Supplement of Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018-supplement © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Supplement of LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land – Part 1: Model description

Sibyll Schaphoff et al.

Correspondence to: Sibyll Schaphoff ([email protected])

The copyright of individual parts of the supplement might differ from the CC BY 4.0 License. S1 Supplementary informations to the evaluation of the LPJmL4 model

The here provided supplementary informations give more details to the evaluations given in Schaphoff et al.(under Revision). All sources and data used are described in detail there. Here we present ad- ditional figures for evaluating the LPJmL4 model on a plot scale for water and carbon fluxes Fig. S1 5 - S16. Here we use the standard input as described by Schaphoff et al.(under Revision, Section 2.1). Furthermore, we evaluate the model performance on eddy flux tower sites by using site specific me- teorological input data provided by http://fluxnet.fluxdata.org/data/la-thuile-dataset/(ORNL DAAC, 2011). Here the long time spin up of 5000 years was made with the input data described in Schaphoff et al.(under Revision), but an additional spin up of 30 years was conducted with the site specific 10 input data followed by the transient run given by the observation period. Comparisons are shown for some illustrative stations for net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in Fig. S17 and for evapotranspira- tion Fig. S18. Only 2 stations show a slightly better performance of LPJmL4 to NEE measurements and for evapotranspiration only 1 station, the others show a similar correlation as the simulations conducted with global climate input. 15 We use gauging station to evaluate the river discharge as an integrated measure (Fig. S19- S66). Fig. S68a compares the two evaluation data sets against each other. The comparison of the global data set from (Jung et al., 2011) to the local data (Luyssaert et al., 2007) shows that both data sets are in good agreement. The comparison of LPJmL4 against the global data set of Jung et al.(2011) on the local scale (Fig. S68b show a slightly worse match as the comparison against the local data 20 (see Fig. 4, main text). Fig. S68c compares LPJmL4 against the global data set from (Jung et al., 2011), but excluding outliers with very high GPP. That increases the match to these data to a NMSE of 0.69 and a R2 of 0.51. These comparisons show also that the comparisons on both scales are meaningful and can give a good indication how good the model can reproduce global as well as local biomass estimations by different methods. Fig. S67 and Fig. S69a give a comparison with the 25 global estimation of Carvalhais et al.(2014) for soil organic carbon resp. biomass. Additionally we have compared aboveground biomass in Fig. S69b with estimates by Liu et al.(2015). A spatial comparison of ecosystem respiration is shown in Fig. S70. Evapotranspiration comparison against MTE data (Jung et al., 2011) is shown in Fig. S71 and Fig. S72 shows a comparison of simulated fractional burnt area against remote sensing observations (GFED4: http://www.globalfiredata.org/ 30 and CCI Fire Version 4.1: http://cci.esa.int/data). Remote sensing data are also used for the evaluation of FAPAR (Fig. S73) and Albedo (Fig. S74). Sowing dates have been proved to be important to simulate crop variability (Fig. S75- S83), a comparison with MIRCA sowing dates we show in Fig. S84- S93. Table S1 gives an overview of estimates for regional field application efficiencies, showing that 35 LPJmL4 are in a similar range as other estimates.

1 Kaamanen_wetland 69.14 N / 27.3 E

NEE 100 r2 = 0.31, W = 0.67, NMSE = 3.1, NME = 1.6 50 LPJmL4 fluxes 0 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data gC/m2/month −100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 AK−Ivotuk 68.49 N / 155.75 W Sodankyla 67.36 N / 26.64 E

2 = = = = 2 = = = = 50 r 0.17, W 0.62, NMSE 2.2, NME 1.3 r 0.68, W 0.87, NMSE 0.76, NME 0.92 100 50 0 0 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −50 −100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Flakaliden 64.11 N / 19.46 E Hyytiala 61.85 N / 24.29 E

2 = = = = 100 2 = = = = 100 r 0.53, W 0.85, NMSE 0.54, NME 0.72 r 0.78, W 0.94, NMSE 0.23, NME 0.43 50 50 0 0 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100

−150 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1998 2000 2002 2004 Norunda 60.09 N / 17.48 E Griffin−Aberfeldy−Scotland 56.61 N / 3.8 W

r2 = 0.39, W = 0.74, NMSE = 0.89, NME = 0.91 r2 = 0.6, W = 0.68, NMSE = 1.1, NME = 1 50 50 −50 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −150 −150

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 −250 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 UCI−1930_burn_site 55.91 N / 98.52 W UCI−1964_burn_site 55.91 N / 98.38 W

r2 = 0.25, W = 0.65, NMSE = 1.2, NME = 0.87 r2 = 0.41, W = 0.79, NMSE = 0.67, NME = 0.73 100 50 50 0 0 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −50 −100 −100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005 East_Saltoun 55.91 N / 2.86 W UCI−1981_burn_site 55.86 N / 98.48 W

r2 = 0.6, W = 0.92, NMSE = 0.3, NME = 0.58 r2 = 0.38, W = 0.76, NMSE = 0.71, NME = 0.68 50 50 0 0 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −50 −100 −200 2004 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005

Figure S1. Comparison of NEE fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

2 Lille_Valby 55.68 N / 12.08 E

r2 = 0.3, W = 0.77, NMSE = 0.65, NME = 0.75 NEE 100

LPJmL4 fluxes 0 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data gC/m2/month −200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Soroe−LilleBogeskov 55.49 N / 11.65 E Loobos 52.17 N / 5.74 E

2 2 r = 0.81, W = 0.95, NMSE = 0.17, NME = 0.39 100 r = 0.79, W = 0.91, NMSE = 0.46, NME = 0.67 50 50 0 0 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −100 −200 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Horstermeer 52.03 N / 5.07 E Cabauw 51.97 N / 4.93 E 100 100 r2 = 0.67, W = 0.92, NMSE = 0.37, NME = 0.58 r2 = 0.36, W = 0.72, NMSE = 1.6, NME = 1.2 50 50 0 0 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100

−150 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Brasschaat 51.31 N / 4.52 E Mehrstedt 51.28 N / 10.66 E

r2 = 0.75, W = 0.92, NMSE = 0.29, NME = 0.48 r2 = 0.46, W = 0.84, NMSE = 1.2, NME = 1 100 50 50 0 0 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −150

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 Gebesee 51.1 N / 10.91 E Hainich 51.08 N / 10.45 E

2 2

r = 0.15, W = 0.69, NMSE = 0.73, NME = 0.74 100 r = 0.47, W = 0.73, NMSE = 0.63, NME = 0.65 100 0 0 −100 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −200

−300 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Tharandt−old_spruce 50.96 N / 13.57 E Lonzee 50.55 N / 4.74 E

r2 = 0.8, W = 0.83, NMSE = 0.72, NME = 0.83 r2 = 0.1, W = 0.54, NMSE = 0.79, NME = 0.8 50 0 0 −200 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −400

−200 1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Figure S2. Comparison of NEE fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

3 Wetzstein 50.45 N / 11.46 E

r2 = 0.66, W = 0.89, NMSE = 0.4, NME = 0.56

NEE 100

LPJmL4 fluxes 50 0 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data gC/m2/month −100

2002 2004 2006 2008 Vielsalm 50.31 N / 6 E Bily_Kriz−_Beskidy_Mountains 49.5 N / 18.54 E

r2 = 0.82, W = 0.87, NMSE = 0.49, NME = 0.65 r2 = 0.59, W = 0.78, NMSE = 0.76, NME = 0.8 50 50 0 0 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −150

−200 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Bily_Kriz−_grassland 49.5 N / 18.54 E Hesse_Forest−Sarrebourg 48.67 N / 7.06 E

100 r2 = 0.62, W = 0.83, NMSE = 0.74, NME = 0.77 r2 = 0.59, W = 0.78, NMSE = 0.49, NME = 0.58 50 100 0 0 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Neustift/Stubai 47.12 N / 11.32 E WI−Mature_red_pine 46.74 N / 91.17 W

r2 = 0.19, W = 0.68, NMSE = 1.2, NME = 0.93 r2 = 0.34, W = 0.44, NMSE = 6.3, NME = 2.7 50 50 −50 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −150 −150

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 −250 2003 2004 2005 2006 Bugacpuszta 46.69 N / 19.6 E Renon/Ritten 46.59 N / 11.43 E

r2 = 0.29, W = 0.77, NMSE = 0.96, NME = 0.91 r2 = 0.51, W = 0.72, NMSE = 1.2, NME = 1 100 50 50 0 0 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −150

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 WI−Lost_Creek 46.08 N / 89.98 W WI−Willow_Creek 45.81 N / 90.08 W

100 2 = = = = 2 = = = =

r 0.14, W 0.59, NMSE 1.2, NME 0.9 100 r 0.27, W 0.51, NMSE 0.91, NME 0.77 50 0 0 −100 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −300 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2000 2002 2004 2006

Figure S3. Comparison of NEE fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

4 La_Mandria 45.58 N / 7.15 E

NEE r2 = 0.4, W = 0.67, NMSE = 1.1, NME = 1 50

LPJmL4 fluxes 0 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data gC/m2/month −100

−200 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 MI−Univ._of_Mich._Biological_Station 45.56 N / 84.71 W Zerbolo−Parco_Ticino−_Canarazzo 45.2 N / 9.06 E

r2 = 0.09, W = 0.41, NMSE = 1.1, NME = 0.86 r2 = 0.84, W = 0.85, NMSE = 0.38, NME = 0.5 50 50 0 0 −100 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −200

−200 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 Le_Bray 44.72 N / 0.77 W Nonantola 44.69 N / 11.09 E

150 r2 = 0.38, W = 0.7, NMSE = 1.1, NME = 0.91 r2 = 0.55, W = 0.77, NMSE = 0.55, NME = 0.65 50 0 50 0 −100 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −200 −150 1998 2000 2002 2004 2001 2002 2003 2004 OR−Metolius−old_aged_ponderosa_pine 44.5 N / 121.62 W OR−Metolius−first_young_aged_pine 44.44 N / 121.57 W

2 = = = = 2 = = = = 100 r 0.24, W 0.41, NMSE 8.6, NME 3.2 100 r 0.21, W 0.6, NMSE 6.2, NME 2.7 50 50 0 0 −50 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month

−150 1997 1998 1999 2000 −150 2004 2005 2006 OR−Metolius−intermediate_aged_ponderosa_pine 44.45 N / 121.56 W OR−Metolius−second_young_aged_pine 44.32 N / 121.61 W

2 = = = = 2 = = = = 100 r 0.45, W 0.68, NMSE 2.1, NME 1.6 100 r 0.21, W 0.6, NMSE 6.2, NME 2.7 50 50 0 0 −50 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month

−150 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 −150 2004 2005 2006 NH−Bartlett_Experimental_Forest 44.06 N / 71.29 W Avignon 43.92 N / 4.88 E

r2 = 0.64, W = 0.79, NMSE = 0.48, NME = 0.54 r2 = 0.21, W = 0.53, NMSE = 0.79, NME = 0.87 100 50 0 0 −100 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −300 −200 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Figure S4. Comparison of NEE fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

5 Puechabon 43.74 N / 3.6 E

NEE 150 r2 = 0.19, W = 0.62, NMSE = 2.5, NME = 1.6

LPJmL4 fluxes 50 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data −50 gC/m2/month −150 2002 2004 2006 2008 San_Rossore 43.73 N / 10.28 E Aurade 43.55 N / 1.11 E

150 r2 = 0.16, W = 0.61, NMSE = 2.3, NME = 1.2 r2 = 0.22, W = 0.66, NMSE = 0.66, NME = 0.81 50 0 50 −50 −100 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −200 −150 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Lamasquere 43.49 N / 1.24 E Lecceto 43.3 N / 11.27 E 150 r2 = 0.059, W = 0.59, NMSE = 0.77, NME = 0.88 r2 = 0.21, W = 0.56, NMSE = 4.1, NME = 1.9 50 50 0 −50 −100 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −200 −150 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 MA−Little_Prospect_Hill 42.54 N / 72.19 W MA−Harvard_Forest_EMS_Tower 42.54 N / 72.17 W

100 r2 = 0.15, W = 0.51, NMSE = 0.93, NME = 0.77 r2 = 0.25, W = 0.49, NMSE = 0.92, NME = 0.83 100 0 0 −100 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −200

2003 2004 2005 −300 1995 2000 2005 Roccarespampani_1 42.41 N / 11.93 E Roccarespampani_2 42.39 N / 11.92 E

r2 = 0.03, W = 0.47, NMSE = 1.4, NME = 1.1 r2 = 8.6e−06, W = 0.4, NMSE = 1.5, NME = 1 100 50 0 0 −100 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −300 −200 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Vall_d'Alinya 42.15 N / 1.45 E Amplero 41.9 N / 13.61 E

r2 = 0.2, W = 0.65, NMSE = 3, NME = 1.8 r2 = 0.22, W = 0.75, NMSE = 0.73, NME = 0.89 100 100 50 0 0 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −100 −200 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Figure S5. Comparison of NEE fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

6 Castelporziano 41.71 N / 12.38 E

NEE r2 = 0.027, W = 0.41, NMSE = 6.2, NME = 2.2 100

LPJmL4 fluxes 50 0 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data gC/m2/month −100

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Borgo_Cioffi 40.52 N / 14.96 E El_Saler 39.35 N / 0.32 W

r2 = 0.29, W = 0.088, NMSE = 1.9, NME = 1.4 100 r2 = 0.045, W = 0.59, NMSE = 1.5, NME = 1.2 100 50 0 0 −100 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −300 2005 2006 2007 2008 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 CA−Blodgett_Forest 38.9 N / 120.63 W MO−Missouri_Ozark_Site 38.74 N / 92.2 W

r2 = 0.13, W = 0.3, NMSE = 4.2, NME = 1.8 r2 = 0.1, W = 0.62, NMSE = 0.94, NME = 0.86 50 50 0 0 −100 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −200 −200 2000 2002 2004 2006 2005 2006 2007 2008 Espirra 38.64 N / 8.6 W Mitra 38.54 N / 8 W

r2 = 0.049, W = 0.49, NMSE = 2, NME = 1.4 100 r2 = 0.042, W = 0.67, NMSE = 1.2, NME = 1.1 50 50 0 0 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −150 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 CA−Tonzi_Ranch 38.43 N / 120.97 W TN−Walker_Branch_Watershed 35.96 N / 84.29 W

r2 = 0.0093, W = 0.38, NMSE = 2.9, NME = 1.7 r2 = 0.085, W = 0.48, NMSE = 1.4, NME = 1.1 100 100 50 0 −100 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −300 −150 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 NC−NC_Loblolly_Plantation 35.8 N / 76.67 W AZ−Santa_Rita_Mesquite 31.82 N / 110.87 W

2 2 r = 0.49, W = 0.49, NMSE = 5.2, NME = 2.5 100 r = 0.051, W = 0.38, NMSE = 4.2, NME = 2.2 50 50 0 0 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −150 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007

Figure S6. Comparison of NEE fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

7 Yatir 31.34 N / 35.05 E

r2 = 0.49, W = 0.81, NMSE = 0.68, NME = 0.7

NEE 50

LPJmL4 fluxes 0 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data gC/m2/month −50 −100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 TX−Freeman_Ranch−Mesquite_Juniper 29.95 N / 98 W Santarem−Km67−Primary_Forest 2.86 S / 54.96 W

2 = = = = 2 = = = = 100 r 0.0091, W 0.4, NMSE 2.5, NME 1.6 r 0.44, W 0.091, NMSE 3.6, NME 2.2 50 100 0 50 0 −50 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −50

−150 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 Santarem−Km83−Logged_Forest 3.02 S / 54.97 W

r2 = 0.24, W = 0.11, NMSE = 2.6, NME = 1.8 100 50 0 gC/m2/month −100 2001 2002 2003 2004

Figure S7. Comparison of NEE fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

8 AK−Atqasuk 70.47 N / 157.41 W

Evapotranspiration 2 = = = =

100 r 0.3, W 0.63, NMSE 0.74, NME 0.7 LPJmL4 fluxes 50 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data mm/month 0

2000 2002 2004 2006 Kaamanen_wetland 69.14 N / 27.3 E AK−Ivotuk 68.49 N / 155.75 W 100 2 2 100 r = 0.84, W = 0.94, NMSE = 0.18, NME = 0.31 r = 0.25, W = 0.84, NMSE = 0.41, NME = 0.49 60 60 mm/month mm/month 20 20 −20 −20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sodankyla 67.36 N / 26.64 E Flakaliden 64.11 N / 19.46 E

r2 = 0.47, W = 0.81, NMSE = 0.73, NME = 0.6 r2 = 0.73, W = 0.87, NMSE = 0.68, NME = 0.66 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Hyytiala 61.85 N / 24.29 E Skyttorp 60.13 N / 17.84 E

r2 = 0.84, W = 0.96, NMSE = 0.13, NME = 0.3 r2 = 0.39, W = 0.75, NMSE = 1.5, NME = 1 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2004 2005 2006 Norunda 60.09 N / 17.48 E UCI−1998_burn_site 56.64 N / 99.95 W 150

r2 = 0.61, W = 0.89, NMSE = 0.36, NME = 0.48 r2 = 0.65, W = 0.92, NMSE = 0.35, NME = 0.44 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 Griffin−Aberfeldy−Scotland 56.61 N / 3.8 W UCI−1989_burn_site 55.92 N / 98.96 W 250

r2 = 0.55, W = 0.68, NMSE = 0.7, NME = 0.68 r2 = 0.61, W = 0.83, NMSE = 0.9, NME = 0.76 100 150 50 mm/month mm/month 50 0 0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Figure S8. Comparison of Evapotranspiration fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

