WFP Nepal Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Bulletin # 1
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WFP Nepal Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Bulletin # 1 - January 2004 NOT FOR COPYING Introduction WFP Nepal will produce these bulletins in place of for these bulletins are a combination of quantitative the previous quarterly field surveillance reports. The data and anecdotal information obtained from the 30 bulletins will provide regular updates on key issues WFP field monitors now working in 32 project dis- relating to the situation of general food security in tricts. This bulletin reviews developments in the last Nepal and more specifically for those populations who quarter of 2003 and the first two weeks of January may be at increased risk due to their vulnerability and 2004. the impact of the conflict. The sources of information Highlights Seasonal out migration to India is taking place in pared to July/August 2003. This showed some im- accordance with the normal annual cycle after provement in November/December with the figure completion of harvesting in the last quarter of 2003. coming down to some 29 % of surveyed households It has been noted that some 28,000 people from 60 remaining worse off than they were prior to the inter- districts of Nepal, either alone or with families, were ruption of the ceasfire. This indicates some improve- reported to have migrated to India through Nepalgunj, ment in the general situation following the harvest in Mahendranagar and Dhangadhi border points from November/December as compared to the period im- mid November 2003 to mid January 2004 averaging mediately after the breakdown of ceasefire in Au- about 3,500 each week. Most of the people were gust. The improvement was more significant in from the far and mid western regions. This out-mi- households whose primary occupations are farming gration normally occurs at the beginning of the lean and daily wage labour as compared to households season in early December but appears to be have whose primary income is linked to small cottage in- been exacerbated by general insecurity. Although dustry and salaried jobs where the improvement ap- difficult to quantify precisely, some 7% of migrants pears to be significantly lower. reported their migration to be a direct result of the conflict. Formal clearance has been given by MLD / WFP to commence 44 Quick Impact Projects (QIP) in the Harvesting of the major crops such as paddy and districts of Bajhang, Bajura, Jumla and Kalikot maize in most of the survey districts took place in Projects cleared so far have been submitted by WVI October/November. Harvests were reported to be and SAPPROS and are equivalent to some 208 mt generally good with production achieving normal lev- of FFW in support of an estimated 2,500 participants/ els in most places. However, restrictions on the move- households thereby supporting some 13,500 vulner- ment of food and people as a result of frequent inter- able individuals with food assistance in the more food rogations from both sides, combined with the impo- insecure VDCs of the targeted districts. More projects sition of a strict entry visa system by the Maoists into are expected to be cleared over the coming weeks and within some districts have limited the flows of which should absorb the balance of the 1500 mt of essential goods. This complicates and hinders the rice so far allocated for QIPs. access to food for some populations. Donations of both money and food crops to the Maoists continues In coordination with key partners, WFP suspended in many districts which can also impact adversely its assistance to Food for Work and School Feeding on food stocks and local level economic activity. Activities in Dailekh following the kidnap and murder of two development workers by the Maoists. The sus- The average prices of staple commodities in survey pension will be reviewed in mid February following areas appeared to have increased by about 5% at an investigation into the incidents and, provided ad- the end of 2003 as compared to the same period in equate security for development agency workers are 2002. However, in the far western mountain region guaranteed by both parties in the conflict, the sus- the average price of staple food commodities ap- pension may be lifted. WFP also suspended its sup- pears to have increased by as much as 26 % over port to Food for Work programmes in Bajura follow- the same period. ing the alleged looting of 6.5 mts of WFP rice by the Maoists. An investigation into this incident is under- At the household level, coping indices suggest that way. some 51% of surveyed households had a lower level of food security for September/October 2003 as com- Out-migrantion From mid November 2003 to mid January 2004, 70 The majority (77%) of the