English — Supply and demand Part three Troisième partie Tercera parte 113 ) for the ) for while the data on the demand the demand while on the data 2 Papaver somniferum Papaver Supply of opiate raw materials raw materials of opiate Supply Table 1 provides information on the area cultivated cultivated the area on information 1 provides Table in rich poppy opium with area cultivated total The Finally, the trends in global consumption of all opiates all opiates of globalin consumption the trends Finally, Those data reflect industrially to necessary, as been adjusted, have
2 recoverable alkaloid content in the raw materials in question. in materials thein raw alkaloid content recoverable extraction of alkaloids in the main producer countries; data data countries; producer in the alkaloids main extraction of codeine are and thebaine varieties in morphine, rich on all raw types of For applicable. where separately, listed each for given is cultivation of area the estimated material, the area and sown the area on Data available. is that year actually which such for the years for given harvested are in 2018 area cultivated total The available. are data morphine in rich poppy opium for significantly increased thebaine. in rich poppy opium for slightly declined and to fall the in demand attributed be can decline slight The factors, of combination a to owing materials raw opiate for of States in the crisis United the opioid including America. 5. ( poppy opium with Morphine 6. in 2018 decreased 96,135 ha, to morphine with compared 120,658 in 2018 sown the area in 2017. Similarly, ha decreased 71,352 ha, to 76,043 ha from in 2017. However, the actual area 60,418 harvested to in 2018 increased ha, 44,024 with compared 2018, the actual in 2017. In ha area in morphine rich poppy harvested opium with 21,392 ha), or 90 per cent, (by France in Turkey increased and 2020, the data on production are based on advance based advance on are production on the2020, data and the from received estimates and information statistical countries, producing main for the poppy Cultivation of opium extraction of alkaloids for opiate raw materials and the opiates derived from them from derived the opiates and materials raw opiate for taking into trends, based past on projections INCB are Governments. furnished by estimates relevant account 4. period the 20-year 1999–2018 over opioids synthetic and perspective a historical provides analysis This analysed. are derived which are opiates, of importance the relative on opioids. of thein global consumption poppy, opium from Introduction Introduction
1 The International Narcotics Control Board (INCB), in (INCB), Board Control Narcotics International The The present analysis complements the comments on comments the complements analysis present The The analysis presented below presented analysis The by prepared has been The analysis excludes data on China and the Democratic People’s People’s and the Democratic on China data excludes analysis The
1 - domes for solely materials raw opiate which produce Korea, of Republic was that seized opium of the utilization on data also excludes ticIt use. the demand on and Iran of Republic use in the Islamic licit for released opium. such from derived opiates for 1. Single it under the to assigned of the functions fulfilment the by amended as 1961 Drugs of Narcotic on Convention the Economic of resolutions the relevant and 1972 Protocol Narcotic Social on and the Commission Council and of supply the affecting issues examines Drugs, regularly and requirements licit for opiates for thedemand and balance between that standing a ensure to endeavours an section contains present The demand. and supply provided based the data on situation the current of analysis Governments. by SUPPLY OF OPIATE RAW MATERIALS AND DEMAND FOR OPIATES FOR OPIATES FOR AND DEMAND MATERIALS RAW OPIATE OF SUPPLY PURPOSES AND SCIENTIFIC MEDICAL the reported statistics for individual opiate raw materials materials raw opiate individual for statistics the reported - con and straw poppy (opium, poppy opium from obtained from obtained the opiates for and straw) poppy of centrate for those to turn comments to invited them. Readersare developments long-term on information in-depth more (see part above). two substances the individual concerning for years four on last the is analysis focusof the main The 2019 (2015–2018). For available are data which statistical 3. 