9 UCI−1964_burn_site 55.91 N / 98.38 W

Evapotranspiration r2 = 0.72, W = 0.92, NMSE = 0.41, NME = 0.48 LPJmL4 fluxes 100

Euroflux and Ameriflux Data 50 mm/month 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 UCI−1930_burn_site 55.91 N / 98.52 W East_Saltoun 55.91 N / 2.86 W

r2 = 0.66, W = 0.9, NMSE = 0.48, NME = 0.49 r2 = 0.65, W = 0.81, NMSE = 1.1, NME = 0.84 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2004 2005 2006 UCI−1981_burn_site 55.86 N / 98.48 W Lille_Valby 55.68 N / 12.08 E 150 150 r2 = 0.75, W = 0.93, NMSE = 0.31, NME = 0.44 r2 = 0.7, W = 0.89, NMSE = 0.46, NME = 0.54 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Soroe−_LilleBogeskov 55.49 N / 11.65 E Loobos 52.17 N / 5.74 E 150 150 r2 = 0.82, W = 0.91, NMSE = 0.36, NME = 0.45 r2 = 0.78, W = 0.9, NMSE = 0.58, NME = 0.73 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Horstermeer 52.03 N / 5.07 E Cabauw 51.97 N / 4.93 E 150 2 2 150 r = 0.75, W = 0.93, NMSE = 0.24, NME = 0.4 r = 0.87, W = 0.96, NMSE = 0.16, NME = 0.32 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Brasschaat 51.31 N / 4.52 E Mehrstedt 51.28 N / 10.66 E 150 r2 = 0.77, W = 0.74, NMSE = 2.1, NME = 1.3 r2 = 0.78, W = 0.86, NMSE = 0.62, NME = 0.65 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007

Figure S9. Comparison of Evapotranspiration fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

10 Hampshire 51.12 N / 0.86 W

Evapotranspiration r2 = 0.86, W = 0.81, NMSE = 1.1, NME = 0.96 100 LPJmL4 fluxes

Euroflux and Ameriflux Data 50 mm/month 0

2004 2005 2006 Gebesee 51.1 N / 10.91 E Hainich 51.08 N / 10.45 E

r2 = 0.8, W = 0.87, NMSE = 0.58, NME = 0.66 r2 = 0.85, W = 0.83, NMSE = 1, NME = 0.89 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Tharandt−old_spruce 50.96 N / 13.57 E Lonzee 50.55 N / 4.74 E 150 150 r2 = 0.66, W = 0.86, NMSE = 0.74, NME = 0.65 r2 = 0.84, W = 0.92, NMSE = 0.32, NME = 0.48 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Wetzstein 50.45 N / 11.46 E Vielsalm 50.31 N / 6 E 150 150 r2 = 0.84, W = 0.89, NMSE = 0.54, NME = 0.66 r2 = 0.87, W = 0.79, NMSE = 1.6, NME = 1.2 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2002 2004 2006 2008 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Bily_Kriz−_Beskidy_Mountains 49.5 N / 18.54 E Bily_Kriz−_grassland 49.5 N / 18.54 E 150 150 r2 = 0.5, W = 0.56, NMSE = 5.4, NME = 2.1 r2 = 0.59, W = 0.49, NMSE = 8.2, NME = 2.8 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Hesse_Forest−Sarrebourg 48.67 N / 7.06 E MT−Fort_Peck 48.31 N / 105.1 W 150 200 r2 = 0.83, W = 0.84, NMSE = 0.8, NME = 0.85 r2 = 0.56, W = 0.84, NMSE = 0.44, NME = 0.5 150 100 100 50 mm/month mm/month 50 0 0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2000 2002 2004 2006

Figure S10. Comparison of Evapotranspiration fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

11 Laegeren 47.48 N / 8.37 E

Evapotranspiration 150 r2 = 0.86, W = 0.96, NMSE = 0.14, NME = 0.33

LPJmL4 fluxes 100 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data 50 mm/month 0

2007 2008 2009 Oensingen1_grass 47.29 N / 7.73 E Oensingen2_crop 47.29 N / 7.73 E

150 2 2 r = 0.92, W = 0.99, NMSE = 0.05, NME = 0.2 150 r = 0.85, W = 0.96, NMSE = 0.16, NME = 0.32 100 100 50 mm/month mm/month 50 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Neustift/Stubai 47.12 N / 11.32 E WI−Mature_red_pine 46.74 N / 91.17 W 150 150 r2 = 0.92, W = 0.97, NMSE = 0.11, NME = 0.3 r2 = 0.49, W = 0.76, NMSE = 0.92, NME = 0.92 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 Bugacpuszta 46.69 N / 19.6 E Renon/Ritten 46.59 N / 11.43 E

150 2 = = = = 2 = = = =

r 0.78, W 0.92, NMSE 0.3, NME 0.48 150 r 0.71, W 0.9, NMSE 0.32, NME 0.5 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 WI−Lost_Creek 46.08 N / 89.98 W WI−Willow_Creek 45.81 N / 90.08 W

2 2 150 r = 0.79, W = 0.9, NMSE = 0.45, NME = 0.56 150 r = 0.76, W = 0.86, NMSE = 0.65, NME = 0.69 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2000 2002 2004 2006 La_Mandria 45.58 N / 7.15 E MI−Univ._of_Mich._Biological_Station 45.56 N / 84.71 W 150 r2 = 0.77, W = 0.92, NMSE = 0.26, NME = 0.42 r2 = 0.72, W = 0.74, NMSE = 0.6, NME = 0.58 150 100 100 50 mm/month mm/month 50 0 0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2000 2002 2004 2006

Figure S11. Comparison of Evapotranspiration fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

12 Zerbolo−Parco_Ticino−_Canarazzo 45.2 N / 9.06 E

Evapotranspiration 150 r2 = 0.72, W = 0.9, NMSE = 0.41, NME = 0.66

LPJmL4 fluxes 100 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data 50 mm/month 0

2002 2003 2004 Le_Bray 44.72 N / 0.77 W Nonantola 44.69 N / 11.09 E 150 r2 = 0.66, W = 0.88, NMSE = 0.43, NME = 0.57 150 r2 = 0.83, W = 0.87, NMSE = 0.57, NME = 0.76 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2001 2002 2003 2004 OR−Metolius−intermediate_aged_ponderosa_pine 44.45 N / 121.56 W OR−Metolius−first_young_aged_pine 44.44 N / 121.57 W 150 150 r2 = 0.36, W = 0.76, NMSE = 0.89, NME = 0.78 r2 = 0.62, W = 0.8, NMSE = 1.1, NME = 1.1 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 OR−Metolius−second_young_aged_pine 44.32 N / 121.61 W NH−Bartlett_Experimental_Forest 44.06 N / 71.29 W 150

r2 = 0.62, W = 0.8, NMSE = 1.1, NME = 1.1 150 r2 = 0.66, W = 0.79, NMSE = 1.6, NME = 1.2 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 2007 Avignon 43.92 N / 4.88 E Puechabon 43.74 N / 3.6 E

r2 = 0.26, W = 0.65, NMSE = 0.7, NME = 0.8 150 r2 = 0.57, W = 0.76, NMSE = 1.5, NME = 1.1 150 100 100 50 mm/month mm/month 50 0 0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2004 2006 2008 San_Rossore 43.73 N / 10.28 E Aurade 43.55 N / 1.11 E 150

r2 = 0.42, W = 0.76, NMSE = 0.92, NME = 0.88 150 r2 = 0.7, W = 0.86, NMSE = 0.5, NME = 0.66 100 100 50 mm/month mm/month 50 0 0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008

Figure S12. Comparison of Evapotranspiration fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

13 Lamasquere 43.49 N / 1.24 E

Evapotranspiration 150 r2 = 0.82, W = 0.87, NMSE = 0.46, NME = 0.6 LPJmL4 fluxes 100 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data mm/month 50 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 Lecceto 43.3 N / 11.27 E MA−Harvard_Forest_EMS_Tower 42.54 N / 72.17 W 150

r2 = 0.57, W = 0.83, NMSE = 0.55, NME = 0.65 150 r2 = 0.72, W = 0.82, NMSE = 0.77, NME = 0.82 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2006 2007 2008 1995 2000 2005 Island_of_Pianosa 42.58 N / 10.08 E MA−Little_Prospect_Hill 42.54 N / 72.19 W

r2 = 0.031, W = 0.49, NMSE = 2.2, NME = 1.6 150 r2 = 0.64, W = 0.8, NMSE = 0.71, NME = 0.74 100 100 60 50 mm/month mm/month 20 0 −20 2002 2003 2004 2003 2004 2005 Roccarespampani_1 42.41 N / 11.93 E Roccarespampani_2 42.39 N / 11.92 E 150

r2 = 0.39, W = 0.71, NMSE = 0.95, NME = 0.92 150 r2 = 0.34, W = 0.62, NMSE = 0.95, NME = 0.89 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Vall_d'Alinya 42.15 N / 1.45 E Amplero 41.9 N / 13.61 E 200 150 r2 = 0.67, W = 0.82, NMSE = 0.97, NME = 0.8 r2 = 0.54, W = 0.81, NMSE = 0.51, NME = 0.63 150 100 100 50 mm/month mm/month 50 0 0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Castelporziano 41.71 N / 12.38 E NE−Mead−rainfed_maize−soybean_rotation_site 41.18 N / 96.44 W 150 200

r2 = 0.23, W = 0.66, NMSE = 1.6, NME = 1.1 r2 = 0.73, W = 0.82, NMSE = 0.48, NME = 0.58 150 100 100 50 mm/month mm/month 50 0 0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Figure S13. Comparison of Evapotranspiration fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

14 NE−Mead−irrigated_continuous_maize_site 41.17 N / 96.48 W

Evapotranspiration 200 r2 = 0.66, W = 0.74, NMSE = 0.65, NME = 0.68 LPJmL4 fluxes

Euroflux and Ameriflux Data 100 mm/month 50 0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NE−Mead−irrigated_maize−soybean_rotation_site 41.16 N / 96.47 W Borgo_Cioffi 40.52 N / 14.96 E 200 r2 = 0.69, W = 0.76, NMSE = 0.61, NME = 0.65 150 r2 = 0.19, W = 0.56, NMSE = 1.6, NME = 1.2 150 100 100 mm/month mm/month 50 50 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2005 2006 2007 2008 CO−Niwot_Ridge_Forest 40.03 N / 105.55 W IL−Bondville 40.01 N / 88.29 W 150 200 r2 = 0.57, W = 0.67, NMSE = 1.5, NME = 1.2 r2 = 0.76, W = 0.89, NMSE = 0.5, NME = 0.57 150 100 100 50 mm/month mm/month 50 0 0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 NJ−Fort_Dix 39.97 N / 74.43 W El_Saler 39.35 N / 0.32 W

2 = = = = 150 2 = = = = 150 r 0.79, W 0.82, NMSE 0.7, NME 0.89 r 0.053, W 0.53, NMSE 1.9, NME 1.3 100 100 50 mm/month mm/month 50 0 0

2006 2007 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 CA−Blodgett_Forest 38.9 N / 120.63 W MO−Missouri_Ozark_Site 38.74 N / 92.2 W 200

200 r2 = 0.035, W = 0.39, NMSE = 1.7, NME = 1.2 r2 = 0.7, W = 0.84, NMSE = 0.41, NME = 0.58 150 150 100 100 mm/month mm/month 50 50 0 0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2005 2006 2007 2008 Espirra 38.64 N / 8.6 W Mitra_IV_Tojal 38.48 N / 8.02 W 150 150 r2 = 0.3, W = 0.68, NMSE = 1.1, NME = 0.93 r2 = 0.5, W = 0.88, NMSE = 0.41, NME = 0.6 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008

Figure S14. Comparison of Evapotranspiration fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

15 CA−Tonzi_Ranch 38.43 N / 120.97 W

Evapotranspiration 150 r2 = 0.54, W = 0.87, NMSE = 0.4, NME = 0.61

LPJmL4 fluxes 100 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data 50 mm/month 0

2002 2004 2006 2008 OK−ARM_Southern_Great_Plains_site 36.61 N / 97.49 W TN−Walker_Branch_Watershed 35.96 N / 84.29 W 200 150 r2 = 0.68, W = 0.79, NMSE = 1.2, NME = 0.96 r2 = 0.69, W = 0.88, NMSE = 0.44, NME = 0.57 150 100 100 50 mm/month mm/month 50 0 0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 NC−NC_Clearcut 35.81 N / 76.71 W NC−NC_Loblolly_Plantation 35.8 N / 76.67 W 200 2 = = = = 2 = = = =

150 r 0.66, W 0.92, NMSE 0.31, NME 0.46 r 0.84, W 0.94, NMSE 0.21, NME 0.43 150 100 100 mm/month mm/month 50 50 0 0

2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 CA−Sky_Oaks−Old_Stand 33.37 N / 116.62 W AZ−Santa_Rita_Mesquite 31.82 N / 110.87 W 150

150 r2 = 0.21, W = 0.53, NMSE = 1.4, NME = 1.2 r2 = 0.57, W = 0.92, NMSE = 0.35, NME = 0.61 100 100 50 50 mm/month mm/month 0 0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2004 2005 2006 2007 Yatir 31.34 N / 35.05 E TX−Freeman_Ranch−Mesquite_Juniper 29.95 N / 98 W

2 150 2 100 r = 0.33, W = 0.7, NMSE = 1.6, NME = 1.4 r = 0.34, W = 0.68, NMSE = 0.91, NME = 0.87 100 60 50 mm/month mm/month 20 0 −20 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 FL−Slashpine−Mize−clearcut−3yr 29.76 N / 82.24 W FL−Slashpine−Donaldson 29.75 N / 82.16 W 200 200

r2 = 0.55, W = 0.83, NMSE = 0.49, NME = 0.63 r2 = 0.57, W = 0.86, NMSE = 0.49, NME = 0.62 150 150 100 100 mm/month mm/month 50 50 0 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Figure S15. Comparison of Evapotranspiration fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

16 FL−Slashpine−Austin_Cary 29.74 N / 82.22 W

Evapotranspiration 2 = = = = 150 r 0.49, W 0.57, NMSE 3.6, NME 2 LPJmL4 fluxes 100 Euroflux and Ameriflux Data mm/month 50 0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Santarem−Km67−Primary_Forest 2.86 S / 54.96 W Santarem−Km83−Logged_Forest 3.02 S / 54.97 W 150 r2 = 0.19, W = 0.12, NMSE = 11, NME = 2.8 r2 = 0.056, W = 0.24, NMSE = 13, NME = 3.3 150 100 100 50 mm/month mm/month 50 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2001 2002 2003 2004

Figure S16. Comparison of Evapotranspiration fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements.

17 NEE

LPJmL4 fluxes Euroflux and Ameriflux Data

Brasschaat 51.31 N / 4.52 E Santarem−Km67−Primary_Forest 2.86 S / 54.96 W

r2 = 0.87, W = 0.95, NMSE = 0.17, NME = 0.36 r2 = 0.034, W = 0.39, NMSE = 4, NME = 2.3 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −50 0 50 100 −50 0 50 100 150 200 250

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 Hyytiala 61.85 N / 24.29 E Castelporziano 41.71 N / 12.38 E

r2 = 0.73, W = 0.8, NMSE = 0.61, NME = 0.71 r2 = 0.077, W = 0.39, NMSE = 7.2, NME = 2.6 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −100 −50 0 50 100 −150 −50 0 50 100 150

1998 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Norunda 60.09 N / 17.48 E MA−Harvard_Forest_EMS_Tower 42.54 N / 72.17 W

r2 = 0.33, W = 0.72, NMSE = 0.62, NME = 0.7 r2 = 0.49, W = 0.56, NMSE = 0.79, NME = 0.73 gC/m2/month gC/m2/month −150 −100 −50 0 50 100

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 −300 −200 −1001995 0 100 2000 2005

Figure S17. Comparison of NEE fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements driven by site specific meteorological data.

