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2015 4 Spectrum Contents | Zoom in | Zoom outFor navigation instructions please click here Search Issue | Next Page WHY NET NEUTRALITY NUCLEARPOWER’S GORDON MOORE TOP 10 ANALOGIES FAIL CROSSROADS ON MOORE’S LAW: TECH CARS Data is not like water Radical reactors “I just did a wild We drive Pagani’s or electricity get new attention extrapolation…” $2 million supercar P. 10 P. 12 P. 36 P. 46 FOR THE TECHNOLOGY INSIDER | 04.15 Long Moore’s live Law is Moore’s dead. Law. Contents | Zoom in | Zoom outFor navigation instructions please click here Search Issue | Next Page qM qMqM Previous Page | Contents | Zoom in | Zoom out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next Page qMqM Qmags THE WORLD’S NEWSSTAND® FROM MODEL TO APPTO APP The Application Builder provides you with Verify and Optimize your Designs with tools to easily design a custom interface ® for your multiphysics models. Use COMSOL Multiphysics COMSOL Server™ to distribute your apps to colleagues and customers worldwide. ™ NOW FEATURING APPLICATION BUILDER & COMSOL SERVER Visit comsol.com/release/5.0 Product Suite › COMSOL Multiphysics® › COMSOL Server™ ELECTRICAL MECHANICAL CHEMICAL INTERFACING › AC/DC Module › Heat Transfer Module › Chemical Reaction › LiveLink™ for MATLAB® › RF Module › Structural Mechanics Module Engineering Module › LiveLink™ for Excel® › Wave Optics Module › Nonlinear Structural Materials › Batteries & Fuel Cells › CAD Import Module › Ray Optics Module Module Module › Design Module › MEMS Module › Geomechanics Module › Electrodeposition Module › ECAD Import Module › Plasma Module › Fatigue Module › Corrosion Module › LiveLink™ for SOLIDWORKS® › Semiconductor Module › Multibody Dynamics Module › Electrochemistry Module › LiveLink™ for Inventor® › Acoustics Module › LiveLink™ for AutoCAD® MULTIPURPOSE › LiveLink™ for Revit® FLUID › Optimization Module › LiveLink™ for PTC® Creo® Parametric™ › CFD Module › Material Library › LiveLink™ for PTC® Pro/ENGINEER® › Mixer Module › Particle Tracing Module › LiveLink™ for Solid Edge® › Microfl uidics Module › File Import for CATIA® V5 › Subsurface Flow Module › Pipe Flow Module › Molecular Flow Module © Copyright 2014-2015 COMSOL. COMSOL, COMSOL Multiphysics, Capture the Concept, COMSOL Desktop, COMSOL Server, and LiveLink are either registered trademarks or trademarks of COMSOL AB. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners, and COMSOL AB and its subsidiaries and products are not affi liated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or supported by those trademark owners. For a list of such trademark owners, see www.comsol.com/trademarks qM qMqM Previous Page | Contents | Zoom in | Zoom out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next Page qMqM Qmags THE WORLD’S NEWSSTAND® qM qMqM Previous Page | Contents | Zoom in | Zoom out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next Page qMqM Qmags THE WORLD’S NEWSSTAND® FEATURES_04.15 SPECIAL REPORT 50 Years of MOORE’S LAW 27 The Long Good-bye 35 When Mead Met Moore Carver Mead talks about his first encounter with 28 The Multiple Lives the chip visionary. By Rachel Courtland of Moore’s Law 36 The Law That’s Why the rule reigned for half a century— Not a Law and what will happen next. By Chris Mack A conversation with Gordon E. Moore. 31 Transistors, 40 Moore’s Law Is by the Numbers Dying (and That A look at six decades of changes in price and production. By Dan Hutcheson Could Be Good) The slowing of transistor miniaturization 32 Efficiency’s will benefit many engineers. Brief Reprieve By Andrew “bunnie” Huang Performance gains are declining, but energy efficiency still has some life in it. By Jonathan Koomey & Samuel Naffziger PLUS 46 Top 10 Tech Cars 2015 The industry’s energy-efficiency efforts come up against cheap gas. By Lawrence UIrich On the Cover Photograph for IEEE Spectrum by Adam Voorhes COVER PHOTO STYLIST: ROBIN FINLAY ILLUSTRATION BY Serge Bloch SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG__________ | INTERNATIONAL | APR 2015 | 01 qM qMqM Previous Page | Contents | Zoom in | Zoom out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next Page qMqM Qmags THE WORLD’S NEWSSTAND® qM qMqM Previous Page | Contents | Zoom in | Zoom out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next Page qMqM Qmags THE WORLD’S NEWSSTAND® Who will industrialize the Internet of Things? You and NI will. From smart manufacturing to the smart grid, bridging the digital and physical worlds is one of the most signifi cant engineering opportunities we face today. NI, together with other visionary companies, is ensuring the superior design and performance of the increasingly complex systems that will fuel the Internet of Things and drive industrial adoption. Learn more at ni.com. ©2015 National Instruments. All rights reserved. LabVIEW, National Instruments, NI, and ni.com are trademarks of National Instruments. Other product and company names listed are trademarks or trade names of their respective companies. 