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Planning Studies Supplemental Report Provost to Edgerton and Nilrem to Vermilion (PENV) Transmission Reinforcement Executive Summary In response to the Alberta Utilities Commission (Commission) Decision 22274-D01-2018 (Decision) regarding the AESO's Provost to Edgerton and Nilrem to Vermilion Needs Identification Document Application (2016 Application), the AESO has reassessed the need for transmission reinforcement in the PENV area based on the AESO’s recent load and generation forecast. This report presents results of the technical studies (2018 Planning Studies) conducted by the AESO to reassess the need for transmission reinforcement in the PENV area. The purpose of the 2018 Planning Studies was to: reassess both load serving and generation based need; confirm the generation integration capability in alignment with the AESO’s 2017 Long Term Transmission Plan (2017 LTP), to enable the Government of Alberta’s legislated target of 30% energy produced by renewable electricity generation by 2030;1 and validate the AESO’s preferred transmission development. The 2018 Planning Studies include: power flow studies under Category A and Category B contingency conditions for near term and long term study scenarios as well as for selected Category C3 contingency conditions for near term scenarios. Near term study scenarios include 2021 Winter Peak (WP), 2021 Summer Peak (SP) and 2021 Summer Light (SL) study scenarios. The long term study scenarios include 2037 WP, 2037 SP, and 2037 SL. The load serving capability assessment carried out in the 2016 Application remains valid. In addition, the need reassessment studies demonstrate that lines 749L and 7L50 are either overloaded in the near term in summer peak load conditions under conditions of low cogeneration levels in the Cold Lake area or loaded to 95% and above under multiple generation dispatch scenarios. The reliability criteria violations along 749L under Category B contingency conditions that occurred (2010- 2015) and continue to occur in the near term when the coincident summer peak load of seven substations2 exceeds 114 MW and these violations are independent of generation dispatch scenarios. In the long term, these violations are exacerbated as the load grows with time. In the long term, low voltage criteria violations and voltage collapse conditions are observed. The need reassessment was expanded by studying new generation scenarios to include the confirmed and future renewables in the system to compliment the generation capability studies included in the 2016 Application. Presently, the 7L50 path has limited capacity to connect any generation project as overloads under Category A conditions are anticipated to occur due to its limited thermal capacity. From a generation perspective and in the near term, high renewable generation output conditions, particularly along 7L50 or south of PENV lead to transmission congestion along 7L50 (Battle River 757S to Buffalo Creek 526S), 749L (Metiskow 648S to Edgerton 899S) and 7L701 (Battle River 757S to Strome 223S) under several PENV area Category B contingencies in addition to outages of the Eastern Alberta Transmission Line (EATL), 9L20 and 912L. The overloads on 7L50 and 7L749 reach as high as 126% for the loss of EATL. These overloads (without transmission reinforcement in the PENV area) will require mitigation through generation curtailment which 1 Described in the Amended Provost to Egerton and Nilrem to Vermilion Load and Generation Forecast, submitted under a separate cover 2 These substations (Killarney Lake 267S, Hayter 277S, Edgerton 899S, Briker 880S, Lloydminster 716S, Hill 751S and Kitscoty 706S) that lie along 749L and 7L749 path. March 2018 Page i Project No. 1781 Planning Studies Supplemental Report Provost to Edgerton and Nilrem to Vermilion (PENV) Transmission Reinforcement will exceed the threshold of the current 466 MW Most Severe Single Contingency (MSSC), which represents the most severe single contingency generator or supply loss on the Alberta interconnected electric system (AIES) that may occur as a result of either a generator trip, or the loss of a transmission line that subsequently leads to the simultaneous loss of generation. As more renewable generation is connected to the Central East Sub-region, the AESO anticipates that the PENV area will be subject to congestion under Category A conditions starting in 2022 or earlier and more lines in the PENV area will be congested over time. The Category A overload occurs even when all the renewable generation is located south of the PENV area. These thermal violations show the need for reinforcing the PENV transmission network. The AESO’s findings based on this reassessment show that the preferred transmission development described by the AESO in the 2016 Application (Preferred Transmission Development) continues to be required and remain the AESO’s preferred option to meet the need in this area for both load and generation over the planning horizon. The Preferred Transmission Development is flexible