2. opiates on and materials raw opiate on the data examining the analysis, In materials. those raw from manufactured derived the opiates and rich in morphine materials raw the methodology with accordance in them are, from - materi raw from separately considered INCB, by adopted them. from derived the opiates and alsthebaine in rich reported in codeine is rich poppy opium of The cultivation thein global but 1, table in countries two for separately 2, in table included is it demand and supply of calculation the pending in morphine, rich poppy opium with together codeine of the calculation for a system of development mea- is materials raw opiate of Global supply equivalency. Global production. and stocks of the levels by sured the basis assessed is on materials raw opiate for demand the for materials raw opiate of global on utilization data of - con Data (see 23 below). para. all opiates of manufacture global use for (including global cerning consumption as the 1961 Convention in Schedule III of preparations - Utiliza also included. are opiates of stocks and amended) non- of the manufacture for opioids controlled of tion thein analysis. included drugs not is controlled Table 1. Area cultivated with opium poppy rich in morphine, opium poppy rich in thebaine and opium poppy rich in codeine, 2014–2020 (Estimated area, as confirmed by the International Narcotics Control Board, area sown and area harvested, in hectares)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019a 2020b Australia Opium poppy rich in morphine Estimated area 15 080 11 410 8 160 3 469 3 904 3 420 Area sown 8 509 8 280 4 027 3 534 3 280 . . Actual area harvested 6 947 7 293 3 445 3 205 3 100 . . Opium poppy rich in thebaine Estimated area 9 700 7 375 4 650 7 577 4 760 4 787 Area sown 9 867 6 921 4 629 6 673 4 942c . . Actual area harvested 9 104 6 073 4 215 6 567 4 822c . . Opium poppy rich in codeine Estimated area 5 220 662 1 210 2 849 7 630 4 226 Area sown 5 652 712 1 022 2 936 4 305 . . Actual area harvested 4 447 687 960 2 683 4 255 . . Opium poppy rich in morphine, thebaine and codeine Total estimated area 30 000 19 447 14 020 13 895 16 294 12 433 Total area sown 24 028 15 913 9 678 13 143 12 527 . . Total actual area harvested 20 498 14 053 8 620 12 455 12 177 . . France Opium poppy rich in morphine Estimated area 8 700 5 895 5 490 5 550 7 600 8 750 Area sown 8 827 7 140 5 014 6 030 7 935 . . Actual area harvested 8 450 6 780 4 893 5 628 7 486 . . Opium poppy rich in thebaine Estimated area — 945 2 230 2 950 — — Area sown — 1 837 3 378 752 60 . . Actual area harvested — 1 820 3 161 731 55 . . Opium poppy rich in codeine Estimated area 3 000 3 500 — — — — Area sown 2 994 1 113 — ...... Actual area harvested 2 827 875 — ...... Opium poppy rich in morphine, thebaine and codeine Total estimated area 11 700 10 340 7 720 8 500 7 600 8 750 Total area sown 11 821 10 090 8 392 6 783 7 995 . . Total actual area harvested 11 277 9 475 8 054 6 359 7 541 . . Hungary Opium poppy rich in morphine Estimated area 11 000 7 300 13 800 6 800 20 100 12 010 Area sown 6 085 5 500 2 451 2 482 3 780 . . Actual area harvested 5 302 3 520 2 003 514 3 110 . . Opium poppy rich in thebaine Estimated area 2 500 2 500 400 220 . . . . Area sown 24 20 20 — . . . . Actual area harvested 24 20 20 — . . . .
114 English — Supply and demand Part three Troisième partie Tercera parte 115 b
......
...... 62 . . . . 863 9 441 9 503 4 500 12 010 70 000 2020 c c a
62 62 .) indicate that data are 863 863
2 423 2 001 8 578 8 578 1 238 9 503 9 503 5 662 3 780 6 843 6 107 3 110 6 500 20 100 64 423 70 000 56 511 2019
. .
514 2 457 2 980 1 990 1 990 1 238 1 238 5 182 2 457 5 685 5 685 8 162 2 482 5 740 4 710 7 020 5 134 52 329 70 000 45 123 2018
. . 2017 2 423 4 796 2 001 2 001 1 231 1 231 9 108 2 423 5 655 5 655 2 471 2 023 9 704 8 721 13 904 14 200 10 900 53 616 73 200 23 731
......
