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Kazakhstan's Devaluation Implications for Frontier Currencies

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Kazakhstan's Devaluation Implications for Frontier Currencies Update Economics Research 20 August 2015 Economics Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia Oleg Kouzmin +7 (495) 258-7770 x4506 [email protected] Yvonne Mhango +27 (11) 750-1488 [email protected] Kazakhstan’s devaluation Daniel Salter +44 (203) 379-7824 x8224 Implications for frontier currencies [email protected] Kazakhstan has devalued the tenge by 26% to KZT253/$, which Charles Robertson is very close to our initial KZT260/$ target. We think devaluation +44 (203) 379-7835 x8235 [email protected] is the most likely outcome for the Nigerian naira, but on a smaller (15-20%) scale; we forecast NGN230/$ by end-2015. Kazakhstan devalues the tenge to KZT253/$, close to our target Figure 1: Exchange rates: NGN/$ and KZT/$ KZT NGN We have flagged devaluation risks in our previous reports, most recently Devaluation 260 risks remain high dated 22 April, and this week the Kazakh authorities weakened the 240 tenge by 26% vs the dollar in two steps, from KZT188/$ to KZT253/$. This is very close 220 to our initial KZT260/$ target, and the largest devaluation in the country since 1998. 200 180 We maintain our KZT260/$ target for the mid-term 160 140 120 We estimate KZT260/$ as a fair rate if oil is at $50-60/bl in the mid-term (next 6-12 100 months). We maintain this as our base-case forecast, assuming that the currency Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 could deviate by 5-7% from our target on either side as the National Bank of Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Kazakhstan (NBK) recently announced greater FX flexibility. We also note that we Source: Bloomberg could see a slightly weaker currency in the next few months if the oil price remains below $50/bl. However, if the oil price stays in the $40-50/bl range in the next 6-12 months, the tenge could move to KZT300/$. At a $40/bl oil price in the next 12 Figure 2: Regional currencies vs $, months, it could be KZT320/$, on our estimates. 1 Jan 2014 = 100 RUB KZT GEL Could we see a tenge-style devaluation in Nigeria? AZN AMD UAH BYR We think the most likely outcome for Nigeria is a slightly smaller (15-20%) move than 120 the tenge devaluation, and a managed float, over a free float, from a fixed peg today. Investors see parallels between Nigeria and Kazakhstan because they are both big 100 oil exporters and their currencies have followed similar trajectories in recent years 80 (see Figure 1). Most notably, both countries’ central banks devalued their currencies within 10 weeks of each other in 2008-2009. The plummeting oil price triggered both 60 devaluations. The naira is 20% overvalued, according to our real effective exchange rate analysis (see our 13 July note, Sub-Saharan Africa’s currencies: Which are 40 most vulnerable?). That implies the exchange rate should be at c. NGN240/$. 20 However, the central bank’s fixation on a strong naira, which is evident from the succession of restrictive policies it has put in place over the past year to defend the Jul-14 Jul-15 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jan-14 Jan-15 naira, leads us to believe that any devaluation is likely to fall short of the naira’s fair Source: Bloomberg value. Hence our NGN230/$ view at YE15. For Georgia, we keep GEL2.45/$ as the end-2015 target At the start of this year the Georgian lari was already hurt by weaker oil, mainly via smaller exports to oil countries and lower remittances from Russia, coming closer to GEL2.35/$ in May 2015. Recent months have brought the lari some relief, with the exchange rate stabilising in the GEL2.25-2.33/$ range, which is very close to the lari’s current fair value, on our estimates. In our view, the potential upside for the currency at this stage could be limited. We cautiously keep our end-2015 GEL2.45/$ forecast. Important disclosures are found at the Disclosures Appendix. Communicated by Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited, regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission, which together with non-US affiliates operates outside of the USA under the brand name of Renaissance Capital. Renaissance Capital Kazakhstan’s devaluation and local 20 August 2015 implications Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia Kazakhstan has devalued the tenge to KZT253/$, which is close to our KZT260/$ target. We have flagged the devaluation risks numerous times and this week the Kazakh authorities weakened the tenge by 26% vs the dollar in two