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A Step Closer to Understanding the Dubai Residential Market

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A Step Closer to Understanding the Dubai Residential Market A step closer to understanding the Dubai residential market Prepared by AA Valuation - Market Research Division September 11, 2019 Who We Are Based in Dubai, we operate under the umbrella of AA Real Estate Valuation Services, AA Real Estate Development and AA Real Estate Brokers. We assist client from diverse geographical backgrounds, including illustrious names from Fortune500 & Forbes’ lists, with all property enquires. Our range of comprehensive real estate solutions include premium class advisory, high-end luxury real estate development , property brokerage, research, and valuation services aim to deliver client unique experience. Crown jewel of our achievement is “The Ocean Breeze villas” located in Palm Jumeirah, developed by AA Real Estate Development, it is Syed Salman Ahmed one of its kind in Dubai. CEO AA Valuation AA Real Estate Valuation Services AA Valuation offers tailored real estate valuation & research advisory solutions for residential and commercial ventures. We pride ourselves on delivering full spectrum of high quality, smooth and transparent valuation services. Our company specializes in the surveying of residential and commercial properties for sale and leasing; fueled by core industry knowledge of the real estate market in Dubai and its neighboring emirates. We are known for our strategic real estate support and delivery of best valuations services; offering the highest rate of financial gain to our clients. Our Vision: Be a one STOP solution for the property surveying Industry. To provide multiple application solutions for the valuation sector, while being able to contribute to society at large. Our Mission: To be established as the most prestigious, trustworthy, service-oriented property surveying company in the region with a loyal customer base and a sterling reputation Inspiration Welcome to our point of view Using data to help develop a better understanding of the Dubai residential real estate market. Key elements of this report are Villa and Apartment price per square feet (SQF) and its relationship with supply. We believe historical data is the key to understanding and interpreting what is instore for the future. Relationship of Villa and Apartment with different factors is key in extracting market insights to help investors in decision making. Historical data is the key to understanding Syed Fahad Ehsan Market Research Head and interpreting what is instore for the AA Valuation future Contents 1. Overview of Dubai residential real estate 2. Relationship of apartment & villa 3. Drivers of Dubai residential market • Relationship of supply with sale price 4. Dubai residential market – Where to invest? 1. Overview of Dubai residential real estate Brief overview of Dubai Residential Real Estate History • End of Q3’08 saw the economic crisis hit Dubai real estate • Yemen and Syrian conflict Q1’11 • Q2’16 Dubai Financial Market market. As the demand for real estate dropped among the • EIBOR drops further as the liquidity situation launched a large block trade service • Cost of borrowing increases (EBIOR) continues affluent target market in the UAE market improves in Q1’11 “Direct Deals Service”. to increase as Fed raises rates throughout 2017 • As the market deals with the economic crisis, gold • UAE government initiative in Q2’11 of • The price of gold has been on the and 2018. considered a safe haven for investment regains extending the three-year visas to owners of rise since start of 2016, gold is • Oil prices rebound after OPEC agreed in momentum by the end of 2018. With gold prices scaling properties worth AED1M or more is seen as considered a safe investment, November 2016 to reduce supply in Q1’17. new heights every quarter, demand remains strong very positive impact on the market. owing to low economic growth, • Emaar Properties, announced at the end of throughout the period. • Q3’11 sees a number of positive news from and drops in Q4’16 as the demand Q2’17 to float up to 30 per cent of its real estate • To better reflect market conditions UAE central bank banking industry which stimulates the from key Asians is week. business on the DFM in 2017. announced establishing an official interbank rate for market. • Q4’16 Central Bank UAE proposes • The gold prices rise throughout 2017.The rise is dirham in Q3’09.. • Dubai’s largest bank and a major finance reforms to determine interbank mainly due to uncertainties in the Eurozone • Dubai Financial Market (DFM) made an offer to Acquire house may offer mortgages on completed offered rates between banks in the • Emaar shareholders approve listing of real NASDAQ Dubai for US$ 121 Million at the end of Q4’09. houses to lure overseas buyers back into UAE. estate arm on Dubai’s DFM at the start of Q4’17 • EIBOR falls post Dubai World debt deal in Q2’10 the market. • Middle East saw the start of Arab Spring in Tunisia and • HSBC eased restrictions by cutting interest Egypt at end of Q4’10. rates, lowered the payment requirements and increased the amount of money it was prepared to lend house buyers aiming to secure a loan in Dubai. • HSBC also lowered its monthly salary requirement for borrowers by 25 percent to AED15,000. • Q3’11, market reacts to concern over Eurozone debt crisis and economic health of US, as gold prices touched an all-time high 1,600 average 201.44 per gram in Q3’11. 