18 Evapotranspiration

LPJmL4 fluxes Euroflux and Ameriflux Data

Brasschaat 51.31 N / 4.52 E Santarem−Km67−Primary_Forest 2.86 S / 54.96 W

r2 = 0.81, W = 0.81, NMSE = 1.2, NME = 1 r2 = 0.007, W = 0.28, NMSE = 10, NME = 3.4 50 100 mm/month mm/month 0 0 50 100 150

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 Hyytiala 61.85 N / 24.29 E Castelporziano 41.71 N / 12.38 E

r2 = 0.82, W = 0.96, NMSE = 0.18, NME = 0.35 r2 = 0.27, W = 0.71, NMSE = 1.1, NME = 0.98 50 100 mm/month mm/month 0 0 50 100

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Norunda 60.09 N / 17.48 E MA−Harvard_Forest_EMS_Tower 42.54 N / 72.17 W

r2 = 0.5, W = 0.82, NMSE = 0.53, NME = 0.53 r2 = 0.8, W = 0.88, NMSE = 0.4, NME = 0.62 mm/month mm/month 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1995 2000 2005

Figure S18. Comparison of Evapotranspiration fluxes with EDDY-flux measurements driven by site specific meteorological data.

19 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Allakh−Yun' At Allakh NME: 0.52 W : 0.89 R2: 0.71 72.37 N / 126.8 E

200 Lena NMSE: 0.40 R2: 0.67 200 NME: 0.48 NMSE: 0.36 h t 150 150 n o m 3 100 100 m k 50 50 0 0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Uchur At Chulbu NME: 0.59 W : 0.77 R2: 0.57 71.97 N / 114.08 E Lena NMSE: 0.65 R2: 0.39 NME: 0.60 NMSE: 0.45 10 10 h t n 8 8 o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

40 Maya At Chabda NME: 0.43 W : 0.91 40 R2: 0.85 71.85 N / 123.65 E Lena NMSE: 0.28 R2: 0.74 NME: 0.43 NMSE: 0.18 30 30 h t n o m 20 20 3 m k 10 10 0 0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Udoma At Kurung−Targuyak NME: 0.49 W : 0.90 R2: 0.79 70.68 N / 127.39 E 250 Lena NMSE: 0.33 R2: 0.74 250 NME: 0.48 NMSE: 0.30 h t n o 150 150 m 3 m k 50 50 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Malaya Kuonapka At Dzhalinda NME: 0.34 W : 0.94 R2: 0.95 70.13 N / 113.97 E Lena NMSE: 0.28 R2: 0.78 NME: 0.24 3 3 NMSE: 0.08 h t n o 2 2 m 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Tobol At Yalotorovsk NME: 1.07 W : 0.66 R2: 0.32 70.11 N / 28.08 E Ob NMSE: 1.39 R2: 0.22 NME: 1.14 3.0 3.0 NMSE: 1.48 h t n o 2.0 2.0 m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1920 1940 1960 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S19. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [1].

20 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Amga At Amga NME: 0.60 W : 0.79 R2: 0.44 69.77 N / 135.23 E Lena NMSE: 0.69 2 NME: 0.54 15 R : 0.41 15 NMSE: 0.65 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Amga At Terut NME: 0.58 W : 0.80 R2: 0.48 69.57 N / 147.53 E 30 Lena NMSE: 0.67 R2: 0.43 30 NME: 0.55 NMSE: 0.60 h t n 20 20 o m 3 m k 10 10 5 5 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 1.5 1.5 Amga At Buyaga NME: 0.72 W : 0.75 R2: 0.45 69.38 N / 132.12 E Lena NMSE: 1.14 R2: 0.35 NME: 0.71 NMSE: 0.94 h t 1.0 1.0 n o m 3 m 0.5 0.5 k 0.0 0.0

1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

80 Kolyma At Ust'−Srednekan NME: 0.53 W : 0.90 80 R2: 0.73 68.73 N / 158.72 E Anadyr Kolyma NMSE: 0.39 R2: 0.68 NME: 0.49 NMSE: 0.34 60 60 h t n o m 40 40 3 m k 20 20 0 0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

NME: 0.69 2 4 Bytantay At Asar W : 0.76 4 R : 0.45 68.62 N / 134.12 E Lena NMSE: 0.94 R2: 0.36 NME: 0.69 NMSE: 0.87 3 3 h t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

NME: 0.53 2 20 Namana At Myakinda W : 0.85 20 R : 0.63 68.62 N / 118.33 E Lena NMSE: 0.48 R2: 0.55 NME: 0.58 NMSE: 0.39 h 15 15 t n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S20. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [2].

21 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Kolyma At Orotuk NME: 0.47 W : 0.88 R2: 0.78 68.15 N / 161.16 E 5 Anadyr Kolyma NMSE: 0.41 R2: 0.65 5 NME: 0.38 NMSE: 0.29 4 4 h t n o 3 3 m 3 m 2 2 k 1 1 0 0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 15 15 Aldan At Tommot NME: 0.62 W : 0.71 R2: 0.46 68.02 N / 135.27 E Lena NMSE: 0.75 R2: 0.35 NME: 0.62 NMSE: 0.66 h 10 10 t n o m 3 m 5 5 k 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 100 100 Kolyma At Duscania NME: 0.53 W : 0.88 R2: 0.70 67.47 N / 153.69 E Anadyr Kolyma NMSE: 0.45 R2: 0.61 NME: 0.49 80 80 NMSE: 0.37 h t n 60 60 o m 3 40 40 m k 20 20 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2 140 Akhtaranda A 0.5 km nizhe Batur NME: 1.18 W : 0.62 140 R : 0.24 67.45 N / 133.74 W Lena NMSE: 2.34 R2: 0.22 NME: 1.15 NMSE: 2.35 h t 100 100 n o m 3 60 60 m k 20 20 0 0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Biryusa At Phedino NME: 0.92 W : 0.71 R2: 0.32 67.43 N / 86.48 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.86 R2: 0.32 NME: 0.94

250 250 NMSE: 0.87 h t n o m 150 150 3 m k 50 50 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

7 PORCUPINE RIVER NEAR INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARYNME: 0.55 W : 0.86 7 R2: 0.66 67.42 N / 140.89 W 2 6 Yukon NMSE: 0.62 R : 0.59 6 NME: 0.56 NMSE: 0.61 5 5 h t n o 4 4 m 3 3 3 m k 2 2 1 1 0 0

1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S21. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [3].

22 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

2.5 Kureika At Ozernaya NME: 0.42 W : 0.90 2.5 R2: 0.92 67.13 N / 156.58 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.43 R2: 0.70 NME: 0.31

2.0 2.0 NMSE: 0.18 h t n o 1.5 1.5 m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 2.5 2.5 Aldan At Suon−Tiit NME: 0.69 W : 0.67 R2: 0.24 67.12 N / 132.13 E Lena NMSE: 0.88 R2: 0.25 NME: 0.66 2.0 2.0 NMSE: 0.89 h t n 1.5 1.5 o m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Sinyaya At Tongulakh NME: 0.85 W : 0.63 R2: 0.20 67.1 N / 133.91 E Lena NMSE: 1.72 R2: 0.21 NME: 0.78

1.5 1.5 NMSE: 1.90 h t n o 1.0 1.0 m 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

6 KOBUK R NR KIANA AK NME: 0.72 W : 0.79 6 R2: 0.71 66.97 N / 160.13 W Yukon NMSE: 0.69 R2: 0.58 NME: 0.73 5 5 NMSE: 0.71 h t 4 4 n o m 3 3 3 m 2 2 k 1 1 0 0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Aldan At Ust'−Mil' NME: 0.54 W : 0.82 R2: 0.68 66.67 N / 137.42 E Lena NMSE: 0.64 R2: 0.48 NME: 0.49 NMSE: 0.44 1.5 1.5 h t n o m 1.0 1.0 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Sukhona At Kam−Uga NME: 2.01 W : 0.24 R2: 0.07 66.66 N / 32.83 E 5 North European Russia NMSE: 5.36 R2: 0.03 5 NME: 2.34 NMSE: 4.86 4 4 h t n o 3 3 m 3 m 2 2 k 1 1 0 0

1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S22. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [4].

23 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Bol'shoy Anuy At Konstantinovo NME: 1.74 W : 0.38 2

4 4 R : 0.09 66.65 N / 31.35 E Anadyr Kolyma NMSE: 4.34 R2: 0.02 NME: 2.60 NMSE: 7.28 h 3 3 t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Vasyugan At Naunak NME: 1.49 W : 0.30 R2: 0.05 66.63 N / 66.6 E Ob NMSE: 6.00 R2: 0.04 NME: 1.51 NMSE: 6.01 300 300 h t n o m 200 200 3 m k 100 100 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

20 Susola At Pervomaisky NME: 0.74 W : 0.74 20 R2: 0.36 66.55 N / 59.42 E North European Russia NMSE: 0.81 R2: 0.34 NME: 0.77 NMSE: 0.77 15 15 h t n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Bokhalcha At 5.4 km from ust'ya NME: 0.59 W : 0.76 2 3.0 3.0 R : 0.62 66.38 N / 173.33 E Anadyr Kolyma NMSE: 0.69 R2: 0.37 NME: 0.55 NMSE: 0.40 h t n 2.0 2.0 o m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 25 25 Pechora At Troitsko−Pechorsk NME: 1.15 W : 0.36 R2: 0.02 66.16 N / 58.33 E North European Russia NMSE: 2.01 R2: 0.00 NME: 1.14 20 20 NMSE: 1.63 h t n 15 15 o m 3 10 10 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

KOYUKUK R AT HUGHES AK NME: 0.77 W : 0.72 R2: 0.34 66.04 N / 154.26 W 8 Yukon NMSE: 1.03 R2: 0.32 8 NME: 0.81 NMSE: 1.12 h t 6 6 n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S23. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [5].

24 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

NME: 1.41 2 4 Poluy At Poluy W : 0.43 4 R : 0.18 66.03 N / 68.73 E Ob NMSE: 3.62 R2: 0.08 NME: 1.46 NMSE: 3.64 h 3 3 t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Poluy At Poluy NME: 1.17 W : 0.65 R2: 0.56 66 N / 68.5 E Ob NMSE: 2.26 R2: 0.30 NME: 1.11 NMSE: 1.63 h 2.0 2.0 t n o m 3 m 1.0 1.0 k 0.0 0.0

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 3.0 3.0 Peza At Igumnovo NME: 0.87 W : 0.72 R2: 0.61 65.82 N / 45.1 E North European Russia NMSE: 1.08 R2: 0.29 NME: 0.78 NMSE: 0.50 h t 2.0 2.0 n o m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Nadym At Nadym NME: 1.45 W : 0.42 R2: 0.12 65.62 N / 72.67 E Ob NMSE: 3.44 R2: 0.06 NME: 1.50 NMSE: 3.89 10 10 h t n 8 8 o m 6 6 3 m k 4 4 2 2 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 6 6 Vaga At Philyaevskaya NME: 0.85 W : 0.69 R2: 0.57 65.47 N / 51.37 E 2

5 North European Russia NMSE: 1.31 R : 0.25 5 NME: 0.68 NMSE: 0.59 h t 4 4 n o m 3 3 3 m 2 2 k 1 1 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Vel'mo At Vel'mo NME: 0.64 W : 0.79 R2: 0.58 65.45 N / 172.97 E 20 Yenisei NMSE: 0.74 R2: 0.41 20 NME: 0.55 NMSE: 0.48 h t 15 15 n o m 3 10 10 m k 5 5 0 0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S24. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [6].

25 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data 70 70 Pinega At Kulogory NME: 0.87 W : 0.69 R2: 0.38 65.42 N / 52.28 E North European Russia NMSE: 1.13 R2: 0.26 NME: 0.84 NMSE: 0.86 50 50 h t n o m 3 30 30 m k 10 10 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

1.2 LESSER SLAVE RIVER AT HIGHWAY NO. 2A NME: 1.44 W : 0.42 1.2 R2: 0.04 65.41 N / 114 W Mackenzie NMSE: 2.26 R2: 0.01 NME: 1.51 NMSE: 2.64 h t n 0.8 0.8 o m 3 m k 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Chona At Tuoy−Khaya NME: 1.04 W : 0.49 R2: 0.03 65.22 N / 128.55 W Lena NMSE: 1.82 R2: 0.03 NME: 1.06 1.5 1.5 NMSE: 1.87 h t n o 1.0 1.0 m 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kolyma At Kolymskoye NME: 1.01 W : 0.64 R2: 0.24 65.1 N / 33.15 E 3.0 Anadyr Kolyma NMSE: 1.43 R2: 0.18 3.0 NME: 1.04 NMSE: 1.25 h t n o 2.0 2.0 m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Pinega At Zasur'e NME: 1.07 W : 0.64 2 15 15 R : 0.38 65 N / 45.62 E North European Russia NMSE: 1.67 R2: 0.20 NME: 0.94 NMSE: 0.89 h t n 10 10 o m 3 m 5 5 k 0 0

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kem At Putkinskaya GES NME: 2.23 W : 0.35 R2: 0.03 64.93 N / 34.48 E 5 North European Russia NMSE: 7.47 R2: 0.03 5 NME: 2.37 NMSE: 6.77 4 4 h t n o 3 3 m 3 m 2 2 k 1 1 0 0

1970 1975 1980 1985 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S25. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [7].

26 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data 12 12 Podkamennaya Tunguska At Akt−Yerny Ostrov NME: 0.46 W : 0.90 R2: 0.87 64.83 N / 168.75 E 2 10 Yenisei NMSE: 0.33 R : 0.73 10 NME: 0.46 NMSE: 0.24 h 8 8 t n o 6 6 m 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

YUKON R AT EAGLE AK NME: 1.24 W : 0.55 R2: 0.13 64.78 N / 141.2 W 40 Yukon NMSE: 2.26 R2: 0.13 40 NME: 1.23 NMSE: 2.34 h t 30 30 n o m 20 20 3 m k 10 10 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

YUKON R AT RUBY AK NME: 0.85 W : 0.79 R2: 0.44 64.74 N / 155.49 W Yukon NMSE: 0.96 R2: 0.45 NME: 0.81

50 50 NMSE: 0.99 h t n o m 30 30 3 m k 10 10 0 0

1960 1965 1970 1975 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Pinega At Kulogory NME: 1.14 W : 0.56 R2: 0.21 64.72 N / 43.48 E

8 North European Russia NMSE: 1.98 R2: 0.12 8 NME: 1.15 NMSE: 1.36 h t 6 6 n o m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

FINLAY RIVER ABOVE AKIE RIVER NME: 1.48 W : 0.32 R2: 0.06 64.67 N / 65.63 E Mackenzie NMSE: 5.53 R2: 0.05 NME: 1.52 300 300 NMSE: 6.09 h t n o 200 200 m 3 m k 100 100 0 0

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Vuchegda At Malaya Kuzhba NME: 1.15 W : 0.50 2 5 5 R : 0.13 64.58 N / 46.17 E North European Russia NMSE: 2.29 R2: 0.07 NME: 1.07 NMSE: 1.59 4 4 h t n o 3 3 m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S26. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [8].

27 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Chara At Tokko NME: 0.93 W : 0.47 2

4 4 R : 0.08 64.58 N / 120.03 E Lena NMSE: 1.84 R2: 0.08 NME: 1.07 NMSE: 2.24 h 3 3 t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 10 10 TANANA R AT NENANA AK NME: 1.18 W : 0.55 R2: 0.09 64.56 N / 149.09 W NMSE: 1.82 2 NME: 1.18 8 Yukon R : 0.09 8 NMSE: 1.72 h t n 6 6 o m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 7 7 Vim' At Ust'−Zada (Polovniky) NME: 1.23 W : 0.63 R2: 0.35 64.53 N / 53.33 E 6 North European Russia NMSE: 2.27 R2: 0.24 6 NME: 1.09 NMSE: 1.25 5 5 h t n o 4 4 m 3 3 3 m k 2 2 1 1 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Aldan At Verkhoyanskiy Perevoz NME: 0.61 W : 0.81 R2: 0.48 64.53 N / 143.12 E Lena NMSE: 0.72 R2: 0.46 NME: 0.60

10 10 NMSE: 0.66 h t 8 8 n o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Nera At Nerskaya Truda NME: 0.53 W : 0.87 R2: 0.65 64.43 N / 144.37 E Lena NMSE: 0.54 R2: 0.58 NME: 0.52 3 3 NMSE: 0.44 h t n o 2 2 m 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Usa At Makarikha NME: 2.25 W : 0.32 2 4 4 R : 0.00 64.33 N / 34.33 E North European Russia NMSE: 6.90 R2: 0.00 NME: 2.58 NMSE: 7.26 h 3 3 t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1915 1920 1925 1930 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S27. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [9].

