Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 22 Jan 2020 09:08 GMT Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Forterra Downgrades to FY20 profits but challenging Company Events conditions are expected to “gradually improve” 22-Jan Close Brothers Group; Q220 Trading Update J D Wetherspoon; Q220 Trading Update Berkeley Group An increased capital return programme 23-Jan CPL Resources; Q220 Results for the next two years 24-Jan Givaudan; FY19 Results Marston's; Q120 Trading Update J D Wetherspoon extends its long run of market out 28-Jan Greencore; Q1 trading Paragon Banking; Q120 Results performance in Q2 UDG Healthcare; Q120 IMS Virgin Money UK; Q120 Trading Update Sumo Group In-line pre-close Trading Update from Sumo 29-Jan Wizz Air; Q320 Results Irish Economic View FTB supports form key part of party pledges on housing IRES REIT Fianna Fáil row back on rent freeze proposals – Goodbody (IRES:ID) UK Banks Close Brothers Group (CBG) trading update notes slower loan growth Economic Events Ireland 22-Jan PPI Dec19 Wholesale Price Index Dec19 28-Jan Retail Sales Dec19 United Kingdom 22-Jan CBI Ind. Trends Total Orders Jan20 24-Jan CIPS Manuf. PMI Jan20 CIPS Services PMI Jan20 28-Jan CBI Distributive Trades Survey Jan20 29-Jan Nationwide House Price Jan20 United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Forterra Downgrades to FY20 profits but challenging conditions are expected to “gradually improve” Forterra has this morning issued a trading update ahead of FY results set to be released on Recommendation: Buy March 10th. Here are our main takeaways: Robert Eason +353-1-641 9271 • PBT “in line” – Management has stated that FY19 PBT is expected to be “in line with the [email protected] Board’s expectations”. This follows the previous guidance issued on October 22nd which stated PBT would be “modestly below last year’s result (2018:£64.8m)”. This is broadly consistent with our FY19 PBT forecast of £62.3m. • Challenging conditions to “gradually improve” – Management has flagged that the challenging market conditions experienced in H2 are set to “gradually improve”. That said, the group anticipates that the H1 performance will be weaker yoy as the tougher conditions in H219 roll into H120. We believe that the tougher than anticipated conditions in H1 will lead to c.£2m coming off our FY20 PBT forecast which is currently at c.£64m. • Desford plant expansion progressing as planned – Management also flag that the expansion of its Desford plant (95m extra brick capacity) is “progressing to plan” with the initial structure set to be completed by spring. Although FY19 numbers are "in line" with expectations, it looks like there will be some small downgrades (c.3% on our numbers) to FY20 profit numbers as the tougher market conditions in the latter half of 2019 roll into H120. That said, just as Forterra highlights in the update, we continue to believe that the fundamentals in UK brick market remain “strong” (low inventory levels and high reliance on imports), and with Forterra trading on 9x EV/EBITDA versus its closet peer Ibstock on c.10x, Forterra remains our preferred play in the sector. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 2 22 Jan. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Berkeley Group An increased capital return programme for the next two years Berkeley has announced an increased capital return programme for the next two years. Recommendation: Hold Originally the company had set out targets to return £280m per annum which has now been David O'Brien increased to £500m. The implied yield increases from c.4% to 7.7%. The capital return will +353-1-641 9230 revert to £280m thereafter. david.a.o'[email protected] The company indicates that it could increase its output by 50% over the next six year given the large regeneration sites it will undertake. Over that six year period the company has reiterated its expectation to generate £3.3bn of PBT with annual profits to be in an range of £500-700m. On average this represents an annual PBT of £550m which compares to our average forecast over that period of £585m. Given the management team’s track record of delivery, we believe these forecasts are well underpinned. We have long recognised Berkeley as one of the highest quality plays in the sector. With the stock now yielding 7.7% together with continued comfort on forecasts, the share price looks well underpinned. Home… J D Wetherspoon extends its long run of market out performance in Q2 JDW released a Q220 “business update” this morning for the 12 weeks to 19th January. LFL Recommendation: Hold sales for the period were +4.7%, while total sales were +4.2%. For H1, 25 weeks to January Closing Price: £15.95 19th, LFL sales increased by +5.0% and total sales were +4.9%. This compared to our HY forecasts of +5% and +4.4%. At the Q1 stage, LFL growth was running at 5.3% and total Paul Ruddy +353 1 641 6024 sales growth was +5.6% but the Q219 comparative was +7.2% so this marks another good [email protected] performance from a LFL perspective. Since the start of the year the group has opened one new pub and has sold five and reconfirmed that it intends to open 10-15 new pubs in the full year. In the year to date, it has spent £85m this year buying freeholds which is a ahead of our FY expectations of £60m. This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates As a result, it has guided to FY Net Debt to be between £780-£820m (3.6x ND/EBITDA at the midpoint), versus our expectations of c.£740m although we would note there will be a positive P&L impact from the higher level of freehold reversions. On outlook, JDW reiterated that it anticipates a trading outcome for this financial year in line with its previous expectations (GBYf £104.3m PBT pre-IFRS16). This is another good update from JDW given the tough comparative and it extends its long period of out performance of the market. However, there is probably not enough in today’s update to push the share price substantially higher given the group continues to trade at a premium to peers (CY P/E of 20.3x and 11x EV/EBITDA incl higher ND). Home… Page 3 22 Jan. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Sumo Group In-line pre-close Trading Update from Sumo Sumo Group released a pre-close Trading Update this morning ahead of FY19 results due on Recommendation: Buy April 1st in which it indicated an outturn “at least in line with market expectations”. The Closing Price: £1.97 statement adds that a number of significant contracts were secured towards the end of the year, underpinning forecasts for the current year. Cash balances as of December stood at Patrick O'Donnell +353-1-641 6013 £12.9m. Headcount increased 174 YoY to stand at total year-end employment of 766. [email protected] In our sector report issued last week we increased our PT on Sumo from £2.00 to £2.45 in recognition of Sumo’s positioning and an expectation of further dealflow. The statement this morning underpins that expectation, in our view. Home… Irish Economic View FTB supports form key part of party pledges on housing With the Irish general election campaign in full swing, political parties have tried to outdo Dermot O’Leary each other in their promises on the key issues of housing over the past few days. While there +353-1-641 9167 [email protected] are different features to each of the party proposals, the common feature is a promise to increase social housing provision dramatically over the coming years. The two largest parties – Fianna Fáil (FF) and Fine Gael (FG) – yesterday announced significant supports for home ownership and first-time buyers. FF will introduce a special savings scheme giving FTBs a 33% top-up on their saving for a home over a three-year time period. In addition, it will retain and expand the Help-to-Buy scheme, with the maximum This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates payout increasing to €25K (from €20K currently). FG continues to highlight the virtues of its Rebuilding Ireland package of support for the housing sector but pledged yesterday that it would also increase the HTB scheme payout, in its case up to €30K. These demand-side supports bring back memories of the 2000s period and will be inflationary to the market. While announcing supply-side initiatives is hardly a vote-getter for politicians, these must be part of solving the deficit in the housing market. The proposals announced over the past few days will be supportive for Irish housebuilders, but there is a risk that prospective FTBs may hold off on purchase in the very short-term prior to the introduction of these schemes.