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Millennium Investment Banking Weekly 11 May 2012

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Millennium Investment Banking Weekly 11 May 2012 IBERIA EQUITY RESEARCH 11 May 2012 TOP STORIES Portugal Telecom - America Movil offered €2.6 bn this week to increase its stake in Dutch operator KPN. This announcement supported PT’s performance in the week, as it draws attention to European incumbent operators, particularly those which are possible consolidation targets (page 6). OUT THIS WEEK Earnings Comment – Telefónica, Zon Multimedia, Media Capital, Cofina, Indra, Novabase, EDP, EDP Renováveis, Sonae Sierra, Sonae Industria, Altri Price Target / Recommendation Changes – Semapa, Jerónimo Martins, Altri Other News – Telefónica, Zon Multimedia, Bankinter, Banking Sector, EDP, Mota-Engil, Galp Energia, Sonae, Jerónimo Martins, Portugal Telecom WEEK AHEAD Monday – Oi’s 1Q12 Earnings; REN’s 1Q12 Earnings Tuesday – BES’ 1Q12 Earnings Thursday – Portugal Telecom’s 1Q12 Earnings Friday – Semapa’s AGM During the week – Brazilian mobile subscribers by the end of April (Anatel) PORTFOLIOS This week, Mib Aggressive Portfolio went up 1.97%, outperforming the PSI20 by 1.72pp. Excluding Sonae Industria and Novabase, all stocks contributed for this outperformance (page 19). This week, Mib Liquidity Portfolio went up 1.88%, outperforming the PSI20 by 1.63pp. Excluding Indra and Galp Energia, all stocks contributed for this outperformance (page 20). Stock Market Last 1W YTD 2011 Daily Vol. (€mn) 1W 1M 6M 2011 WEEKLY PSI 20 5,179 0.25% -5.74% -27.60% PSI 20 78 81 82 148 IBEX 35 6,996 1.74% -18.34% -13.11% IBEX 35 3,647 3,249 2,697 4,925 Euro Stoxx 50 2,255 0.28% -2.68% -5.56% Euro Stox x 50 9,475 9,041 8,153 14,831 António Seladas, CFA Forex Rates Last 1W YTD 2011 Interest Rates Last 1W Chg YE11 +351 21 003 7826 EUR/USD 1.29 -1.43% 0.04% -3.17% Euribor 6m 0.98% 0.99% -1bp 1.62% [email protected] EUR/GBP 0.80 -1.07% -3.83% -2.96% 10Y Bond PT 10.94% 11.10% -16bp 13.36% EUR/BRL 2.51 -0.03% 4.08% 8.86% 10Y Bond SP 6.01% 5.73% 27bp 5.09% Best & Worse Performers -1 Week (%) Best & Worse Performers - YTD (%) Cofina 5.7 Mota-Engil 18.4 EDP Renováveis 5.5 Zon Multimedia 9.8 Av. José Malhoa, Lote 27 Sonae Capital 5.3 Jerónimo Martins 9.5 Bankinter 4.6 Novabase 3.3 1099-010 Lisboa Sonae 4.6 Portucel 3.3 Tel / Fax: +351 21 003 7800 / 09 Sonae Industria -1.9 Iberdrola -27.5 EDP -4.1 Bankinter -28.1 Martifer -5.4 Impresa -34.0 Banco Popular -6.5 Banco Popular -39.5 Impresa -8.8 Cofina -51.3 -15 -5 5 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 Page 1 of 23 All prices are those of the end of the trading session unless otherwise indicated. For important Disclosure and Disclaimer go to the second last page. Millennium investment banking Weekly 11 May 2012 CHANGES New Previous Motive Rating Target Rating Target Semapa Neutral 5.75 Under Revision Valuation Update Jerónimo Martins Buy 15.85 Buy 16.30 Valuation Update Altri Sell 0.85 Neutral 1.20 Valuation Update EARNINGS Company 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 Investor Day Galp Energia ** 13-04 BM 13-07 BM 12-10 BM BPI 20-04 AM 25-07 AM 24-10 AM Portucel 23-04 AM 19-07 AM 22-10 AM Impresa 23-04 AM 23-07 AM 31-10 AM Bankinter 25-04 AM n.a. n.a. Jerónimo Martins 26-04 BM 25-07 BM 25-10 BM Galp Energia 27-04 BM 27-07 BM 26-10 BM 06-03-2012 Banco Popular 27-04 BM n.a. n.a. Sonaecom 03-05 AM n.a. n.a. Brisa 04-05 AM 27-07 AM 31-10 AM 23-11-2012 BCP 07-05 AM 27-07 AM 05-11 AM Semapa 08-05 AM 30-08 AM 30-10 AM Cimpor 08-05 BM 31-07 BM 13-11 BM Sonae Sierra 08-05 AM 01-08 AM 06-11 AM Novabase 09-05 AM 26-07 AM 30-10 AM Sonae Indústria 09-05 AM 26-07 AM 08-11 AM Altri 09-05 AM 29-08 AM 07-11 AM EDP Renováveis 09-05 BM n.a. n.a. 24-05-2012 Zon Multimedia 10-05 BM n.a. n.a. Iberdrola 10-05 BM 25-07 BM 25-10 BM Indra 10-05 