The Limits to Growth: the 30-Year Update
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PAPERBACK COVER SPINE 26.5MM Limits to Growth LIMITS TO GROWTH ‘NOT EVERYTHING BEARS REPETITION, BUT TRUTH DOES – especially when that truth is both denied by entrenched interests and verified by new information’ NB*** to match the bleed of “G” at spine fold on left side front cover HERMAN E. DALY former World Bank senior economist and professor, University of Maryland ‘It is time for the world to re-read Limits to Growth! The message of “h” of “Growth” on front cover BLEEDS OFF 1972 is more real and relevant in 2004, and we wasted 30 valuable years of action by misreading the message of the first book’ MATTHEW R. SIMMONS Limits to founder, Simmons & Company International, the world’s largest energy investment banking firm ‘If you only read one book … make this it!’ L. HUNTER LOVINS co-author, Natural Capitalism ‘An impressive sequel [that] shuns gloom and doom to be boldly pragmatic about the future’ THE 30-YEAR UPDATE Kirkus Reviews In 1972, Limits to Growth shocked the world and forever changed the global agenda by demonstrating that unchecked growth on our finite planet The trim cuts the letter, foredge. was leading the Earth towards ecological ‘overshoot’ and pending disaster. Growth The book went on to sell millions of copies and ignited a firestorm of THE 30-YEAR UPDATE controversy that burns hotter than ever in these days of soaring oil prices, wars for resources and human-induced climate change. This substantially revised, expanded and updated edition follows on from Limits to Growth and its sequel Beyond the Limits, which raised the alarm that we have already overshot the planet’s carrying capacity. Marshalling a vast array of new, hard data and more powerful computer . Randers modelling, and incorporating the latest thinking on sustainability, ecological Meadows Meadows footprinting and limits, this new book presents future overshoot scenarios and makes an even more urgent case for a rapid readjustment of the global economy towards a sustainable path. This is compelling and, indeed, essential reading for all concerned with our common future. & EARTHSCAN DONELLA MEADOWS was Adjunct Professor of Environmental Studies at Dartmouth College, USA. JORGEN RANDERS is a policy analyst and Donella Meadows • Jorgen Randers • Dennis Meadows President Emeritus at the Norwegian School of Management. DENNIS ISBN 978-1-84407-144-9 MEADOWS is Professor of Systems Management and Director of the Institute for Policy and Social Science Research, University of New Hampshire, USA. ,!7IB8E4-ahbeej! EARTHSCAN www.earthscan.co.uk LIMITS TO GROWTH LIMITS TO GROWTH The 30-Year Update Donella Meadows Jorgen Randers Dennis Meadows London • Sterling, VA First published by Earthscan in the UK in 2005 Reprinted 2006 Copyright © Dennis Meadows, 2004 All rights reserved ISBN-10: 1-84407-144-8 ISBN-13: 978-1-84407-144-9 Printed and bound in the UK by Bath Press Cover design by Andrew Corbett For a full list of publications please contact: Earthscan 8–12 Camden High Street London, NW1 0JH, UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7387 8558 Fax: +44 (0)20 7387 8998 Email: [email protected] Web: www.earthscan.co.uk Earthscan is an imprint of James & James (Science Publishers) Ltd and publishes in association with the International Institute for Environment and Development A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Printed on elemental chlorine-free paper Dedication Over the past three decades many people and organizations have helped us understand how limits to material growth will shape global futures. We ded- icate this volume to three individuals whose contributions were fundamental: Aurelio Peccei, founder of the Club of Rome, whose profound concern for the world and undying faith in humanity inspired us and many others to care about and address the prospects for humanity’s long-term future. Jay W. Forrester, professor emeritus of the Sloan School of Management at MIT and our teacher. He designed the prototype of the computer model we have used, and his profound systems insights have helped us understand the behaviors of economic and environmental systems. Finally, it is our sad honor to dedicate this book to its main author, Donella H. Meadows. Widely known as Dana, by all those who respected her and appreciated her work, she was a world-class thinker, writer, and social inno- vator. Her high standards for communication, ethics, and service still inspire and challenge us—and thousands of others. Much of the analysis and prose here are hers, but this book was completed after Dana’s death in February 2001. We intend that this edition will honor and advance her lifelong effort to inform the world’s citizens and coax them toward sustainability. Contents Authors’ Preface ix 1. Overshoot 1 2. The Driving Force: Exponential Growth 17 3. The Limits: Sources and Sinks 51 4. World3: The Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World 129 5. Back from Beyond the Limits: