Update Economics Research 20 August 2015

Economics Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia

Oleg Kouzmin +7 (495) 258-7770 x4506 [email protected]

Yvonne Mhango +27 (11) 750-1488 [email protected] Kazakhstan’s devaluation Daniel Salter +44 (203) 379-7824 x8224 Implications for frontier currencies [email protected]

Kazakhstan has devalued the tenge by 26% to KZT253/$, which Charles Robertson is very close to our initial KZT260/$ target. We think devaluation +44 (203) 379-7835 x8235 [email protected] is the most likely outcome for the Nigerian naira, but on a smaller (15-20%) scale; we forecast NGN230/$ by end-2015.

Kazakhstan devalues the tenge to KZT253/$, close to our target Figure 1: Exchange rates: NGN/$ and KZT/$ KZT NGN We have flagged devaluation risks in our previous reports, most recently Devaluation 260 risks remain high dated 22 April, and this week the Kazakh authorities weakened the 240 tenge by 26% vs the dollar in two steps, from KZT188/$ to KZT253/$. This is very close 220 to our initial KZT260/$ target, and the largest devaluation in the country since 1998. 200 180 We maintain our KZT260/$ target for the mid-term 160 140 120 We estimate KZT260/$ as a fair rate if oil is at $50-60/bl in the mid-term (next 6-12 100 months). We maintain this as our base-case forecast, assuming that the currency Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15

could deviate by 5-7% from our target on either side as the National Bank of Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Kazakhstan (NBK) recently announced greater FX flexibility. We also note that we

Source: Bloomberg could see a slightly weaker currency in the next few months if the oil price remains

below $50/bl. However, if the oil price stays in the $40-50/bl range in the next 6-12 months, the tenge could move to KZT300/$. At a $40/bl oil price in the next 12 Figure 2: Regional currencies vs $, months, it could be KZT320/$, on our estimates. 1 Jan 2014 = 100

RUB KZT GEL Could we see a tenge-style devaluation in Nigeria? AZN AMD UAH BYR We think the most likely outcome for Nigeria is a slightly smaller (15-20%) move than 120 the tenge devaluation, and a managed float, over a free float, from a fixed peg today. Investors see parallels between Nigeria and Kazakhstan because they are both big 100 oil exporters and their currencies have followed similar trajectories in recent years 80 (see Figure 1). Most notably, both countries’ central banks devalued their currencies within 10 weeks of each other in 2008-2009. The plummeting oil price triggered both 60 devaluations. The naira is 20% overvalued, according to our real effective exchange rate analysis (see our 13 July note, Sub-Saharan Africa’s currencies: Which are 40 most vulnerable?). That implies the exchange rate should be at c. NGN240/$. 20 However, the central bank’s fixation on a strong naira, which is evident from the

succession of restrictive policies it has put in place over the past year to defend the Jul-14 Jul-15 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jan-14 Jan-15 naira, leads us to believe that any devaluation is likely to fall short of the naira’s fair Source: Bloomberg value. Hence our NGN230/$ view at YE15.

For Georgia, we keep GEL2.45/$ as the end-2015 target

At the start of this year the Georgian lari was already hurt by weaker oil, mainly via smaller exports to oil countries and lower remittances from Russia, coming closer to GEL2.35/$ in May 2015. Recent months have brought the lari some relief, with the exchange rate stabilising in the GEL2.25-2.33/$ range, which is very close to the lari’s current fair value, on our estimates. In our view, the potential upside for the currency at this stage could be limited. We cautiously keep our end-2015 GEL2.45/$ forecast.

Important disclosures are found at the Disclosures Appendix. Communicated by Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited, regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission, which together with non-US affiliates operates outside of the USA under the brand name of Renaissance Capital.

Renaissance Capital Kazakhstan’s devaluation and local 20 August 2015 implications Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia

Kazakhstan has devalued the tenge to KZT253/$, which is close to our KZT260/$ target. We have flagged the devaluation risks numerous times and this week the Kazakh authorities weakened the tenge by 26% vs the dollar in two steps, from KZT188/$ to KZT253/$. This is very close to our initial KZT260/$ target, and the largest devaluation in the country since 1998.

We expect greater FX flexibility; though doubt the fast introduction of a truly free- floating exchange rate regime. The devaluation was done via moving to a flexible exchange rate. We believe the NBK has let the market find an equilibrium level for the tenge (so we could only have a free floating regime for a short time), but is likely to move to a managed floating exchange rate regime afterwards (in a few days or slightly longer – this would depend on how fast the market stabilises). So we do not expect to see a free floating exchange rate regime in the mid-term, but more likely a managed floating exchange rate regime as Russia had in January 2009-1H13. Alternatively, the authorities could impose a rule restricting currency movement by no more than a limited percentage vs the official exchange rate of the previous day. We suggest that many variants are plausible – but this still implies higher exchange rate volatility and flexibility than has previously been the case.

Figure 3: KZT/$ 300

250

200

150

100

50

0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Bloomberg

We keep our KZT260/$ target for the mid-term. We estimate KZT260/$ as a fair rate for oil staying in the $50-60/bl range in the mid-term (next 6-12 months). We maintain it as our base-case forecast, assuming that the currency could deviate by 5-7% from our target on either side as the NBK recently announced greater FX flexibility. We also note that we could see slightly weaker currency in the next few months if the oil price remains below the $50/bl level.

If oil prices of below $50/bl are sustainable in the mid-term, the tenge could be weaker. If oil prices stay in the $40-50/bl range in the next 6-12 months, the tenge could move to KZT300/$. At $40/bl oil in the next 12 months, it could be KZT320/$, on our estimates. Finally, if oil weakens further and stays in the $30-40/bl range in the next 12 months, we could see significant devaluations in Russia and Kazakhstan (theoretically, the rouble could go weaker than RUB80-90/$ and the tenge weaker than KZT375/$) – but obviously we do not think these scenarios are likely to happen.

