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Pacific Forum CSIS Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations edited by Brad Glosserman Vivian Brailey Fritschi 3rd Quarter 2004 Vol. 6, No. 3 October 2004 www.csis.org/pacfor/ccejournal.html Pacific Forum CSIS Based in Honolulu, Hawaii, the Pacific Forum CSIS operates as the autonomous Asia- Pacific arm of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Founded in 1975, the thrust of the Forum’s work is to help develop cooperative policies in the Asia- Pacific region through debate and analyses undertaken with the region’s leaders in the academic, government, and corporate arenas. The Forum’s programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic/business, and oceans policy issues. It collaborates with a network of more than 30 research institutes around the Pacific Rim, drawing on Asian perspectives and disseminating its projects’ findings and recommendations to opinion leaders, governments, and publics throughout the region. An international Board of Governors guides the Pacific Forum’s work; it is chaired by Brent Scowcroft, former Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. The Forum is funded by grants from foundations, corporations, individuals, and governments, the latter providing a small percentage of the forum’s $1.2 million annual budget. The Forum’s studies are objective and nonpartisan and it does not engage in classified or proprietary work. Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Edited by Brad Glosserman and Vivian Brailey Fritschi Volume 6, Number 3 Third Quarter 2004 Honolulu, Hawaii October 2004 Comparative Connections A Quarterly Electronic Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Bilateral relationships in East Asia have long been important to regional peace and stability, but in the post-Cold War environment, these relationships have taken on a new strategic rationale as countries pursue multiple ties, beyond those with the U.S., to realize complex political, economic, and security interests. How one set of bilateral interests affects a country’s other key relations is becoming more fluid and complex, and at the same time is becoming more central to the region’s overall strategic compass. Comparative Connections, Pacific Forum’s quarterly electronic journal on East Asian bilateral relations edited by Brad Glosserman and Vivian Brailey Fritschi, with Ralph A. Cossa serving as senior editor, was created in response to this unique environment. Comparative Connections provides timely and insightful analyses on key bilateral relationships in the region, including those involving the U.S. We regularly cover 12 key bilateral relationships that are critical for the region. While we recognize the importance of other states in the region, our intention is to keep the core of the e- journal to a manageable and readable length. Because our project cannot give full attention to each of the relationships in Asia, coverage of U.S.-Southeast Asia and China-Southeast Asia countries consists of a summary of individual bilateral relationships, and may shift focus from country to country as events warrant. Other bilateral relationships may be tracked periodically (such as various bilateral relationships with India or Australia’s significant relationships) as events dictate. Our aim is to inform and interpret the significant issues driving political, economic, and security affairs of the U.S. and East Asian relations by an ongoing analysis of events in each key bilateral relationship. The reports, written by a variety of experts in Asian affairs, focus on political/security developments, but economic issues are also addressed. Each essay is accompanied by a chronology of significant events occurring between the states in question during the quarter. A regional overview section places bilateral relationships in a broader context of regional relations. By providing value-added interpretative analyses, as well as factual accounts of key events, the e-journal illuminates patterns in Asian bilateral relations that may appear as isolated events and better defines the impact bilateral relationships have upon one another and on regional security. ii Table of ContentsContents Regional Overview:………………………………………………………………………………1 Global Posture Review: Is Washington Marching Out? by Ralph A. Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS The quarter began on a high note with a meeting between Secretary of State Colin Powell and DPRK Foreign Minister Paek Nam Sun at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) ministerial, but an “agreement in principle” to talk deteriorated into name calling amid revelations about earlier ROK nuclear experiments, providing Pyongyang with yet another excuse to boycott the six-party talks. President Bush revealed that, worldwide, some 60-70,000 U.S. forces based overseas would be brought home over the next decade as part of the Global Posture Review, 12,500 from Korea. Elsewhere in Asia, democracy marched on, especially in Indonesia where Gen. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono won that nation’s first direct democratic presidential election. Meanwhile, ARF ministers confirmed their intent to further institutionalize the ARF process, while repeating pledges to fight terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. U.S.-Japan Relations:…………………………………………………………………………..23 Calm amidst a ‘C’ of Troubles by Brad Glosserman, Pacific Forum CSIS It has been another relatively calm quarter for U.S.-Japan relations. There was one potential calamity (the crash of a U.S. helicopter in Okinawa) and a few controversies, but, in the main, the alliance was on cruise control. The issues of note had Japanese domestic political consequences: the Upper House election, comments from U.S. officials about the Japanese constitution and, related to that, the Bush-Koizumi meeting at the United Nations that addressed, among other things, Tokyo’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. In short, the alliance is functioning well and absorbing rather smoothly whatever complications arise. The best indication of the state of the relationship may be the fact that Japan has not come up in this year’s U.S. election campaign. The solidity and stability of the alliance have allowed it to recede into the background. iii U.S.-China Relations:…………………………………………………………………………..37 Rice Visits Beijing, but Disappoints Her Hosts by Bonnie S. Glaser, Consultant on Asian Affairs National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice unexpectedly decided to visit Beijing as well as Tokyo and Seoul. Chinese leaders failed in their efforts to extract a commitment to reduce U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and intensify pressure on Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian to refrain from taking provocative steps toward the establishment of a legally independent state. The third visit to China by chief of the U.S. Pacific Command Adm. Thomas Fargo was also dominated by discussions about the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. and China also faced off over how to respond to the escalating violence in Sudan. China’s foreign minister personally complained about the alleged beating of a Chinese citizen by U.S. border patrol in late July. Finally, Beijing awaits the U.S. presidential elections with trepidation and ambivalence. U.S.-Korea Relations:…………………………………………………………………………..47 A Holding Pattern for the Six-Party Talks by Donald G. Gross, Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer & Feld The six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program remained in a holding pattern as Pyongyang seems to be evading a new round before the U.S. presidential elections. Although Bush administration officials stressed the benefits North Korea would receive from accepting the current U.S. proposal, Pyongyang was uncooperative and denounced the “hostile policy” of the United States. The U.S. and South Korea reached agreement on the relocation of the U.S. command headquarters from Yongsan base in central Seoul to the Pyongtaek region. But they were unable to resolve the issue of how many troops the U.S. would withdraw from the South by the end of 2005 as part of the planned global realignment of U.S. forces. On economic and trade issues, the U.S. and South Korea conducted discussions on the export of computers and other dual-use high technologies to the Kaesong industrial complex in North Korea. U.S.-Russia Relations:………………………………………………………………………….57 A Tragic Summer by Joseph Ferguson, Princeton University The events of the past few months in both the United States and Russia highlight just how deeply embroiled each nation is in their respective national struggles against terrorism and against “insurgents” in Iraq and in Chechnya. Whereas the terror attacks in Russia garnered tremendous international attention, the quiet passing of a milestone in the U.S. campaign in Iraq drew much less notice: just this past month, the 1,000th U.S. soldier died in Iraq. Whether the tragedies of the summer months will steel the strategic partnership or sow discord will be played out over the next several months. Great change is unlikely, barring a series of catastrophic events. The bet here is that the status quo will maintain an ambiguous partnership united more by hatred of terrorism than by domestic concerns. iv U.S.-Southeast Asia Relations:……………………………………………………….………..65 Philippines Withdraws from Iraq and JI Strikes Again Sheldon Simon, Arizona State University The early withdrawal of the Philippines’ small armed forces contingent from Iraq in response to a militant group’s threat to murder a Filipino hostage disappointed the United States

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