cover next page > title : Visions : How Science Will Revolutionize the Twenty-first Century author : Kaku, Michio. publisher : Oxford University Press isbn10 | asin : 0192880187 print isbn13 : 9780192880185 ebook isbn13 : 9780585244884 language : English subject Science--Forecasting, Twenty-first century--Forecasts. publication date : 1999 lcc : Q125.K35 1999eb ddc : 363.107 subject : Science--Forecasting, Twenty-first century--Forecasts. cover next page > < previous page page_i next page > Page i Visions Michio Kaku is the Henry Semat Professor of Theoretical Physics at the City College of New York. An internationally acclaimed physicist, he is the co-founder of string field theory. He graduated from Harvard and received his Ph.D. from Berkeley. He is the author of the critically acclaimed and bestselling Hyperspace, as well as Beyond Einstein (with Jennifer Thompson), Quantum Field Theory: A Modern Introduction, and Introduction to Superstrings. He hosts a weekly hour-long radio science programme that is nationally syndicated. < previous page page_i next page > < previous page page_ii next page > Page ii Other books by Michio Kaku HYPERSPACE BEYOND EINSTEIN < previous page page_ii next page > < previous page page_iii next page > Page iii Visions How Science Will Revolutionize the Twenty-First Century Michio Kaku City University of New York, New York, USA Oxford New York Melbourne OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS < previous page page_iii next page > < previous page page_iv next page > Page iv Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP Oxford New York Athens Auckland Bangkok Bogotá Buenos Aires Calcutta Cape Town Chennai Dares Salaam Delhi Florence Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Mumbai Nairobi Paris São Paulo Singapore Taipei Tokyo Toronto Warsaw and associated companies in Berlin Ibadan Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press © Michio Kahu 1998 The moral rights of the author have been asserted First published 1998 First issued as an Oxford University Press paperback 1999 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press. Within the UK, exceptions are allowed in respect of any fair dealing for the purpose of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of the licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction in accordance with the terms of the licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms and in other countries should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above This book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, re-sold, hired out or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Data available ISBN 0 19 288018 7 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Printed in Great Britain by Cox and Wyman Ltd Reading, Berkshire < previous page page_iv next page > < previous page page_v next page > Page v This book is dedicated to my parents < previous page page_v next page > < previous page page_vii next page > Page vii CONTENTS Preface ix Part One Visions Chapter 1 3 Choreographers of Matter, Life, and Intelligence Part Two The Computer Revolution Chapter 2 23 The Invisible Computer Chapter 3 43 The Intelligent Planet Chapter 4 70 Machines That Think Chapter 5 99 Beyond Silicon: Cyborgs and the Ultimate Computer Chapter 6 118 Second Thoughts: Will Humans Become Obsolete? Part Three The Biomolecular Revolution Chapter 7 139 Personal DNA Codes Chapter 8 162 Conquering CancerFixing Our Genes Chapter 9 181 Molecular Medicine and the Mind/Body Link Chapter 10 200 To Live Forever? < previous page page_vii next page > < previous page page_viii next page > Page viii Chapter 11 220 Playing God: Designer Children and Cones Chapter 12 241 Second Thoughts: The Genetics of a Brave New World? Part Four The Quantum Revolution Chapter 13 265 The Quantum Future Chapter 14 295 To Reach for the Stars Chapter 15 322 Toward a Planetary Civilization Chapter 16 338 Masters of Space and Time Notes 356 Recommended Reading 389 Index 394 < previous page page_viii next page > < previous page page_ix next page > Page ix PREFACE This is a book about the limitless future of science and technology, focusing on the next 100 years and beyond. A book with the proper scope, depth, and accuracy necessary to summarize the exciting and fast-paced progress of science could not be written without the insights and wisdom of the scientists who are making the future possible. Of course, no one person can invent the future. There is simply too much accumulated knowledge, there are too many possibilities and too many specializations. In fact, most predictions of the future have floundered because they have reflected the eccentric, often narrow viewpoints of a single individual. The same is not true of Visions. In the course of writing numerous books, articles, and science commentaries, I have had the rare privilege of interviewing over 150 scientists from various disciplines during a ten-year period. On the basis of these interviews, I have tried to be careful to delineate the time frame over which certain predictions will or will not be realized. Scientists expect some predictions to come about by the year 2020; others will not materialize until much laterfrom 2050 to the year 2100. As a result, not all predictions are created equalsome are more forward looking and necessarily more speculative than others. The time frames I've identified in the book, of course, are to be taken only as guidelines, to give readers a sense of when certain trends and technologies can be expected to emerge. The outline for the book is as follows: In Part I of Visions, I discuss the remarkable developments that await us in the computer revolution, which are already beginning to transform business, communications, and our lifestyles, and which I believe will one day give us the power to place intelligence in every part of our planet. In Part II, I turn to the biomolecular revolution, which will ultimately give us the power to alter and syn- < previous page page_ix next page > < previous page page_x next page > Page x thesize new forms of life, and crate new medicines and therapies. Part III focuses on the quantum revolution, perhaps the most profound of the three, which will give us control over matter itself. I wish to thank the following scientists who have given me their time, advice, and invaluable insights in the course of writing this book: Walter Gilbert, Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, Harvard University Murray Gell-Mann, Nobel Laureate in Physics, Santa Fe Institute Henry Kendall, Nobel Laureate in Physics, MIT Leon Lederman, Nobel Laureate in Physics, Illinois Institute of Technology Steven Weinberg, Nobel Laureate in Physics, University of Texas Joseph Rotbalt, physicist, Nobel Laureate in Peace Carl Sagan, Director, Laboratory for Planetary Studies, Cornell University Steven Jay Gould, Professor of Biology, Harvard University Douglas Hofstadter, Pulitzer Prize winning author, Indiana University Michael Dertouzos, Director of MIT Laboratory for Computer Sciences Paul Davies, author and cosmologist, University of Adelaide Hans Moravec, Robotics Institute, Carnegie-Mellon University Daniel Crevier, AI expert, CEO of Coreco, Inc. Jeremy Rifkin, founder of Foundation for Economic Trends Philip Morrison, Professor of Physics, MIT Miguel Virasoro, Director, International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy Mark Weiser, Xerox PARC Larry Tesler, chief scientist, Apple Computer Paul Ehrlich, environmentalist, Stanford University Paul Saffo, Director, Institute for the Future Francis Collins, Director, National Center for Human Genome Research (NCHG), National Institutes of Health Michael Blaese, Clinical Gene Therapy Branch (NCHG), National Institutes of Health Lawrence Brody, Laboratory of Gene Transfer (NCHG), National Institutes of Health Eric Green, Diagnostic Development Branch (NCHG), National Institutes of Health Jeffrey Trent, Director, Division of Intramural Research (NCHG), National Institutes of Health Paul Meltzer, Laboratory of Cancer Genetics (NCHG), National Institutes of Health Leslie Biesecker, Laboratory of Genetic Disease Research (NCHG), National Institutes of Health Anthony Wynshaw-Boris, Laboratory of Genetic Disease Research (NCHG), National Institutes of Health Steven Rosenberg, Head of Surgery, National Institutes of Health < previous page page_x next page > < previous page page_xi next page > Page xi Lieutenant Colonel Robert Bowman, Director, Institute for Space and Security Studies Paul Hoffman, Editor in Chief, Discover magazine Leonard Hayflick, Professor of Anatomy at the University of California at San Francisco School of Medicine Edward Witten, physicist, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton Cumrun Vafa, physicist, Harvard University Paul Townsend, physicist, Cambridge University Alan Guth, cosmologist, MIT Barry Commoner, environmentalist,