The Ozone Story 181 6. Technology, Markets, and Overshoot 203 7. Transitions to a Sustainable System 235 8. Tools for the Transition to Sustainability 265 Appendices 1. Changes from World3 to World3-03 285 2. Indicators of Human Welfare and Ecological Footprint 289 Endnotes 295 List of Tables and Figures with Sources 311 Index 325 Authors’ Preface Background This book — Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update — is the third edition in a series. The first text appeared in 1972.1 In 1992 we published the revised edi- tion, Beyond the Limits (BTL),2 where we discussed global developments over the first 20 years in the scenarios of LTG. This 30-year update presents the essential parts of our original analysis and summarizes some of the relevant data and the insights we have acquired over the past three decades. The project that produced LTG took place in the System Dynamics Group of the Sloan School of Management within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) from 1970 to 1972. Our project team used system dynamics theory and computer modeling to analyze the long-term causes and consequences of growth in the world’s population and material economy. We addressed questions such as: Are current policies leading to a sus- tainable future or to collapse? What can be done to create a human economy that provides sufficiently for all? We had been commissioned to examine these questions by the Club of Rome, an informal, international group of distinguished businessmen, statesmen, and scientists. The Volkswagen Foundation in Germany pro- vided the funding for our work. Dennis Meadows, then on the faculty at MIT, assembled and directed the following project team, which spent two years conducting the original study. Alison A. Anderson, PhD (USA) Erich K.O. Zahn, PhD (Germany) Ilyas Bayar (Turkey) Jay M. Anderson, PhD (USA) Farhad Hakimzadeh (Iran) William W. Behrens III, PhD (USA) Judith A. Machen (USA) Steffen Harbordt, PhD (Germany) Donella H. Meadows, PhD (USA) Peter Milling, PhD (Germany) Nirmala S. Murthy (India) Roger F. Naill, PhD (USA) Jorgen Randers, PhD (Norway) Stephen Schantzis (USA) John A. Seeger, PhD (USA) Marilyn Williams (USA) ix x Authors’ Preface A major foundation of our project was the “World3” computer model, which we constructed to help us integrate data and theories related to growth.3 With the model we can produce scenarios of world development that are internally consistent. In the first edition of LTG we published and analyzed 12 scenarios from World3 that showed different possible patterns of world development over the two centuries from 1900 to 2100. BTL pre- sented 14 scenarios from a slightly updated version of World3. LTG became a best seller in several countries, eventually being translated into about 30 languages. BTL appeared in many languages and is widely used as a university text. 1972: The Limits to Growth The Limits to Growth (LTG) reported that global ecological constraints (related to resource use and emissions) would have significant influence on global developments in the twenty-first century. LTG warned that humanity might have to divert much capital and manpower to battle these constraints—possibly so much that the average quality of life would decline sometime during the twenty-first century. Our book did not specify exactly what resource scarcity or what emission type might end growth by requiring more capital than was available—simply because such detailed predictions can not be made on a scientific basis in the huge and complex population–economy–environment system that constitutes our world. LTG pleaded for profound, proactive, societal innovation through tech- nological, cultural, and institutional change in order to avoid an increase in the ecological footprint of humanity beyond the carrying capacity of planet Earth. Although the global challenge was presented as grave, the tone of LTG was optimistic, stressing again and again how much one could reduce the damage caused by approaching (or exceeding) global ecological limits if early action were taken. The 12 World3 scenarios in LTG illustrate how growth in population and natural resource use interacts with a variety of limits. In reality limits to growth appear in many forms. In our analysis we focused principally on the planet’s physical limits, in the form of depletable natural resources and the Authors’ Preface xi finite capacity of the earth to absorb emissions from industry and agricul- ture. In every realistic scenario we found that these limits force an end to physical growth in World3 sometime during the twenty-first century. Our analysis did not foresee abrupt limits—absent one day, totally binding the next. In our scenarios the expansion of population and physical capital gradually forces humanity to divert more and more capital to cope with the problems arising from a combination of constraints. Eventually so much cap- ital is diverted to solving these problems that it becomes impossible to sustain further growth in industrial output.