28 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data 5 5 Luza At Krasavino NME: 1.10 W : 0.63 R2: 0.40 64.17 N / 48.83 E NMSE: 1.86 2 NME: 0.90 4 North European Russia R : 0.20 4 NMSE: 0.95 h t n 3 3 o m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Pinega At Severny NME: 1.18 W : 0.57 R2: 0.16 64.13 N / 41.92 E 2 80 North European Russia NMSE: 2.26 R : 0.14 80 NME: 1.15 NMSE: 1.86 h t 60 60 n o m 3 40 40 m k 20 20 0 0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Aldan At Okhotskiy Perevoz NME: 0.74 W : 0.74 R2: 0.35 64.05 N / 141.88 E NMSE: 1.07 2 NME: 0.74 6 Lena R : 0.34 6 NMSE: 1.01 h t n o 4 4 m 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 40 40 Olekma At Kudu−Kel' NME: 0.80 W : 0.70 R2: 0.31 63.95 N / 124.83 E Lena NMSE: 1.34 R2: 0.31 NME: 0.79 NMSE: 1.51 30 30 h t n o m 20 20 3 m k 10 10 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

1.4 Re−Ora At Mitrophanovskaya (Mitrophanovo) NME: 2.26 W : 0.35 1.4 R2: 0.14 63.83 N / 34.33 E North European Russia NMSE: 4.17 R2: 0.02 NME: 2.92 NMSE: 6.14 h t 1.0 1.0 n o m 3 0.6 0.6 m k 0.2 0.2

1915 1920 1925 1930 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2 20 Tom At Novokuznetsk NME: 1.05 W : 0.58 20 R : 0.28 63.65 N / 62.1 E Ob NMSE: 2.57 R2: 0.19 NME: 1.10 NMSE: 2.15 h 15 15 t n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S28. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [10].

29 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

5 Yug At Gavrino NME: 1.23 W : 0.50 5 R2: 0.09 63.58 N / 45.6 E North European Russia NMSE: 2.41 R2: 0.08 NME: 1.30

4 4 NMSE: 1.95 h t n o 3 3 m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Indigirka At Vorontsovo NME: 1.62 W : 0.33 R2: 0.07 63.51 N / 116 W Lena NMSE: 2.88 R2: 0.01 NME: 1.90 0.5 0.5 NMSE: 3.73 h t n o m 0.3 0.3 3 m k 0.1 0.1

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

STEWART RIVER ABOVE FRASER FALLS NME: 0.96 W : 0.54 2 6 6 R : 0.11 63.48 N / 135.13 W Yukon NMSE: 1.52 R2: 0.07 NME: 0.97

5 5 NMSE: 1.46 h t n 4 4 o m 3 3 3 m k 2 2 1 1 0 0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 8 8 STEWART RIVER AT STEWART CROSSING NME: 1.16 W : 0.46 R2: 0.04 63.38 N / 136.68 W Yukon NMSE: 1.86 R2: 0.04 NME: 1.18 NMSE: 2.00 6 6 h t n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

3.0 TANANA R NR TANACROSS AK NME: 1.15 W : 0.52 3.0 R2: 0.07 63.38 N / 143.74 W Yukon NMSE: 1.73 R2: 0.07 NME: 1.14 NMSE: 1.65 h t n 2.0 2.0 o m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Sartang At Bala NME: 0.60 W : 0.84 R2: 0.81 63.35 N / 112.1 E 2.0 Lena NMSE: 1.01 R2: 0.64 2.0 NME: 0.60 NMSE: 0.91 h t 1.5 1.5 n o m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S29. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [11].

30 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Kalakan At Kalakan NME: 0.63 W : 0.83 R2: 0.51 63.32 N / 132.02 E 80 Lena NMSE: 0.65 R2: 0.51 80 NME: 0.64 NMSE: 0.68 h t 60 60 n o m 3 40 40 m k 20 20 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

10 STEWART RIVER AT THE MOUTH NME: 1.18 W : 0.52 10 R2: 0.11 63.28 N / 139.24 W Yukon NMSE: 2.07 R2: 0.09 NME: 1.21 8 8 NMSE: 2.15 h t n 6 6 o m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kovda At Knyazhegubskaya GES NME: 1.18 W : 0.54 R2: 0.13 63.27 N / 42.03 E North European Russia NMSE: 2.36 R2: 0.12 NME: 1.15

60 60 NMSE: 2.13 h t n o 40 40 m 3 m k 20 20 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 25 25 Tom' At Tomsk N M E : 1.13 skW : 0.53 R2: 0.25 63.18 N / 64.4 E Ob NMSE: 2.97 R2: 0.16 NME: 1.15 20 20 NMSE: 2.41 h t n 15 15 o m 3 10 10 m k 5 5 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Peza At Igumnovo NME: 0.95 W : 0.66 2 10 10 R : 0.30 63.16 N / 56 E North European Russia NMSE: 1.37 R2: 0.20 NME: 0.82 NMSE: 0.98 8 8 h t n o 6 6 m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

0.6 Lena At Taura NME: 1.62 W : 0.34 0.6 R2: 0.02 63.1 N / 116.97 W Lena NMSE: 4.20 R2: 0.01 NME: 2.19 NMSE: 9.54 h t n 0.4 0.4 o m 3 m k 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S30. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [12].

31 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

2 3.0 Yug At Podosinovets NME: 1.29 W : 0.40 3.0 R : 0.03 63 N / 46.78 E North European Russia NMSE: 2.48 R2: 0.02 NME: 1.46 NMSE: 2.46 h t n 2.0 2.0 o m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

MACMILLAN RIVER NEAR THE MOUTH NME: 1.05 W : 0.60 R2: 0.19 62.89 N / 135.51 W 2.0 Yukon NMSE: 1.61 R2: 0.14 2.0 NME: 1.08 NMSE: 1.66 h t 1.5 1.5 n o m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 10 10 PELLY RIVER AT PELLY CROSSING NME: 1.25 W : 0.52 R2: 0.14 62.82 N / 136.58 W NMSE: 2.51 2 NME: 1.29

8 Yukon R : 0.11 8 NMSE: 2.60 h t n 6 6 o m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 14 14 Vuchegda At Syktyvkar NME: 1.09 W : 0.60 R2: 0.26 62.72 N / 56.22 E North European Russia NMSE: 2.05 R2: 0.17 NME: 0.96 NMSE: 1.36 10 10 h t n 8 8 o m 6 6 3 m k 4 4 2 2 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 2.5 2.5 Kulu At Kulu NME: 0.45 W : 0.89 R2: 0.86 62.66 N / 146.5 E Anadyr Kolyma NMSE: 0.44 R2: 0.66 NME: 0.40 2.0 2.0 NMSE: 0.25 h t n 1.5 1.5 o m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 8 8 Iluch At Priural'sk NME: 1.00 W : 0.62 R2: 0.20 62.66 N / 56.16 E North European Russia NMSE: 1.23 R2: 0.16 NME: 1.10 NMSE: 1.10 6 6 h t n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S31. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [13].

32 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

0.8 Lena At Ust'−Kut (Zakut'e) NME: 6.18 W : 0.02 0.8 R2: 0.01 62.66 N / 114.25 W Lena NMSE: 291.40 R2: 0.00 NME: 24.02 NMSE: 2558.33 0.6 0.6 h t n o m 0.4 0.4 3 m k 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1945 1950 1955 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kirenga At Kluchy NME: 1.06 W : 0.64 R2: 0.63 62.65 N / 122.9 W Lena NMSE: 2.72 R2: 0.32 NME: 0.94 2.0 2.0 NMSE: 1.46 h t n 1.5 1.5 o m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Vuchegda At Phedyakovo NME: 1.13 W : 0.53 R2: 0.26 62.63 N / 57.47 E 4 North European Russia NMSE: 2.14 R2: 0.10 4 NME: 0.96 NMSE: 1.28 h t 3 3 n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kovda (Yova) At Yovskaya GES NME: 1.54 W : 0.31 R2: 0.01 62.57 N / 39.83 E North European Russia NMSE: 4.22 R2: 0.01 NME: 1.75

10 10 NMSE: 4.70 h t 8 8 n o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

NME: 0.76 2 6 Olenek At Sukhona W : 0.80 6 R : 0.82 62.5 N / 111.18 E Lena NMSE: 1.56 R2: 0.64 NME: 0.73

5 5 NMSE: 1.28 h t n 4 4 o m 3 3 3 m k 2 2 1 1 0 0

1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Severnaya Dvina At Zvoz NME: 1.14 W : 0.64 R2: 0.30 62.48 N / 50.78 E NMSE: 1.82 2 NME: 1.06 6 North European Russia R : 0.21 6 NMSE: 1.20 h t n o 4 4 m 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S32. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [14].

33 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

NME: 0.53 2 20 Yenisey At 7 km nizhe Bystraya W : 0.90 20 R : 0.76 62.43 N / 152.3 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.39 R2: 0.68 NME: 0.50 NMSE: 0.35 h 15 15 t n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 5 5 PELLY RIVER BELOW VANGORDA CREEK NME: 1.07 W : 0.57 R2: 0.16 62.22 N / 133.37 W Yukon NMSE: 1.98 R2: 0.12 NME: 1.11 4 4 NMSE: 1.93 h t n 3 3 o m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 10 10 Bol'shoy Patom At Patoma NME: 1.00 W : 0.72 R2: 0.70 62.22 N / 134.13 E Lena NMSE: 2.63 R2: 0.59 NME: 1.03 8 8 NMSE: 3.23 h t 6 6 n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kovda (Kuma) At Kumskaya GES NME: 1.58 W : 0.28 2 62.15 N / 39.37 E

8 8 R : 0.00 North European Russia NMSE: 4.31 R2: 0.00 NME: 1.82 NMSE: 4.54 h 6 6 t n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2 25 Olekma At Srednyaya Olekma NME: 0.84 W : 0.72 25 R : 0.43 62.15 N / 117.65 E Lena NMSE: 1.42 R2: 0.36 NME: 0.75 NMSE: 1.78 20 20 h t n o 15 15 m 3 10 10 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

8 Kolyma At Orotuk NME: 0.51 W : 0.89 8 R2: 0.73 62.12 N / 148.47 E Anadyr Kolyma NMSE: 0.52 R2: 0.66 NME: 0.50 NMSE: 0.44 6 6 h t n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S33. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [15].

34 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data 4 4 Bokhalcha At 5.4 km from ust'ya NME: 0.62 W : 0.75 R2: 0.54 62.1 N / 150.67 E Anadyr Kolyma NMSE: 0.64 R2: 0.49 NME: 0.63

3 3 NMSE: 0.65 h t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

YUKON RIVER AT CARMACKS NME: 1.91 W : 0.26 R2: 0.01 62.09 N / 136.27 W 15 Yukon NMSE: 5.40 R2: 0.01 15 NME: 1.92 NMSE: 5.42 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

4 Berezovka At Berezovka NME: 0.60 W : 0.81 4 R2: 0.92 62.06 N / 160.48 E Anadyr Kolyma NMSE: 0.49 R2: 0.72 NME: 0.64 NMSE: 0.41 3 3 h t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Vitim At Romanovka NME: 1.09 W : 0.72 R2: 0.94 61.92 N / 124.55 E 1.5 Lena NMSE: 2.14 R2: 0.49 1.5 NME: 1.06 NMSE: 3.18 h t n o 1.0 1.0 m 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kulu At Kulu NME: 0.60 W : 0.82 R2: 0.64 61.9 N / 147.42 E Anadyr Kolyma NMSE: 0.55 R2: 0.56 NME: 0.60 NMSE: 0.53 2.0 2.0 h t n o m 3 m 1.0 1.0 k 0.0 0.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

KUSKOKWIM R AT CROOKED CREEK AK NME: 1.18 W : 0.62 R2: 0.29 61.87 N / 158.1 W Yukon NMSE: 1.69 R2: 0.18 NME: 1.10

15 15 NMSE: 1.44 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S34. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [16].

35 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Vitim At Spitsino NME: 0.68 W : 0.79 R2: 0.44 61.87 N / 135.5 E Lena NMSE: 0.76 R2: 0.43 NME: 0.69 60 60 NMSE: 0.80 h t n o 40 40 m 3 m k 20 20 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Niva At Niva GES 1 NME: 0.77 W : 0.76 R2: 0.42 61.83 N / 129.6 E 2 80 North European Russia NMSE: 0.79 R : 0.42 80 NME: 0.78 NMSE: 0.83 h t 60 60 n o m 3 40 40 m k 20 20 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

3.0 BUFFALO RIVER AT HIGHWAY NO. 5 NME: 1.42 W : 0.39 3.0 R2: 0.08 61.8 N / 74.05 E Mackenzie NMSE: 3.73 R2: 0.04 NME: 1.47 NMSE: 3.35 h t 2.0 2.0 n o m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1960 1970 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 8 8 Nyzhny Vig (Soroka) At Vigostrov NME: 1.39 W : 0.41 R2: 0.04 61.77 N / 53.67 E North European Russia NMSE: 3.05 R2: 0.04 NME: 1.39 NMSE: 2.70 6 6 h t n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Lena At Makarovo NME: 1.22 W : 0.55 R2: 0.10 61.74 N / 121.22 W 40 Lena NMSE: 2.00 R2: 0.10 40 NME: 1.24 NMSE: 2.11 h t 30 30 n o m 20 20 3 m k 10 10 0 0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 20 20 Nyzhny Vig (Soroka) At Belomorskaya NME: 1.42 W : 0.38 R2: 0.04 61.72 N / 50.82 E North European Russia NMSE: 3.42 R2: 0.03 NME: 1.41 NMSE: 3.09 15 15 h t n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S35. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [17].

36 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Yenisey At Poilovo NME: 0.49 W : 0.91 R2: 0.78 61.65 N / 148.83 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.42 R2: 0.72 NME: 0.48 10 10 NMSE: 0.41 h t 8 8 n o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

50 Yenisey At Aa−khol' NME: 1.13 W : 0.68 50 R2: 0.52 61.5 N / 91.16 E Yenisei NMSE: 2.54 R2: 0.37 NME: 1.13

40 40 NMSE: 2.50 h t n o 30 30 m 3 20 20 m k 10 10 0 0

1940 1945 1950 1955 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

8 YUKON RIVER ABOVE FRANK CREEK NME: 2.40 W : 0.18 8 R2: 0.09 61.43 N / 135.18 W Yukon NMSE: 9.31 R2: 0.05 NME: 2.49 NMSE: 8.33 6 6 h t n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 30 30 Onega At Cherepovskaya NME: 1.36 W : 0.45 R2: 0.07 61.43 N / 47.65 E NMSE: 3.11 2 NME: 1.31 25 North European Russia R : 0.06 25 NMSE: 2.74 h t 20 20 n o m 15 15 3 m 10 10 k 5 5 0 0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Onega At Kazakovo NME: 1.65 W : 0.28 R2: 0.02 61.12 N / 50.3 E 3.0 North European Russia NMSE: 4.30 R2: 0.01 3.0 NME: 1.70 NMSE: 4.49 h t n o 2.0 2.0 m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

5 Sukhona At Tot'ma NME: 1.25 W : 0.45 5 R2: 0.12 61.12 N / 42.18 E North European Russia NMSE: 3.15 R2: 0.09 NME: 1.33

4 4 NMSE: 3.67 h t n o 3 3 m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S36. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [18].

37 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Yenisey At Krutoy Povorot NME: 1.21 W : 0.67 R2: 0.57 61.01 N / 93.25 E 2 NME: 1.19 3 Yenisei NMSE: 2.58 R : 0.35 3 NMSE: 1.36 h t n o 2 2 m 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2.0 Namana At Myakinda NME: 0.85 W : 0.79 2.0 R2: 0.91 60.9 N / 120.8 E Lena NMSE: 1.62 R2: 0.61 NME: 0.81 NMSE: 1.59 1.5 1.5 h t n o m 1.0 1.0 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Nuya At Kurum NME: 0.92 W : 0.77 R2: 0.79 60.9 N / 131.98 E 8 Lena NMSE: 2.21 R2: 0.67 8 NME: 0.96 NMSE: 2.51 h t 6 6 n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Belomorkanal At Matkozh NME: 1.44 W : 0.28 R2: 0.01 60.72 N / 47.6 E 4 North European Russia NMSE: 3.34 R2: 0.01 4 NME: 1.51 NMSE: 3.60 h t 3 3 n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

4 YUKON RIVER AT WHITEHORSE NME: 1.89 W : 0.28 4 R2: 0.03 60.71 N / 135.04 W Yukon NMSE: 5.10 R2: 0.02 NME: 1.84 NMSE: 5.11 3 3 h t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Yana At Dzhangky NME: 1.53 W : 0.29 2 2.0 2.0 R : 0.02 60.71 N / 114.9 W Lena NMSE: 6.30 R2: 0.01 NME: 1.58 NMSE: 4.83 h 1.5 1.5 t n o m 1.0 1.0 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S37. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [19].

