Copyright by

Louis Gerald Alcorn 2019

The Thesis Committee for Louis Gerald Alcorn Certifies that this is the approved version of the following Thesis:

Informal Transit Integration with Planned Transit Systems in ,

APPROVED BY SUPERVISING COMMITTEE:

Alex Karner, Supervisor

Ming Zhang

Informal Transit Integration with Planned Transit Systems in Lagos, Nigeria

by

Louis Gerald Alcorn

Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin

in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of

Master of Science in Community and Regional Planning

The University of Texas at Austin May 2019 Dedication

To my wife, Lin Rui Li, who inspired this project to begin with and has always supported my intellectual and personal pursuits with all of her heart

Acknowledgements

I must first start by thanking my supervisors, Dr. Alex Karner and Dr. Ming Zhang, who have been instrumental in my development as an academic researcher. Your thoughtful feedback and commitment to my work has pushed me to achieve things that I struggled to envision upon entering graduate school (e.g. writing a cohesive ~170-page document about buses). Your passion for teaching and has enriched my graduate experience beyond measure. Additionally, my trip to Nigeria would not have been possible without travel grant funding support from the University of Texas School of Architecture.

In Nigeria, I want to thank my gracious hosts, Tunde, Yinka, and Amara, for welcoming me into your homes and helping me settle into your city. I want to thank all of my professional contacts for their technical, support, enthusiasm, and continuous engagement throughout my research project. I owe particular thanks to Dr. M. O. Olawole, Dr. Wale Alade, Ladi Ojora, and the students Rotimi, Yemi, and Tina who helped me carry out my fieldwork. Your support and guidance made this research project possible. Furthermore, I want to thank all of the interviewees who agreed to be a part of my case study. The welcoming involvement of LAMATA, LAGBUS, the NURTW, Lara.ng, and academics from UNILAG and LASU provided a rich set of resources and connections that bolstered my results. At home in California, I want to thank my parents, Greg and Laura, whose hard work and planning have privileged me with the ability and resources to travel the world and study what stimulates me. I am eternally grateful for your consistent love and support.

v Finally, I want to thank my wife, Lin Rui Li, for many things. This research topic and my pursuit of dual master’s degrees in transportation engineering and planning (a first at UT Austin) was inspired by her. I would not even come close to achieving my goals and objectives in school and in life without her undying inspiration and support.

vi Abstract

Informal Transit Integration with Planned Transit Systems in Lagos, Nigeria

Louis Gerald Alcorn, MSCRP The University of Texas at Austin, 2019

Supervisor: Alex Karner

Informal, minimally-regulated minibus services dominate public transportation in

Lagos. Local, state, and federal government entities in Nigeria have historically only been able to provide woefully inadequate formal transit systems. The informal transit sector has sprung up to fill this incredible demand. The cutthroat, individualistic grind of this system produces world-renowned problems of inefficiency, safety and, unreliability of urban transport in one of the world’s most populated cities. While build-out of more reliable, safer and more affordable public transit infrastructure in Lagos is imperative and ongoing, it is unclear whether past, current and future projects being carried out by the government are being or have been designed to incorporate informal services for a combined system that can better accommodate travel on a network scale throughout the city. Government agencies preach the need for modernist, top-down imposition of bold, physical infrastructure projects and the eradication of the disorder associated with the informal system. These plans boast a grand vision for the future of transport in Lagos, including the build out of numerous Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) routes, a 7-line

vii commuter/light-rail network, and even a gondola system serving Lagos and Victoria islands. This research takes a critical, post-colonial lens to the complex relationships at play in what currently embodies a competing, dual transit system rooted in institutional corruption. Through this analysis, I distill a potential for a collaborative relationship to develop in this place, leveraging the benefits of both the formal, ordered system and the informal system’s adaptive nature and situated knowledges.

viii Table of Contents

List of Tables ...... xiv

List of Figures ...... xv

List of Acronyms ...... xxi

Chapter 1: Introduction ...... 1

Background and Purpose ...... 1

Research Questions & Objectives...... 4

Research Question 1: What methods of politics and governance can foster the incorporation of both formal and informal transit services into a safe, accessible, and intermodal transportation landscape in Lagos? ...... 4

Research Question 2: What institutional, structural, or technological methods can be employed to affirmatively design a more effective, equitable, and sustainable public transport system in Lagos? ...... 5

Research Question 3: What is the general public perception of the formalized transit infrastructure improvements (e.g. BRT, rail lines, etc.) and the way that they have come to fruiting and how can this inform future development in the transport system? ...... 6

Theoretical Framework ...... 6

Contribution to Academic Research & Practice ...... 11

Thesis Structure ...... 12

Chapter 2: Overview of Transportation Conditions in Lagos ...... 15

Introduction: Informal Transit Systems and Formal Transit Plans in Lagos ...... 15

Danfo 101: How the Informal Transit System Works in Lagos ...... 15

Formal Transportation Plans ...... 19

LAMATA Strategic Transport Master Plan (STMP) ...... 19

ix Bus Reform Project: Phasing Out of Yellow Danfos with Formal Transit Hubs and Fleet Renewal ...... 22

Chapter 3: and Methodology ...... 25

Introduction ...... 25

Methodological Approach ...... 25

Research Design ...... 27

General Site Documentation ...... 28

Semi-Structured with Key Stakeholders ...... 34

Informal, Unstructured Interviews with People Using Transportation ...... 40

Primary Document Retrieval ...... 41

Primary Source Documents Obtained in Lagos, Nigeria (2018) Planning Documents/Reports...... 43

GIS Files ...... 44

Engineering Documents ...... 45

Relevant Academic Studies & Past Research Efforts ...... 45

Immersive Experience - Participant Observation and Photography ...... 46

Africa Smart Cities Conference ...... 48

Chapter 4: Informal Economies and Their Role in the Public Transport System in Lagos, Nigeria ...... 50

Introduction ...... 50

Background and History of the Informal Transport Sector ...... 50

Informal Transit Systems in the Global South ...... 50

Actors within the Informal Transit Sector in Lagos ...... 52

Leadership: The National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) ...55

Rank-and-File: Informal Transit Operators, Conductors, and Agberos ...... 57 x Passengers/General Public ...... 59

Discussion: The Dominance of the Informal City in Lagos ...... 63

Conclusion ...... 65

Chapter 5: Planning & Design Principles of Formal Public Transit in Lagos, Nigeria ....66

Introduction ...... 66

Background and History of Formal Public Transit Systems ...... 67

Existing Institutional Structure Governing Formal Transit in Lagos ...... 68

Nigerian Federal Ministry of Transport ...... 70

Lagos State Government - Ministry of Transport (MOT) ...... 71

Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (LAMATA) ...... 73

LAGBUS Asset Management Company ...... 76

Bus Rapid Transit Operating Company – Public-Private Partnership ...... 78

Procurement & Transit Vehicle Supply – Foreign Contractors ...... 80

Building Blocks of a Modern State: The Development Plan ...... 81

Discussion and Evaluation: The Vision for a Modern Lagos ...... 84

Evaluation of Plans for Formality ...... 84

Formal Actors United Around Modernity ...... 88

Conclusions ...... 91

Chapter 6: Alternative Futures of Transport in Lagos ...... 93

Introduction ...... 93

Public Involvement ...... 96

Politics and Governance ...... 103

Corruption in the Public Sector ...... 103

xi Regulation and Governance of the Transit System...... 105

Infrastructure Design ...... 113

Design and Assemblage Theory ...... 113

Technology ...... 117

African Smart Cities ...... 118

Transportation Start-ups Making Noise in Lagos ...... 122

Conclusions ...... 124

Chapter 7: Research Conclusions and Recommendations ...... 125

Responses to Research Questions ...... 125

Research Question 1: What methods of politics and governance can foster the incorporation of both formal and informal transit services into a safe, accessible, and intermodal transportation landscape in Lagos? ...... 125

Politics...... 125

Governance ...... 128

Research Question 2: What institutional, structural, or technological methods can be employed to affirmatively design a more effective, equitable, and sustainable transport system in Lagos? ...... 131

Physical Design ...... 131

Technology ...... 132

Research Question 3: What is the general public perception of the formalized transit infrastructure improvements (e.g. BRT, rail lines, etc.) and the way they have come to fruition and how can this inform future development in the transport system? ...... 134

Chapter 8: Key Takeaways ...... 136

Contributions to Academic Literature ...... 136

Academic Stance on Transit Formalization in Lagos ...... 137

xii Concluding Recommendations: Applying Lessons Learned to Practice in Lagos .138

Afterword: Reflections...... 140

Reflections on Role as a Foreign Researcher ...... 140

Reflections on Research Process & Methods ...... 142

Limitations of Research and Potential Future Studies ...... 144

Bibliography ...... 146

xiii List of Tables

Table 1: In-Person Semi-Structured Interviews Conducted in Lagos, Nigeria

(2018) ...... 37

Table 2: Primary Source Documents Obtained in Lagos, Nigeria (2018) ...... 42

xiv List of Figures

Figure 1: Population density per square kilometer in Lagos State in 2002 (left) and 2013 (right) generated through remote sensing (Image Source:

Dissanayake, Morimoto, Murayama, Ranagalage, & Handayani, 2018) ...... 1

Figure 2: Geographic locations of interest for this research project in order of diminishing scale from top-left to bottom: Africa (top-left), Nigeria (top- right), Lagos State (middle) and Lagos City (bottom). This research predominantly focuses on Lagos as a city, but boundaries of governance

in this area are complex and overlapping (Image Source: Google, 2018)...... 2

Figure 3: The Lagos Water Corporation (LWC) is unable to meet current demands for water production and efficient transmission. As such, residents are

forced to buy water from the informal sector, which marks up water 500% from the LWC rates. The LWC concludes that the “public is willing to pay if supply is reliable, regular and good quality” (Image

Source: Lagos Water Corporation, 2010, p. 5)...... 8

Figure 4: Danfo diagram from author’s sketchbook (July 2018)...... 16

Figure 5: Example Images of informal transit in its operating environment in Lagos: Danfo (top-left*), Molue (top-right**), okada (bottom-right*), keke maruwa (bottom-left*) (Photo Source: *L. Alcorn, 7/2018 and

**www.tate.org.uk, 2014) ...... 18

Figure 6: Rendering presenting LAMATA’s vision of integrated transport at Marina Station including BRT, LRT, Ferry, and also inevitably an

agglomeration of informal modes (Isaac, 2016)...... 20

xv Figure 7: LAMATA Strategic Transport Master Plan Maps of envisioned light-rail services (top) and BRT (bottom) (ALG Transportation Logistics, 2014). At the time of writing, the only route completed and operational on these

maps is the yellow-colored BRT line from Marina to ...... 21

Figure 8: Newly constructed Bus Terminal (right, middle) and Oyingbo

Transfer Hub under construction (right) (Photo source: L. Alcorn, 2018). ..23

Figure 9: Journal entries describing transit trip between two major destinations: the University of Lagos and the Ikeja Lagos State Government campus.

The round-trip involved numerous transfers, and a plethora of local knowledge from the students who accompanied me on this trip on July

26, 2018...... 28

Figure 10: Ikeja Bus Terminal Station (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018) ...... 29

Figure 11: Oshodi Bus Transfer Center/Hub (Photo Source: M. Olumide, 2018

(left) and D. Onah, 2018 (right) ©2018 Google) ...... 30

Figure 12: Ojodu-Berger NURTW Garage (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018) ...... 31

Figure 13: Oyingbo Transit Center and Surrounding (Photo Source: L. Alcorn,

7/2018) ...... 32

Figure 14: National Theater LRT Station (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018) ...... 33

Figure 15: Marina/CMS Informal Transit Garages (left, middle) and TBS Formal BRT/LAGBUS Terminal Station (right) (Photo Source: L. Alcorn,

7/2018) ...... 33

Figure 16: Study Sites in Lagos, Nigeria (Basemap Source: ©2018 Google, INEGI) ..34

xvi Figure 17: Top-left: View from the back of a danfo, Top-right: Pedestrians walking alongside freeway on-ramp to access Iyana Oworo Bus Stop, Bottom- left: Beginning of the at Iyana Oworo Bus Stop, Bottom-right: Pedestrian and danfo activity on the streets of Yaba

(Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018) ...... 47

Figure 18: Public Transit Adventures with Yemi (top-left & bottom-right), Rotimi (top-right) and Tina (top-right and bottom-left) (Photo Source: L.

Alcorn, 7/2018) ...... 48

Figure 19: Opening Panel for the Africa Smart City Conference (Photo Source: L.

Alcorn, 7/2018) ...... 49

Figure 20: Operational management structure of the informal passenger

transportation sector in Lagos State, Nigeria...... 53

Figure 21: Agbero pictured in the yellow suit along the Lagos Expressway near Iyana Iba. Agbero fees vary widely and often involve some back and forth negotiation, but the more mobile agbero, typically armed with some sort of weaponry has the upper hand (Image Source: Google

2016)...... 58

Figure 22: Personal journal entries describing transit trips taken between the two major destinations in Lagos. (Left) Trip between the University of Lagos, (UNILAG) Campus and the Marina/CMS/TBS central business district. Overall, the round-trip journey involved two modes of transport, boarding seven distinct vehicles and five hours of travel over the PM peak period on Wednesday, July 25, 2018. (Right) Trip between

UNILAG and Ojodu-Berger NURTW branch. One-way journey

involved two danfos, a BRT, and an okada on July 20, 2018...... 61 xvii Figure 23: Organizational chart of responsibilities in formal transit in Lagos ...... 69

Figure 24: Roadside billboards displaying ongoing public works projects being

undertaken by the Lagos State Government...... 72

Figure 25: Bus stop pull-offs/shelters built by the Lagos State MOT currently being

utilized for informal transit operations...... 72

Figure 26: LAMATA TBS BRT Station (left) configuration of bus-only right-of- way at Ojota Station (middle) and construction of Blue Line at National

Theater Station (right) (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018) ...... 75

Figure 27: Existing conditions (left*) vs. future layout (right**) of Lagos-Badagry

expressway axis. (Photo sources: *L. Alcorn, 2018; **(Daniel, 2013))...... 76

Figure 28: The once high-quality, air-conditioned, symbols of “modernized” public transport ply the streets of Lagos in tatters with missing parts and unreliable drive-trains. Lagbus stopped at TBS Terminal (left) and operating on the streets of Lagos (right) (Photo Source: L. Alcorn,

7/2018) ...... 77

Figure 29: (Left*) Primero’s Operation Control Center is used to monitor and manage ongoing bus operations. (Middle*) LAMATA/Primero Bus

Yard at Mile 12. (Right**) Bus Pilot and Officer Training (Photo

Sources: *L. Alcorn, 7/2018 and **(Orekoya, 2010))...... 80

Figure 30: Population densities and future migration patterns within the STMP

study area (Image Source: ALG Transportation Logistics, 2014) ...... 82

Figure 31: Priority transport corridors from STMP (Image Source: ALG

Transportation Logistics, 2014) ...... 83

xviii Figure 32: Magazine publication from Lagos Governor Ambode’s administration pledging 1,489 infrastructure projects over the course of his first term in office between May 2015 and May 2018 (Image Source: “How

Governor Ambode is Improving the Landscape of Lagos,” 2018)...... 89

Figure 33: (Left) Slogan displayed at National Theater Station CCECC construction site. (Middle) LAMATA Yutong BRT bus side panel. (Right) China

Civil roadside marker. (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018) ...... 90

Figure 34: A cartoon by Tayo Fatunla in The Guardian illustrates the general public sentiment about the transportation system in Lagos – an “integral” part

of the transport system, but you’re lucky to arrive alive. (Fatunla, 2019). ...94

Figure 35: Arnstein’s Ladder of Citizen Participation (Figure source: Arnstein,

1969, p. 217) ...... 97

Figure 36: (Left) Newspaper advertisement announcing public stakeholder meeting for Lagos State Ministry of Transportation (Salaam, 2019), (Right) The entrance to Adeyemi Bero Auditorium within the secure Lagos State Government campus complex involves clearing a stage of armed

security officers (Image Source: Google Maps, 2016)...... 100

Figure 37: Spectrum of governance/regulation of public transport entities in Turkey ranging from fully individualized to entirely institutional transit

operation (Figure Source: Yildizgoz, 2017)...... 109

Figure 38: The “force-foster continuum” describes a spectrum of case studies with varying degrees of engagement and inclusion of the informal transit sector within the build-out of the formal BRT system in each respective

city (Image Source: Flores-Dewey & Zegras, 2012)...... 111

xix Figure 39: Despite a planned built-environment specifically tailored to prioritize formal transit services and preclude/inhibit informal transit operation with fences, curbs, and other physical obstacles, danfos still assert their presence to serve passenger demand at Ikorodu Station (left) and TBS

Station near the CBD (right) (Photo source: L. Alcorn, 2018)...... 117

Figure 40: (Top Left*) dredging boat generating fill for the Eko Atlantic City. (Top Right*) University of Lagos student field trip to the “Great Wall of Lagos” built to protect Eko Atlantic City from surges in the Atlantic

Ocean. (Bottom**) The entire purple highlighted area on this map used to be part of the Atlantic Ocean and has since been filled in to create a 10 sq. km developable plot of land for the Eko Atlantic City (Image

Sources: *L. Alcorn, 2018 and (**Onuoha, 2017))...... 120

Figure 41: Lara.ng app interface mimics that of WhatsApp in order to simulate

having a conversation with a friend or relative about directions ...... 123

xx List of Acronyms

APC All Progressives Congress BRT Bus Rapid Transit EIG Economic Interest Group FMOT Nigerian Federal Ministry of Transport

ITDP Institute for Transportation and Development Policy ITS Intelligent Transportation Systems LAMATA Lagos Metropolitan Area Transportation Authority LAGFERRY Lagos State Ferry Services Corporation LASTMA Lagos State Traffic Management Authority LASU

LASWA Lagos State Waterways Authority LRT Light-Rail Transit LSG Lagos State Government LSTC Lagos State Transportation Corporation LWC Lagos Water Corporation MOT Lagos State Ministry of Transport

MVAA Lagos Motor Vehicle Administration Agency NURTW National Union of Road and Transport Workers PPP Public-private partnership SACCO Savings and Credit Cooperatives Societies UNILAG University of Lagos

xxi Chapter 1: Introduction

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Africa’s population is growing faster than any place in the world; one recent study projects that Lagos, Nigeria will rise to become the world’s most populated city, potentially housing over 100 million people by 2100 (Hoornweg & Pope, 2017). Lagos serves as the commercial capital of Nigeria, Africa’s most populated country (see Figure 1 and Figure 2); however, transportation infrastructure in Nigeria struggles to keep pace with the continent’s rapid urbanization. As other sectors of developing economies improve, transport problems worsen - in that way, “urban transport problems are perverse” (Pojani & Stead, 2016, p. 1).

Figure 1: Population density per square kilometer in Lagos State in 2002 (left) and 2013 (right) generated through remote sensing (Image Source: Dissanayake, Morimoto, Murayama, Ranagalage, & Handayani, 2018)

1

Figure 2: Geographic locations of interest for this research project in order of diminishing scale from top-left to bottom: Africa (top-left), Nigeria (top- right), Lagos State (middle) and Lagos City (bottom). This research predominantly focuses on Lagos as a city, but boundaries of governance in this area are complex and overlapping (Image Source: Google, 2018). 2 Historically, formal public transportation services in the form of ferry, bus, and rail have been structurally inefficient and have struggled to address the “herculean” task of accommodating intra-city person transport in the Lagos metropolis (Olanrewaju, Fadare, Akinlo, & Alawode, 1995). As such, private operators have seized the opportunity to fill the void for this incredible transportation demand via the creation of small-scale, informal jitney operations. The lion’s share of the 23 million people living in Lagos rely on informal, minimally regulated minibus services for their daily transportation needs. The cutthroat, individualistic grind of this system and the inefficiencies associated with smaller vehicles, institutional corruption, and the consequent traffic congestion pose world-renowned problems of inefficiency, safety, and unreliability of urban transport in one of the world’s most populated cities (Agbiboa, 2016; Efunshade, 2017; Olanrewaju et al., 1995). While build-out of more reliable, safer, and more affordable public transit infrastructure in Lagos is imperative and ongoing, it is unclear whether past, current, and future projects being carried out by the government are being or have been designed to incorporate informal services for a combined system that can better accommodate travel on a network scale throughout the metropolitan region. The Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (LAMATA) has a grand vision for the future of transport in Lagos, including building out numerous bus rapid transit

(BRT) routes, a seven-line commuter/light-rail network, and even a gondola system serving Lagos and Victoria islands (Aderibigbe, 2017). Mounting outcry to reform the informal transit landscape has been building over the last decade and the ongoing conversations have ranged from banning informal services outright to introducing a government program to phase out the informal sector incrementally, replacing them with new air-conditioned buses

(Aderibigbe, 2017). Although planners at LAMATA state that informal transit operators are key stakeholders in the planning process, it remains unclear to what extent the 3 integration of informal and formal modes exists in the planning process and physical design of facilities and streetscapes throughout the state (Ferro, 2018; Oladeinde, Omopariola, & Shitta-Bey, 2018). My research project aims to investigate these relationships and better understand embedded discourses within them through a qualitative engagement of actors representing all parts of the transportation landscape.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS & OBJECTIVES

The overarching objective of this study is to examine the existing informal transit sector in Lagos, Nigeria and investigate how these services are or are not being integrated into formally planned transit infrastructure projects funded and carried out by the government or through other means (e.g. public-private partnerships, community-based cooperative organizations, etc.). The specific objectives and research questions are described below. A more detailed and explicit description of research methods for this analysis can be found in Chapter 3.

Research Question 1: What methods of politics and governance can foster the incorporation of both formal and informal transit services into a safe, accessible, and intermodal transportation landscape in Lagos?

This question relies on identifying and defining planning principles used to plan/provision formal and informal transit integration from both sides of the equation (government and informal sectors). Informed by the wealth of research that has been conducted both in Africa and around the world about informal transit services and their integration (or lack thereof) with formally planned transit systems, I conducted field work in Lagos to immerse myself in the local transportation landscape. During my field research,

I used both informal and formal transit services to travel throughout Lagos State. Case study sites (described in detail in Chapter 3) were selected based on recommendations from

4 local transport officials with the goal of analyzing a diversity of different operations serving different intra-city transit trips. Over the course of my stay, I conducted semi-structured interviews with local transport officials in both the formal and informal sectors. Additionally, I endeavored to obtain primary source data during my field work in the form of plan documents, surveys, feasibility reports, GIS-based data, and design standards via semi-structured interviews with LAMATA, Lagos State Ministry of Transport, the National Union of Road and Transport Workers (NURTW), and local universities (University of Lagos (UNILAG) and Lagos State University (LASU)). Due to the paucity of reliable and available online resources on these subjects, primary has been imperative to get a full and accurate perspective to report upon in this research project.

Research Question 2: What institutional, structural, or technological methods can be employed to affirmatively design a more effective, equitable, and sustainable public transport system in Lagos?

The research objective embedded in this question involves identifying and defining what facets of transit infrastructure design are imperative in the Lagosian context. Based on other case examples established through literature review and interviews of fellow researchers, I conducted extensive field work documenting the design and interaction of both formal and informal transit options and the individuals that use these services. This field work involved participant observation, maintaining a sketchbook of notes and designs (supplemented by mobile phone photography), along with immersion into the system itself while using various transit modes and transferring between them to travel about the city. Furthermore, I conducted semi-structured interviews with transport operators and transit facilities engineers, planners, and construction managers to distill design elements that go into the planning and design of these intermodal hubs. To obtain the customer/passenger 5 perspective, I also held informal conversations with fellow travelers about travel logistics and the effect of different streetscape and facility designs.

Research Question 3: What is the general public perception of the formalized transit infrastructure improvements (e.g. BRT, rail lines, etc.) and the way that they have come to fruiting and how can this inform future development in the transport system?

This question focuses on obtaining the perspective of the local traveling public about existing and future transit services. I obtained most of this information through informal conversations held at both formal and informal bus stops, garages, terminals, and transfer facilities, as well as within transit vehicles. Numerous existing surveys have been undertaken by both formal transportation agencies and Nigerian universities to study the local transportation systems in the context of user perceptions, accessibility, and many other factors (Adebambo & Adebayo, 2009; Afolabi, Hassan, & Age, 2017; Isaac, 2016; Okagbue, Adamu, Iyase, & Owoloko, 2015; Olawepo, 2010; Olawole, 2012; Olufemi, 2008; Orekoya, 2010). I was able to seek out relationships with transportation officials and universities to obtain access to these surveys to bolster analysis for this objective, though many agents were reticent to share data with me for my research. Additionally, I attended the Africa Smart Cities Conference and visited the Eko Atlantic smart city currently under development. These experiences provided insight into the vision of the future of the Lagos megacity held by African academics.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

The rapidly expanding urban centers of the Global South have come to be termed ‘megacities’ in both popular culture and urban studies academia. The ‘megacity’ term “has become shorthand for the human condition of the global South” exhibiting a characteristic enormous population and a series of “herculean problems of underdevelopment” (Roy, 6 2011, p. 224). Juxtaposed against the ‘global and world cities’ of the Global North, urban populations in ‘megacities’ are exploding despite decaying infrastructure and economic stagnation (Robinson, 2002), growing in size but not in wealth1. Managers and politicians representing megacities recognize the inhibitors that prevent them from participating in the global marketplace – crushing poverty, lack of reliable power networks2, sufficient infrastructure3, and other basic public services/facilities, etc. – but maintain the lofty hope and determination to sit side by side among ‘superstar cities’ like New York, Los Angeles, and London.4 A key strategy to achieve this outcome involves leveraging new technologies to ‘leap-frog’ intermediate stages of development to the top. This rhetoric paired with a general shift towards neoliberal urban governance in the Global South simultaneously promotes “responsibilization”, thereby shifting the responsibility for the provision of basic services – previously handled by government authorities - to residents (Sletto & Nygren, 2015, p. 965; Clarke, 2005) through a hegemonic and perverted pseudo-empowerment. This move also allows these same leaders to blame their city’s inability to rise to global power on these same residents, claiming that issues like torrential flooding result from residents disposing of waste in waterways and clogging drainage systems, rather than woefully inadequate infrastructure or a lack of regularized city sanitation services (Sletto

& Nygren, 2015). This type of responsibilization defines the transportation sector in Lagos,

1 Dr. Banji Oyeyinka – Former Chief Scientific Advisor, UN-Habitat. Opening remarks as Lead Speaker of Africa Smart Cities Conference, July 24, 2018 2 During an informal conversation with a middle-aged uber driver who has lived his whole life in Lagos, he mentioned that throughout his entire live he has never seen a stretch longer than seven days without an electricity outage. – Martins, Uber Driver. Informal conversation with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 3 The line of trucks looking to deliver products to the port extends more than six miles, permanently occupying one of two lanes on the expressway. It takes drivers more than two weeks of sitting in traffic while bribing police and area boys to deliver products to the port facility (Wallace & Alake, 2018). A report measuring the time and expense of goods import/export found that Nigeria ranks 182th of 190 countries, below war-torn Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan (The World Bank, 2018). 4 Dr. Banji Oyeyinka – Former Chief Scientific Advisor, UN-Habitat. Opening remarks as Lead Speaker of Africa Smart Cities Conference, July 24, 2018 7 with pundits claiming that informal transport wreaks havoc on the city’s roadway infrastructure, thereby inhibiting the safe and efficient movement of goods and people throughout the metropolis. These shifts in governance and consequent responsibilization can be seen in all public infrastructure systems provision throughout Lagos. For example, due to dilapidated transmission infrastructure Lagos faces abysmally low rates of accessibility to fresh water. Consequently, Lagosians turn to the informal sector where average monthly spending on water ($44 USD) nearly eclipses Nigeria’s minimum wage ($47 USD) (Oluwafemi, 2017).