19044 qM qMqM Previous Page | Contents | Zoom in | Zoom out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next Page qMqM Qmags THE WORLD’S NEWSSTAND® qM qMqM Previous Page | Contents | Zoom in | Zoom out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next Page qMqM Qmags THE WORLD’S NEWSSTAND® DEPARTMENTS_04.15DEPARTMENTS_01.13 0919 08 Online News Resources Opinion Spectrum.ieee.org Pumped Hydro Recharges Privacy Protector You in Your Internet of Things More Moore Japan is in position to spark a renais- Christopher Soghoian keeps a Should gadgets come with built-in See more of our coverage of the sance in an old energy-storage idea. watchful eye on tech for the ACLU. privacy and security measures? Moore’s Law semicentennial, By Peter Fairley By Philip E. Ross By Susan Hassler including an extended interview with Caltech’s Carver Mead 10 Net Neutrality’s Many Analogies 21 Reviews: Energy Harvesting 04 Back Story and an interactive timeline: 12 Nuclear Power’s Small Revolution 22 Hands On: Tapping an iPhone’s 05 Contributors http://spectrum.ieee.org/ 14 A Google for DNA Sensors 24 Numbers Don’t Lie 50yearsofmooreslaw__________ 16 The Big Picture: The Starry Night 60 And Now This… 26 Technically Speaking as an LED bike path Transportable Atomic Time ADDITIONAL RESOURCES Tech Insider / Webinars The Institute Available at spectrum.ieee.org/webinar Available on 6 April 2015 Modeling of Capacitive and Resistive Devices—9 April CONSUMER ELECTRONICS Inspired by the 2015 Consumer Electronics Get Your Head Out of the Cloud and Into Open-Source Software Security Show, this issue explores new applications designed to benefit humanity and and Compliance—Now Available on Demand save lives. One researcher is working on an augmented-reality system to help Get Ready for the Internet of Things: Speed Innovation With Continuous children with autism learn to socialize, while others are developing technology Engineering for Electronics—Now Available on Demand to prevent distracted driving. Open-Source Software Security—Mitigating Risks From Development, Integration, Distribution, and Deployment—Now Available on Demand ASSISTIVE TECHNOLOGY Many of today’s consumer electronics can be MASTER BOND RESOURCE LIBRARY used to help people with disabilities perform everyday tasks with much greater http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/master-bond-resource-library ease. Just ask IEEE Member Lama Nachman, who recently helped upgrade the NEW PRODUCT RELEASE LIBRARY device that Stephen Hawking uses to communicate with others. http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/new-product-release-library WHITE PAPERS A BURGEONING FIELD More and more companies are looking for engineers http://spectrum.ieee.org/whitepapers with experience in 3-D printing and additive manufacturing. Learn what it takes to get in on the ground floor. IEEE SPECTRUM (ISSN 0018-9235) is published monthly by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. All rights reserved. © 2015 by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., 3 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10016-5997, U.S.A. Volume No. 52, issue No. 4, International edition. The editorial content of IEEE Spectrum magazine does not represent official positions of the IEEE or its organizational units. Canadian Post International Publications Mail (Canadian Distribution) Sales Agreement No. 40013087. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: Circulation Department, IEEE Spectrum, Box 1051, Fort Erie, ON L2A 6C7. Cable address: ITRIPLEE. Fax: +1 212 419 7570. INTERNET: [email protected]._______ ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTIONS: IEEE Members: $21.40 included in dues. Libraries/institutions: $399. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to IEEE Spectrum, c/o Coding Department, IEEE Service Center, 445 Hoes Lane, Box 1331, Piscataway, NJ 08855. Periodicals postage paid at New York,NY, and additional mailing offices. Canadian GST #125634188. Printed at 120 Donnelley Dr., Glasgow, KY 42141-1060, U.S.A. IEEE Spectrum circulation is audited by BPA Worldwide. IEEE Spectrum is a member of the Association of Business Information & Media Companies, the Association of Magazine Media, and FROM LEFT: EMILY COOPER; UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING; INTEL Association Media & Publishing. IEEE prohibits discrimination, harassment, and bullying. For more information, visit http://www.ieee.org/web/aboutus/whatis/policies/p9-26.html. SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG__________ | INTERNATIONAL | APR 2015 | 03 qM qMqM Previous Page | Contents | Zoom in | Zoom out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next Page qMqM Qmags THE WORLD’S NEWSSTAND® qM qMqM Previous Page | Contents | Zoom in | Zoom out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Next Page qMqM Qmags THE WORLD’S NEWSSTAND® BACK STORY_ EDITOR IN CHIEF Susan Hassler, [email protected]_______ EXECUTIVE EDITOR Glenn
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