> ASEF/Alliance The future of rural income and production in Land allocation for the rice farm Economic growth in China’s agricultural sector lags behind growth in industry and services, creating an ever widening rural-urban income gap. Yet growth beyond the farm offers new opportunities for farmers in China’s more advanced provinces: markets for new crops and increasing farm size. At present, the dual government objectives of increasing rural incomes and increasing rice production are clearly in conflict. Farmers can obtain incomes comparable to non-farm wages only when they stop rice cultivation and switch to more profitable crops. Otherwise, mechanization is necessary to allow large enough increases in farm size to raise household income and maintain national rice production levels. Land allocation for the mixed farm Marrit van den Berg, Huib Hengsdijk, increasing farm income and rice pro- main labour peak occurs during the har- Wang Guanghuo, Joost Wolf, duction, it also assesses the effects of the vest, which unfortunately cannot be Martin van Ittersum, Reimund Roetter expansion of land holdings, crop diver- mechanized in the short or medium Figure 1 sification, and technology. The socio- term since there is no machinery that Simulation of lobalization and market integra- economic, institutional and natural can harvest vegetables on such a small increasing farm Gtion have contributed to unprece- environments determine the direction plot without damaging the crop. For rice size from 0 to 12 dented economic growth in many parts and pace of change for farm households production, the main peak occurs dur- has with steps of of East and , especially in and, hence, overall agricultural devel- ing transplanting. Secondary peaks for 0.6 ha for the two Eastern China. Macro-economic devel- opment. To account for these diverse all crops occur during land preparation reference farms opments have resulted in strong growth influences on land use, the farm house- and for rice an additional peak occurs allowing for of the industry and service sectors, pro- hold model integrates knowledge from during the harvest. We introduce mech- mechanization viding employment opportunities at economics, soil science and crop anized land preparation and harvesting wage rates several times higher than science. and direct seeding for rice production, compared even to the vegetable farm. text, we analyse the effects of potential those for agricultural labour. Currently, and mechanized land preparation for In summary, the model accurately sim- increases in farm size given the farmer’s almost 85 percent of rural households Our case-study area is Pujiang county in vegetable production. ulates the shift from pure vegetable pro- choice to grow rice only or a combina- in China have at least one family mem- province. The province has a duction to a combination of vegetable tion of rice and vegetables. The method- ber working in the non-agricultural sec- well-developed non-agricultural econo- The farm household when and rice production when farm size ology employed allows exploration of the tor. Yet still employs rough- my and is home to China’s most active farm size increases increases. The reason behind this shift impacts of expected future develop- ly half the labour force and rural land rental market. Fertile soils and We first used the model solely for rice is limited labour availability during peak ments on agricultural production and incomes are just 30 percent of the urban abundant water make Zhejiang and the production (Table 1) and according to the periods. rural livelihoods. average. rest of China’s greater River average resource endowments of rice- Our results show that at the present China’s spectacular urban growth offers Delta one of the world’s most productive farmers in the survey sample: 0.3 Mechanization scenario scale of farming, the dual government new opportunities for farmers. Rural- rice growing regions. In 2002, we car- hectares (ha) of land and 2.5 workers. When we allow mechanization and objectives of increasing rural incomes urban migration exerts pressure on ried out an extensive survey among 107 The household grows double rice (with direct seeding, the farm size that a sin- and increasing rice production are clear- farms to expand in size, as migrating farm households, most of which were hybrid seed for both rice crops). Total gle household can manage becomes as ly conflicting. At the present land to farmers rent their land to those who stay small rice farms, vegetable farms and rice production for the model household large as 12 ha (Figure 1). Even with mech- labour ratio, rice production renders a behind. This could require changes in somewhat larger rice-vegetable farms. is 3.4 t (mega grams) and income is anization, labour constraints limit veg- per capita income that is less than a the management and performance of 2,626 Yuan. Whereas the simulated etable cultivation to a maximum of quarter of the non-farm wage. Vegetable farming systems and improve the wel- We developed a stylized model that cov- income is close to the survey average for almost 0.5 ha. When farm size increas- production, however, obtains five times fare of the remaining farmers. Farms ers the core characteristics of these rice-cultivating households, rice pro- es, land area for vegetables decreases the rice income and thus can more than have been managed mainly by using households and maximizes income duction is significantly higher. The slowly to free up labour for increasing- compete with the non-farm sector. Spe- manual labour and animal traction, but from crop production, subject to the model household grows double rice ly labour-intensive rice cultivation, until cialized training and development of current developments might facilitate, availability of land, family labour and only. Survey households, on the other virtually all 12 ha is used for directly product markets can help farmers cur- or even require, an increase in mecha- capital, agricultural technology and mar- hand, grow single rice as well, which has seeded, mechanized single rice. A