38 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Allakh−Yun' At Allakh NME: 0.56 W : 0.80 R2: 0.56 60.68 N / 135.03 E 3.0 3.0 Lena NMSE: 0.57 R2: 0.52 NME: 0.54 NMSE: 0.57 h t n 2.0 2.0 o m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

10 Belomorkanal At Palakorgskaya GES NME: 1.29 W : 0.40 10 R2: 0.05 60.57 N / 46.45 E North European Russia NMSE: 2.76 R2: 0.05 NME: 1.32 8 8 NMSE: 3.12 h t n 6 6 o m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Bol'shoy Yugan At Ugut NME: 1.56 W : 0.32 R2: 0.04 60.5 N / 74.02 E 5 Ob NMSE: 5.45 R2: 0.02 5 NME: 1.26 NMSE: 4.24 4 4 h t n o 3 3 m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2 80 Tuloma At GES Nizhne−Tulomskaya NME: 0.86 W : 0.68 80 R : 0.28 60.48 N / 120.7 E North European Russia NMSE: 1.07 R2: 0.28 NME: 0.86 NMSE: 1.13 h 60 60 t n o m 40 40 3 m k 20 20 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

LITTLE SMOKY RIVER NEAR GUY NME: 1.40 W : 0.36 R2: 0.01 60.47 N / 129.11 W Mackenzie NMSE: 2.88 R2: 0.01 NME: 1.44 3.0 3.0 NMSE: 2.91 h t n o 2.0 2.0 m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

3.0 Biya At Biysk NME: 1.96 W : 0.24 3.0 R2: 0.01 60.32 N / 64.22 E Ob NMSE: 8.74 R2: 0.01 NME: 1.77 NMSE: 9.21 h t n 2.0 2.0 o m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S38. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [20].

39 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

6 Nuya At Kurum NME: 0.77 W : 0.81 6 R2: 0.87 60.27 N / 114.73 E Lena NMSE: 1.47 R2: 0.70 NME: 0.73 5 5 NMSE: 1.25 h t 4 4 n o m 3 3 3 m 2 2 k 1 1 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

4 Kem At Putkinskaya GES NME: 1.18 W : 0.54 4 R2: 0.23 60.27 N / 47.07 E North European Russia NMSE: 2.52 R2: 0.14 NME: 1.18 NMSE: 2.77 3 3 h t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kuta At Ruchey NME: 0.52 W : 0.89 R2: 0.89 60.27 N / 114.73 E 2.0 Lena NMSE: 0.62 R2: 0.75 2.0 NME: 0.48 NMSE: 0.47 h t 1.5 1.5 n o m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

NME: 1.52 2 4 SNARE RIVER AT BIGSPRUCE LAKE W : 0.30 4 R : 0.01 60.27 N / 73.82 E Mackenzie NMSE: 5.17 R2: 0.01 NME: 1.37 NMSE: 4.71 3 3 h t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 6 6 Bol'shoy Patom At Patoma NME: 0.91 W : 0.58 R2: 0.27 60.17 N / 116.8 E NMSE: 1.16 2 NME: 0.86 5 Lena R : 0.20 5 NMSE: 1.15 h t 4 4 n o m 3 3 3 m 2 2 k 1 1 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

ATHABASCA RIVER BELOW MCMURRAY NME: 1.70 W : 0.30 R2: 0.03 60.05 N / 128.9 W Mackenzie NMSE: 5.14 R2: 0.02 NME: 1.77 NMSE: 5.06 10 10 h t n 8 8 o m 6 6 3 m k 4 4 2 2 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S39. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [21].

40 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Vashka At Reshel'skaya NME: 1.45 W : 0.42 R2: 0.06 60 N / 43.16 E North European Russia NMSE: 4.79 R2: 0.09 NME: 1.58

10 10 NMSE: 5.41 h t 8 8 n o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1900 1910 1920 1930 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

10 Vitim At Ust'−Zaza NME: 0.81 W : 0.58 10 R2: 0.18 60 N / 119.88 E Lena NMSE: 1.10 R2: 0.17 NME: 0.80 8 8 NMSE: 1.13 h t n 6 6 o m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kem At Shomba NME: 1.47 W : 0.43 R2: 0.13 59.97 N / 42.77 E North European Russia NMSE: 4.83 R2: 0.10 NME: 1.61 10 10 NMSE: 5.59 h t 8 8 n o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Anabar At Saskulakh NME: 1.48 W : 0.38 R2: 0.06 59.85 N / 128.59 W 2 4 Lena NMSE: 3.58 R : 0.04 4 NME: 1.60 NMSE: 3.64 h t 3 3 n o m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

NME: 1.38 2 3.0 Lena At Tabaga W : 0.69 3.0 R : 0.88 59.83 N / 112.4 E Lena NMSE: 4.51 R2: 0.75 NME: 1.32 NMSE: 4.28 h t n 2.0 2.0 o m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Peleduy At Sol'zavod NME: 0.56 W : 0.87 R2: 0.69 59.78 N / 134.75 E 2 30 Lena NMSE: 0.63 R : 0.64 30 NME: 0.53 NMSE: 0.60 h t n o 20 20 m 3 m k 10 10 5 5 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S40. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [22].

41 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Patso−Ioky At Borisoglebskaya GES NME: 0.97 W : 0.62 R2: 0.18 59.73 N / 113.17 E 50 North European Russia NMSE: 1.33 R2: 0.17 50 NME: 0.95 NMSE: 1.37 h 40 40 t n o 30 30 m 3 m 20 20 k 10 10 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Lena At Kusur NME: 1.59 W : 0.34 2

20 20 R : 0.02 59.7 N / 127.22 W Lena NMSE: 4.02 R2: 0.02 NME: 1.65 NMSE: 3.61 h 15 15 t n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

5 Amga At Buyaga NME: 0.84 W : 0.80 5 R2: 0.84 59.67 N / 127.05 E Lena NMSE: 1.58 R2: 0.68 NME: 0.83

4 4 NMSE: 1.42 h t n 3 3 o m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Vitim At Kalakan NME: 0.74 W : 0.72 R2: 0.33 59.63 N / 133.03 E 2 40 Lena NMSE: 1.03 R : 0.31 40 NME: 0.76 NMSE: 1.10 h t 30 30 n o m 3 20 20 m k 10 10 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Irtish At Ekaterininskoe NME: 1.19 W : 0.53 2 2.0 2.0 R : 0.14 59.5 N / 60.66 E Ob NMSE: 2.53 R2: 0.14 NME: 1.20 NMSE: 3.29 h 1.5 1.5 t n o m 1.0 1.0 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kirenga At Shorokhovo NME: 0.62 W : 0.79 R2: 0.49 59.37 N / 121.32 E Lena NMSE: 0.68 2 NME: 0.61

15 R : 0.45 15 NMSE: 0.71 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S41. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [23].

42 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

5 KVICHAK R AT IGIUGIG AK NME: 2.93 W : 0.28 5 R2: 0.08 59.32 N / 155.9 W Yukon NMSE: 6.62 R2: 0.01 NME: 3.24

4 4 NMSE: 9.45 h t n o 3 3 m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1970 1975 1980 1985 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 8 8 Nuya At Komaka NME: 0.57 W : 0.82 R2: 0.50 59.23 N / 135.28 E Lena NMSE: 0.57 R2: 0.51 NME: 0.56 NMSE: 0.63 6 6 h t n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Oka At Saram NME: 0.69 W : 0.81 R2: 0.64 59.13 N / 99.38 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.76 2 NME: 0.55

2.0 R : 0.44 2.0 NMSE: 0.38 h t n 1.5 1.5 o m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 40 40 Indigirka At Yurty NME: 1.59 W : 0.46 R2: 0.07 59.11 N / 112.42 W Lena NMSE: 3.24 R2: 0.08 NME: 1.69 NMSE: 4.38 30 30 h t n o m 20 20 3 m k 10 10 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Olenek At 7.5 km down of Buur's mouth NME: 1.36 W : 0.36 2 2.5 2.5 R : 0.00 59.09 N / 127.53 W Lena NMSE: 2.68 R2: 0.00 NME: 1.40 NMSE: 2.18 2.0 2.0 h t n o 1.5 1.5 m 3 m 1.0 1.0 k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 12 12 Aldan At Tommot NME: 0.69 W : 0.82 R2: 0.63 58.97 N / 126.27 E 2 10 Lena NMSE: 0.81 R : 0.52 10 NME: 0.66 NMSE: 0.71 h 8 8 t n o 6 6 m 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S42. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [24].

43 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

10 HAY RIVER NEAR HAY RIVER NME: 1.64 W : 0.26 10 R2: 0.01 58.95 N / 80.12 E Mackenzie NMSE: 6.94 R2: 0.01 NME: 1.54 8 8 NMSE: 6.50 h t n 6 6 o m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1960 1965 1970 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Lena At Stolb NME: 1.11 W : 0.42 R2: 0.03 58.67 N / 122.63 W 2 3.0 Lena NMSE: 2.46 R : 0.04 3.0 NME: 1.16 NMSE: 3.79 h t n o 2.0 2.0 m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Tsipa At Z.Uzhu NME: 0.65 W : 0.76 2 58.65 N / 127.05 E 10 10 R : 0.44 Lena NMSE: 0.88 R2: 0.37 NME: 0.65 NMSE: 0.85 8 8 h t n o 6 6 m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

1.5 Indigirka At Indigirskiy NME: 1.33 W : 0.39 1.5 R2: 0.05 58.59 N / 118.33 W Lena NMSE: 4.09 R2: 0.07 NME: 1.42 NMSE: 7.46 h t n 1.0 1.0 o m 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Ishim At Ges Sergeevka NME: 1.30 W : 0.36 R2: 0.02 58.52 N / 64.53 E Ob NMSE: 3.98 R2: 0.03 NME: 1.30 NMSE: 5.09 10 10 h t n 8 8 o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Khilok At Khailastuy NME: 1.79 W : 0.66 R2: 0.72 58.38 N / 97.45 E Yenisei NMSE: 2.34 R2: 0.44 NME: 1.85

30 30 NMSE: 2.82 h t n o m 20 20 3 m k 10 10 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S43. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [25].

44 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

50 Angara At Irkutskaya GES NME: 1.68 W : 0.70 50 R2: 0.52 58.35 N / 93.55 E Yenisei NMSE: 1.95 R2: 0.39 NME: 1.60

40 40 NMSE: 1.73 h t n o 30 30 m 3 20 20 m k 10 10 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Timpton At Ust'−Baralas NME: 0.96 W : 0.45 R2: 0.04 58.32 N / 112.87 E Lena NMSE: 1.58 2 NME: 0.98

150 R : 0.04 150 NMSE: 1.63 h t n o 100 100 m 3 m k 50 50 0 0

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 80 80 CHINCHAGA RIVER NEAR HIGH LEVEL NME: 1.19 W : 0.55 R2: 0.16 58.3 N / 82.88 E Mackenzie NMSE: 2.23 R2: 0.14 NME: 1.13 NMSE: 2.05 60 60 h t n o m 40 40 3 m k 20 20 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

5 Lena At Solyanka NME: 1.12 W : 0.46 5 R2: 0.01 58.07 N / 112.88 E Lena NMSE: 1.73 R2: 0.02 NME: 1.13

4 4 NMSE: 1.82 h t n 3 3 o m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Vitim At Khulugli NME: 0.82 W : 0.77 R2: 0.54 58.07 N / 123.72 E 4 4 Lena NMSE: 1.09 R2: 0.40 NME: 0.80 NMSE: 0.92 h 3 3 t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

6 Bukhtarma At Lesnaya Pristan' NME: 1.56 W : 0.30 6 R2: 0.04 58.07 N / 63.7 E Ob NMSE: 5.99 R2: 0.04 NME: 1.85 5 5 NMSE: 8.26 h t 4 4 n o m 3 3 3 m 2 2 k 1 1 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S44. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [26].

45 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Belaya At Mal'ta NME: 2.94 W : 0.34 R2: 0.10 57.97 N / 102.7 E Yenisei NMSE: 5.89 R2: 0.00 NME: 6.77 NMSE: 28.16 10 10 h t n 8 8 o m 6 6 3 m k 4 4 2 2 0 0

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

ATTAWAPISKAT RIVER BELOW ATTAWAPISKATNME LAKE: 0.86 W : 0.64 R2: 0.21 57.88 N / 67.58 W 2 8 South and East Hudson Bay NMSE: 1.13 R : 0.19 8 NME: 0.95 NMSE: 1.10 h t 6 6 n o m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 5 5 Bytantay At Asar NME: 1.45 W : 0.35 R2: 0.04 57.87 N / 115.38 W Lena NMSE: 5.38 R2: 0.07 NME: 1.70 4 4 NMSE: 11.64 h t n 3 3 o m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Oka At Ukhtuy NME: 1.01 W : 0.61 R2: 0.16 57.82 N / 94.32 E Yenisei NMSE: 1.95 R2: 0.16 NME: 0.93 15 15 NMSE: 1.77 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Patso−Ioky At GES Kaitakosky NME: 1.03 W : 0.69 R2: 0.35 57.78 N / 108.32 E North European Russia NMSE: 1.31 R2: 0.26 NME: 0.98 15 15 NMSE: 1.10 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Mama At Lugovskoy NME: 0.77 W : 0.68 R2: 0.29 57.77 N / 130.9 E

20 Lena NMSE: 1.25 R2: 0.25 20 NME: 0.79 NMSE: 1.34 h t 15 15 n o m 3 10 10 m k 5 5 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S45. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [27].

46 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data 10 10 Kirenga At Shorokhovo NME: 1.05 W : 0.53 R2: 0.11 57.63 N / 108.12 E Lena NMSE: 1.42 R2: 0.08 NME: 1.00 8 8 NMSE: 1.40 h t n 6 6 o m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Tung At Ugulyatsy NME: 0.97 W : 0.75 R2: 0.57 57.48 N / 107.85 E 8 Lena NMSE: 1.12 R2: 0.36 8 NME: 0.90 NMSE: 0.65 h t 6 6 n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1975 1980 1985 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 70 70 Timpton At Ust'−Timpton NME: 0.93 W : 0.45 R2: 0.08 57.47 N / 115.35 E Lena NMSE: 1.38 R2: 0.07 NME: 0.95 NMSE: 1.43 h 50 50 t n o m 3 30 30 m k 10 10 0 0

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

WINISK RIVER AT KANUCHUAN RAPIDS NME: 1.05 W : 0.60 R2: 0.18 57.42 N / 69.25 W 30 South and East Hudson Bay NMSE: 1.70 R2: 0.17 30 NME: 1.05 NMSE: 1.68 h t n o 20 20 m 3 m k 10 10 5 5 0 0

1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Uda At Ukar NME: 0.97 W : 0.65 R2: 0.18 57.37 N / 96.63 E Yenisei NMSE: 1.45 R2: 0.19 NME: 0.96 6 6 NMSE: 1.46 h t n o 4 4 m 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

25 FORT NELSON RIVER ABOVE MUSKWA RIVERNME: 1.43 W : 0.46 25 R2: 0.15 57.25 N / 86.13 E Mackenzie NMSE: 4.71 R2: 0.14 NME: 1.35

20 20 NMSE: 4.17 h t n o 15 15 m 3 10 10 m k 5 5 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S46. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [28].

47 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Om' At Kalachinsk NME: 1.59 W : 0.26 R2: 0.03 57.17 N / 65.53 E 2 NME: 1.88 15 Ob NMSE: 4.53 R : 0.02 15 NMSE: 8.57 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Nera At Nerskaya Truda NME: 1.15 W : 0.45 R2: 0.02 57.12 N / 125.25 W 2 3.0 Lena NMSE: 1.64 R : 0.01 3.0 NME: 1.13 NMSE: 1.60 h t n o 2.0 2.0 m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kalar At Sredniy Kalar NME: 0.55 W : 0.81 R2: 0.69 56.95 N / 125.45 E Lena NMSE: 0.58 R2: 0.59 NME: 0.51 NMSE: 0.55 2.0 2.0 h t n o m 3 m 1.0 1.0 k 0.0 0.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

8 Vilyuy At Khatyrik−Khomo NME: 1.02 W : 0.75 8 R2: 0.53 56.92 N / 106.42 E Lena NMSE: 1.30 R2: 0.36 NME: 0.91 NMSE: 0.73 6 6 h t n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Severnaya Sosva At Sosva NME: 1.04 W : 0.62 R2: 0.35 56.88 N / 86.26 E Ob NMSE: 1.93 R2: 0.22 NME: 0.86 NMSE: 1.24 h 2.0 2.0 t n o m 3 m 1.0 1.0 k 0.0 0.0

1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2 1.5 Niva At Niva GES 3 NME: 1.12 W : 0.50 1.5 R : 0.09 56.85 N / 105.07 E North European Russia NMSE: 1.53 R2: 0.06 NME: 1.07 NMSE: 1.24 h t n 1.0 1.0 o m 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S47. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [29].