The Lagos Water Master Plan 2010-2020 framing of the issue as a commodification opportunity (see Figure 3 below) rather than a human rights issue has drawn intense criticism in that “willingness to pay” should not be the predominant concern of the government entity seeking to provide potable water services to the general public.

Figure 3: The Lagos Water Corporation (LWC) is unable to meet current demands for water production and efficient transmission. As such, residents are forced to buy water from the informal sector, which marks up water 500% from the LWC rates. The LWC concludes that the “public is willing to pay if supply is reliable, regular and good quality” (Image Source: Lagos Water Corporation, 2010, p. 5).

In the transportation industry, government institutions have prioritized funding for the reconstruction of the major roadway connecting the Apapa Oworonshoki Expressway

8 to the Murtala Muhammed Airport (MMA), in an effort to expedite and encourage more foreign investment and economic development in Lagos state. The long-neglected, dilapidated road that stretches from MMA to the bustling transit-center and marketplace of Oshodi serves as the first impression for those arriving to Lagos by air. In the same vein, as a recent ethnographic study conducted in the city spells out, Lagos is not a particularly warm, welcoming place5 and the state of the road connecting the airport to the heart of the city matches that feeling6. The construction of this 5.7-kilometer segment of roadway may be small in terms of spatial extent, but the government argues that the secondary effects of the project have the potential to stimulate foreign investment, urban renewal, and job growth as a result of the modern image this entry way to the city can create. In order to entice foreign investment in the local economy in Lagos, political leaders are clamoring to do everything they can to remedy the image of chaos7 that Lagos connotes to the outside world. However, projects like this will do little to immediately benefit the local populace, many of whom will never use the airport. This top-down drive for modernization extends to transit service planning in the metropolitan area. LAMATA has secured contractors that have designed and are currently building the city’s first elevated light-rail line and a series of bus transfer facilities, modeled on best practice designs sourced from the U.K. and China. The process of infrastructure

5 “It is used to be said that whereas other Nigerian cities receive visitors convivially with signs such as ‘Welcome to Jos’ or ‘Welcome to Kaduna’, visitors are not . Instead a terse notice informs you ominously, ‘This is Lagos’. To confirm that you are now in a different clime […] clearly not a city for the faint hearted (Ngwodo, 2005 qtd. in Agbiboa, 2017). 6 “In its past state, it definitely left a sour taste in the mouth of an average first-time visitor to the country. It portrayed Nigeria as a country at war with itself! Indeed, not even the airport roads in the war-torn Syria or Beirut are as decrepit and deplorable” (Alalade, 2017). 7 An with a danfo conductor yielded the following picture of Lagos as seen from the perspective of someone who works day in and day out in the transportation industry of the city: “’This is Lagos’ means that this is a land of nobody, a land of no mercy, a land of no trust. It is a jungle. You have to be alert all time. No dulling my brother […] Lagos life is war! It is full of suffering, like hell. At times I start to cry when I look at the situation because we are living in a loveless place [sic]” (Agbiboa, 2016). 9 renewal largely discounts the agency and knowledge situated in the informal system through the top-down imposition of modernist planning ideals with the express intention of cleaning up the system. These modernist interventions can easily be justified through market-based logic and a “dispositional spatial rationality” grounded in ideas of efficiency, order, and utility (Huxley, 2006, p. 774; Fält, 2016; Todes, 2011). This development discourse has largely been adopted wholesale by the Nigerian government, but it is rooted in ideals originally championed by the historic planning traditions of the Global North, the same traditions that marginalized much of the indigenous populations within developing countries through the process of colonization propagated by orientalism-based thought (Rankin, 2009; Said, 1978). Watson (2009b, p. 151) further contends that there is an inherent danger in ‘borrowing’ ideas across contexts between the global North and South, which has resulted in urban planning being used as a tool (or a weapon in some cases) to “promote social and spatial exclusion [while] doing little to secure environmental sustainability” or reach other forward-thinking development goals. This reliance on modernist planning ideals discounts alternative narratives of development, based on other types of knowledges, many of which cannot be mathematically quantified to fit in the modern planning discourse (e.g., Cavalcanti, 2007).

Escobar (1996, pp. 6–7) cites African philosopher V.Y. Mudimbe, who claims that

Afrocentric research perspectives critical of the traditional European insights manifest in Africa today opens a way towards “Africans [having] greater autonomy over how they are represented and how they can construct their own social and cultural models in ways not so mediated by a Western episteme … albeit in an increasingly transnational context”. I think that this in large part is true and there is certainly a pent-up demand to be uniquely and organically ‘African’ in Nigerian society, but the powers that be (many of whom could afford to be educated abroad in Europe, China, or the U.S.) press on under the banner of 10 Western- or Sino-centric modernization. However, this streak of Western contemporary thinking only extends to fixtures of rationality – things like business and infrastructure – not to inclusive engagement of different perspectives. Patriarchal structure is very prevalent in Nigerian society and the Descartes-ian argument that “men are rational and women emotional” fuels the reliance on objective, quantitative measures based in math, economics, and sciences research to justify decisions over those solicited from participatory processes and focused on “situated knowledges” or lived experience from a feminist epistemology (Peet & Hartwick, 2009, p. 243).

Overall, it remains clear that leaders in Nigeria are pushing forth a dialogue of development based in modernist planning from the Global North to attempt to build a society and environment that roughly matches or competes with the so-called developed world. In doing so, however, they are paradoxically marginalizing their own people and culture through the imposition of foreign values justified through responsibilization and ‘objective, rational thinking’. This process leaves the poor (and particularly poor women) outside of the feedback loop, looking in with no footing to affect the modernist bulldozer from blazing trail through the streets of Lagos in the name of ‘progress for all’ (but really for just a few).

CONTRIBUTION TO ACADEMIC RESEARCH & PRACTICE

Similar research has been conducted on informal transit in general in a variety of contexts worldwide; however, little explicit research on this topic has been conducted in Nigeria. The mixed-methods analysis that this research project employs seeks to triangulate numerous sources of both quantitative and qualitative data, which are contextualized through background research and semi-structured interviews, informal conversations, and participant observation during my field research in Summer of 2018.

11 This study broadens the participation of underrepresented groups who may not be regularly engaged as a part of the planning and operation of these transit systems – the operators and passengers of the system itself. At the outset of this project it was unclear how those who rely on and use the systems the most are engaged to further its development and this study will strive to fill that gap, while also incorporating institutional thinking and knowledge on transportation planning in Lagos from the perspectives of industry professionals. Furthermore, work completed as a part of this study allows for better connection and collaboration between the University of Texas at Austin and counterpart academic institutions in Nigeria – namely, University of Lagos and Lagos State University. Results and data collected will be disseminated in written and visual formats to both interested planning agencies and unions in Lagos, but also with advisers from these academic institutions in Nigeria, helping to further local research on the transit system from the local perspective. Overall, this study will synthesize a wide breadth of information and data currently unavailable to the global public in order to better understand and plan for the phenomena present in Lagos.

THESIS STRUCTURE

The second chapter provides an overview to the Lagosian transportation landscape. To provide a basic background for discussion in future chapters, this chapter introduces the informal transit system along with the plans to formalize these services. The third chapter reviews the methodological approach I’ve taken to examine the aforementioned research questions pertaining to the interplay between formal and informal transit in Lagos. This section lays out the research design elements of the study in context to the fieldwork I completed in Africa involving semi-structured interviews, primary

12 resource collection, informal conversations, journaling about lived experiences, and photography. The fourth and fifth chapters describe the informal and formal transit systems, respectively. Both chapters follow the same basic format of 1) introducing theoretical concepts driving these systems, 2) outlining the history and institutional structure of these systems in Lagos, 3) individually defining the actors within them, and 4) delving into a theoretical discussion about these institutional roles and relationships and their manifestation in the systems themselves.

The sixth chapter focuses on the future of transport in Lagos by further unpacking the findings from the fourth and fifth chapters using a post-colonial theoretical framework. Drawing from primary source documents, interviews, field visits to Lagos’ Eko Atlantic smart city development, and my experience at the Africa Smart Cities Conference, I discuss the implications of proposed policies, technologies, and infrastructure investments, all under the broader banner of public involvement. Overall, this chapter aims to critically distill a practical (but critical) and theoretical analysis of what policy-makers and formal government entities envision as Lagos’ future. The seventh chapter holistically reviews the conclusions of each of the following chapters and distills a response to each of my three original research questions. Through this discussion, I identify the opportunities and challenges associated with planning in varying contexts of informality, arriving at the basic premise that the two systems can function better collaboratively.

The eighth chapter highlights the key academic, professional, and policy-related takeaways from the case study. Herein, I discuss several possibilities for how local transit planning and engagement practice can be more effective in incorporating the needs of all actors to better enhance transport outcomes for all. 13 In the Afterword I discuss my positionality as a foreign researcher and the subsequent tensions in my argument and research findings. I reflect on my research process and methods and cite limitations and opportunities for potential future research studies.

14 Chapter 2: Overview of Transportation Conditions in Lagos

INTRODUCTION: INFORMAL TRANSIT SYSTEMS AND FORMAL TRANSIT PLANS IN LAGOS

Danfo 101: How the Informal Transit System Works in Lagos

The following section introduces the informal transit system and provides a base- level understanding of the various operations that serve as the main source of passenger transport in Lagos as of early 2019. A more in-depth analysis of individual actors and more nuanced relationships and governance structures is presented in Chapter 4. The informal transit system in Lagos may seem like utter chaos from an outsider’s perspective, but the free-market hustle is actually quite precise due in large part to the amount of cash that flows through this industry every single day. In general, there are a few basic transit typologies in this sector (illustrated in Figure 5 below): • Danfos: Vans outfitted to hold between 10-18 seated passengers. Yellow exterior indicates intra-city; blue exterior indicates airport shuttle; and white or other colors indicate inter-city travel. These vehicles are licensed to terminals and are only legally allowed to serve commercial passenger trips between those two end points. Most danfos are operated by a team of two individuals: 1) a driver and 2) a

conductor who calls out the destinations, collects bus fares, and pays off union

representatives (or ‘agberos8’) and police officers levying fees along the route. Uniformed (and armed) soldiers, police, and military personnel (or ‘staff’) ride danfos for free and drivers typically reserve the front-right seat in the cab for them (see Figure 4 below). Staff are not employed by the danfo operators, they are simply uniformed personnel traveling from one place to another, but their presence in the

8 Agberos are informal toll collectors employed by the NURTW (see Figure 21) 15 vehicle exempts the vehicle from being required to pay agberos fees9. A vast majority of passenger trips in Lagos occur in this mode of transit and as such danfos represent the predominant informal mode focus for this research project.

Figure 4: Danfo diagram from author’s sketchbook (July 2018).

• Molues: Large buses (often retired school buses from the Global North) outfitted to hold more than 20 passengers at a time. These buses feature permanent destination head-signs and only travel on the key corridors/arterials/expressways in which they are licensed to operate. Because of the polluting nature of these older diesel

9 Yemi and Rotimi – Urban Planning Students, University of Lagos. Conversation with L. Alcorn, July 16, 2018 16 vehicles, they have been outlawed along many corridors in metropolitan Lagos and are strictly forbidden on routes competing with the formal BRT route. • Okadas: Motorcycle taxis that generally serve first-last mile trips. Motorcycles idle around transit stations and major activity hubs and serve as a taxi to take passengers wherever they need to go for a price higher than that of the public transit fare, but

much less than that of a taxi or private ride-hailing vehicle. Furthermore, okadas are particularly popular in Lagos because they can cut through stand-still traffic. Due to the amount of drive-by robberies associated with okadas, these vehicles are

banned from operating in the CBD, on Victoria Island, and within . • Keke Maruwas: Tricycles that fit up to four passengers (one to the driver and three in the rear bench seat). Tricycles essentially serve the same function as danfos

for short distance trips on routes that may be of lower or infrequent ridership that would not ordinarily warrant the operation of a larger vehicle.

17

Figure 5: Example Images of informal transit in its operating environment in Lagos: Danfo (top-left*), Molue (top-right**), okada (bottom-right*), keke maruwa (bottom-left*) (Photo Source: *L. Alcorn, 7/2018 and **www.tate.org.uk, 2014)

All of these modes coalesce to form a network of informal transit routes designed to maximize revenue, which is often antithetical to maximizing convenience and comfort from the rider’s perspective. For example, danfo routes may ultimately be destined for a particular neighborhood (the name of which the conductor will yell out the window to advertise the service to passengers); however, the route that the driver takes may change each trip, which makes navigating to intermediate destinations challenging. Drivers consider a suite of anecdotal local knowledge built from their daily experience to weave a

18 path from origin to destination that best avoids traffic jams (or ‘go-slows’), police checkpoints and agberos10.

Formal Transportation Plans

The proposed solution to address the negative externalities of Lagos’ chaotic transport system involved the formation of LAMATA and the Strategic Transport Master Plan (STMP) at a macro-scale. At the more micro-scale, the Bus Reform Project specifically addresses local transportation issues and envisions a future with a variety of modern multi-modal transit hubs connected to one another with regularly scheduled, air- conditioned bus services that will ultimately replace the informal transit sector for all but shorter first/last mile trips11. This section lays out the government-centered plans in place to formalize the functions currently being carried out by the informal sector (as described above).

LAMATA Strategic Transport Master Plan (STMP)

This transport modernization plan involves the creation of an intermodal public transportation landscape composed of six new rail lines, seven new BRT lines, upgraded ferry service, a monorail system, a cable car system, and a new airport, among other proposed improvements (see Figure 6 and Figure 7).

10 On a danfo trip from Oyingbo to Bariga our driver took a short cut through a neighborhood in order to avoid paying the agberos along the main corridor. He still ran into some stationed in the area for this very reason and after a brief heated argument with a second one, our driver convinced him that he’d already paid a fee to another agbero further down the block. Personal Experiences and Conversation with Ms. Tina Amaka and Mr. Rotimi and L. Alcorn, July 21, 2018 11 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 19

Figure 6: Rendering presenting LAMATA’s vision of integrated transport at Marina Station including BRT, LRT, Ferry, and also inevitably an agglomeration of informal modes (Isaac, 2016).

20

Figure 7: LAMATA Strategic Transport Master Plan Maps of envisioned light-rail services (top) and BRT (bottom) (ALG Transportation Logistics, 2014). At the time of writing, the only route completed and operational on these maps is the yellow-colored BRT line from Marina to Ikorodu.

21 To date, LAMATA has successfully completed build-out of one BRT line, which connects the downtown Marina district all the way to Ikorodu on the other side of . Additionally, the Blue Line light-rail project has been initiated as a component of this plan as well and is projected to open with connections between the downtown Marina district and Mile 2 on the mainland by 2022.

Bus Reform Project: Phasing Out of Yellow Danfos with Formal Transit Hubs and Fleet Renewal

Ultimately, LAMATA envisions that modern, formal buses operated by professionally-trained staff on fixed routes with regular schedules will entirely replace the current informal network of tens of thousands of danfos in Lagos. Through this scheme, Lagos has been divided into five operational zones, each of which will be available for private operation companies to bid to operate under a concession agreement12. In order to avoid over-franchising of the operation, only one operational entity will be allowed within each designated zone. Ultimately, the bus reform project envisions that the 800+ danfo routes, presently operated with over 70,000 individual vehicles, will be able to be synthesized and rationalized into approximately 425 formal local bus routes13. Whether 5,000 air-conditioned 30-40-foot buses will truly be able to successfully fill the role of local intraregional public transport services remains to be seen, but the delivery of the first

820 buses has already taken place and the first zone of operation – Ikeja – is scheduled to start operations in 2019 with 23 formal transit routes14.

12 LAMATA will set the fares for local transit services, which will be less than BRT fares according to Dr. Desmond Amiegbebhor, LAMATA, Director of Bus Service Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 18, 2018. 13 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 14 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 22 Aside from new, improved rolling stock, the Bus Reform Project also calls for the construction of several state-of-the-art bus transfer facilities, which will serve as transit hubs to connect local transit options to trunk lines (BRT, LRT, etc.) and other first/last mile services. Transfer hubs feature an air-conditioned indoor facility outfitted with free Wi-Fi, ticket booths, food court, restrooms and ticket/tap card vending machines15 (see Figure 8 below). These facilities are designed to incorporate both intra and inter-regional services but will specifically be inaccessible to informal service providers – only permitted, formal transit providers will be allowed to serve these facilities.

Figure 8: Newly constructed Ikeja Bus Terminal (right, middle) and Oyingbo Transfer Hub under construction (right) (Photo source: L. Alcorn, 2018).

The Bus Reform Project envisions the “absolution” of yellow danfo bus operations into the new system16. In other words, informal operators will become free of their duties of serving the public transit needs of the city. LAMATA officials maintain that the new system will generate numerous job opportunities (not just drivers, but also mechanics, maintenance workers, bus washers, ticket agents, etc.) from which employees will have

15 Mr. Salloum Flaha, Fountain Construction Company, Engineer. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 26, 2018. 16 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 23 health and pension benefits and a steady salary rather than the precarity associated with daily remuneration practices in the informal system17.

17 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 24 Chapter 3: Research Design and Methodology

INTRODUCTION

This thesis endeavors to quantify the interaction between formal and informal transit modes in the planning process and the outcomes of this interplay from the end user’s perspective in Lagos, Nigeria. In order to accomplish this analysis, I adopted a mixed- methods research approach based on a critical, post-colonial theoretical framework that recognizes the positive elements situated within the informal transit system.

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH

Though the research objectives of this study predominantly pertain to transportation policy, design, and provision, the system would not function without the human element – passenger transport requires passengers, after all. As such, the human and cultural characteristics of travel and transportation in Lagos represent a large foundation, which must be constructed before considering the implications of policy decisions and design choices. Historical theory holds that no single method can possibly illustrate a complete picture (Bryman, 1988; Denzin, 1970). Furthermore, the nuance of understanding cultural contexts of human-related research efforts can only truly be explored through prolonged immersion into this space. Throughout my course of field work, I lived in both a residential neighborhood and on the University of Lagos, Akoka campus. I spent a substantial amount of my time commuting to conduct interviews and exploring the city’s transportation network while discussing my musings with three university students. This continuous dialogue, which continues to , shapes my anthropological analyses of Lagos in a way aptly described by Thomas Fibiger (2010, p.

30): “an anthropologist’s analysis is shaped in collaboration with informants in the field by

25 discussing situations and events while observing these informants and speaking with them about the observations”. Dr. Daniel Agbiboa, a professor at George Mason University, conducted an impressive immersive of the precarity of employment for informal transport workers in Lagos using an apprenticeship method by literally going undercover as a danfo conductor for eight months (Agbiboa, 2016; Downey, Dalidowicz, & Mason, 2015). My skin color (white) and lack of fluency in local Pidgin and Yoruba dialects and cultural norms prevented me from blending in to achieve the type of purely natural observations obtained in Agbiboa’s study. Consequently, to subvert the subject-expert binary embedded in Western planning traditions, I adopted a post-colonial epistemological research perspective buttressed by a qualitative framework acknowledging the large diversity of bodies of knowledge in this research effort as well as my role and position as a foreign researcher in Nigeria. In other words, I entered this research effort with an open mind, divorced of preconceived notions of planning processes and transportation system norms of the West, prepared to learn about an entirely different culture and body of thought and research in sub-Saharan Africa. Modern, Western planning, policy, and engineering literature prescribes informal transport systems of the Global South as a dirty, dangerous and congestion-inducing hinderance to transportation system development (Cervero & Golub, 2007; Golub, Balassiano, Araújo, & Ferreira, 2009; Paget-Seekins, 2015) and many political leaders in Nigeria have made this case to invest in modernizing Lagos to attract foreign investment. On the other hand, my research draws foundation from the research approaches of Dr. Pablo Salazar Ferro, Dr. Roger Behrens, and Dr. Lea Wester, which recognize the immense social, cultural, and practical values of the informal transit system (sometimes termed

“artisanal transports” or “paratransit services” in these bodies of literature) (Behrens, 26 McCormick, Orero, & Ommeh, 2017; Ferro, 2015a; Ferro, Golub, & Behrens, 2012; Godard, 2013a; Wester, 2018). As such, my in-depth observation and analysis of the integration of this system with the formal, government-sponsored and regulated transit system comes as an important exploration of the necessary relationship between formality and informality within the transport context in Lagos. Furthermore, this study can help inform the understanding of this processes occurring across the Global South as urban populations in the developing world rapidly expand.

RESEARCH DESIGN

I conducted my primary field work during July 2018. In order to collect a varied array of different datasets in the given time frame, I employed a mixed methods approach of gathering multiple forms of qualitative and quantitative data throughout the study period. Given the limited publicity and general paucity of past accessible research on this topic, it was important to evaluate the research objectives from many different perspectives and data sources in order to “triangulate” an epistemological understanding of the topic (Bowen, 2009, p. 28; Torrance, 2012, p. 111). To establish a thorough knowledge of system operation, culture, politics, and other topics relating to the transportation landscape in Lagos, I conducted a series of semi- structured interviews with key stakeholders, bolstered by several informal, unstructured interviews with other people involved in the transportation space. Furthermore, to corroborate this evidence, I also sought retrieval of primary documents in the form of planning reports, GIS files, engineering documents and related academic research. In order to document the physical spaces and corridors of study, I used photography and maintained a sketchbook and hand-written journal (see Figure 9 below). I strove to immerse myself [to the extent physically and practically possible] in the local transport

27 system as a common user, commuting to various points of interest, study sites, and interviews via public transit accompanied by local students. Finally, I attended the Africa Smart Cities Conference – hosted by the University of Lagos’ Faculty of Environmental Sciences – to glean the perspective of the vision of African academics of the future of the Lagos megacity. Each of these research methods is described in detail below.

Figure 9: Journal entries describing transit trip between two major destinations: the University of Lagos and the Ikeja Lagos State Government campus. The round-trip involved numerous transfers, and a plethora of local knowledge from the students who accompanied me on this trip on July 26, 2018.

General Site Documentation

Focal sites for the field research portion of this project were chosen in collaboration with local academic faculty, based on several factors ranging from functionality to access. Ultimately, the sites chosen represent a diverse of transit hubs in the Lagos metropolis ranging in terms of geographic location (see Figure 16), modal hierarchy (e.g. rail, bus, danfo, etc.), existing and future integration between formal and informal transit

28 services, function (intra-city travel as opposed to inter-city or long-distance bus services) and infrastructure. Though I visited many more sites than this list, the following areas serve as primary analysis sites for my field research: 1) Ikeja Bus Terminal (newly constructed): The newly constructed Ikeja bus terminal was officially commissioned to start service on March 29, 2018 by the Nigerian

President and represents the apex of bus terminals in with an iconic design that features intelligent transport systems (ITS) powered departure information, an air-conditioned terminal, food court, and free

wi-fi among other amenities (“Photos,” 2018). Though the terminal was not yet open to the public during my field work, LAMATA officials provided me with a tour of the facility, including the initial fleet of new buses that are planned to

ultimately replace the danfos through the course of the Bus Reform Project.

Figure 10: Ikeja Bus Terminal Station (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018)

2) Oshodi Bus Terminal (under construction): The same contractor who constructed the Ikeja Bus Terminal is in the process of constructing another terminal at Oshodi – this one unique in that it will feature three discrete sections to accommodate multi-modal integration. One will serve interstate buses and long-distance trips; one

will serve the formal BRT service; and the third will serve Lagos-based intra-city trips. The project, which is set to be complete in October of 2019, is tailored and

29 designed to fit the specific needs of this bustling hub with transit services that access nearly every part of Nigeria and beyond. The hub currently functions out of 17 different garages or parking lots, none of which have basic amenities like restrooms or formal information about services (News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), 2018).

Figure 11: Oshodi Bus Transfer Center/Hub (Photo Source: M. Olumide, 2018 (left) and D. Onah, 2018 (right) ©2018 Google)

3) Ojodu-Berger NURTW Garage (existing): It is also imperative that this study not just focus on formal terminals constructed by government contractors and focus at least a portion of the field work and research at an informal transit garage controlled

by a faction of the NURTW. This distinction provides a difference between government-funded infrastructure facilities and communally-funded, union-owned, off-street transit facilities. A safe, comparable location for this site was determined based on conversations with Dr. Wale Alade who put me into contact with Mr. Abidiun Taiwo of the Ojodu Berger branch of the NURTW. This location is situated adjacent to a BRT station and at the border of Lagos and Ogun States,

thereby serving as a transfer hub for inter-state services in addition to normal local travel.

