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The Mobile Economy China 2019

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The Mobile Economy China 2019 The Mobile Economy China 2019 Copyright © 2019 GSM Association The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with over operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of 350 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, authoritative industry reports and research. Our data including handset and device makers, software companies, covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every equipment providers and internet companies, as well as country worldwide – from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in available, comprising tens of millions of individual data Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by 360 Series of regional conferences. leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate decision-making and long-term investment planning. The website at www.gsma.com data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team Follow the GSMA on Twitter: @GSMA of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. www.gsmaintelligence.com [email protected] Contents CHINA IN CONTEXT 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: CHINA POWERS INTO 5G ERA 4 1 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 8 1.1 Many of the world’s new subscribers will come from China 9 1.2 China grows smartphone adoption domestically and globally 10 1.3 4G leads, with 5G on the horizon 10 1.4 Financial outlook modest as 5G investment programmes get underway 14 2 MOBILE’S POSITIVE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS 16 2.1 Mobile contributing to economic growth and jobs 17 2.2 Consumer engagement with mobile services 21 2.3 Mobile addressing social challenges 24 3 MOBILE ENABLING AND DRIVING INNOVATION ACROSS CHINA 26 3.1 Smart cities and the industrial Internet of Things 27 3.2 Tech investment and the start-up ecosystem 28 3.3 China’s expanding e-commerce market 28 3.4 Strategies for artificial intelligence 29 3.5 Blockchain initiatives in China’s TMT sector 30 4 SHAPING POLICY TO DELIVER ON THE PROMISE OF 5G 31 4.1 5G spectrum policy 32 4.2 Regulatory modernisation 33 4.3 Cross-industry policy for verticals 36 4.4 Artificial intelligence and ethics 37 The Mobile Economy China 2019 China in context China is a huge mobile market, nearly four times the scope for future subscriber growth appears the size of North America, with 1.2 billion unique limited. With 4G entrenched as the dominant mobile subscribers at the end of 2018. Over 97% of these technology across the board, the prospects for come from mainland China, with the remainder meaningful revenue uplifts over the coming years spread across three other markets – Hong Kong, will rely heavily on operators’ ability to use 5G to Macao and Taiwan. expose new income streams. Looking ahead, all three markets will be towards the forefront of 5G Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are all advanced commercialisation, launching services in 2020. In telecoms markets; they were relatively early 2025, 5G adoption is expected to be well above the adopters of mobile services and technology, which global average as consumers and businesses seek to has resulted in high unique subscriber penetration utilise the myriad benefits next-generation networks and smartphone uptake. This maturity means that can deliver. Mainland China TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 2018 77% 2G 15% 82% 3G 8% 4G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION 2018 2018 69% Hong Kong, SAR China TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 2018 66% 2G 12% 89% 3G 4G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION 2018 2018 21% 75% *Percentage of total connections 2 China in context The Mobile Economy China 2019 Macao, SAR China TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 2G 2018 1% 85% 3G 14% 88% 4G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION 2018 2018 82% Taiwan, Province of China TECHNOLOGY MIX* SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 2018 3G 98% 2% 90% 4G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION 2018 2018 76% While the mobile industry dynamics of these Korea and the US, as well as leading European markets are interesting in and of themselves, nations. Therefore, where subsequent analysis, data this report focusses on mainland China, with points or charts relate to China, we are referring to comparisons to larger markets such as Japan, South mainland China only. China in context 3 The Mobile Economy China 2019 Executive Summary China powers into 5G era 4 Executive Summary The Mobile Economy China 2019 Mobile underpins rapid transition to a digital society China is the world’s second largest economy, Despite trailing many developed markets accounting for close to a fifth of global in launching 4G, Chinese operators have gross domestic product (GDP). Through a invested heavily in their networks, recognising combination of government policies and the positive correlation