48 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data 5 5 Vilyuy At Suntar NME: 1.06 W : 0.69 R2: 0.44 56.8 N / 105.8 E Lena NMSE: 1.37 2 NME: 1.02 4 R : 0.25 4 NMSE: 0.86 h t n 3 3 o m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1975 1980 1985 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Adycha At Yurduk−Kumakh NME: 1.33 W : 0.38 R2: 0.05 56.78 N / 111.4 W 20 Lena NMSE: 5.09 R2: 0.07 20 NME: 1.38 NMSE: 5.59 h t 15 15 n o m 3 10 10 m k 5 5 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 15 15 STIKINE R NR WRANGELL AK NME: 1.14 W : 0.47 R2: 0.00 56.7 N / 132.13 W Yukon NMSE: 1.83 R2: 0.00 NME: 1.13 NMSE: 1.77 h t 10 10 n o m 3 m 5 5 k 0 0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

NME: 0.81 2 20 LIARD RIVER ABOVE KECHIKA RIVER W : 0.68 20 R : 0.27 56.5 N / 84.92 E Mackenzie NMSE: 0.93 R2: 0.27 NME: 0.83 NMSE: 0.96 h 15 15 t n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Biryusa At Shitkino NME: 1.08 W : 0.57 R2: 0.09 56.42 N / 93.95 E 4 Yenisei NMSE: 1.47 R2: 0.11 4 NME: 1.17 NMSE: 1.67 h t 3 3 n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Taseeva At Mashukovka NME: 0.65 W : 0.84 R2: 0.72 56.37 N / 98.37 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.54 R2: 0.59 NME: 0.60 3 3 NMSE: 0.45 h t n o 2 2 m 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S48. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [30].

49 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Khilok At Maly Kunaley NME: 2.74 W : 0.41 R2: 0.11 56.28 N / 101.73 E Yenisei NMSE: 5.55 R2: 0.09 NME: 9.79 NMSE: 66.83 10 10 h t n 8 8 o m 6 6 3 m k 4 4 2 2 0 0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Lena At Kachug NME: 0.57 W : 0.79 R2: 0.43 56.22 N / 115.73 E 2 15 Lena NMSE: 0.57 R : 0.47 15 NME: 0.60 NMSE: 0.64 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Malaya Kuonapka At Dzhalinda NME: 1.12 W : 0.52 2 56.17 N / 107.2 E

4 4 R : 0.08 Lena NMSE: 1.51 R2: 0.07 NME: 1.05 NMSE: 1.49 h 3 3 t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Vitim At Nerpo NME: 2.07 W : 0.39 R2: 0.01 56.12 N / 120.05 W 15 15 Lena NMSE: 2.50 R2: 0.01 NME: 4.69 NMSE: 17.65 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Biryusa At Biryusinsk NME: 1.08 W : 0.64 R2: 0.28 55.98 N / 92.8 E 40 Yenisei NMSE: 1.24 R2: 0.23 40 NME: 0.99 NMSE: 1.37 h t 30 30 n o m 3 20 20 m k 10 10 0 0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Biryusa At Biryusinsk NME: 0.79 W : 0.76 R2: 0.45 55.97 N / 97.78 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.80 R2: 0.41 NME: 0.78 3 3 NMSE: 0.77 h t n o 2 2 m 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S49. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [31].

50 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

2.5 Belaya At Mishelevka NME: 1.47 W : 0.52 2.5 R2: 0.11 55.92 N / 104.1 E Yenisei NMSE: 2.77 R2: 0.11 NME: 1.49

2.0 2.0 NMSE: 2.06 h t n o 1.5 1.5 m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Lena At Zmeinovo NME: 0.70 W : 0.58 R2: 0.25 55.92 N / 117.53 E 2 3.0 Lena NMSE: 0.90 R : 0.24 3.0 NME: 0.71 NMSE: 0.95 h t n o 2.0 2.0 m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Verkhnyaya Angara At Verkhnyaya Zaimka NME: 1.21 W : 0.49 R2: 0.03 55.85 N / 110.15 E 3.0 Yenisei NMSE: 1.72 R2: 0.04 3.0 NME: 1.24 NMSE: 1.85 h t n 2.0 2.0 o m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Vitim At Mama NME: 1.18 W : 0.39 R2: 0.00 55.72 N / 121.2 W 2 3.0 Lena NMSE: 1.76 R : 0.00 3.0 NME: 1.22 NMSE: 1.85 h t n o 2.0 2.0 m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2.5 WINDIGO RIVER ABOVE MUSKRAT DAM LAKENME: 1.84 W : 0.24 2.5 R2: 0.00 55.68 N / 74.33 W South and East Hudson Bay NMSE: 9.19 R2: 0.00 NME: 1.54

2.0 2.0 NMSE: 8.50 h t n o 1.5 1.5 m 3 m 1.0 1.0 k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2.0 Lena at Krestovskoe NME: 0.71 W : 0.70 2.0 R2: 0.40 55.58 N / 114.5 E Lena NMSE: 0.80 R2: 0.33 NME: 0.71 NMSE: 0.78 1.5 1.5 h t n o m 1.0 1.0 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S50. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [32].

51 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Chadobets At Yarkino NME: 0.68 W : 0.79 R2: 0.77 55.53 N / 97.83 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.68 R2: 0.56 NME: 0.59 0.8 0.8 NMSE: 0.52 h t n 0.6 0.6 o m 3 0.4 0.4 m k 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0

1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2 40 Biryusa At Solyanaya NME: 1.26 W : 0.62 40 R : 0.25 55.47 N / 92.35 E Yenisei NMSE: 1.45 R2: 0.18 NME: 1.27 NMSE: 1.67 h 30 30 t n o m 20 20 3 m k 10 10 0 0

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Nalgekhe At Nelgekhe NME: 1.19 W : 0.50 R2: 0.17 55.45 N / 117.16 W 2 2.0 Lena NMSE: 3.70 R : 0.14 2.0 NME: 1.18 NMSE: 4.25 h t 1.5 1.5 n o m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Ilim At Kochenga NME: 0.63 W : 0.85 R2: 0.59 55.43 N / 99.42 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.64 R2: 0.56 NME: 0.60 NMSE: 0.57 2.0 2.0 h t n o m 3 m 1.0 1.0 k 0.0 0.0

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kirenga At Karam NME: 0.54 W : 0.81 R2: 0.55 55.42 N / 120.55 E 10 Lena NMSE: 0.57 R2: 0.48 10 NME: 0.54 NMSE: 0.54 8 8 h t n o 6 6 m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Konda At Bol'chary NME: 0.83 W : 0.68 R2: 0.26 55.38 N / 86.08 E Ob NMSE: 1.00 R2: 0.27 NME: 0.83

10 10 NMSE: 1.03 h t 8 8 n o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S51. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [33].

52 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

2.0 Konda At Chantir'ya NME: 1.86 W : 0.44 2.0 R2: 0.36 55.21 N / 84.98 E Ob NMSE: 8.38 R2: 0.24 NME: 1.91 NMSE: 7.90 1.5 1.5 h t n o m 1.0 1.0 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 1.5 1.5 Kovda (Kuma) At Istok iz ozera Kundozero NME: 0.98 W : 0.71 R2: 0.46 55.15 N / 107.62 E North European Russia NMSE: 1.08 R2: 0.31 NME: 0.94 NMSE: 0.94 h t 1.0 1.0 n o m 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Lena At Zhigalovo NME: 0.63 W : 0.74 2 55.15 N / 116.77 E

2.0 2.0 R : 0.32 Lena NMSE: 0.85 R2: 0.33 NME: 0.65 NMSE: 1.11 h t 1.5 1.5 n o m 1.0 1.0 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 7 7 Kem' At Ushkozerskaya GES NME: 0.57 W : 0.81 R2: 0.49 55.12 N / 116.77 E 6 North European Russia NMSE: 0.57 R2: 0.46 6 NME: 0.56 NMSE: 0.61 5 5 h t n o 4 4 m 3 3 3 m k 2 2 1 1 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

NME: 1.75 2 25 WILLOWLAKE RIVER BELOW METAHDALI CREEK W : 0.33 25 R : 0.08 55.02 N / 73.3 E Mackenzie NMSE: 8.25 R2: 0.08 NME: 1.66 NMSE: 9.48 20 20 h t n o 15 15 m 3 m 10 10 k 5 5 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2 1.2 Kubena At Istominsky NME: 1.16 W : 0.54 1.2 R : 0.09 54.82 N / 105.13 E North European Russia NMSE: 1.57 R2: 0.09 NME: 1.22 NMSE: 1.64 h t n 0.8 0.8 o m 3 m k 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S52. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [34].

53 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Irkut At Irkutsk NME: 0.90 W : 0.60 R2: 0.16 54.5 N / 102.02 E 2

3.0 Yenisei NMSE: 1.11 R : 0.19 3.0 NME: 0.91 NMSE: 1.20 h t n o 2.0 2.0 m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

LIARD RIVER NEAR THE MOUTH NME: 1.49 W : 0.46 R2: 0.19 54.15 N / 74.8 E 20 Mackenzie NMSE: 5.21 R2: 0.16 20 NME: 1.65 NMSE: 5.44 h t 15 15 n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1945 1950 1955 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Tczew NME: 0.82 W : 0.84 2 15 15 R : 0.72 54.09 N / 18.8 E Wisla NMSE: 0.81 R2: 0.58 NME: 0.86 NMSE: 0.71 h t n 10 10 o m 3 m 5 5 k 0 0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2.5 Oka At Ust'−Kada NME: 0.99 W : 0.53 2.5 R2: 0.07 54.07 N / 99.25 E Yenisei NMSE: 1.29 R2: 0.09 NME: 0.99

2.0 2.0 NMSE: 1.41 h t n o 1.5 1.5 m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kanal Belomorsko−Baltiiskiy (Nizhniy Vyg) At MatkozhnyaNME: 0.60 W : 0.79 R2: 0.41 54.03 N / 115 E 2 4 North European Russia NMSE: 0.62 R : 0.42 4 NME: 0.59 NMSE: 0.74 h t 3 3 n o m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2.5 Nadym At Nadym NME: 3.07 W : 0.55 2.5 R2: 0.94 54 N / 61.51 E Ob NMSE: 9.38 R2: 0.63 NME: 3.17

2.0 2.0 NMSE: 18.22 h t n o 1.5 1.5 m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1945 1950 1955 1960 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S53. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [35].

54 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Lena At Kachug NME: 1.12 W : 0.56 R2: 0.26 53.97 N / 105.88 E 2 1.2 Lena NMSE: 1.44 R : 0.21 1.2 NME: 1.20 NMSE: 1.76 h t n o 0.8 0.8 m 3 m k 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Irkut At Tibel'ty NME: 0.78 W : 0.60 R2: 0.24 53.95 N / 102.1 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.96 R2: 0.24 NME: 0.77 NMSE: 0.98 2.0 2.0 h t n o m 3 m 1.0 1.0 k 0.0 0.0

1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 5 5 DEASE RIVER NEAR THE MOUTH NME: 1.01 W : 0.64 R2: 0.41 53.8 N / 83.57 E Mackenzie NMSE: 1.94 R2: 0.26 NME: 0.96 4 4 NMSE: 1.87 h t n 3 3 o m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 4 4 Chernoye At Chernoye NME: 1.18 W : 0.46 R2: 0.12 53.8 N / 83.56 E Ob NMSE: 2.25 R2: 0.07 NME: 1.23 NMSE: 2.55 3 3 h t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1936 1938 1940 1942 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

KECHIKA RIVER ABOVE BOYA CREEK NME: 0.77 W : 0.59 R2: 0.63 53.78 N / 87.15 E Mackenzie NMSE: 0.90 R2: 0.54 NME: 0.80 NMSE: 0.94 10 10 h t n 8 8 o m 6 6 3 m k 4 4 2 2 0 0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Norway Tana At Polmak NME: 1.43 W : 0.55 R2: 0.11 53.73 N / 78.57 W NMSE: 2.81 2 20 Scandinavia R : 0.13 20 NME: 1.55 NMSE: 3.31 h t n 15 15 o m 3 10 10 m k 5 5 0 0

1960 1965 1970 1975 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S54. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [36].

55 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Angara At Ust'−Ilimskaya GES NME: 0.97 W : 0.60 R2: 0.18 53.66 N / 91.5 E 2 15 Yenisei NMSE: 1.32 R : 0.16 15 NME: 0.90 NMSE: 1.27 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1956 1958 1960 1962 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Inya At Kusmen' NME: 1.66 W : 0.40 R2: 0.04 53.65 N / 76.64 W 3.0 Ob NMSE: 4.57 R2: 0.04 3.0 NME: 1.89 NMSE: 6.05 h t n 2.0 2.0 o m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Barguzin At Barguzin NME: 1.04 W : 0.58 R2: 0.25 53.6 N / 109.6 E Yenisei NMSE: 1.29 R2: 0.18 NME: 1.04

1.5 1.5 NMSE: 1.42 h t n o 1.0 1.0 m 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Ubagan At 5 km nizhe Karangala NME: 1.98 W : 0.31 R2: 0.00 53.59 N / 71.19 W 5 5 Ob NMSE: 6.61 R2: 0.01 NME: 2.26 NMSE: 8.11 4 4 h t n o 3 3 m 3 m 2 2 k 1 1 0 0

1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

PEACE RIVER AT PEACE POINT NME: 1.06 W : 0.65 R2: 0.22 53.4 N / 83.82 E 2 20 Mackenzie NMSE: 1.62 R : 0.22 20 NME: 1.07 NMSE: 1.68 h t n 15 15 o m 3 10 10 m k 5 5 0 0

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Angara At Tatarka NME: 0.87 W : 0.57 R2: 0.15 53.35 N / 102.2 E Yenisei NMSE: 1.10 R2: 0.16 NME: 0.85 NMSE: 1.13 h t 2.0 2.0 n o m 3 m 1.0 1.0 k 0.0 0.0

1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S55. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [37].

56 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Uy At Krutoyarskiy NME: 2.10 W : 0.24 R2: 0.05 53.34 N / 91.79 W Ob NMSE: 6.12 2 NME: 2.75 2.0 R : 0.01 2.0 NMSE: 11.85 h t n 1.5 1.5 o m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kovda At Mezhdu Kuz'min i Semezh'e NME: 0.59 W : 0.74 R2: 0.43 53.22 N / 111.68 E 2 2.0 North European Russia NMSE: 0.58 R : 0.48 2.0 NME: 0.64 NMSE: 0.68 h t 1.5 1.5 n o m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Kanal Belomorsko−Baltiiskiy (Nizhniy Vyg) At Nadvoy−TyNME: 0.68 W : 0.57 R2: 0.46 53.2 N / 112.77 E North European Russia NMSE: 0.80 R2: 0.26 NME: 0.64 NMSE: 0.70 2.0 2.0 h t n o m 3 m 1.0 1.0 k 0.0 0.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Iset' At Kataisk NME: 1.73 W : 0.24 R2: 0.13 52.95 N / 87.7 W 2 3.0 Ob NMSE: 4.80 R : 0.05 3.0 NME: 1.96 NMSE: 6.67 h t n o 2.0 2.0 m 3 m k 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Angara At Boguchany NME: 1.04 W : 0.63 R2: 0.24 52.85 N / 103.17 E Yenisei NMSE: 1.23 R2: 0.23 NME: 1.02 1.5 1.5 NMSE: 1.26 h t n o 1.0 1.0 m 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 12 12 Ilim At Sotnikova NME: 0.99 W : 0.58 R2: 0.13 52.66 N / 91.33 E 2 10 Yenisei NMSE: 1.38 R : 0.12 10 NME: 0.95 NMSE: 1.34 h 8 8 t n o 6 6 m 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S56. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [38].

57 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

20 Kova At Prokop'evo NME: 1.08 W : 0.58 20 R2: 0.16 52.66 N / 91.35 E Yenisei NMSE: 1.46 R2: 0.12 NME: 1.03 NMSE: 1.43 15 15 h t n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 7 7 PINE RIVER AT EAST PINE NME: 0.91 W : 0.70 R2: 0.30 52.55 N / 85.28 E 6 Mackenzie NMSE: 1.05 R2: 0.31 6 NME: 0.97 NMSE: 1.15 5 5 h t n 4 4 o m 3 3 3 m k 2 2 1 1 0 0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

WABASCA RIVER AT WADLIN LAKE ROADNME: 1.02 W : 0.67 R2: 0.26 52.45 N / 84.92 E NMSE: 1.22 2 NME: 1.03 12 Mackenzie R : 0.25 12 NMSE: 1.29 h t n o 8 8 m 3 6 6 m k 4 4 2 2 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

NME: 0.85 2 2.0 Angara At Bratskaya GES (n/b) W : 0.72 2.0 R : 0.44 52.28 N / 104.28 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.84 R2: 0.42 NME: 0.84 NMSE: 0.89 h 1.5 1.5 t n o m 1.0 1.0 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2 15 Khilok At Maleta NME: 3.46 W : 0.30 15 R : 0.03 52.27 N / 104.32 E Yenisei NMSE: 9.65 R2: 0.01 NME: 6.78 NMSE: 53.17 h t n 10 10 o m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Uy At Troitsk (Pugaevskaya Sopka) NME: 1.39 W : 0.57 R2: 0.28 52.24 N / 78.07 W

15 Ob NMSE: 3.07 R2: 0.17 15 NME: 1.48 NMSE: 2.80 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S57. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [39].