30

Figure 12: Ojodu-Berger NURTW Garage (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018)

4) Oyingbo Bus Transfer Station (under construction): Oyingbo and the surrounding area is a sprawling marketplace arranged in a grid-like pattern at the terminus of

the existing Lagos Railway line. Muralta Muhammed Way, the main arterial roadway accessing the area from the north features a physically separated bus lane constructed by the Lagos State Government that was originally used for a BRT

system pilot separate from the LAMATA BRT line18. According to a LAMATA representative, the bus line was not profitable for the government and they have since abandoned the corridor, but the infrastructure remains. At Oyingbo Station,

LAMATA is constructing another state-of-the-art bus transfer facility similar to the

structure constructed at Ikeja featuring both intra and inter-city transit bays and an

indoor, air-conditioned transit center19.

18 Mr. Muyiwa Omopariola – Planner, LAMATA. Conversation with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018 19 Mr. Flaha Salloum – Engineer, Fountain Construction Co. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 26, 2018 31

Figure 13: Oyingbo Transit Center and Surrounding (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018)

5) National Theater Light Rail Station (under construction): Currently, the construction site for this metro station sits at an oddly quiet location sandwiched between three major expressway bridges. In the future, though, LAMATA

envisions this station to be bustling with activity as people coming from the mainland or the island transfer to/from other transit services to complete their journey. The elevated rail line was supposed to be operational starting in 2014 but is still far from completion. The initial segment between Marina station on the island and Mile 2 station on the mainland was estimated to be within 65-95% complete during my visit, with an estimated opening date of 2022 (Polycarp, 2018).

This station is important to include in the analysis because elevated rail systems cost orders of magnitude more than bus-based transit systems and the Lagos Strategic Transport Master Plan (STMP) proposes significant expansion of rail, bus, and waterway networks – all with little to no mention of informal modes like danfos, okadas, keke maruwas, or molues fulfilling any of the incredible demand for travel in the megacity in the future.

32

Figure 14: National Theater LRT Station (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018)

6) Marina/CMS/TBS Bus Garages/Stations: The Marina/CMS Bus Garages and Stations display carefully organized chaos on the edge of the Lagos central business district. Inclusion of a station on the island is important because it represents an entirely different sector of Lagos than the mainland. This location serves as the

current terminus of the BRT line and will serve as the future terminus of the Blue Line elevated light rail line. In addition to that, numerous private entities house garages for informal transit services that can take passengers to nearly anywhere in Lagos State. These garages and companies compete with one another for passengers even though rights to the routes have already been purchased from the NURTW.

Figure 15: Marina/CMS Informal Transit Garages (left, middle) and TBS Formal BRT/LAGBUS Terminal Station (right) (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018)

33

Figure 16: Study Sites in Lagos, Nigeria (Basemap Source: ©2018 Google, INEGI)

Semi-Structured Interviews with Key Stakeholders

Securing a full picture of the goings-on within the transportation space in Nigeria is nearly impossible to accomplish as a foreigner and even more difficult via email or skype from thousands of miles away. The novelty of a graduate student from Texas interested in conducting studies about buses in Nigeria engendered a positive curiosity from many of the contacts who I’d been in correspondence with, which helped me secure contacts with a variety of officials and professors before traveling to Africa. Physically traveling to Nigeria 34 was an imperative piece of my research project and allowed me unprecedented access to primary source documents, first-hand accounts/experiences and interviews with numerous key stakeholders in the Nigerian transportation industry. The experiential elements and primary source evidence in the form of semi-structured interviews provide the vast majority of the content analyzed as a part of this research effort.

A wide breadth of guidance exists in the literature related to selecting participants, preparing for, and conducting semi-structured interviews as a method. Because my research focuses on gathering information about transportation from a diverse pool of perspectives, a single, prescriptive set of questions would not be sufficient (Harrell, Bradley, & RAND Corporation, 2009). Furthermore, published research and online resources available for me to access before these conversations to draft interview questions were quite limited. As such, as a foreign researcher in the transportation space in Lagos, it remained important to allow the interviews to “unfold in a conversational manner offering participants the chance to explore issues they feel are important” (Longhurst, 2016, p. 143). The numerous interviews conducted during my field work in Nigeria first allowed me to gather background information from subject matter experts, professionals, and practitioners in the transportation industry in order to provide clarifying context to my research questions in the form of both opinions and factual evidence from various points- of-view. The semi-structured format allowed for a continuity of information gathered from all parties, representing these different perspectives, but also allowed the freedom to probe interviewees further about subject areas that may be more specific to their position. Best practices in semi--based research involves recording the interviews and concentrating predominantly on the conversation at hand rather than taking notes simultaneously (Cohen & Crabtree, 2006); however, only five of the twenty interviewees agreed to be recorded and since nearly all of the interviews were being 35 conducted solely by me, I relied upon the note-taking methodology. At the end of each day, while the conversations were still fresh in my mind, I would transcribe my hand-written journal notes into an ongoing Microsoft Word document to ensure that any shorthand or abbreviations from the conversations would not be lost in translation. Selection of research participants employed a “purposive sampling” (Longhurst,

2016, p. 148) methodology in order to gain perspectives from all levels of both informal and formal sectors of transportation in Lagos. Interviews were conducted with: • Planning, operations, and management of the formal sector

• Management of the informal sector20 • Engineering, design, and procurement from third-party consultants/business interests

• Academic researchers studying both informal and formal transportation sectors All interviewees participated voluntarily for no incentive other than to help further my research interests. The information gathered from the interviews is intended to be used for research purposes only to inform my findings on this project. A select number of interviewees asked that their names be held confidential. A detailed list of these interview accounts is documented below in Table 1.

20 One shortfall of this research was the inability to engage and interview any informal transportation workers (bus driver or conductor) due to the impracticality of a foreigner conducing this type of questioning during the worker’s shift. Additionally, most informal transport workers do not speak English. This missing perspective in the semi-structured interviews is a focus of the informal conversations part of this research project. Furthermore, a previous local researcher (fluent in Pidgin and Yoruba dialects) was able to conduct an ‘undercover’ ethnographic research project about the precarity of this work while employed as a danfo conductor, which is documented in the literature review (Agbiboa, 2016). 36 Table 1: In-Person Semi-Structured Interviews Conducted in Lagos, Nigeria (2018)

Name Date Location Title/Affiliation Representative

Mr. Ladi Ojora Workstation, Roadpreppers Transportation and Mr. Samuel 7/17/2018 Victoria Island Technologies Start-up Odeloye Deputy Director, Mr. Uthman LAMATA Corporate & Formal Transit Obafemi Shitta- 7/18/2018 Headquarters Investment Planning, Provider Bey LAMATA Dr. Frederick Director, Corporate & Oladeinde & LAMATA Formal Transit 7/18/2018 Investment Planning, Mr. Muyiwa Headquarters Provider LAMATA Omopariola LAMATA Planner, Service Mr. Muyiwa Formal Transit 7/18/2018 Headquarters Planning & GIS, Omopariola Planner and in vehicle LAMATA

Dr. Desmond LAMATA Director, Bus Systems, Formal Transit 7/18/2018 Amiegbebhor Headquarters LAMATA Provider

In-vehicle and [Name Director, Rail Systems, Formal Transit 7/19/2018 National Unknown] LAMATA Provider Theater Station

Mr. Olusegun Former BRT Bus Formal Bus 7/19/2018 In-vehicle Oguntunde Operator, Primero Driver

Head, Bus Operations, Formal Transit Mr. Seyi LAGBUS 7/20/2018 LAGBUS Asset Provider/ Osiyemi Headquarters Management Ltd. Operator LAGBUS Formal Transit [Name Operations Manager, 7/20/2018 Ojodu-Berger Provider/ Unknown] LAGBUS Bus Stop Operator Informal NURTW Mr. Abidiun Secretary of Ojodu Transport 7/20/2018 Ojodu-Berger Taiwo Branch, NURTW Union Branch Office Representative

37 Table 1 continued

Foreign [Name Eko Hotel, Representative from Contractor – Withheld, 7/21/2018 Victoria Island Yutong Bus Ltd. China Formal Bus Confidential] Procurement Lagos State Professor, Lagos State Academic Dr. Charles 7/23/2018 University University (LASU) – Subject Matter Asenime Campus School of Transport Expert Dr. (Mrs.) Lagos State Professor, Lagos State Academic Ogochukwu 7/23/2018 University University (LASU) – Subject Matter Ugboma Campus School of Transport Expert University of Professor, University Academic Dr. E. E. Ege 7/25/2018 Lagos, Faculty of Lagos (UNILAG) – Subject Matter of Geography Faculty of Geography Expert Engineering & Oyingbo Design Firm Mr. Salloum Station - Engineer, Fountain 7/26/2018 Constructing Flaha Construction Construction Company Formal Bus Site Transfer Depot Lagos State Head of Planning Unit, Government Mr. Rafiu Ministry of 7/26/2018 Lagos State Ministry Transportation Bankole Transport of Transport Regulator Headquarters

Questions for each interview varied based on the interviewee’s expertise and/or position, but the following list of questions served as the basic structure for each interview: • What is your agency’s role in transportation in Lagos? • What is your role within the agency? • What projects are currently ongoing at the moment? • How do you currently plan and design transit services and facilities? • Does planning and design incorporate the transportation needs of informal services

(e.g. danfos) in this process? • What sources of funding are leveraged to pay for transportation projects?

38 • If taxes or user fees are a part of this funding stream, how are they collected? • How does the operation of transit services work in your organization? • What data sources are used in the transportation planning process? • How are transit service and infrastructure currently planned and designed? Do the designs incorporate the needs of the informal sector operators?

• What role does transportation and the provision of certain projects play in local (or other levels of) politics? • Politicians have been calling for the modernization of the transport system in Lagos

for years, how do you think your organization has done with the given resources and what do you foresee in the future for transportation projects in Lagos? • Currently, Lagos State Government (LSG) has proposed to phase out informal

transport (yellow danfos) in a bus-reform project. How exactly will this be accomplished considering that the vast majority of transportation in the city currently takes place on these vehicles? • How is the public engaged in the planning process? (top-down or bottom-up) • How is the informal transportation sector engaged in the planning process? • In your opinion, what is the next big step for modernizing transport in Lagos?

Throughout the course of my fieldwork in and around Lagos State, I conducted a total of 15 semi-structured interviews with a total of approximately 20 key stakeholders in the urban transportation landscape. Interviewees hailed from all sides of the transportation sector in Lagos and represented government regulators and formal transit providers, informal transport operators, union leaders, academic subject matter experts, bus operators, and foreign contractor interests.

39 Informal, Unstructured Interviews with People Using Transportation

Unstructured interviews and informal conversations allowed me to gain a deeper perspective of the transportation system and the interaction of end users with the planning, operation, and daily use of transit services in Lagos. Before traveling to Nigeria, I connected with another professor, Dr. M.O. Olawole of Obafemi Awolowo University in

Ile-Ife, Nigeria, regarding his past research projects involving the BRT line implementation in Lagos. Dr. Olawole virtually introduced me to two key contacts at the University of Lagos; a professor of Urban Planning, Dr. Wale Alade, and a masters-level student in the Department of Geography, Ms. Tina Amaka, both of whom contributed valuable insights and helpful guidance to my research design and execution. This connection with Dr. Wale Alade, Head of the Department of Urban and Regional Planning within the University of

Lagos’ Faculty of Environmental Science, allowed me access to several university students studying urban planning issues in and around Nigeria. Dr. Alade assigned two of his premier final-year undergraduate students to help me with my research project – Mr. Olayemi S. Adeyemi (or “Yemi”) and Mr. Ariyo Oluwarotimi Emmanuel (or “Rotimi”). Due to the paucity of online materials documenting the ins and outs of the informal transit system from both an operations and end-user perspective, broad open-ended questions allowed these conversations to go in many directions and clarifying questions helped to fill in the gaps for a full perspective on this topic from multiple sources (Harrell et al., 2009). Initial conversations with students from the University of Lagos, Akoka Campus, on July 12 and 16, 2018 filled in my base level knowledge of how passengers use both the formal and informal transit systems to navigate the Lagos metropolis. Yemi, Rotimi, and Tina all professed a thorough understanding of the practical nature and theoretical underpinning of urban and transport planning phenomena present in Lagos. As such, consistent conversations with these fellow academics provided me with further 40 nuanced insight of government transportation plans from the local perspective. Further conversations throughout the duration of my trip, both in person and via the WhatsApp texting phone application, allowed me to establish a rich perspective on the existing conditions and future needs and plans for the Lagosian transportation system. Though some of the semi-structured interviews listed above involved commuting by public transport, safety concerns of riding transit alone as a foreigner and time constraints of a limited travel budget meant that I spent a number of hours riding in ride- hailing vehicles using the Uber and Taxify apps21. To make the best of this in-vehicle travel time, I held informal, unstructured interview conversations with nearly all twenty-two drivers who transported me throughout my trip. App-based ride-hailing in Nigeria is a relatively new phenomenon and many of the drivers have past experience in other parts of the transportation sector. Furthermore, these drivers spend most of their day traversing the streets of Lagos and as such many had very strong opinions about transportation policy, ongoing/future projects and government regulation of transport services within the megacity, since decisions about these topics have the potential to directly impact their well- being and ability to earn wages. These conversations provided yet another stream of insight to the general specified in my research objectives.

Primary Document Retrieval

Another purpose of physically traveling to Nigeria to conduct field work involved the retrieval of primary source documents as a data source. Document analysis as a part of this qualitative research project pairs with interviews/conversations, participant observation/photography and experiential journaling as a means of “triangulation” in an

21 Throughout my course of field work in Lagos, I spent upwards of 20 hours on 22 trips commuting in ride-hailing vehicles. 41 effort to “seek convergence and corroboration through the use of different data sources and methods” (Bowen, 2009, p. 28; Torrance, 2012, p. 111). According to Bowen (2009), primary documents in mixed-methods research have five purposes, all of which directly apply to this research project: 1) Contextual insight in the form of background information and historically relevant

circumstances 2) Help define and refine research questions/objectives 3) Provide supplementary research data

4) Tracking change and development of schools of thought, public sentiment, or agency goals and directives 5) Compare with other resources acquired via other methods to corroborate evidence

Over the course of my field work in Nigeria, I collected planning documents/reports, GIS files, engineering documents, and relevant academic manuscripts and reports (see Table 2 below).

Table 2: Primary Source Documents Obtained in Lagos, Nigeria (2018)

Document Date of Institution Type Sector Name Publish Operational Lagos State Formal & Strategies Goals/Mission Government – Informal (Short, Medium 2018 Statement Guidance Ministry of Transport and Long Document Transport Regulator Term) Lagos State Formal & Assigned Goals/Mission Government – Informal Ministerial 2018 Statement Guidance Ministry of Transport Responsibilities Document Transport Regulator Lagos District+ University of Academic Road Network 2018 GIS Files Lagos Resource Shapefiles 42 Table 2 continued

LAMATA Formal Transit Strategic Holistic Transportation 12/2014 LAMATA Operator/ Transport Master Plan Administrator Master Plan LAMATA Bus Route Formal Transit Shapefiles 2018 LAMATA GIS Files Operator/ Before/After Administrator Reform Project University of Evaluation of Lagos – Dept. the BRT-Lite Academic 12/2017 of Geography: PhD Dissertation Operations in Study Dr. Olukemi Lagos Efunshade An University of Investigation Lagos – Dept. into the Impact Published Journal Academic 2013 of Geography: of Okada Ban Article Study E.E. Ege & in Lagos E.E. Michael Metropolis Appraisal of Literature on University of the Prohibition Lagos – Dept. Published Journal Academic of Motorcycle 2013 of Geography: Article Study Use in E.E. Ege & Metropolitan E.E. Michael Lagos Africa Smart University of Background City Lagos – Academic information, agenda Conference 07/2018 Faculty of Conference and presentation Agenda & Environmental Proceedings materials Proceedings Sciences

Primary Source Documents Obtained in Lagos, Nigeria (2018) Planning Documents/Reports

Research Objective 1, which seeks to investigate what extent policy and governance can be leveraged to integrate formal and informal operations, hinges upon the

43 data gathered through primary document retrieval. While interviews with key stakeholders provide nuanced insight into the planning processes, the methodologies are documented and embodied within in the planning documents like the Lagos Strategic Transport Master Plan. Additionally, formal documentation of agency directives and goals within the state Ministry of Transport and LAMATA help establish global goals and purposes of each organization. It is also telling, and not particularly surprising, that no formal documents of this nature exist within the largely fragmented informal transport sector.

GIS Files

Well-curated, usable, geospatial data is not highly prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa. Still, planners at LAMATA maintain GIS files relating the formal transit system and past planning efforts. Mr. Muyiwa Omopariola serves as the GIS expert within LAMATA’s planning department and has shared the current and proposed formal bus network representing the Bus Reform Project overhaul. Academic sources at the University of Lagos provided me with basemap materials and existing road network shapefiles. Mr. Ladi Ojora and Mr. Samuel Odeloye are two of the three founders of the transportation start-up Roadpreppers, Inc., which through crowdsourcing and other creative techniques has been able to develop a lite-app software platform called lara.ng which provides navigational instructions to users seeking how to travel from one place to another via public transport in Lagos. The back-end of their system includes a continually updated network of bus routes, which includes both informal danfo routes and formal BRT and LAGBUS routes. I was hoping to acquire some form of this data in order to perform a before/after spatial analysis of the conversion of the danfo routes to higher-capacity formal bus routes through the course of the Lagos Bus Reform Project. Unfortunately, Roadpreppers, Inc. was undergoing some legal processes to secure that data for commercial

44 purposes and had been advised by their legal counsel to not share the data for academic or any other non-commercial purposes. As such, I was not able to obtain this data.

Engineering Documents

In order to further understanding of the various facets of transit infrastructure design considered imperative in the Lagosian context (Research Objective #2), I sought to obtain engineering documents of multiple transit hubs being constructed across the metropolis, namely Oshodi, Oyingbo, and Ikeja. Unfortunately, these types of documents are deemed confidential and I was not able to obtain them; however, I was permitted to tour the construction sites and meet with consulting engineers at these stations in addition to the elevated blue rail line station under construction adjacent to the National Theater.

Relevant Academic Studies & Past Research Efforts

Seeing that Lagos serves as home to two of the top universities in the country and a unique transportation landscape that begs to be studied, I also sought to acquire any past research efforts conducted on the formal or informal transportation sectors in the city. As explained by professors at both University of Lagos and Lagos State University, research about the informal transit system is quite difficult to carry out and as such, I found little evidence of past academic work examining the danfo system from the local university archives. Through my fieldwork, I was able to obtain hard copies of some previously published academic articles about past transport policy pertaining to a ban of okada first- last mile transit options and a doctoral dissertation evaluating the BRT operations in Lagos from 2008 to 2014.

45 Immersive Experience - Participant Observation and Photography

In order to establish a thorough understanding of the functionality of the informal and formal transit systems and the interplay between the two, I immersed myself into the transportation system itself to practice what some ethnographers have termed “observation of participation” (Tedlock, 1991, p. 69). This form of research involves simultaneously experiencing and observing my own and others’ participation in the act of travel, rather than simply serving as a passive observer (Tedlock, 1991). Past research contends that participant observation is an exceptional methodology for studying the organization of people and patterns of movement (Jorgensen, 1989), a pivotal factor of any transportation system. Throughout the duration of my stay, I traversed a huge amount of the sprawling megacity using a variety of travel modes including formal services like the BRT, Lagbus, and Uber and informal services in the form of danfos, keke maruwas, and okadas. Though I certainly could not conduct this observation “unobserved” (Agbiboa, 2016, p. 3), I was still able to experience the system as an everyday passenger and discuss the experiences and their meaning with the local students afterwards. I maintained a running journal of my experiences and mapped out routes, transfer points, transit fares, and other indicators for each transit trip in my sketchbook. Over the course of my field work, I also captured around

700 photographs of transportation infrastructure, systems, or human interaction with it. Photography documenting participant observation at various locations is shown below in Figure 17 and action shots from transit adventures are shown in Figure 18.

46

Figure 17: Top-left: View from the back of a danfo, Top-right: Pedestrians walking alongside freeway on-ramp to access Iyana Oworo Bus Stop, Bottom-left: Beginning of the Third Mainland Bridge at Iyana Oworo Bus Stop, Bottom- right: Pedestrian and danfo activity on the streets of Yaba (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018)

47

Figure 18: Public Transit Adventures with Yemi (top-left & bottom-right), Rotimi (top- right) and Tina (top-right and bottom-left) (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018)

Africa Smart Cities Conference

Finally, to top off my experiences, Dr. Wale Alade invited me to attend the Africa Smart Cities conference, a gathering of professors and students from numerous disciplines to present research pertaining to the future of Lagos as a smart megacity in the context of a rapidly growing African continent (see Figure 19 below). The conference lasted two days and featured lectures and presentations about existing conditions and future proposals for the African Smart City, a model derived from “superstar” cities like New York, Los

48 Angeles, San Francisco, and London22, but distinct in an element that can only be described through experiencing urban Africa first hand. The history of colonialism is still quite fresh in a developing world attempting to leap-frog many traditional rungs of the development ladder.

Figure 19: Opening Panel for the Africa Smart City Conference (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018)

22 Dr. Toyin Ogundipe – Vice Chancellor, University of Lagos. Opening remarks as Chief Host of Africa Smart Cities Conference, July 24, 2018 49 Chapter 4: Informal Economies and Their Role in the Public Transport System in Lagos, Nigeria

INTRODUCTION

As discussed earlier, the informal sector dominates passenger transport in Lagos; however, existing operations and constructs of informal transit operations are not working particularly well for most actors in the system. This chapter presents a literature review documenting informal transit systems across the Global South, followed by a section specific to the Lagos context. After introducing these topics, the narrative examines each of the individual actors and organizations that collaborate, compete, and/or interact to produce the informal transport system in Lagos. This section documents the relationships between these entities, being mindful of the theoretical discussions surrounding informality in a rapidly urbanizing megacity of the Global South. Finally, this chapter is concluded with a theoretical discussion of urban informality and its importance in the urban landscape of the Global South, particularly in the passenger transport sector.

BACKGROUND AND HISTORY OF THE INFORMAL TRANSPORT SECTOR

Informal Transit Systems in the Global South

Informal transit systems are prevalent across the Global South, predominantly filling a gap in transportation demand that has not been sufficiently provided through the formal system. Aside from providing a valuable public service to the community at large, this sector also offers employment opportunities to lower socio-economic status individuals with little to no formal education or training (Cervero & Golub, 2007). However, these opportunities may be masked under the names of official organizations that operate more like street gangs than a public transit agency. The “war for the cent” (or la Guerra del Centavo) in Latin America has become so serious that between 2007 and 50 2013 nearly 1,000 bus drivers in Guatemala City were slaughtered by rival gangs looking to levy taxes on transit operations. This pushed Guatemalan bus driver to the very top of the world’s most dangerous jobs list (Elbein, 2013). Recognizing the negative externalities of relying on these informal small-scale operations to provide the majority of transit service in developing cities, numerous places in the world have invested in formal BRT or rail projects. This process often involves reconfiguring transit network design from a one-seat ride model to a trunk and feeder system (Paget-Seekins, 2015), typically requiring a passenger transfer between services or service types along the way. For example, in 2007, Santiago, Chile, created the Transantiago system, integrating their bus network with the city’s metro system (Paget- Seekins, 2015). Informal operators consolidated into various cooperatives or companies and contracted with the city for licenses to provide feeder services in different neighborhoods. Other cities in Latin America, including Bogotá, Colombia, have undergone similar transformations; however, two of the permit zones sold to private companies for feeder operation there have been unsuccessful and have fallen bankrupt (Ferro, 2018). Engagement of the informal sector in this decision-making process ranges from fostering to forcing cooperation. According to research from Mexico City, the former option tends to be costlier overall, due to the conflicts and compromises that result (Flores-

Dewey & Zegras, 2012). Furthermore, these negotiations must be very context-sensitive in order to achieve the intended goal of true integration between the two (often competing) systems (Ferro & Behrens, 2015). Other studies have focused on various methods for integrating informal transit modes with the build out of formalized transit systems, some suggesting the amalgamation of such services into the formal system itself, others suggesting that they should be left to self-regulate (Godard, 2013a; Heinrichs, Goletz, & Lenz, 2017; Hidalgo & Huizenga, 51 2013). A research project in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil analyzed the utility and monetary impacts of 11 transportation policy objectives ranging from outright ban of informal minivan services to investing in formalized modes to increased or decreased regulation of each mode. This study found that simply investing more in formalized services (BRT or rail) proved to be the best option in terms of net benefit of people traveling along the corridor (Golub et al., 2009). Other places in sub-Saharan Africa have chosen to foster, but also regulate the informal system. As a comparative case, informal paratransit services in Kenya, locally known as matatus, were legalized in 1973 by presidential decree and more recent regulations have been put into place requiring operators to outfit vehicles with seat belts, display route details, and employ their drivers and conductors on a permanent salaried basis, among other requirements, though it seems enforcement of these regulations is rather lax (Behrens et al., 2017). More notably, since 2010 matatu businesses have been required to incorporate into Savings and Credit Cooperatives (SACCOs) to renew operating licenses (Behrens et al., 2017), which has resulted in a system more amenable to regulation. Similarly, in Dakar, Senegal, formalization has occurred gradually over several years as informal operators can voluntarily form Economic Interest Groups (EIGs), which have the opportunity to benefit from a government fleet renewal program. Through this initiative, the federal government offers financial assistance to EIGs to purchase new medium-sized transit vehicles. The benefits of this program are contingent on the operation of specific lines with pre-defined stops and regulated fares (Thiam, 2016).