The total estimated area to be cultivated with opium opium with to be area cultivated estimated total The 557 3 811 5 980 5 694 5 694 3 811 9 505 9 505 5 520 3 540 6 639 9 800 6 900 10 020 16 000 52 101 70 000 29 921 increase can be attributed to an expected an of to increase be can attributed increase except the harvested countries producing in all major area opium with cultivation under 2020, the area In Australia. expected about is decrease by to rich in morphine poppy 2019. for the figure with compared per8 cent Thebaine 8. showed countries producing major in thebaine in rich poppy 2016
......
4 518 4 551 2 867 9 790 2 867 4 518 7 385 7 385 5 422 6 109 5 326 6 172 14 341 13 500 16 000 66 912 70 000 61 591 ) 1. (continued Table 2015
d harvested harvested harvested harvested harvested harvested harvested According to data-based projections for 2019, the total 2019, the total for data-based projections to According Estimate referring to the maximum area available for cultivation. Figures for 2020 are based on estimates submitted by Governments to the Board. Figures for area sown and actual area harvested in 2019 are based on advance data submitted by Governments to the International Narcotics Board. Control Area cultivated with opium poppy rich in thebaine includes area cultivated with opium poppy rich in oripavine. Area sown Estimated area Actual area Area sown Estimated area Actual area Total actual area actual Total Total area sown area Total Total estimated area estimated Total Actual area Total estimated area estimated Total Area sown Total actual area actual Total Estimated area Total estimated area estimated Total sown area Total area actual Total area estimated Total sown area Total Total actual area actual Total Total area sown area Total a b c d
Opium poppy rich in thebaine rich poppy Opium
Turkey in morphine rich poppy Opium
Opium poppy rich in morphine, thebaine and codeine and thebaine in morphine, rich poppy Opium in codeine rich poppy Opium
Spain in morphine rich poppy Opium Opium poppy rich in morphine and thebaine and in morphine rich poppy Opium India in morphine rich poppy Opium
: A field shaded in red signifies that the corresponding total estimated area for opium poppy rich in morphine, thebaine and codeine has been exceeded. Note: A field shaded in red signifies that the corresponding total estimated area for opium poppy rich that the amount is nil; and two dots (. Figures not based on official reports (form B and form C) are in italics. A dash (—) indicates not available. area to be harvested for opium poppy rich in morphine in in morphine rich be harvested to area poppy opium for expected is by increase to countries producing major 37 That 2018. for the figure with compared per cent, 7. (by 15 per cent, or 735 or 15 per cent, (by or 1 per cent, (by Spain and ha) 7 or 74 per cent, (by decreased in Hungary and ha) 4,011 ha) or 1,489 ha), 46 per Australia cent, (by and India 240 or 7 per cent, (by opium- the only is India ha). analysis. thein present country included producing a declining trend during the period 2015–2017. In 2018, to be 1,440 and 846 ha, respectively. According to projections, however, the total estimated area to be cultivated increased in Spain the area under cultivation with opium poppy rich to 13,727 ha, compared with 12,076 ha in 2017. In 2018, the in oripavine is expected to be only 62 ha in 2020. area sown and the actual area harvested both decreased, by 5 per cent and by 1 per cent, respectively, compared with 2017. The actual harvested area of opium poppy rich in the- Noscapine baine decreased by 77.0 per cent in France but increased by 56.0 per cent in Australia and 1.4 per cent in Spain. Hungary 12. Even though noscapine is not under international stopped cultivating this variety of opium poppy in 2018. control, a significant amount of morphine can be extracted from opium poppy rich in noscapine. Cultivation of 9. The total area of opium poppy rich in thebaine esti- noscapine-rich opium poppy plants for the purpose of opi- mated to be harvested in 2019 is expected to decrease ate production was reported by France