58 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

2 15 Khilok At Khilok NME: 3.70 W : 0.27 15 R : 0.17 52.23 N / 104.3 E Yenisei NMSE: 11.59 R2: 0.00 NME: 12.27 NMSE: 137.66 h t n 10 10 o m 3 m 5 5 k 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 5 5 PEACE RIVER ABOVE ALCES RIVER NME: 1.02 W : 0.68 R2: 0.34 52.13 N / 83.28 E Mackenzie NMSE: 1.86 2 NME: 1.00

4 R : 0.29 4 NMSE: 1.83 h t n 3 3 o m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Uda At Shirokovo NME: 1.01 W : 0.59 R2: 0.16 52.12 N / 92.28 E 2 20 Yenisei NMSE: 1.42 R : 0.13 20 NME: 0.96 NMSE: 1.29 h t 15 15 n o m 3 10 10 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 5 5 Iset' At Isetskoye NME: 1.40 W : 0.44 R2: 0.00 52.08 N / 87.07 W Ob NMSE: 3.33 R2: 0.03 NME: 1.47 4 4 NMSE: 3.74 h t n 3 3 o m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Selenga At Novoselenginsk NME: 0.62 W : 0.88 R2: 0.70 52.07 N / 106.65 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.48 R2: 0.63 NME: 0.50 NMSE: 0.40 10 10 h t n 8 8 o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Barguzin At Barguzin NME: 0.63 W : 0.87 R2: 0.70 52.03 N / 107.48 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.54 R2: 0.60 NME: 0.51 NMSE: 0.40 10 10 h t n 8 8 o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S58. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [40].

59 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Angara At Ostrov Yunost' NME: 0.86 W : 0.66 R2: 0.46 51.78 N / 103.27 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.97 2 NME: 0.83

1.2 R : 0.44 1.2 NMSE: 1.03 h t n o 0.8 0.8 m 3 m k 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 14 14 Ilim At Ilimsk NME: 1.00 W : 0.59 R2: 0.28 51.66 N / 92.33 E Yenisei NMSE: 1.35 R2: 0.19 NME: 0.96 NMSE: 1.33 10 10 h t n 8 8 o m 6 6 3 m k 4 4 2 2 0 0

1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Suery At Volosnikovo NME: 2.16 W : 0.41 R2: 0.17 51.44 N / 76.87 W Ob NMSE: 6.79 R2: 0.09 NME: 2.24 10 10 NMSE: 5.36 h t 8 8 n o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Selenga At Raz'ezd Mostovoy NME: 0.77 W : 0.68 R2: 0.28 51.35 N / 110.47 E 2 0.8 Yenisei NMSE: 0.94 R : 0.23 0.8 NME: 0.72 NMSE: 0.97 h t 0.6 0.6 n o m 3 0.4 0.4 m k 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Khilok At Khailastuy NME: 0.83 W : 0.70 R2: 0.28 51.2 N / 106.97 E Yenisei NMSE: 1.09 R2: 0.25 NME: 0.79 NMSE: 1.17 1.5 1.5 h t n o m 1.0 1.0 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Verkhnyaya Angara At Verkhnyaya Zaimka NME: 0.68 W : 0.86 R2: 0.71 51.1 N / 106.67 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.70 R2: 0.59 NME: 0.56 15 15 NMSE: 0.46 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S59. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [41].

60 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data 15 15 LA MARTRE RIVER BELOW OUTLET OF LACN LAME :MARTRE 1.27 W : 0.67 R2: 0.37 50.88 N / 78.32 E Mackenzie NMSE: 2.21 R2: 0.34 NME: 1.30 NMSE: 2.53 h t 10 10 n o m 3 m 5 5 k 0 0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Selenga At Kabansk NME: 0.68 W : 0.78 R2: 0.60 50.83 N / 108.4 E 2 1.2 Yenisei NMSE: 0.69 R : 0.39 1.2 NME: 0.53 NMSE: 0.49 h t n o 0.8 0.8 m 3 m k 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Tavda At Tabory NME: 1.45 W : 0.45 2 20 20 R : 0.10 50.81 N / 81.29 W Ob NMSE: 4.03 R2: 0.11 NME: 1.65 NMSE: 4.68 h 15 15 t n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 25 25 Nura At Sergiopolskoye NME: 1.61 W : 0.47 R2: 0.11 50.74 N / 81.45 W Ob NMSE: 4.73 R2: 0.16 NME: 1.74 20 20 NMSE: 5.77 h t n 15 15 o m 3 10 10 m k 5 5 0 0

1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Chikoy At Gremyachka NME: 0.67 W : 0.81 R2: 0.56 50.62 N / 107.82 E Yenisei NMSE: 0.69 R2: 0.45 NME: 0.62 1.2 1.2 NMSE: 0.59 h t n o 0.8 0.8 m 3 m k 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 7 7 Tom' At Kemerovo, St.metalploschadka NME: 1.79 W : 0.52 R2: 0.17 50.6 N / 81.41 W 2 6 Ob NMSE: 3.73 R : 0.18 6 NME: 2.13 NMSE: 5.26 5 5 h t n o 4 4 m 3 3 3 m k 2 2 1 1 0 0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S60. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [42].

61 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

7 Aley At Khabazino NME: 1.34 W : 0.45 7 R2: 0.07 50.58 N / 82.11 W 2

6 Ob NMSE: 3.42 R : 0.09 6 NME: 1.53 NMSE: 4.34 h 5 5 t n o 4 4 m 3 3 3 m k 2 2 1 1 0 0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Chikoy At Gremyachka NME: 0.92 W : 0.63 R2: 0.22 50.3 N / 108.63 E 1.5 Yenisei NMSE: 1.05 R2: 0.24 1.5 NME: 0.96 NMSE: 1.20 h t n 1.0 1.0 o m 3 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

20 Sos'va (B.Sos'va) At Novaya Pristan' NME: 1.50 W : 0.59 20 R2: 0.32 50.13 N / 77.42 W Ob NMSE: 3.63 R2: 0.24 NME: 1.71 NMSE: 3.62 15 15 h t n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Ishim At Vikulovo NME: 2.54 W : 0.39 R2: 0.87 50.06 N / 73.35 E Ob NMSE: 9.57 R2: 0.20 NME: 3.62 NMSE: 54.76 h t 0.8 0.8 n o m 3 m 0.4 0.4 k 0.0 0.0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Nitsa At Irbit NME: 1.22 W : 0.66 R2: 0.50 50.06 N / 82.15 W Ob NMSE: 2.71 R2: 0.37 NME: 1.09 10 10 NMSE: 1.74 h t 8 8 n o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1930 1940 1950 1960 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Tobol At Korkino NME: 1.79 W : 0.39 R2: 0.09 50 N / 82.16 W Ob NMSE: 6.21 R2: 0.09 NME: 2.06

10 10 NMSE: 8.23 h t 8 8 n o m 6 6 3 m 4 4 k 2 2 0 0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S61. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [43].

62 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data 8 8 Inya (Nizhnyaya) At Ust'−Sosnovka NME: 2.63 W : 0.41 R2: 0.19 49.88 N / 81.56 W Ob NMSE: 8.77 R2: 0.16 NME: 3.32

6 6 NMSE: 15.49 h t n o 4 4 m 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1940 1960 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Yaya At Semenovsk NME: 1.83 W : 0.34 R2: 0.00 49.85 N / 77.18 W 10 Ob NMSE: 5.03 R2: 0.00 10 NME: 1.76 NMSE: 4.48 8 8 h t n o 6 6 m 3 4 4 m k 2 2 0 0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2.5 MACKENZIE RIVER AT ARCTIC RED RIVER NME: 0.88 W : 0.70 2.5 R2: 0.55 49.82 N / 84.33 E Mackenzie NMSE: 0.98 R2: 0.46 NME: 0.92 NMSE: 1.01 2.0 2.0 h t n o 1.5 1.5 m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1960 1970 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 8 8 Poluy At Yangy−Ugan NME: 1.57 W : 0.45 R2: 0.05 49.75 N / 77.61 W Ob NMSE: 4.24 R2: 0.08 NME: 1.88 NMSE: 4.78 6 6 h t n o m 4 4 3 m k 2 2 0 0

1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2 6 Parabel' At Soisraeva NME: 1.54 W : 0.44 6 R : 0.02 49.69 N / 75.98 W Ob NMSE: 3.45 R2: 0.03 NME: 1.68

5 5 NMSE: 3.33 h t n 4 4 o m 3 3 3 m k 2 2 1 1 0 0

1965 1970 1975 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

2 4 Tura At Tumen' NME: 1.13 W : 0.65 4 R : 0.34 49.31 N / 82.04 W Ob NMSE: 2.04 R2: 0.27 NME: 1.08 NMSE: 1.60 3 3 h t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1920 1940 1960 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S62. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [44].

63 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

NME: 2.01 2 4 Tura At Turinsk W : 0.38 4 R : 0.11 49.26 N / 81.64 W Ob NMSE: 7.64 R2: 0.11 NME: 2.38 NMSE: 11.71 h 3 3 t n o m 2 2 3 m k 1 1 0 0

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Yenisey At Ust'−Usa NME: 1.11 W : 0.80 R2: 0.76 49.22 N / 102.5 E 2 2.0 Yenisei NMSE: 1.42 R : 0.60 2.0 NME: 1.04 NMSE: 1.29 h t n 1.5 1.5 o m 3 1.0 1.0 m k 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 0.8 0.8 Yenisey At Divnogorsk NME: 0.85 W : 0.65 R2: 0.72 48.65 N / 103.6 E Yenisei NMSE: 1.00 R2: 0.24 NME: 0.70 NMSE: 0.58 0.6 0.6 h t n o m 0.4 0.4 3 m k 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Bratislava NME: 1.05 W : 0.78 R2: 0.37 48.12 N / 17.1 E Danube NMSE: 1.11 R2: 0.46 NME: 1.29

15 15 NMSE: 1.81 h t n o 10 10 m 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 5 5 YELLOWKNIFE RIVER POWER DIVERSION ATNM SITEE: 1.10 Y2 W : 0.46 R2: 0.01 48 N / 85.22 E Mackenzie NMSE: 1.61 2 NME: 1.10

4 R : 0.01 4 NMSE: 1.73 h t n 3 3 o m 3 2 2 m k 1 1 0 0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Ceatal Izmail NME: 0.86 W : 0.81 R2: 0.52 45.18 N / 28.8 E Danube NMSE: 1.01 R2: 0.51 NME: 1.00

60 60 NMSE: 1.29 h t n o 40 40 m 3 m k 20 20 0 0

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S63. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [45].

64 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Hermann NME: 2.16 W : 0.57 R2: 0.75 38.71 N / 91.43 W NMSE: 5.27 2 NME: 2.98

60 Missouri R : 0.47 60 NMSE: 11.99 h t n o 40 40 m 3 m k 20 20 0 0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

NME: 0.72 2 150 Vicksburg W : 0.86 150 R : 0.58 32.31 N / 90.9 W Mississippi NMSE: 0.49 R2: 0.58 NME: 0.79 NMSE: 0.62 h t n 100 100 o m 3 m k 50 50

1965 1970 1975 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

140 Datong NME: 0.49 W : 0.94 140 R2: 0.98 30.76 N / 117.61 E Changjiang NMSE: 0.22 R2: 0.97 NME: 0.50 NMSE: 0.24 h t 100 100 n o m 3 60 60 m k 20 20

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Bahadurabad NME: 0.33 W : 0.97 R2: 0.97 25.18 N / 89.66 E Brahmaputra NMSE: 0.14 R2: 0.90 NME: 0.23

150 150 NMSE: 0.06 h t n o 100 100 m 3 m k 50 50 0 0

1970 1972 1974 1976 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Farakka NME: 0.43 W : 0.95 R2: 0.99 24.83 N / 87.92 E 200 Ganges NMSE: 0.28 R2: 0.95 200 NME: 0.45 NMSE: 0.29 h t 150 150 n o m 3 100 100 m k 50 50 0 0

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

NME: 0.32 2 50 Wuzhou 3 W : 0.95 50 R : 0.97 23.48 N / 111.3 E Xijiang NMSE: 0.19 R2: 0.82 NME: 0.18 NMSE: 0.04 40 40 h t n o 30 30 m 3 m 20 20 k 10 10 0 0

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S64. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [46].

65 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

Ashti NME: 0.59 W : 0.89 2 20 20 R : 0.97 19.78 N / 79.78 E Wainganga NMSE: 0.69 R2: 0.87 NME: 0.66 NMSE: 0.82 h 15 15 t n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 120 120 Mukdahan NME: 0.48 W : 0.94 R2: 0.92 16.33 N / 104.89 E Mekong NMSE: 0.32 R2: 0.84 NME: 0.41 NMSE: 0.23 h 80 80 t n o m 60 60 3 m 40 40 k 20 20 0 0

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Khartoum NME: 1.86 W : 0.66 R2: 0.94 15.61 N / 32.55 E 2 50 Blue Nile NMSE: 5.11 R : 0.87 50 NME: 1.87 NMSE: 5.37 h 40 40 t n o m 30 30 3 m 20 20 k 10 10 0 0

1920 1940 1960 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month 60 60 Bakel NME: 2.06 W : 0.60 R2: 0.79 14.9 N / 12.45 W NMSE: 6.79 2 NME: 2.01 50 Senegal R : 0.71 50 NMSE: 7.25 h t 40 40 n o m 30 30 3 m 20 20 k 10 10 0 0

1920 1940 1960 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

20 Langa Tabbetje NME: 0.94 W : 0.85 20 R2: 0.90 5 N / 54.4 W Langa Tabbetje NMSE: 1.07 R2: 0.84 NME: 0.97 NMSE: 1.16 15 15 h t n o m 10 10 3 m k 5 5 0 0

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Obidos NME: 1.16 W : 0.73 R2: 0.40 1.91 S / 55.55 W Amazonas NMSE: 1.49 R2: 0.36 NME: 1.18 800 800 NMSE: 1.43 h t n o 600 600 m 3 m k 400 400 200 200

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S65. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [47].

66 Discharge LPJmL4 gauge data

350 Kinshasa NME: 3.46 W : 0.42 350 R2: 0.41 4.3 S / 15.3 E Zaire NMSE: 11.43 R2: 0.36 NME: 4.02 NMSE: 15.50 h t 250 250 n o m 3 150 150 m k 50 50 0 0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Porto Velho NME: 0.98 W : 0.81 R2: 0.67 8.76 S / 63.91 W Rio Madeira NMSE: 1.28 R2: 0.65 NME: 0.99

150 150 NMSE: 1.31 h t n o m 100 100 3 m k 50 50 0 0

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Guaira NME: 1.58 W : 0.73 R2: 0.84 24.06 S / 54.26 W Parana NMSE: 2.86 R2: 0.64 NME: 1.88 NMSE: 4.08 100 100 h t n o m 60 60 3 m k 20 20 0 0

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 2 4 6 8 10 12

years month

Figure S66. Evaluation of river discharge at gauging stations [48].

67 Soil organic carbon Carvalhais et al. 2014

Carvalhais et al. 2014 50000 LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM LPJmL4−NOGSI−GlobFIRM LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM−PNV LPJmL4−NOGSI−NOPERM−GlobFIRM LPJmL4−GSI−SPITFIRE 30000 10000 0

−40 −20 0 20 40 60 80 LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM

− gC m 2

0 10000 25000 40000 55000 70000 85000

Figure S67. The maps (left side) show the spatial pattern of soil organic carbon [gC m−2] distribution from the standard LPJmL4 simulation against data from Carvalhais et al.(2014). The graph on the right side shows the latitudinal pattern of vegetation biomass distribution simulated by the different versions of LPJmL4 against data from Carvalhais et al.(2014).