ACTORS WITHIN THE INFORMAL TRANSIT SECTOR IN LAGOS

Currently a “hybrid” (Ferro et al., 2012) public transport system operates in Lagos (see Figure 20 below), but the actual integration between formal and informal modes

52 remains vague. The management structure of the informal system is based on an opaque round-table of relationships, agreements, and cash payments between transportation union leadership and various levels of state and federal government. While operation of the system is left up to individual operators, enforcement and regulation of the system inherently involves bribery and regularly expected payments to both formal and informal authority figures.

Figure 20: Operational management structure of the informal passenger transportation sector in Lagos State, Nigeria.

Informal transit services dominate motorized urban transportation in Nigerian cities today. Minibuses, locally known as danfos or molues, account for 43% of all daily trips taken in Lagos (Gorham, 2017). More notably, they account for 73% of all motorized trips in the megacity (Gorham, 2017). Meanwhile the formal bus network provided by the Lagos

Area Metropolitan Transport Authority (LAMATA) accounts for just 2% of all trips and 4% of motorized travel in Lagos (Gorham, 2017). Clearly, these informal transit services 53 provide a vital community need that due to lack of fiscal and institutional capacity cannot be adequately provided entirely by the government (Cervero & Golub, 2007). While these informal transit services can complement formal transit service -- by serving neighborhoods that are poorly served by formal operators and responding promptly to changing market demands -- they also come with the downsides of vicious, sometimes violent, competition among drivers for passengers, unsafe driving behavior, and general lack of proper vehicle maintenance (Cervero & Golub, 2007). The lack of regulation results in a “laissez-faire environment” of horizontally-structured informal transit workers grinding to make ends meet (Cervero, 2000; Cervero & Golub, 2007, p. 446). All commercial transit drivers in Lagos are required to be affiliated with the National Union of Road Transportation Workers (NURTW), the most politicized and violent union in Nigeria by some accounts (Agbiboa, 2016; Albert & Fourchard, 2007). The union collects dues from transit workers illegally, occasionally in collusion with police, as a sort of user fee for passage on a roadway or bus station. Agberos take advantage of the city’s crippling traffic congestion and leverage fees in gridlocked traffic under a variety of guises, ranging from ‘owo ale’ (money for night) to simply ‘owo union’ (union money), and drivers know of the stiff and sometimes fatal consequences for refusing payment. Despite having been outlawed since 2015, this “predatory economy”, is ingrained in a system that may be directly connected to local political figures, going up to the state governor and local council chairman (Agbiboa, 2016, p. 945) – an allegation that seems likely, considering a recent public confession from Adeola Williams to several assassinations he carried out under the direct order of the former chairman of the Lagos branch of the NURTW (Hanafi, 2018). Despite these systematic issues of corruption and the unpopular nature of these taxes, the vast majority of Lagosians rely on these services as their only viable source of reliable transport. The following sections serve to describe 54 the numerous actors that participate either directly or indirectly in the service delivery of the informal transit system.

Leadership: The National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW)

The NURTW serves as the official union of all individuals involved in the commercialized informal transit system of Nigeria. The union maintains a strong negotiating presence in both local and national politics and functions on a hierarchical structure of State, Branch, and Unit offices across the country23. Membership is mandatory and provides arguably minimal benefits to the base level system operators, conductors, and agberos other than the privilege to be employed in the sector. Representatives of the union claim that membership also offers access to “security”24, but protection from who remains unclear; it seems that this benefit only comes in the form of not being ransacked by

NURTW representatives themselves25. In the context of the local Ojodu branch, the NURTW owns the motor park at the terminus of many routes. Enterprising individuals who want to ply a route within proximity of this park must register their vehicles with the local NURTW branch office and should also register their route with the Lagos State Government’s Ministry of Transport or otherwise risk a 20,000 Naira fine (and likely some type of physical punishment) for illegal routing26. From the perspective of the NURTW, the informality of the system is a good thing. According to Mr. Abidun Taiwo, secretariat of the Ojodu Branch, the NURTW are the

23 Mr. Abidun Taiwo, NURTW Secretariat of the Ojodu-Berger Branch Office. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 20, 2018. 24 Mr. Abidun Taiwo, NURTW Secretariat of the Ojodu-Berger Branch Office. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 20, 2018. 25 [Confidential Informant], Yutong Bus Ltd. Representative, Interview with L. Alcorn, July 21, 2018 26 Mr. Abidun Taiwo, NURTW Secretariat of the Ojodu-Berger Branch Office. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 20, 2018. 55 subject matter experts on transportation in Lagos and can run the system more effectively than the government27. What the organization lacks, however, is financing. Even though a 1999 constitutional mandate and more recent legislation directly prohibits the collection of money on the roadway and at publicly-owned motor parks/bus stations, one can be assured that agberos are omnipresent in the Lagos transportation landscape to generate this stream of revenue for the union (Agbiboa, 2016; Nwannekanma, 2015). The NURTW maintains a strong stance against the full formalization of the bus system, making the viable claim that a shift to the new system will result in increased crime due to the wave of unemployment of low-skilled workers previously employed by the informal transport sector28. NURTW officials have a lot to lose – in terms of both power and money – with the formalization of the bus system. Thus, they promote the idea that the government is a novice when it comes to transport and that the operation, regulation, and provision of the city’s public transport should come under the management purview of the union29. Other perspectives about the NURTW organization range from worthy stakeholder to illicit street gang. LAMATA maintains that the NURTW and those that own buses have an equity stake in the upcoming Bus Reform Project; however, past partnerships with the NURTW in the context of formal transit provision did not ultimately pan out. A cooperative of NURTW ex-danfo drivers and owners originally served as the operating entity for the

BRT route, but this agreement did not last and eventually was taken over by a private company30. Other representatives with past business dealings with the NURTW maintain

27 Mr. Abidun Taiwo, NURTW Secretariat of the Ojodu-Berger Branch Office. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 20, 2018. 28 Mr. Abidun Taiwo, NURTW Secretariat of the Ojodu-Berger Branch Office. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 20, 2018. 29 Mr. Abidun Taiwo, NURTW Secretariat of the Ojodu-Berger Branch Office. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 20, 2018. 30 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA – Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 56 that the organization functions more as a “mafia of crooked liars” than a professional union31. A confidential informant that I interviewed claimed that the NURTW’s main function is not so much related to transport, but rather as a bridge for underground activities deeply rooted in the institutional corruption embedded in the hierarchical Nigerian political system32. Louis Theroux’s BBC documentary Law and Disorder in Lagos and numerous local news articles illustrate the systemic violence that fuels the NURTW hierarchy and its control of the streets (Agbiboa, 2016; Hanafi, 2018; Nwannekanma, 2015; Theroux, 2010). The state government has attempted to tame and regulate them on numerous occasions throughout both the Fashola and Ambode administrations, but to no avail. Some say there will be a time for them to go, but they will have to be compensated to leave33.

Rank-and-File: Informal Transit Operators, Conductors, and Agberos

The informal sector is managed in such a way that private operators will make the best out of their current situation34. Many danfo drivers do not own the vehicle which they drive, but rather lease it daily from an owner or cooperative. Owning and operating a danfo is a risky business and even union leaders with the means to own and maintain small fleets of vehicles complain of their ‘plight’ of entrusting other individuals to pilot their investments on the unpredictable streets of Lagos35. The required daily remittances that drivers pay to owners are typically non-negotiable and as such the driver does everything

31 [Confidential Informant], Yutong Bus Ltd. Representative, Interview with L. Alcorn, July 21, 2018 32 [Confidential Informant], Yutong Bus Ltd. Representative, Interview with L. Alcorn, July 21, 2018 33 [Confidential Informant], Yutong Bus Ltd. Representative, Interview with L. Alcorn, July 21, 2018 34 Dr. E. E. Ege & Ms. Tina Amaka, University of Lagos – Dept. of Geography. Interview by L. Alcorn, July 25, 2018 35 In my interview with a local NURTW union leader, he shared his personal story of owning, operating, and maintaining a handful of danfo minibuses, shrouded in complaints of unforeseen maintenance problems. He elaborated about the lack of guarantees associated with properly functioning vehicles and an inconsistent revenue stream even if expensive mechanical work is completed. Mr. Abidun Taiwo, NURTW Secretariat of the Ojodu-Berger Branch Office. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 20, 2018. 57 in his power to maximize revenues – driving at dangerously high speeds and overloading passengers are simply byproducts of the system (Agbiboa, 2016). This image of unsafe operations is magnified by the fact that a 2013 medical study in Lagos confirmed that of 65,000 informal transport workers tested, 22 percent were diagnosed as partially blind and 99 percent suffered from hypertension (Akoni, 2013).

The agberos collecting fees at bus stops and intersections function under the same conditions; they must meet a minimum quota in order to retain their status in the NURTW union and avoid demotion, or worse36. Agberos levy fees at certain cordons along the road or at popular bus stops. These employed agents of the NURTW have established a system whereby they can track vehicles that have paid by marking a code on the front windshield, charging drivers for the right to ply the corridor each day37. Agberos, typically armed with clubs or knives (see Figure 21), will happily relieve danfo drivers who do not comply with the fee payments of headlights or rear view mirrors, and repeat offenders will usually face some sort of public beating, or in some cases, execution (Agbiboa, 2016).

Figure 21: Agbero pictured in the yellow suit along the Lagos Badagry Expressway near Iyana Iba. Agbero fees vary widely and often involve some back and forth negotiation, but the more mobile agbero, typically armed with some sort of weaponry has the upper hand (Image Source: Google 2016).

36 Yemi and Rotimi – Urban Planning Students, University of Lagos. Conversation with L. Alcorn, July 16, 2018 37 Yemi and Rotimi – Urban Planning Students, University of Lagos. Conversation with L. Alcorn, July 16, 2018 58 The whole system propagates a predatory competition spread amongst all levels of management and operations of the informal system. All actors involved work assiduously to make ends meet and avoid systemically guaranteed violence, but the outcomes of their hustle result in significantly different results; union leadership drive around in expensive, foreign (and sometimes armored) SUVs, while the workers at the bottom of the chain, drivers and conductors, reportedly take home approximately 500 Naira each on a given day (approximately $2.50 USD based on conversion at time of study) after remuneration to the owner and agberos fees are taken into account (Agbiboa, 2016). Danfo drivers and conductors most often do not read or speak fluent English, a prerequisite for work in the formal transport sector38 and thus would stand to lose their livelihood in a full conversion to a system devoid of informal transit services. This paired with an operating environment where alcohol consumption and drug abuse by drivers and conductors is quite apparent, fuels the perspective that it will be difficult to transition informal operators into formal positions. (Agbiboa, 2016).

Passengers/General Public

The organization and operation of the informal transit system hinges on the concept of maximizing revenues within the constraints of the crumbling roadway network designed for the movement of far fewer than 23 million people. Since everyone wants to maximize, much of the costs are ultimately pushed to the end users of the system39. Though transportation infrastructure projects have ramped up in recent years, providing safe spaces for pedestrian movement has certainly not been at the forefront of the political agenda.

38 According to a former Primero BRT Operator, the job requires an English language interview and demonstration of education and skills that danfo drivers would likely not profess. Mr. Olusegun Oguntunde – former Primero bus driver, Interview by L. Alcorn, July 19, 2018 39 Dr. E. E. Ege & Ms. Tina Amaka, University of Lagos – Dept. of Geography. Interview by L. Alcorn, July 25, 2018 59 Consequently, those confined to using the informal transit system face the downsides of unreliability, discomfort, and danger associated with each trip40. Danfos have no set schedules and no single map exists documenting the vast network of routes that serve the city. Navigation on the danfo network requires local knowledge and getting from one place to another typically involves multiple transfers at informal transit hubs41 (see Figure 22 below). Danfo fares derive roughly from distance traveled in the vehicle, but since danfo operators control the price of their services, conductors often increase the price when demand exceeds the supply of vehicles in the area42. Furthermore, since each danfo operator operates their routes individually, no discounts are afforded to transfers and drivers standardly wait to completely fill their vehicle before departing on their route43. This results in long trip times to traverse a metropolis spanning 1,170 square kilometers – roughly the same size as the jurisdictional boundaries of New York City, but with more than 2.5 times the population of America’s most populated city -- globally renowned for having the worst traffic congestion in the world (Taylor, 2012).

40 Yemi and Rotimi – Urban Planning Students, University of Lagos. Conversation with L. Alcorn, July 16, 2018 41 A round trip transit journey from University of Lagos (Akoka Campus) to the Marina area CBD on required the use of two modes of informal transit (keke maruwas and danfos), travel in a total of 7 distinct vehicles, approximately 5 kilometers of walking and 5 hours of total travel time. Personal Experiences and Conversation with Ms. Tina Amaka and Mr. Rotimi and L. Alcorn, July 21, 2018 (see map of travel from personal journal in Figure 22 (left)) 42 Typically, the fare of a danfo trip from the UNILAG Gate to Yaba Transfer Station (approximately 2.7 km) amounts to 50 Naira/passenger; however, when rain, traffic, etc. results in more people waiting at the UNLIAG Gate stop than available vehicles, then the conductor will raise the price to 70 N or 100 N to capitalize on the situation. Personal Experiences and Conversation with Yemi, July 20, 2018 (see map of travel from personal journal in Figure 22 (right)) 43 Personal Experience at Unilag Gate Bus Stop and Ojota Motor Park and Conversation with Yemi and L. Alcorn, July 20, 2018. 60

Figure 22: Personal journal entries describing transit trips taken between the two major destinations in Lagos. (Left) Trip between the University of Lagos, Akoka (UNILAG) Campus and the Marina/CMS/TBS central business district. Overall, the round-trip journey involved two modes of transport, boarding seven distinct vehicles and five hours of travel over the PM peak period on Wednesday, July 25, 2018. (Right) Trip between UNILAG and Ojodu- Berger NURTW branch. One-way journey involved two danfos, a BRT, and an okada on July 20, 2018.

Aside from wasted time and paying multiple fares, transfers between services often require a significant amount of walking along arterial roadways and other non-pedestrian friendly pathways44. Informal transit hubs tend to exist along both formal pull-off areas constructed by the Lagos State Government and at NURTW-controlled motor parks located at the confluence of major roadways45. A study in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia found that presence of public transport terminals at intersections tend to correspond with more

44 Commuting from the Unilag Gate Bus Stop to Iyana Oworo Station typically involves taking a keke maruwa or danfo from the Unilag Gate to Berger Market and walking down an expressway on-ramp with no pedestrian facilities. Due to traffic around the marketplace, our keke maruwa off-loaded us prior to reaching the market. We walked along the stalls on pieces of plywood loosely covering an open sewage drain until we reached the northern end of Berger Market where we were able to jump in another keke maruwa to take us down the freeway on-ramp to the Iyana Oworo Station bus stop located at the landfall of the Third Mainland Bridge Expressway. Personal Experience and Conversations with Ms. Tina Amaka and Mr. Rotimi, July 21, 2018 (see map of travel from personal journal in Figure 22) 45 Yemi and Rotimi – Urban Planning Students, University of Lagos. Conversation with L. Alcorn, July 16, 2018 61 collisions, many involving pedestrians going to/from the terminal (Tulu, Haque, Washington, & King, 2015). This same phenomenon is certainly at play in Nigeria as well where 44% of all traffic fatalities involve pedestrians or cyclists (Gorham, 2017; World Health Organization, 2013). In Lagos nearly all roads in mainland Lagos lack formal sidewalks and even fewer allocate dedicated or protected right-of-way for cyclists.

Furthermore, most intersections lack formal crosswalks and even though elevated pedestrian bridges are present in some areas, it seems that most of the time pedestrians don’t bother to use them and instead “dart across the street dancing through fast moving traffic in a sort of death ballet that somehow just barely works.”46 A featured paper presentation at the Africa Smart City conference went so far as to advocate that a solution to “no one using pedestrian bridges” would be a “skymall”, or rather a pedestrian bridge with miniature market stalls that could be financed and built in a public-private partnership

(PPP), to simultaneously generate revenue and promote pedestrian safety47. Lastly, the dangers of informal transport in Lagos do not halt once aboard a vehicle. Aside from the fact that nearly all vehicles lack fire extinguishers and seat belts, highway robbery remains commonplace. A situation called “one chance” occurs occasionally where criminals pose as a public bus in the rowdy morning peak hours, but instead of dropping off passengers at their destination, the fake operator-conductor duo rob the passengers and dump them in the middle of nowhere48.

46 Excerpt from personal journal entry. L. Alcorn, July 16, 2018 47 Dr. Olumide Olusanya – Featured Paper Presentation at the Africa Smart Cities Conference, July 25, 2018 48 Dr. E. E. Ege & Ms. Tina Amaka, University of Lagos – Dept. of Geography. Interview by L. Alcorn, July 25, 2018 62 DISCUSSION: THE DOMINANCE OF THE INFORMAL CITY IN LAGOS

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the unregistered businesses operating within the informal economy amount of 65% of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (“Nigeria’s informal economy accounts for 65% of GDP – IMF,” 2017). As availability of formal job opportunities continue to drop in an age of neoliberal policies and mass migration to urban centers, self-employment has become a leading means of making ends meet in Nigerian cities (Agbiboa, 2016); consequently, the informal sector makes up 76% of existing employment in Africa (Sow, 2018). In the transit sector, this ladder extends from the very bottom rungs of society all the way up to local (and even national) political figures/regimes. Some observers of the Lagos landscape believe that the entrepreneurial nature of the informal system possess a sense of innate beauty. World-renowned architect Rem Koolhaas describes the streets of Lagos through the lens of an ‘aesthetic of chaos’, which hides behind it governance supported only by the mutual dependency of individual agents of the population (Gandy, 2005; Haynes, 2007; Hect & Simone, 1994; Packer, 2006; Pinther, Förster, & Hanussek, 2012). What this stylized perspective ignores is the “suffering of the urban poor and the predation of the informal economy” in an urban capitalistic landscape that “works predominantly for those who are able to extract resources … from the appropriation of its public spaces” (Agbiboa, 2016, p. 941). While the entrepreneurial nature of the informal transit system in Lagos is certainly impressive - so much so that Nigerians are known globally as an incredibly hard-working society of hustlers (e.g., see Kurian, 2017) - those grinding to meet the bottommost rungs on Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs (Maslow, 1943) should not to be eroticized as they have been in films like Slumdog Millionaire. From the perspective of informal transit workers in Lagos, “daily life is a battle that takes place in a precarious space where there 63 is ‘no time to check time’”(Agbiboa, 2016, p. 950). As put simply by a danfo driver in Ikotun, “to chop (eat) you need to hustle because stomach no get holiday [sic]” (Agbiboa, 2016, p. 945). This statement evokes the apocalyptic views of “urban survivalism”, what Davis (2004, p. 24) argues “is the new primary mode of livelihood in a majority of Third World cities”.

This precarity is cyclical. With little footing for upward movement for those entrenched in the informal transit sector, it remains clear that the system as it exists today basically guarantees outcomes of continued exploitation of the poor under the guise of providing an affordable and necessary public service. With this backdrop, a “vicious cycle of poverty” emerges (Aryeetey, 2015; Perry, Lopez, Maloney, Arias, & Serven, 2006) such that the rank-and-file workers making the system function are unable to improve their quality of life. But, since immediate needs like generating enough income to eat and sleep take precedence over longer term planning for these individuals, the wheel keeps turning. Hernando de Soto (1989; 2000) champions the ‘heroic entrepreneurship’ of the informal sector as a creative response to the state’s incapacity to satisfy the basic needs of the impoverished, interpreted by Roy (2011, p. 227) as a “grassroots uprising against state bureaucracy”. De Soto’s optimistic perspective calls for legalization of the informal system, claiming that capitalist prosperity will cure the ills of poverty once these dormant assets are legally recognized. Roy (2005, 2011) pushes back on this due to the dialogue’s absence of recognizing the contributing factors of power and exclusion that would inhibit this supposed prosperity to be had (among other reasons). She argues that informality is simply a mode of urbanization, “not a separate sector, but rather a series of transactions that connect different economies and spaces to one another” (Roy, 2005, p. 148). From this dialogue emerges the concept of “subaltern urbanism”, in which Roy (2011, p. 223) defines the slum (a bastion of the informal economy) as a place of rich self-organization and 64 industrious qualities, flourishing despite the structural disadvantages that it faces. This concept relates directly to the informal transit system, which despite its numerous shortfalls possesses situated knowledges and dynamic qualities that a formalized system could never possibly re-create.

CONCLUSION

While the informal system possesses the benefits of adaptive service provision extending to all corners of the megacity, as it stands currently, the informal transit system does not work particularly well for anyone involved (save for the NURTW leadership). From those working among the rank-and-file of the informal transit system, they are trapped in a precarious loop with little to no chance of upward movement despite the dangerous but necessary public service that they provide. For those who ride the system for transport, they suffer from the disbenefits of irregularity, lack of safety, and inconvenience among others. The free-for-all, laissez-faire method of providing public transit service has resulted in a chaotic system governed by institutional corruption whereby numerous actors vehemently compete to provide a service that is inherently limited due to a stark lack of resources and provision of public infrastructure. As will be presented in the next chapter, the government seizes on these rationalities to bolster support for infrastructure renewal and system formalization, which may ultimately spell the eradication of the informal system altogether.

65 Chapter 5: Planning & Design Principles of Formal Public Transit in Lagos, Nigeria

INTRODUCTION

In part due to the stark lack of formal public transport provided by the government, independent private operators have competed with public transport providers with little to no government intervention since the 1920’s into the present day (Efunshade, 2017). The horizontal alignment of a myriad of entities competing to provide the most financially productive service is not confined to the informal private sector. A 2006 World Bank report found that over 100 agencies, ministries, and government departments spanning the local, state, and federal levels had a role in transport provision or regulation in Lagos, “often developing and implementing policies and programs in isolation and without much regard to their effects on the policies or activities of other agencies operating in the city” (Ajay Kumar qtd. in Mobereola, 2006, p. iii). In Nigeria, the government approaches public transport as an opportunity for revenue generation rather than a public service, which is inherently problematic considering that only five unique (and rail-based) transit agencies in the world have been able to generate a farebox recovery ratio high enough to not require an operations subsidy49.

Formalizing the entire transit system in Lagos is a goal of the current , Akinwunmi Ambode. After all, most of the ‘best practices’ championed by Western- and Sino-centric ideals and buttressed by corresponding research point to this as a fast track to development and modernization. Still, even in the context of objectively

49 Hong Kong MTR, Tokyo Metro, Taipei Metro, Singapore SMRT Corporation, and the London Underground all achieved farebox recovery ratios of 100% or higher in 2015 or 2016 (Rodrigue, 2017). These unique cases are true outliers and are not contextually applicable to the context of Lagos due to the stark differences in infrastructure provision, land management practices, governance, and ability of consumers to pay higher fares, among other factors. Essentially, all other formal public transit agencies in the world operate at a loss and must be subsidized in order to sustain operations. 66 successful formal transit lines, informal transit services still serve a vital function as a feeder system, providing first-mile or last-mile access to bus stations. And in the case where formal lines reach capacity, these services fill excess need, providing parallel and competing service. In the case of a burgeoning Lagos, it remains highly unlikely that the government will be able to supply the level of transit service required for the 23 million people that currently live in the area. A combination of increased regulation of informal services paired with increased investments in formal transit modes seems more likely. After a brief history of public transit in Lagos, this chapter first outlines the institutional structures and numerous actors that govern the planning, operations, and regulation of the formal transit system. These relationships and ideas are then grounded in the broader Lagos State Development Plan (LSDP), a foundation of both the STMP and the Bus Reform Project. The chapter wraps up with an evaluation of existing plans while grounding them in both reality and Western and Sino-centric market-based rationalities.

BACKGROUND AND HISTORY OF FORMAL PUBLIC TRANSIT SYSTEMS

Public transportation services in Lagos date back to the colonial era. Numerous attempts to provide sustainable and profitable transit services have come and gone: a steam tramway on Lagos Island (1906-1933), bus services provided by a Greek company in the 1950’s, the 22-bus Lagos Municipal Transport Service operation in the 1960s, among others (Efunshade, 2017). With the official formation of Lagos State in 1967, the state government established a formal transit provider called the Lagos State Transport Corporation (LSTC), which began operations in the early 1970s. This agency was scrapped in 1994 due to insolvency because of the inability to purchase spare parts for their diverse, aging bus fleet. Their fleet of over 500 buses had reduced to an operational fleet of four by the final day of operation (Olanrewaju et al., 1995). In 2003, the local government

67 attempted to roll out bus service on Ikoyi and Victoria Island through a PPP with two local bus operation companies; however, it failed within a few days of launch due to lack of capacity from the bus companies (Efunshade, 2017). This effort prompted the government to establish their own asset management entity, Lagbus Asset Management Ltd., to procure buses and subsequently lease them out to private operators. The Lagbus service has deteriorated substantially since its introduction, due to a variety of factors, namely the same lack of maintenance that led to the scrapping of the LSTC in 1994. With structural support from the World Bank, the Lagos Metropolitan Area

Transport Authority (LAMATA) was established in 2002 and empowered with the responsibility of implementing transportation improvements to address transportation demand throughout the greater Lagos metropolitan region. Though inter-agency transportation policy and governance in Lagos is incredibly complex and overlapping (as is illustrated in the section below), LAMATA remains the beacon of neoliberal mass transit reform and the only entity of its kind in Nigeria. The following section will describe these relationships between the myriad individual actors that still hold varying stakes in the planning and governance of passenger transport in Lagos today.

