pachamama Alliance Drawdown Initiative Solution Descriptions by Sector

LAND USE

Afforestation Creating forests where there were none before—creates a carbon sink, drawing in and holding on to carbon and distributing it into the soil.

BAMBOO Bamboo rapidly sequesters carbon in biomass and soil and can thrive on degraded lands. It has more than 1,000 uses, from buildings to food to paper.

COASTAL The world’s salt marshes, mangroves, and sea grasses provide vital habitat, flood WETLANDS protection, and water filtration, and sequester huge amounts of carbon in plants and soil.

FOREST With mature canopy trees and complex understories, primary forests contain 300 billion PROTECTION tons of carbon and are the greatest repositories of biodiversity on the planet.

INDIGENOUS Growing the acreage under secure indigenous land tenure can increase above- and PEOPLES’ LAND belowground carbon stocks and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation. MANAGEMENT

PEATLANDS Although peatlands cover just 3 percent of the earth’s land area, they are second only to oceans in the amount of carbon they store.

PERENNIAL Using perennial bioenergy crops (e.g., switchgrass, silver grass, willow, eucalyptus) rather BIOMASS than annuals (e.g., corn) reduces emissions and raises carbon sequestration in soil.

TEMPERATE Ninety-nine percent of temperate forests have been altered in some way—timbered, FORESTS converted to agriculture, disrupted by development. Restoring them sequesters carbon and revives ecosystems.

TROPICAL FORESTS Tropical forests have suffered extensive clearing, fragmentation, degradation, and depletion of biodiversity. Restoring them may sequester as much as six gigatons of carbon dioxide per year.

WOMEN & GIRLS

EDUCATING GIRLS Education lays a foundation for vibrant lives for girls and women, their families, and their communities. It also avoids emissions by curbing population growth.

FAMILY PLANNING Securing women’s right to voluntary, high-quality family planning dramatically improves the health and well-being of women and their children. It also avoids emissions.

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WOMEN If women smallholders receive equal farming resources and land rights, their yields will rise by 20 to 30 percent, avoiding emissions from deforestation SMALLHOLDERS

BUILDINGS AND CITIES

Infrastructure is essential for supporting safe, pleasant, and abundant bicycle use— BIKE which can relieve city congestion, improve public health, and reduce emissions from cars. INFRASTRUCT URE

Building automation systems serve as the “brain” of large commercial buildings. BUILDING Controlling temperature, lighting, and more, they can improve energy efficiency and occupants’ comfort. AUTOMATION

With district systems, a central plant channels hot and/or cool water via a network of pipes to many buildings—heating and cooling them more efficiently. DISTRICT HEATING

Green roofs use soil and vegetation as living insulation. Cool roofs reflect solar energy. Both reduce building energy use for heating and/or cooling. GREEN ROOFS

HEAT PUMPS Heat pumps transfers heat from a cold space to a hot one. Highly efficient, they can dramatically lower building energy use for heating and cooling.

INSULATION Insulation is one of the most cost-effective ways to make buildings more energy efficient—both in new construction and through retrofitting older buildings.

LANDFILL Landfills are a top source of methane emissions. Instead, landfill methane can be METHANE captured, preventing emissions, and used as a fairly clean energy source.

LED LIGHTING Lighting accounts for 15 percent of global electricity use. LEDs (light emitting diodes) (COMMERCIAL) require less energy and create less waste heat than other bulbs.

LED LIGHTING By transferring most of their energy use into creating light—rather than heat, like (HOUSEHOLD) older technologies—LEDs reduce electricity consumption and air-conditioning loads.

NET ZERO A net zero building is one that has zero net energy consumption, producing as much BUILDINGS energy, through onsite renewables, as it uses in a year.

RETROFITTING Up to 80 percent of the energy buildings consume is wasted. Retrofitting them can

address waste through efficient insulation, heating and cooling systems, and lighting.

SMART GLASS Compared to walls, windows are inefficient insulators. Smart glass can respond to

sunlight and weather, reducing a building’s energy load for lighting, heating, and cooling.

SMART Thermostats are mission control for heating and cooling homes. Smart thermostats THERMOSTATS use algorithms and sensors to learn and become more energy efficient over time.

WALKABLE Walkable cities prioritize two feet over four wheels through careful planning and design. CITIES As people need to drive less and want to walk more, emissions decrease

WATER Pumping water requires enormous amounts of energy. By minimizing leaks in water- DISTRIBUTION distribution networks—currently wasting 8.6 trillion gallons annually—both energy and water are saved.

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MATERIALS

ALTERNATIVE Cement, a vital material for infrastructure, generates 5 to 6 percent of annual emissions. CEMENT The key strategy to reduce them is to change its composition.

BIOPLASTIC Ninety percent of plastics could be derived from plants instead of fossil fuels. Bio- plastics can be biodegradable and often have lower emissions.

HOUSEHOLD Household recycling can reduce emissions because producing new products from RECYCLING recovered materials often saves energy. It also reduces resource extraction and creates jobs. INDUSTRIAL Industrial recycling reduces emissions when new products are made from recovered RECYCLING materials, rather than virgin resources. It can also address the challenge of resource scarcity. RECYCLED Half of paper is used once and then trashed. Recycling makes paper’s journey circular, PAPER rather than a straight line from logging to landfill, which reduces emissions.

REFRIGERANT The primary chemical refrigerant, HFCs, is a potent greenhouse gas. Phasing out its use MANAGEMENT will reduce global warming by nearly one degree Fahrenheit.

WATER SAVING - Cleaning, transporting, and heating water requires energy. More efficient fixtures and HOME appliances can reduce home water use by 45 percent, thereby reducing emissions.

FOOD

BIOCHAR Biochar results from slowly baking biomass in the absence of oxygen. Retaining most of the feedstock’s carbon, biochar can be buried for sequestration, while enriching soil.

CLEAN Traditional cooking practices produce toxic smoke and 2 to 5 percent of COOKSTOVES annual greenhouse gas emissions. Clean cook stoves reduce emissions and protect human health.