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Figure 4: Regional currencies vs $, 1 January 2014 = 100 RUB KZT GEL AZN AMD UAH BYR 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Jul-14 Jul-15 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jan-14 Jan-15

Source: Bloomberg

We maintain our 0.7% GDP growth call for 2015. We expect GDP growth to decelerate to c. 0% YoY in 2H15 after 1.7% YoY in 1H15. Any devaluation is a huge shock for the public and businesses, which are likely to tame spending, as they did after the previous devaluation in February 2014. This brings us to a 0.7% FY15E GDP growth target. In 2016, we would expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.8% with oil recovering closer to $60/bl.

We expect annual inflation to double in the next 6-9 months, but stay in single digits. We expect inflation to accelerate to 7.1% YoY by end-2015 and peak at 8.4% YoY in 1H16, which compares with 3.9% YoY in July 2015. These are single digits, but this is what we forecast based on the previous inflation, exchange rate and growth trajectories.

Figure 5: Inflation in Kazakhstan, % YoY 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Source: Agency of Statistics of Kazakhstan

3 Renaissance Capital Nigeria vs Kazakhstan in focus 20 August 2015

Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia

Why do investors compare Nigeria with Kazakhstan? Two parallels that are drawn between Nigeria and Kazakhstan are that they are both big oil exporters and their currencies have followed similar trajectories in recent years (see Figure 1). Most notably, both countries’ central banks devalued their currencies within 10 weeks of each other in 2008-2009; Kazakhstan actually devalued its currency after Nigeria. The plummeting oil price triggered both devaluations.

The last time Kazakhstan devalued the tenge – by 20% in February 2014 – Nigeria did not follow suit, because the oil price was well supported at the time. We note that the context of the tenge devaluation in February 2014 was that Kazakhstan had joined the customs union that includes Russia, which has a similar economy, and with the rouble weakening, Kazakhstan became worried about Dutch disease. This time around a plummeting oil price has triggered the tenge devaluation and we believe will do the same in Nigeria, either via a sharp one-off move or multiple step changes.

We think the most likely outcome for Nigeria is a slightly smaller (15-20%) move, and a managed float, over a free float. The naira is 20% overvalued, according to our real effective exchange rate analysis (see our 13 July note, Sub-Saharan Africa’s currencies: Which are most vulnerable?). This implies that the exchange rate should be at c. NGN240/$. However, the central bank’s fixation on a strong naira, which is evident from the succession of restrictive policies (including tightening of monetary policy and FX rules, as well as the de facto ban of 41 imports) it has put in place over the past year, to defend the naira, leads us to believe that any devaluation is likely to fall short of the naira’s fair value. Hence our NGN230/$ view at YE15.

Risk scenario: The slide in the oil price (below $50/bl) raises the risk of a sharp one-off move, over a more gradual depreciation, and it also increases the risk of a bigger than 15% depreciation before YE15.

Managed float vs free float. We gathered from our most recent discussion with the Central Bank of Nigeria that a move to a managed float, from the current fixed peg, is most likely following an adjustment in the exchange rate. We believe a free float is a low probability outcome. However, if an oil price of below $50/bl proves to be durable, the more difficult it will become for the central bank to avoid a free float.

4 Renaissance Capital Equity strategy 20 August 2015

Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia

A currency adjustment in Kazakhstan was one of the triggers we were looking at to upgrade Kazakh equities – with this morning’s 22% devaluation taking the tenge’s depreciation to 25% this week (following yesterday’s 5% move) the currency is now trading within a whisker of our Russia/CIS economist Oleg Kouzmin’s long-standing target of KZT260/$.

The questions to ask now are:

Is the devaluation enough?

As we see from Oleg Kouzmin’s commentary, assuming oil in a $50-60/bl range, KZT260/$ remains his base case. However, if oil was to stay in the $40-50/bl range, he sees potential for the tenge to weaken further, to around KZT300/$ (KZT320/$ at $40/bl oil).

With Brent currently trading at $45/bl, it would therefore appear that risks to the tenge are still skewed towards the weaker side. We would need to see oil recover to $50/bl or above to make us more inclined to recommend an overweight on Kazakhstan.

A few graphs below put the moves in oil exporting countries in context:

Figure 6: Kazakh tenge vs $ (lhs) and RUB (rhs)

KZT (lhs) RUBKZT (rhs)

260 KZT weak 5.5 250 240 5.0 230 220 4.5 210 4.0 200 190 3.5 180 170 KZT strong 3.0 160 150 2.5 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

. If Kazakhstan was to fully replicate Russia’s rouble decline (not our base case), we would be looking at KZT300/RUB (after taking in to account the 16% tenge devaluation of 1Q14).

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Figure 7: Oil producer currencies vs the dollar (rebased to 100 in June 2014) 110

100

Saudi 90 Malaysia Azerbaijan 80 Russia Kazakhstan Brazil 70 Canada Nigeria 60 Angola Colombia

50 Indonesia

40 Jul-14 Jul-15 Apr-15 Oct-14 Jun-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Nov-14 Dec-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Aug-15 Sep-15 May-15

Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

. Kazakhstan’s devaluation this week is remarkably similar to Azerbaijan’s move in 1Q15, but still lags the move in the rouble – but it is getting close to the moves seen in Brazil and Colombia.

. Nigeria stands out as having a currency yet to fully adjust. Our SSA economist Yvonne Mhango continues to highlight the need for Nigeria to adjust the currency downwards – she believes the naira is around 20% overvalued and ought to trade at around NGN240/$ (her NGN230/$ year-end target assumes the central bank continues to keep the naira supported). However, the longer the oil price remains sub-$50/bl, and the longer Nigeria’s central bank holds off from adjusting the currency, it is this strategist (Daniel Salter)’s view that the risks become larger of a more significant devaluation.

