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Comoros Poverty Assessment Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Union of Comoros Public Disclosure Authorized Comoros Poverty Assessment Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized April, 2017 GPV01 AFRICA Public Disclosure Authorized 1 2 Acknowledgement This report has been prepared by Nadia Belhaj Hassine Belghith (GPV01 and TTL). Additional research and writing support was provided by Pierre de Boisseson (GPV01); Shinya Takamatsu (GPV01); Faniry Nantenaina Razafimanantsoa Harivelo (GMF13); Natasha Sharma (GMF13); and Shireen Mahdi (GMF13). Data preparation benefitted from support by Agnès Zabsorné (African School of Economics, Benin) and Maria A. Lopera (University of Munich LMU). The analysis on the labor market and informality was prepared by Muthoni Ngatia (AFRCE), Julia Rachel Ravelosoa (GSP01) and Pierre de Boisseson (GPV01) with the supervision of Andrea Vermehren (GSP01). The fiscal incidence analysis was prepared by Jon Jellema (University of California Berkley) and benefitted from additional support by Shireen Mahdi (GMF13), Ruth Hill (GPV01) and Gabriela Inchauste (GPV03). The analysis of remittances was conducted by Mireia Duran Mate (Georgetown University). The team worked closely with the researchers to ensure the consistency of the analytical methods, findings, and main messages. Support from Sylvaine Cussac (Consultant) for the editing of the report is gratefully acknowledged. The team would like to extend its sincere thanks to the National Institute of Statistics, Economic and Demographic Studies (INSEED) and the Ministry of Finance and Budget of Comoros for the important support and critical feedback provided throughout the preparation of the report. The team would also like to thank constructive comments and suggestions from Rose Mungai (GPV07), Clarence Tsimpo (GPV01), Victor Sulla (GPV07), and Carolin Geginat (AFCS2). The team expresses its sincere gratitude to Said Ali Antoissi (AFMMG) for his tremendous support in organizing the meetings with the Government of Comoros and facilitating the access to the information required for the preparation of this report. The team gratefully acknowledges guidance from Pablo Fajnzylber (Practice Manager GPV01), Pierella Paci (acting Practice Manager GPV01), Coralie Gevers (Country Manager AFMMG), and Mark Lundell (Country Director AFCS2). Finally, the team offers its sincere thanks to Martin Buchara (GPV01), Senait Yifru (GPV01), and Arlette Sourou (GPV01) for their valuable assistance during the preparation of the report. 3 Contents Acknowledgement .......................................................................................................................... 3 Acronyms and Abbreviations ...................................................................................................... 11 Glossary ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 13 Chapter I – Country Context: Macroeconomic Performance and Governance Environment ........................................................................................................................................................ 32 I. Macroeconomic performance: trends since the 2000s ....................................................... 33 II. Governance environment ................................................................................................... 44 Chapter II – The Extent of Poverty and Inequality .................................................................. 50 I. Snapshot of consumption poverty in 2014 .......................................................................... 51 II. The Characteristics of the poor .......................................................................................... 56 III. The Level and Structure of Inequality ............................................................................ 61 Chapter III – The Evolution of Poverty and Living Conditions .............................................. 74 I. Trends in poverty and inequality since 2004 ...................................................................... 74 II. Households’ Living Conditions and Human Development Outcomes ........................... 82 III. Extent and Evolution of Multidimensional Poverty ....................................................... 99 Chapter IV – Employment in Formal and Informal Economy .............................................. 109 I. Labor Force characteristics and participation .................................................................... 110 II. Unemployment and Underemployment .......................................................................... 117 III. Employment Structure .................................................................................................... 123 IV. Informal Sector ................................................................................................................ 133 Chapter V – Migration and Remittances ................................................................................. 141 I. The Comorian Diaspora ......................................................................................................... 142 II. Size of Remittances: Macro Data – Central Bank and International Organizations ..... 150 III. Size and Use of Remittances: Micro Data - Household Surveys ..................................... 155 IV. Discrepancies between Central Bank and Household Survey Data ................................ 161 Chapter VI – Fiscal Incidence Analysis ................................................................................... 164 I. Incidence of public expenditure ......................................................................................... 167 II. Taxation incidence ............................................................................................................. 171 Appendices .................................................................................................................................. 176 4 References ................................................................................................................................... 213 5 List of Tables Table I.1: Selected Fiscal and Economic Indicators, 2000-2015 (percentage of GDP – unless otherwise indicated) . 34 Table II.1: Poverty Headcount for Alternative Poverty Lines ...................................................................................... 54 Table II.2: Poverty incidence (Percentage) .................................................................................................................. 56 Table II.3: Decomposition of Inequality by Household Attributes .............................................................................. 64 Table II.4: Contributions of Circumstances to Overall Inequality ............................................................................... 72 Table III.1: Returns Effect and Endowment Effect over Time .................................................................................... 81 Table III.2: Gender parity, 2004-2014 (girl-to-boy enrollment ratio) .......................................................................... 94 Table III.3: Anthropometric indicators, 2012 (percentage of children) ....................................................................... 98 Table III.4: Multidimensional Deprivations Indicators .............................................................................................. 101 Table III.5: Contribution of the different dimensions to the MPI by region (percentage) ......................................... 106 Table III.6: Variation of the MPI with the cutoff levels ............................................................................................. 107 Table IV.1: Participation rate measured by educational attainment (percentage) ...................................................... 112 Table IV.2: Level of Education by Type of Unit (percentage)................................................................................... 136 Table V.1: Emigrant stock 2010/11 by Level of Education, Gender and Age ........................................................... 147 Table V.2: Emigrant stock 2000 by Level of Education, Gender and Age ................................................................ 147 Table V.3: Duration of Stay of Comorian Emigrants by Level of Education and Gender ......................................... 148 Table V.4: Labor Force Status by Sex and Level of Education, 2000 and 2010/11 ................................................... 149 Table V. 5: Occupation of Comorian emigrants by level of education and sex, 2010/11 vs 2000 ............................. 150 Table V. 6: Average amount of foreign remittances received over the last 12 months (in KMF) ............................. 156 Table V.7: Average amount of foreign remittances received over the last 12 months (in USD) ............................... 156 Table V.8: Average amount of foreign remittances received over the last 12 months for poor and non-poor (in KMF) .................................................................................................................................................................................... 156 Table V.9: Average amount of foreign remittances received over the last 12 months for poor and non-poor (in USD) ...................................................................................................................................................................................
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