COMPOSTING From backyard bins to industrial-scale operations, composting food waste converts organic material into stable soil carbon and valuable fertilizer, averting methane emissions.

CONSERVATION Conservation agriculture avoids tilling and employs cover crops and crop rotation. By AGRICULTURE protecting the soil, it makes land more resilient and sequesters carbon

FARMLAND Pumping and distributing water requires large quantities of energy. Drip and sprinkler IRRIGATION irrigation, among other practices and technologies, make water use more precise and efficient. FARMLAND The world’s abandoned farmland is an opportunity for drawdown. Restoring it sequesters RESTORATION carbon and can improve food security, farmers’ livelihoods, and ecosystem health.

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IMPROVED RICE Flooded rice paddies produce large quantities of methane—10 percent of agricultural CULTIVATION emissions. Techniques exist to reduce methane, while improving production and sequestering carbon.

MANAGED Managed grazing imitates the activity of migratory herds to improve soil health, carbon GRAZING sequestration, water retention, and forage productivity.

MULTISTRATA Multistrata agroforestry blends taller trees and one or more layers of crops. It achieves AGROFORESTRY high rates of carbon sequestration, similar to forests, while producing food.

NUTRIENT When overused, nitrogen fertilizers destroy soil organic matter, pollute waterways, and MANAGEMENT create nitrous oxide. They can be more efficiently managed to reduce these negative impacts.

PLANT-RICH Meat-centric diets come with a steep climate price tag: one-fifth of global emissions. DIET Plant-rich diets dramatically reduce emissions and rates of chronic disease

REDUCED FOOD Producing uneaten food squanders resources and generates 8 percent of emissions. WASTE Interventions can reduce waste at key points, as food moves from farm to fork.

REGENERATIVE The practices of regenerative agriculture increase carbon-rich soil organic matter. AGRICULTURE Enhancing and sustaining the health of the soil sequesters carbon and improves productivity.

SILVOPASTURE Silvopasture is an ancient practice, integrating trees and pasture into a single system for raising livestock. It sequesters carbon while improving animal health and productivity SYSTEM OF RICE SRI is a holistic approach to sustainable rice cultivation. It improves soil, lowers inputs of INTENSIFICATIO seeds and water, and increases yields, while reducing emissions. N

TREE Like all regenerative land-use practices, tree intercropping—intermingling trees and INTERCROPPING crops— increases the carbon content of the soil and productivity of the land.

TROPICAL Tropical staple trees provide important foods, such as bananas and avocado. Compared to STAPLE TREES annual crops, they have similar yields but higher rates of carbon sequestration.

BIOMASS Biomass energy is a “bridge” solution for transitioning to 100 percent clean, renewable energy. Using sustainable feedstock—waste biomass or perennial crops—is crucial.

Electricity Generation

COGENERATION Power plants produce large amounts of waste heat. Cogeneration systems capture that thermal energy and put it to work—for district heating or additional electricity.

CONCENTRATED Concentrated solar power uses solar radiation as its primary fuel. Arrays of mirrors SOLAR concentrate incoming rays to heat a fluid, produce steam, and turn turbines.

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ENERGY Standalone batteries and electric vehicles make it possible to store energy at home or STORAGE work. They ensure supply even when variable renewables are not producing (DISTRIBUTED)

ENERGY Energy storage—daily, multiday, and longer-term or seasonal—is vital to reduce STORAGE emissions from polluting “peaker” plants and accommodate the shift to variable (UTILITIES) renewables.

GEOTHERMAL Geothermal power—literally “earth heat”—taps into underground reservoirs of steamy hot water, which can be piped to the surface to drive turbines that produce electricity. GRID For electricity supply to become predominantly or entirely renewable, the grid needs to FLEXIBILITY become more flexible and adaptable than it is today. IN-STREAM Placed within a free-flowing river or stream, in-stream turbines capture water’s energy HYDRO without a dam. In remote communities, they can replace expensive, dirty diesel generators. METHANE Industrial-scale anaerobic digesters control decomposition of organic waste, and thus its DIGESTERS methane emissions. They also produce biogas, an energy source, and digestate, a nutrient- (LARGE) rich fertilizer.

METHANE At backyard- and farmyard-scale, anaerobic digesters are used to manage organic waste. DIGESTERS They control methane emissions, while producing biogas (an energy source) and digestate (SMALL) (nutrient-rich fertilizer).

MICRO WIND With capacity of 100 kilowatts or less, micro wind turbines are often used to pump water, charge batteries, and provide electrification in rural locations.

MICROGRIDS A microgrid is a localized grouping of distributed energy sources, like solar and wind, together with energy storage or backup generation and load management tools.

NUCLEAR Nuclear power is complex, expensive, and risky, but it has the potential to avoid emissions from fossil fuel electricity. We consider it a "regrets solution

ROOFTOP SOLAR Rooftop solar is spreading as its cost falls, driven by incentives to accelerate growth, economies of scale in manufacturing, and advances in photovoltaic technology.

SOLAR FARMS Solar farms tap the sun’s virtually unlimited, clean, and free fuel, using large-scale arrays of hundreds, thousands, or in some cases millions of photovoltaic panels.

SOLAR WATER Water heating is a major energy use. Solar water heaters use the sun’s radiation and can reduce energy consumption by 50 to 70 percent.

WASTE-TO- Incineration, gasification, and pyrolysis are means of deriving energy from trash. A ENERGY transitional solution, waste-to-energy can reduce emissions, but has high social and environmental costs.

WAVE AND Wave- and tidal-energy systems harness natural oceanic flows—among the most powerful TIDAL and constant dynamics on earth—to generate electricity.

WIND TURBINES With competitive costs and investment growing, offshore wind energy is at the crest of (OFFSHORE) initiatives to supply the world with clean power

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WIND TURBINES Proliferation of turbines, dropping costs, and heightened performance mean onshore wind (ONSHORE) farms are at the forefront of initiatives to address global warming.