1,500 • Q4’11, one of Dubai’s biggest real estate 1,400 developer sees niche for low-cost housing property for someone with an income level AED per AED SQF 1,300 of around AED12,000 a month. 1,200 • Q2’13, gold bubble burst as market registers biggest gold price fall in 30 years. 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: REIDIN Dubai Apartment AED SQF Dubai Villa AED SQF Q1 & Q2 2. Relationship of apartment & villa Understanding apartment and villa – per square feet pricing As one would expect apartment sales and rental and villa sales and rental have a strong relationship (based on the data seen below). 1,600 120 1,600 80 1,400 1,400 70 100 1,200 1,200 60 80 1,000 1,000 50 800 60 800 40 600 600 30 40 400 400 20 20 200 200 10 0 0 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Dubai Apartment AED SQF Apartment Rental Dubai Villa AED SQF Villa Rental Source: REIDIN Interestingly both apartment and villas sales price (SQF) follow a very similar pattern. Based on analysis, both have a very strong correlation with each other, indicating that if one increases the other should follow. Our analysis also confirmed that “Sale Price of Villa” is an important driving factor for “Sale Price of Apartment” and vice versa. Even though these two factors have some similarities with each other, both “Sale price of Apartment and “Sale price of Villa” have distinct major drivers that came out from our model and a few common factors. Main reason for having different driving factors is return on investment. Apartment is considered a shorth term investment as majority of the drivers have short-term return (less than a year), while villa on the other hand being a bigger investment and a lot more at stake is driven by factors that have long-term return (more than a year). 3. Drivers of Dubai residential market – Supply AA Valuations Data Model – Supply as driver of Dubai residential market After reviewing the brief history of Dubai Residential Real Estate, one clearly understands there are many factors that affect sale price of residential apartment and villas in Dubai. However it is critical to understand the most important factors that drive price (price per square feet) and in the process clarify notions held by experts that cannot be backed by data. For detailed understanding of the important factors please contact AA Valuation team. Oil Prices Population Growth Supply of residential units Mortgage rate/Interest rate UAE GDP Political News Jobs Creation Relationship of supply with sale price All the experts, articles and industry reports mentioned supply having key role in driving prices (per SQF). This notion also makes sense to one’s logical thinking i.e. If there is more supply of apartments and villas in market, then prices should reduce, if demand remains constant. However Dubai supply’s relationship with price is not as easy. There are two elements to understand supply: 1. Supply - Property Launch date: The announcement by property developer to launch the number of units in market. 2. Supply - Property Ready to move in (actual supply): The announcement by the property developer that the units are ready to live in by customers. Both have a unique relationship with price in the Dubai residential market. “Supply - Property launch date” relationship with Price “Supply - Property Launch date” has a positive and medium to strong relationship with “Sales of Apartment and Villas”, based on the date and outcome of our model, i.e. the more there launches the higher would be the sale price (per SQF). This relationship can be described as market reaction to new property launches. New Launches create market hype backed by huge advertising spends. This leads to investors, developers and buyers speculating on the positive atmosphere in real estate market and in turn leads to price increase(seen in 2003 – start of 2008 and 2013 -2014) or doesn’t let the price fall (as seen in 2016 -2017), as it boosts confidence in the market. 1,500 60,000 1,400 55,000 Units 1,300 50,000 AED per AED SQF 1,200 1,100 45,000 1,000 40,000 900 35,000 800 30,000 700 600 25,000 500 20,000 400 15,000 300 10,000 200 100 5,000 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 & Q2 Dubai Apartment AED SQF Dubai Villa AED SQF Launch of Apartments Launch of Villas Source: REIDIN “Supply - ready to move in (actual supply)” relationship with Price On the other hand “Supply No.
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