sim- rently growing rice to switch to these nization. At the same time, increased ket prices. The model can accommodate a somewhat lower income but requires ilar pattern can be observed for a rice more profitable crops. urban income creates markets for more five different crop activities. We include less labour and less strict timing - a fac- farmer who starts with non-mechanized If, as expected, farm size increases in the expensive products, such as vegetables, three prevailing rice systems: one annu- tor not accounted for by the model. double rice cultivation and beyond one near future, rising rural incomes and fruits and meat. Diversification of agri- al harvest of rice using hybrid seed rice; Labour requirements are low and no hectare shifts to less labour-intensive rice production might go hand in hand. culture from rice to these high-value two rice harvests a year, the first an hired labour is needed. rice crops until he ends up with 12 ha of Even with mechanization, farmers can products is considered an important inbred rice variety and the second hybrid single rice of which most is mechanized only manage relatively small plots of means to increase farmers’ income and seed; two rice harvests a year with hybrid Next, we allow for vegetable as well as and directly seeded. Hence, from two or vegetables. Our results indicate that thereby prevent further widening of the seed rice. All rice crops are transplant- rice cultivation. We first adapt resource three hectares onwards, both farms household labour and the limited rural-urban income gap. However, diver- ed, except early rice with non-hybrid endowments to reflect the averages for become very similar. The main differ- amount of available hired labour is just sification might jeopardize national rice seeds. In addition to rice, we include two the vegetable farms. The resulting ence is that up to 12 ha, the mixed farm enough to specialize in vegetable pro- supply, which remains a concern of the frequently observed triple vegetable sys- model farmer grows a rotation of celery, maintains a small vegetable plot, which duction at the current land to labour government. tems: celery-greens-radish and celery- leafy vegetables and garden radish on leads to somewhat lower per hectare rice ratio. Simulations show that when farm hot pepper-radish. his entire 0.2 ha. While his farm is only production but significantly higher size increases, labour constraints dur- Calibrating the farm Initially, we assume that all operations two-thirds the size of the model rice income. Mechanization is already pre- ing vegetable harvests force households household are performed manually, as was com- farmer, his capital requirements are ferred for vegetable production at a farm to grow rice on the additional land. The study uses a farm household model mon practice among farmers surveyed. about triple and his labour requirements size of 0.6 ha, but rice cultivation is Mechanization will help farmers to cul- to examine the potential of urbanization Later, we introduce mechanization in more than double. This results in an mechanized only slowly beyond 1.8 ha tivate larger land areas and thus gener- to spur the development of rice-based order to meet peak labour demands, a income of more than 16,000 Yuan, sig- on the rice farm and 2.4 ha on the mixed ate more income, but it does not great- farming systems. Taking into account practice that is becoming increasingly nificantly higher than the surprisingly farm. ly increase land area for vegetables, as the dual government objective of popular. For vegetable production, the low income our survey found for pure the main labour peak of the vegetable vegetable farmers. Mechanization: good for rice, harvest cannot be mechanized. < Table 1 When we triple farm size to 0.6 ha, the irrelevant to vegetables Simulation results at average farm and family size for the three major farm types. survey average for rice-vegetable farms, The spectacular growth of China’s non- Marrit van den Berg, Wageningen Universi- the cropping pattern changes. Vegetable farm economy offers new opportunities ty and Research Centre; Huib Hengsdijk, Rice farm Vegetable farm Mixed farm labour requirements in peak periods for farmers in China’s more advanced Wageningen University and Research Centre; Data are simply too high to allow vegetable provinces. Increased income in the Wang Guanghu, Zhejiang University; Joost Crops allowed only rice all crops all crops cultivation on more than 0.39 ha. On urban sector creates markets for new Wolf, Wageningen University and Research Farm size (ha) 0.3 0.2 0.6 the remaining 0.21 ha, the farmer products, and migrating farmers rent Centre; Martin van Ittersum, Wageningen Family labour (full-time labourers) 2.5 2.6 2.5 grows rice. This general pattern coin- their land to those staying behind. Using University and Research Centre; Reimund cides with the survey averages. More- a simulation model covering important Roetter, Wageningen University and Results (annual basis) over, income from vegetable production characteristics of the farmer and his con- Research Centre Income (Yuan) 2,626 16,139 31,339 is about the same for the model house- Vegetable income (Yuan) 0 16,139 29,531 hold and the average survey household. This article is a short version of a full paper presented at the First Asia-Europe Workshop on Labour (days) 87 194 441 There is, however, an expected differ- Sustainable Resource Management and Policy Options for Rice Ecosystems (SUMAPOL 2005) Working capital (Yuan) 554 1,622 3,190 ence in rice cultivation. All of the sur- held from 11 to 14 May 2005 in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China. The full paper is considered for Rice production (kg) 3,390 0 2,334 vey’s mixed farms grow single rice, publication in an Agricultural Systems special issue on technology and policy options for rice Rice area (ha) 0.30 0.00 0.21 whereas the model farmer grows dou- ecosystems in a rapidly changing global environment. Vegetable area (ha) 0.00 0.20 0.39 ble rice. Capital requirements are high

34 IIAS Newsletter | #38 | September 2005