TRANSPORT

AIRPLANES The airline industry produces at minimum 2.5 percent of emissions, and it is growing. Fuel efficiency measures are on the rise to reduce that impact.

CARS Hybrid cars pair an electric motor and battery with an internal combustion engine. The combination makes them more efficient, improving fuel economy and lowering emissions.

ELECTRIC BIKES Electric bikes get a boost from a small battery-powered motor. They are the most environmentally sound means of motorized transport in the world today.

ELECTRIC Electric vehicles are the cars of the future. If powered by solar energy, their carbon VEHICLE dioxide emissions drop by 95 percent compared to gasoline-powered vehicles.

HIGH-SPEED High-speed rail is the fastest way to travel distances between 100 to 700 miles. Compared RAIL to driving or flying, it reduces emissions up to 90 percent.

MASS TRANSIT Riding a streetcar, bus, or subway—rather than driving a car or hailing a cab—averts greenhouse gases, relieves traffic congestion, and reduces air pollution.

RIDESHARING Ridesharing pairs drivers and riders who share common origins, destinations, or stops en route. When trips are pooled, people split costs, ease traffic, and curtail emissions.

SHIPS Shipping produces 3 percent of global emissions. Fuel-saving ship design, onboard technologies, and practices can have a sizable impact, because of huge shipping volumes.

TELEPRESENCE Telepresence integrates high-performance visual, audio, and network technologies to enable people who are geographically separated to interact. By reducing travel, it can reduce emissions.

TRAINS Most trains are powered by diesel-burning engines. Technology and operations can improve fuel efficiency, and rail electrification has the potential to provide nearly emissions-free transport. TRUCKS Road freight is responsible for about 6 percent of global emissions. Increasing fuel efficiency in both new trucks and existing fleets can significantly reduce emissions

COMING ATTRACTIONS

ARTIFICIAL The artificial leaf is technology inspired by photosynthesis. It combines solar energy, LEAF water, and carbon dioxide, to feed bacteria that synthesize energy-dense fuel.

AUTONOMOUS Autonomous vehicles are on the rise. They have the potential to shrink the auto fleet and VEHICLES accelerate ridesharing and the adoption of electric vehicles.

BUILDING High-performance wood materials are transforming construction. They can reduce WITH WOOD emissions by (1) sequestering and storing carbon and (2) avoiding emissions of cement and steel.

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A COW WALKS Asparagopsis taxiformis, a species of seaweed, shows promise for reducing methane ONTO A BEACH emissions from livestock—currently 4 to 5 percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions.

DIRECT AIR Direct Air Capture systems are a nascent sequestration technology. Functioning like a CAPTURE chemical sieve and sponge, they capture carbon dioxide from air and release it in purified form.

ENHANCED Natural weathering of silicate rock sequesters carbon dioxide. Enhanced weathering aims WEATHERING OF to hasten that process by milling rock powder and applying it to landscapes. MINERALS

HYDROGEN- Tri Alpha Energy has achieved one-half of the nuclear fusion equation. It could herald BORON FUSION clean, safe, affordable energy to take the world beyond fossil fuels.

HYPERLOOP The promise of Hyperloop is speed. The virtue is moving people and cargo with 90 to 95 percent less energy than planes, trains, or cars.

INDUSTRIAL Hemp is a global warming solution primarily because of what it can replace: cotton. HEMP Cotton has high chemical use and depends on fossil fuel inputs.

INTENSIVE Intensive silvopasture intercrops a leguminous woody shrub with grasses and trees. SILVOPASTURE Through rapid rotational grazing, livestock yields increase alongside carbon sequestration in soil.

LIVING The Living Building Challenge holistically defines how buildings can benefit both people BUILDINGS and planet. One key criteria: Living buildings produce more energy than they use.

MARINE Marine permaculture utilizes floating, latticed structures designed to grow rich kelp PERMACULTURE forests and foster marine life. It could sequester billions of tons of carbon dioxide.

MICROBIAL Microbes have the potential to dramatically reduce the need for synthetic fertilizers, FARMING pesticides, and herbicides, while improving crop yields and plant health.

OCEAN Small-scale ocean farms have the potential to provide sustainable food and biofuel, while FARMING oysters filter nitrogen pollution and seaweed sequesters carbon dioxide

PASTURE In a pasture cropping system, annual crops are grown in a perennial pasture. Double- CROPPING cropping grains and animals sequesters carbon and improves farm health and productivity

PERENNIAL Perennial crops sequester carbon because they leave the soil intact. Researchers are CROPS pursuing grain, cereal, and oilseed plants that are perennial food providers.

REPOPULATING A vast ecosystem called the mammoth steppe once dominated the frozen north. Restoring THE MAMMOTH grazers and grassland could prevent carbon-rich permafrost from thawing and releasing STEPPE emissions

SMART GRIDS With two-way communication between suppliers and consumers, smart grids accommodate the fluctuations of wind and solar power. They also improve grid stability and overall efficiency.

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SMART The world’s first sustainable highway is being pioneered south of Atlanta, Georgia, HIGHWAYS emphasizing electric vehicle infrastructure and solar power to reduce carbon emissions.

SOLID-STATE Solid-state wave energy technology converts the ocean’s kinetic energy without external WAVE ENERGY moving parts. It is more robust in marine environments, rich with untapped renewable energy.

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Unit 3: End of Unit Notes

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Unit 4 Lesson 4-1: Bringing Drawdown Home, Selecting Specific Solutions of Interest and Specifying in Your Model

Introduction

Today, continuing to use resources from the Drawdown Project https://www.drawdown.org/solutions you begin to focus on Solutions that are of

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special interest to you. You’ll spend some time again on the Drawdown website thinking about systemic solutions that might be of special interest to you. In this section, you will focus on using systems thinking skills and habits to help understand how what you do in your local community may impact the environment and living things all across the globe. Using systems thinking skills you will also begin to think about work or jobs associated with the solutions which might interest you. You will continue to practice your Stella systems modeling skills and add your top three solutions of interest to the Drawdown sector model.