AM 26-07 AM 15-11 AM Cofina 10-05 AM 30-08 AM 08-11 AM ESFG 10-05 AM n.a. n.a. EDP 10-05 AM n.a. n.a. 25-05-2012 Media Capital 10-05 AM n.a. n.a. Telefónica 11-05 BM 26-07 BM 07-11 BM REN 14-05 AM 01-08 AM 12-11 AM BES 15-05 AM 30-07 AM 06-11 AM Portugal Telecom 17-05 BM 02-08 BM 08-11 BM Ibersol 21-05 AM 30-08 AM 19-11 AM Martifer 22-05 AM 02-08 AM 15-11 AM Mota-Engil 22-05 AM 31-08 AM 21-11 AM Sonae 23-05 AM 23-08 AM 14-11 AM Sonae Capital 24-05 AM 21-08 AM 15-11 AM Glintt 29-05 27-07 13-11 SAG n.a. n.a. n.a. Soares da Costa n.a. n.a. n.a. AM - After market; BM - Before market; n.a. - Not available; (e) Expected; ** Trading update Page 2 of 23 Millennium investment banking Weekly 11 May 2012 DIVIDENDS Gross Payment Ex-Div Last Year Company AGM Obs DPS Date Date Pay Date Gross DPS Banco Popular* (1) - 11-Jun-12 - - - 11-Oct-11 0.050 - - - - - 21-Jul-11 1x78 ---- -6-May-111x85 - - - - - 12-Jan-11 0.050 Bankinter * 0.048 - - 7-Jan-12 Approved 28-Sep-11 0.052 0.039 - - 7-Apr-12 Approved 2-Jul-11 0.052 ---- -1-Jan-110.048 BCP 0.000 31-May-12 - - - - - BES 0.000 22-Mar-12 - - Approved 11-Apr-11 0.126 BPI 0.000 31-May-12 - - Estimate - - Banif 0.000 22-Mar-12 - - - - 0.020 ESFG 0.000 31-May-12 - - - 3-Jun-11 0.280 Portugal Telecom** 0.435 27-Apr-12 25-May-12 22-May-12 Approved 3-Jun-11 0.650 0.215 - - - Estimate 4-Jan-12 0.215 Sonaecom 0.070 27-Apr-12 24-May-12 21-May-12 Approved 25-May-11 0.050 Zon Multimedia 0.160 27-Apr-12 25-May-12 22-May-12 Approved 6-May-11 0.160 Telefónica** 0.530 13-May-12 18-May-12 18-May-12 Proposed 6-May-11 0.750 0.700 - - - Estimate 7-Nov-11 0.770 Impresa 0.000 24-Apr-12 - - Approved - 0.000 Media Capital 0.069 21-Mar-12 19-Apr-12 16-Apr-12 Approved 15-Apr-11 0.074 Cofina 0.010 12-Apr-12 11-May-12 8-May-12 Approved 21-Jun-11 0.010 Indra 0.680 21-Jun-12 - - Proposed 4-Jul-11 0.680 Novabase 0.030 3-May-12 4-Jun-12 30-May-12 Approved 6-Jun-11 0.130 - - - - - 13-Jul-10 0.180 Glintt 0.000 22-May-12 - - Proposed - - Iberdrola** 0.150 - - - Estimate 5-Aug-11 0.150 0.030 - - - Estimate 13-Jul-11 0.030 EDP 0.185 17-Apr-12 16-May-12 11-May-12 Approved 13-May-11 0.170 EDP Renováveis 0.000 12-Apr-12 - - Approved - 0.000 REN 0.169 27-Mar-12 20-Apr-12 17-Apr-12 Approved 12-May-11 0.168 Brisa 0.310 2-Apr-12 - - Rejected 5-May-11 0.310 Sonae 0.033 30-Apr-12 - - Approved 27-May-11 0.033 J. Martins 0.275 30-Mar-12 30-Apr-12 25-Apr-12 Approved - 0.000 Portucel 0.221 4-Apr-12 20-Apr-12 17-Apr-12 Approved - - Altri 0.020 26-Apr-12 25-May-12 22-May-12 Approved 21-Jun-11 0.020 F Ramada - - - - - 21-Jun-11 0.070 Inapa - - - - - - 0.000 Sonae Industria 0.000 29-Mar-12 - - Approved - 0.000 Sonae Capital 0.000 30-Mar-12 - - Approved - 0.000 Cimpor - 20-Apr-12 - - - 6-May-11 0.205 0.166 6-Jul-12 - - Proposed - - Semapa 0.255 18-May-12 18-Jun-12 13-Jun-12 Proposed - 0.000 Mota-Engil 0.110 17-Apr-12 17-May-12 14-May-12 Approved 13-May-11 0.110 Soares da Costa 0.000 24-May-12 - - Proposed 13-Jun-11 0.022 Teixeira Duarte 0.000 17-May-12 - - Proposed 16-Jun-11 0.015 Martifer 0.000 11-Apr-12 - - Approved - 0.000 Galp Energia 0.200 7-May-12 24-May-12 21-May-12 Approved 30-May-11 0.140 - - - - - 23-Sep-10 0.060 Ibersol 0.055 13-Apr-12 11-May-12 8-May-12 Approved 11-May-10 0.055 SAG 0.000 30-Apr-11 - - Approved - 0.000 na - Not available Estimate: Estimated by the Millennium investment banking Proposed: Announced by the company to be proposed in AGM Approved: Dividend already approved by AGM (1) Due to the merger with Banco Pastor, the second dividend relative to 2011 accounts was not paid in January as usual and should occur in 1Q12 * Company pays dividends four times a year ** Company pays dividends twice a year. (1) Remuneration system, which allows choosing between new, shares or cash. Cash dividend: the price at which Banco Popular will purchase rights is 0.05€.
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