migrants reported that they randomly selected migrants passing through were going to India for periods of five months, six Nepalgunj, Mahendranagar and Dhangadhi border months, and one year (Fig.1) with the intention of re- points en route to India were interviewed. turning. (1) WFP Nepal Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Bulletin # 1 - January 2004 Fig.1. Planned duration of out migration Farming was reported to be the major source of live- 45 lihood for some 70% of the migrants interviewed. Of 40 the others, 4.3% indicated that remittances were their 35 30 only source of livelihood and 8.6 % that daily wages 25 were their only source of income. The remaining 20 15 17.1% indicated that their families were dependent 10 upon a variety of income sources such as remittances, 5 Percent of sam ple out-m igrants 0 daily wage labour, farming and other jobs (Fig. 4). Five Tw o Four Three Seven Tw elve months months months months months months m onths One month Six months Six Fig.4. Major source of livelihood Dur ation Tw four enty Most of the migrants passing through these border 70 60 points were from Surkhet, Salyan, Dailekh, Kailali, 50 Jumla, Jajarkot, Dang, Kalikot and Rolpa in the mid 40 30 western region and from Achham and Doti in the far migrants 20 western region (Fig.2). Movement of people seems out- of Percent 10 very limited from some districts like Bajhang and 0 Bajura due to restrictions and harassment imposed Other by both sides in the conflict. Fa r m ing Daily w age Remittance Fig.2.Out migration through Nepalgunj, Dhangadhi and Mahendranagar borders) Farming+Daily w age Farming+Remittance Sources Surkhet 3349 Salyan 3190 Dailekh 2277 Some 60% of the migrants stated that their wives who Achham 1909 stayed behind were responsible for managing food Kailali 1907 while they were away from home largely surviving Jum la 1889 Jajarkot 1793 through the sale of agricultural produce, daily wages Dis tr icts Dang 1635 and remittances. Kalik o t 1487 Doti 1106 Rolpa 1062 Regional Updates No. of people Far western hill and mountain districts (Bajhang, Bajura, Doti, Achham, Dadeldhura, From more than 70% of the households represented Darchula and Baitadi) from the sample group, one to two members of each family were migrating. The other 30% of migrants Generally, food is said to be available at markets in tended to come from families where more than 2 mem- the district headquarters and local markets in all seven bers were migrating. of the survey districts in this region. However, some districts like Bajhang, Bajura and Achham are said to Most migrants interviewed come from families rang- be more affected in terms of restrictions on move- ing between 4 to 9 members and the typical house- ment of food from both the Maoists and security forces. hold size from this group was 6. Security forces restrict food movement from district headquarters to the interior parts of the districts while There were three main reasons given for out-migra- the Maoists restrict food going towards the district tion. The majority (80%) said their movement was part headquarters. of the normal seasonal pattern while 13 % said that it was due to unusual economic reasons, possibly linked Accessibility is reported to be problem in some of the to the insecurity. The remaining 7% reported their VDCs in Achham, Bajhang and Bajura (Maps 1,2,3). movement as directly linked to specific security threats In Bajhang, accessibility is limited due to the need for (Fig.3). maoist entry visas combined with the perception / pos- Fig.3. Reasons for out-migration sibility that outsiders could face possible charges for Unusual incidents which could be related to their visits to com- economic munities. In Bajura, the Maoists have restricted entry reason 13% of outsiders because VDC level elections are being Insecurity w ith conducted in their areas of influence. There are per- specific threat 7% ceived to be threats of kidnap and even murder if re- strictions are not respected. Similarly, in Achham, where VDC level elections are also said to be taking Seasonal/Regula r economic 80% (2) WFP Nepal Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Bulletin # 1 - January 2004 place, some 5 VDCs were said to be inaccessible due Fig.5. Darchula - Price change as compared to Jan/Feb03 to perceived insecurity and a strict visa system. 180 160 Batmudi 140 Maoists continue to request donations from develop- Jamirpani ment workers from both government and non gov- 120 Gholjar 100 Chaurigau ernmental organizations as well as from school teach- 80 Baspali ers, bus and truck owners and business people. In 60 Darchula, school teachers were asked to donate 5% 40 20 of their salary to the Maoists while bus and truck own- 0 Price Relative (100 as a base value) as a base (100 Relative Price ers were asked to pay some Rs.