. We assume that Saudi Arabia will spend reserves / borrow to maintain its peg (which it can afford to do for many more years – albeit not indefinitely).

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Figure 8: Oil price moves in local currency (rebased to $115/bl equivalent in June 2014) 120

110

100 Saudi Malaysia 90 Azerbaijan Russia 80 Kazakhstan Brazil 70 Canada Nigeria

60 Angola Colombia

50 Indonesia

40 Jul-14 Jul-15 Apr-15 Oct-14 Jun-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Nov-14 Dec-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Aug-15 Sep-15 May-15

Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

. As measured in local currency terms, Kazakhstan’s devaluation means that in tenge terms, the oil price is now equivalent to $62.5/bl.

. Russia’s much weaker rouble means that in rouble equivalent terms, the oil price is closer to $90/bl, easing pressure on the Russian budget and current account.

. Nigeria currently sees an oil price of just $55/bl equivalent in naira terms given the modest move in the naira to date – a big impact on the budget and current account.

. Saudi Arabia sees an oil price of $45/bl equivalent in riyal terms, i.e. spot oil, given the currency peg – Saudi Arabia sees the full impact of lower oil on its budget and current account, draining FX reserves and causing Saudi Arabia to return to the debt markets.

What about the banks?

Time will tell what the impact on the Kazakh banks (especially the smaller banks) should be: we recall that Kazakhstan’s 1Q14 devaluation was closely followed by an (SMS message triggered) deposit run on three mid-size banks.

Our banking analyst Armen Gasparyan highlights that historically Halyk Savings Bank has been the net winner in any such transition (flight to safety, good for margins), and sees no reason for time to be any different – the bank keeps no open currency position, it doesn’t lend in dollars to retail customers, and all dollar lending is to exporters (or their suppliers) so the devaluation itself should have a relatively limited impact on asset quality. He also highlights counter-cyclical state policies in Kazakhstan, with sizeable investment programmes supporting credit demand.

That said, there is likely to be a negative economic impact: Oleg Kouzmin expects zero growth in 2H15, and commodity producers may in any case find themselves under pressure from falling product prices, both of which present some risk to asset quality,

7 Renaissance Capital 20 August 2015

Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia though Halyk reported five quarters of subdued or negative cost of risk since 2014, despite the 1Q14 devaluation.

Conclusion

. Kazakhstan’s currency move is an important one, but so long as oil remains below $50/bl, tenge risks remain to the weaker side, and we see no rush to move overweight. With oil above $50/bl, we could be more confident.

. The obvious export names that could potentially benefit from a weaker tenge include KazMunaiGas E&P, Nostrum Oil & Gas and KAZ Minerals. However, our oil & gas analyst Ildar Davletshin highlights that most of the costs of the oil & gas companies are dollarised, including capex and even salaries, and expects the impact to be fairly muted.

. In the domestic sectors in Kazakhstan:

1. Our telco analyst Alex Kazbegi sees value in K-Cell (KCEL LI, BUY, CP KZT1,474/ GDR, TP KZT2,213/GDR) with the currency at current levels (less so with a tenge at KZT300/$ and above). He is raising a risk to generous 100% dividend payment from two potential acquisitions; however, as TeliaSonera (the majority owner of K-Cell) is the beneficiary of both cash flows, he believes the chances for simultaneous acquisitions and a dividend cut is rather low.

Figure 9: K-Cell summary valuation data 2016 70% Dividend payout of 100% Dividend payout of 70% Dividend payout of 100% Dividend payout of 2015 dividends 2015 dividends 2015 dividends 2015 dividends KZT/$ average rate 300 300 250 250 Dividends 112.5 159.2 135.8 192.2 P/E 7.4 7.5 6.4 6.4 EV/EBITDA* 4.47 4.54 3.67 3.74 Dividend yield 9.1% 12.9% 11.0% 15.6%

Note: *Under assumption K-Cell pays TeliaSonera KZT68bn during 2016 for 2 companies they may buy from them -- increases 2016 ND by KZT70bn Source: Renaissance Capital estimates

2. Halyk Savings Bank (HSBK LI, HOLD, CP $6.75, TP $9.6) is likely to emerge the main beneficiary from the banks of any flight to quality. Armen Gasparyan highlights Halyk’s 1) lower earnings sensitivity to currency depreciation vs Georgian banks; 2) 6-8% dividend yield; 3) counter-cyclical state policies in Kazakhstan, with sizeable investment programmes supporting credit demand. Credit quality may suffer somewhat if the economy slows in 2H as Oleg Kouzmin expects, but post crisis Kazakh corporates are better prepared to any currency shocks (vs in 2008) as evidenced by 1Q14 devaluation (and the bank keeps no open currency position, it doesn’t lend in dollars to retail customers, and all dollar lending is to exporters (or their suppliers) so the devaluation itself should have a relatively limited impact on asset quality. Halyk’s 6-8% dividend yield is supportive – although trading on 0.8x 12MF P/B, investors may be inclined to look at Sberbank’s 0.7x multiple and much higher liquidity within the CIS space.

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3. Finally, our utilities analyst Vladimir Sklyar highlights ENEL Russia (ENRU RX, HOLD, CP RUB0.83, TP RUB0.95) as a potential beneficiary: with 60% of capacity being coal-fired at a single plant, coal coming from the Ekibastusz basin of Kazakhstan, and payment for coal being in Kazakh tenge (transportation is in roubles), Enel has faced a significant margin squeeze over the past 12 months as the Russian currency devalued vs a firm tenge. As the tenge devalues, he thinks the restoration of Enel Russia margins is in sight.