in 2018. France har- compared with the figure for the previous year based on vested 2,053 ha of noscapine-rich opium poppy in 2018 advanced data submitted by major producing countries. and produced noscapine-rich poppy straw with a gross The area harvested is expected to decrease by 97 per cent weight of 1,173 tons. According to advance data for 2019, in Spain, 92 per cent in France and 27 per cent in Australia. Australia and France are expected to harvest 678 and In general, the total area of opium poppy rich in thebaine 1,974 ha, respectively, of noscapine-rich opium poppy and to be harvested in 2019 will decrease by 49 per cent com- produce noscapine-rich poppy straw with a gross weight pared with the total for 2018. The estimated area cultivated of 1,403 tons. France estimated that it will cultivate 2,250 ha with opium poppy rich in thebaine is expected to decrease with opium poppy rich in noscapine in 2020. by 33 per cent in 2020 compared with the previous year. Australia and Spain are the only countries planning to cultivate thebaine-rich opium poppy plants in 2020. Production of opiate raw materials
13. Tables 2 and 3 provide an overview of global produc- Codeine tion of and demand for morphine-rich and thebaine-rich opiate raw materials, respectively, for the period 2015–2020. 10. The total actual area of opium poppy rich in As in previous years, the actual production of opiate raw codeine harvested in 2018 increased by 58 per cent. Aus- materials in 2019 and 2020 may differ considerably from tralia and Spain were the only countries that produced this the estimates, depending on weather and other factors. variety of opium poppy in 2018. France, which had been one of the main producers of opium poppy rich in codeine, discontinued cultivating this variety of opium poppy in Morphine 2017, the year in which Spain started to cultivate it. The area cultivated with opium poppy rich in codeine increased 14. Global production of morphine-rich opiate raw mate- substantially, from 960 ha in 2017 to 2,683 ha in 2018, in rials in the main producing countries increased to 304 Australia and declined slightly, from 2,001 ha in 2017 to tons4 in morphine equivalent in 2018, from 282 tons in 1,990 ha in 2018, in Spain. In 2019, Australia is expected 2017 (see table 2). Turkey became the largest producer in to continue to increase considerably the area harvested for 2018 (102 tons); it was followed by Australia (88 tons), this variety of opium poppy, to 4,255 ha (compared with France (42 tons), Spain (37 tons) and India (25 tons). In 2,683 ha in 2018); and in Spain the area harvested is 2018, production of morphine-rich opiate raw materials expected to decrease by half. According to data-based pro- declined significantly in India (by 48 per cent), France jections, in Australia the estimated area under cultivation (33 per cent) and Hungary (33 per cent) and increased with codeine-rich opium poppy is expected to decline sig- noticeably in Turkey (by 85 per cent), Spain (61 per cent) nificantly, from 7,630 ha in 2019 to 4,226 in 2020. In Spain, and Australia (31 per cent). Australia and Turkey accounted the estimated area under cultivation with opium poppy for 63 per cent of global production in 2018. rich in codeine is expected to decrease by more than one half in 2020 compared with 2019. 15. Global production of opiate raw materials rich in mor- phine is expected to rise in 2019, to about 594 tons in mor- phine equivalent. However, actual production has a history Oripavine of being less than estimated. Production of poppy straw rich in morphine is expected to amount to 561 tons (accounting 11. Australia and Spain have reported in 2019 the estimated area under cultivation with opium poppy rich in oripavine3 4 The analysis is based predominantly on raw materials obtained from opium poppy rich in morphine but includes the morphine alkaloid con- 3 The area harvested and the estimated area for opium poppy rich in tained in opium poppy rich in thebaine and in opium poppy rich in oripavine are reflected under opium poppy rich in thebaine in table 1. codeine whenever appropriate.