EXISTING INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE GOVERNING FORMAL TRANSIT IN LAGOS

Though the number of institutional actors working to plan, provide, and regulate transportation in Lagos may have dropped below the 100 organizations mark (see Figure 23 below), this sector is still largely fragmented and siloed with little to no coordination. The organizational chart of responsibilities may appear simple and clean-cut, but interview respondents expressed discontent with the overlap of agency duties and the resultant duplicative (and often conflicting) planning efforts. The formation of LAMATA, the only metropolitan planning organization in Nigeria, has served to coordinate these efforts while

68 distilling a synthesized vision for transport in Lagos state (Mobereola, 2006); however, due to funding shortfalls50 and a general resistance to the organizational changes, carrying out even the “Do Minimum” scenario of their Strategic Transport Master Plan (STMP) is already many years behind schedule (ALG Transportation Logistics, 2014, p. 61)51. The following sections outline key actors displayed Figure 23 in order of the top to the bottom of this formal hierarchy.

Figure 23: Organizational chart of responsibilities in formal transit in Lagos

50 Delays in construction of the Blue Line light rail project and other transit projects have been delayed in part due to funding shortfalls that have resulted from a bad recession followed by devaluation of the Nigerian currency and project cost escalation. As such LAMATA has defaulted on their loans and the Chinese firms hired to do the work have slowed their pace substantially. – Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 51 According to the LAMATA STMP, a new BRT route, two light rail corridors, a cable car system, two ring roads, and numerous inland ferry corridors were supposed to be implemented by 2017. During my visit in 7/2018, most of these projects had not even been initiated and those that were under construction were moving very slowly with minimal workers. 69 Nigerian Federal Ministry of Transport

Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Transport is both physically and practically removed from the planning and provision of urban transportation. The federal capital of Nigeria was located in Lagos until 1979 when the nation decided to take a page from Brazil’s development book and build the greenfield capital city of Abuja. According to a national commission report from 1975, space constraints within Lagos52 and the city’s association with the Yoruba tribal ethnicity made it an inappropriate location for the diverse nation’s capital city (Gorham, 2017). No agency within the Nigerian federal government addresses intra-regional urban transport in any city outside of Abuja. While the Federal Ministry of Transport (FMOT) developed a Nigerian Transport Masterplan in 2006, it mainly focuses on national infrastructure projects (e.g. interstate roadways, railways, seaports, aviation, and pipelines), over “social safety net” investments like bus-based public transport53 (Gorham, 2017). Most of these projects are developed and planned with little to no coordination or input from local or state planning agencies (Gorham, 2017). For example, the National Rail project, which includes a commuter railway link under development that will connect Lagos with Abeokuta and , is currently under construction; however, no mention of this line is included in the LAMATA Strategic Transport Master Plan (ALG Transportation Logistics, 2014; Nigeria Federal Ministry of Transportation, 2019a, 2019b). As far as providing regular funding for local, intra-urban transportation projects, the federal government has remained largely absent. FMOT and the federal government

52 During an informal conversation with a longshoreman, who also works as an Uber driver in Lagos, he had the following to say about the capital’s relocation: “They made Abuja the capital because of congestion. If all of that government was still here, there would be no place to sleep!” – Martins, Uber Driver. Informal conversation with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 53 The Nigerian Federal Urban Mass Transit Agency provided a funding mechanism to purchase buses for transit services in the 1990s, but this agency went defunct in 2002. 70 more generally maintain a steadfast desire to deliver new infrastructure over the maintenance or creative use of existing roadways and rail lines54, likely due to the bombastic political imagery associated with modern, new projects. On the other hand, the current Muhammadu Buhari administration has shown symbolic support for fellow All Progressives Congress (APC) party comrade, Lagos State governor Akinwunmi Ambode and his visions to modernize the Lagos transportation system. President Buhari has visited Lagos on multiple occasions to commission different stages of the Bus Reform Initiative (“Photos,” 2018).

Lagos State Government - Ministry of Transport (MOT)

The Lagos State MOT formulates all relevant laws affecting transportation in Lagos state and is responsible for the “provision of road infrastructure and furniture appropriate for transportation and traffic management control” (Lagos State Government, 2018). From the government’s perspective, they claim that a major reason that they cannot feasibly provide enough infrastructure and social services for citizens is because they cannot collect taxes on a vast proportion of the economic activity in Lagos. The predominance of the informal sector, particularly related to transport, indicates that millions of dollars change hands every day in Lagos, but little to none of that can feasibly be harnessed for taxation purposes. In fact, billboards along many expressways beckon passers-by to pay their taxes to make a greater Lagos, as if paying taxes to the government were an optional activity (see Figure 24 below). With the “bad governance” and “endemic corruption” prevalent in every level of Nigerian government, it is understandable that citizens are not jumping at the idea

54 The African Development Bank estimates that national spending on normal periodic roadway maintenance in Nigeria in 2013 amounted to about 10% of recommended levels even if the roads were in good condition (African Development Bank Group, 2013). 71 of entrusting government officials with more expansive powers and budgets ( qtd. in Amanpour, 2018).

Figure 24: Roadside billboards displaying ongoing public works projects being undertaken by the Lagos State Government.

Still, numerous projects are underway to improve the transportation system with infrastructure projects. As a part of the Bus Reform Project, LAMATA and the MOT have partnered to construct bus transfer facilities across the state to accommodate the expansion of formal bus services. Still, at the same time, the MOT has also built out formal bus shelters along many major arterial roadways where formal buses do not currently operate. Though it is unclear if the MOT engaged the informal sector to site or prioritize these projects, these areas have been organically overtaken by informal operators and are very much in use by the general public (see Figure 25 below).

Figure 25: Bus stop pull-offs/shelters built by the Lagos State MOT currently being utilized for informal transit operations. 72 In addition to planning and building transport infrastructure, the Lagos State MOT coordinates transportation planning across the state through the oversight of its myriad agencies, including LAMATA, LASTMA (traffic management), MVAA (airport management), LAGFERRY (riverine ferry management) and LASWA (water transport management), among others. With regard to public transportation, MOT sets and controls all policies related to passenger transport and supervises all transportation unions, namely the NURTW (Lagos State Government, 2018). Officially speaking, MOT also regulates the informal transit sector. Danfo buses are licensed and inspected by the MOT and the routes that they operate along are approved by MOT as well. Danfo drivers and conductors receive permits with a badge and ID number upon successfully passing annual safety examinations55.

Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (LAMATA)

LAMATA is an autonomous authority that oversees, plans, coordinates, and regulates formal public transit services in the greater Lagos metropolitan region. LAMATA holds the exclusive right to formally permit transit operations in the metropolitan region. The agency represents a unique metropolitan transportation planning entity that does not exist in any other state of Nigeria. Funding for LAMATA is sourced from regular state and national government budgetary allocations, including a dedicated operation fund from vehicle licensing, multilateral funding sources (e.g. French Development Agency and

World Bank), and private sector investment (public-private partnerships)56.

55 Dr. Rafiu Bankole, Lagos State Ministry of Transport, Head of Planning Unit. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 26, 2018. 56 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA – Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 73 Sensing that something must be done to address the burgeoning transport needs in the rapidly expanding megacity, the Lagos State Government empowered LAMATA to carry out the Lagos Urban Transport Project, a vision for a sustainable and integrated transport system that would ultimately alleviate chronic traffic congestion and poverty (Efunshade, 2017). This effort has led to the creation of the Lagos Strategic Transport

Master Plan (STMP) and the supporting Bus Reform Project initiative. With funding support from the World Bank, the agency implemented Africa’s first BRT scheme in 2008. The selected 22-kilometer route includes lanes that are restricted to formal transit buses,

65% of which are physically segregated and 20% separated by painted road markings (Nikitas & Karlsson, 2015). Daily ridership on the route exceeds 220,000 passengers and past research suggests that the project has been successful in increasing mobility (Lagos

State Government Bureau of Statistics, 2017; Olufemi, 2008), improving perceptions of safety and comfort (Okagbue et al., 2015), drastically reducing in particulate matter emissions57, and improving quality of life of both passengers and other corridor users (Adebambo & Adebayo, 2009). Since it is the only line in Lagos to date, these benefits are largely confined to the corridor in which it operates as network effects have not yet been realized through the build out of other connecting services. As such, users face challenges accessing the BRT system (Olawole, 2012) and report dissatisfaction with the long wait times faced once they arrive to the stations (Olufemi, 2008). LAMATA is looking to address these issues with the implementation of ITS monitoring systems and electronic ticketing as they build out additional transit corridors throughout Lagos58 (see Figure 26 below).

57 Nearly all categories of total vehicle emissions on the BRT corridor decreased substantially after the introduction of BRT in Lagos. CO2 decreased by 13%, PM decreased by 48%, NOx and VOC decreased by 1% and CO increased marginally by 3% (Orekoya, 2010). 58 Dr. Desmond Amiegbebhor, LAMATA, Director of Bus Service Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 18, 2018. 74

Figure 26: LAMATA TBS BRT Station (left) configuration of bus-only right-of-way at Ojota Station (middle) and construction of Blue Line at National Theater Station (right) (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018)

With regard to rail development, LAMATA contracted with the China Civil Engineering Construction Company (CCECC) to construct Lagos’s first electric light rail line, the Blue Line, from Okokomaiko to Marina in a public-private partnership (see Figure

26). The project, which was scheduled to be completed by 2014, is still under construction, facing delays due to unforeseen land acquisition costs and funding issues59. The Blue Line is designed to carry 400,000-700,000 passengers daily (Gabriel, 2014); however, it remains to be seen if the electrical power grid will be able to sustain these ridership levels. Africa’s first electric light-rail project was constructed in 2015 by a Chinese firm in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, but struggles to meet passenger demand because the number of trams cannot be increased due to power capacity constraints (Tarrosy & Vörös, 2018).

According to LAMATA’s Director of Rail Systems, the system will feature 8-12 coach trains with 3-minute headways at peak hours, running at speeds of up to 120 km/hour60. A separate power station located at Mile 2 junction is in the process of being constructed to ensure consistent electricity for the system, which will be operated by a

59 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 60 [Name Unknown], LAMATA, Director of Rail Systems, Interview with L. Alcorn, July 19, 2018. 75 concessionaire through a PPP agreement61. After completion, a trip that would ordinarily take 2-3 hours from Okokomaiko to Marina by automobile62, is projected to take about 20 minutes via the Blue Line63 (see Figure 27 below).

Figure 27: Existing conditions (left*) vs. future layout (right**) of Lagos-Badagry expressway axis. (Photo sources: *L. Alcorn, 2018; **(Daniel, 2013)).

LAGBUS Asset Management Company

At one point in time, with over 535 high capacity buses in its fleet and 21 routes, Lagbus served as the largest intrastate bus operator in all of West Africa (Efunshade, 2017). Upon its formation, Lagbus had never intended to actually operate buses. As a state-owned asset management company, the entity was formed in 2007 to procure and lease buses to private operators as a scheme to generate revenue for the State while providing a public service (Efunshade, 2017). These buses would operate government-regulated transit

61 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 62 I personally made this trip in the comfort of a private Uber vehicle along the Lagos-Badagry Expressway to access Lagos State University for interviews. The trip took between 2 and 3 hours traveling opposite peak-flow due to construction that brought the multi-lane expressway down a two-lane dirt road flooded with mud and pothole craters of unknown depth, which forced several danfo vehicles to go out of commission. 63 [Name Unknown], LAMATA, Director of Rail Systems, Interview with L. Alcorn, July 19, 2018. 76 services along pre-planned routes64. Unfortunately, due to a lack of engagement with local transport stakeholders, private operators could not afford the buses (Brader, 2009).

Consequently, the agency owned 540 buses that they could not lease to anyone65 (see Figure 28 below). As such, the asset management company with no transit planning staff or operational expertise, was essentially forced to operate the buses themselves.

Figure 28: The once high-quality, air-conditioned, symbols of “modernized” public transport ply the streets of Lagos in tatters with missing parts and unreliable drive-trains. Lagbus stopped at TBS Terminal (left) and operating on the streets of Lagos (right) (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018)

Lagbus chose to franchise their bus operations, offering licenses for 500,000 Naira

(approximately $1,400 USD), sold to anyone with the money to buy one66. Similar to the system established by the NURTW in their oversight of the informal transit sector, buyers of the Lagbus franchise agreements either resell or charge fees for the rights to operate along a certain route. With over 50 franchises and sub-entities67 involved in operating

64 Mr. Seyi Osiyemi, LAGBUS Asset Management Ltd. – Head of Bus Operations. Interview with L. Alcorn – July 20, 2018. 65 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA – Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 66 [Confidential Informant], Yutong Bus Ltd. Representative, Interview with L. Alcorn, July 21, 2018 67 [Confidential Informant], Yutong Bus Ltd. Representative, Interview with L. Alcorn, July 21, 2018 77 Lagbus services, the over-franchising of Lagbus assets made it difficult to uphold a standard quality of service and consistency of operations across the city. Furthermore, buses have not been properly maintained and Lagbus operations are winding down as more and more buses become non-functional. This common trend in Nigeria is a function of the political landscape in which politicians muster up funding for capital projects, but do not plan or allocate sufficient funding for ongoing operations and maintenance. Regulated passenger fares of 150 Naira (approximately $0.40 USD) per ride do not come close to covering these costs and consequently the capital assets (buses) simply continue to operate in decay until they cannot operate any longer68. Lagbus will eventually cease to exist once their operational fleet size approaches zero69 at which point their staff will be realigned to their original purpose: asset management, bus procurement, and quality inspections of vehicles70.

Bus Rapid Transit Operating Company – Public-Private Partnership

The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) explicitly states that the PPP is a core principle of developing an effective BRT business model (Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, 2007). In Lagos, a PPP agreement designates a concessionaire company to handle the day to day operations of the BRT route from CMS (central business district on Lagos Island) to Ikorodu (northern terminus). Generally, this model represents how other future BRT and rail routes will be operated throughout Lagos. To integrate the existing informal sector into the new BRT scheme, NURTW officials were

68 Mr. Seyi Osiyemi, LAGBUS Asset Management Ltd. – Head of Bus Operations. Interview with L. Alcorn – July 20, 2018. 69 Oversight and office staff for LAGBUS had already been reduced to three employees during my visit in July of 2018. 70 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA – Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 78 engaged regularly in the planning process71 and ultimately formed a cooperative to serve as the operations concessionaire company upon the BRT’s initial opening in 2008. The NURTW co-op employed former danfo drivers and owners in the new system, but ultimately due to lapses in contractual obligations, the contract was eventually taken over by the private firm that operates the line currently, Primero.

The Lagos BRT line developed as a “closed system” such that only specialized agency-owned buses can use the dedicated bus corridors. This creates a “two-tiered network” in which the public benefits of more reliable and expedient service is conferred only to those patronizing the BRT service (Paget-Seekins, 2015). Originally, Lagbus routes were allowed to operate within the BRT lanes, but Primero complained that this cut into their ability to meet their contractual obligations. Since LAMATA sets the fares, the perceived loss of ridership to the Lagbus system was coming out of Primero’s pocket as they argued72. Consequently, Lagbus and danfo services now slug through the poorly maintained and over-congested general-purpose lanes with the rest of traffic, providing a parallel, competing, lower-tier of service to the BRT along the same corridor. According to LAMATA officials, currently Primero is the only competitor in this space and, as such, management issues exist that have resulted in a poorer level of service than envisioned73. Usually, people do not complain that the speed of bus service is too fast for their comfort, but apparently, passengers reported that drivers had been driving at reckless speeds along the route. In response, LAMATA has added speed bumps to the route

71 Before the BRT was implemented, key NURTW officials came along with LAMATA and LSG officials to visit Bogotá and Curitiba to examine how these systems integrated informal transit services into the formal BRT system. - Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 72 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 73 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 79 at several tactical locations (e.g. auto-crossovers, pedestrian crossings, etc.) to ensure that

BRT drivers do not speed74. At the same time, their operation control center also monitors on-time performance to report and improve schedule adherence (see Figure 29 below). Primero has strict incentives in place for safe driving. Drivers make 80,000 Naira per month (approximately $220 USD) if they drive with a perfect record, but if they damage the bus at all they forfeit half of that monthly salary, are suspended for three days with no pay, and must pay for the damages to the bus out of their own pocket75.

Figure 29: (Left*) Primero’s Operation Control Center is used to monitor and manage ongoing bus operations. (Middle*) LAMATA/Primero Bus Yard at Mile 12. (Right**) Bus Pilot and Officer Training (Photo Sources: *L. Alcorn, 7/2018 and **(Orekoya, 2010))

Procurement & Transit Vehicle Supply – Foreign Contractors

A substantial part of the STMP and Bus Reform Project involves phasing out

70,000 yellow danfo buses and replacing them with formal, clean, and regulated buses that

74 According to multiple sources, it is so rare to see such a long stretch of open, uncongested roadway in Lagos that BRT bus drivers cannot possibly help themselves to not speed. - Mr. Olusegun Oguntunde, Former Primero BRT Bus Driver. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 19, 2018. 75This system paired with the stressful daily work schedule (either 6am-2pm or 2pm-11pm) and concerns about the mechanical operations of the buses that resulted in worn out brakes that didn’t work until 5 seconds after pressing them, prompted Segun to quit his job as a bus operator to become a full-time driver for Uber. - Mr. Olusegun Oguntunde, Former Primero BRT Bus Driver. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 19, 2018. 80 signal comfort, progress, and modernity76.Yutong Bus Company is the largest Chinese exporter of buses to Africa, having delivered over 15,000 buses to the continent since 2004 (Shepherd, 2016; Yutong Bus, 2018). This company supplied LAMATA with rolling stock for the development of the World Bank-funded BRT Lite project and has maintained a close relationship with LAMATA since that time. The rubber-tired transit sector is heavily dependent on infrastructure investment and consistent maintenance to be successful, but all too often funding streams dry up soon after the ribbon-cutting ceremonies. These ebbs and flows of transportation funding and project prioritization change based on whims of the politicians in power (and those with enough money to influence them). Planning and implementation of infrastructure projects in Nigeria is a contentious political process inevitably shrouded and driven by corruption and backroom deals. A foreign contractor noted that in order to pen procurement deals with LAMATA, under-the-table dealings were an inevitable and regular process of business in Nigeria77 (see United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime & Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics, 2017).

BUILDING BLOCKS OF A MODERN STATE: THE LAGOS STATE DEVELOPMENT PLAN

The STMP is a building block of the overall Lagos State Development Plan (LSDP) which envisions Lagos as “Africa’s Model Megacity and global, economic and financial hub that is safe, secure, functional, and productive” (Lagos State Government Ministry of

Economic Planning and Budget, 2013, p. 1)78. In order to achieve this vision, the LSDP

76 Dr. Charles Asenime, Lagos State University, Professor in the School of Transport. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 23, 2018. 77 The Yutong representative indicated that he feels shame for what he does in order to conduct business in Nigeria and that he feels sorry for the people of Nigeria for all of the resources that have been stolen from them by corrupt political and business leaders. - [Confidential Informant], Yutong Bus Ltd. Representative, Interview with L. Alcorn, July 21, 2018 78 The foundation of these plans draws inspiration from the multiple nuclei city theory. Combining the theoretical planning concepts of bid-rent theory and Fontenell’s Agricultural Model, multiple nuclei city 81 lays out a framework to unite the private sector, the public sector, and the general public to eradicate poverty and pursue sustainable economic growth through infrastructural renewal and development. The LSDP cites infrastructure and policy needs to address power, water, telecommunications, health, education, social services, waste management, built environment and climate change remediation – all in addition to (and in parallel with) transport. The STMP largely ignores these parallel systems of lacking infrastructure needs, though it does plan future services around development zones envisioned in the LSDP. For example, the STMP advocates for the creation of a free-trade zone in and intensified development in a number of areas outside of the Lagos central core (ALG Transportation Logistics, 2014). On the eastern side of the existing CBD, this involves transit-oriented development extending approximately 70 km from the Eko Atlantic Smart City along the

Lekki expressway where BRT and LRT service is proposed to connect the free-trade zone and new airport to central Lagos. The western axis proposes much of the same, connecting the future Badagry port with BRT and LRT services (see Figure 30 & Figure 31 below).

Figure 30: Population densities and future migration patterns within the STMP study area (Image Source: ALG Transportation Logistics, 2014)

theory advocates for the development of a polycentric metropolis connected by sustainable, efficient, and reliable transportation links (Harris & Ullman, 1945; Hartman, 1950). 82

Figure 31: Priority transport corridors from STMP (Image Source: ALG Transportation Logistics, 2014)

Currently, Lagos Island functions as the CBD of Lagos. Obvious geographic constraints of having a CBD located on an island paired with no current mass transit options (aside from one BRT line) have resulted in intense bottlenecks to access the island or to simply traverse through it to reach the mainland or Lekki. Land prices on Lagos Island,

Ikoyi and Victoria Island fetch the second highest price per square foot of any place in

83 Africa (behind that of Luanda, Angola) (Knight Frank, 2015). Generally, in accordance with the bid-rent theory, land rent declines as one travels further from the CBD while transport costs increase (J. McDonald, 1997; J. F. McDonald & McMillen, 2011). However, the LSDP wants to leverage existing potential urban centers outside of the CBD, by encouraging development and constructing/upgrading infrastructure in these areas (e.g. along the Lekki-Badagry east-west axis) to spread focal points of the megacity across a wider geographic area. Thus, the expansion of LRT and BRT as long-distance trunk-modes supplemented by local transit hubs across the megacity will serve a pivotal function in connecting these multiple centers across Lagos state.

DISCUSSION AND EVALUATION: THE VISION FOR A MODERN LAGOS

While the Bus Reform Project and the broader STMP claim to have bridged all of the gaps to make the informal system irrelevant, a “clash of rationalities” persists between the market-based logics of the Sino-Western perspectives of modernity and the more organically defined assemblages that make up the complex informal system (Watson, 2009a). This discourse will be further unpacked and analyzed in Chapter 6. The following sections set the stage for this analysis by first evaluating the potential for inclusion of informal actors in the future system. Then, I examine the modernist vision of Lagos from the perspectives of the institutional actors that make up the formal transport system along with both Sino- and Western-based sources of these ideals in Nigeria.

Evaluation of Plans for Formality

Of any government entity, the Lagos State MOT certainly possesses the position with the most direct interface with the informal sector. They inspect and license the vehicles, drivers, and routes and one of their agencies (LASTMA) helps to enforce these

84 rules. Since the state MOT also oversees LAMATA – the agency representing the modern, formal public transport operation – it might seem that the MOT would be the best convening agency to connect and integrate the formal and informal transit sectors, but these connections do not exist and likely never will. These arrangements and relationships are all much more complicated than the official organizational charts and assigned ministerial responsibilities depicted in Figure 23 (Lagos State Government, 2018). For example, the NURTW does a considerable amount of supervision and permitting of the informal system as well, but the lines remain blurred between where one organization’s jurisdiction begins and another one ends. What is clear is that in a likelihood, at some point in time, money changed hands to determine where the line is drawn today79. LAMATA officials claim to recognize the importance of incorporating the voices and needs of the informal sector into the stakeholder process. As a part of the planning process for the STMP and the Bus Reform Project, LAMATA conducted household surveys and roadside interviews (origin-destination surveys), collected volumetric counts on existing formal services, held public town hall meetings (composed mostly of elites)80, and constructed a transportation demand model to replicate how people would move around 10 to 20 years into the future. However, other officials explain that the NURTW and danfo drivers have not been engaged in the planning process for feedback and that public town hall meetings simply function to provide information to stakeholders, not

79 The NURTW pays some sort of money (or tax) to local government (MOT). The amount is unknown to outside sources, but ultimately it disappears as there is a lot of “leakage” in the system. - Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 80 LAMATA reportedly invited key people who must attend public town hall meetings in order for them to be representative and successful. These individuals include key NURTW officials, business leaders, politicians, and head market women. Other members of the general public are encouraged to come (the meetings are open to the public) but are not specifically invited. - Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 85 necessarily to listen for feedback81. It is perhaps telling that the name of the department that conducts stakeholder engagement is called the “Corporate Communications Unit”82 rather than something denoting a community involvement functionality. At the very least, LAMATA understands the political powers and connections of the NURTW, an organization that likely will not react positively to a blind capture of their main source of operational income and socio-political capital. While officials at LAMATA contend that they know that the informal sector, and the NURTW in particular, desires an equity stake in the future system83, it remains unclear how this will be achieved84.

Furthermore, the reforms proposed in this formalization scheme cannot feasibly offer 1:1 replacement of all the jobs to be lost in the dismemberment of the informal transit sector. Overall job loss as a result of neoliberal systematic reforms of public services in the

Global South is well documented in literature (e.g. Portes & Roberts, 2005). General lack of social safety nets and programs in sub-Saharan Africa still result in low levels of open unemployment due to an increase in informal employment. Potts (2008, p. 162) points out that open unemployment simply isn’t an option in much of sub-Saharan Africa and that people will generally accept labor “no matter how low the resultant income” to avoid starvation and fulfilment of basic survival needs. Locals are afraid that cutting such a sizeable amount of the informal labor force will result in rampant upticks in crime85 (Ege

81 Dr. Desmond Amiegbebhor, LAMATA, Director of Bus Service Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 18, 2018. 82 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 83 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 84 Mr. Abidun Taiwo, NURTW Secretariat of the Ojodu-Berger Branch, stated that LAMATA-NURTW relations is a one-sided conversation of LAMATA telling NURTW what is going to happen and not asking for feedback. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 20, 2018. 85 All respondents of my semi-structured interviews agreed that some sort of training program or other means would be required to transition informal operators into the formal system in order to avoid upticks in crime due to the prevalence of idle activities of a suddenly unemployed low-skilled labor pool. 86 & Michael, 2013). Furthermore, local experts and the general public alike have raised concerns that while this neoliberal modernization of the bus system is being touted as a solution to the labor precarity in the informal transit sector, many individuals presently employed in the informal sector lack the hard skills (e.g. literacy, fluency in English, stable health conditions, etc.) required to be regularly employed in the formal sector86.