steps, from KZT188/$ to KZT253/$. This is very close to our initial KZT260/$ target, and the largest devaluation in the country since 1998. We expect greater FX flexibility; though doubt the fast introduction of a truly free- floating exchange rate regime. The devaluation was done via moving to a flexible exchange rate. We believe the NBK has let the market find an equilibrium level for the tenge (so we could only have a free floating regime for a short time), but is likely to move to a managed floating exchange rate regime afterwards (in a few days or slightly longer – this would depend on how fast the market stabilises). So we do not expect to see a free floating exchange rate regime in the mid-term, but more likely a managed floating exchange rate regime as Russia had in January 2009-1H13. Alternatively, the authorities could impose a rule restricting currency movement by no more than a limited percentage vs the official exchange rate of the previous day. We suggest that many variants are plausible – but this still implies higher exchange rate volatility and flexibility than has previously been the case. Figure 3: KZT/$ 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Bloomberg We keep our KZT260/$ target for the mid-term. We estimate KZT260/$ as a fair rate for oil staying in the $50-60/bl range in the mid-term (next 6-12 months). We maintain it as our base-case forecast, assuming that the currency could deviate by 5-7% from our target on either side as the NBK recently announced greater FX flexibility. We also note that we could see slightly weaker currency in the next few months if the oil price remains below the $50/bl level. If oil prices of below $50/bl are sustainable in the mid-term, the tenge could be weaker. If oil prices stay in the $40-50/bl range in the next 6-12 months, the tenge could move to KZT300/$. At $40/bl oil in the next 12 months, it could be KZT320/$, on our estimates. Finally, if oil weakens further and stays in the $30-40/bl range in the next 12 months, we could see significant devaluations in Russia and Kazakhstan (theoretically, the rouble could go weaker than RUB80-90/$ and the tenge weaker than KZT375/$) – but obviously we do not think these scenarios are likely to happen. 2 Renaissance Capital 20 August 2015 Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia Figure 4: Regional currencies vs $, 1 January 2014 = 100 RUB KZT GEL AZN AMD UAH BYR 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Jul-14 Jul-15 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Bloomberg We maintain our 0.7% GDP growth call for 2015. We expect GDP growth to decelerate to c. 0% YoY in 2H15 after 1.7% YoY in 1H15. Any devaluation is a huge shock for the public and businesses, which are likely to tame spending, as they did after the previous devaluation in February 2014. This brings us to a 0.7% FY15E GDP growth target. In 2016, we would expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.8% with oil recovering closer to $60/bl. We expect annual inflation to double in the next 6-9 months, but stay in single digits. We expect inflation to accelerate to 7.1% YoY by end-2015 and peak at 8.4% YoY in 1H16, which compares with 3.9% YoY in July 2015. These are single digits, but this is what we forecast based on the previous inflation, exchange rate and growth trajectories. Figure 5: Inflation in Kazakhstan, % YoY 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Agency of Statistics of Kazakhstan 3 Renaissance Capital Nigeria vs Kazakhstan in focus 20 August 2015 Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia Why do investors compare Nigeria with Kazakhstan? Two parallels that are drawn between Nigeria and Kazakhstan are that they are both big oil exporters and their currencies have followed similar trajectories in recent years (see Figure 1). Most notably, both countries’ central banks devalued their currencies within 10 weeks of each other in 2008-2009; Kazakhstan actually devalued its currency after Nigeria. The plummeting oil price triggered both devaluations. The last time Kazakhstan devalued the tenge – by 20% in February 2014 – Nigeria did not follow suit, because the oil price was well supported at the time. We note that the context of the tenge devaluation in February 2014 was that Kazakhstan had joined the customs union that includes Russia, which has a similar economy, and with the rouble weakening, Kazakhstan became worried about Dutch disease. This time around a plummeting oil price has triggered the tenge devaluation and we believe will do the same in Nigeria, either via a sharp one-off move or multiple step changes.
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