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Country Report Kenya at a Glance: 2003-04

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Country Report Kenya at a Glance: 2003-04 Country Report Kenya Kenya at a glance: 2003-04 OVERVIEW Despite the landslide victories won by the new president, Mwai Kibaki, and the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), the new regime confronts formidable challenges. Apart from reviving the moribund economy and fulfilling election pledges to tackle corruption, provide free primary education and finalise the constitutional review, Mr Kibaki has the difficult task of holding his broad- based coalition together. The NARC contains many highly ambitious politicians and, although Mr Kibaki is expected to co-ordinate the talent at his disposal skilfully, he is old and in poor health. The main challenge may come from Raila Odinga who, though loyal to date, would like to become prime minister. The post does not currently exist but is a key element of the proposed new constitution, which also calls for a weaker president. The issue may generate a considerable dispute within the party. More rapid progress is expected on tackling corruption, a key demand of the IMF. We expect external financial support to resume by mid-year, which will help stimulate more rapid economic growth over the forecast period. Key changes from last month Political outlook • Kenya’s new government has reaffirmed its commitment to concluding the long-running constitutional review process, although this complex task may take longer than expected. The original pledge to deliver a new constitution within 100 days of taking office has now been rescheduled to end-2003. Economic policy outlook • The passage of anti-corruption legislation, mainly the Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill, is expected to become law before June. Economic forecast • Economic prospects remain unchanged from last month: assuming that donor support resumes in the second half of 2003 and the agricultural sector continues to perform strongly, economic growth is forecast to pick up to 2.5% in 2003 and 3.3% in 2004. April 2003 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2003 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0269-4239 Symbols in tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Patersons Dartford, Questor Trade Park, 151 Avery Way, Dartford, Kent DA1 1JS, UK. Kenya 1 Outlook for 2003-04 Political outlook Domestic politics Kenya’s new president, Mwai Kibaki, and his National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), following their victories in the December elections, are facing a challenging period as they struggle to meet their electoral promises, including political and economic reforms, over the forecast period. The new regime has inherited a run-down infrastructure, weak and corrupt institutions, a country riven with ethnic divisions, and one of Africa’s worst-performing economies. Furthermore, apart from fulfilling specific electoral pledges to tackle corruption, introduce free primary education and complete the constitutional review process, Mr Kibaki faces the task of holding his broad-based coalition together. Membership of NARC is diverse and cuts across traditional boundaries of ethnicity and ideology. It also includes many opportunists, including defectors from the former ruling party, the Kenya African National Union (KANU), who are seeking to prolong their own political careers. The main inspiration for party unity was the defeat of the old regime but, with this objective achieved, the forces acting on NARC will tend to promote fragmentation. The two most prominent and ambitious personalities are the minister of public works, Raila Odinga—who has switched party allegiance several times in the past decade—and the minister of education, George Saitoti—a defector from KANU. Mr Odinga took a leading role in the election campaign, and Mr Saitoti became de facto leader for a period in January when both the president and vice-president were incapacitated. However, it is doubtful whether either man has wide enough support to hold the party together. Although Mr Odinga has so far displayed no signs of disloyalty, he is thought to view the Ministry of Public Works—despite its large budget—as no more than a stepping-stone towards higher office. In particular, Mr Odinga is likely to seek to become prime minister. Although this post does not currently exist, the draft document prepared by the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission in 2002 calls for the creation of the post of prime minister with considerable executive powers. War on corruption At the beginning of March, as part of the its war on corruption, the government set up a special commission to reinvestigate the biggest corruption case in Kenya’s history, the so-called Goldenberg scandal of 1991. The scandal involved the pay-out of KSh68bn (US$1bn) for fictitious exports of gold and diamonds. At the centre of the affair was a local businessman, Kamlesh Pattni, who is accused of defrauding the government of KSh22bn. There can be no doubt that a satisfactory conclusion of the Goldenberg scandal, which also involves some members of Mr Kibaki’s government, will be a demonstration of the new government’s commitment to tackling corruption at the highest level. The collapse of the Nairobi-based Euro Bank and the investigations into it are expected to put pressure on several senior government officials, including ministers implicated in the scandal. The collapse led to the replacement of the governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, Nahashon Nyagah, by Andrew Mullei. Mr Nyagah resigned after the loss of KSh1.4bn (US$18m) of public funds Country Report April 2003 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2003 2 Kenya deposited in Euro Bank by a number of government institutions (Kenyatta National Hospital, the Postal Corporation, the Kenya Sugar Authority and the National Social Security Fund among others), which were subsequently lent to politically connected individuals. The Euro Bank scandal is expected to lead to the resignation (and prosecution) of members of the Kibaki cabinet that served in the Moi government. Constitutional review The government has reaffirmed its commitment to concluding the long-running constitutional review process, although this complex task may take longer than expected. The original pledge to produce a new constitution within 100 days of taking office has now been rescheduled to end-2003. The draft document published by the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission (CKRC) in September 2002 embodies many valuable principles but is flawed and incomplete. Furthermore, proposals for a new executive prime minister and a complementary reduction in the power of the presidency find little more favour with the new NARC leadership than they did with KANU. Mr Kibaki is popular and will be reluctant to weaken his authority so soon after assuming power. In addition, the process of selecting a prime minister would probably create tension and possible disunity within NARC ranks. At the same time, Kenya needs a new constitution and the government appears sincerely committed to devising one, although tactical considerations will inevitably slow the process. Even the legal status of the CKRC is in dispute. The minister of justice and constitutional affairs, Kiraitu Murungi, appears to take the view that its mandate expired at the turn of the year, although last October’s pronouncement by the attorney-general suggested that the commission could not be dissolved until a new constitution was adopted. Whatever the interpretation, parliament is expected to point the way forward in the coming months. A reduced commission is likely to emerge, with just 10 members compared with 27 currently. Although many of the principles that guided the draft—such as decentralisation, power sharing and greater accounta- bility—will be kept, the new draft could differ significantly from the earlier one. International relations The international community welcomed the smooth transition of power and Mr Kibaki’s promise of fundamental economic reforms and efforts to combat corruption. The new government’s efforts to date on both reforms and corruption is viewed with approval by the World Bank and the IMF, and the government has good prospects of normalising relations with them, especially the IMF.
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