As discussed in Chapter 4, the informal system possesses certain strengths over formal BRT systems, including the “incessantly flexible, mobile, and provisional” nature of service that allow it to better serve certain trips (Simone, 2004, p. 407). In many Western contexts, BRT routes and rail lines are designed to encourage bike and walk access to station locations, but that is not the case along the BRT route in Lagos. Only 24.5% of commuters indicated that they typically access the BRT line on foot, indicating that three- quarters of those sampled used either motorcycles, taxis, or minibus services for this first/last-mile journey (Olawole, 2012). This is probably due to a general lack of pedestrian safety infrastructure (e.g. sidewalks) combined with a cultural manifestation of avoiding being taunted and labeled as legedisbenz87. Additionally, since there is only one BRT line in the sprawling city and residential and employment densities along the corridor have not been altered to allow for transit-oriented development around station areas, people using the BRT line tend to start and end their journeys from further than walking distance. At the very least, the danfo system could provide a nimble system of feeder services to formal BRT lines to ease access to the formal system. Overall, it remains clear that the formal transit plans do not offer a panacea solution and will have adverse consequences if not enacted with care. That is not to say that these interventions should not progress; however, consideration of these impacts should be

86 Mr. Olusegun Oguntunde, Former Primero BRT Bus Driver. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 19, 2018. 87 A local Yoruba term referring to those who are too poor to afford motorized transport (Agbiboa, 2016). 87 closely examined and a through engagement of informal actors and the general public alike should take place to determine potential outcomes of future scenarios with and without informal/formal transit integration.

Formal Actors United Around Modernity

If there is one thing that unites all the myriad actors listed above, it is the steadfast vision for achieving modernity in Lagos. President Buhari’s visits related to the Bus Reform Initiative indicate a shift in the previously held views of the federal government that classified bus-based transport as a “safety net” type project lacking national import. State MOT officials and governor Ambode’s rhetoric portray these projects as necessary interventions to address or “cure” a disjointed system that propagates poverty and underdevelopment (see Figure 32 below). The State’s tool to complete these processes is LAMATA, an organization cultivated with the help of World Bank and composed of upper level staff recruited from the Nigerian diaspora living abroad who are paid much higher wages than typical Nigerian civil service officials in order to retain qualified staff who would otherwise find work in the private sector or abroad (Gorham, 2017). Of course, the foreign contractors and operation companies share these thoughts, because they undergird the profitability of their business.

88

Figure 32: Magazine publication from Lagos Governor Ambode’s administration pledging 1,489 infrastructure projects over the course of his first term in office between May 2015 and May 2018 (Image Source: “How Governor Ambode is Improving the Landscape of Lagos,” 2018).

These ideas, however, are not solely sourced from what is traditionally viewed as Western imperialistic influences. The rhetoric undergirding China’s symbolic and financial expansion into Africa mirrors many of the contentions displayed in what is commonly portrayed as Western-centric, market-driven rationalities (Watson, 2009a). This narrative preaches a complete system overhaul signaling progress toward modern development, while discounting any positive aspects and potential complementarities of informal transit. China’s presence in Nigeria is palpable – just in Lagos, Chinese firms are currently building out numerous infrastructure projects including the Blue Line elevated light rail project, the Lagos-Badagry Expressway/BRT project, and an international terminal at the Muhammad Muralta International Airport. Most any high-quality road lacking massive potholes sports pilons attributing the Chinese construction firm that built the road every kilometer or so (see Figure 33 below). Reportedly, however, Lagos State governor Ambode does not particularly like China or its influence in Nigeria, so Chinese business 89 representatives must covertly pay him off in order to continue their productive engagements in Lagos88.

Figure 33: (Left) Slogan displayed at National Theater Station CCECC construction site. (Middle) LAMATA Yutong BRT bus side panel. (Right) China Civil roadside marker. (Photo Source: L. Alcorn, 7/2018)

The topic of China’s geopolitical presence in Africa is incredibly complex and delving below the surface of this topic would be enough to fill multiple books (see Eisenman & Shinn, 2018; Shinn & Eisenman, 2012); however, it is important to briefly mention the basic policies undergirding China’s expansion in the transportation sector in Lagos. Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the driving force behind China’s economic and business expansion into Africa in the name of strategic investment in development to “release the growth potential of various countries and achieve economic integration and interconnected development” (Xi Jinping qtd. in China Power Team, 2017). Officially, BRI preaches “win-win” development (see Figure 33 above), which involves improving inter-governmental cooperation, strengthening and building infrastructure to enhance trade and connectivity, and bolstering people-to-people connections (China Power Team, 2017; Gachuz & Zaldivar, 2019). The reach of BRI is wide and substantial, involving relationships with nearly every one of Africa’s 54 countries and over $1 trillion in pledged funding for infrastructure projects (Lu, Rohr, Hafner, & Knack, 2018). ‘Private’

88 [Confidential Informant], Yutong Bus Ltd. Representative, Interview with L. Alcorn, July 21, 2018 90 investment, by companies like Yutong Bus Company, are not included in this figure, yet their rapid expansion into the African market has undoubtedly been propagated by these policies89. China’s entrance into the Africa establishes a curious south-south dialogue that introduces a wrinkle into the notion that modernist thinking is heavily tied with Western thinking. In reality, much of China’s rapid development and rise to global prominence has focused on modernist, capitalistic practices. Their rhetoric entering Africa preaches the benefits of modernization while simultaneously offering assistance, training, and financing to get there. Whether these intentions are benign, or neocolonialist remains to be seen, but Chinese influence represents yet another powerful proponent of the market-based rationality.

CONCLUSIONS

Historically, public agencies in Lagos have struggled to provide consistent, efficient, or effective public transit services. The sheer number of agencies involved in transport posed issues of overlapping responsibilities and inconsistent planning efforts. With the establishment of LAMATA and the successful implementation of Lagos’ first formal BRT line, the state has made progress toward the modernization of its transport system. This drive for modernization has forged alliances among the myriad actors who interact to form the governing and operational bodies of the formal transit system. Still, the limited scope of existing formal transit infrastructure means that informal services presently still serve the vast majority of passenger travel demand in Lagos. LAMATA’s

89 Due to the maintenance and parts-sourcing concerns that led to past failings in public transit (LSTC in 1990s and Lagbus in 2010s), a Yutong representative who I interviewed noted that the next big step for Lagos would be to establish a bus factory. Shortly after my visit, Primero announced that it had broken ground on construction of a Yutong bus assembly plant as a part of the expansion of the city’s BRT network (Famuyiwa, 2018). 91 STMP on a macro-scale and the Bus Reform Project on a more local/micro-scale aim to change this norm through the build out of an ambitious network of bus and rail trunk lines supplemented by strategically positioned local transit hubs served by formal local transit buses as well. Buses have been delivered and LAMATA has broken ground and is expeditiously constructing corridor and hub infrastructure across the megacity. Meanwhile, it seems that more nuanced decisions about stakeholder engagement and the future roles of the informal transit sector and its politically powerful oversight union (NURTW) remain largely unresolved. These ideas of engagement and incorporation will be further analyzed in Chapter 6.

92 Chapter 6: Alternative Futures of Transport in Lagos

INTRODUCTION

As far as the formal sector (in both transport and more generally) is concerned, modernization is the only path forward. Leaders in Nigeria are pushing forth a dialogue of development based in modernist planning from the Global North to attempt to build a society and environment that roughly matches or competes with the so-called developed world. This development methodology focuses on ideas of efficiency, order, and utility

(Todes, 2011), all core ideas manifest in the Lagos State Government’s numerous plans seeking to define the future of transport in the megacity. These plans are supported by detailed modeling efforts (ALG Transportation Logistics, 2014), academic research and literature (e.g., Adebambo & Adebayo, 2009; Efunshade, 2017; Mobereola, 2009; Okagbue et al., 2015; Olanrewaju et al., 1995; Olufemi, 2008), the media (see Figure 34 below), and general public sentiment90.

90 With the exception of the NURTW official (someone with a distinct foreseeable loss in power and income with the minimization of the informal transport sector), every person who I conversed with on my trip (n<100) about the Bus Reform Project or the larger Lagos Strategic Transport Master Plan supported the modernization of the system. While some suggested that the government should “do something” to incorporate current workers within the informal transport sector, no one objected to the plan based on sympathizing with the plight of the danfo drivers, conductors, mechanics, etc. This is consistent with other large-scale transportation projects in the Global South that may minimize the impacts on precariously situated groups while aggressively marketing the positive benefits of the projects (e.g. see Strauch, Takano, & Hordijk, 2015). 93

Figure 34: A cartoon by Tayo Fatunla in The Guardian illustrates the general public sentiment about the transportation system in Lagos – an “integral” part of the transport system, but you’re lucky to arrive alive. (Fatunla, 2019).

94 Cirolia (2017) distills four discourses to frame the urban planning challenges of informality that I will adopt as a framework to unpack the problems and proposed solutions for Lagos’ transportation system. These include technology and design discourses, institutional discourses, rights-based discourses, and structural discourses. Though her research applies specifically to informal settlements in South Africa, the dialogue about

“upgrading informal settlements” (Cirolia, 2017, p. 446) is not dissimilar to that of the Bus Reform Project in Lagos. • The technology and design discourse frames the informal sector as “a design

challenge or puzzle” to be solved with some sort of material intervention (p. 446). This discourse promotes the innovation of technical solutions to solve the problems associated with the informal system through design, usually in an effort to boost

efficiency or improve safety and/or sustainability outcomes. • Institutional discourses state that the informal sector exists due to “capacity constraints” (p. 448) within the government system that prohibits the sufficient delivery of these services in a formal manner. This argument would be used to justify the need for additional government staff and resources to the general public and funding agencies (e.g. World Bank, NGO’s, development agencies, etc.) to

better regulate and deliver a formal transportation network.

• Rights-based discourses draw upon the assertion of basic human rights. Access to opportunities through the transportation network in this case would constitute a right that the State has the responsibility to provide to its citizenry based on public participation and feedback. • Structural discourses hold that the informal sector is a “symptom of the crisis of

capitalism” (p. 452). Capitalism and globalization serve as the oppressors of the

poor in this scenario and it is partially up to the state to help alleviate these 95 injustices. The first step in this process involves supporting truly democratic, grassroots activism as a form of feedback above and beyond the typical state-led processes. This chapter lays out a discussion of the aforementioned city and transport plans for Lagos State while situating them within the critical, post-colonialist theoretical research framework that I’ve adopted for this study. This analysis has been broken down into two key bodies of analysis, which serve as the foundation of answering the research questions with the same topical focus in Chapter 7 – politics and governance, and infrastructure design and technology. Both streams are unified under the broader concept of meaningful public involvement, which is introduced as a separate section to provide a framework and background to apply to the two streams. Each section listed below follows the same format of introducing the issue, situating it within the post-colonial theoretical framework outlined in Chapter 1, and finally transitioning to a positive outlook grounded in potential strategies to overcome these complex issues.

PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT

Arnstein’s (1969) Ladder of Citizen Participation measures levels of public engagement and ranges from “manipulation” at the very bottom of the spectrum all the way up to “citizen control” at the top (see Figure 35). This model has remained a widely applicable framework to analyze public involvement across diverse societies for decades, including applications in numerous developing democratic societies in the Global South (e.g., Ihugba, 2012; Swapan, 2016; Van Speier, 2009). This framework helps to define the degrees of citizen power, tokenism, and nonparticipation present in the participatory planning process for the future of Lagos’ transit systems. LAMATA officials state that the goal of planning and public involvement is to minimize negative externalities of social and

96 environmental issues through the build-out of a modern, safe, understandable, and efficient system that will benefit everyone. Participatory data used for transit planning is sourced from town hall meetings, household surveys, and roadside interviews91.

Figure 35: Arnstein’s Ladder of Citizen Participation (Figure source: Arnstein, 1969, p. 217)

LAMATA’s Deputy Director of Corporate and Investment Planning praised the DART BRT project in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania due in large part to the 10 years of planning, design, and continuous community feedback process92. He admitted that the process of planning for the BRT project in Lagos may have inadvertently cut some corners with respect to public involvement. In concurrence with Cirolia’s (2017) institutional

91 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde. LAMATA Director of Corporate and Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 18, 2018. 92 Mr. Uthman Obafemi Shitta-Bey. LAMATA Deputy Director of Corporate and Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 18, 2018. 97 dialogue, LAMATA did not have the capacity to conduct such a robust analysis of existing conditions and community needs – the agency itself was created just five years before construction on the project started. Although they are open to the public, town hall meetings held by LAMATA and the Lagos State Government to inform transportation planning and policy direction predominantly function to engage key elite stakeholders in the community, including NURTW officials, business leaders, politicians, and head market women. These meetings occur in official, formal, and secure spaces. For example the public open house to receive comments on the Lagos State Transport Policy that will ultimately guide the governance and implementation of many of LAMATA’s transportation plans is set to occur during a single feedback session in an auditorium within the highly-secured walls of the Lagos State

Government complex in Ikeja (see Figure 36 below). Though these meetings rise above the levels of ‘nonparticipation’ depicted in Arnstein’s ladder (Figure 35), they fall well short of the generally desired ‘partnership’ rung (Bailey & Grossardt, 2006). Sources on both the giving and receiving end of these town hall meetings state that the primary function of them is to provide information, not necessarily to listen for feedback93. The resulting “one sided conversation” thus would not rise above the ‘informing’ rung of Arnstein’s ladder and thus exists merely as a form of tokenism, check-box community engagement. To make matters worse, this conversation is also only being held among elite actors. The newspaper advertisement for this meeting (also in Figure 36 below) explicitly states: “corporate organizations, unions, professional bodies, the academia, and other interested and relevant bodies” (Salaam, 2019) are invited to this event, but no mention of the general

93 Dr. Desmond Amiegbebhor, LAMATA, Director of Bus Service Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 18, 2018 and Mr. Abidun Taiwo, NURTW Secretariat of the Ojodu-Berger Branch Office. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 20, 2018. 98 public is included in this announcement. Surely, the public as a whole should constitute an ‘interested and relevant body’, but this opaque statement paired with the foreboding official presence when giving feedback within the secured, walled confines of the State government complex is likely to result in minimal substantial public participation. This connotes the sense that public feedback occurs here, but more as a courtesy than a right, and one that “is contingent on their learning appropriate modes of participation” (Sletto & Nygren, 2015, p. 971). From the perspective of a non-unionized general public participant, this feedback process does not rise above the ‘nonparticipation’ levels on Arnstein’s ladder.

As Arnstein states, “the real objective [of these engagement efforts] is not to enable people to participate in planning or conducting programs, but to enable powerholders to “educate” or “cure” the participants” (Arnstein, 1969, p. 217). This falls into the top-down narrative that is omnipresent in the application of modernist planning principles in much of sub- Saharan Africa today, propagated by Western institutions like the World Bank as well as China’s global Belt and Road Initiative.

99

Figure 36: (Left) Newspaper advertisement announcing public stakeholder meeting for Lagos State Ministry of Transportation (Salaam, 2019), (Right) The entrance to Adeyemi Bero Auditorium within the secure Lagos State Government campus complex involves clearing a stage of armed security officers (Image Source: Google Maps, 2016).

The management style of the NURTW in Lagos is not entirely dissimilar – primarily developing through institutional corruption and scare tactics rather than public engagement. Though the institution represents a union by name, the interests of the NURTW as an organization represent the desires of leadership, not the collective voice of the transport workers themselves. As far as measuring the NURTW’s engagement level on

Arnstein’s ladder, it would certainly fall at or below the lowest rung of ‘manipulation’. The resulting inefficient and individualistic grind of this system produces the plethora of 100 negative externalities that modernist pundits hail as a need for emergency, top-down intervention. Thus, neither system, the informal nor the formal, have established the means to meaningfully engage the community or even simply a broad range of stakeholders that remotely resemble the community as a whole. While all the downsides of a dysfunctional transit system impact all passengers, they have a disproportionate impact on female travelers in Lagos. Within the highly patriarchal Nigerian society, women are not part of the policy and management process of transport. Women tend to rely on public transit more than men in Lagos because if a family owns a car it is traditionally prioritized for the man of the family to use. Furthermore, while a man may only have a need to commute to one location for work, women are “multi- taskers” and must take care of all ancillary family businesses on a day to day basis (e.g. school, church, market, etc.) meaning that they have a wider diversity of places that they need to travel to each day on a transit network that is unsympathetic to their feedback and needs94. Public agencies in Lagos could start to bridge these identified gaps in public involvement through the roadside interviews that they administer in their planning process. To date, these tactics have only been employed for quantitative data acquisition of origin- destination information to funnel into the agency’s transportation demand model95; however, they could be leveraged to elevate their public engagement processes and begin to ascend Arnstein’s ladder. Based simply on the fact that this engagement occurs on the street, rather than a sanitized, secure environment already makes them more inclusive of general public sentiment.

94 Dr. Ogochukwu Ugboma, Lagos State University – School of Transport. Interview by L. Alcorn, July 23, 2018 95 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde. LAMATA Director of Corporate and Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 18, 2018. 101 Strauch et al. (2015) and Miraftab (2009) differentiate “invited” and “invented” spaces in the context of their analysis of insurgent planning concepts. Whereas invited spaces would include formal, officially-accepted places of public feedback and discourse (e.g. the state government auditorium featured in Figure 36) invented spaces are “defined as those collective actions by the poor that directly confront the authorities and challenge the status quo” (Miraftab, 2009, p. 39). Throughout the Global South, responsibilities of engagement have shifted toward informal agents and marginalized society through neoliberalization schemes of engagement (Sletto & Nygren, 2015). However, the poor should not be required to unify under the banner of counter-hegemonic, insurgent (radical) planning to simply be heard. Despite the grumblings state agencies might cite from Cirolia’s (2017) institutional discourse, the State is equally if not better suited to “bring its bureaucratic system to the street”96 (Miraftab, 2009, p. 39) to engage the public in its planning processes. This is where Cirolia’s (2017) rights-based discourse comes into play. This discourse is based on the philosophy that all people have an urban citizenship and a right-to-the-city. As such, all individuals should have a say in the development of that city and the basic human rights conferred through access to that citizenship (metaphorically and physically through transport networks).

Dr. Ogochukwu Ugboma, professor of Transport Studies and Lagos State

University, contends that it is not the planning, but plan implementation that is the problem. The surveys and community talks happen and supposedly that information is all included in the plans that decorate offices of public officials, but they are not transparent about how these projects will ultimately be built or carried out. Inevitably, when the pavement starts

96 To explain the context of this quote, residents evicted from public housing settlements in Delft, South Africa arrived at the courthouse en masse (1,600 strong) to register their claims for housing. Unable to handle the crowds within the courthouse, clerical staff were forced to bring tables and chairs out into the streets surrounding the building to fill out paperwork for each of the individuals present (Miraftab, 2009). 102 to be poured, there is something going on that isn’t in the plan or not shown in the official documents, which likely occurred because of some exchange of money at a high government level97. Thus, even if substantial improvements are made to the public engagement process, this feedback may inevitably fall prey to corrupt politics (as will be discussed in the next section).

POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE

Corruption in the Public Sector

Corruption in Nigeria is a serious problem. Nigeria ranks 148 out of 180 countries in the world on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International, 2018). The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime paired up with

Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics to carry out a public about corruption of public officials in Nigeria and the results were staggering. Of the surveyed Nigerian adults who had any contact with public officials one third of them (32%) either paid or were asked to pay that public official a bribe. These bribes average approximately 5,300 Naira (roughly $61 USD) and are paid an average of 5.8 times per year amounting to an astounding 1/8th of the average annual salary of these individuals/families. According to this report, roughly

400 billion Naira (more than $1.1B USD) in bribe money changes hands between citizens and public officials on a given year in Nigeria (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime & Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics, 2017). These payments obviously occur outside of the regulated formal system and consequently do not contribute to the efficient or equitable provision of public services and resources, but rather quite the opposite. Furthermore, the constantly changing views of political leaders predicated on these

97 Dr. (Mrs.) Ogochukwu Ugboma. Professor, Lagos State University (LASU) – School of Transport. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 23, 2018. 103 payments leads to a discontinuity and wasteful spending on projects that will soon be abandoned due to a change of heart or leadership98. This pay-to-play system of governance is ‘endemic’ within the political system, particularly in the complex personal networks established in the provision of transport. It is simply not in the best (personal) interest of those in power to modify governance of the informal sector. Political figures, NURTW union leadership, and the public officials that govern, police, and regulate the informal transit system (e.g. Lagos State MOT, LASTMA, etc.) reap sizeable profits from the system and the complex, murky money trail behind the scenes that is in place now (Akinwotu, 2016). Some vocal critics of the system include Mrs. Oby Ezekwesili, a co-founder of Transparency International and a crusader against government corruption. In her recent presidential campaign, she posited that the solution to corruption is two-fold: 1) deregulating the economy in ways to limit the direct power that public officials wield that they could potentially leverage for personal gain, and 2) setting strict punishments for those that commit corruption (Oby Ezekwesili qtd. in Amanpour, 2018). Ultimately, she did not win the bid and dropped out of the race a few weeks before the election, but her push “to move Nigerian politics toward issues rather than personalities and elite bargaining” (J. Campbell, 2019) paired with being a woman running for the most prominent position in a very patriarchal Nigerian civil society may be construed as too progressive for many Nigerians.

98 According to Seyi Osiyemi, a proponent of integration between the formal and informal sectors (rather than wholesale eradication of the informal system), the biggest next step for Lagos to address its transportation problems involves continuity and adherence to a plan that lasts longer than four years’ time - Mr. Seyi Osiyemi. Head of Bus Operations, LAGBUS Asset Management Ltd. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 20, 2018. 104 Regulation and Governance of the Transit System

On the other side of this debate for governance and regulatory control embodies the Lagos State Government’s general positionality. Along the lines of Cirolia’s (2017) institutional discourse, government entities would argue that they need more resources and regulatory power. The existing system amounts to a complex relationship of monetary ties and transactions predicated upon the threat of violence. This corruption embodies a “tax on the poor” (Oby Ezekwesili qtd. in Amanpour, 2018) through the incredible amount of leakage within the system that line the pockets of elites, but largely do not contribute to better infrastructure, working conditions, or efficient operation of the informal transit system. Prominent Peruvian economist and theorist Hernando De Soto (1989; 2000) contends that once the dormant assets of the informal sector are legally recognized and brought into the formal economy, then prosperity will flow to all; however, this solution is inherently flawed if the State does not affirmatively address systematic inequalities (Roy, 2005). De Soto’s contention about resultant wealth distribution directly relates to the Bus Reform Project, which may or may not address the concerns of the already precariously employed informal transit workers (see Agbiboa, 2016), who likely do not possess the formal skillsets (e.g. English language/literacy, education requirements, etc.) to gainfully participate in the formal system. As one LAMATA official stated in his interview with me:

“simply buying new buses will not change the culture of the drivers and operators”99. While recognizing the frequently cited downsides of the informal transit sector (e.g. poor quality of service, safety concerns, inefficiency and consequent congestion/air pollution, etc.), Dr. Pablo Salazar Ferro frames the integration between formal and informal

99 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 105 transit as a potentially complementary one: “instead of considering paratransit100 as a stop- gap solution to the lack of institutional transport, we should ask to what extent paratransit provides an adequate service, and at what point we can consider that it has reached its limits and that public authorities need to step in to ensure service” (Ferro, 2015b, p. 6). He contends that a complementary system including the co-existence of formal and informal services is indeed possible and that it has the capacity to embed more equity and sustainability into public transit systems (Ferro & Behrens, 2015, p. 123). For example, the flexible nature and operation of informal transit systems enables it to serve the growing, dense concentrations of poor residential areas on the periphery of megacities in the Global South. BRT trunk-line services and even other formalized mass transit feeder services are simply not well-suited to serve these areas for both quantitative (geometrically, larger buses struggle to navigate the sinuous and unmaintained roadways and paths that serve these areas) and qualitative (tacit knowledge and relationships established over years of providing informal transit service enables drivers to know when and where passenger demand will be) reasons. To the extent that informal transit services are significantly curtailed or eliminated through the formalization of the transit system, peripheral residents, most of whom are impoverished, will suddenly face a loss of accessibility (as seen in

Santiago, Chile after the implementation of the rigid feeder-trunk-distributor Transantiago system) (Ferro & Behrens, 2015; Garcia, 2007). This entirely undercuts Cirolia’s (2017) rights-based discourse, which is underpinned by the belief that “access for all is the grandest imperative, the implications of which fall primarily on the state” (p. 450). Recognizing the value of the informal transit sector in achieving an equitable and

100 Ferro does not refer to these services as “informal” and prefers the term “paratransit” because he studies a wide range of these types of operations across many different countries and contexts. In many of these cases, the demand-responsive, flexible services that do not follow fixed routes or schedules are not wholly informal or unregulated (Ferro & Behrens, 2015). 106 sustainable system that provides access to all residents is the first step in defining this potentially complementary relationship between the formal and informal sectors. Engagement of the informal sector and facilitating their meaningful inclusion into the formal transportation sector is not a simple task. Literature focused on the integration of informal sector entities into the build out of a formal transit system emphasize the difficulty of engaging the “fragmented” nature of the informal system (e.g., Behrens et al., 2017; Ferro, 2015b; Ferro & Behrens, 2015; Godard, 2013b; Paget-Seekins, Flores Dewey, & Muñoz, 2015; Schalekamp & Behrens, 2010). Indeed, the horizontal (dis)organization of thousands of independent operators across Lagos has proven challenging, but LAMATA realizes that reform is quicker and performance better with their buy-in101. While operators all pay fees to be members of the NURTW, this only affords them the ability to be employed in the industry – it does not confer collective bargaining rights as the word “union” generally denotes. While leaders of the NURTW have been engaged through this process as stakeholders, their interests are likely dissimilar from that of both the vehicle owners and particularly those of the drivers and conductors at the bottom of this hierarchical ladder. Danfo owners desire an equity stake in the system, something tangible that they can pass on to their children102. Meanwhile operators in the system represent a labor force with minimal skills that would be handsomely rewarded in the formal sector. Given that undergoing significant personal growth to become a bus driver in the formal system will likely not raise that individual out of poverty, a World Bank Report contends that informal transit operators may prefer to remain in the informal sector

101 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde. LAMATA Director of Corporate and Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 18, 2018. 102 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde. LAMATA Director of Corporate and Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 18, 2018. 107 because of the “measure of dignity and autonomy” that a formal job regularly completing repetitive tasks would not satisfy (Maloney, 2003, p. 15). Most successful integration examples in Africa have mostly focused on figuring out a way to consolidate operators into associations or interest groups. In Kenya, matatu operators have formed Savings and Credit Cooperatives (SACCOs) that have resulted in improved service quality, regulatory compliance, and technology adoption through operator consolidation, a transition to a salaried workforce, and systematic vehicle monitoring sponsored and overseen by the government transport authority (Behrens et al.,

2017). And in Dakar, Senegal, a novel program leveraged a government fleet renewal program, which required operators to band together into economic interest groups (EIGs) to access financing mechanisms to acquire the new vehicles and compete for concession agreements on the city’s most productive routes (Godard, 2013b). These efforts take time and patient negotiation. As illustrated in Figure 37 below, a wide spectrum of balance between institutional (formal) versus personal (informal) responsibilities exist in this space. Still methodologies that work in Dakar or Nairobi cannot simply be copied and pasted into Lagos and be expected to work (Schalekamp & Behrens, 2010). The complex set of relationships and social infrastructure present within the NURTW presents a unique situation that warrants an adaptive and unique local solution.