Objectives and Learning Goals

 Use systems thinking habits to deepen understanding of the connections between the solutions talked about in Drawdown and the systems of which you are a part  Gain an increased awareness of your own interests and strengths with regard to the Solutions and your own potential career  Continue to build Stella Modeling skills and capacity to integrate the drawdown solutions into the carbon cycle model

Time and Materials

For this module you will use:

 Stella Architect software with a pre-loaded Lesson 4-1. This will either be on your flash drive or can be downloaded at: https://www.dropbox.com/s/yeey03r90gknwhh/May28Pre-Loadforlesson4- 1%20%281%29.stmx?dl=0  Information and Lab Sheets on Drawdown from Lesson 3-4; and 4-1-A, 4-1-B, 4-1-C and 4-1-D  Internet access for websites:  Drawdown https://www.drawdown.org/  Pachamama Alliance Websites https://www.pachamama.org/  Stella Tutorials for reference at https://www.iseesystems.com/resources/tutorials/

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It is expected that this lesson can be completed in 60 minutes. Exercises for additional time are included.

Reflection Questions

1. Which of the drawdown solutions interests you the most? How can you support its implementation: In your family? In your school? In your city? In your country? Globally? 2. What strengths do you see in your community, family, and self as helping Drawdown? 3. What do you see as the key barriers to implementing Drawdown?

Integration and Scaffolding

In this Unit you practice your growing skills in the Habits of a Systems Thinker and your knowledge of global climate concerns. In Unit 3 you were introduced to Stella Architect and to Drawdown. Now in Unit 4 you begin to focus on the areas of solutions that are of most interest to you. You will insert information about your top three solutions of interest into the Carbon and Drawdown Stella model and think about one solution from viewpoint of various levels of action.

Where Does This Module Fit With Future Lessons?

In this Module you will dive deeper into a few particular solutions that are of interest to you. You will begin working on your chosen particular “Drawdown Solution” that will form the basis of your Stella modeling project presentation. In subsequent modules in Units 4 and 5 you will do more research on your Drawdown Solution or group of solutions, explore the Solutions both globally and locally with links to potential Green Jobs. You will prepare a final investigative modeling presentation for sharing with your community. One of the major lessons from Drawdown is that it will take virtually all of the Solutions studied to achieve the goals. We hope that the set of student models we develop together will help

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explore and publicize these solutions especially from an environmental justice perspective. Key Activities

Steps of Module 4-1

 Using the Information Sheet 4-1-A below recalling Lesson 3-4 circle three solutions that are of special interest to you.  Take a few minutes to complete Worksheet 4-1-B.  Now open the Pre-loaded Module 4-1 Stella file and save it as your (Practice file with your name, date, and word Practice)  In this Lesson using Worksheet 4-1-C you are going to add your three top Solutions of interest that you identified in Lesson 4-1-A Information Sheet and Lesson 4-1-B Worksheet to the appropriate sector into which it is categorized.  (Always know that you can review Stella using the tutorial) https://www.iseesystems.com/resources/tutorials/  Using the example in Lesson 4-1-C: Worksheet, your teacher will lead you through using the overhead projector. In the same manner, put your own chosen solutions into your practice model file.

Writing or Oral Sharing and Reflection Questions Discussion

 In Stella Map Mode in your Practice file—click on the three solutions you have put into the model and put information about your Solutions into the Stella Documentation Section for the variable. You can cut and paste

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documentation for the Solution from the Drawdown website or write you own explanations.  Be sure to always click the green arrow save button. When you finish be sure to save your model file so you will have it next time. We’ll return to this model in subsequent modules.  As time permits discuss complete Lesson 4-1-D. Pick one of your solutions that you entered into your Stella model and discuss with your partner the six levels of action. Write your answers and be sure to save your work in the Stella documentation space or other space as directed by your teacher. Check Out

Feedback

Please complete the question at https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/Unit4_1/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course. Thank you for your help.

Thinking About Building Your Project Portfolio

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Lesson 4-1-A: Information Sheet

Summary of Solutions by Rank CO2-EQ Reduction in GT Circle Your Top Three Solutions of Interest

Total Atmospher Net Cost Savings Rank Solution Sector ic CO2-EQ (Billions (Billions Reduction US$) US$) (GT) 1 Refrigerant Management Materials 89.74 N/A ($902.77) Electricity 2 Wind Turbines (Onshore) 84.6 $1,225.37 $7,425.00 Generation 3 Reduced Food Waste Food 70.53 N/A N/A 4 Plant-Rich Diet Food 66.11 N/A N/A 5 Tropical Forests Land Use 61.23 N/A N/A 6 Educating Girls Women and Girls 51.48 N/A N/A 7 Family Planning Women and Girls 51.48 N/A N/A Electricity 8 Solar Farms 36.9 ($80.60) $5,023.84 Generation 9 Silvopasture Food 31.19 $41.59 $699.37 Electricity 10 Rooftop Solar 24.6 $453.14 $3,457.63 Generation 11 Regenerative Agriculture Food 23.15 $57.22 $1,928.10 12 Temperate Forests Land Use 22.61 N/A N/A 13 Peatlands Land Use 21.57 N/A N/A 14 Tropical Staple Trees Food 20.19 $120.07 $626.97 15 Afforestation Land Use 18.06 $29.44 $392.33 16 Conservation Agriculture Food 17.35 $37.53 $2,119.07 17 Tree Intercropping Food 17.2 $146.99 $22.10 Electricity 18 Geothermal 16.6 ($155.48) $1,024.34 Generation 19 Managed Grazing Food 16.34 $50.48 $735.27 Electricity 20 Nuclear 16.09 $0.88 $1,713.40 Generation 21 Clean Cook stoves Food 15.81 $72.16 $166.28 Electricity 22 Wind Turbines (Offshore) 14.1 $545.30 $762.50 Generation 23 Farmland Restoration Food 14.08 $72.24 $1,342.47