as it allows market participants to connect their projects anywhere along either of the proposed new PENV lines or at their respective terminus substations; it is scalable from 138 kV to 240 kV operation to maximize integration of new generation in the area. For example 300 MW along the Nilrem to Vermillion or 560 MW along the Provost to Edgerton section in steps to meet the growth in the respective areas in a timely manner; it provides a new hub (Drury 2007S substation) in the Vermilion area to enable connection of both load and generation projects in the area. The Drury substation also serves as a strong source substation that connects to the 240 kV network strengthening the supply to Lloydminster area in the east, Bonnyville area in the north and the Edmonton area to the west. In the long term, this Drury substation could be used to enhance the system capability for integration of additional load and generation in the area by terminating existing 144 kV lines 7L130, 7L117 and 7L129 into it in future as need arises. The AESO also considered the impact of a recently filed connection project NID for Transmission Enhancements in the Municipal Districts of Provost and Wainwright (Project 1782)3 on the Preferred Transmission Development, as this project proposes a 138 kV transmission line from Provost 545S to Hayter 277S substations (P-H line). The P-H line does not eliminate the need for transmission reinforcements in the PENV area, and in fact the 715L (Metiskow 648S to Provost 545S) becomes a bottle-neck under high load and/or generation conditions when the P-H line is included. The P-H line has a negligible effect on renewable integration in the larger PENV area. As a result of the P-H line (as part of Project 1782), there is an opportunity to further stage the Preferred Transmission Development. The AESO has determined that the Provost to Edgerton (P-E) line (the Edgerton Component of the Preferred Transmission Development) could be built in two stages as described below and shown in Figure 7-1 and Figure 7-2 of this report.: Stage 1: Build a 240 kV line from Hansman Lake to Killarney Lake tap (energized initially at 138 kV) – the southern portion of the preferred Provost to Edgerton line in the near term. This development helps to create an independent loop from Hansman Lake to Provost and back to Hansman Lake. It will serve loads on the Killarney Lake tap, Hayter and Provost, and supports surplus generation from the Bull Creek Wind facility as well as future wind additions east of the Provost to Killarney tap line segment. As part of Stage 1 development, the 240 kV line from Nilrem to vermilion is to be built and operated initially at 138 kV. 3 AUC Proceeding 23391. March 2018 Page ii Project No. 1781 Planning Studies Supplemental Report Provost to Edgerton and Nilrem to Vermilion (PENV) Transmission Reinforcement Stage 2: Build the northern portion of the 240 kV line from Killarney Lake tap to Edgerton, energized initially at 138 kV, subject to meeting the following milestone: o The AESO’s coincident summer aggregate peak load forecast reaching the existing capacity of the transmission line 749L (Edgerton 899S to the Killarney Lake 267S substation tap- point), which is approximately 83 MW, measured at the Edgerton 898S, Briker 880S, Lloydminster 716S, Hill 751S and Kitscoty 705S substation; or, o Construction commencing for generation projects that will connect along the transmission 749L path (from Hansman Lake 650S to Vermilion 710S) and that the AESO anticipates will give rise to congestion under Category A conditions on the transmission line 749L (Edgerton 899S to the Killarney Lake 267S substation tap-point ); or o The withdrawal or cancellation of FortisAlberta’s system access service request for AESO Project 1782. The Preferred Transmission Development is still required in the near term as it meets the near term need and the need over the 20 year planning horizon based on the current forecast. However, a milestone can be specified for the northern section of the P-E line (the Edgerton Component). The Preferred Transmission Development will be initially energized at 138/144 kV. This staged development of the Edgerton component will reduce initial capital cost while meeting the need along 7L749 path in an effective manner. The Preferred Transmission Development, when fully energized at 240 kV, would increase the local PENV generation integration capability along both lines up to 860 MW of new generation in the PENV area by providing a strong 240 kV collector system, and thus there has been no change in the PENV area renewable integration capability of the Preferred Transmission Development compared to the 2016 Application. March 2018 Page iii Project No. 1781 Planning Studies Supplemental Report Provost to Edgerton and Nilrem to Vermilion (PENV) Transmission Reinforcement Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Summary of Conclusions in the 2016 Application .....................................................................................
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