108

Figure 37: Spectrum of governance/regulation of public transport entities in Turkey ranging from fully individualized to entirely institutional transit operation (Figure Source: Yildizgoz, 2017).

What remains clear in all global attempts to incorporate formal and informal transit into one complementary system is that it requires time (Godard, 2013b), funding (Schalekamp, 2017), and usually significant compromise (Flores-Dewey & Zegras, 2012).

As it stands, danfo operators in Lagos face no incentives to undergo fleet renewal, introduce safety improvements, or collaborate to improve the quality of their services whatsoever. Community benefits conferred from things like improved salary benefits for drivers and putting seat belts in buses cost money. Since the unsubsidized laissez-faire system is predicated on profit maximization in an environment where passenger price elasticity is incredibly high, these improvements likely would result in operating at a loss, or at least at smaller profit margins. Actors in the informal system are not going to

109 spontaneously “professionalize” (Ferro, 2015b, p. 34) themselves for free for the general benefit of the community. As such, in order to (even partially) formalize the informal transit sector the government must be prepared to internalize the costs previously embedded within negative externalities of the system (Paget-Seekins, 2015). Rationalizations that these costs will somehow disappear through improved efficiencies are unfounded. Cape Town, South Africa grossly underestimated the costs and level of effort required to transition actors within the informal transit system into the formal operation of the city’s first BRT service (Schalekamp, 2017). Similarly, both Santiago,

Chile and Bogotá, Colombia designed their formalization agenda with the goal of minimizing public subsidies, which has resulted in higher fares, lower frequencies, and overcrowding (Paget-Seekins, 2015). Padget-Seekins et al. (2015) argue that paradoxically, these results create a new opening in the market that could be filled by the informal services these systems intend to replace. Flores-Dewey and Zegras (2012) describe this spectrum of different efforts to incorporate formality and informality into one system as a continuum ranging from forcing to fostering reform, as shown in Figure 38. Lagos’ position represented in Figure 38 reflects the development of the initial BRT line, which was originally operated by a cooperative formed by the NURTW. This effort ultimately failed, and the BRT is now operated by a private company. Consequently, Lagos has moved up the continuum toward Santiago and Bogotá.

110

Figure 38: The “force-foster continuum” describes a spectrum of case studies with varying degrees of engagement and inclusion of the informal transit sector within the build-out of the formal BRT system in each respective city (Image Source: Flores-Dewey & Zegras, 2012).

111 In terms of operational arrangements, Ferro, Behrens and Golub (2012) have examined the predominant methods to this integration: reward schemes, feeder area licensing, and concessioning. Trunk-feeder-distributor BRT systems rely on first and last mile services to connect people to the BRT. Nearly 70% of BRT riders use informal motorized transport (either danfos or okadas) at one or both ends of their trip (Mobereola,

2009; Olawole, 2012). The flexibility of informal services makes them particularly well- suited to capture these short feeder/distributor trips. Reward schemes allow informal services to continue to operate as is and attempt to stymie parallel competition by offering operators a reward for every passenger delivered to a formal BRT station. Such an arrangement has been successful in Quito, Ecuador, but failed in Jakarta, Indonesia due to a lack of trust that these reward payments would ever reach the driver’s pocket (Ferro et al., 2012). Feeder area licensing is a slightly more regulated version of reward schemes in that informal transit operators are licensed to ply a pre-defined area that feed into the BRT trunk-line stations. A successful application of this tactic, found in Recife, Brazil, required system planning efforts to realign paratransit routes to serve low-income neighborhoods and feed into BRT transfer stations (Ferro et al., 2012). Lastly, concessionaire schemes involve the planned network operator defining a set of specific routes (and stops) that a third-party operator will serve through a structured contractual obligation. The Lagos Bus

Reform Project embodies the third approach, the concessionaire scheme, which has involved the procurement of rolling stock by LAMATA. These new buses will be franchised out for operation in five separate zones, Ikeja being the first, with a maximum of one bus operating company per zone103. In an interview with the author, LAMATA’s Director of Bus Service Planning indicated that the NURTW would be a part of the

103 Dr. Frederick Oladeinde. LAMATA Director of Corporate and Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 18, 2018. 112 operations of the formal system in the future104, but it remains to be seen what role that may be considering the previous failure to incorporate them into the operation of the formal BRT system. Paget-Seekins (2015) would caution that sometimes the methods employed do not matter so much though if the end result of the project creates a closed system in which the infrastructure and operations of the new transit services are only accessible by large corporations centered in neoliberal ideals. While certainly not a trivial process, numerous case studies across the globe have reaped the benefits of leveraging the individual strengths of the formal and informal transit sectors to forge a complementary system. Based on these cases, the incremental formalization process in Lagos seems to be on the right track. However, authorities in Nigeria have yet to develop a method of forging operation associations in order to better engage the incredibly fragmented amalgamation of agents in the informal system. High- level conversations with NURTW elites will not suffice. Thus, in order to truly achieve buy-in and complementary support from the informal transit sector, formal entities in Lagos need to be prepared to spend sizeable amounts of money and time and be willing to make compromises to what they might envision as a rigid contractual agreement.

INFRASTRUCTURE DESIGN

Design and Assemblage Theory

Although the transportation industry is predominantly dedicated to the provision of mobility and movement, the landscapes and places defined by transport confer a sense of place that does not always comport with the modernist ideals of organized, efficient movement. Shamsuddin and Ujang (2008) note that best practices in urban design denote

104 Dr. Desmond Amiegbebhor, LAMATA, Director of Bus Service Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn on July 18, 2018 113 that good places are accessible, legible, comfortable, and diverse, providing effective places for human activity and interaction. In reality, they contend that sense of place requires people to establish an authentic connection and attachment to that space through lived experiences, which is becoming harder and harder as globalization has standardized the definition of well-designed products (Shamsuddin & Ujang, 2008). The mostly Western concept of livable and sustainable street design -- providing delineated boundaries for automobiles, cyclists, public transit, pedestrians walking (“pedestrian through zone”) and pedestrians resting (“furniture zone”) (see Jacobs, 1993; National Association of City

Transportation Officials, 2013) – does not make sense in Lagos, as much as some authorities want to make it work there. Kamete (2013b, p. 17) would go as far as to call these best practices nothing more than a “fetish about formality that is fueled by an obsession with urban modernity”. LAMATA’s Strategic Transport Master Plan and the Bus Reform Project are largely based on the concept of eventual eradication of services, which illustrates Kamete’s contention that the “fetish” for modernity dictates that formal order cannot possibly “coexist with the ‘disorder’ and spatial ‘unruliness’ of informality” (Kamete, 2013b, p. 17). I think that Roy (2005) would concur with this conceptualization as she notes that the State, through control of planning and legal apparatuses, ultimately holds the power to define where this line should be between formality and informality. This classification then feeds in to a “normalization” of spaces undertaken by the government through a process of “regulation and criminalization” (Kamete, 2013a, p. 641). I would argue though that there are means of using design to be inclusive of both the formal and the informal in the same space. According to Lutzoni (2016), this requires design thinking that draws from the dual tension between formal knowledge and informal forms.

114 Dovey (2012) employs assemblage theory as a framework to analyze urban design and informal placemaking. In parallel with Alexander’s (2013, orig. 1965) seminal essay ‘A City is Not a Tree’, Dovey (2012, p. 358) argues that “urban place identity emerges as a dynamic tension between rhizomic105 practices of everyday life and hierarchical systems of spatial control”. These tensions force the informal transit system to be incredibly adaptive and unpredictable, artfully negotiating spaces (with bribes) while strategically determining which laws can be tactfully transgressed. In fact, criminalization of the sector is part of this negotiation that motivates the flexibility of the informal system from the start.

In 2004, the Lagos State Government established the Public Transportation Registration and Restriction Law, designating all operators outside of the handful of remaining formal Lagbus routes as illegal (Mobereola, 2009). Though this largely unenforceable edict is no longer on the books, it represents the ultimate vision of the State to eradicate informality with modern urban planning and design. Describing the informal transit sector in Lagos as rhizomic evokes Cirolia’s (2017) structural discourse of informality, which attributes the existence of informality to systems of hierarchical knowledge, and the overpowering capitalist system. The only viable way to reconfigure these structures of oppression is through real democratic practices involving negotiation and compromise.

In other contexts within the informal economy (e.g. informal settlements, street vending, etc.), the “quiet encroachment of the ordinary” has allowed for the “protracted but pervasive advancement of the ordinary people on the propertied and powerful” (Bayat, 2000, p. 545). In transit, however, even though the informal system has certainly become ordinary, the benefits from this recognition are only conferred to those with enough social

105 Encyclopaedia Britannica describes a “rhizome” or “creeping rootstalk” as a “horizontal underground plant stem capable of producing the shoot and root systems of a new plant … [which] allow the parent plant to propagate vegitatively” (“Rhizome,” 2019). Deleuze and Guattari (1987) have applied this concept in a philosophical manner to frame knowledge and research in a multiple, horizontal manner, opposed to the hierarchical (and tree-like) conception of knowledge. 115 capital to extract resources from these public spaces (Agbiboa, 2016). While danfo operators may be able to extract value from the temporary use of public spaces (e.g. government constructed bus stops, public roadways, etc.) they pay handsome fees to NURTW agberos and police officers in order to do so. As such, the ordinary people (danfo operators) are simply allowing for the propertied and powerful to further benefit from their corrupt colonization of public spaces. Part of the Bus Reform Project involves the construction of numerous transit hub bus transfer stations (see Chapters 2 and 5). These facilities are designed to incorporate both local and long-haul formal transit services; however, LAMATA has designed them to specifically be inaccessible to informal service providers. Physical design of facilities to exclude informal operations does not necessarily preclude their proliferation in these areas.

The informal transit system exists as a result of the incredible demand for travel that the formal system does not currently address. Even in places that are designed to explicitly prioritize formal transit services and curtail the use of informal transit modes (e.g. see Figure 39 below of TBS and Ikorodu BRT stations), danfo operators stake claim to public right-of-way to assert their presence and continue to serve passenger demand. Market mechanisms at play discussed in Chapter 4 that force informal transit operators to maximize profits by any means necessary inherently result in creative, adaptive, and resilient methods of service provision106. As such, I would argue that informal transit services still have a functional position (albeit in a different or altered capacity) in the future

106 During the initial implementation of the BRT route between Mile 12 and Marina, sensing the accessibility constraints of the single BRT line, danfo services proactively adapted their services by moving their stops closer to people’s homes (further inside neighborhoods) off of the BRT corridor so that people would choose danfo services over walking to the BRT stations. Ultimately, the operating concessionaire, Primero, complained of this cannibalization of BRT ridership, which impacted their ability to remain solvent. Subsequent negotiations with operators of these danfo routes and overseeing NURTW officials resulted in some type of compromise. – Dr. Frederick Oladeinde, LAMATA, Director of Corporate & Investment Planning. Interview with L. Alcorn, July 18, 2018. 116 fully formalized vision of the Bus Reform Project. This negotiation, however, must result from compromise from both sides. Formal actors may need to concede some of the elements of hierarchy and boundary-based urban forms, while informal agents may need to establish more order.

Figure 39: Despite a planned built-environment specifically tailored to prioritize formal transit services and preclude/inhibit informal transit operation with fences, curbs, and other physical obstacles, danfos still assert their presence to serve passenger demand at Ikorodu Station (left) and TBS Station near the CBD (right) (Photo source: L. Alcorn, 2018).

TECHNOLOGY

Of Cirolia’s (2017) four competing discourses on upgrading informality, technology seems to be the one discussed most often. Funding availability has a lot to do with this. Both international development agencies and local politicians are specifically looking for ways to apply some visible, physical intervention to come to an innovative solution. Reducing the complex underpinnings that combine to produce the informal transport sector in Lagos to a design challenge that can potentially be ‘solved’ at a 72-hour hack-a-thon of the best and brightest minds in Africa and beyond is highly problematic. Technology can provide a valuable tool to improving urban life through the betterment of 117 the informal sector, but more often than not these efforts are temporary in nature and not contextually informed through democratic processes of public engagement. As such, it remains paramount to focus on technological interventions that incorporate grassroots input through ongoing processes that continually benefit these communities, rather than serving as “playgrounds of experimentation … for international and local practitioners to explore new terrains, contexts and even markets (for their goods and services)” (Cirolia, 2017, p. 447).

African Smart Cities

Harkening back to the ideas of Congolese philosopher V.Y. Mudimbe (introduced in Chapter 1), who advocates for Afrocentric perspectives critical of the traditional

European insights manifest in Africa today, Lagosians should remain vigilant of ploys that sound too good to be true. As described previously, the culture, social networks, and dominant presence of the informal economy in Lagos combine to form a unique context within which simply applying a Western-centric episteme would not generate positive results. Smart city concepts from the Global North envision sensors and automated, connected networks that allow for a computerized and optimized urban environment predicated on the maximization of safe and efficient operations (Accenture Strategy, 2017). In Lagos, most of urban life is governed by urban systems entirely defined by unpredictability upon which outcomes emerge from adaptive practices and rhizomic self- organization (see Dovey, 2012). As African leaders and civil societies contemplate the prospect of building out African Smart Cities, they should take the time and effort to refine and reinvent these ideas and strategies to create something for Africa by Africa. Lagos has

118 the unique opportunity to be a leader in the movement as long as the strategies pursued are guided by the following motto: “Smart cities start with people, not technology”107. In the presentation of his paper ‘Re-Positioning Africa through Technology and Urban Innovation’ at the Africa Smart City conference in July of 2018, lead speaker Dr. Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka argues that developments of smart cities can help Lagos leapfrog108 into the company of global, world-class cities through two models of urban innovation: 1) radical and 2) adaptive. The Eko Atlantic Smart City (see Figure 40 below) embodies radical urban innovation. It is a blank slate planned to accommodate the creation of 250,000 jobs at no external cost to the Lagos State government, complete with self- sustaining infrastructure systems and cutting-edge technologies. The adaptive approach progresses incrementally, improving urban quality of life and city services of existing urban spaces, slowly, but surely.

107 Mr. Ingo Herbert. German Consul General to Nigeria. Keynote address at the Africa Smart City Conference at the University of Lagos on July 24, 2018. 108 In this context, “leapfrog” refers to the ability of African nations to skip steps in technological development that have already become defunct or old news. For example, even though 66% of sub-Saharan Africans are considered ‘unbanked’ with no access to formal banking services, Africa is ahead of Western nations in adopting mobile currencies and peer-to-peer finance technologies (Botha, 2019). 119

Figure 40: (Top Left*) dredging boat generating fill for the Eko Atlantic City. (Top Right*) University of Lagos student field trip to the “Great Wall of Lagos” built to protect Eko Atlantic City from surges in the Atlantic Ocean. (Bottom**) The entire purple highlighted area on this map used to be part of the Atlantic Ocean and has since been filled in to create a 10 sq. km developable plot of land for the Eko Atlantic City (Image Sources: *L. Alcorn, 2018 and (**Onuoha, 2017)).

Generally, my reflection on my attendance of the Africa Smart City conference was quite critical. Citing my journal entry from July 26, 2018, I penned:

120 “The focus of the conference is smart cities – using technology and innovative thinking to make cities function better for the people that live within them; however, little was said of these people in Lagos or how a smart Lagos would be inclusive of their needs. Every planning/government interaction here either seems to be focused on either: 1) How can we make the city function better for those that can afford it? How can

we modernize Lagos to make the city more livable and tolerable for those at the top of the social ranks? 2) How can we leverage our civic infrastructure and people to entice investment?

How can we use public money to generate internally-generated-revenue

through public-private-partnerships (PPP’s)?”109 In my opinion, the radical urban innovation approach of fighting mother nature by pouring sand into the Atlantic Ocean to create a land mass to be solely inhabited by the ultra-rich is not ‘smart’ in any sense of the word. The plans for Eko Atlantic call for a gated enclave of corporations and wealthy residents admitted only upon passing facial recognition tests conducted at the entrance gates. This elucidates the worry that these large, market-driven infrastructure projects (and government’s focus on ‘smart city’ development more generally) further exacerbate spatial and social inequality (Fält, 2016; Watson, 2014).

According to the real estate agent at the Eko Atlantic showroom, “[Eko Atlantic] cannot solve Lagos’ problems, too. [Eko Atlantic] is not here to bridge the gap between the rich and the poor, it is here to provide the best that we can – electricity, water, etc.”110 Consequently, the new gated community will contain its own power plant and electric bus service that will only function within the confines of the 10 square kilometers of Eko

109 Personal journal entry reflecting on the Africa Smart City Conference. University of Lagos. July 26, 2018. 110 Informal conversation with real estate agent at the Eko Atlantic showroom with L. Alcorn on July 27, 2018. 121 Atlantic. This type of development utterly ignores one of the core pillars of smart cities: inclusivity (Inclusive Smart Cities, 2017).

Transportation Start-ups Making Noise in Lagos

With a general lack of faith in government to deliver substantially transformative infrastructure or guidance, innovative start-ups in sub-Saharan Africa have begun to brainstorm ways to address wicked transport problems with technology. With the successful implementation of Uber and Taxify as alternatives to the previously loathsome taxi industry in Lagos, hopes are high for other similar services to revolutionize other modes of transport. During my visit to Lagos, the Gokada app debuted its services – it now has over 100,000 downloads on the Google Play store. With the ability to request a ride on your phone and the provision of a motorcycle helmet to passengers, it provides a safer, more reliable and regulated alternative to the traditional okada service. A similar app for keke maruwas (motorized tricycles) called Matatu operates under the same concept. While these app-based developments are promising, the majority of motorized trips in Lagos take place on danfo minibuses. In December of 2018, Uber launched UberBus in Cairo, Egypt, essentially an air-conditioned, app-based alternative to existing minibus services (Dahir, 2018). Two similar services attempting to leverage app-based ride-hailing on 23-26 seater buses, Little and Swvl, launched pilot projects in Nairobi, Kenya in 2019 (Dahir, 2019). Still, it remains unclear whether these types of operation can work at scale. Charging 2 to 4 times the fare of metro and traditional minibus services is a steep premium to pay, particularly for the city’s lowest-income residents (Marx, 2018). Enter lara.ng. The three-man start-up has forged a data-lite web browser app that allows people to ask a bot (named Lara) directions from place to place. From the user’s perspective, the concept is simple, equivalent to sending a WhatsApp message to your

122 uncle or aunt or friend who might know the way. Lara responds within seconds with a recommended route and itinerary along with rough cost estimates of each segment of the trip (see Figure 41). The dynamic nature of this system and the “interactions of residents that operate” (Simone, 2004, p. 407) within it require an equally adaptive tool to navigate it. Drawing from not just one uncle or aunt, but rather hundreds of active users, Lara.ng crowdsources the most up to date information for the 800+ danfo routes that crisscross the megacity, thereby offering a virtual platform to access a holistic, collaborative knowledge base.

Figure 41: Lara.ng app interface mimics that of WhatsApp in order to simulate having a conversation with a friend or relative about directions

In place of the digital infrastructure that allows one to navigate transit systems elsewhere in the world using Google Maps, Lara.ng leverages the concept of “people as infrastructure” coined by AbdouMaliq Simone (2004) to describe the collaborative social networks that develop as a response to lack of formal physical infrastructure and services

123 in African cities. While most indicate that the danfo system is not optimal, Lara.ng makes the best of transportation resources at hand by amassing collective knowledge into a free, open, and accessible platform. These types of creative innovation represent the true potential of the African continent and of Lagos in particular as it continues to cope with rapid urbanization, aging infrastructure, and the power of contextual innovation.

CONCLUSIONS

Using Arnstein’s (1969) ladder as a tool, contextualized to the complex local context in Lagos, I conclude that public involvement in the planning of transit and transport infrastructure is lacking. The top-down, techno-managerial methods of master planning are pervasive, especially in a technical field like transport, leaving little room for adaptation based on feedback. Though the informal sector does not attempt to substantially engage the community either, the operators within the informal system are forced to maintain an intimate knowledge of travel patterns in order to meet their daily profit margins to survive. These relationships and spatially situated knowledges are something intangible that a formalized system cannot possibly commodify or provide. To establish this mutually beneficial partnership between formal and informal will require tradeoffs from both sides, and most importantly, a significant uphill battle to quell commonplace institutional corruption that significantly drains the system of its already minimal financial resources. Leveraging creative governance schemes supported by coalition-building, and inclusive applications of technology and infrastructure design will help to transform the formal/informal binary into more of a continuous spectrum. If completed in a manner that represents the will of the people, this will forge a collaborative system that benefits from the strengths and connections embedded in the roles of all actors.

124 Chapter 7: Research Conclusions and Recommendations

This chapter functions to synthesize the vast array of information presented in the previous five chapters into succinct responses to each of the originally formulated research questions guiding this project. Conclusions and recommendations distilled herein are based on the interpretation and synthesis of information from the multitude of sources and methods employed in this research effort, including but not limited to: academic literature, newspaper articles, semi-structured interviews, informal conversations, lived-experience journaling, primary source documents (e.g. planning documents), and conference attendance.

RESPONSES TO RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Research Question 1: What methods of politics and governance can foster the incorporation of both formal and informal transit services into a safe, accessible, and intermodal transportation landscape in Lagos?

Politics

Roy (2005) distills the idea of “The Politics of Shit”111, which recognizes the importance of renewing and expanding public infrastructure systems, but at the same time points out that provision of this infrastructure is a political issue, not a technical one. Public transport in Lagos is a huge point of contention in local politics. The current governor of Lagos State, Akinwunmi Ambode, is a large proponent of the modernization of the transport system, as is the Nigerian president Buhari. Furthermore, ground troops employed by the NURTW hold a massive amount of political sway. This relates to Benjamin’s (2008) description of “vote bank politics” leveraged in Indian cities. Politicians

111 “The Politics of Shit” refers specifically to a World Bank project in India that sought to improve sanitary conditions in informal settlements through the deployment of public toilets and feces management strategies (Roy, 2005, pp. 151–152). 125 are keen to promise transformational changes to the system, but in Nigeria, history tells the story that implementation lags far behind. Waves of political change (not dissimilar to that of the pendulum swings in the United States’ executive and legislative branches of government) make continuity nearly impossible in Lagos. The definition of long-range plans is meant to combat this, but infrastructure build-out still focuses on a project-by- project basis, which lacks a coherent unifying vision that goes much further than establishing order. Furthermore, since meaningful public engagement likely played a minimal role in the creation of these plans, politicians lack popular support by simply embracing the items outlined in the plan and consequently projects are abandoned or curtailed significantly as they seek to redefine priorities to achieve reelection. Lagos’ transportation problems cannot feasibly be remedied without firmly addressing corruption prevalent within all levels of the governance and regulation of both the formal and informal systems. On the formal side, corruption is manifest in the procurement and contracting processes – white collar corruption. Meanwhile, on the informal side, to obtain the privilege to ply a danfo route, an operator must first pay the formal government entity (Lagos State MOT) for a license and then local NURTW branch for licensing and membership fees. On the road, the vast majority of gross operation costs in the informal sector go directly to paying bribes (or ‘union fees’) to NURTW agberos, local area boy gangs, or police officers. This accepted modus operandi fuels the cutthroat environment of profit maximization within the informal sector that results in lapses in safety due to poor maintenance and dangerous driving tactics. Since drivers and conductors only get paid if the fares they collect exceed the total costs from bribes and the daily fee they pay to the owner of the danfo, this daily dance places informal transit workers in a precarious fight for daily survival that results in the image of loosely managed chaos on the streets of Lagos. Understandably, in this environment, drivers are not overly concerned 126 about quality of service. The prominence of bribery at all levels of government fosters a system that breeds a culture of inefficiency. This leakage bleeds resources from already cash-strapped government budgets to line the pockets of those who already possess power. Policies specifically geared toward cleaning up the corruption problem in the transit sector will be difficult to enforce. Despite contradictions with the Nigerian Constitution and legislation from the past Fashola administration (Agbiboa, 2016) that expressly prohibit agberos from collecting of taxes or fees along roadways, this custom continues unabated and unpoliced. In fact, NURTW and LASTMA can regularly be found working side by side, extracting bribes to fund their informal and formal bosses, respectively. Aside from creating a stressful and dangerous work environment for danfo operators, the extraction of these fees is ultimately passed down to the passengers of these services in the form of increased fares and time costs associated with traffic congestion that results from these stops. Indirectly, everyone pays these fees, which do not go toward service improvement or infrastructure maintenance/renewal. Consequently, transit fares as a proportion of average daily income in Lagos exceed that of nearly any other place in Africa (Ferro, 2015b). The stand against corruption needs to begin somewhere and with the general popular distaste with illegal road taxes, starting a meaningful two-way dialogue between

Lagos State Government authorities (LAMATA & Lagos State MOT) and the NURTW may well be the right place to start. What remains certain is that neither of these organizations will simply disappear – their powers remain quite different in shape, but similar in magnitude. This negotiated conversation will require formal planners and policy makers to part with their “preferred role as technical experts” within a rigidly structured process (Kamete, 2009, p. 85) to one of more adaptive fluidity. If informal actors sense that the engagement possesses paternalistic asymmetry in power dynamics through the 127 dominance of technocratic institutional frameworks, they will exhibit “tactical resistance” (Kamete, 2009, p. 99) to protect their interests. Since the NURTW receives no formal government funding, it lacks operating income. Cutting out agberos means cutting out a large portion of revenues that fund NURTW operations. If the system is to be cleaned up, NURTW officials will likely contend that the government must find some source of funding to supplement these losses – perhaps through equity stakes in the build out of the formal transit system trunk lines. This policy (or general criminalization of the informal sector in general) will also result in the layoff of thousands of agberos, many of whom lack few formal tradeable skills aside from extortive violence. Workforce development programs initiated before the enforcement of these systematic changes will be important to ensure that this transition does not lead to massive upticks in unemployment and crime. Overall, policies should be used to inhibit corruption and provide an equal voice to the rank-and-file operators and agberos who form the foundation of the system itself.