116 English — Supply and demand Part three Troisième partie Tercera parte c - d d d d d d
7 117 ...... 38 403 322 270 348 365 1 062
2020 d d d d d d b
6 ...... 25 60 33 23 80 96 36 228 282 594 670 312 369 792 333 175 201 101 109 174 174 2019 and stocks, and a
2 8 -2 25 71 88 42 37 20 -33 2018 102 319 250 243 304 306 339 564 484
3 48 79 67 63 23 55 12 -57 -43 327 314 257 282 325 339 650 517 2017 - the Govern by submitted information to According 16. 2020, B for form on countries producing the main of ments - mate raw opiate of global production that estimated is it in mor will 670 tons rials to increase rich in morphine the increase of a result as in 2020, mainly equivalent phine Spain. and Hungary France, Australia, for in the estimates considerably be to adjusted likely 2020 are for Projections available. become when the actual data downward 9 3 43 91 56 63 16 96 75 61 23 2016 351 180 523 181 463 388 367 747 534
77 22 37 33 98 30 76 2015 407 152 168 484 185 586 410 437 149 176 746 558 in tons of morphine equivalent, 2015-2020 equivalent, morphine in tons of
e Opiate raw materials rich in morphine: production, demand, balance between the two between balance production, demand, in morphine: rich raw materials Opiate
(1) minus (2) (1) minus (3) Table 2. Table
of poppy straw Figures for 2019 are based on advance data submitted by Governments to the International Narcotics Control Board. Estimated by the secretariat of the Board. Excluding demand for substances covered not by the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961, as amended by the 1972 Protocol. For more information about the balance between supply (stocks and production) of and demand for opiate raw materials rich in morphine, see part three, Figures for 2020 are based on estimates submitted by Governments to the Board. Opium Poppy straw and concentrate Poppy Production Production Production Production Production Opium Poppy straw Poppy Concentrate of poppy straw and scientific purposes e b c d a
Stocks of Balance, Balance, (2) Total demand for opiate raw materials (2) Total demand for opiates for medical (3) Total
Production production (1) Total Other countries Turkey Production India Spain Hungary France Australia Demand for
Total stocks of opiate raw materials Total Total stocks of all opiates Total para. 28, the of present publication.
: Two dots (. .) indicate that data are not available. Note: Two
for 94 per cent of global production) and production of of production and global production) of 94 per cent for The per6 cent). (or tons 33 to expected is amount to opium expected be to are in 2019 Australia producers main followed global production), of 29.5 per cent for (accounting Turkey and (17.0 per cent) France (29.3 per cent), Spain by expectedare together countries four Those (13.5 per cent). of global of production 89 per cent about for account to 2019. in morphine in rich materials raw opiate Table 3. Opiate raw materials rich in thebaine: production, demand, balance between the twoa and stocks, in tons of thebaine equivalent, 2015-2020
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019b 2020 c
Australia Production 172 147 187 207 115 122 France Production 6 5 18 8 1 — Hungary Production — — — — 1 4 Spain Production 33 34 18 9 5 5 India Thebaine extracted from opium 4 — 5 5 3 2 Other countries Thebaine extracted from poppy straw (M) 1 1 1 1 1 1
(1) Total production 216 187 229 230 126 134
Demand for Opium 3 2 1 2 3 d 3 d Poppy straw and concentrate of poppy straw 180 208 189 144 153 d 166 d
(2) Total demand for opiate raw materials 183 210 190 144 156 d 169 d (3) Total demand for opiates for medical and scientific purposese 151 133 104 97 96 d 95 d Balance, (1) minus (2) 33 -23 39 86 -30 d -35 d Balance, (1) minus (3) 65 54 125 133 30 d 39 d Stocks Opium 8 4 8 7 . . . . Poppy straw 112 89 111 145 . . . . Concentrate of poppy straw 154 131 125 83 . . . .
Total stocks of opiate raw materials 274 224 244 235 205 170
Total stocks of all opiates 241 242 269 248 . . . .
Note: Two dots (. .) indicate that data are not available. aFor more information about the balance between supply (stocks and production) of and demand for opiate raw materials rich in thebaine, see part three, para. 29, of the present publication. bFigures for 2019 are based on advance data submitted by Governments to the International Narcotics Control Board. cFigures for 2020 are based on estimates submitted by Governments to the Board. dEstimated by the secretariat of the Board. eExcluding demand for substances not covered by the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961, as amended by the 1972 Protocol.
Thebaine for the remaining 2.6 per cent. Production in 2018 was comparable to the level in 2017. Australia was the only 17. In 2018, global production of opiate raw materials major producer of opium poppy rich in thebaine that rich in thebaine amounted to 230 tons5 in thebaine equiv- reported an increase in production in 2018, to 207 tons alent (see table 3). Australia accounted for about 90 per (compared with 187 tons in 2017). In 2018, France and cent of global production of those opiate raw materials, Spain reported that production had decreased, by 56 per Spain accounted for 3.9 per cent, France accounted for cent and 50 per cent, respectively, while India produced about 3.5 per cent, and India and other countries accounted the same quantity as in 2017 (5 tons).