. Nigeria stands out as having a currency yet to fully adjust – our house view for the naira is NGN230/$ by year-end, but with risks to the weaker side if oil stays sub-$50/bl.

9 Renaissance Capital Key economic forecasts: Kazakhstan 20 August 2015

Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia

Figure 10: Kazakhstan – key economic indicators Ratings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/BBB/BBB+ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Activity Real GDP (% YoY) 9.3 9.6 9.7 10.6 8.9 3.3 1.2 7.3 7.5 5.0 6.0 4.0 0.7 2.8 Private consumption (% YoY) 7.4 9.2 11.1 12.7 10.9 6.3 0.6 11.8 10.9 11.0 10.1 3.1 -1.2 3.2 Government consumption (% YoY) 8.9 10.6 10.8 7.3 14.0 4.3 1.0 2.7 11.3 13.2 1.0 7.5 6.8 5.0 Investment (% YoY) 8.0 10.9 34.7 20.3 17.3 1.0 -0.8 3.8 3.9 9.1 9.9 3.5 1.9 3.4 Industrial production (% YoY) 7.8 11.7 3.1 7.1 6.2 2.6 2.7 9.6 3.8 0.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 2.1 Unemployment rate year-end (%) 8.8 8.4 8.1 7.8 7.3 6.6 6.6 5.8 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.5 5.3 Nominal GDP (KZTbn) 4,612 5,870 7,591 10,214 12,850 16,053 17,008 21,816 27,571 30,347 33,521 37,201 39,522 43,879 Nominal GDP (EURbn) 27.0 35.0 46.0 64.7 76.5 90.7 82.7 112 134 157 166 156 179 161 Nominal GDP ($bn) 30.8 43.2 57.1 81.0 105 133 115 148 188 204 220 207 188 172 Population (mn) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 17,2 17.4 17.7 17.9 GDP per capita ($) 2,068 2,874 3,771 5,292 6,772 8,514 7,165 9,070 11,357 12,119 12,933 11,918 10,633 9,613 Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 28.0 27.0 28.3 30.9 28.2 31.7 27.0 27.4 28.6 25.9 26 28 29 29 Stock of bank credit to corporate/household 21.2 25.2 38.9 54.7 69.0 57.5 56.7 41.6 37.9 38.4 39.8 40.3 46.3 45.2 sector (% of GDP) Loan to deposit ratio % 133 117 179 181 220 201 164 133 134 137 112 103 105 106 Prices

CPI (average % YoY) 6.5 7.1 7.5 8.6 10.7 17.3 7.3 7.1 8.4 5.1 5.8 6.7 5.5 8.0 CPI (end-year % YoY) 6.8 6.7 7.6 8.4 18.8 9.5 6.2 7.8 7.4 6.0 4.8 7.4 7.1 7.7 PPI (average % YoY) 9.3 16.9 23.7 18.8 12.1 38.4 -20.1 27.0 27.3 3.8 -0.3 9.6 -16.5 18.1 Wage rates (% YoY, nominal) 13.8 22.5 20.2 21.0 28.2 16.4 10.9 14.7 15.8 13.9 6.8 10.6 12.3 11.4 Fiscal balance

Consolidated government balance (% of GDP) 0.0 -0.3 0.6 0.8 -1.7 -2.1 -3.1 -2.5 -2.1 -3.0 -2.1 -2.2 -2.5 -2.2 Total public debt (% of GDP) 15.0 18.3 10.3 12.0 7.7 9.8 16.5 17.5 12.4 12.7 13.2 14.2 14.7 14.8 External balance

Exports ($bn) 13.2 20.6 28.3 34.8 47.8 72.0 43.9 61.4 85.2 87 83 79 46 66 Imports ($bn) 9.6 13.8 18.0 21.3 32.8 38.4 28.9 32.9 40.3 49 50 43 31 37 Trade balance ($bn) 3.7 6.8 10.3 13.5 15.0 33.6 15.0 28.5 44.8 38 34 36 15 29 Trade balance (% of GDP) 11.9 15.7 18.1 16.7 14.3 25.2 13.0 19.2 23.8 19 15 17 8 17 Current account balance ($bn) -0.3 0.3 -1.1 -2.0 -2.0 6.3 -4.1 1.4 10.2 0.6 1.1 4.6 -7.2 0.5 Current account balance (% of GDP) -0.9 0.8 -1.8 -2.5 -1.9 4.7 -3.6 0.9 5.4 0.3 0.5 2.2 -3.8 0.3 Net FDI ($bn) 2.2 8.3 2.5 7.6 12.0 16.8 14.3 7.5 13.8 13.7 10.0 7.6 8.8 12.0 Net FDI (% of GDP) 7.2 19.2 4.4 9.4 11.4 12.6 12.4 5.1 7.3 6.7 4.5 3.7 4.7 7.0 Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 6.3 20.0 2.5 6.9 9.5 17.3 8.8 6.0 12.8 7.0 5.0 5.9 0.9 7.3 Exports (% YoY, value) 32 56 37 23 37 50 -39 40 39 2 -4 -5 -42 43 Imports (% YoY, value) 19 45 30 18 54 17 -25 14 23 22 1 -13 -29 21 Foreign exchange reserves ($bn) 9 14 15 33 39 47 47 59 73 86 96 103 93 84 Import cover (months of merchandise imports) 5.3 7.4 4.0 10.0 5.7 5.4 8.3 9.2 7.5 5.4 23.1 28.3 36.0 27.0 Debt indicators

Gross external debt ($bn) 22.9 32.7 43.4 74.0 96.9 108 113 118 125 137 149 157 150 153 Gross external debt (% of GDP) 74 76 76 91 92 81 98 80 67 67 67 76 78 90 Gross external debt (% of exports) 173 159 153 213 203 150 257 193 147 158 178 198 325 232 Total debt service ($bn) 5 8 11 12 25 32 31 21 23 22 25 26 25 26 Total debt service (% of GDP) 17 19 19 15 24 24 26 14 12 11 11 12 13 15 Total debt service (% of exports) 40 40 39 34 53 44 69 34 26 25 29 32 54 39 Interest & exchange rates