Governance

Ananya Roy (2005) classifies informality as a mode of urbanization -- “not a separate sector, but rather a series of transactions that connect different economies and spaces to one another” (p. 148). This characterization perfectly describes the danfo system in Lagos, which serves as the primary means of motorized passenger transport in the rapidly urbanizing megacity. Using this framework, we can envision the role of the informal system as complementary alongside the build-out of the future suite of formal transit lines. Extrapolating this concept, termed “subaltern urbanism” (Roy, 2011), overcomes the overtly modernist voices that insist that the formal and informal cannot practically interact in partnership.

128 Transitioning from the theoretical to practical, Lagos can draw inspiration from fellow sub-Saharan nations who have endeavored to forge this relationship (see discussion about efforts in Kenya, Senegal, and South Africa in Chapter 6). The danfo system comes with a variety of social costs – abusive labor conditions, lack of concern for public safety or environmental impacts, inefficient management and resulting traffic congestion. Still, the dynamic nature of the informal system confers strengths as well – flexible and adaptive operations in tune with passenger demands, high frequency of service, ability to navigate small streets and provide coverage to populations that otherwise would lack formal transit services. While seeking to minimize the shortfalls of informal transit services, efforts to incorporate informal operations (or at least a version of their modus operandi) into the build out of formal transit systems across the Global South simultaneously elucidates their strengths. The first step of this process addresses the fragmentation of the informal system through coalition-building. This involves accommodating, encouraging, or requiring horizontally-related actors within the system to group together into interest groups or operating associations through incentive programs, laws, or a combination of the two. Cervero and Golub (2007) contend that this organization among informal agents can lower per-seat costs in a manner that makes these informal cooperatives cost competitive with larger operating organizations, like the private companies operating formal transit systems in Lagos. To the extent that these cost savings can be paired with enforceable basic requirements for passenger safety and service quality, this type of scheme potentially represents a win-win for both the informal and formal transport sectors. Of course, there is a wrinkle in this contention. The NURTW would argue that as the official national union of all road and transport workers, their organization’s variety of local chapter branches that operate and informally regulate danfo services in Lagos already represent these interests. However, unlike Senegalese EIG’s and Kenyan SACCO’s, the 129 NURTW does nothing to address the root causes of poor service quality through the establishment of driver salaries, cooperative savings for maintenance and vehicle renewal, or fare and route coordination. Furthermore, the NURTW generally does not represent the interests of the system operators and offers no incentives for individual operators to collaborate. In fact, the entire system is predicated on the values of a survivalist version of laissez faire, dog-eat-dog, revenue maximization where union leaders profit handsomely from the blood and sweat shed in the day to day operations of the system. Ferro (2018) emphasizes the distinct difference between unions and associations in this context112: associations oversee operational procedures of the system and offer members representation through the payment of a fee while unions operate more like syndicates and are closely tied with political figures.

To date, NURTW elites have been engaged (and likely compensated) as a part of the development of the future formal transit plans in Lagos. However, recent attempts by LAMATA to forge working partnerships with this organization have failed. As mentioned previously, the NURTW cooperative established initially to employ former informal sector actors in the operation of the city’s first BRT line failed to live up to expectations. Agents on both sides of this equation (formal and informal) will argue the limitations of this relationship between a formal hegemonic representation of State power (LAMATA) and an equally (if not more) powerful mafia-esque organization built on deeply-rooted corruption, bribery, and systemic violence. As such, I would propose the formation of separate intermediary operator associations. These organizations will not concoct themselves organically and there will likely be challenges implementing this type of organizational scheme ‘under the noses’ of the NURTW. In order for LAMATA’s visions

112 Based on his research in francophone Africa. 130 in the Bus Reform Project and the Lagos State Transport Master Plan to come to fruition, they will need the buy-in and partnership of the informal sector – they will likely never develop the capacity to fulfil the incredible demand for passenger transport in the megacity through entirely formal means. This process of coalition-building and establishing collaborative relationships with the informal transit sector will require significant time, financing, and compromise. The potential up-sides of this complementary relationship far outweigh these costs, but this type of engagement will require a departure (or detour) from the traditionally scientific planning methods (see Kamete, 2009; Porter, 2006; Watson,

2009b) largely employed by LAMATA today.

Research Question 2: What institutional, structural, or technological methods can be employed to affirmatively design a more effective, equitable, and sustainable transport system in Lagos?

Physical Design

The informal transit sector in Lagos defines its own spaces of connection through a fleet-footed, adaptive means of service provision. The reasons for this are multifold and stem from the need to maximize profits to survive the daily remunerative battle against time while seeking to minimize prosecution by authority figures (in the form of paying bribes to informal or formal actors). Holistic planning and regulation of the informal system is absent from this framework and as such the management of routes, fares, and service provision is left up to the operators themselves. Modernist infrastructure design specifications for future transit facilities in Lagos (as envisioned by the LAMATA Strategic Transport Master Plan and the Bus Reform Project) are designed to explicitly prohibit danfos and other informal operations. These transit hubs and corridors are designed based on principles of hierarchical order and efficiency – concepts that generally do not comport with the informal system. This is 131 intentional. The plan to eventually “absolve” danfos into the formal system through their incremental eradication illustrates governmental “normalization” in the process of cutting out this perceived disorder (Kamete, 2013a, p. 641, 2013a, p. 17). The fact of the matter remains that LAMATA’s formal services will never be able to provide the highest level of service to all corners of the sprawling Lagos megacity. The flexibility embedded in the culture and operations of the danfo system represents an advantage that future plans should endeavor to maintain where gaps in the formal network exist. Furthermore, as evidenced in the limiting factors associated with official, ‘invited’ public outreach efforts to date, the formal system may be oblivious as to where these gaps are located. Danfo operators, on the other hand, are forced to intimately understand the complex intricacies of travel patterns by day, time, season, etc. in order to maximize their ability to provide for themselves. As such, I would argue that the incorporation of danfos into the future plans for transit in Lagos is imperative. Their explicit functionality may differ, but the unique cultural aspects that they produce along with the logical advantages of their operations combine to produce an incredibly valuable piece of the transportation system.

Technology

Technology has the capability to aid the connection between the conflicting rationalities of the informal and formal transit systems in Lagos. While gaps are overtly present in Nigeria in the realm of transport and other civil infrastructure systems, the telecommunications industry has grown rapidly. Mobile phones have achieved an 84% penetration rate nationwide – numbers that are much higher in Lagos, the country’s commercial capital and economic powerhouse megacity (Adepetun, 2018). This development has allowed mobile applications to flourish throughout Africa’s largest city.

132 App-based transportation companies are applying elements of ride-hailing successes seen abroad to the transport system in Lagos. Furthermore, mobile platforms that focus on digitizing informal transport (e.g., Lara.ng) can help facilitate connection and collaboration between the formal and informal transportation sectors. Using technology to help manage the transportation system can cut down on corruption (through adoption of electronic payment systems), establish accountability (through an electronic paper trail of transactions), and help optimize efficiencies throughout the network. In the age of smart cities, much attention is paid to Cirolia’s (2017) technology and design discourse of upgrading the informal sectors of the Global South. While this discourse is politically popular, conjuring images of connected utopian metropoles of the future (e.g. Wakanda in the 2018 motion picture Black Panther113). It is important to ensure that employment of technology and design solutions serve to first address basic service and housing needs of the urban poor (Watson, 2014), rather than making African megacities marginally more tolerable/navigable for those who can afford it. Parking sensors enabling those who have the privilege to own and operate their personal vehicles to spend less time circling the block in search of parking should not be a priority when reliable basic services like electricity, water, and shelter are not accessible to the majority of urban residents114.

This kind of thinking misappropriates the intentions of smart cities, transforming ideas of leveraging innovation to creatively generate new connections and methods of service

113 Wakanda is a wealthy, utopian nation state set in futuristic Africa protected from the outside world by special supernatural powers. The images of this place depict dense development connected by flying vehicles set amidst a beautiful, verdant rainforest. This movie has drawn fanfare globally, but has been particularly popular within Lagos, the center of Nollywood (Akwagyiram, 2018). 114 In presentation of his lead paper Africa’s Smart City Agenda: Re-positioning Africa through Technology and Urban Innovation, Dr. Oyeyinka only mentioned transport in the context of smart cities once – to laud the SF Park app/system in San Francisco. In Lagos, the vast majority of residents cannot afford private vehicles and rely on public transport or walking. Most people will never operate a vehicle or have a need to find a parking place. - Dr. Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka. Professor, The Open University (UK). Lead Speaker at the Africa Smart City Conference at the University of Lagos on July 24, 2018. 133 delivery to a novelty to be experienced only by those who can afford it. The Eko Atlantic Smart City is an egregious example of this train of thought, which literally seeks to manufacture a separate city adjacent to Lagos that can benefit from the embedded strengths and synergies of the megacity, without ever having to leave the confines of the safe and sanitary Eko Atlantic enclave. Creating separate systems for the rich and the poor will only serve to exacerbate social and spatial inequality in Lagos. Inclusivity, open, and transparent practices of smart city development that leverage technologies to benefit all citizens will be key to overcoming these issues.

Research Question 3: What is the general public perception of the formalized transit infrastructure improvements (e.g. BRT, rail lines, etc.) and the way they have come to fruition and how can this inform future development in the transport system?

Expectation for reliable, quality government-provided services are low in Lagos. The informal sector has largely filled this void, but with resulting social costs that the population as a whole must internalize. Lagosians are keenly aware of the incredible inefficiencies with these services, particularly those relating to transport. Traffic jams are omnipresent in Lagos – so much so that they have become part of the city’s identity.

General public sentiment115 resoundingly supports the expedient build-out of much-needed transportation infrastructure projects. Traveling around Lagos is dangerous and stressful and these proposed improvements displaying images of clean bus terminals with free Wi- Fi served by stagecoaches with air-conditioning display a stark contrast to the loud, exhaust-billowing, danfos to which Lagosians are accustomed. Past surveys and research studies indicate that the city’s first BRT line has resulted in positive changes along the corridor involving safer, cheaper, more reliable, more comfortable, and less polluting

115 As expressed through news reports and my field research experience, which is admittedly biased (see Afterword) given my positionality as a foreign researcher, the connections I was able to establish, and my inability to speak local Yoruba or Pidgin dialects. 134 service compared to the informal alternatives. While system build-out is well behind the indicated schedules referenced in planning documents, progress is being made presently with ongoing/recently completed construction on the airport road, the Oshodi- Oworonshoki Expressway, and a variety of transit hub terminals (e.g., Ikeja, Oshodi, Oyingbo, Yaba, to name a few).

While the creation of LAMATA and the construction of the first BRT line may be the first steps towards an objectively, quantifiably better transportation system in Lagos, it is still important to consider the unique sense of place that Lagosians have created here and the inextricable values of the informal system that may be overlooked by both technocrats and exhausted citizenry who just want to see something new. Meaningful, transparent public engagement is of utmost importance in the implementation and build-out of this new formalized transit system. This infers a departure from the traditional, parochial processes of holding town halls to simply inform the public and select stakeholders about what will be happening. Incorporating qualitative feedback in addition to the quantitative and technocratic evidence used to define current plans may require a paradigm shift for agency staff. Support for these plans will certainly plummet if once established, people have no means of accessing the new bus system being touted as the megacity’s panacea solution to urban congestion. As such, it is important to recognize the informal system’s strengths and weaknesses in order to collaboratively produce a successful and contextually sensitive transportation system that works for everyone.

135 Chapter 8: Key Takeaways

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ACADEMIC LITERATURE

The concept of informality, in the context of economies and public goods/services provision is well studied in both theoretical and quantitative literature focused on the

Global South. Further, a good breadth of literature exists specifically pertaining to informal or quasi-formal transit systems in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. With the exception of a handful of researchers (e.g. Dr. Pablo Salazar Ferro) most of past planning-related research approaches transit and infrastructure research from a point of view that automatically champions modernist, Western planning ideals of organization and governance. While I’ve been trained in my educational curriculum (in both planning and engineering) to focus on solving urban problems in this manner, I specifically wanted to undertake this research project in Nigeria to learn about differences and alternative methods of planning in the informal or insurgent contexts in the Global South. World Bank and other development agencies have fielded much criticism for their unwavering stance on modernist planning ideals, but simply applying these ideals without fully understanding the complexities of the local context is both condescendingly patriarchal in nature and quantitatively unsuccessful (Cavalcanti, 2007). Still, objectively speaking, these plans are a huge part of this report and will certainly have massive implications for the future of

Lagos’ transport system if implemented. As a part of my study, I endeavor to learn about and analyze the numerous modern planning movements in motion; however, I do so from the perspective more aligned with a post-colonialist than a modernist. The only example of research I’ve found approaching Lagos’ transportation from a different epistemology and theoretical framework comes from the development studies literature. Agbiboa’s (2016) undercover ethnography of informal transit workers in Lagos

136 focused on sociological constructions embedded into the informal transit system and the consequent effects on its workers. Though I cannot claim to have achieved the same magnitude of Agbiboa’s impressive immersive study, my thesis builds upon this framework to document original content at an opportune time in Lagos’ history. My thesis research focuses specifically on the interplay and interaction between informal and formal transit services in Lagos at a juncture in time when modernist planning ideals are predominantly driving the conversation with respect to the future of the informal transit sector. While similar research has been conducted elsewhere on the continent during these transitions (e.g. Ghana, Senegal, Kenya, and South Africa), I have not been able to locate any research of this nature focusing on Lagos or Nigeria. Local published research that has been conducted in Lagos focuses mostly on statistical analyses of surveys administered along the BRT line, while disregarding or discounting the role of informal transit services. As such, my thesis report intends to fill this gap. I intend to utilize work product from this report to share back with all the agencies and individuals whom I met with in Nigeria. I also plan to generate peer-reviewed journal articles, conference papers, and presentations from this content to be shared with a larger audience of transportation and city/regional planners.

ACADEMIC STANCE ON TRANSIT FORMALIZATION IN LAGOS

While the formation of LAMATA and subsequent plans to modernize the transport infrastructure and transit systems of Lagos may be the first steps towards an objectively, quantifiably better transportation system in Lagos, it is still important to consider the unique sense of place that Lagosians have created here. Without going so far as romanticizing the human condition of informality as an “aesthetic of chaos” (Rem Koolhaas qtd. in Agbiboa, 2016), it is important to recognize the informal systems in

137 operation as an organically concocted means of serving a public need where the government has consistently failed to do so. These locally-produced elements of entrepreneurship must be recognized and incorporated into future iterations of planning and design in order to create a successful and contextually sensitive urban environment that works for everyone, not just a little bit better for those who already have means.

CONCLUDING RECOMMENDATIONS: APPLYING LESSONS LEARNED TO PRACTICE IN LAGOS

The answer to complicated planning issues cannot be found in a textbook written by a consortium of white males or even from the all-to-often hailed works of Jane Jacobs. These examples are simply perspectives. Every person in our society has a different background, whether that be made up of race, gender, sexual orientation, or any other combination of lived experiences. In order to best design and plan for cities of the future, we need to think of knowledge holistically, including diverse perspectives and ideas of transformation, change, and preservation. My critical, post-colonialist dive into the Nigerian transportation system elucidated some major issues manifest in the current modes of transportation planning that can be applied to numerous contexts in the greater Global South. Neoliberal-inspired transit improvement plans and the modernist planning ideals embedded in both traditional

Western- and Sino-centric market-based rationalities and the newer conception of smart cities are trending topics across the gamut of rapidly urbanizing nation states across the Global South. While these movements do certainly confer benefits, they cannot occur in a vacuum and inevitably involve the engagement of a complex network of actors in both informal and formal sectors to be successful. Overall, I hope that this research displays the

(sometimes hidden) value of informal transit systems and the importance of incorporating

138 the situated knowledges within these systems into the build out of formal transportation networks.

139 Afterword: Reflections

REFLECTIONS ON ROLE AS A FOREIGN RESEARCHER

As a foreign oyibo116 researcher, specifically a white male coming from a reputable research institution in the United States, I enjoyed an extremely high level of privilege during my thesis field work. Professors at local universities, government officials, and members of the transportation business community were keen to meet with me and provide me with anything that I needed during my stay.

Prior to my visit, when applying for a visa to conduct research in Nigeria (quite a complicated process that involved driving to Houston on three separate occasions), Dr. M.O. Olawole provided a letter of support and copies of his passport to the Nigerian

Embassy, having only previously corresponded with me via email. His support in this regard as well as feedback on my original research proposal were incredibly valuable resources that I am very grateful for. Still, I recognize this is perhaps a fixture of the privileges that I enjoy coming from the University of Texas. Dr. Wale Alade at the University of Lagos, Akoka even went so far as to help me secure living accommodations on campus, treat me to his favorite local food dishes, and assigned two of his top undergraduate students to aid me with carrying out my research. Yemi and Rotimi, Dr. Alade’s students, along with Ms. Tina Amaka, a master’s student in geography at UNILAG, made themselves available to take me on interactive transit field trips all across the city while helping me conduct interviews. Furthermore, Dr. Alade was able to connect me with officials from the Lagos State Ministry of Transport, the NURTW, and the engineering firm constructing the Oyingbo Transit Transfer Hub. He also invited

116 Oyinbo or oyibo refers to a white person or a foreigner in the local Yoruba dialect. It is not a derogatory term, but simply a means to describe a non-African stranger or as someone exhibiting European or Western characteristic dress, skin color or mannerisms (Falola & Genova, 2005). During my month in Nigeria, I became quite accustomed to a chorus of people yelling “oyibo! oyibo!” wherever I went. 140 me to attend his class’ field trip to the Eko Atlantic Smart City development and the Africa Smart Cities Conference being hosted by UNILAG during my stay on campus. Officials at government organizations (LAMATA and LAGBUS) also welcomed me with red-carpet treatment and unexpected access to information and resources. LAMATA staff devoted two full days and multiple staff-members to help me achieve my interviews and tour numerous facilities all over Lagos including the National Theater Blue Line Station, Mile 12 bus yard and ITS center, BRT line between LAMATA headquarters and Ikorodu, and the newly constructed Ikeja Transit Terminal.

Upon coincidence, staff at the transportation start-up Roadpreppers, Ladi and Samuel, happened to be good friends with the individual whose home I was staying in during my first few weeks in Lagos. As my meeting with them was during my first few days in Lagos, they took the time to thoroughly explain the informal transit system and how their business intends to help those who use it. They devoted half of their work day to speaking with me. Although their company was going through a transition (potentially to be acquired by a larger company) during my time and their attorney recommended them to not provide me with their data for my research, they were otherwise very helpful, friendly, and accommodating.

In a casual conversation with Ladi following the interview, he asked me about my experience thus far. Aside from discussing the palpable energy of Lagos, the delicious food, and the welcoming nature of my hosts, part of my response involved a story of walking around the University of Lagos Akoka campus. I mentioned that students would stare, point, and laugh at me as I traversed campus by myself. I told him that I felt rather uncomfortable and out of place to which he responded: “well, that is how I felt the entire

141 time I was at Stanford, so in some respect, it is good you are experiencing that now”117. I immediately felt foolish for not recognizing this parallel ahead of telling this story, but this forced me to recognize my privilege and help me better understand my positionality as a researcher in the context of this study. Overall, I am very grateful for all of the help and support that I received from my hosts in Nigeria. My research could not have been completed without these connections or access.

REFLECTIONS ON RESEARCH PROCESS & METHODS

Given both the telecommunication118 and trust119 gaps present before my trip to Africa, I was unsure as to the number of interviews that I’d be able to successfully arrange.

I also had concerns about whether interviewees would be truly forthcoming to a foreign researcher. I placed an incredible amount of faith in connections which I’d established through email and LinkedIn with official organizations (LAMATA and LAGBUS) and practicing academic professors, which could have certainly backfired if they suddenly failed to respond to meeting inquiries once I’d arrived in Nigeria. I maintain that especially in this context, face-to-face meetings and interviews remained the only possible way to acquire the data which I amassed for this research project. Living in Lagos and experiencing its transportation system first-hand day after day provided the most tangible outcome to guide my research. With these experiences, I had the ability to demonstrate a level of knowledge and understanding uncharacteristic of a

117 Informal conversation with Mr. Ladi Ojora, Roadpreppers Technologies, Ltd. on July 17, 2018. 118 In my initial interviews with LAMATA officials and local professors via skype, it was incredibly difficult to communicate due to lag time in the network connection and linguistic speaking differences. 119 According to an 2013 survey, only 15% of Nigerians believe that most other Nigerians can be trusted (Afrobarometer, 2013). Nigerians have notoriously perfected the art of these types of scams (see Simone, 2004). As such, it would make sense for people to be wary of atypical requests from a person claiming to be an American researcher over electronic media. 142 typical foreigner visiting Lagos. This, paired with knowledge I’d established from reading academic research and local news articles about transit in sub-Saharan Africa for the several months leading up to my visit, I would argue, prompted interviewees to dive deeper into topical material rather than simply explaining the (already complicated) surface level of transport functionality in the megacity.

Although my interview subjects varied widely in several respects – agency, positionality, formality vs. informality, management vs. employee, etc. – a fuller picture could have been developed by completing more interviews, particularly with actors in the informal system. Unfortunately, due to logistical constraints (language barrier and personal safety concerns) I was only able to establish secure contact with one representative of the informal sector: a secretariat of an NURTW branch. Though I rode in numerous danfo vehicles during my fieldwork, I was unable to interview any danfo drivers or conductors. While Dr. Agbiboa’s (2016) undercover ethnography about informal transit workers helps to fill this gap in my research, I wish I had been able to plan or develop some way to engage danfo drivers and conductors to parallel the semi-structured interview methodology that I used to engage all other actors. Furthermore, my ability to engage the general public through informal conversations was similarly constrained. Those who I was able to engage generally fell into a middle-class or upper-class category (e.g. students at one of the nation’s best universities, ride-hailing drivers, and other fluent English-speakers). Consequently, my research does not reflect the direct opinions or thoughts of the lowest social classes in Nigeria – arguably those who would be most adversely affected by the transit system’s formalization. To truly carry out a fully “triangulated” set of knowledges to analyze my research questions would have involved engaging a more diverse host of respondents (Bowen, 2009; Torrance, 2012).

143 LIMITATIONS OF RESEARCH AND POTENTIAL FUTURE STUDIES

As with any academic study, funding, time, and logistics constraints disabled me from fully exploring every interest in my original research scoping document. Still, the relationships I developed and the methodologies that I used yielded a substantial body of knowledge that exceeded my expectations of what data I would be able to glean during my field research. While my positionality as an oyibo researcher came with advantages, it also prevented me from examining the transportation landscape and its complexities from an undetected and unobscured point of view. For safety reasons, I never traveled anywhere by myself using public transport. The students who accompanied me provided me with both navigation assistance (which within the incredibly complex informal system I would have struggled to navigate myself) while also providing incredibly informative background information about each service and what was happening in real time – the human interactions, the vehicle routing, etc. While these “guided tours” of informal transit proved incredibly helpful and informative to my research, they perhaps do not reflect the true quotidian experiences of Lagosians navigating the informal transit system. I had no means of blending in to my surrounds and as such simply my presence may have skewed or altered the human performance and interactions, which I was able to observe and experience during my field work. Furthermore, my lack of fluency in Yoruba or Pidgin dialects prevented me from conversing with or asking substantial questions of both the transit workers and fellow passengers. Even if I had these abilities, the ceaseless movement of people in Lagos does not lend itself to asking someone for a few moments of their time to talk about their experiences on the bus. As such, my positionality and inability to communicate with key informants proved to be a limitation of this research project. With more time and funding, I would have paid local undergraduate students fluent in these local 144 dialects to conduct these interactions/interviews and report back to me. Instead, I’ve relied on each of their 22+ years of lived experience using the informal transit system paired with local news articles and published research to establish this perspective in my research. My original research proposal also included a quantitative GIS-based accessibility analysis component similar to a past research projects I’ve completed using publicly available data sources in Nairobi, Kenya (similar to K. B. Campbell, Rising, Klopp, & Mbilo, 2019). Kenya’s data cache has been amassed and shared publicly by past (one-time) research efforts (e.g. Williams, White, Waiganjo, Orwa, & Klopp, 2015). These same projects have generally not taken place in Nigeria. The same level of data accessibility does not exist there. While academic contacts and government officials were generally forthcoming with data requests, I was unable to gather sufficient before/after system configuration data in order to conduct any accessibility analyses. Furthermore, even if I had been able to collect these data, I was unable to locate any source for population data at any geography smaller than the entire state, as such these data would have needed to be developed through alternative methods like remote sensing of aerial imagery. Since one of my research interests includes leveraging open data to help bolster understanding of infrastructure and planning decisions and their impacts, I am interested in eventually expanding this research project to include some sort of quantitative GIS analysis.

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