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Improved Rice 24 Food 11.34 N/A $519.06 Cultivation Electricity 25 Concentrated Solar 10.9 $1,319.70 $413.85 Generation 26 Electric Vehicles Transport 10.8 $14,148.00 $9,726.40 Buildings and 27 District Heating 9.38 $457.10 $3,543.50 Cities 28 Multistrata Agroforestry Food 9.28 $26.76 $709.75 Electricity 29 Wave and Tidal 9.2 $411.84 ($1,004.70) Generation Methane Digesters Electricity 30 8.4 $201.41 $148.83 (Large) Generation Buildings and 31 Insulation 8.27 $3,655.92 $2,513.33 Cities 32 Ships Transport 7.87 $915.93 $424.38 LED Lighting Buildings and 33 7.81 $323.52 $1,729.54 (Household) Cities Electricity 34 Biomass 7.5 $402.31 $519.35 Generation 35 Bamboo Land Use 7.22 $23.79 $264.80 36 Alternative Cement Materials 6.69 ($273.90) N/A 37 Mass Transit Transport 6.57 N/A $2,379.73 38 Forest Protection Land Use 6.2 N/A N/A Indigenous Peoples’ Land 39 Land Use 6.19 N/A N/A Management 40 Trucks Transport 6.18 $543.54 $2,781.63 Electricity 41 Solar Water 6.08 $2.99 $773.65 Generation Buildings and 42 Heat Pumps 5.2 $118.71 $1,546.66 Cities 43 Airplanes Transport 5.05 $662.42 $3,187.80 LED Lighting Buildings and 44 5.04 ($205.05) $1,089.63 (Commercial) Cities Buildings and 45 Building Automation 4.62 $68.12 $880.55 Cities 46 Water Saving - Home Materials 4.61 $72.44 $1,800.12 47 Bioplastic Materials 4.3 $19.15 N/A Electricity 48 In-Stream Hydro 4 $202.53 $568.36 Generation 49 Cars Transport 4 ($598.69) $1,761.72 Electricity 50 Cogeneration 3.97 $279.25 $566.93 Generation 51 Perennial Biomass Land Use 3.33 $77.94 $541.89 52 Coastal Wetlands Land Use 3.19 N/A N/A

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System of Rice 53 Food 3.13 N/A $677.83 Intensification Buildings and 54 Walkable Cities 2.92 N/A $3,278.24 Cities 55 Household Recycling Materials 2.77 $366.92 $71.13 56 Industrial Recycling Materials 2.77 $366.92 $71.13 Buildings and 57 Smart Thermostats 2.62 $74.16 $640.10 Cities Buildings and 58 Landfill Methane 2.5 ($1.82) $67.57 Cities Buildings and 59 Bike Infrastructure 2.31 ($2,026.97) $400.47 Cities 60 Composting Food 2.28 ($63.72) ($60.82) Buildings and 61 Smart Glass 2.19 $932.30 $325.10 Cities 62 Women Smallholders Women and Girls 2.06 N/A $87.60 63 Telepresence Transport 1.99 $127.72 $1,310.59 Electricity 64 Methane Digesters (Small) 1.9 $15.50 $13.90 Generation 65 Nutrient Management Food 1.81 N/A $102.32 66 High-speed Rail Transport 1.52 $1,038.42 $368.10 67 Farmland Irrigation Food 1.33 $216.16 $429.67 Electricity 68 Waste-to-Energy 1.1 $36.00 $19.82 Generation 69 Electric Bikes Transport 0.96 $106.75 $226.07 70 Recycled Paper Materials 0.9 $573.48 N/A Buildings and 71 Water Distribution 0.87 $137.37 $903.11 Cities 72 Biochar Food 0.81 N/A N/A Buildings and 73 Green Roofs 0.77 $1,393.29 $988.46 Cities 74 Trains Transport 0.52 $808.64 $313.86 75 Ridesharing Transport 0.32 N/A $185.56 Electricity 76 Micro Wind 0.2 $36.12 $19.90 Generation Energy Storage Electricity 77 N/A N/A N/A (Distributed) Generation Electricity 77 Energy Storage (Utilities) N/A N/A N/A Generation Electricity 77 Grid Flexibility N/A N/A N/A Generation Electricity 78 Microgrids N/A N/A N/A Generation

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Buildings and 79 Net Zero Buildings N/A N/A N/A Cities Buildings and 80 Retrofitting N/A N/A N/A Cities 1034.75 $29,609.30 $74,362.37

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Lesson 4-1-B: Worksheet on 3 solutions of interest

What are the 3 solutions you felt drawn to and want to explore further? (Use info sheets in 3-4)

Sector Name of Solution of Interest Gt. Overall Carbon Rank Reduced

Why are these important to you?

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Do you know of how and where this solution might already be in operation?

What makes these solutions super cool?

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Lesson: 4-1-C: Example and Worksheet for Adding Three Specific Solutions of Interest to the Drawdown Model

1. In your Drawdown Sector Summary model, drawn in lesson 3-4, you have 7 sector flows, each with a connector that specifies the sum total for the

sector solutions and converts the amounts from CO2 to Carbon Equivalent by dividing by 3.664 and also converts to Gt/yr. by dividing by 30. 2. In this lesson 4-1 you are going to enter your specific solutions of interest by adding a separate converter to the appropriate sector and also subtracting the Gt from the solution of interest from the total for the sector renaming this converter as “All Other Food Converter”. 3. Identify the Sectors in which each of your solutions belong and fill out the table below. All three Solutions do not need to be in the same sector. In the example in your pre-loaded model two are in the Food sector and 1 is in the Land Use Sector. The table below gives the information. Example in the pre-loaded model

Solution Sector- Solution CO2 Reduction—converter equation total

Plant Rich Diet Food 66.11/30/3.66 321.9 66.11

Tree Food 17.2/30/3.66 Intercropping 321.9 17.2

Other Food Food (321.9-66.11-17.2)/30/3.66 Sector To make the Food Sum come out to the total of 321.9

321.9 we must remove the amounts we have given a separate 255.9 converter in our solutions of interest

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Temperate Land Use 22.61 /30/3.66 Forests 149.6

Other Land Use Land Use (149.6-22.61)/30/3.66

Sector 149.6

Following Example above Enter Your Top Three Solutions of Interest into the Pre-Loaded Model—then put the new converters in along with the connectors and fix the equations and run the model

Solution Sector & Solution CO2 Reduction Converter Equation Total

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4. In Stella add a converter for each of your three solutions and connect it to the appropriate sector. Use the information you put in the worksheet to define the equation for each of the three solutions. Then rename the connector that contained the total for the sector (All Other Solutions-Food) and subtract out the amounts in new specific solutions you added from the equation for the connector. 5. After you define all the added converters and have no more error messages, run the model. It should look the same as before you specified your solutions of interest because you have added and subtracted an equal amount to the sector totals. Stella does the summation for you.