GPP GPP GPP

2 2 2 ● RMSE = 0.4 R = 0.72 RMSE = 0.6 R = 0.17 RMSE = 0.29 R = 0.51 NMSE = 0.33 s = 0.71 3.0 NMSE = 1.07 s = 0.27 2.0 NMSE = 0.69 s = 0.71 NME = 0.59 p = 0 NME = 0.91 p = 6e−05 NME = 0.83 p = 0 ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● 3 2.5 ●● ●

)] )] )] ●

1 1 1 ●

− − − 1.5 ● ● ● ● a a a

● ● ● ● ● 2 2 2 ● ● ● ● ● − − 2.0 − ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● m m ● m ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● 2 ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● 1.5 ● ● ● 1.0 ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● [kgC ● ● ● [kgC ●● ● [kgC ● ●● ● ● ●●● ●● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ●●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● 1.0 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1 ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● 0.5 ● ● LPJmL4 LPJmL4 ● LPJmL4 ●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.5 ● ● ● ● 0 0.0 0.0

0 1 2 3 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 − − − − − − Observed [kgC m 2 a 1)] Observed [kgC m 2 a 1)] Observed [kgC m 2 a 1)]

(a) (b) (c) Figure S68. Comparison of GPP from different sources; MTE data (Jung et al., 2011) against plot data (Luys- saert et al., 2007) (a), LPJmL4 against MTE data (Jung et al., 2011) (b), and LPJmL4 against MTE data (Jung et al., 2011) but without the outliers of very high GPP in the MTE data (c).

68 (a) (a) Biomass Carvalhais et al. 2014

Carvalhais et al. 2014 LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM LPJmL4−NOGSI−GlobFIRM LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM−PNV 20000 LPJmL4−NOGSI−NOPERM−GlobFIRM LPJmL4−GSI−SPITFIRE 10000 5000 0

−40 −20 0 20 40 60 80 LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM

− gC m 2

0 4000 8000 12000 16000 20000

(b) (b) above ground biomass Liu et al. 2015

Liu et al. 2015 LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM

20000 LPJmL4−NOGSI−GlobFIRM LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM−PNV LPJmL4−NOGSI−NOPERM−GlobFIRM LPJmL4−GSI−SPITFIRE 15000 10000 5000 0

−40 −20 0 20 40 60 80 LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM

− gC m 2

0 2000 5000 8000 11000 14000 17000

Figure S69. (a) The maps (left side) show the spatial pattern of vegetation biomass [gC m−2] distribution from the standard LPJmL4 simulation against data from Jung et al.(2011); Carvalhais et al.(2014). The graph on the right side shows the latitudinal pattern of vegetation biomass distribution simulated by the different versions of LPJmL4 against data from Jung et al.(2011); Carvalhais et al.(2014). (b) Similar as above but for aboveground biomass [gC m−2] from Liu et al.(2015).

69 Figure S70. Evaluation of ecosystem respiration [gC m−2 a−1] comparing LPJml4 with satellite-derived ecosystem respiration (Jägermeyr et al., 2014).

70 Evapotranspiration MTE

MTE LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM 1200 LPJmL4−NOGSI−GlobFIRM LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM−PNV LPJmL4−NOGSI−NOPERM−GlobFIRM LPJmL4−GSI−SPITFIRE 800 600 400 200 0

−40 −20 0 20 40 60 80 LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM

− mm a 1

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Figure S71. The maps (left side) show the spatial pattern of evapotranspiration [mm a−1] distribution from the standard LPJmL4 simulation against the MTE data (Jung et al., 2011). The graph on the right side shows the latitudinal pattern of evapotranspiration distribution simulated by the different versions of LPJmL4 against data from Jung et al.(2011).

Fractional burnt area GFED4 LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM

0.4 GFED4 CCI LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM LPJmL4−NOGSI−GlobFIRM 0.3 LPJmL4−GSI−GlobFIRM−PNV LPJmL4−NOGSI−NOPERM−GlobFIRM LPJmL4−GSI−SPITFIRE 0.2 0.1 0.0

−40 −20 0 20 40 60 80 CCI LPJmL4−GSI−SPITFIRE

fractional burnt area

0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1

Figure S72. Observed and simulated estimations of fractional area burnt. Observed estimation both are based on remote sensing data (GFED4: http://www.globalfiredata.org/ and CCI Fire Version 4.1: http://cci.esa.int/data).

71 Af Am As Aw

0.16** −0.24** −0.054 0.25*** 0.58*** 0.79*** 0.43*** 0.79*** 0.53*** 0.6*** 0.78*** 0.68*** FAPAR (−) FAPAR (−) FAPAR (−) FAPAR (−) FAPAR 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 BSh BSk Cw Cs

0.55*** 0.73*** 0.71*** 0.58*** 0.57*** 0.61*** −0.1. 0.081 0.096 0.22*** 0.47*** 0.54*** FAPAR (−) FAPAR (−) FAPAR (−) FAPAR (−) FAPAR 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 Cf Ds Dw Df

0.93*** 0.92*** 0.87*** 0.83*** 0.95*** 0.93*** 0.75*** 0.98*** 0.96*** 0.95*** 0.97*** 0.94*** FAPAR (−) FAPAR (−) FAPAR (−) FAPAR (−) FAPAR 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008

GIMMS3g FAPAR VGT2 FAPAR MODIS FAPAR LPJmL−GSI−STDFIRE FAPAR

Figure S73. FAPAR comparison of seasonal dynamic for Koeppen-Geiger classification against 3 different remote sensing products: MODIS FAPAR, GIMMS3g FAPAR, and VGT2 FAPAR. A map of the Köppen classification can be found here [http://koeppen-geiger.vu-wien.ac.at].

Af Am As Aw

0.26** −0.24** −0.13 −0.11 Albedo (−) Albedo (−) Albedo (−) Albedo (−) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6

2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 BSh BSk Cw Cs

0.2* 0.79*** −0.56*** −0.26** Albedo (−) Albedo (−) Albedo (−) Albedo (−) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6

2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 Cf Ds Dw Df

−0.071 0.95*** 0.72*** 0.84*** Albedo (−) Albedo (−) Albedo (−) Albedo (−) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6

2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008 2000 2004 2008

MODIS Albedo LPJmL−GSI−STDFIRE Albedo

Figure S74. Albedo comparison for Koeppen-Geiger classification with MODIS remote sensing data. A map of the Köppen classification can be found here [http://koeppen-geiger.vu-wien.ac.at].

72 China India Indonesia Bangladesh 5 8 0.0985 n.s. 0.0023 n.s. 0.246 n.s. 0.0221 n.s. 5 4 3 6 4 1 − 3 2 3 4 2 2 tFM ha 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Vietnam Thailand Myanmar Philippines 6

0.367 n.s. −0.274 n.s. −0.198 n.s. 4 0.390 * 3 4 5 3 1 4 3 − 2 3 2 2 2 tFM ha 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Brazil Japan 5

0.316 n.s. 8 0.784 *** 4

6 FAOstat *** p<0.001 1 −

3 LPJmL4 ** p<0.01 4 FAOstat residuals * p<0.05 2 tFM ha

2 LPJmL4 residuals n.s. not significant 1 0 0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010

Figure S75. Evaluation of crop variability comparing rice yields computed by LPJml4 with FAO yield data.

73 USA Brazil Argentina China

0.434 * 3 0.626 *** 0.298 n.s. 0.171 n.s. 4 2.0 3 3 1 2 − 2 2 1.0 1 1 1 tFM ha 0 0 0 0.0 −1

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 India Paraguay Canada Uruguay 4

0.0159 n.s. 0.230 n.s. 4 0.219 n.s. 0.106 n.s. 3 3 3 1.5 1 − 2 2 2 1 1 1 tFM ha 0.5 0 0 0 −1 −1 −1 −0.5 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Ukraine Bolivia 3 2.0 0.316 n.s. −0.489 **

2 FAOstat *** p<0.001 1 − LPJmL4 ** p<0.01 1.0

1 FAOstat residuals * p<0.05

tFM ha LPJmL4 residuals n.s. not significant 0 0.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010

Figure S76. As Fig. S75 for soy.

74 Brazil India China Thailand

0.292 n.s. 0.070 n.s. 0.491 ** 80 0.315 n.s. 80 80 60 60 1 60 − 60 40 40 40 tFM ha 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Pakistan Mexico Colombia Philippines −0.0608 n.s. 0.0319 n.s. 0.303 n.s. 0.0112 n.s. 150 80 60 80 1 60 − 100 40 40 40 tFM ha 50 20 20 0 0 0 0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Australia USA 0.0798 n.s. 0.0519 n.s. 100

80 FAOstat *** p<0.001 1 − LPJmL4 ** p<0.01 60 FAOstat residuals * p<0.05 40

tFM ha LPJmL4 residuals n.s. not significant 20 0 −20 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010

Figure S77. As Fig. S75 for sugarcane.

75 Canada China India Germany 5

2.5 0.288 n.s. 0.298 n.s. 0.181 n.s. 0.300 n.s. 2.0 4 1.0 1 − 3 1.5 2 1.0 0.5 tFM ha 0.5 1 0 0.0 0.0 −0.5 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 France Australia United Kingdom Poland 4

4 0.271 n.s. 0.789 *** 0.057 n.s. 0.301 n.s. 3 3 3 3 2 1 − 2 2 2 1 1 tFM ha 1 1 0 0 0 0 −1

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Ukraine Czech Republic 2.5 0.345 n.s. 4 0.474 **

3 FAOstat *** p<0.001 1 − 1.5 LPJmL4 ** p<0.01 2 FAOstat residuals * p<0.05 1 tFM ha LPJmL4 residuals n.s. not significant 0.5 0 −0.5 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010

Figure S78. As Fig. S75 for rapeseed.

76 Ukraine Argentina China 3 2.5 2.0 0.215 n.s. 0.317 n.s. 0.267 n.s. 2 1 − No data supply 1.5 1.0

for Russia. 1 tFM ha 0.5 0 0.0 −0.5 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 France Romania Bulgaria Turkey

0.389 * 0.649 *** 0.717 *** 3 0.745 *** 3 2.0 1.5 2 1 − 2 1.0 1 1 tFM ha 0.5 0.0 0 0 −1 −1.0 −0.5 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Hungary USA 0.477 ** 0.442 * 3 3 FAOstat *** p<0.001 1 2 − 2 LPJmL4 ** p<0.01

1 FAOstat residuals * p<0.05 1

tFM ha LPJmL4 residuals n.s. not significant 0 0 −1 −1

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010

Figure S79. As Fig. S75 for sunflower.

77 India Niger Nigeria China

0.436 * 0.6 0.616 *** 0.0289 n.s. 0.392 * 2.0 2.5 1.0 1 0.4 − 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 tFM ha 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 −0.5 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Mali Burkina Faso Ethiopia Senegal 0.264 n.s. 0.0902 n.s. 0.0133 n.s. 0.590 *** 1.5 1.0 0.8 1 0.6 − 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.5 tFM ha 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 −0.2 −0.2 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Sudan 0.523 ** 0.5 FAOstat *** p<0.001

No data supply 0.3 LPJmL4 ** p<0.01 for Chad. FAOstat residuals * p<0.05 LPJmL4 residuals n.s. not significant 0.1 −0.1 1980 1990 2000 2010

Figure S80. As Fig. S75 for millet.

78 China India Nigeria USA 4

0.353 n.s. −0.0159 n.s. 2.0 0.305 n.s. 0.737 *** 4 1.5 3 3 1 − 1.0 2 2 1.0 0.5 tFM ha 1 1 0 0.0 0 0.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Indonesia Myanmar Sudan Senegal

0.0879 n.s. 2.0 0.137 n.s. 0.251 n.s. 0.668 *** 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.5 1 − 1.5 0.6 1.0 0.5 tFM ha 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 −0.5 −0.2 −0.5 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Argentina Tanzania

3 0.201 n.s. −0.214 n.s.

0.8 FAOstat *** p<0.001 1 2 − LPJmL4 ** p<0.01 FAOstat residuals * p<0.05 1 0.4

tFM ha LPJmL4 residuals n.s. not significant 0 0.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010

Figure S81. As Fig. S75 for peanut.

79 Nigeria Thailand Brazil Indonesia 0.0949 n.s. 0.000438 n.s. 0.634 *** 0.131 n.s. 20 25 15 10 1 15 − 10 15 10 5 tFM ha 5 5 5 0 0 0 0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Democratic Republic of the Congo Ghana Angola Vietnam 20

0.0981 n.s. 15 0.315 n.s. 0.0182 n.s. 0.0521 n.s. 8 15 15 1 − 6 10 10 10 4 5 tFM ha 5 5 2 0 0 0 0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 India Mozambique 40 0.298 n.s. 8 0.182 n.s. 6 30 FAOstat *** p<0.001 1 − LPJmL4 ** p<0.01 4 20 FAOstat residuals * p<0.05 2 tFM ha LPJmL4 residuals n.s. not significant 10 0 0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010

Figure S82. As Fig. S75 for cassava.

80 Russia France USA Germany 80

40 0.510 ** −0.077 n.s. 0.444 * −0.214 n.s. 100 60 60 30 1 − 40 40 50 20 20 tFM ha 20 10 0 0 0 0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Turkey Ukraine Poland China 50 40 60 60 0.545 ** 0.212 n.s. −0.261 n.s. −0.178 n.s. 30 1 − 40 40 30 20 20 20 tFM ha 10 10 0 0 0 0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 Egypt United Kingdom 60

−0.0216 n.s. 80 −0.145 n.s.

FAOstat *** p<0.001 60 1 − 40 LPJmL4 ** p<0.01

40 FAOstat residuals * p<0.05 20 tFM ha LPJmL4 residuals n.s. not significant 20 0 0

1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010

Figure S83. As Fig. S75 for sugar beet.

81 LPJmL4 351

301

251

201

151 Days

101

51

1

MIRCA2000 351

301

251

201

151 Days

101

51

1

Difference 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 −1 Months −2 −3 −4 −5 −6

Figure S84. Evaluation of sowing dates of rice: (from top to bottom panel) simulated (LPJmL4) sowing date, observed (MIRCA2000) sowing date and difference between simulated and observed sowing date. Green colours (red colours) in the difference map indicate that simulated sowing dates are too late (too early) com- pared to observations. White colours indicate crop area smaller than 0.001% of grid cell area. Sowing dates in regions without seasonality are not shown.

82 LPJmL4 351

301

251

201

151 Days

101

51

1

MIRCA2000 351

301

251

201

151 Days

101

51

1

Difference 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 −1 Months −2 −3 −4 −5 −6

Figure S85. Evaluation of sowing dates of maize: Caption as for Fig.S84.

83 LPJmL4 351

301

251

201

151 Days

101

51

1

MIRCA2000 351

301

251

201

151 Days

101

51

1

Difference 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 −1 Months −2 −3 −4 −5 −6

Figure S86. Evaluation of sowing dates of millet: Caption as for Fig.S84.

84 LPJmL4 351

301

251

201

151 Days

101

51

1

MIRCA2000 351

301

251

201

151 Days

101

51

1

Difference 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 −1 Months −2 −3 −4 −5 −6

Figure S87. Evaluation of sowing dates of pulses: Caption as for Fig.S84.

85 LPJmL4 351

301

251

201

151 Days

101

51

1

MIRCA2000 351

301

251

201

151 Days

101

51

1

Difference 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 −1 Months −2 −3 −4 −5 −6

Figure S88. Evaluation of sowing dates of sugarbeet: Caption as for Fig.S84.

86 LPJmL4 351

301

251

201

151 Days

101

51

1

MIRCA2000 351

301

251

201

151 Days

101

51

1

Difference 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 −1 Months −2 −3 −4 −5 −6

Figure S89. Evaluation of sowing dates of cassava: Caption as for Fig.S84.

87 LPJmL4 351

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Difference 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 −1 Months −2 −3 −4 −5 −6

Figure S90. Evaluation of sowing dates of sunflower: Caption as for Fig.S84.

88 LPJmL4 351

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Difference 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 −1 Months −2 −3 −4 −5 −6

Figure S91. Evaluation of sowing dates of soybean: Caption as for Fig.S84.

89 LPJmL4 351

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151 Days

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Difference 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 −1 Months −2 −3 −4 −5 −6

Figure S92. Evaluation of sowing dates of groundnut: Caption as for Fig.S84.

90 LPJmL4 351

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Difference 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 −1 Months −2 −3 −4 −5 −6

Figure S93. Evaluation of sowing dates of rapeseed: Caption as for Fig.S84.

91 ]

351

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Figure S94. Simulated sowing dates of rainfed sugar cane.

Table S1. Comparison of field application efficiencies

World region Surface Sprinkler Drip Surface Sprinkler Drip Surface Sprinkler Drip (this study) (Rohwer et al., 2007) (Sauer et al., 2010) North America 52 78 88 48 68 90 50 85 93 South America 50 77 87 51 68 90 38 75 88 Europe and Russia 52 80 90 53 73 90 52 86 93 Mena 62 89 95 49 69 90 22 60 80 SSA 51 70 90 54 75 90 28 64 82 Central and East Asia 50 79 82 48 68 90 42 79 89 South Asia 47 85 92 48 68 90 32 68 84 SE Asia and Oceania 48 67 85 48 71 90 38 75 88 World 50 79 89 49 70 90 42 78 89

For reasons of comparison, we employ here the traditional definition: consumed per applied irrigation water for major world regions compared with literature values in %. This study’s results are area-weighted averages, based on current distribution of irrigation systems (source: Jägermeyr et al.(2015)). MENA – Middle East and North Africa; SSA – sub-Saharan Africa.

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