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PDF Report for Nuclear Non-Proliferation at The Report on Wilton Park Conference 944 NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION AT THE CROSSROADS? Monday 15th – Friday 19th December 2008 1. The past decade has seen a perceptible increase, quantitative and qualitative, in the challenges facing the nuclear non-proliferation regime. The emergence of India and Pakistan as nuclear powers made three such states outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which subsequently increased to four with the withdrawal of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK); the revelations about the AQ Khan network demonstrated the scale of the nuclear black market; Iran is suspected of sheltering a nascent nuclear programme inside the NPT; and the revival of interest in nuclear energy carries clear proliferation risks. The regime itself suffers from structural difficulties: the failure of the 2005 NPT Review and the lack of progress in the subsequent PrepComs, continuing lack of movement at the Conference on Disarmament, an apparent decline of commitment to the 13 Steps, and a noticeable loss of US-Russian momentum in arms reductions after the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) and the Strategic Arms reduction Treaty (START), which expires at the end of 2009 unless action is taken, as well as disagreement on missile defense, all testify to the internal challenges. 2. These external and internal challenges have not gone unrecognised, of course. There is growing evidence that a global enterprise on nuclear zero may be emerging: the 2007 and 2008 Wall Street Journal article OpEds about 'A World Free of Nuclear Weapons' and ‘Toward a Nuclear Free World’ written by George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn indicated a revival of interest in nuclear abolition in the US, while elsewhere the 7-Nation Initiative on verification, the establishment of initiatives such as the International Commission on Nuclear Non- Wilton Park Conference WP944 1 Nuclear Non-Proliferation at the Crossroads? December 2008 Page 1 of 17 Proliferation and Disarmament, and the UN Secretary-General's support for a nuclear weapons convention testified to the range of activities taking place. 3. With the 2009 NPT PrepCom imminent and the 2010 Review Conference not far away, it is necessary to decide how to focus the efforts. In doing this, it may be important to avoid too much rehearsal of familiar arguments and an over-emphasis on 'NPT theology'. In disarmament, this may mean that rather than emphasise Article VI and the case for going straight to zero, it can be productive to concentrate on reducing nuclear numbers, de-alerting, decommissioning and thereby reducing the role played by nuclear weapons. This may resonate more with security policy- makers, particularly in the Nuclear Weapon States but also in India, Israel and Pakistan. The latter three states are highly unlikely to join the NPT in the foreseeable future; stressing NPT membership and nuclear abolition is not going to draw them further into the wider non-proliferation regime. The NPT may be the most important instrument in the global non-proliferation regime, but finding parallel processes for these states to supplement it is likely to be more productive than making it the sole instrument. The only way to heaven, so to speak, is not just through the NPT. Elsewhere, working on the entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban treaty (CTBT) and revitalising work on the Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT), de- alerting will also pay medium-term dividends. Since getting all countries to zero simultaneously will be very difficult, the possibility of going to a lower level, e.g. 1000 for a period of time could be an option. The US is not winning the struggle against proliferation, and continued proliferation risks increase the possibility of nuclear war as well as of terrorists acquiring a nuclear weapon. 4. The key, and perhaps the most daunting challenge, will be to find a way to remove the value attached to nuclear weapons by the states that have them and those that may want to possess them. A distinction can be drawn between use and possession. The unacceptability of using nuclear weapons appears to be growingly accepted but there is no such consensus on possession. If the former of these can find universal acceptance then it can provide a sound basis for progress on the latter: global de-alerting and 'virtual arsenals', for example, become more realistic propositions. Realpolitik tends to dictate that complete abandonment looks an Wilton Park Conference WP944 2 Nuclear Non-Proliferation at the Crossroads? December 2008 Page 2 of 17 unattractive option in the near term, and the perception that nuclear weapons have kept the peace remains entrenched in nuclear-armed states. The argument can be made that if nuclear weapons kept the peace in Europe they can also do so in Southeast Asia. Building on a shared set of beliefs about use may provide the first steps in dismantling those perceptions. 