5 The analysis is based predominantly on raw materials obtained from opium poppy rich in thebaine but includes the thebaine alkaloid 18. Global production of opiate raw materials rich in the- contained in opium poppy rich in morphine whenever appropriate. baine is expected to decline significantly to about 126 tons
118 English — Supply and demand Part three Troisième partie Tercera parte 119 amended amended demand for for demand (b) market anticipated anticipated market fluctuations in the fluctuations (c)
6 in terms of the utilization of opiate opiate of the utilization of terms in (a) in terms of global consumption for medical for global of consumption in terms Demand for opiates Demand (b) Global demand for opiate raw materials rich in rich materials raw opiate for Global demand raw opiate for manufacturers by Global demand - opi for demand measures INCB describedAs below, Global stocks of thebaine-based opiate raw materials materials raw thebaine-based opiate of Global stocks Prior to 2003, INCB measured the global demand only by global by only the global demand measured 2003, INCB to Prior
6 drugs; used narcotic commonly less for demand consumption of major opiates controlled under the 1961 Convention as the 1961 Convention under controlled opiates major of consumption equivalent. in morphine expressed the 1972 Protocol, by amended excluded: were the following approximation, that using by However, followed by the United States (54 tons), France (27 tons), tons), (27 France tons), (54 States the United by followed raw opiate of stocks The tons). (6 India and (17 tons) Spain accounted countries in these rich in thebaine five materials global 2018, while in - of stocks coun 99 percent about for importing countries and levels production tries lower with stocks. the remaining held materials raw thoseopiate 22. oxymorphone) of a small quantity and thebaine (oxycodone, of the end at equivalent in thebaine decreased 248 tons to to sufficient were stocks in 2017. Those 269 tons 2018, from medical for thebaine-based opiates for global demand cover years. two than purposesmore for scientific and and scientific purposes of all opiates controlled under under the controlled purposes opiates of scientific all and amended. as Convention 1961 substances that are not controlled under the 1961 Convention as as the 1961 Convention under controlled not are that substances the consumption for and materials raw opiate from manufactured are but and INCB; to available not are whichdata of utilization of raw materials due to developments in the developments to due materials raw of utilization expected opiates, sales of of expectations as such the manufacturers, by so on. and opiates or materials raw of prices in changes (a) Demand for opiate raw materials by raw materials opiate for Demand as utilization manufacturers measured of raw materials 24. (in particular opium) hasmorphine been since decreasing equivalent, in morphine 339 tons was 2018, it 2014. In expected is it to in 2017. However, the level to similar in 2019 equivalent in morphine 369 tons to again, increase 2020. in equivalent morphine in tons 403 to and 25. in thebaine has rich materials trend a decreasing followed in decreased 144 tons to 2018, the demand 2016. In since is it However, 2017. in tons 190 from equivalent, thebaine equi thebaine in tons 156 expectedto 2019, in increase to equivalent. thebaine in tons 169 to 2020, in and valent, 23. ways: two in ates - manufac by reflect demand the to in order materials, raw and turers; - Northern Northern At the end of 2018, global stocks of opiates of mor of opiates 2018, global of stocks of the end At Stocks of opiate raw materials rich in thebaine (poppy (poppy in thebaine rich materials raw opiate of Stocks As shown in table 2, stocks of opiate raw materials rich materials raw opiate of 2, stocks in table shown As 21. decreased to opium) and straw poppy of concentrate straw, 2018, from of the end at equivalent in thebaine 235 tons considered were stocks Those2017. of the end at tons 244 the expected months 18 for about cover to beto sufficient of the 2019 level at worldwide manufacturers need of of stocks the largest held (see 3). Australia table demand was it (128 tons); rich in thebaine materials raw opiate Thebaine phine-based opiate raw materials, mainly in the form of of the in form mainly materials, raw phine-based opiate in morphine tons 484 to amounted morphine, codeine and for globalcover demand to sufficient were and equivalent reported Based data on 19 months. about for those opiates raw opiate and opiates of stocks total Governments, by for medical demand cover to fully sufficient are materials for opiates purposesmorphine-based scientific for and year. a than more 19. and straw poppy of concentrate straw, (poppy in