between user market forces, the economy has expanded experience and data consumed. This has massively since the late 1970s, with industries resulted in improved mobile data speeds, such as steel, automotive and telecoms while subscribers in China have migrated to developing rapidly. Today, China’s broad 4G services at a faster pace than those in and diverse mobile ecosystem underpins its Australia and the US, creating a mass market digitisation strategy and is having a profound and economies of scale in a short timeframe. impact on consumers, businesses and Operators are now working to bring 5G to wider society. market and are set to lead much of the world in this space. China will host the 2022 Winter With close to 1.2 billion subscribers, China Olympic and Paralympic Games, which will is the largest mobile market globally. serve as further motivation to accelerate Particularly impressive is the rate of growth 5G deployments. in mobile internet penetration, which reached 58% at year-end 2018, having trebled over The country has also grown a massive the course of a decade. Consequently, China’s smartphone manufacturing industry, growing middle class are purchasing more with household names and lesser-known goods online, amplifying the country’s already brands experiencing success domestically huge e-commerce market and reducing and around the world. Meanwhile, with the prevalence of cash transactions. China growing global concern regarding security, is home to many millions of tech-savvy Chinese network infrastructure vendors face consumers who are keen adopters of social challenges in maintaining their footholds in media and users of a variety of apps, placing certain markets. greater demands on operators for improved network performance. Government and policymakers enable a platform for digital progression and pioneers In a testing geopolitical climate, the In parallel, Chinese policymakers have government remains steadfast in pushing taken important steps to modernise the forward the country’s digitisation journey, country’s regulatory framework for telecoms, considering traditional sectors such as retail establishing a platform for further digital and health as ripe for disruption. The state progression. Though further reforms is also investing in a range of emerging should be considered, many technological technology industries such as AI, leading advancements are on the horizon and more to a surge in external financing. Meanwhile, industries will adopt and commercialise internet tech players and mobile operators digital solutions. Operators appear resolved alike are at the cutting edge of innovation, to provide the superior connectivity required often partnering to develop and apply to power China in the 5G era, supporting the pioneering solutions, which can improve country’s transition to a leading digital society efficiency and realise cost savings, as well as and its presence on the international stage. expose new revenue streams. Executive Summary 5 Mobile Economy Total operator revenues Capex as a proportion of revenue China RMB1.1tn 2018 2018 2025 Unique SIM mobile connections (Excluding licensed cellular IoT) 13% subscribers 2018 RMB1.2tn 2018 1.17bn 1.5bn PENETRATION RATE PENETRATION RATE CAGR 109% (% of population) 115% 2018–25 Mobile 82% (% of population) 85% 5.5% sector RMB5.2tn 2018 0.6% 0.9% contribution to GDP RMB6.0tn 2023 CAGR 1.22bn2025 12025.7bn 2018–25 Smartphone 4G adoption 2025 Public funding Employment adoption Mobile ecosystem contribution to public funding (before regulatory 2018 69% 88% 72% and spectrum fees) 5G connections 2025 28% RMB583bn 8DIRECT.5m AND INDIRECT 2018 460m of total Licensed cellular IoT connections 2025 Jobs 2018 2025 1.9bn supported by the mobile ecosystem Mobile Economy Total operator revenues Capex as a proportion of revenue China RMB1.1tn 2018 2018 2025 Unique SIM mobile connections (Excluding licensed cellular IoT) 13% subscribers 2018 RMB1.2tn 2018 1.17bn 1.5bn PENETRATION RATE PENETRATION RATE CAGR 109% (% of population) 115% 2018–25 Mobile 82% (% of population) 85% 5.5% sector RMB5.2tn 2018 0.6% 0.9% contribution to GDP RMB6.0tn 2023 CAGR 1.22bn2025 12025.7bn 2018–25 Smartphone 4G adoption 2025 Public funding Employment adoption Mobile ecosystem contribution to public funding (before regulatory 2018 69% 88% 72% and spectrum fees) 5G connections 2025 28% RMB583bn 8DIRECT.5m AND INDIRECT 2018 460m of total Licensed cellular IoT connections 2025 Jobs 2018 2025 1.9bn supported by the mobile ecosystem The Mobile Economy China 2019 01 Industry overview 8 Industry overview The Mobile Economy China 2019 1.1 Many of the world’s new subscribers will come from China At the end of 2018, China was the largest mobile With subscribers owning on average 1.3 SIM cards in market in the world, with nearly 1.2 billion unique China, there were more than 1.5 billion connections mobile subscribers.1 This is equivalent to a at year-end 2018,2 representing a market penetration rate of 82% of the population, compared penetration of close to 110%.
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