5. A great deal of what is feasible in nuclear non-proliferation is contingent on the US: an active role on Washington's part will be vital to progress. The Obama Administration, rather than drawing up a 'laundry list' of items to be pursued, might be better advised to undertake a thorough review of strategic policy; bold approaches of a clear strategic vision may lay the ground for positive developments. If abolition is to be taken seriously, then some difficult issues need to be thought through: what are the strategic implications of a possibly-protracted period of very low nuclear numbers? Is zero necessarily safer than low nuclear numbers? Does modernisation of nuclear weapons make zero more feasible rather than a more distant prospect? What if zero should prove unworkable – what fallback options can be considered? 6. Perhaps it is also time for more overt proliferation prevention capabilities to be developed, particularly if a serious effort to drive down nuclear numbers is to be made. Proliferators might choose to use nuclear weapons in the face of the overwhelming conventional capabilities of the US, and the absence of any nuclear deterrent capability may need to be compensated for. 7. In more immediate terms, to what extent will the Obama Administration differ from its predecessor? The new team will inherit the legacy of eight years of the Bush Administration's policy, and it seems likely that some of the latter's policies will be maintained, some will be disliked but kept nonetheless, while others will be jettisoned completely. In the first category will be the Proliferation Security Initiative, the international components of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership, a permanent Additional Protocol, and the existing elements of missile defence. The US-India nuclear deal is the outstanding policy in the second category; while the third category is likely to contain the Bush Administration's more trenchant rhetoric on arms control, a verifiable FMCT and the CTBT. Movement on the CTBT is a possibility, as the Wilton Park Conference WP944 3 Nuclear Non-Proliferation at the Crossroads? December 2008 Page 3 of 17 then President-elect Obama said he would approach the Senate on ratification as soon as possible, and Vice-President Biden and Secretary of State Clinton are also known supporters. 8. Strengthening the regime will probably be prominent, with greater weight placed on non-proliferation and disarmament and less on nuclear energy. The future policy on the 13 Steps is less clear, but a continuation of the commitment to deep reductions and de-alerting are to be expected. The 2010 NPT Review will receive strong rhetorical support from the Administration as will multilateral approaches to proliferation and disarmament. In this connection, it is noted that more than $50 billion is spent yearly on nuclear weapons, and relatively little on cooperative threat reduction. 9. Turning to the centres of proliferation concern, Iran’s nuclear programme is one of the oldest in the developing world, dating back to the Shah's regime of the 1970s. The programme was re-invigorated in the 1980s and accelerated in the 1990s, under Rafsanjani. Five facets of the programme stand out as decisive: firstly, factional politics are fundamental; secondly, scientific nuclear nationalism, or the sense of national pride in the achievement, is crucial, in addition to the desire to pursue nuclear energy, allowed under the NPT; thirdly, a wider nationalism linked to the idea of inalienable rights under the NPT is feeding public perceptions in Iran; fourthly, the Revolutionary Guards have become an increasingly powerful political factor; and fifthly the relationship with the US is a domestic issue in Iran and a tool in the hands of various factions. 10. The drivers of the programme tend to cluster around, first, a sense of encirclement and relative weakness, and a wish for regional power projection capabilities. The sense of threat comes largely from the encirclement by the US and its allies to the south, east and west of Iran, and the fear of regime change is a real one. The wish for power projection comes from an awareness of the region's strategic malaise and weakness and a sense that a nuclear capability will allow Iran to be the dominant actor in the area. Since 2005 some 13 other countries in the region also have expressed their desire for nuclear energy. Wilton Park Conference WP944 4 Nuclear Non-Proliferation at the Crossroads? December 2008 Page 4 of 17 11. For the international community, the policy of preventing Iran from acquiring uranium enrichment capability is not working. In a number of months it will have enough material for one nuclear weapon; this does not, of course, give a reliable deterrent, but it does attract attention. Having enough for one weapon is a key tipping point, but it is still important to be clear about what is meant by Iran having a ‘nuclear capability’: a latent weaponisation capability of having enriched uranium, or actually producing a bomb? The line between the two can be very thin.
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