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Competition Between Socialist and Nationalist Parties in Established Democracies: the Cases of Britain and Spain

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Competition Between Socialist and Nationalist Parties in Established Democracies: the Cases of Britain and Spain Competition between Socialist and Nationalist Parties in Established Democracies: The Cases of Britain and Spain [First Draft: Comments Welcome] Sonia Alonso Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin [email protected] Andrew Richards Juan March Institute, Madrid [email protected] Prepared for delivery at the XVI ISA World Congress of Sociology, Durban, South Africa, 23-29 July 2006. Abstract The paper examines the dynamics of electoral competition between socialist and nationalist parties in ethnically heterogeneous political contexts. We contend that in such contexts, the historic dilemma of socialist parties, whereby they have sought to retain the loyalty of their core working class constituencies at the same time as seeking votes beyond the working class in order to gain electoral majorities, is exacerbated by competition with nationalist parties. The latter may advance electorally at the expense of socialist parties by mobilising workers on the basis of their ethnic-, as well as their class- based, identities. Through the combined use of aggregate electoral data and individual survey data, we examine such electoral competition in two contrasting cases of ethnically heterogeneous political contexts, those of Britain (Scotland and Wales), where the Labour Party has traditionally dominated regional politics, and Spain (Catalonia and the Basque Country), where electoral competition between socialist and nationalist parties has been much more contested. We find that in all four regions, the lion’s share of vote movements between elections takes place between the socialist and nationalist parties. There are, however, important contrasts between countries and regions. The British Left has a much stronger grip on the working class vote in Scotland and Wales than the Spanish Left in the Basque Country and Catalonia. However, the Scottish and Welsh nationalist parties’ ideological shifts to the left have enabled them to undermine the Labour Party’s longstanding ability to capture both class and nationalist allegiances among working class voters. In Spain, the Left has lost the battle for the working class vote in the Basque Country, while retaining majority working class support in Catalonia only in elections to the national, but not regional, parliaments. We also find that workers with an exclusively Spanish or British identity vote massively for non-nationalist parties, while those with an exclusively regional ethnic identity display more heterogeneous voting behaviour. Further research is required for understanding the role of parties’ strategies in effecting the type of vote movements between nationalist and non-nationalist electoral blocs analysed in the paper. Key words: Nationalism; Ethnicity; Socialism; Political Identities; Working Class; Voting Behaviour; Political Parties. 2 1. Introduction1 Left-wing political parties have always faced dilemmas in their attempts to gain electoral majorities. Historically, the working class, as their natural constituency, never amounted to an absolute electoral majority in and of itself, thereby defying Marx’s prediction that revolution would be made at the ballot box; besides, a significant proportion of workers voted for other parties. To win electoral majorities, Left-wing parties have always had to construct coalitions of potentially conflicting interests: “whether parties deliberately restrict their appeal to specific groups or attempt to conquer the entire electorate, their opportunities are limited by the heterogeneity of developed capitalist societies. In a heterogeneous society, no party can win the support of everyone without losing the support of someone, because some other party will put in the wedge” (Przeworski and Sprague 1986: 183). The dilemmas of electoral Socialism have largely been conceived in terms of class – that is, the need for Left-wing parties to gain middle-class votes in order to win elections involves, at the same time, a dilution of socialist commitments and the possible alienation of their traditional working-class constituency.2 However, in ethnically heterogeneous contexts, the focus of this paper, these historic dilemmas are even more acute. Where an ethnic cleavage cuts across the class cleavage, Left-wing and Nationalist parties may well compete for the loyalty of the same voters: in a context where ethnic and class allegiances are compatible, what requires explanation is how this is manifested in terms of voting choice. We seek to develop such an explanation based on an analysis of working class voting behaviour in two contrasting ethnically heterogeneous political contexts, those of Britain (Scotland and Wales) and Spain (Catalonia and the Basque Country). The initial historical configuration, and subsequent trajectory, of electoral competition between Nationalism and the Left differed considerably between Spain and Britain. In Catalonia and the Basque Country, Socialism and Nationalism emerged simultaneously as political forces, and none has been electorally predominant until well into the contemporary period. In Wales and Scotland, however, the Labour Party 1 We are extremely grateful to John D. Boy for his invaluable research assistance, especially with respect to preparation of the data. 2 This is precisely how Przeworski and Sprague (1986: 3) formulate the dilemma: “given the minority status of workers, leaders of class-based parties must choose between a party homogeneous in its class appeal but sentenced to perpetual electoral defeats or a party that struggles for electoral success at the cost of diluting its class orientation”. 3 emerged by the 1920s to capture both the class and ethnic loyalties of Welsh and Scottish workers. Only from the mid-1960s onwards was Labour’s political dominance challenged significantly by the emergence of Nationalist parties. The origins of these contrasting initial configurations of Left-Nationalist competition are complex and beyond the scope of this paper. In Spain, in the initial decades of co-existence, Left and Nationalist parties competed electorally, but on the basis of mutually exclusive bases of mobilisation, the former on the basis of class allegiances and the latter on the basis of ethnic and nationalist allegiances. In Britain, given the initial absence of Nationalism as a political force, the Labour Party was able to mobilise and maintain political support as the articulator of Welsh and Scottish working class interests within the wider British polity. Over time, though, we see in both countries the emergence of an explicit battle between the Left and the Nationalists for the same voters. In Spain, what had historically been two separate electoral constituencies became increasingly intertwined, while in Britain, Nationalist parties gradually began to target Labour’s traditional working class constituency as a means of electoral advance. In other words, given an increasingly heterogeneous electorate, the challenge for Left parties has been to attract all workers, irrespective of their ethnic allegiances or origins, while the challenge for Nationalist parties has been to attract all members of an ethnic group, irrespective of their social class. In terms of explicit electoral competition, therefore, Left parties have been forced to take positions on the territorial/regional issue, while Nationalists have been forced to take positions – or, more accurately, accentuate their positions – along the Left-Right dimension. In this paper, we examine the outcome of this battle in the contemporary period. We find that the strength of the class cleavage varies between the four regions studied and within regions over time. Nonetheless, we do not see a clear weakening of class voting per se, rather its transformation into something else, akin to the nationalist class voter. In the Basque Country, this takes the form of voting for one of the nationalist parties, all of which are Left or Centre-Left. In Catalonia, Wales and Scotland, it is still unclear what form it takes, sometimes resulting in support for the Left and sometimes for the Nationalists. What is clear is that Hechter’s claim (2004: 404) is not sustained: “social classes whose members are of different status [cultural/national] groups are less likely to be class-conscious than homogenous ones; by the same token, status groups whose members are of different classes are less likely to have cultural consciousness”. The paper is structured as follows. In Part Two, we provide a brief overview of the historical development of competition between Nationalism and the Left in Britain and Spain, before turning to a more detailed description of aggregate trends in the vote 4 shares of the Nationalists and the British and Spanish Left3 since the early 1970s. In Part Three we describe the data and the variables used in the subsequent analysis of individual electoral data. In Part Four we turn to a more detailed examination of the electoral landscape in the four regions in the contemporary period including a brief description of their parties’ positioning on the ideological and nationalist scales and an analysis of the regions’ electorate in terms of ideology, party identification and strength and nature of nationalist identity. Given this, in Part Five, we look at the movement of votes between the Left and the Nationalists, and in Part Six, we examine the working class vote itself. Finally, we present our conclusions. 2. Left – Nationalist Competition in Historical Perspective 2.1. Labour and Nationalism in Britain. By the mid-1920s, Labour had displaced the Liberal
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