Broad money supply (% YoY) 39.1 68.1 30.2 85.7 25.7 30.6 15.5 23.1 21.3 7.3 1.6 -8.2 -12.5 7.5 3-month interest rate (KAZPRIME avg %) na na na 5.4 7.5 8.8 9.6 2.0 1.8 2.5 5.0 6.8 9.5 10.0 3-month interest rate spread over $-Libor (ppt) - - - 0.2 2.2 5.9 9.0 1.7 1.5 2.1 4.7 6.6 8.5 9.0 NBK refinancing rate (% year-end) 7.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 11.0 10.5 7.0 7.5 7.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.0 7.0 1-year yield (avg %) 6.4 5.1 3.6 2.8 8.5 7.8 6.6 3.2 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.1 4.5 5.0 10-year yield (avg %) 9.0 6.6 6.1 4.8 5.1 6.0 7.1 6.9 6.2 5.7 5.8 6.3 7.3 8.0 Exchange rate (KZT/EUR) year-end 181 176 158 167 176 168 213 197 192 199 212 225 273 275 Exchange rate (KZT/EUR) annual average 169 169 165 158 168 177 206 196 205 192 202 239 221 273 Exchange rate (KZT/$) year-end 144 130 134 127 121 121 148 147 148 151 154 182 260 250 Exchange rate (KZT/$) annual average 150 136 133 126 123 120 148 147 147 149 152 179 210 255 Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan, Agency of Statistics of Kazakhstan, Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan, World Bank, IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates

10 Renaissance Capital Key economic forecasts: Georgia 20 August 2015

Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia

Figure 11: Georgia – key economic indicators Ratings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/BB-/BB- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Activity

Real GDP (% YoY) 5.9 9.6 9.4 12.3 2.3 -3.8 6.3 7.2 6.1 3.3 4.8 2.2 4.3 Industrial production (% YoY) 13.0 39.2 38.8 7.4 -7.6 -11.6 17.9 23.5 7.2 2.7 3.8 1.4 3.5 Unemployment rate (% YE) 12.6 13.8 13.6 13.3 16.5 16.9 16.3 15.1 15.0 15.0 14.9 15.2 15.0 Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 9.8 11.6 13.8 17.0 19.1 18.0 20.7 24.3 26.1 26.8 29.0 30.7 33.8 Nominal GDP ($bn) 5.1 6.4 7.8 12.4 12.8 10.8 11.6 14.4 15.8 16.1 16.5 13.7 14.4 Population (mn) 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 GDP per capita ($) 1,191 1,484 1,765 2,316 2,921 2,456 2,620 3,217 3,530 3,600 3,682 3,065 3,241 Gross national saving (% of GDP) 22.4 22.5 14.9 14.4 5.1 2.6 11.6 13.6 18.1 19.4 18.7 20.6 21.8 Loans to non-banking sector (GELbn) 0.9 1.7 2.6 4.4 5.8 5.0 6.0 7.5 8.4 10.0 11.9 14.3 16.7 Stock of bank credit to corporate/household sector (% of GDP) 10 15 19 26 30 28 29 31 32 37 41 47 51 Deposits (GELbn) 0.8 1.4 2.1 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.8 7.4 8.2 10.3 11.7 13.8 15.9 Loan to deposit ratio (%) 115 123 124 125 151 120 104 102 102 97 102 104 105 Prices CPI (average % YoY) 5.8 8.2 9.2 9.2 10.0 1.7 7.1 8.5 -0.9 -0.6 3.1 3.9 5.8 CPI (year-end, % YoY) 7.2 6.2 8.8 11.0 5.5 3.0 11.2 2.0 -1.4 2.4 2.0 6.3 5.6 Nominal wages (GEL) 157 204 278 368 535 557 598 636 712 749 793 831 871 Wage rate (% YoY nominal) 24 30 36 32 45 4 7 6 12 5 6 5 5 Fiscal balance (% of GDP)

Consolidated government balance 0.8 1.4 2.7 0.3 -2.0 -6.5 -4.5 -0.9 -2.0 -2.7 -3.7 -3.0 -2.8 Consolidated primary balance 2.4 2.4 3.4 0.9 -1.4 -5.6 -3.5 0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 Total public debt (central govt) 44 35 23 19 24 31 34 30 31 35 38 42 45 External balance

Exports ($mn) 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 4.3 3.8 4.1 Imports ($mn) 2.0 2.7 3.7 5.0 6.3 4.3 5.1 6.7 7.7 7.7 8.3 7.9 7.6 Trade balance ($mn) -0.9 -1.2 -2.0 -2.9 -3.8 -2.4 -2.6 -3.5 -4.2 -3.5 -4.0 -4.1 -3.5 Trade balance (% of GDP) -18 -19 -26 -23 -30 -22 -22 -24 -27 -22 -24 -30 -25 Current account balance ($mn) -0.4 -0.8 -1.3 -2.1 -3.1 -1.2 -1.3 -2.0 -1.9 -1.0 -1.4 -1.7 -1.8 Current account balance (% of GDP) -8.4 -12.0 -16.2 -17.1 -24.5 -11.5 -11.4 -13.6 -12.1 -5.9 -8.3 -12.6 -12.8 Net FDI ($mn) 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.1 Net FDI (% of GDP) 9 8 15 14 11 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 8 Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1 -4 -1 -4 -13 -5 -6 -7 -8 -1 -2 -7 -5 Exports (% YoY, value) 31 35 13 25 16 -22 30 32 8 21 1 -12 8 Imports (% YoY, value) 37 34 37 35 26 -31 18 34 14 0 7 -5 -4 Foreign exchange reserves (ex. gold, $mn) 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 Import cover (months of merchandise imports) 2 2 3 3 3 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 Debt indicators