morphine equivalent in morphine 564 tons about to amounted opium) 650 tons from 13 per cent by 2018, decreasing of the end at to to sufficient be considered were stocks in 2017. Those the expected manufacturers needs of 18 months for cover was 2018, Turkey In demand. of the 2019 level at worldwide materials raw opiate of stocks the country the largest with France tons), (78 Spain by followed was it tons); (154 Australia opium), of all in the form (58 tons, (73 tons), India and Britain Great of Kingdom the United (57 tons), Morphine 20. Global stocks of opiate raw materials and materials raw of opiate stocks Global from them derived of opiates Slovakia (43 tons), States the United (54 tons), Ireland (21 Those Belgium (7 tons). and (18 tons) Japan tons), 10 countries global of 99.8 per cent for accounted together The rich in morphine. materials raw opiate of stocks countries producing in other held were stocks remaining materials. raw opiate importing countries in and in thebaine equivalent in 2019 as a result of a significant significant a of a result in 2019 as equivalent in thebaine in all countries cultivation of area in the estimated decline in Production in thebaine. rich poppy opium producing (or per 88 cent by expected2019 is France in decline to 7 ha), 92 ha),(or 44 per cent by in Australia by in Spain 2 ha). (or 4 ha) 40 per cent (or by 44 per cent in India and the largest for account to expected is continue to Australia global of production. tons) 115 or (91 per cent, share in 2020 materials raw opiate thebaine-rich of Production tons. 134 expected is to increase to Figure I. Consumption of morphine and opiates derived Figure II. Supply of and demand for opiate raw materials from morphine, in morphine equivalent, 2015–2018 rich in morphine, in morphine equivalent, 2015–2020
on o morp ine e ui a ent on o morp ine e ui a ent
a b ear ear odeine Di dro odeine orp ine Sto a at De em er Produ tion in o pre iou ear urrent ear dro odone t er Demand or opiate raw materia
aData for production and demand for 2019 are based on advance data (dotted line) submitted by Governments. Demand for opiates measured as bData for 2020 are based on estimates (dotted line) submitted by Governments. consumption fluctuations. In 2017, however, global production started to 26. Figure I presents a breakdown of the demand in be lower than global demand, which led to a declining trend terms of consumption of morphine-based opiates, expressed in global stocks. Global stocks at the end of 2018 amounted in morphine equivalent, for the main narcotic drugs. to 564 tons in morphine equivalent, a level sufficient to cover for about 18 months the expected global demand in 2019 Codeine and hydrocodone are the most consumed opiates 7 manufactured from morphine. Global demand for (see figure II). In 2019, global production of opiate raw morphine-based opiates decreased to 306 tons in morphine materials rich in morphine is expected to increase signifi- equivalent in 2018, from 325 tons in 2017. cantly, which might result in an increase of global stocks. The estimated global stocks at the end of 2019 (792 tons) 27. Demand for thebaine-based opiates is concentrated will be sufficient to cover for about 24 months the expected mainly in the United States and increased sharply after the global demand in 2020. For 2020, producing countries have late 1990s. However, in 2013, the demand started to decline indicated that they plan to further increase production con- owing to a decrease in demand in the United States. Global siderably, while demand is expected to increase at a much demand for thebaine-based opiates decreased from lower rate than in the previous year. In conjunction with 151 tons in 2015 to 97 tons in 2018. And it is expected to this, stocks are expected to reach about 1,062 tons at the decrease slightly, to 96 tons in 2019 and 95 tons in 2020, end of 2020, a level considered to be sufficient to cover the as the consumption of such opiates continues to decrease expected global demand for more than two years. The global in the United States and at the global level. supply of opiate raw materials rich in morphine (stocks and production) will continue to be fully sufficient to cover global demand for more than a year. Balance between the supply of and demand for opiate raw materials Thebaine
Morphine 29. In 2018, global production of opiate raw materials rich in thebaine amounted to 230 tons in thebaine 28. In the period 2009–2016, global production of opiate 7 raw materials rich in morphine exceeded global demand. As Because of a change in format, figures II and III are not directly comparable with the figures that appeared as figures II and III in editions a result, stocks increased during that period, with some of this technical publication before 2008.