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Lesson 4-1-D: Worksheet on Six Levels of Action (as time permits)

Pick one of the 3 solutions you listed in Worksheet 4-1-B. Brainstorm with your partner about the Solution considered at the various levels of action listed below. Think of opportunities or challenges for implementing that Solution at each level. For example, if your chosen Solution is Reducing Food Waste (the third largest potential impact Solution), some opportunities might be: (1) saving leftovers (individual); (2) better meal planning and composting food scrapes to build soil (family); (3) structures for surplus food distribution (community);(4) laws against food wastage in commercial establishments (state law/policy); (5). National Agricultural policy requiring leaving some land fallow and requiring surplus food distribution; (6) International agreements on structures needed to ensure food distribution to those who need it most.

After discussion take time to put you notes in worksheet below and save to your portfolio. This thought exercise will help inform your capstone project. Answer the questions about opportunities and challenges below for each level of action. Use more paper/space if needed.

Enter Name of Solution Here:

Level Notes on Opportunities and Challenges

Individual

Family

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Local Community

State

Nation

Global

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Unit 4 Lesson 4-2: Multisolving

Overview: What is Multisolving?

Multisolving is a problem-solving approach that aims to make people’s lives better today while taking actions that will make our climate better tomorrow. Climate solutions that also improve human health, access to good jobs, wellbeing, and equity are often more effective and bring more people and perspectives into the conversation.

In the previous lesson, you investigated and modeled three Drawdown solutions that either reduce CO2 emissions or sequester CO2 from Earth’s atmosphere. Today you will be exploring some of the benefits of implementing these solutions on community resilience, food and water, jobs and assets, health, wellbeing, and

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safety, connection, and energy and mobility. This practice of looking at solutions from multiple perspectives will prepare you for generating conversation with your peers and local community around the many positive impacts of specific climate actions.

Objectives and Learning Goals

 Become familiar with the concepts of “multisolving” and “co-benefits” as they relate to climate change solutions.  Articulate the value of approaching climate change solutions from a multisolving perspective.  Identify and analyze the impact of a Drawdown solution on natural and human systems.  Identify how viewing problems from multiple perspectives can help you communicate the positive impacts of climate action to audiences with different interests.

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Key Activities

 Read the introductory paragraph reprinted below titled, “What is Multisolving” from Climate Interactive’s website: https://www.climateinteractive.org/programs/multisolving/

Green spaces. Public transit. Energy efficiency. Bike lanes. Community gardens. Clean energy.

What do all of these policies have in common? They all mitigate climate change by reducing or sequestering greenhouse gases, and they all make up elements of attractive and livable communities. If done right, they can even contribute to a more equitable and just world.

We call these solutions, and dozens of others like them, multisolving – because they solve multiple problems with just one intervention.

Multisolving policies help protect the climate while also providing other co-benefits, such as improving health, disaster resilience, the economy, and access to healthy food and clean water. They help connect us to the natural world and people around us, and they do that while saving time and energy. They are, in short, win-win solutions for people and the climate.

 Read the following examples to see how multisolving is used in real-world projects.

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https://www.climateinteractive.org/category/multisolving-in-action/

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 After reading these two excerpts, answer in your Notebook: o What benefits, other than climate protection, do these multisolving examples provide? o Why do you think the multisolving approach adds more value to climate change solutions than an approach that focuses only on climate protection?  Read the “How to Read a FLOWER Diagram” worksheet from Climate Interactive (reproduced as Lesson 4-2-A: Worksheet) to better understand what each petal of the multisolving flower represents, including the meaning behind the shading of the flower petal.  Choose one of the solutions you modeled in the previous lesson to build a FLOWER diagram—you may find that one solution has more co-benefits than another! Drawdown’s “solutions” page can help you find the information to support your diagram. https://www.drawdown.org/solutions

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 Once you have chosen a solution, color and shade the blank FLOWER diagram (Use Lesson 4-2-B: Worksheet) to consider if and how your chosen solution addresses the goals of resilience, food and water, jobs and assets, health, wellbeing, and safety, connection, and energy and mobility. Make sure to include the title of your Drawdown solution on this worksheet.

Writing and Sharing:  Once you have finished coloring and shading your flower, provide 1-3 sentence responses to each question in your notebook: 1. How does the Drawdown solution protect the climate? 2. Are there any co-benefits of the project and, if so, what are they? 3. Who benefits? Everyone, those who are already well-off, or marginalized groups?  Discuss the answers to your notebook questions with a partner.

Check Out

Reflection

 Compile a 3-2-1 Chart for this session listing: 3 things I learned, 2 things I found interesting, 1 question I have. Post or submit your responses to your portfolio folder  As you CHECK OUT, be sure that you have saved a digital copy of your work to your folder.

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Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

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How to Read a FLOWER Diagram

The investment increases access to healthy food and clean water. The investment provides The investment builds meaningful work at a people’s capacity to living wage and builds survive or even thrive in the assets in a community. face of disruption.