Gross external debt ($mn) 3.1 3.2 3.8 5.8 7.7 8.8 10.1 11.6 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.5 Gross external debt (% of GDP) 59 50 49 47 60 82 87 80 83 82 80 99 96 Gross external debt (% of exports) 279 218 228 277 316 466 410 355 377 311 307 350 329 Currency and monetary policy

Broad money supply (% YoY) 61.5 28.9 33.4 53.6 -11.7 16.6 27.0 27.8 7.6 33.2 10.1 8.5 12.5 Key policy rate (% YE) 8.0 5.0 7.5 6.75 5.25 3.75 4.00 6.50 6.50

Exchange rate (EUR) year-end 2.49 2.12 2.25 2.33 2.36 2.42 2.35 2.16 2.18 2.40 2.27 2.55 2.59 Exchange rate (EUR) annual average 2.38 2.26 2.23 2.29 2.19 2.33 2.36 2.35 2.12 2.21 2.35 2.36 2.49 Exchange rate ($) year-end 1.83 1.76 1.71 1.59 1.67 1.69 1.77 1.67 1.65 1.74 1.87 2.45 2.35 Exchange rate ($) annual average 1.92 1.81 1.78 1.37 1.49 1.67 1.78 1.69 1.65 1.66 1.76 2.25 2.35 Source: National Bank of Georgia, National Statistics Office of Georgia, IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates

11 Renaissance Capital Key economic forecasts: Nigeria 20 August 2015

Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia

Figure 12: Nigeria – key economic forecasts Ratings (Moody's/S&P/F): Ba3/BB- 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E

Activity

Real GDP (%YoY) 5.3 4.2 5.5 6.2 3.4 4.0

Private consumption (% YoY) 2.6 0.3 29.3

Government consumption (% YoY) 4.6 -2.0 1.4

Investment (% YoY) -29.8 1.9 10.5

Oil production (mn b/d, YE) 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.1 Nominal GDP (NGNbn) 27,443 31,359 37,780 39,562 55,469 63,713 72,600 81,010 90,083 102,874 118,408 Nominal GDP (EURbn) 170 182 216 189 277 293 359 382 415 446 469 Nominal GDP ($bn) 214 249 317 264 367 408 462 508 545 495 520 Population (mn) 140 144 148 152 156 160 165 169 174 179 184 GDP per capita ($) 1,525 1,734 2,148 1,739 2,354 2,547 2,803 3,001 3,134 2,767 2,834 Gross national saving (% of GDP) 34.2 30.6 25.3 26.8 21.2 19.2 19.3 18.7 18.7 14.8 16.0 Stock of bank credit to corporate/ 2,565 5,055 8,057 10,152 9,704 14,184 15,136 16,509 18,177 20,704 23,706 household sector (NGNbn) Stock of bank credit to corporate/ 9.3 16.1 21.3 25.7 17.5 22.3 20.8 20.4 20.2 20.1 20.0 household sector (% of GDP) Loan to deposit ratio 60.5 70.9 94.7 100.8 86.7 79.3 73.3 69.1 72.1 73.0 74.0 Prices

CPI (average % YoY) 8.4 5.4 11.5 12.6 13.7 10.8 12.2 8.5 8.4 10.8 11.1 CPI (end-year % YoY) 8.6 6.6 15.1 13.9 11.8 10.9 12.0 8.0 8.1 13.6 9.4 Fiscal balance (% of GDP)

Federal government balance 2.7 -0.3 0.6 -2.5 -3.3 -1.9 -1.9 -1.8 -1.4 -2.2 -1.8 Total public debt 8.1 8.5 7.5 9.6 9.6 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.6 12.1 12.2 External balance

Exports ($bn) 58.8 54.8 80.7 60.0 75.1 93.3 96.0 95.1 83.9 54.5 59.4 Imports ($bn) 22.8 32.7 27.8 30.0 53.8 62.2 53.6 51.4 57.1 49.3 52.4 Trade balance ($bn) 36.0 22.1 52.9 30.0 21.3 31.1 42.5 43.8 26.8 5.2 7.0 Trade balance (% of GDP) 16.9 8.9 16.7 11.3 5.8 12.0 9.2 8.6 4.9 1.1 1.3 Current account balance ($bn) 36.8 27.9 29.3 14.0 13.4 8.8 20.4 20.7 6.2 -14.9 -13.7 Current account balance (% of GDP) 17.3 11.2 9.2 5.3 3.7 2.1 4.4 4.1 1.1 -3.0 -2.6 Net FDI ($bn) 8.8 6.0 5.5 5.8 4.0 7.7 4.2 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.7 Net FDI (% of GDP) 4.1 2.4 1.7 2.2 1.1 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 Current account balance plus FDI 21.4 13.6 11.0 7.5 4.7 4.0 5.3 4.7 1.7 -2.8 -2.1 (% of GDP) Exports (% YoY, value) 18 -7 47 -26 25 24 3 -1 -12 -35 9 Imports (% YoY, value) 70 44 -15 8 79 16 -14 -4 11 -14 6 Foreign exchange reserves 42.3 51.3 53.0 44.8 32.3 32.4 44.2 43.6 34.5 28.0 28.5 (ex. gold, $bn) Import cover (months of 22.3 18.9 22.9 17.9 7.2 6.3 9.9 10.2 7.2 6.8 6.5 merchandise imports) Debt indicators

Gross external debt ($bn) 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.5 5.6 6.1 7.2 11.1 13.4 14.4 16.6 Gross external debt (% of GDP) 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.2 Gross external debt (% of exports) 7 7 5.1 7.6 7.5 6.5 7.5 11.7 15.9 26.5 28.0 Total debt service ($bn) 6.7 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Total debt service (% of GDP) 3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total debt service (% of exports) 11 1.8 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest & exchange rates