120 English — Supply and demand Part three Troisième partie Tercera parte 121 ear c expressed in expressed a S nt eti opioid 9 b piate a - consump of theaggregation allow To (S-DDD), 1999–2018 8 , vol. 1019, No. 14956. No. 1019, Series vol. , Treaty pioid Global consumption of opioids, consumption Global - opi of globalOver consumption 20 years, the past billions of defined daily doses for statistical purposes doses for statistical daily of defined billions See the explanatory notes to tables XIV.1.a-i, XIV.2 and XIV.3 for for XIV.3 and XIV.2 XIV.1.a-i, tables to notes Seethe explanatory United United Nations, Including buprenorphine, on an opiate controlled under the Convention Opioids: opiates and synthetic opioids. Including pentazocine, a synthetic opioid controlled under the 1971 IV. Figure 8 9 b c a
i ion o S DDD
tion data for substances for data tion the potencies, different having defined of in billions expressed are levels consumption purposes. statistical doses for daily presented in figure IV. The figure reflects data on opioids, opioids, on reflects data figure The IV. figure in presented - opi whichare pentazocine, and buprenorphine including Psychotropic on the Convention under controlled oids 1971. of Substances an explanation of defined daily doses for statistical purposes and for the purposesfor statistical and for doses defined daily of explanation an see levels; XIV.3 also table methodusedthose calculate to consumption levels. consumption in further developments on details for Psychotropic Substances of 1971. Psychotropic 31. of of consumption oids hasshare The doubled. than more fluctuated opioids of consumption the total to opiates 68 per to share) in 2008 (thebetween lowest 51 per cent - opi of 2018, the share In share). in 2014 (the highest cent 67 per with cent compared decreased 63 per to cent, ates opioids, of synthetic use the that indicates in 2017. This opiates, as indications thesame used for which are the that indicates overall trend in 2018. The increased is it but in the future, increase might opiates for demand opioids of consumption the total of if their share clear not of the consumption to decrease in relation will or increase opioids. synthetic
Convention. b ear (dotted a Produ tion in urrent ear submitted by Governments. (dotted line) Supply of and demand for opiate raw materials raw materials for opiate demand of and Supply Demand or opiate raw materia Sto a at De em er o pre iou ear rich in thebaine, in thebaine equivalent, 2015–2020 equivalent, thebaine in in thebaine, rich The global consumption levels of opiates and syn- and opiates of levels The global consumption submitted by Governments. Data for 2020 are based on estimates Data for production and demand for 2019 are based on advance data a b Figure III. Figure on o t e aine e ui a ent on o t e aine line) thetic opioids over the 20-year period the 20-year 1999–2018 are over thetic opioids 30. Trends in consumption levels of opioids in consumption levels Trends equivalent, which was comparable to the level in 2017 in the level to comparable whichwas equivalent, (229 rich in materials raw opiate for Demand tons). in 2018, when it decline to continued however, thebaine, in 2017. This 190 tons with compared 144 tons, reached should in demand decline in the increase an led to have according 2018. However, of the end at held stocks of level global of the level Governments, by submitted the data to in 244 tons in 2018 (from decreased 235 tons to stocks to meetglobal demand sufficient were stocks 2017). Those is production Global III). (see figure months 18 for expected by decrease almost to in 2019 126 tons, to half, 2019, global stocks of the end in 2018). By 230 tons (from reach to likely are in thebaine rich materials raw opiate of for about globalcover demand to sufficient a level 205 tons, expected is increase to 2020, production In 15 months. Governments. by provided based the estimates on slightly also is rich in thebaine materials raw opiate for Demand - produc than greater level a expectedreaching increase, to expected 170 tons decrease to to are stocks a result, as tion; are of 2020 at end the stocks 2020. Those of the end at The year. one for about globalcover demand to sufficient rich in thebaine materials raw opiate of global supply to sufficient than will be more production) and (stocks 2020. and 2019 in global demand cover