Perimeter highly shaded - the benefit is targeted to vulnerable or marginalized groups Greyed- the investment doesn’t deliver the potential benefit The investment The investment brings improves mental, people secure physical, and spiritual access to energy, well being and creates The investment safe conditions to live the ability to make things they need, leaves people more and work within. and the ability to get connected to each Center highly around. other and to the earth which sustains shaded - the them, opening up benefit tends to new opportunities accrue to those already well off for multisolving.

Multisolving Tools climateinteractive.org/multisolving

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Blank FLOWER Diagram

Multisolving Tools climateinteractive.org/multisolving

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Unit 4 Lesson 4-3: Let’s Do This

Introduction: Making Meaningful Connections

Over the last four weeks you have had many opportunities to think about climate change and potential solutions for reducing C02 in the atmosphere by taking a systems approach. Now it’s your turn. For the remainder of this summer session you will:

 Build on what you have learned in previous units and on the work you have completed to identify a compelling question about your Solution, construct explanations, and design an investigation  Connect what you are learning to your local community  Modify the Drawdown Stella Model or prepare new model that includes your solution and simulate results about your Solution of interest  Collaborate with your peers and communicate your thinking on a compelling question with your community members.

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Objectives and Learning Goals for Final Project

 Plan an investigation around your Solution (s) of interest previously identified or some other solution you will design  Learn how to identify a compelling and feasible question about a solution to investigate  Further research your Solution with a focus on local people, resources and concerns  Continue to build your Stella Modeling skills  Create an Investigation Board that highlights your Solution and Stella Model  Prepare for your community showcase event

Key Activities

1. Review your flower graphic. In your Notebook respond to the following questions:  What Solution did you assess using FLOWER?  What Drawdown sector is it most closely connected to?  What do you see as the greatest benefits?  Who will benefit most from your solution?  What do you need to start investigating your Solution idea?

2. Based on your guided class discussion, prepare an investigation outline on poster paper with the following information.  Plans for your community forum: date, time, location, purpose  Investigation Partners:

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 Collaboration Topic (the idea or solution the pair of you have in common):  Local resources (including people) who may be available to share their expertise:  Places you might be able to do research on your compelling question: Are there university resources at your disposal? What about your local utility companies or municipal data bases.? Go back to your list of jobs from Unit 1 Lesson 2. Talk to someone in a field related to your question. 3. Participate in a gallery walk, visiting and giving feedback for two other posters. 4. Create a compelling question with your investigation partner: Your question should

 Be compelling to you.  Be linked to a drawdown solution.  Be able to be expressed and modeled in systems concepts of change over time of stocks, flows, connectors feedback and also reflect habits of systems concepts.  Be related to a Big Idea that impacts climate change, and it must  Be Specific enough that you can create a series of action steps you can take. Remember, systems thinkers are good at setting system boundaries.

Sample questions that meet the above criteria:

 What would be the impact of a “Meatless Monday Campaign” at my school that reduces carbon emissions by increasing the consumption of plant- based meals?  How much electricity could be saved by unplugging electronics when they are not in use?

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 How could wind-generated power become part of the drawdown solution in my region?

5. Add your compelling question to your poster, revisit the gallery walk giving feedback on the investigation questions. Collect the feedback for your team’s question from your classmates and instructor and use it to revise your poster information, as needed. 6. Once you have created your compelling question you will research the impact, the feasibility and the background information on that question. Show the list of resources you plan to use on your poster. 7. Use the “My System of Interest” Worksheet found at the end of this lesson (same sheet from Lesson 1-1) to describe a system directly connected to your question.

Check Out

Reflection

Record your plans for researching the worksheet topics of your question in your notebook.

As you CHECK OUT, be sure that you have saved a digital copy of your work to your folder.

Feedback

Please complete the questions at

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Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

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Lesson 4-3-1: My System of Interest

Choose a system connected to your Drawdown solution. Identify the four components of that system of interest.

 Elements

 Interconnections

 Goal

 Dynamics

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Unit 4 Lesson 4-4: RESEARCH

Introduction: Building Expertise

An expert is someone who has authoritative knowledge or skill in a particular area. This is your chance to develop expertise around your proposed Drawdown Solution. When scientists plan and carry out investigations, they must clarify what counts as data while identifying their specific parameters and variables. You have selected a Drawdown Solution and developed it into a compelling question. Today you need to focus on what else you need to know to present with authority on your topic.

Your research will allow you to practice the Science and Engineering standard Planning and Carrying out Investigations. Scientists and engineers plan and carry out investigations in the field or laboratory, working collaboratively as well as

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individually. Their investigations are systematic and require clarifying what counts as data and identifying variables or parameters. You most likely will not be able to carry out your full investigations, but you should have a viable research plan and include in your final presentation specific next steps you could take.

Objectives and Learning Goals for Final Project

 Identify your compelling question  Identify or Design a Drawdown Solution and plan an investigation  Research your ideas with a focus on local people, resources and concerns  Create an Investigation Board that highlights your solution  Prepare for your community showcase event

Key Activities

1. CRITERIA: Take a minute to review the criteria for your Investigation Board.

Category Scoring Criteria Total Points

Compelling The question is clearly stated. 20 Question

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Research The research summary is well-explained, documented, and 20 Summary complete.

STELLA Model Illustrates the proposed solution in an organized manner 20 that illustrates change over time with various flow levels

Systems Evidence of how the Habits of a Systems Thinker was 20 Thinking applied to the research.

Next Steps A clear explanation of the next steps for the presenters 20 and the community is communicated.

Score Total Points 100

2. Using your poster from the previous lesson complete your engineering design outline. 3. RESEARCH: Each investigation partner should select and conduct research topics that you will write into the research summary section. 4. When you have completed your individual research, come together and synthesize your learning into a coherent summary for the board. 5. SOLUTION: What do you need to do and in what order would you need to do it, to launch your solution in your community?

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Check Out

Reflection

In your notebook or journal make notes of which aspects of your presentation are complete and which ones you will need to work on next week.

Feedback

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Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

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ENGINEERING DESIGN GUIDE

NAME Date Start: ______

Project Date End: ______

Compelling Question

Proposed Solution

Action or Project

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Impact of Idea

What action do I want my community to take?