Monetary policy rate (MPR), %YE 14.0 9.5 9.8 6.0 6.3 12.0 12.0 12.0 13.0 15.0 13.0 Broad money supply (% YoY) 50.7 58.1 58.0 17.1 7.1 15.8 12.0 14.7 16.0 14.3 16.2 Credit to the private sector (% YoY) 27.8 97.1 59.4 26.0 -4.4 46.2 6.7 9.1 10.1 13.9 14.5 3-month interest rate (T-bill avg, %) 6.9 7.8 6.9 4.3 7.5 14.1 11.7 10.9 10.8 11.5 10.9 3-month interest rate spread 1.7 2.5 4.0 3.6 7.2 13.8 11.3 10.6 10.6 11.3 10.7 over $-Libor (ppts) 5Y yield (%, YE) 13.0 9.5 10.5 9.4 12.0 11.2 11.8 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.0 Exchange rate (NGN/EUR) year-end 170 172 195 214 203 206 206 221 238 253 250 Exchange rate (NGN/EUR) 161 172 175 209 200 217 202 212 220 231 253 annual average Exchange rate NGN/$) year-end 129 118 140 150 152 159 156 160 183 230 225 Exchange rate (NGN/$) annual average 129 126 119 150 151 156 157 159 165 208 228 Source: Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics, IMF, World Bank, Renaissance Capital estimates

12 Renaissance Capital Disclosures appendix 20 August 2015

Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia

Analysts certification

This research report has been prepared by the research analyst(s), whose name(s) appear(s) on the front page of this document, to provide background information about the issuer or issuers (collectively, the “Issuer”) and the securities and markets that are the subject matter of this report. Each research analyst hereby certifies that with respect to the Issuer and such securities and markets, this document has been produced independently of the Issuer and all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect his or her personal views about the Issuer and any and all of such securities and markets. Each research analyst and/or persons connected with any research analyst may have interacted with sales and trading personnel, or similar, for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. If the date of this report is not current, the views and contents may not reflect the research analysts’ current thinking. Each research analyst also certifies that no part of his or her compensation was, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views in this research report. Research analysts’ compensation is determined based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited and any of its affiliates (“Renaissance Capital”). Like all of Renaissance Capital’s employees, research analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall Renaissance Capital profitability, which includes revenues from other business units within Renaissance Capital.

Important issuer disclosures

Important issuer disclosures outline currently known conflicts of interest that may unknowingly bias or affect the objectivity of the analyst(s) with respect to an issuer that is the subject matter of this report. Disclosure(s) apply to Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited or any of its direct or indirect subsidiaries or affiliates (which are individually or collectively referred to as “Renaissance Capital”) with respect to any issuer or the issuer’s securities.

A complete set of disclosure statements associated with the issuers discussed in this Report is available using the ‘Stock Finder’ or ‘Bond Finder’ for individual issuers on the Renaissance Capital Research Portal at: http://research.rencap.com/eng/default.asp

Enel OGK-5 OAO, formerly OGK-5 OAO (Enel OGK-5 OJSC) RIC: OGKE.MM Renaissance Capital is either a market maker or on a continuous basis has sold to/bought from customers on a principal basis the securities or related securities of the issuer at prices defined by Renaissance Capital. Halyk Bank AO RIC: HSBKq.L Renaissance Capital is either a market maker or on a continuous basis has sold to/bought from customers on a principal basis the securities or related securities of the issuer at prices defined by Renaissance Capital. Kcell AO/Kcell OJSC RIC: KCELq.L Renaissance Capital is either a market maker or on a continuous basis has sold to/bought from customers on a principal basis the securities or related securities of the issuer at prices defined by Renaissance Capital.

Investment ratings

Investment ratings may be determined by the following standard ranges: Buy (expected total return of 15% or more); Hold (expected total return of 0-15%); and Sell (expected negative total return). Standard ranges do not always apply to emerging markets securities and ratings may be assigned on the basis of the research analyst’s knowledge of the securities. Investment ratings are a function of the research analyst’s expectation of total return on equity (forecast price appreciation and dividend yield within the next 12 months, unless stated otherwise in the report). Investment ratings are determined at the time of initiation of coverage of an issuer of equity securities or a change in target price of any of the issuer’s equity securities. At other times, the expected total returns may fall outside of the range used at the time of setting a rating because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations will be permitted but will be subject to review by Renaissance Capital’s Research Management. Where the relevant issuer has a significant material event with further information pending or to be announced, it may be necessary to temporarily place the investment rating Under Review. This does not revise the previously published rating, but indicates that the analyst is actively reviewing the investment rating or waiting for sufficient information to re-evaluate the analyst’s expectation of total return on equity. Where coverage of the relevant issuer is due to be maintained by a new analyst, on a temporary basis the relevant issuer will be rated as Coverage in Transition. Previously published investment ratings should not be relied upon as they may not reflect the new analysts’ current expectations of total return. While rated as Coverage in Transition, Renaissance Capital may not always be able to keep you informed of events or provide background information relating to the issuer. If issuing of research is restricted due to legal, regulatory or contractual obligations publishing investment ratings will be Restricted. Previously published investment ratings should not be relied upon as they may no longer reflect the analysts’ current expectations of total return. While restricted, the analyst may not always be able to keep you informed of events or provide background information relating to the issuer. Where Renaissance Capital has neither reviewed nor revised its investment ratings on the relevant issuer for a period of 180 calendar days, coverage shall be discontinued. Where Renaissance Capital has not provided coverage of an issuer for a period of 365 calendar days, coverage shall be discontinued. Where Renaissance Capital has not expressed a commitment to provide continuous coverage and/or an expectation of total return, to keep you informed, analysts may prepare reports covering significant events or background information without an investment rating (Not Covered). Your decision to buy or sell a security should be based upon your personal investment objectives and should be made only after evaluating the security’s expected performance and risk.

Renaissance Capital reserves the right to update or amend its investment ratings in any way and at any time it determines.

13 Renaissance Capital 20 August 2015

Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia

Renaissance Capital equity research distribution of ratings

Investment Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships* Renaissance Capital Research Renaissance Capital Research Buy 140 40% Buy 3 100% Hold 134 39% Hold 0 0% Sell 70 20% Sell 0 0% Under Review 2 1% Under Review 0 0% Restricted 0 0% Restricted 0 0% Cov. in Trans. 0 0% Cov. in Trans. 0 0% 346 3

Enel Russia share price, target price and rating history Buy Hold Sell Not covered Cov. in Trans. Under Review Restricted Suspended Target Price Last Price 3.5 100% 3 80% 2.5 2 60% 1.5 40% 1 0.5 20% 0 0% Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 Source: Bloomberg

Halyk Bank share price, target price and rating history Buy Hold Sell Not covered Cov. in Trans. Under Review Restricted Suspended Target Price Last Price 16 100% 14 12 80% 10 60% 8 6 40% 4 20% 2 0 0% Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 Source: Bloomberg

KCell share price, target price and rating history Buy Hold Sell Not covered Cov. in Trans. Under Review Restricted Suspended Target Price Last Price 25 100% 20 80% 15 60% 10 40% 5 20% 0 0% Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jun-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Mar-14 Mar-15 Feb-14 Feb-15 Nov-13 Dec-13 Nov-14 Dec-14 Aug-13 Sep-13 Aug-14 Sep-14 Aug-15 May-13 May-14 May-15 Source: Bloomberg

14 Renaissance Capital 20 August 2015

Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Georgia

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Renaissance Capital research team

Head of Research & Turkish Product Michael Harris +44 (203) 379-7982 [email protected] Deputy Head of Research David Ferguson +7 (495) 641-4189 [email protected] Head of Russian Research Vladimir Sklyar +7 (495) 258-7770 x4624 [email protected] Head of Turkish Research Ilgin Erdogan +90 (212) 362-3530 [email protected] Head of Nigerian Research Adesoji Solanke +234 (1) 448-5300 x5384 [email protected]

Name Telephone number Coverage Name Telephone number Coverage Macro Oil and gas Charles Robertson +44 (203) 379-7835 Global Ildar Davletshin +7 (495) 725-5244 EMEA Yvonne Mhango +27 (11) 750-1488 Sub-Saharan Africa Temilade Esho +234 (1) 448-5300 x5363 Sub-Saharan Africa Oleg Kouzmin +7 (495) 258-7770 x4506 Russia/CIS Evgeny Stroinov +7 (495) 258-7770 x4046 Russia/CIS

Equity Strategy Metals and mining Daniel Salter +44 (203) 379-7824 Global Johann Pretorius +27 (11) 750-1450 South Africa Michael Harris +44 (203) 379-7982 Turkey Steven Friedman +27 (11) 750-1481 South Africa Charles Robertson +44 (203) 379-7835 Global Kabelo Moshesha +27 (11) 750-1472 South Africa Vladimir Sklyar +7 (495) 258-7770 x4624 Russia/CIS Financials Anastasia Burkhanova +7 (495) 258-7770 x4594 Russia/CIS Can Demir +90 (212) 362-3511 Turkey, Greece Armen Gasparyan +7 (495) 783-5673 Russia, CEE Diversified/Industrials Omair Ansari +234 (1) 448-5329 CEE Ilgin Erdogan +90 (212) 362-3528 Turkey Ilan Stermer +27 (11) 750-1482 South Africa Seki Mutukwa +44 (203) 379-7736 Sub-Saharan Africa/MENA Adesoji Solanke +234 (1) 448-5300 x5384 Sub-Saharan Africa Ryan Ayache +971 (4) 401-9558 MENA Telecoms/Transportation Seki Mutukwa +44 (203) 379-7736 Sub-Saharan Africa/MENA Alexander Kazbegi +41 (78) 883-4527 Global Olamipo Ogunsanya +234 (1) 448-5300 x5368 Sub-Saharan Africa Artem Yamschikov +7 (495) 258-7770 x7511 Russia/CIS

Consumer/Retail/Agriculture Media/Technology/Real estate David Ferguson +7 (495) 641-4189 Russia/CIS, Africa David Ferguson +7 (495) 641-4189 Russia/CIS, Africa Robyn Collins +27 (11) 750-1480 South Africa Ahmed Motara +27 (11) 750-1458 South Africa Mete Ozbek +90 (212) 362-3505 Turkey Seki Mutukwa +44 (203) 379-7736 Sub-Saharan Africa/MENA Zaheer Joosub +27 (11) 750-1427 South Africa Kirill Panarin +7 (495) 258-7770 x4009 Russia/CIS, Africa Nazmiya Ebrahim +27 (11) 750-1431 South Africa Kirill Panarin +7 (495) 258-7770 x4009 Russia/CIS, Africa Utilities Omair Ansari +234 (1) 448-5329 Sub-Saharan Africa/CEE Vladimir Sklyar +7 (495) 258-7770 x4624 Russia/CIS Olaloye Oyawoye +234 (1) 448-5300 x5377 Sub-Saharan Africa/CEE Anastasia Burkhanova +7 (495) 258-7770 x4594 Russia/CIS Renaissance Capital research is available via the following platforms: Renaissance research portal: research.rencap.com Thomson Reuters: thomsonreuters.com/financial Bloomberg: RENA Factset: www.factset.com Capital IQ: www.capitaliq.com

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