Local Connections, Resources and Related Green Jobs

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How would you express your solution or idea in terms of a Stock-Flow Map and a Stella Model?

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Research Summary

Important Facts for this Investigation (Main Idea) Where did I find my information? (Source)

What information do I still need or what questions do I have?

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Investigation

Steps for the investigation?

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Presentation Criteria

Investigation Board

Category Scoring Criteria Total Score Points

Compelling The question is clearly stated. 20 Question

Research The research summary is well-explained, 20 Summary documented, and complete.

STELLA Illustrates the proposed solution in an organized 20 Model manner.

Systems Evidence of how the Habits of a Systems 20 Thinking Thinker was applied to the research.

Next Steps A clear explanation of the next steps for the 20 presenters and the community is communicated.

Score Total Points 100

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Presentation

Category Scoring Criteria Total Score Points

Introduction is clear and interesting. 10

Organization The flow of the presentation is smooth from 10 introduction through the conclusion.

The material presented is well-researched and 10 follows the Habits of a Systems Thinker.

Use evidence and examples from your research 15 beyond what is written in your visual aid

10 Content Make explicit connection to Drawdown

Explain how your model shows impact of your idea 10

Identify next steps and why this idea is important to 15 your community

Communicate ideas clearly 5

Demonstrate poise and enthusiasm 5

Presentation Use standard English grammar 5

Share your new knowledge with confidence 5

Score Total Points 100

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Unit 4: End of Unit Notes

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Unit 5 Lesson 5-1: You Can Make a Difference:

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Introduction: Finding Leverage

Throughout this course you have been developing systems thinking skills, while gaining an understanding of accumulations and their rates of change that are sometimes referred to as stock-flow or bathtub thinking. In today’s session, you will revise the part of your investigation board that features a STELLA model to show the possible impact of your solution to the accumulation of C02. Along with the local and regional connections to your solution model, predict the effects of your solution could have a global scale. Dream big. You can make a difference.

Objectives

 Manipulate the drawdown STELLA model to show the possible impact of your

compelling questions on overall C02 Drawdown. Post the model to your investigation board  Create graphs from your model. Post the graphs to your investigation board.  Explain your process.

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Key Activities

1. Review your saved work from Lesson 4-1. 2. With your partner, select and open the Drawdown model sector that fits your investigation solution (or compelling question) in STELLA. 3. List the elements your solution might impact in your notebooks. 4. Adjust one factor at a time. Record the results of each change on predictions, stocks and effects. 5. Describe your team’s findings and evidence in your notebooks. 6. Take a screen shot of your model and print an image of your model and graphs to display on your investigation board.

Check Out

Reflection

Develop talking points for discussion of your investigation board. List (3) ways the model explains your solution, (2) ways the graphs present what happens in the solution, (1) solution idea that requires more explanation.

As you CHECK OUT, be sure that you have saved a digital copy of your work to your folder.

Feedback

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Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

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Unit 5 Lesson 5-2: Bringing It All Together

Rehearsal, Refinement and Revision

Sometime in the next several days you and your fellow classmates will be sharing your knowledge of climate change with members of your community. Your work over the last few sessions gives you an opportunity to practice and apply Science and Engineering Practice #8 Obtaining, Evaluating, and Communicating Information Orally, Graphically, Textually, Mathematically. Scientists and engineers must be able to communicate their ideas, methods and feedback clearly and persuasively, individually and in groups.

During the Community Forum, you will share your knowledge of climate change, solution related investigations, and Stella models with members of your community. Today as you finalize your presentation, you will practice your presentation and give feedback to your peers. Quality feedback is more than “good job” or “I really like that.” The type of feedback you offer your peers should be specific enough to

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help them see exactly what they are doing that meets the assignment criteria or ask thoughtful questions so they can refine their presentations.

The title of this session is also an important part of your learning journey. Sometimes in school you complete a task, you get a grade and you move on. This project is designed for you to apply your learning and make a difference. You will be presenting an actual idea to a real audience. Take advantage of today to rehearse your presentation, consider the feedback you receive, check results and make changes as needed (practice successive approximation).

Learning Outcomes

 Complete your Investigation Board  Give and receive feedback on final presentation  Revise your work as needed  Prepare for celebration of learning

Key Activities

1. Review the criteria for your final presentation and Investigation board (Lesson 5-2-A). 2. In groups of four pairs, give your presentation as you will at the community forum. 3. Complete and submit feedback forms for each pair’s presentation you view. 4. Review your team’s feedback.

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5. Make final revisions and prepare for the big day.

Check Out

Reflection

In your Notebook record how you applied the Habits of a Systems Thinker in preparing for your final presentation. Reference at least two Habits. Be specific.

As you CHECK OUT, be sure that you have saved a digital copy of your work to your folder.

Feedback

Please complete the questions at

https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/5_2/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

Post-Survey

After the program, please complete the questions at

https://fs12.formsite.com/DZNAsc/Post_Survey/index.html

Your answers will help us improve the course. Thanks for your help.

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Lesson 5-2-A: Criteria for an Effective Presentation

 Introduction is clear and interesting  Communicate ideas clearly  Make explicit connection to Drawdown  Explain how your model shows impact of your idea  Articulate next steps and why this idea is important to your audience  Use evidence and examples from your research beyond what is written in your visual aid  Use standard English grammar  Demonstrate poise and enthusiasm  Share your new knowledge with confidence

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Lesson 5-2-B: Peer Feedback Sheet

 Comments on Introduction (Captures the audience’s attention? Clear Topic?)

 Comments on Content (Topic match the investigation board? Does it have a clear connection to drawdown? Does it include information on the thinking that went into the idea and the model? Are there clear next steps?)

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 Do you have any questions for the presenter about their idea that might need to be answered in the presentation?

 Comments on Delivery o Speaking (clear? Easy to understand? Grammar? Volume?)

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o Body Language (eye contact? Gestures? Nervous mannerisms?

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